# Ovintiv (OVV) formerly Encana (ECA)



## Jungle

What does everyone think of ECA? They stock price has really come down. They beat estimates 2 weeks ago. Dividend is around 3.16% right now. price $23.93. P/E seems REALLY high at 48?? This is from google finance.


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## Homerhomer

I have made a stupid move of buying it last week after the earnings and am down 20% or so by now (thankfully small lot).

Encana will go together with natural gas, if you have patience with a yield of over 3% you will do well....... eventually ;-).

In the current market right now you may see this stock in teens in no time though ;-)

PE is high because the earnings are very low, with increase of NG prices so will the earnings.

Patience......


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## Jungle

I see. It's seems weird that the PE is so high. And it has really taken a hammering. 

You can always dca down a couple times with a little bit.


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## daddybigbucks

Homerhomer said:


> Patience......


i'm of the same belief as well and i bought some more today.
NG is completely out of favour but Encana has such a monoply on the supply here.
its not the greatest run company and very wasteful but i think it is fairly safe that it cant drop much lower than $21.
And if NG drifts higher, I can see this easily hitting $40.


My td account say the p/e is 26. i didnt double check the number though.


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## Jungle

Yea I don't think google has the right p/e. But I did notice the cut their dividend the when the market crashed in 08.


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## daddybigbucks

Jungle said:


> Yea I don't think google has the right p/e. But I did notice the cut their dividend the when the market crashed in 08.


i dont think they ever cut their dividend.

i wasnt too big on encana when it first came on the scene because the dividend was so low but it keeps getting better.

are you thinking about the split from cenovus?
we still got the same dividend but half came from encana and half came from cenovus from our new shares.


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## Homerhomer

Jungle said:


> But I did notice the cut their dividend the when the market crashed in 08.


No, daddybigbusk is correct, there was no dividend cut, encana spun off cenouvus and the dividend was divided between the two.


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## martinv

Bought some ECA today at $23.50 and then it promptly dropped to $23.15, of course!
In for the long term though.


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## Jungle

Ok guys I was looking at the google chart and assumed they cut when the market crashed! 

Thank you, good to know they did not cut the dividend.


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## bloschuk

good company to work for


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## Sampson

Yeah, that's what everyone says, and Cenovus too.

But maybe they treat their employees too well, and hence investors are hurt


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## daddybigbucks

Sampson said:


> Yeah, that's what everyone says, and Cenovus too.
> 
> But maybe they treat their employees too well, and hence investors are hurt


yes sir and that is why i said the company isn't run that well.

I knew an engineer there that got stressed out, fought with their boss and people they worked with. Encana transfered them around trying to find the right fix. All the while they are claiming days and days off. Then finally when they didnt show up for work for a couple days and never called in. They finally fired them with a 1 year salary as bonus.
Then wouldnt you know it, they get a job at Cenovus 6 months later.

I like Encana but its run like the government and could be making alot more profits than they are.


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## martinv

Up 8% since I bought on Monday.
Not bad in such a market turmoil.


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## Sampson

daddybigbucks said:


> I like Encana but its run like the government and could be making alot more profits than they are.


I don't necessarily agree with this. I think their management tries hard to keep their employees happy with fantastic benefits and staff appreciation events, whether this results in higher productivity is debatable.

I think Encana's biggest problems have revolved around how well they themselves have reduced the cost to extract gas. I doubt anyone could have predicted how much and how cheap shale gas could be had.

At some point, inventories will/must drop, nat gas will increase, and Encana, Alberta, and heavy nat gas compnaies will surely benefit. But I think most are predicting this is still a long long ways away - the stock price will probably flat line until then.


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## zylon

Jungle said:


> What does everyone think of ECA? ...


Do you still have your heart set on ECA, or would you entertain thoughts of an alternative?

I'm thinking along the lines of BMO Junior Gas Index ETF (ZJN).

Since inception (May 19, 2010) ZJN has returned +42% while ECA has returned -18% (not including dividends).

It should be noted that ZJN is a thin trader (5,800 shares today) so it may not be easy to get in or out at the price you want.

ZJN live chart (values will change daily)


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## drvrage

*Encana*

Hi Guys,

First post! Just found this forum.

I like Encana in principle, but as others have stated, it value lies strictly in the price of Gas. Shale gas is a relatively new entry. In a world of supply meets demand in what we call price, this is a game changer. There is now too much supply, and while encana is one of the major in terms of overall reserves, they are not that dominant in terms of supplying the actual market demand.

I think the only way to play this is to wait and see what developments arise on the demand side. If we see mass development of gas powered fleet vehicles, gas fired electricity, and most importantly Liquified Natural gas (LNG) at proposed terminals like Kitimat, then they deliver product to Asian markets where gas fetches a much higher price. AT current levels, high enough to cover the cost of piping, liquefying and transporting to a Chinese terminal and have enough left over for a profit. Plus as demmand rises, prices here will rise as well.

This is IMHO the key. Your buying Encana tells me that you think they can get to Asia given the 50 year glut we have for domestic consumption.

The next question is price. Personally, I'm a cheap ******* and I don't like the P/E. Given the possibility for expansion and steady domestic demand (seasonality aside) I would think it considerable in the 10-15x earning range at most unless we see progress on the Pacific RIM advantage. Then I could go as high as 17x to buy and anything over 25 is a sell. My problem is that their P/E ratio looks like vestigial residue from the pre-shale days, and I don't believe it justified. I'm also negative on the P/E price to jump in given the disproportionate pay for poor performance. 


Just my 2 cents....


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## dubmac

As drvage & Sampson have mentioned, shale gas is important to ECA's success. I read the G&M TOday - apparently, ECA & Talisman are both major producers of shale gas in the US - that is why I'm interested in ECA. The article mentions that some 45% of US gas could come from these unconventional gas source (Shale gas) in the next 25 yrs....but..the gas oversupply and the environmental concerns weigh heavily on any growth prospects.


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## Abha

Anyone considering this? 

I don't imagine the stock going any more down but I suppose some people caught long in this have been saying that since the mid to low 20's.

I might take a starter position on another big down day in the next few weeks.


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## dubmac

G&M article - Insiders have been buying ECA shares - average price 24.13.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...iple-insider-buying-at-encana/article2201792/

(even the directors haave had some troubles finding the low points in the stock..)


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## PMREdmonton

I think it represents good value but you may have to wait 2 to 3 years for capital gains. This is a good stock for non-registered accounts because of the dividend yield. 

Natural gas price will increase because many of the players are decreasing investment in drilling new wells because of the low returns. The other thing that will help is entrepreneurs will begin to take advantage of the tremendous value in nat gas versus oil prices. The two major changes I see happening are the development of nat gas powerplants (much cheaper and cleaner than coal and much safer than nuclear) and trucking fleets will invest in nat gas refill stations for their city fleets.

I think nat gas goes back up to $12-15 and ECA starts printing money again in the next 5 years.

Disclosure: I have no money in ECA but plan to buy in the next couple of weeks as I am still trying to get my first non-registered account going.


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## humble_pie

i'm a big admirer of INK insider's ted dixon. There's another CFA on his team. Together they publish a great service.

worth getting a tdw account just for the full subscription to this one service alone. The abbreviated teaser INK puts out in the internet as canadianinsider dot com is nothing like the real thing, which is fairly expensive. The big green offers the real thing for free to all its clients ...

re encana, dixon also mentions widespread recent insider buying in all cheap energy sectors. Not surprising. Also rumbling: uranium stocks.

in gas chesapeake energy is worth a good look imho.


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## KaeJS

Seems like a decent buy at these levels.

nice yield at 3.75%.

Dividends for 10 years.

I agree with PMR, good investment if you think Nat Gas is going to come back a little bit.


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## Abha

Regardless this is a great stock to park money in. It's a big cap dividend payer.

Sure there's a double dip risk but I think most of the downside is already baked into this stock.


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## KaeJS

Abha,

That's what 'scares' me with this one. It could still fall $5 from here if things go a bit sour again (which is likely, imo) Not a huge deal if you are investing for the longer term, but shorter term could be a rocky road.


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## Toronto.gal

I sold my ECA shares some months ago in the $30's and have been wondering when to buy them back? Should have bought below $20, but still $21 is not bad IMO.

Anyone owns EP shares?
http://business.financialpost.com/2...-set-to-buy-el-paso-corp-in-38-billiion-deal/


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## dubmac

humble_pie said:


> i'm a big admirer of INK insider's ted dixon. There's another CFA on his team. Together they publish a great service.
> 
> worth getting a tdw account just for the full subscription to this one service alone. The abbreviated teaser INK puts out in the internet as canadianinsider dot com is nothing like the real thing, which is fairly expensive. The big green offers the real thing for free to all its clients ...
> 
> re encana, dixon also mentions widespread recent insider buying in all cheap energy sectors. Not surprising. Also rumbling: uranium stocks.
> 
> in gas chesapeake energy is worth a good look imho.


HP..prithee...How do I use the INK service? I do have access to the INK service offered by tdw, but when I open the file and see what's inside, it's all too much for this simple mind of mine! What specific information does one look for? Surely a large purchase (or sell) by a Co. director is a sign of confidence, but does the INK service offer more than list dates, and volumes and prices of past purchases?

confused..as usual..


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## zylon

Toronto.gal said:


> I sold my ECA shares some months ago in the $30's and have been wondering when to buy them back?


Hi *T-O.gal*

At the risk of incurring your wrath by side-stepping your rhetorical question, I will say that if I was looking for a nat gas pure play I would buy ZJN-t. It's not for traders however, as it trades very few shares per day, but for buy and hope it would be a good choice. IMO

You may have seen my previous post upthread.
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=80214&postcount=15

Some of my gas/oil combo holdings include:


Code:


           gas%   oil%     div yield %
ERF        56      44        8.0
OGF.UN     40      60        8.5  (closed end fund)
PGF        50      50        8.3
PWT        37      63        6.5
VSN    nat gas pipeline      6.7

data may be slightly out of date


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## Toronto.gal

Thanks so much for the suggestion Zylon, I appreciate it & will do my homework on it. 

I had bought ECA to hold long term, not to trade, however, I ended up selling it in response to market conditions.


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## humble_pie

black mac - i took a look at most of the divisions of INK that td offers before answering you & noticed that all of these are even better than i had previously believed. Truly they (dixon & his colleague) are applying advanced metrics to the raw data & coming up with interpretations that are always worth checking out imho.

basic are the individual company reports. You get these in Markets & Research. I happened to open power corp & it had an insider profile that told me quite a lot. Four insiders were selling heavily in january & february 2011, all in the 27 & 28 dollar range. All 4 were exercising their stock options which are part of their pay packages. The options' strike price was in the $17 range, so each made a profit of about $10 on each share. Paul desmarais himself disposed of 800,000 shares in this fashion. Hello, Occupy Montreal !! that is a profit for desmarais of $8 million on that one single manoeuvre alone.

after january/february 2011, nothing happened. Nobody said boo. Nobody bought. Nobody sold, although the shares promptly began to sink like stones. Although some analysts are currently touting POW for its dividend yield, it appears that the insiders themselves are sitting there like silent sphinxes in the desert, waiting for the milieu to improve before they resume buying.

moving on, INK also offers a Morning Insider report (this is a daily) which focuses on an individual company that is undergoing a strong pronounced spate of insider transactions.

plus they offer Market Insider, which contains daily marker reports (these are early or unverified reports) and somewhere in INK the tdw client can find 60-day net insider trading reports for companies with significant insider activity, presented both by dollar amount & by no. of shares bought/sold. These are fast & easy to read.

and lastly, INK offers Sector Insider reports for 10 canadian investment sectors. I flipped open the health services report & was pleasantly surprised to see how well-done it was. Hint: insiders are net buying canadian heath care companies these days, although we have precious few of them.

INK gets all of its information from sedi.ca, & therefore the same errors that appear in sedi show up in the INK reports. These errors are caused by insiders who carelessly file their reports, or who file late or who don't file at all. There's nothing that can be done about this problem. It makes reading the insider reportage all the more fun, one knows there is always a tiny edge that could be wrong, so one has to adjust a bit.

sedi.ca itself is impossibly difficult to navigate. What ted dixon has done with his INK service is rearrange the data in easy-to-read format, plus he's offering INK's own commentaries, which imho are insightful & valuable.


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## dubmac

thanx HP...
I"m also trying to sort out some of the other ancillary information/charts/ratios that the TDW provides to account holders..there's so much, seems it's hard to separate the "wheat from the chafe" ..rather - what's useful from not useful from an investor's pov.


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## Jungle

q3 Net earnings down 500 million over last year?  http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5497048/encana-q3-net-earnings-down


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## Banalanal

Anybody buying Encana? Near its 52 week low. Nice dividend. High insider buying. Many good reasons to be bullish on natural gas over the coming years. It's somewhere in the vicinity of a p/e of 50-60. Any thoughts on that?


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## HaroldCrump

Question for those into Encana or NatGas in general : how much of the upside of NG is predicated on the success of shale fracking?

Conversely, how much downside is baked into NG and related equity prices for the possibility that all governments will put a stop to fracking?


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## Banalanal

I was thinking the restriction of fracking would help ECA as NG supply and reserves would be reduced driving up prices...


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## hboy43

Banalanal said:


> Anybody buying Encana? Near its 52 week low. Nice dividend. High insider buying. Many good reasons to be bullish on natural gas over the coming years. It's somewhere in the vicinity of a p/e of 50-60. Any thoughts on that?


1000 today.

hboy43


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## KaeJS

That's a pretty damn high PE, but the stock looks attractive here.

I might be in for 100 soon if I can scrounge up some cash.


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## dubmac

I'd like to get me more at any point under 19


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## Betzy

hboy43 said:


> 1000 today.
> 
> hboy43


Wow nice to have that cash reserve! Maybe a leap option to cover as many shares without the cash...Just how big are my... is the question.


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## Dmoney

Bumping up ECA.... Considering purchasing 800 sometime next week. I'm wondering how far it has left to fall? One option I'm considering is buying 2014 puts at 17 ($4) so my max loss is about $6, roughly 1/3. I've then got two years to write covered calls to make that $6 back, and hopefully see some price appreciation.

Ideally would look something like this

Sell Jan 2012 $20 calls for ~$0.60 (6% price appreciation, 3% premium)
Sell Feb 2012 $xx calls for $0.30+ (roll each call aiming for 5-10% monthly appreciation and whatever premium I can get)

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I'm thinking the long put will retain its value unless the stock rockets upwards. If ECA gets too expensive I will get assigned and can sell the put at a loss, offset by my gain on the stock and call writing. 

If ECA falls, my put rises in value and I'll continue writing calls on the way down. 

Any thoughts?


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## doctrine

Considering most of their gas is still being sold at hedges of $4-6 mmbtu with a market price of $3-$3.5 that could possibly go lower, I would say that their earnings will certainly still drop.


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## Dmoney

To what extent is that priced in?


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## daddybigbucks

natural gas has been so low for so long. I think they are the bottom line hedging.

Its like getting a fixed rate for your mortgage. Even though you can get 3.8% on a short term variable, you will be paying upwards of 5% for a 5 year fixed.

Alot of companies know they need nat gas so they pay a higher buck and lock it in long term at a higher rate.

i cant see ECA going much lower but i think i said that at $22 as well. But i have never sold a ECA stock in my life, always bought.


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## Gunstar

Encana is a fairly large customer of ours.... everything that has been communicated to us thus far is looking fairly positive for next year.

I got in for 50 shares at $19 last week, so lets see how this goes.


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## blin10

load up couple hundred shares at 18.67, divi is decent I can wait it out


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## al42

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/artic...5-million-deal-buy-troubled-wyoming-gas-field


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## Betzy

Oh boy, that doesn't sound too good, have to wait and see what final outcome to this might be...


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## newbie

hboy43 said:


> 1000 today.
> 
> hboy43


hboy
how long r u planning to hold eca?
i trade Ng and i am sure u know that march exit rate will hover 1.8/2 tcf on the ground.
i have puts on CHK not eca .
curious as to what r u thinking here?


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## hboy43

newbie said:


> hboy
> how long r u planning to hold eca?
> i trade Ng and i am sure u know that march exit rate will hover 1.8/2 tcf on the ground.
> i have puts on CHK not eca .
> curious as to what r u thinking here?


I am thinking that natural gas sells for about 1/5 on an energy content basis that oil does. This cannot last forever. I am not a chemist but I imagine that many plants that use oil as a feedstock can switch to gas. Really energy arbitrage. So I am hoping I am buying low to one day sell high.

As to how long I might hold, well I have had some postions now for about 15 years, say SNC and MX for example. I don't expect I will often sell any holding to zero. If it does well and gets weighty in my portfolio, I will trim back, if it continues to head down, I will add as it is well under 5% of the portfolio.

I also picked up another 1100 shares about a buck cheaper/sh than the first tranche.

hboy43


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## newbie

hboy43 said:


> I am thinking that natural gas sells for about 1/5 on an energy content basis that oil does. This cannot last forever. I am not a chemist but I imagine that many plants that use oil as a feedstock can switch to gas. Really energy arbitrage. So I am hoping I am buying low to one day sell high.
> 
> As to how long I might hold, well I have had some postions now for about 15 years, say SNC and MX for example. I don't expect I will often sell any holding to zero. If it does well and gets weighty in my portfolio, I will trim back, if it continues to head down, I will add as it is well under 5% of the portfolio.
> 
> I also picked up another 1100 shares about a buck cheaper/sh than the first tranche.
> 
> hboy43


sure
i can see that u r a very long term trader then
why not load on oil plays then H?


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## hboy43

newbie said:


> sure
> i can see that u r a very long term trader then
> why not load on oil plays then H?


I believe at about 10% of my net worth, oil is "loaded on." Much more would I believe start tipping me away from the realm of investor and into the realm of speculator.

Some 30 years ago, my mentor and I were troubleshooting some piece of electronic gear and I said something to the effect of "the voltage at that point SHOULD be 12 volts". He replied with "I know it should be, but is it?"

I agree, if I understand your point, that oil should continue to get scarcer, and thus more valuable long term. The question is will the future actually unfold this way? Who knows? I have plenty of SU as my major oil play. I also have HSE which is oil and to a lessor extent gas. I figured with ECA at about half it's 52 week high, and gas at almost historical lows, plus with the thermodynamic aspect discussed previously, it is a reasonable time to buy gas in the form of ECA.

I make no predictions that the individual components of my portfolio will make money in either the short or long term. I however have great confidence that the portfolio in the aggregate over a suitably long time frame, will provide a positive return. I believe that this is the best I can do as an investor.

hboy43


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## KaeJS

hboy, I agree with what you've said.

I also hold SU and ECA. However, I just wanted to compliment on how humble your posts always are. (Not the humble_pie kind, though )


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## newbie

hboy43 said:


> I believe at about 10% of my net worth, oil is "loaded on." Much more would I believe start tipping me away from the realm of investor and into the realm of speculator.
> 
> Some 30 years ago, my mentor and I were troubleshooting some piece of electronic gear and I said something to the effect of "the voltage at that point SHOULD be 12 volts". He replied with "I know it should be, but is it?"
> 
> I agree, if I understand your point, that oil should continue to get scarcer, and thus more valuable long term. The question is will the future actually unfold this way? Who knows? I have plenty of SU as my major oil play. I also have HSE which is oil and to a lessor extent gas. I figured with ECA at about half it's 52 week high, and gas at almost historical lows, plus with the thermodynamic aspect discussed previously, it is a reasonable time to buy gas in the form of ECA.
> 
> I make no predictions that the individual components of my portfolio will make money in either the short or long term. I however have great confidence that the portfolio in the aggregate over a suitably long time frame, will provide a positive return. I believe that this is the best I can do as an investor.
> 
> hboy43


H
first off thks for the very to the point and polite reply.
as u mentioned scarcity is the word and global and geopolitical reasons to hold oil plays are very suitable.
at one point i think eca was trading at 34 /38 bux i cant even remember when.
i dont think NG will see any good year in 2012 and therefore the stocks go with it.
i think CHK and ECA reduced their hedging programs and i believe they will unhedge even more as we go along.
u have not mentioned CVE or PBR , and i seee extreme potential for those companies and maybe u already hold them.
ur time frame being long term makes ur startegy a perfect strategy IMO also.
as an investor u could not be better off.
as a trader i have to trade .
cut losses when needed and take profits based on my targets and mkt fluctuations.
happy new year

by the way u know that i do not trade for as long as u do but the experience has been rewarding even at times that i lost a lot of money.
u cant always win and the learning curve costs money.


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## dubmac

Not really related to the post, but I just did some research on ECA and it's price/book ratio (P/B ratio) is less than 1....
is it a value trap, or a diamond in the rough?
(I bought 100 sh about 3 mo's ago at 19.50 & they haven't change much)


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## KaeJS

I bought 100 at $19.95.

I don't think its a value trap or a diamond in the rough. I think its a good entry point for a longer term hold.

I think their earnings have been shot lately due to the price of NatGas.

P/E is high, P/B is low. But it will all get straightened out.

They only made $0.16/share last quarter and paid out $0.20, which sort of worries me, but I'm not worried enough to sell it.

In 2010, 2009, 2008 and 2007, the EPS was significantly higher than the Dividends paid out.

In 2008, they had a diluted EPS of 7.91 and paid 1.60 in dividends.

Even not long ago in 2010, diluted EPS of 2.03 and dividends of 0.80.

2011 was just a bad year, and probably 2012, too.


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## Toronto.gal

KaeJS said:


> 2011 was just a bad year....


It had started on a very good note, however, when in February, a $5+ billion joint venture with PetroChina had been announced, but later in June, such deal collapsed.

From $34+ in March/2011 to $19+ Jan.2012. Good sale IMO!


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## Spidey

It's shaping up to be a warm winter. I'm holding some ECA but still not willing to add at this point. To me a much safer play on nat gas would be a company that has some oil, as well. I have my eye on NAE. 

However, if the price of ECA dips below $18, I may take a bit of a fly on it.


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## gibor365

Looks like ECA has strong support in $18.70 area. On other hand in August ECA also had strong support in $23 area.... that also below BV


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## gibor365

hboy43 said:


> I have plenty of SU as my major oil play. I also have HSE which is oil and to a lessor extent gas. I figured with ECA at about half it's 52 week high, and gas at almost historical lows, plus with the thermodynamic aspect discussed previously, it is a reasonable time to buy gas in the form of ECA.
> 
> hboy43


just wondering why ECA and not for example ERF or BTE that have better fundamentals?


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## KaeJS

gibor said:


> just wondering why ECA and not for example ERF or BTE that have better fundamentals?


Look at the price of BTE....


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Look at the price of BTE....


Agree that BTE is too expensive, but ERF performance close to ECA


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## KaeJS

I want BTE, but refuse to buy. $58? Give me a break.

I'll bite at $50


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## gibor365

ECA dropped another 1.5% (closed $18.86) and practically on 52 weeks low. Anyone buying?


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## KaeJS

^ This showed up as a Lagger in my portfolio today.

I will only buy more under $18.

The company is going through a rough time - no doubt.

But, I think its a great value play if you believe in natgas and have a longer horizon.


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## daddybigbucks

anyone see a dividend cut on the horizon?


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## KaeJS

^ I don't think so. They did poorly in 2011, but.. they did well in subsequent years. It's not as if they are losing money.

Last quarter EPS was 0.16, dividend was 0.20. So... it's not so bad.

They just aren't exactly making money and keeping it. They are distributing all the money they make to shareholders.


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## HaroldCrump

KaeJS said:


> They did poorly in 2011, but.. they did well in subsequent years.


How did you know? Did you time travel, _Back to the Future_ style?


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## KaeJS

HaroldCrump said:


> How did you know? Did you time travel, _Back to the Future_ style?


Hahaha. 

Sorry, I meant to say previous years. 

I need more sleep


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## humble_pie

folks are stumped over what to buy in tfsa.
i might buy some encana LEAPs in tfsa.
then in margin i might sell short-term eca options at higher strikes.

this is messy but federal rules don't allow selling short options against long options in reg'd accounts.
messy or not, these split spreads are likely to earn $$ for me in previous years


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## doctrine

Natural gas is going lower and lower. Price spread between NA and Asia is quite amazing though. I just wouldn't buy Encana unless Nat gas starts going up. Because it could go lower.


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## humble_pie

everything is running backwards faster & faster, said Alice to the other guests at the tea table.

subsequent years are really previous years when you look in the mirror, said the dormouse in the teapot.

dormouse you are starting to make sense at last, said the March Hare, carefully placing a generous slice of cherry cake inside the teapot. Here, he said, this is a cake to celebrate the past & the future of relative spacetime.

thank you, said the dormouse. You can all understand, i hope, that if the price of gas goes down in the subsequent future why then it will go up in the previous past.

time is cumulative for persons stuffed inside black holes, observed the Mad Hatter.

dormouse ! cried Alice, you are so lovable once you stop rabbitting on about europe.








, said the dormouse.

he just told us that his hungarian great-great-uncle was a distant 14th cousin of einstein, explained the March Hare.

i did not, said the dormouse. What i said was that any way you time it, gas is going to make you happy.


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> ECA dropped another 1.5% (closed $18.86) and practically on 52 weeks low. Anyone buying?


In fact, it reached the 52 week low of $18.15 at 11 a.m. today; down around 7% since Monday. Not buying, but will trade it.

Not surprisingly, NAE announced a dividend cut yesterday.

LOL HP.


----------



## blin10

might not be a bad play for people who can hold it for a while while getting 4.5% divi


----------



## Homerhomer

This one is getting quite intersting, it was my worst purchase last year but I have faith in it and can hold it for long term no problem, I also like to buy stuff that everyone hates and the nat gas being at a decade low makes it appealing, the quesiton would be with so much supply will it go much lower, and can Encana withstand long period of even lower prices without dividend cut. Price to earnings valuations are still high but with just about everything else peaking this area may be appealing.

Have to sleep on it.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Does anyone know at what price point for NG, most of the large Canadian producers will become unviable, including ECA?

They must have price hedging and long term contracts, but at some point, the depressed NG prices must be hurting their top and bottom lines.


----------



## al42

HaroldCrump said:


> Does anyone know at what price point for NG, most of the large Canadian producers will become unviable, including ECA?
> 
> They must have price hedging and long term contracts, but at some point, the depressed NG prices must be hurting their top and bottom lines.


I think I heard the $2.50 range is the break even point for the lower cost producers. We have to be getting close to a point now where they will not be able to keep the drills turning!!


----------



## daddybigbucks

al42 said:


> I think I heard the $2.50 range is the break even point for the lower cost producers. We have to be getting close to a point now where they will not be able to keep the drills turning!!


you guys act like you havent been around the block..

the drills stop turning so the smaller companies go under and then there is a bigger demand for natural gas so the bigger companies get bigger.

Doom and gloom is a GOOD thing for an investor.
i would have no problem buying more encana but too many other plays out there that are more interesting.


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> might not be a bad play for people who can hold it for a while while getting 4.5% divi


what is ur "while" and how much capital are u interested in placing on ECA?
now u got me curious.
do u actually know why ECA is trading below 2009 lows?
the Ng game may not be the right one for u sir.
unless u r going to try to flip pennies here
i have puts on CHK FYI


----------



## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> In fact, it reached the 52 week low of $18.15 at 11 a.m. today; down around 7% since Monday. Not buying, but will trade it.
> 
> Not surprisingly, NAE announced a dividend cut yesterday.
> 
> LOL HP.


that is my T.Gal
trade it like a beast 
whats up with TLM ? any trading on it?


----------



## gibor365

Don't you think that ECA pattern reminds DAY's last year?! Maybe Chinese shorting ECA in order to buy it cheap


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> Don't you think that ECA pattern reminds DAY's last year?! Maybe Chinese shorting ECA in order to buy it cheap


the chinese deal went south last year with ECA as far as i know.
the only reason the chinese wanted in was to learn the fracking technique from a giant E& P company.
.cant remember all the reasons behind the no go but i dont see that being the reason.
ECA and CHK amongst many other Ng producers , reduced their hedging program significantly.
actually , the only reason why the SP price is not lower is exactly due to their hedging programs.
just my .0002 cents .
i will go no further into details of NG since i occasionalyy trade it.
the mkt is extremely volatile and manipulated by Centaurus and other large hedge funds.
this guys are having trouble themselves in making money this last year.
the bleeding on NG prices may briefly pause but a 20 year old trendline may soon show its ugly head with an YOY overhang of 600 BCF as we speak


----------



## Toronto.gal

newbie said:


> trade it like a beast
> whats up with TLM ? any trading on it?


Yes, I have become a trading beast. 

TLM continues to be a good trading stock; dipped below $12. 

ECA is now below $18.


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> what is ur "while" and how much capital are u interested in placing on ECA?
> now u got me curious.
> do u actually know why ECA is trading below 2009 lows?
> the Ng game may not be the right one for u sir.
> unless u r going to try to flip pennies here
> i have puts on CHK FYI


i'm not buying anything yet, but it's shorted like crazy and with any slight NG correction it can pop nicely, not to mention decent dividend


----------



## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> Yes, I have become a trading beast.
> 
> TLM continues to be a good trading stock; dipped below $12.
> 
> ECA is now below $18.


both will dip further


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> i'm not buying anything yet, but it's shorted like crazy and with any slight NG correction it can pop nicely, not to mention decent dividend


for a trader u really need to go and learn some more.
TRP is massively shorted, what makes u think ECA is also heavily shorted.
do u have data to prove ur point?
if so post it.
by the way Blin ECA ia trading at lowest since 2007.
they must be shorting it for 4 years by now lol.
my chart does show me.


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> *for a trader u really need to go and learn some more.*
> TRP is massively shorted, what makes u think ECA is also heavily shorted.
> do u have data to prove ur point?
> if so post it.
> by the way Blin ECA ia trading at lowest since 2007.
> they must be shorting it for 4 years by now lol.
> my chart does show me.


coming from a guy who shorted 200k in a bull market period (it might be short but still, if you knew anything about trading you would cover and go other way) lol... eca was around 35$ just 6 months ago when NG was already dirt cheap, what 4 years are you talking about? and I don't need to prove anything to you, I'm feeling bad wasting time right now replying to you


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> coming from a guy who shorted 200k in a bull market period (it might be short but still, if you knew anything about trading you would cover and go other way) lol... eca was around 35$ just 6 months ago when NG was already dirt cheap, what 4 years are you talking about? and I don't need to prove anything to you, I'm feeling bad wasting time right now replying to you


heheheh 
i luv when people get angry and dont back up their data.
go ahead load up on ECA , and wait for ur 35 bux.
natural gas trading is way over ur head buddy.
i dont enter a trade to lose my friend.
there was a time that i really lost a lot of money and i admit it.
that is my last post to u.
keep it up sport


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> heheheh
> i luv when people get angry and dont back up their data.
> go ahead load up on ECA , and wait for ur 35 bux.
> natural gas trading is way over ur head buddy.
> i dont enter a trade to lose my friend.
> there was a time that i really lost a lot of money and i admit it.
> that is my last post to u.
> keep it up sport


no one is getting angry, you just can't read properly.... I never said I will load it up or anything like that, I said if someone needs a decent dividend stock and has time to hold it, it MIGHT not be a bad play... it won't make it to 35 any time soon, but it can easily go up 5$ with any slight positive news... and why would I waist time to back up anything to you? I don't do anything for free


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> no one is getting angry, you just can't read properly.... I never said I will load it up or anything like that, I said if someone needs a decent dividend stock and has time to hold it, it MIGHT not be a bad play... it won't make it to 35 any time soon, but it can easily go up 5$ with any slight positive news... and why would I waist time to back up anything to you? I don't do anything for free


well
since u r so smart in trading do u have any idea what the NG price handle for fall we have right now ?
if you at least tell me what ECA hedging prices for 2012 are i will try and havee a conversation with you
atm the YOY surplus is at least 660 BCF .
what do ya know he.
u talk too much and prove nothing buddy.
the NG business really is out of ur league.
Centaurus needs ya lol

by the way the trading volume today is so heavy lol that my eyes cant keep up with my daytrading.
have u lost money yet or are u going to brag as to how much u have made.
u r really an excitement for my day


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> well
> since u r so smart in trading do u have any idea what the NG price handle for fall we have right now ?
> if you at least tell me what ECA hedging prices for 2012 are i will try and havee a conversation with you
> atm the YOY surplus is at least 660 BCF .
> what do ya know he.
> u talk too much and prove nothing buddy.
> the NG business really is out of ur league.
> Centaurus needs ya lol


you also proving your china/italian data everywhere but markets ain't going down... stocks most of the time are detached from data, take any stock for the past month did data of the companies/industry change? why are they swinging? your nickname makes sense more and more


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> you also proving your china/italian data everywhere but markets ain't going down... stocks most of the time are detached from data, take any stock for the past month did data of the companies/industry change? why are they swinging? your nickname makes sense more and more


hold on .
just a sec
here comes the late half hour short covering rally
before a long weekeend , with a possible announcement of downgrades.
ha u like my nick
wait till u see treasuries trading at 1.66% . do u know what that means?
dont worry , i will buy ya a lolypop when u lost ur shirt lol
nuff said for the whole year for ya.
as of this moment ur on my ignore


----------



## Toronto.gal

Guys, stop fighting & be nice to each other. 

Late 1/2 rally, lol, everything is going up now in the last few minutes, except ECA.


----------



## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> Guys, stop fighting & be nice to each other.
> 
> Late 1/2 rally, lol, everything is going up now in the last few minutes, except ECA.


heheheh
hold on it went up 1 cent T.gal
17.93 on the ask ,here comes the rally
here ya go 300 shares bought already lol
\he could have made 7 cents already from the lows of today
17.95 on the ask and going to the moon lol

heheheh its all good we should all load on cheap stocks
its all priced in right?

next question i would ask BLIn BLIN is why coking coal prices are slumping, he must know why PCX fell off a cliff today right?

JP morgan had stellar results also right?
ha so sorry there are no bids to carry ECA today its 17.89 now


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> heheheh
> JP morgan had stellar results also right?
> ha so sorry there are no bids to carry ECA today its 17.89 now


So, ECA closed at $17.89 -> very close to day's low of 17.86...
and JPM (as well as VIX)closed down, but on the best level of the day ...


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> Guys, stop fighting & be nice to each other.
> 
> Late 1/2 rally, lol, everything is going up now in the last few minutes, except ECA.


psst, psst, it wasn't the spelling bandwagon ;-)

Bought a bit of ECA today


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> So, ECA closed at $17.89 -> very close to day's low of 17.86...
> and JPM (as well as VIX)closed down, but on the best level of the day ...


sure and then .....?
the Vix is trading low ..... now.
not sure what are u trying to say here, therefore i ask.


----------



## newbie

Homerhomer said:


> psst, psst, it wasn't the spelling bandwagon ;-)
> 
> Bought a bit of ECA today


well then like the saying goes
GLTY


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> hold on .
> just a sec
> here comes the late half hour short covering rally
> before a long weekeend , with a possible announcement of downgrades.
> ha u like my nick
> wait till u see treasuries trading at 1.66% . do u know what that means?
> dont worry , i will buy ya a lolypop when u lost ur shirt lol
> nuff said for the whole year for ya.
> as of this moment ur on my ignore


i'm not the one down 50g's lol... you can't afford buying me candy


----------



## gibor365

newbie said:


> sure and then .....?
> the Vix is trading low ..... now.
> not sure what are u trying to say here, therefore i ask.


VIX is not trading  

I just mentioned that JPM and VIX closed at best level of the day (for bulls)


----------



## newbie

gibor said:


> VIX is not trading
> 
> I just mentioned that JPM and VIX closed at best level of the day (for bulls)


ha
gotcha
i actually do trade the vix through etfs but i am terrible at it.
very small amounts.
i am in training phase


----------



## Abha

I'm confused over what this fight is about

Can someone give me the Coles Note version so I don't have to sift through the thread.


----------



## newbie

Abha said:


> I'm confused over what this fight is about
> 
> Can someone give me the Coles Note version so I don't have to sift through the thread.


nah
u dont need the coles dictionary.
i am just having some fun today


----------



## humble_pie

jan 12/2012 weekly natural gas storage report from the US energy information administration:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

2nd graph on their page shows nat gas storage declining although at the top of the 5-year seasonal curve.


----------



## newbie

humble_pie said:


> jan 12/2012 weekly natural gas storage report from the US energy information administration:
> 
> http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
> 
> 2nd graph on their page shows nat gas storage declining although at the top of the 5-year seasonal curve.


wow
very informative sport 
apparently u think that is all u need to trade Natural Gas


----------



## Homerhomer

newbie said:


> wow
> very informative sport
> apparently u think that is all u need to trade Natural Gas


Here is a great read for you, it may even touch on some kind of gas, buy it and read it, it will be the best investment you ever made.

http://www.amazon.com/Etiquette-Dummies-Sue-Fox/dp/0764551701


----------



## newbie

Homerhomer said:


> Here is a great read for you, it may even touch on some kind of gas, buy it and read it, it will be the best investment you ever made.
> 
> http://www.amazon.com/Etiquette-Dummies-Sue-Fox/dp/0764551701


maybe u should link it to Mr.humble pie , which slapped me right from the get go since i started posting here homer.
FYI i do trade NG and the link he gave u guys is as useless as u can get.
maybe u are another smart man to trade NG?
cmon what do u know about storage facilities, econometrics, contango, spreads.
if i were you i would not post senseless , useless stuff.
let me start with one question for both of ya.
what are your estimates for winter end (march's end) storage based on the actual weather forecasts and withdrawals?
give me numbers not B.S link to buy "etiquete books".
I guess John arnold at Centaurus also needs ya lol.give him a call .
actually i am starting to think that the more i ask you the more you learn , so i wont talk about it anymore.
buy urself a book to learn how to trade Natural Gas.
"Sticks and stones" sir

here endeth the conversation


----------



## newbie

*5 year low*

ECA just hit a 5 year low
trading at 17.26 on my level 2
triggering several stop losses
anyone buying?
algos are goin nuts here


----------



## AMABILE

I'd really like to buy ENCANA @ $17.00.
Will it go that low ?


----------



## Toronto.gal

newbie said:


> ECA just hit a 5 year low...anyone buying?


It is getting very, very tempting. 

Amabile, your target price is just a few cents off [I would like it at $15].


----------



## dubmac

Yep...maybe lower...(sigh)
ECA..(blub...blub...........blub )

Maybe I'll buy more at 16!


----------



## KaeJS

I said I would buy more under $18, but judging by the way this thing is being hammered, I am staying out.

I may add 100 shares to my 100 share position in the future when it levels out.


----------



## dubmac

newbie said:


> ECA just hit a 5 year low
> trading at 17.26 on my level 2
> triggering several stop losses
> *anyone buying?*
> algos are goin nuts here


...are you buying?

from your posts, it sounds as tho you know the NG market very welll...so....given ECA under 18..are you buying?


----------



## newbie

dubmac said:


> ...are you buying?
> 
> from your posts, it sounds as tho you know the NG market very welll...so....given ECA under 18..are you buying?


no 
i am not buying ECA even at 15 bux.
now , understand that i do not hold long term , any stock alright?
ECA is the second largest producer in NA and they are not going bankrupt.
they have a good hedge program for 2012 and sold quite a bit of it, at a very good price.
they are a good company with pure NG play since they spun out CVE.
i am not bashing the stock , i am just saying that nobody can buy at the lowest low.
if u are in for divys they will keep paying divys.
if ur afraid that it will go lower , but if u believe in the company , average it down.
do ur own DD.
GL


----------



## dubmac

Morningstar has a "Consider Buy" price of 17.50 for ECA- that is the price that they (their analysts etc) consider the stock to be "an extremely attractive purchase" - whatever that means in this market 

From Morningstar..." The consider buying price is the price at which a stock would be rated 5 stars, and thus the point at which we would consider the stock an extremely attractive purchase."


----------



## Eder

Toronto.gal said:


> It is getting very, very tempting.
> 
> Amabile, your target price is just a few cents off [I would like it at $15].


I think it drops another 3-5% tomorrow, if so I am going to plug my nose and buy 1/2 long position because I heard it was best to buy low haha. 

4.5% div and 1/2 hedged this year at profitable prices should ensure that theres not too much more downside risk near term(10%?).

The LNG thing out of Kitimat with Apache is making me pony up for this pooch.(can we say $14 FOB Tokyo?)

At least I'm not gonna buy TLM .


----------



## blin10

bought 100 shares today, ill keep buying 100 shares on every dollar down from here on


----------



## KaeJS

blin10 said:


> bought 100 shares today, ill keep buying 100 shares on every dollar down from here on


This was probably a smart move, blin.

I'm not sure ECA will be down tomorrow.

Also, with regards to Eder's comment above, I believe I read that ECA has hedged and is selling their NatGas at ~$5.80/mmbtu. More than double the current price. 

If ECA is in the green tomorrow, I may add 100, but only if its in the green.


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> I think it drops another 3-5% tomorrow, if so I am going to plug my nose and buy 1/2 long position because I heard it was best to buy low haha.
> 
> 4.5% div and 1/2 hedged this year at profitable prices should ensure that theres not too much more downside risk near term(10%?).
> 
> The LNG thing out of Kitimat with Apache is making me pony up for this pooch.(can we say $14 FOB Tokyo?)
> 
> At least I'm not gonna buy TLM .


would u be able to actualy tell me what is "really" wrong with TLM?
i can see that ur sticking ur neck for ECA but trashing TLM.
maybe i am missing something.
and that is after the other day's quote u posted on another thread.
wow


----------



## Eder

In addition, Encana has hedged approximately 1,955 MMcf/d of expected 2012
natural gas production at an average price of $5.80 per Mcf and approximately 505 MMcf/d of expected 2013
natural gas production at an average price of $5.24 per Mcf.


This is in USD.


----------



## blin10

KaeJS said:


> This was probably a smart move, blin.
> 
> I'm not sure ECA will be down tomorrow.
> 
> Also, with regards to Eder's comment above, I believe I read that ECA has hedged and is selling their NatGas at ~$5.80/mmbtu. More than double the current price.
> 
> If ECA is in the green tomorrow, I may add 100, but only if its in the green.


yah that's a good strategy as well


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> In addition, Encana has hedged approximately 1,955 MMcf/d of expected 2012
> natural gas production at an average price of $5.80 per Mcf and approximately 505 MMcf/d of expected 2013
> natural gas production at an average price of $5.24 per Mcf.
> 
> 
> This is in USD.


hmm 
an educated man
and yet the sp price tanked 50%.
would u kindly explain why ,even though they r hedged?
lets see where are u taking this one to.....

just asking cuz i am so damn bored of trading spreads on the CME for the past 12 hours on thin volume that i find myself actually inspired to read this thread


----------



## KaeJS

newbie said:


> and yet the sp price tanked 50%.
> would u kindly explain why ,even though they r hedged?


Only problem with this is that it's short term. Once the hedging is over and done with, then what?

Then ECA is still screwed unless the price of natgas miraculously goes up in 6 months (which I doubt will go any higher than $3 at best).

What's wrong with TLM? Someone please tell me.

I've looked over TLM many times and I see no real pressing issues. They're increasing production, they're oil and gas, stock is undervalued, international operations, good Q3 report, decent 2012 outlook...

What's so wrong? The only downsides that I can see are:

1. NatGas is low
2. The dividend is semi-annually


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> Only problem with this is that it's short term. Once the hedging is over and done with, then what?
> 
> Then ECA is still screwed unless the price of natgas miraculously goes up in 6 months (which I doubt will go any higher than $3 at best).
> 
> What's wrong with TLM? Someone please tell me.
> 
> I've looked over TLM many times and I see no real pressing issues. They're increasing production, they're oil and gas, stock is undervalued, international operations, good Q3 report, decent 2012 outlook...
> 
> What's so wrong? The only downsides that I can see are:
> 
> 1. NatGas is low
> 2. The dividend is semi-annually


K
dont get angry at me.
i am asking EDER to explain to me/us what is soooooooo wrong with TLM.
trust me i know what is and what is not wrong with both.

i am waiting for EDER 
he soon will try and sell CHK also for crying out loud.
problem is he does not reply to my questions though.....


----------



## KaeJS

newbie,

I am not angry at anyone. Opinions from others are always good, though.


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> newbie,
> 
> I am not angry at anyone. Opinions from others are always good, though.


K
sorry 
EDER is not providing anything IMO
u will be fine with TLM and u will also be fine with ECA.
just average it down if needed man.
u buy very small amounts.
that is what flares me up about posters like him that know absolutely jack about NG companies , just what they read on the globe and mail.
by the way where is EDER .


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> K
> dont get angry at me.
> *i am asking EDER to explain to me/us what is soooooooo wrong with TLM.
> trust me i know what is and what is not wrong with both.*
> 
> i am waiting for EDER
> he soon will try and sell CHK also for crying out loud.
> problem is he does not reply to my questions though.....


did you really say that? you're like a clown here mr. know it all


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> did you really say that? you're like a clown here mr. know it all


thank G'D for the ignore button LOL


----------



## dubmac

More from Morningstar's report on ECA - dated Dec 8th 2011 (they haven't published an update since then that I have access to...)
I don't undertand all of the verbage and terms here - but I do get some information from the passage - I have highlighted some information...hope this helps all interested in exploring whether to add ECA into you positions (as I do...I think...)

From Valuation, Growth and Profitability...
Analyst: Robert Bellinski

Our benchmark oil and gas prices are based on Nymex futures contracts for 2011-13. For natural gas, we are using $4.10 per thousand cubic feet in 2011, $4.11 in 2012, and $4.64 in 2013. For oil and NGLs, we are using oil
prices of $91.45 per barrel in 2011, $86.05 in 2012, and $87.10 in 2013. Encana has hedged about 50% of 2011 production, leaving 2011 cash flows moderately exposed to natural gas prices. *Encana has about 51% of 2012
volume hedged.**We also assume a 2% discount to Nymex natural gas and a 10%-15% discount to Nymex West Texas Intermediate when computing realized liquids selling prices.

With the exception of 2012, when the 200 mmcfe/d offshore Deep Panuke production facility in Nova Scotia comes online, we expect production growth in the 4%-5% range until natural gas prices rise.*Our forecast for 2011 production is 3,472 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net of royalties, at a ratio of 4% liquids to 96% gas. Weexpect lifting costs of roughly $1.80 per mcfe in 2011, increasing by 7%-10% per year through 2015. *We forecast
cash capital expenditures and exploration expense to be $4.78 billion in 2011 and $3.76 billion in 2012.***Our 2011 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and exploration expenses (after removing the value of the firm's hedge book) is $3.51 billion, while our 2012
EBITDAX forecast is $3.60 billion.*


----------



## newbie

dubmac said:


> More from Morningstar's report on ECA - dated Dec 8th 2011 (they haven't published an update since then that I have access to...)
> I don't undertand all of the verbage and terms here - but I do get some information from the passage - I have highlighted some information...hope this helps all interested in exploring whether to add ECA into you positions (as I do...I think...)
> 
> From Valuation, Growth and Profitability...
> Analyst: Robert Bellinski
> 
> Our benchmark oil and gas prices are based on Nymex futures contracts for 2011-13. For natural gas, we are using $4.10 per thousand cubic feet in 2011, $4.11 in 2012, and $4.64 in 2013. For oil and NGLs, we are using oil
> prices of $91.45 per barrel in 2011, $86.05 in 2012, and $87.10 in 2013. Encana has hedged about 50% of 2011 production, leaving 2011 cash flows moderately exposed to natural gas prices. *Encana has about 51% of 2012
> volume hedged.**We also assume a 2% discount to Nymex natural gas and a 10%-15% discount to Nymex West Texas Intermediate when computing realized liquids selling prices.
> 
> With the exception of 2012, when the 200 mmcfe/d offshore Deep Panuke production facility in Nova Scotia comes online, we expect production growth in the 4%-5% range until natural gas prices rise.*Our forecast for 2011 production is 3,472 million cubic feet equivalent per day, net of royalties, at a ratio of 4% liquids to 96% gas. Weexpect lifting costs of roughly $1.80 per mcfe in 2011, increasing by 7%-10% per year through 2015. *We forecast
> cash capital expenditures and exploration expense to be $4.78 billion in 2011 and $3.76 billion in 2012.***Our 2011 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and exploration expenses (after removing the value of the firm's hedge book) is $3.51 billion, while our 2012
> EBITDAX forecast is $3.60 billion.*


well at least someone is actually reading something.
dont get me wrong D how many shares are u planning to hold, if u dont mind me asking you?
100, 1000, 10k?
hboy43 bought at a higher price and i do not think he is worried at all.


----------



## Eder

newbie said:


> K
> sorry
> EDER is not providing anything IMO
> u will be fine with TLM and u will also be fine with ECA.
> just average it down if needed man.
> u buy very small amounts.
> that is what flares me up about posters like him that know absolutely jack about NG companies , just what they read on the globe and mail.
> by the way where is EDER .


Oops sorry. I was pm'd by a forum member that you had responded to some of my drival. I guess I had you (have) on ignore.

Anyway I briefly stated my case to think of Encana as a value play. 

I don't like TLM as I have explained in the past. 

I'm not 100% convinced Encana is any better other than they have committed to paying a decent dividend and if they concentrate on liquids the next couple years they may even be able to maintain it. The fact that Apache would have them as a partner confirms that they are less inept than TLM.

I don't want to write a book so I'll stop here.

Sorry that you are flared up.


----------



## dubmac

I'm looking to buy 100 shares at a time - I have 5K in my TFSA. 
I like what blin10 is doing - buying 100, and avergaing down every dollar down. 
I would hold for between 3-5 yrs - If I can make a decent $, then sell it along the way somewhere. 
I already own 100 - bought them at 19.50


----------



## newbie

dubmac said:


> I'm looking to buy 100 shares at a time - I have 5K in my TFSA.
> I like what blin10 is doing - buying 100, and avergaing down every dollar down.
> I would hold for between 3-5 yrs - If I can make a decent $, then sell it along the way somewhere.
> I already own 100 - bought them at 19.50


so what is the concern than man?
3-5 years?
i thought ur trading short term.
i dont even know where to start with u man.
anyway , first and foremos u are buying shares of a company that produces the most depressed commodity on earth.
nevertheless it pays good divys and will keep doing so.
what you have to look and read about is why are we in such depressed market.
google Marcellus area .
land leases for drilling.
browse and go deep into the EIA site for underground storage capacities.
differences between salt storage sites and aquifers , and the list goes on .
but for the amount of shares u are buying i would just hold them.
IMHO there are much better plays for u with 5k.
but it is ur call bro
GL
do ur own DD


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> Oops sorry. I was pm'd by a forum member that you had responded to some of my drival. I guess I had you (have) on ignore.
> 
> Anyway I briefly stated my case to think of Encana as a value play.
> 
> I don't like TLM as I have explained in the past.
> 
> I'm not 100% convinced Encana is any better other than they have committed to paying a decent dividend and if they concentrate on liquids the next couple years they may even be able to maintain it. The fact that Apache would have them as a partner confirms that they are less inept than TLM.
> 
> I don't want to write a book so I'll stop here.
> 
> Sorry that you are flared up.


if i am on ur ignore iam not even going to start a conversation with u sir.
i think u will be surprised with what TLM might have under their sleeve.


----------



## gibor365

Oh Oh, when came from work NG futures were up , now it's down again -4.6% ....and WTI is up 1.6%.... Interesting what will be with ECA tomorrow


----------



## KaeJS

Tomorrow, we will learn something important with ECA. 

If ECA goes up, then it's not as much about the price of NG as most people think and it's more about market sentiment. 

If NG is down 5%, but ECA goes up, well, there's a clue for ya...


----------



## doctrine

Why isn't it about NG? In fact, if NG even stays at this level, its only going to get worse and worse for Encana. They are still realizing over $5/mbtu due to hedging and longer contracts and the market price is half that? If NG stays below $3/mbtu, which is entirely possible for 3-5 years, their *revenues* could drop 40% in 2013 over 2012, let alone their earnings which will be non-existent.


----------



## KaeJS

It is about NG. Well, it should be. 

If its all about NG, then ECA should go down tomorrow, regardless of market sentiment. No?


----------



## newbie

KaeJS said:


> It is about NG. Well, it should be.
> 
> If its all about NG, then ECA should go down tomorrow, regardless of market sentiment. No?


u worry too much man
just hold it and u will be fine
same with TLM
if needed average it down.
price of NG has an effect on the stock but mkts have a much higher effect.
if mkts take a nosedive ECA will go down also.
peace out , i am very very busy now


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> Oops sorry. I was pm'd by a forum member that you had responded to some of my drival. I guess I had you (have) on ignore.
> 
> Anyway I briefly stated my case to think of Encana as a value play.
> 
> I don't like TLM as I have explained in the past.
> 
> I'm not 100% convinced Encana is any better other than they have committed to paying a decent dividend and if they concentrate on liquids the next couple years they may even be able to maintain it. The fact that Apache would have them as a partner confirms that they are less inept than TLM.
> 
> I don't want to write a book so I'll stop here.
> 
> Sorry that you are flared up.


So EDER
i should have made a bet of 100k dollars at my lawyers office with you since u r so educated in NG companies.
and u said that it might drop another 3 to 5% today.
i think that it is not TLM that is inept , neither ECa.
in the meantime u scare the hell out of younglings like KaeJs and others without knowing a hoot about NG companies and NG trading.
i am not flared up my boy , i am appalled at incopetency.
a market derisking has correlation with equities not the depression stage with Natural Gas.
go back to school my boy.....


----------



## humble_pie

i had 1300 left over in the tfsa today, after purchasing something serious w the 5k contribution.

so i bought some ECA 2014 leap calls. The other half of the spread got sold in US margin account, since eca options trade better in the US.

it's a bit tricky to steer a tiny option dinghy like this one, split as she is between accounts & also split between cad & usd. However i feel i am a better navigator than capitaine schettino.


----------



## Eder

newbie said:


> So EDER
> i should have made a bet of 100k dollars at my lawyers office with you since u r so educated in NG companies.
> and u said that it might drop another 3 to 5% today.
> i think that it is not TLM that is inept , neither ECa.
> in the meantime u scare the hell out of young lings like KaeJs and others without knowing a hoot about NG companies and NG trading.
> i am not flared up my boy , i am appalled at incompetency.
> a market derisking has correlation with equities not the depression stage with Natural Gas.
> go back to school my boy.....


 lol...I just deleted a long response. the 100k bet thing...ha


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> lol...I just deleted a long response. the 100k bet thing...ha


ha
so all of a sudden i am out of ur ignore.
is it dropping tomorrow ?
let me know ok?
i said it will go lower but nobody can predict the exact bottom, but apprently ur Crystal ball said 3-5% today.
well it did not happen, today..........
i cant wait for ur precious answer.
do u really think i care about ur response?
what is end of march storage prediction knowledgeable individual?
what happens when we have Hydro coming online in march's end?
what is ECa adjusted and projected earnings for the next 3 quarters?
like i said Centaurus needs ya.
ha just forgot one more for ya educated man.
what is the ratio between PRB/Ng for the switch.
forget appalachian coal.
i am talking the cheap stuff.
Give Arnie a call


----------



## newbie

Eder said:


> lol...I just deleted a long response. the 100k bet thing...ha


hey EDER 
i have some calls to sell for ya.
how is Arnie by the way?


----------



## Betzy

On Fire today, congrats to all who bought at $18


----------



## Toronto.gal

Just under $18.


----------



## warp

I watched it few a few months....almost pulled the trigger at about $17.50, but decided to wait a bit......an error it would seem.

Good move to you all who bought........

I would view ECA as a good long term hold, paying a nice dividend too.

Good luck.


----------



## Toronto.gal

*warp:* you always seem to be waiting/watching, but never actually buying anything.  I'm sure your patience has paid off in some instances and missed on others; c'est la vie.


----------



## zylon

My thinking is that there's still time to get lower prices.

I wouldn't go so far as to say NatGas will see $1. That sounds like the call for $5 oil when it was $10, but I wouldn't rule out $2.

In the meantime, if a person can collect 4% dividends while-u-wait, why not?


----------



## blin10

eca going up? how can it be? newbie said it wouldn't haha


----------



## humble_pie

the $1 gas mythology got into cmf forum from a reference to bentek energy, which was offered by equityval.

bentek is a premium research service selling data & analysis to the O&G industry. I had never heard of it, so i was grateful to val for supplying the link.

bentek is calling for 2 separate natgas $1 handles, one in the spring of this year & the other in the fall. I'm sure they will be over so fast a dumb crust like myself will never be able to catch either one of them.

plus T. Boone Pickens, the oklahome petroleum legend who has lived on to enjoy his own mythology in advanced old age, is calling the $1 handle.

so what is a handle, actually ? i just looked it up. The answer is surprising. Not what i thought. A "handle" is the whole number portion of an equity price, with the decimal or penny places removed.

this means that natgas could drop into the 1.98 range (not far below its recent level) & immediately it would be said to have a "handle" of $1. Not too scary.


----------



## Homerhomer

I am still holding on to my latest lot of eca, I think it has legs to go higher.


----------



## humble_pie

newbie had a fazzectomy.


----------



## blin10

Homerhomer said:


> I am still holding on to my latest lot of eca, I think it has legs to go higher.


same here, got 300 shares average $18... it poped on a nice volume, ill hold it for awhile


----------



## newbie

humble_pie said:


> newbie had a fazzectomy.


Ha
the FAZ eectomy joke lol humble.
no sir no PHAZECTOMY but u probably need a mastectomy.
.
i am averaging it down , unlike other people that enter 100% in a trade.
by the way DR.Mr. humble do not worry about me.
as for ECA , the stock ,we shall see in time.
by the way , when was the last time u actuallty traded the nymex futures sir
ha let me see .... never.
keep watching it ..... sir
oh i forgot that today Dr. BEN announced more debt for the Americans , after all it is election year.

oh by the way , you and Homer boy can call Arnie .
Centaurus needs you too lol......


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> eca going up? how can it be? newbie said it wouldn't haha


Another Natural Gas trader Genius  lol
by the way i did not say it would not go higher.
i dont trade this stock .
u know where is the location for the Nymex?
i will provide u directions if u need.


----------



## newbie

humble_pie said:


> the $1 gas mythology got into cmf forum from a reference to bentek energy, which was offered by equityval.
> 
> bentek is a premium research service selling data & analysis to the O&G industry. I had never heard of it, so i was grateful to val for supplying the link.
> 
> bentek is calling for 2 separate natgas $1 handles, one in the spring of this year & the other in the fall. I'm sure they will be over so fast a dumb crust like myself will never be able to catch either one of them.
> 
> plus T. Boone Pickens, the oklahome petroleum legend who has lived on to enjoy his own mythology in advanced old age, is calling the $1 handle.
> 
> so what is a handle, actually ? i just looked it up. The answer is surprising. Not what i thought. A "handle" is the whole number portion of an equity price, with the decimal or penny places removed.
> 
> this means that natgas could drop into the 1.98 range (not far below its recent level) & immediately it would be said to have a "handle" of $1. Not too scary.


Hey doc
need help opening a margin acct on the nymex or ICE?
dont think u can afford to trade an ICE acct


----------



## Homerhomer

blin10 said:


> eca going up? how can it be? newbie said it wouldn't haha





humble_pie said:


> newbie had a fazzectomy.



See what you two have done!!!!!

Now I have to scroll down half a page by the time I pass "this member is on your ignore list, this member is on your ignore list, this member is on your ignore list.

Some thing are less foul when undisturbed, thankfully the other member of my list doesn't visit traders section ;-)


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> Another Natural Gas trader Genius  lol
> by the way i did not say it would not go higher.
> i dont trade this stock .
> u know where is the location for the Nymex?
> i will provide u directions if u need.


wasn't I on your ignore list? what happend? lol...


----------



## newbie

Homerhomer said:


> See what you two have done!!!!!
> 
> Now I have to scroll down half a page by the time I pass "this member is on your ignore list, this member is on your ignore list, this member is on your ignore list.
> 
> Some thing are less foul when undisturbed, thankfully the other member of my list doesn't visit traders section ;-)


hehehe
since i actually trade when is needed and type here when i can , u have to skip it lol.
have u called Arnie yet?


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> wasn't I on your ignore list? what happend? lol...


oh
u still are .
but i can read ur posts Genius.
but i promise that i wont any longer.
i have a great idea for u .
buy some March calls liquidation price on the Nymex.
but u have to have an acct there Sir


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> oh
> u still are .
> but i can read ur posts Genius.
> but i promise that i wont any longer.
> i have a great idea for u .
> buy some March calls liquidation price on the Nymex.
> but u have to have an acct there Sir


why would I take advice from someone who's down over 60g's and still keeps averaging down in a bull market? your nickname suits you well lol ... any ways that was my last post to you, not going to waist more time with a 15 year old kid


----------



## newbie

blin10 said:


> why would I take advice from someone who's down over 60g's and still keeps averaging down in a bull market? your nickname suits you well lol ... any ways that was my last post to you, not going to waist more time with a 15 year old kid


my nick is perfect genius
and no i am not 60 G down Genius.
it sure is a bull mkt
oh forgot one thing though, i aint a kid either lol.
take my advice and buy some calls on prompt+1 , u will see that u will make more money.
anyway , BOY .


----------



## Jesse

In at 17.40 a week ago. Beautiful.


----------



## daddybigbucks

with nat gas at 10 year lows, i can see encana being around $21-22 in this market. I don't find it undervalued now.

20% gain in 3 days is nothing to scoff at. I'm thinking about trading my recently acquired ECA for some POT. Pretty much works out to 2ECA :1POT


----------



## humble_pie

*being the further adventures of Alice & the Dormouse in wonderland*

who invited the new guest, asked the Mad Hatter.

slurps his tea out of the saucer, said the March Hare.

i have never understood how young people can tolerate a smelly old perv breathing all over them, said the Mad Hatter, gazing meaningfully at Alice as she jumped up.

this tea party is over, announced Alice, pulling the dormouse out of the teapot & tucking him into the front pocket of her hoodie. Then she carefully repositioned her dotted swiss organdy pinafore on top of everything.

thank you dear child, said the dormouse. I'm so glad i'm leaving with you. He's going to turn the place into a pigsty.


----------



## PMREdmonton

This is a risky stock in the medium term, IMO.

As they roll over their hedging program they aren't going to get $5 next year - maybe they'll only get $3 which means they will be selling at a loss.

The problem is that almost all NG is locked on this continent. There is tons being produced as a byproduct of oil drilling. There are also apparently land lease deals in the US that state they must produce or have such a short-term lease that they are forced to produce. However, in a setting of low prices there is no place to park it and no way to ship it. In terms of consumption it will take time to build power plants and it will take a long time before there are enough NG engines running around that can use this as a fuel source.

Eventually LNG ports will be built and there will be more uses for NG here (transportation and power) and the price will return to a more sensible area around $10 or so. In the meantime ECA will be losing money, will have to cut their dividend, their stock price could get pounded and they may have trouble servicing their considerable debt levels. 

My understanding is some are even speculating NG could drop to $1 because supply-demand is so out of whack.


----------



## dubmac

BC Ferries just announced that they plan to convert a portion of their fleet to LNG from diesel - I don't know the timetable for this, but it's interesting that some companies are starting the conversion from diesel to LNG. Apparently they expect to save some 60% in fuel costs!! woah . (I'm OK with that as a tax-payer here in BC!)


----------



## leoc2

Is Encana a good buy at $19?


----------



## humble_pie

i was thinking eca may be a good buy, but edmonton has good points above that are negative.

also equityval warns in trp thread that eca may have to take a big writedown on the haynesville:

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showpost.php?p=107994&postcount=230

other concerns: can eca keep on paying the present div after hedges expire.

plus i'm one who believes that northern gateway will never be flowing by 2016 or 2018.

still i've bought some eca, not as stock but in heavily hedged option positions only.


----------



## leoc2

Is Encana a good buy at $20?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Lol Leoc, did you ask yourself the same question on Jan.17th/2012 when it was $17+?  That's when you should have grabbed them with both hands! 

Why not just get it, if you want it for long term? Look at the 52 week high.

Don't buy on a day when it has gone up 5% though.


----------



## leoc2

T-Gal I was trying to get the Larry81 effect to transfer from SU to ECA with that quote. It worked!! I did buy at $19 in my explore account.


----------



## Eder

I got in in the high $17's but I won't sell till they are shipping LNG out of Kitimat.


----------



## PMREdmonton

UPL (Ultra Petroleum) which is another pure NG play in the USA and the lowest cost producer was way down yesterday. It is interesting that ECA is up while UPL is down as they both face similar issues as pure gas plays with big earnings cuts coming up with loss of favourable hedges.

If you missed out on ECA at its bottom, you can grab UPL for the same reasons. The one big difference is no dividend from UPL.


----------



## londoncalling

missed earnings estimate by 2 cents. However, most of the other numbers are up. The company also said they plan to cut production and cap ex to dry gas wells in an attempt to reverse the price decline in NG. They also announced a partnership with Mitsubishi for 40% of the cutbank assets. I am guessing that the price of ECA will climb on this news and also the macro news of "solving"  the next installment of the Greece debacle. I unfortunately, had no spare cash to deploy awhile back to pick up ECA when it was much cheaper. I will however, have some $ to spend in a day or two. I may hold it for when the attention moves to Portugal, Italy, or whatever general fear that crops up every few months. 

Any thoughts?

Cheers


----------



## KaeJS

You are right in saying that the price will climb. Holding out may be a good idea. You might be able to get it around $19 again.


----------



## Homerhomer

ECA is up 4% in premarket.
Everyone was expecting poor earnings so 2 penny miss is not a big issue given the deal, the cash they have making dividends secure, they have money to explore liquids.

I am holding for now.


----------



## hboy43

Hi:

I am disappointed that they are selling assets at a trough, but I guess that is why I paid $19, instead of $35 a year ago.

hboy43


----------



## PMREdmonton

hboy43 said:


> Hi:
> 
> I am disappointed that they are selling assets at a trough, but I guess that is why I paid $19, instead of $35 a year ago.
> 
> hboy43


My guess is they were bolstering cash balances so they can wait out the recovery in natural gas prices (and they will eventually recover but it may take 3 - 5 years) and hopefully still continue to pay their dividends.

So while I agree they may not have gotten fair value in the asset sale it gave them liquidity that they will need during this bear market in nat gas.


----------



## KaeJS

I'm enjoying this 6.5% increase. Too bad I don't own more!!


----------



## Barwelle

Ditto. I bought some at 17.50 on Monday. Took a glance at it just now... up 12% from purchase price! That was nice to see. I thought I would have to hold this for a while before seeing it go up significantly.

Something I wonder about Encana: They've been selling off some of their assets, I'm guessing to help them through this period of low gas prices.

But... this would limit their ability to make money once prices come back up. If they wanted to increase their holdings, it'll cost them more in the future than what they made selling them now. I guess they're giving up long term gain to reduce short term pain. Kind of makes sense to me, but not really. I guess you never know how long you would have to suffer, so they'd rather just sell what they need to to have enough cash on hand.


----------



## KaeJS

It doesn't necessarily mean it will cost them more later.

Lots of companies do this in order to free up cash. Whatever they're doing is working.


----------



## Barwelle

Shouldn't it? All other things being equal? Of course there are many variables.

edit: haha... just realized how contradictory that was...
My point is, it should, but we won't know because it's too hard to figure out with all the possibilities. Same with whether or not this will hurt them in the long run.


----------



## KaeJS

Barwelle, I wouldn't worry about the selling off of their assets.

They are posting profits, so I'm not too concerned.

If they were losing $1B/quarter and selling off their assets, then I would be concerned.

_“We continue to seek and develop partnership opportunities for the exploration and development of oil and liquids-rich assets throughout our land base, and for dry natural gas plays that could be linked to liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects,” Eresman said. “Our target is to maintain financial strength and flexibility by balancing capital investment with cash flow. By accelerating investment in prospective oil and liquids-rich natural gas plays we expect to diversify our commodity mix and sources of cash flow.” _

Plus, what kind of buyer are you?

Are you keeping EnCana for the next 10 years, or are you just looking to trade?

In both instances, you shouldn't care, because you've made significant profit on a % basis already if you are trading. If you are holding long term, the company will come back with a vengeance once NatGas Prices go back up where they belong. Keep collecting those $.20/share dividends.

Since I am a big believer in the role Natural Gas will play in the future, I am 100% long on EnCana and I do not have one single cell in my body that would tell me to get rid of this stock.

I originally purchased in December for $19.95 and I have not flinched. I keep up to date on the quarterly news, such as earnings and dividends, etc. Other than that, I don't even pay attention to EnCana. It just sits there like a good dividend stock.


----------



## Barwelle

What kind of buyer? Well some of my investments will be used to buy a house or farmland somewhere down the line. My plan was to use some of this money to buy some steady companies until I need to use the money (or sell if they do exceptionally well before then), and try my hand at swing trading with the rest of it.

With EnCana my plan was to do both. I bought one "tranche" (if I may use a term I've seen used here) at 17.50. I kept some money to buy another tranche if it continued downward, or stayed the same level for a while. So I was going to hold one tranche for a longer period time, and trade it with the other. Wasn't expecting it to jump like it did last week. I sold on Friday thinking that ECA should stay low for the summer, since natural gas prices likely won't come back up significantly until the fall when natural gas use will rise. Of course, gas prices may rise sooner than that since everyone is cutting production.

If that was the cheapest it's going to get, oh well, I still made money on it (and just in one week), and if it drops, I'll buy - and keep at least some for longer.


----------



## blin10

go eca go, that would be awesome if it'll make it back to 25-30$


----------



## daddybigbucks

KaeJS said:


> Since I am a big believer in the role Natural Gas will play in the future, I am 100% long on EnCana and I do not have one single cell in my body that would tell me to get rid of this stock.
> 
> I originally purchased in December for $19.95 and I have not flinched. I keep up to date on the quarterly news, such as earnings and dividends, etc. Other than that, I don't even pay attention to EnCana. It just sits there like a good dividend stock.


I agree. If you read the news, one would sell right now as the anaylst's price targets are around $14. They are also reporting that in August, North america may not have any storage space left for gas.

But behind that doom and gloom outlook, they have always said they were going to run out of storage capacity. Nat gas rigs are at a 10 year low. Most of the smaller gas companies have switched over
their gas assets for oil assets.
I think the big companies will benefit from these changes and when supply gets lower and demand raises, ECA will climb according. And its hard to complain getting 5% while we wait.


----------



## Sampson

The volatility of this stock alone is making me want to become a part-time 'trader'


----------



## dubmac

Sampson said:


> The volatility of this stock alone is making me want to become a part-time 'trader'


so true...for a minimal 100 ($1,758.00 investment) shares flipped 4 times this year, and the benefit of hindisght, here's what could have happened..

buy ECA jan 17th ($17.58)
collect ECA dividend ...collect 20.00
sell ECA March 19 ($20.87)..collect $329.00
buy ECA April 23 ($17.63)
Sell ECA May 9 ($22.28)...collect $465.00
Buy ECA June 4 ($19.67)
collect ECA dividend...collect $20.00
Sell ECA June 22 ($22.92)..collect $325.00
Buy ECA Jun 26 ($19.08) 

Net profit 1,159.00 on a 1,758 investment..not bad! 
but can anyone predict those buy and sell points? - not likely - but fun all the same.

etc etc...


----------



## bigbadbull

dubmac said:


> but can anyone predict those buy and sell points? - not likely - but fun all the same.
> 
> etc etc...


dubmac what do you think of using a 14 day rsi on an intraday chart to look for entry points? assuming you would look to buy when it goes below 30. 

I'm also thinking you should watch the overall trend to pick a day you think a downtrend my be reversing then use the above strategy.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dubmac said:


> flipped 4 times this year....Net profit 1,159.00
> 
> but can anyone predict those buy and sell points? - not likely - but fun all the same.


Of course you can't predict all the time [except if you had a crystal ball], but as hp would say, it's not 'written in stone' that you would have had to flip it 4x. Even if you had only 'flipped' it once, at say $1 profit x 100 sh, as per your example above, it would have been as though you had received 5 additional dividend payments, and who could be upset about that? That is how I get dividend payments even from non-dividend paying stocks. :biggrin: 

I bought/held/sold this stock in the mid $30's and when the opportunity to buy it low, as well as to trade it presented itself, I did just that! I won't tell you how many times though. :wink:

Key to successful trading is not only learning how to trade, but also not to be greedy!

*Sampson:* what is stopping you from trading, IF that is what you would like to do? P-time can be done in your sleep, ie: you don't even have to watch the markets. Volatility is to be used to your advantage, whatever way it may be suitable for your situation.


----------



## underemployedactor

*encana deal*

Does anyone else think the Encana/Petrochina deal to develop the Duvernay lands might have good medium term implications for Encana's share price?


----------



## thenegotiator

not imo due to the joint venture.
it will benefit petrochina to learn from eca the fracking technology .
they have been looking for this opportunity for awhile.
china has vast gas resources but lack the technology.


----------



## KaeJS

*CEO Resigns..... and nobody on CMF cares?*

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE90D18520130114

I bought some today.

Let's see how it goes.


----------



## thenegotiator

Eder said:


> I got in in the high $17's but I won't sell till they are shipping LNG out of Kitimat.


that is you is it not EDEr?
they are not anywhere near to ship gas from KITIMAT?
when did u sell it then?


----------



## Eder

June 5th @ 20.622 June 5th @ 20.621 June 15th @ $21.922

The partnership began waffling on firm dates to complete engineering etc stating they wanted more firm contracts in place. I got cold feet and put that money into something more promising. Turns out my gut was right. Any other trades of mine you are interested in?


----------



## thenegotiator

Eder said:


> I got in in the high $17's but I won't sell till they are shipping LNG out of Kitimat.





Eder said:


> June 5th @ 20.622 June 5th @ 20.621 June 15th @ $21.922
> 
> The partnership began waffling on firm dates to complete engineering etc stating they wanted more firm contracts in place. I got cold feet and put that money into something more promising. Turns out my gut was right. Any other trades of mine you are interested in?



EDer 

this is yet again a piising contest.
my point is based on what doo ya get cold feet.
u made money right?
good for ya.
if u want to post other trades by all means.
that is what we are here for.
i am very busy this week so my active trading slows down substantially.
i will share this with ya .
i am bearish mostly everything.
it is time for the mkts to sellofff in a nice way.
it will be healthy.
trying to squeeze diamonds out of their arses is not a good idea.
cheers


----------



## Loon

Down 5% after what looks to be good news. What gives? 

http://www.4-traders.com/ENCANA-CORPORATION-1409827/news/EnCana-Corporation-Encana-Finishes-2012-Ahead-of-Guidance-and-With-$3-2-Billion-Cash-on-Balance-Sh-16050584/


----------



## Homerhomer

Loon said:


> Down 5% after what looks to be good news. What gives?


I haven't had a chance to look around for the reasons (maybe forward guidance wasn't good), but I think under $18 this would be good at least for a trade.


----------



## rd_aaron

Picked some up today @ 18.15.


----------



## Eder

I am waiting exactly 1 week...lets see that would be a buy on the 21st.


----------



## dubmac

Eder said:


> I am waiting exactly 1 week...lets see that would be a buy on the 21st.


Eder - what happens on the 21st? corporate earnings report? other?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Would not have guessed that we would hit same price as the already lows of Q1/Q2 of 2012.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Toronto.gal said:


> Would not have guessed that we would hit same price as the already lows of Q1/Q2 of 2012.


no kidding, stock price now is even lower than when nat gas was $2.00.


----------



## doctrine

I saw this a year ago (see my post on page 14). Last year, Encana was still realizing $5+ due to hedging. The hedging is running out. They need nat gas to be $6-7/MBTU to go back to $30+ in stock value.


----------



## PMREdmonton

It is rough going for most of the dry gas companies. The wet gas companies are considerably better off. The trouble is basically all the production from the oil fields that is now collected as a byproduct and sold into the market. Dry gas drilling is apparently at a multi-year low yet the gas inventories are still basically full. The ultimate solution will be the increasing use of natural gas in power generation and in truck fleets along with LNG exports. The only thing is it will take time for those things to materialize and we are probably talking about 2015 or so before there is much improvement.

I think ECA has the strength to weather the storm.

I also think that with today's short-term investors there will be bigger losses and probably a better entry point later on.

I'd get interested around $13-15.


----------



## Eder

dubmac said:


> Eder - what happens on the 21st? corporate earnings report? other?


Sorry nothing is happening next week...I posted that just to ensure I don't pull the trigger too soon...


----------



## Toronto.gal

Eder said:


> I posted that just to ensure I don't pull the trigger too soon...


I almost answered that for you Eder. 

*PMREdmonton:* I think you're dreaming a little, with respect to your desired price, but never say never in this business.

As for the required $6/$7/MBTU to get the share price back in the $30's, hmmm, how long before that 50% increase?!

What a painful company chart of the last 5 years; $70+ vs $18+.

http://www.encana.com/investors/shareholder/historical-share-price.html

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/natural-gas/all/

Buy/hold/prosper.


----------



## HaroldCrump

We have been hearing this truck fleet conversion story for a couple of years now...how Obama is almost on the cusp of legislating this.
However, given the glut of NG because of fracking technologies, I am not sure even the truck fleet conversion can push NG up from its current ~ $3 range to more than double to $6 - $7.

Also, ECA is picking up a bad reputation across the US mid-west because of its fracking wells right in the middle of residential areas.
It's all legal in the US (still), but townsfolk are p*sed off with ECA.
They perceive them as an evil corporation.


----------



## Ethan

Shades of Jeffrey Skilling?

http://business.financialpost.com/2...profanity-on-conference-call/?__lsa=b450-8e1e


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> What a painful company chart of the last 5 years; $70+ vs $18+.


But that does not reflect spinning Cenovus off. Yeah, Cenovus has been hurting bad lately also, but its not as precipitous of a fall. Add that back into the super company and you are at $50/share. Great value that move has added.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> It is rough going for most of the dry gas companies. The wet gas companies are considerably better off. The trouble is basically all the production from the oil fields that is now collected as a byproduct and sold into the market. Dry gas drilling is apparently at a multi-year low yet the gas inventories are still basically full. The ultimate solution will be the increasing use of natural gas in power generation and in truck fleets along with LNG exports. The only thing is it will take time for those things to materialize and we are probably talking about 2015 or so before there is much improvement.
> 
> I think ECA has the strength to weather the storm.
> 
> I also think that with today's short-term investors there will be bigger losses and probably a better entry point later on.
> 
> I'd get interested around $13-15.




PMR 
ur proclamation of knowledge in terms of storage and solutions for natural gas is absolutely horrendous.
let alone storage per se.
the only good thing i take from ur post is power generation.
even there u have to understand why and when and at what price Ng is competitive with .... the other fuel.
i am not even going to discuss that with ya ... unless u post and back up ur thesis.
i am not going to give u a freebie as to how storage in the USA is atm and neither in Canada.
and no they are not FULL as u say.
so please refrain from talking about the commodity if u have no idea of storage numbers , pricing and switching.
as for ECA as a member here always says the same way i do, the story is much different than it seems.
since u also do not know what the plays are for ECA and what their strategy is u also do not know why the stock crapped out.
as for ECA price....
i try to not predict prices like u do therefore i will watch what their next move is.
and please do not come back saying that u are offended , because u are posting stuff that u absolutely do not know about.
it would be like me telling HP how to trade options.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

doctrine said:


> I saw this a year ago (see my post on page 14). Last year, Encana was still realizing $5+ due to hedging. The hedging is running out. They need nat gas to be $6-7/MBTU to go back to $30+ in stock value.


Doc
with all due respect.... that NG price will not be seen anytime soon.
actually that price is trading on Cal 22.
they do not need that price to be profitable by the way .
they are still hedged for what NG price is valued for.
no pun intended at all before Harold tears me a new one lol..
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

Ethan said:


> Shades of Jeffrey Skilling?
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...profanity-on-conference-call/?__lsa=b450-8e1e


:biggrin:
the nature of natural gas traders and businessman.
if u think that is barbaric u have no idea how Barbaric the traders are.
good post Ethan.
actually that should be a wake up call to members here not to be sensitive when others are trying to say that the reality can and will be different than it seems.
nevertheless I will not use this language in this forum though.
have a great weekend


----------



## doctrine

> Doc
> with all due respect.... that NG price will not be seen anytime soon.


I don't disagree. I'm not an expert to what natural gas will do.. so I think I'll stay away.


----------



## PMREdmonton

If you look at the curves for the latest EIA report it looks like we are pretty close to the highest storage level for this time of the year in the last 5 years and only about 200 Bcf off the level last year that caused nat gas to go to 2.00.

IMO, the next couple of years look bleak.

In terms of competitive pricing, coal and nat gas are equivalent around 3.00 or so for nat gas but new US rules make it difficult to open new coal burning power plants and the extra costs associated probably markedly increases the breakeven point to a higher nat gas price in the end.

Regardless, it takes time for these things to happen. LNG export looks like 2015-6 assuming you can change US law on fossil fuel exports. It will take some time to build up the truck fleets for nat gas engines and it will take time for WPT-CMI to be able to churn out a large number of the necessary engines. It will also take a long time to build up enough refueling stations along the interstates before long distance truck fleets would consider the conversion. 

So I still see an industry in horrible disequilibrium and probably will remain so for 2-3 more years at least.

The wet gas plays are much more interesting. Birchcliff just became profitable and have a huge land position of low cost drilling opportunities and now have the infrastructure in place to become a major low cost producer. They just became profitable and I see the stock price markedly increasing over the next couple of years.

I like ECA for the future but not right now and not at this price. I still see losses ahead for them and I still see traders with little patience giving up on it and letting the share price tumble further.

It is very tough times right now in Canadian energy companies.

GLTA. If you can hang tough I'm pretty sure an investment in ECA will have good returns 5 years down the road.


----------



## dubmac

I can wait.
I bought more at 18.50
I'll buy more at 16.50 if it gets there
til then - drip it and forget it.
buy, hold and prosper


----------



## Toronto.gal

Sampson said:


> But that does not reflect spinning Cenovus off. Yeah, Cenovus has been hurting bad lately also, but its not as precipitous of a fall. Add that back into the super company and you are at $50/share. Great value that move has added.


I understand what you're saying Sampson, but what I was thinking about, were the investors that may have bought 5 years ago, at say the $70 to $90 range; they would still be down significantly if they had just held & did nothing else. Also keep in mind the stock split in 2005 @ the 2-for-1 basis when it was trading in the $80's.

I know it's silly to do, but anytime I contemplate buying more of a stock that has already split while I owned it, I always keep the pre-split price in mind, ie: if bought at $40 and currently is trading at $40 after a 2-for-1 split, I see it as an $80 stock. When I look at ENB/POT shares for example, I always multiply the current price by 2 and 3 respectively to get to my original purchase price, as both split after I purchased them, and then, I find only the latter attractive enough to buy at current levels.

Anyway, I agree with Dubmac, but only because I last bought the stock in 2012 & not 5 years ago.


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> If you look at the curves for the latest EIA report it looks like we are pretty close to the highest storage level for this time of the year in the last 5 years and only about 200 Bcf off the level last year that caused nat gas to go to 2.00.
> 
> IMO, the next couple of years look bleak.
> 
> In terms of competitive pricing, coal and nat gas are equivalent around 3.00 or so for nat gas but new US rules make it difficult to open new coal burning power plants and the extra costs associated probably markedly increases the breakeven point to a higher nat gas price in the end.
> 
> Regardless, it takes time for these things to happen. LNG export looks like 2015-6 assuming you can change US law on fossil fuel exports. It will take some time to build up the truck fleets for nat gas engines and it will take time for WPT-CMI to be able to churn out a large number of the necessary engines. It will also take a long time to build up enough refueling stations along the interstates before long distance truck fleets would consider the conversion.
> 
> So I still see an industry in horrible disequilibrium and probably will remain so for 2-3 more years at least.
> 
> The wet gas plays are much more interesting. Birchcliff just became profitable and have a huge land position of low cost drilling opportunities and now have the infrastructure in place to become a major low cost producer. They just became profitable and I see the stock price markedly increasing over the next couple of years.
> 
> I like ECA for the future but not right now and not at this price. I still see losses ahead for them and I still see traders with little patience giving up on it and letting the share price tumble further.
> 
> It is very tough times right now in Canadian energy companies.
> 
> GLTA. If you can hang tough I'm pretty sure an investment in ECA will have good returns 5 years down the road.


PMR
i have more than the EIA curves in my platforms.
yet again u disappoint me with ur explanations and ur theory.
ur coal to Ng price competitiveness is out to lunch.
u have two types of coal blends and u also have to take in consideration coal demand globally delivery costs etc....
u have to look at the y/y nuke output and spring related outages which is yet unknown whether it will be soft or not. 
there is more to it that anyways.
i will not discuss with ya because u keep pretending to know what else is involved in the price of NG and the forward curve and the strip price atm.
i just cannot discuss Ng with ya at all.
when u are ready i will.
as for ECA i abstain from saying what is the right price or what is not to have a good entry.
my last post towards ya about NG pricing.
GL anyway


----------



## PMREdmonton

Well, thanks for nothing which is basically the content of your post.

One more shot at correcting your attitude of you'll go on the old ignore list. I could do without the long staccato type posts with near zero content. I could excuse the writing if not for the content. I could excuse the content if not for writing. The combo of them with high levels of obnoxiousness makes for a pretty lousy poster interaction on a messageboard.

ECA is not a stock I hold or really have ever held outside of a 2-week period last year. I am not a dry natural gas fan. I like the wet plays (Birchcliff and Peyto when it isn't overvalued) and methanex much more in this space.


----------



## Sampson

Toronto.gal said:


> I know it's silly to do, but anytime I contemplate buying more of a stock that has already split while I owned it, I always keep the pre-split price in mind, ie: if bought at $40 and currently is trading at $40 after a 2-for-1 split, I see it as an $80 stock.


I do this too, and sometimes forget about splits. When I re-evaluate by fundamentals, they are typically standardized to shares outstanding anyway, but I think it is easier to remember the nominal price that you bought for.

All that said, but companies have had it rough lately, and the division of crude away from NG hasn't paid out for Cenovus at all - despite very reasonable hedging strategies on their part.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Alot of things going on here.
ECA anticipates high $3.75 range this year and $4 nat gas prices next year.
I watched the Province of Alberta anticipate higher than current prices for Western Select and we know have a 6Billion deficient.
ECA dividend is at 4.4% yield which i feel is way to high for a big company like this especially with this nat gas lull that is over 3 years old.
I think the recent drop is the anticipation of a dividend cut. ill have to weather the storm now but wish i would have taken some off the table on the recent rise.
oh well- win one,lose 3


----------



## Argonaut

I wager the dividend will be cut to 10 cents. Can't think of any reason to be in this stock. Roulette has better odds if you want to gamble.


----------



## dubmac

This analysis is from a Robert Bellinski - (Morningstar). 
I've highlighted a few "positives" in the analysts note. Whether they cut the divvy or not is a good question - but they are sitting a lot of cash! and it sounds like the compay's leadership is under no illusion that they will not be making much money in the near future with gas prices below 4.

Certainly, by most accounts the stock in for rough period over the next few yrs.

It's a sad state of affairs when the best attribute in a company's press release headline is the firm's cash balance.
*Luckily, Encana is flush with cash, at $3.2 billion*, thanks to the multiple asset sales and joint ventures which have
buttressed the company's financial health. Proved reserves fell just over 8%, under Canadian protocols which allow for
forecast prices and costs. The picture was less rosy under SEC requirements, in which reserves would fall 26% due to
the assumption of constant prices as of the end of the year. 

Dry gas production for the fourth quarter was spot on our forecast of 2.9 billion cubic feet per day, while liquids were
slightly below than our estimate, at 37.6 thousand barrels per day. *For 2013, the company expects dry gas to stay
roughly flat, while liquids production should grow to 50-60 mbbl/d, above our estimate of 43 mbbl/d.* While
encouraging, the higher liquids production is not eventful enough to change our valuation. We have calculated, at the
firm level, that Encana's breakeven cost for natural gas (assuming oil prices at $90/bbl) is about $4/mcf. Without
higher gas prices, we continue to believe the firm's share price will continue to stagnate.


and..
PS @Negotiator...
If you respond to my post I will hold my breath and then I will scream!...
so..

puleeze ....
don't.....

comment.


----------



## thenegotiator

Dub
u can scream.....
the post u placed is not bad at all.
the only part i disagree with Morning star is the break even price for dry gas and i believe they are high balling a lot.
it is too early for them to affirm that.
p.s production will remain flat on their end for dry gas.
one more thing.... i think but that one is a very tough call ... divvy's stay where they are.
now go ahead and scream.
cheers


----------



## blin10

problem is, if for some reason dow will sink 300-500 points I can see eca touching 16's and maybe 15's ... it's almost at 52 week low at the top, that can be very problematic


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. divvy's stay where they are.
> 2. now go ahead and scream.


*1.* I had expected a cut in late 2011 and again in early 2012, but nothing happened [so I locked-in some shares in 2012], so maybe your guess is right. But even if they were to cut/reduce it now, it would not exactly be tragic. To double down or not, that is the question. Not all bargain opportunities are created equal, especially in the tricky/volatile energy sector, that's for sure! 

Interesting articles from last summer for those interested - just scroll down to 'natural gas', and then, if you need to, 2 'Cold comfort'. 

http://www.economist.com/printedition/specialreports?year[value][year]=2012&category=76986

*2.* I do that when I realize how little I know, but one can't know it all.

*edit:* change year in link to 2012.


----------



## dubmac

Article describes job cuts at Talisman (TLM) due to poor prospects in gas industry. Goes on to say "Encana's next" - not sure what this will do to share price -probably not good! 

“I think Encana’s going to be next,” he said in a telephone interview. “A lot of their activity is in the higher cost plays. They can’t make money at these prices in the basin.”

http://business.financialpost.com/2...other-canadian-gas-producers/?__lsa=0b11-f473


----------



## thenegotiator

dubmac said:


> Article describes job cuts at Talisman (TLM) due to poor prospects in gas industry. Goes on to say "Encana's next" - not sure what this will do to share price -probably not good!
> 
> “I think Encana’s going to be next,” he said in a telephone interview. “A lot of their activity is in the higher cost plays. They can’t make money at these prices in the basin.”
> 
> http://business.financialpost.com/2...other-canadian-gas-producers/?__lsa=0b11-f473


dub
2 words.
think positive.

the mkt will have a downturn and u will have a good opportunity IMO.
do not scream at me man.
ps.
please do not insinuate that again towards me ?
i like what u post and i like that u look for the right answers.

p.s 
TLM is in reality an oil player more than an NG player.
dig deeper man.

by the way unless u are a position trader why would u worry as to where orv how low ECA will go?
if u are a position trader than the game is different.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

PMREdmonton said:


> Well, thanks for nothing which is basically the content of your post.
> 
> One more shot at correcting your attitude of you'll go on the old ignore list. I could do without the long staccato type posts with near zero content. I could excuse the writing if not for the content. I could excuse the content if not for writing. The combo of them with high levels of obnoxiousness makes for a pretty lousy poster interaction on a messageboard.
> 
> ECA is not a stock I hold or really have ever held outside of a 2-week period last year. I am not a dry natural gas fan. I like the wet plays (Birchcliff and Peyto when it isn't overvalued) and methanex much more in this space.



well
after many days of pondering about i either answer u or not with all ur insults towards me i decided to post where we are in terms of NG storage numbers.
this is a ball park figure and really really close.
by the way the chart was made by an analyst ok?
it also gives u the Y/Y comparatives.
interesting huh?
i did not create an illusion storage figure.
it is obvious that from ur previous posts that u have no idea about wellhead pricing , hedging and neither storage numbers.
therefore u cannot understand where XOM, ECA DEVON, CHK FROM THE BIGGIES are in their figures.man how could i forget anadarko.
specially XOM which nowadays is the largest NA NG producer .
instead of insulting me maybe u should do some research of ur own because most stuff is free out there.
on the other hand i do subscribe to Bentek and MDA earthsat for weather runs.
that surely helps a lot.but .... it costs money.
nevertheless i hope u can lean towards learning something before cracking someones head with a sledgehammer .
enjoy it .
oh and ........ 
GLTY


p.s
some good reading stuff here also.
educate urself a lil about natural gas .
this one is a free website.
good ideas also

http://www.haynesvilleplay.com/


----------



## Toronto.gal

Thanks for the link.

The more you post about ng, the more interested I get.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Thanks for the link.
> 
> The more you post about ng, the more interested I get.


u are welcome.
as always.


----------



## PMREdmonton

TN, if you have more knowledge than the rest of us then you should share it so we all can benefit. That is the raison d'etre for boards like this for individual investors to share knowledge and ideas about stocks.

I don't mind someone showing me that I am wrong about something. I do mind being belittled and then not sharing any useful information in the post other than to take the opposiing opinion.

The website you listed was interesting and had some very good resources attached.

I am not a commodity trader so have no interest in that aspect of the investment directly.

So if you would care to share some information and reasoning that is appreciated.

BTW, which parts of what I wrote do you disagree with? For example, do you disagree that we have a situation with quite a bit of NG stored right now? The EIA chart seems to indicate we are above the 5-year average right now although below last year's levels. This is true despite NG rigs being at a multi-year low. This seems to suggest to me lots of supply coming from the oil rigs which are producing NG and NGL as a byproduct of their drilling.

Do you disagree that demand for NG and NGL will be slow to develop? I think it takes time to develop LNG transport facilities, time to build NG power plants and time to build interstate re-fueling stations for truck fleets. It'll also take time to ramp up production of NG engines. So demand will come but it will take a bit of time to show itself. I figure a good chunk of this demand will materialize by 2015 - do you think it will be much shorter or longer and why?

Lastly I think ECA holds some very good assets but hedges will be getting weaker and weaker as time goes out unless supply/demand mismatch improves and NG prices rise substantially. Why would anyone sign a hedge to buy $6 NG right now with price around $3.25 or so. This will further squeeze profits until the market is in better balance in North America as they cannot get world prices for their commodity (i.e. $11 in Europe). I do think the company has the strength to weather the storm and will come out of it in the end as a strong company with good assets and profitability. However, I still think there may be an opportunity to buy at a lower entry point than we are presented with today. I'd like to get in under $16. I may even sell some puts if the price slips a bit more with higher available premiums due to the recent volatility of the stock.

Anyhow, all opinions either for or against my points are appreciated and will be respected.

GLTA.


----------



## dubmac

Suttles may axe dividend by half.
asset sales, staff reductions etc all on the table.
I averaged down a while ago - my price per share is 19, but I kinda wished that I never bought this one.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...t-dividend-in-radical-change/article14953103/


----------



## doctrine

Encana is the company you'd want to have if natural gas went to world prices. Unfortunately I don't think your capital is safe as most of their contracts are still priced above spot prices and they have massive losses/writedowns in their future. Good to watch for a bottom but I think it might be below current levels still.


----------



## daddybigbucks

I still trade ECA. I know there is a risk that they might cut the dividend. But usually if it goes below $18 i buy and i turn around and sell over $20.
I usually don't do that with companies unless i am confident they will stay afloat.
Natural gas is a great fuel but its just not flowing thru the pipelines with all the storage is full. I think if they can maintain the dividend then keep it just to keep us faithful holders happy and content.
With the US economy booming, whose to say Nat gas prices won't double in a year or two.

I remember 10 years ago, Encana was the opposite. They were making money hands over fist but the dividend was peanuts.


----------



## underemployedactor

They better cut the divvy or this thing will crash faster than you can say Gasland III.


----------



## fatcat

underemployedactor said:


> They better cut the divvy or this thing will crash faster than you can say Gasland III.


that is my understanding also .. the market will be happy if they CUT the dividend ...


----------



## daddybigbucks

fatcat said:


> that is my understanding also .. the market will be happy if they CUT the dividend ...


Encana cut the dividend today to 7c and the market looks happy.
I dont think i am ever right on stock market issues.
I sold ECA in my TFSA this morn but keeping all my others for long term capital gains.


----------



## blin10

that's a huge divi cut...


----------



## HaroldCrump

Stock is up because they are cutting jobs, and also spinning off some of their assets.
A cut to an unsustainable dividend is a good thing, which is why the market likes it.
It improves the company's financial position.


----------



## underemployedactor

^+1. All the announced plans look good for the company and should help the share price.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I had sold the stock in 2011 for a small profit, then got shares back in early 2012 for about 1/2 price @ $17+ & holding since [with few trades in between, which have covered 30% of my investment excluding dividends].

The dividend cut had been expected, hence not a surprise [it's the surprises that markets don't like].


----------



## daddybigbucks

lots of shares being traded. 
Looks like a huge game of tug-o-war.


----------



## blin10

i think they cut divi way too much... yes it makes company pay less but still, a ton of people rely on income


----------



## Homerhomer

I have sold my long term hold this morning, overall between dividends and few short term trades I am down no more than few hundred bucks on it, oh well, moving on ;-)


----------



## HaroldCrump

blin10 said:


> i think they cut divi way too much...


Which may be the right thing to do if they are not expecting significant improvement in their business conditions in the near future.
A large cut to the dividend is better than death by a thousand cuts.
I am not a shareholder, but if I were, I would prefer one large enough cut instead of 2 - 3 cuts over the next 2 years.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nothing sudden about the various changes that has affected ECA since 2010; those 'relying on dividend income' should have moved out of this stock long ago IMHO.


----------



## doctrine

Very rare to see a price go up even after a dividend cut. I wonder if will start to sink longer term. Time will tell.


----------



## daddybigbucks

doctrine said:


> Very rare to see a price go up even after a dividend cut. I wonder if will start to sink longer term. Time will tell.


Have you ran your numbers on ECA?
Wondering if you think its a buy, sell or hold?


----------



## doctrine

It's definitely not a buy for me, last quarter was $0.25 in earnings, but operating earnings are lower at $0.20..that puts them in P/E 20-25 territory. And that's after a 'good news' quarter and a lot of losses previously. Compare that to Suncor (I know, not nat gas) which had $0.95 in operating earnings and $1.13 in net earnings in Q3. That puts them well below a P/E of 10 which is in line with other majors (like Exxon Mobil / Chevron / etc). Encana is a definite 'wait and see' for me, 'check back once every 3 months'. When you see reports like BC doubling its natural gas estimates, it doesn't give a lot of long term optimism to Encana's current assets, and you're going to have to wait a long time for oil production to start. I think Encana might become a bargain, and if it doesn't, no sleep lost here but I don't feel like paying 20-25 times earnings when I can get them for less than 10.


----------



## underemployedactor

No offence, but I don't see any of the above as relevant. If ECA interests you, it is as a turnaround story: the P/E is really not germane at this point. The only comparison to Suncor which has any relevancy might be to compare ECA to Suncor of 5 or so years ago when it slumped after struggling with it's botched takeover of Petro Can's assets and eventually was able to turn itself around.


----------



## doctrine

Where I disagree is that I'm not so sure Encana is value priced yet for a turnaround story. I'd be interested in any numerical analysis produced that shows it has good turnaround value and what it would take to double or triple from here. My gut feel tells me maybe at or under $15 would it start to be a screaming bargain. Certainly under their 52 week low.


----------



## daddybigbucks

i thought it was a pretty good analysis. 
the thing that really puzzles me is the constant upward capital appreciation of Chesapeake CHK nat gas in the States. CHK looks like Encana's twin on the east coast.
Ill have to do some more research and compare.


----------



## daddybigbucks

hot stock tip.... Natural gas is on the rebound- buy encana now while its cheap.








j/k by the way. i have no idea but is nice to see nat gas going up.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Heard they have 300 million a day going into the NE US at record spot prices yesterday-today due to low temps.


----------



## daddybigbucks

heres a chart from US Energy Information Agency.
On this 5 year charts shows 2 years ago the glut of natural gas. 
Last year showed the decline of storage, and this year you can see nat gas being on the lower end of the 5 year minimum. 
maybe next year will be a great year for ECA.


----------



## GoldStone

daddybigbucks said:


> this year you can see nat gas being on the lower end of the 5 year minimum.


Is it a structural change or is just a bout of very cold weather?


----------



## daddybigbucks

GoldStone said:


> Is it a structural change or is just a bout of very cold weather?


not sure.
i am very basic in my knowledge of nat gas but considering the storage was low last year (with normal temps), i am thinking that production has dwindled and now this is the crux between supply and demand.


----------



## GoldStone

daddybigbucks said:


> i am thinking that production has dwindled


Nope. Took me 2s with Google to verify this.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm


----------



## mrPPincer

Fracking tech has released an abundance of natural gas recently but, from what I have gathered on the peripherals of mainsteam media, it seems the initial flush of natural gas on any given site begins to decline after as much as a couple years, so my guess is any glut in natural gas will eventually be levelled out.

Weather this year definitely has to have a part in the reduction of supply as well no doubt.


----------



## GoldStone

Consumption and production forecasts from the link in my previous message. Consumption remains flat on a seasonally adjusted basis. Production is growing steadily year over year.


----------



## AltaRed

I think the charts tell all that is necessary for the short term, next few years at least. US production will be sustained for some time and probably longer than any of us can stay solvent. So do not look to the USA for any relief. The biggest impact on Canadian NG prices may eventually be LNG exports off the west coast, but even then we are probably looking at 2017-2018. 

I had purchased ECA a few years ago on the assumption that I would collect the dividend and wait 2-3 years for that major uptick. That view changed with ECA's dividend cut AND the continued slippage of 'relief'. I sold ECA late last year for tax loss harvesting. I MAY consider ECA again in a year or so IF it goes through a major dip, e.g. $13-15 range, and I see some firm production startup dates on an LNG project.


----------



## mrPPincer

My NG holding is EMA, which is more on the distribution end of things & therefore (maybe?) a little more insulated against low NG prices.
I guess I'll be waiting it out even though supply will be high for a while no doubt.


----------



## daddybigbucks

Sure. Thats the uncertainties of the markets. If it was a sure thing then that would be priced in.

To me, when supply is low and demand is high, price will increase.

Nat gas prices went from $4.11 to $5.11 in two weeks.








at least my encana stock will offset my gas bill.


----------



## daddybigbucks

natural gas futures are up today 12% to $5.68
US drill rigs are down 18% from last year.
Natural gas stockpiles are lowest levels since 2008

all indicators that should send ECA screaming upwards but its down today to $20.07.
What gives?
maybe i'm just too early at the party.


----------



## KaeJS

ECA is one of my favourite companies.

Forget all the hoopla about natgas prices.

If you ask me - NatGas is the future.

Big deal if they cut the dividend - they should. They will raise it again in the future. I'm a huge believer in this company, even though they split apart into ECA and Cenovus....


----------



## fatcat

KaeJS said:


> ECA is one of my favourite companies.
> 
> Forget all the hoopla about natgas prices.
> 
> If you ask me - NatGas is the future.
> 
> Big deal if they cut the dividend - they should. They will raise it again in the future. I'm a huge believer in this company, even though they split apart into ECA and Cenovus....


why not peyto ?


----------



## daddybigbucks

Encana's earnings out before bell tomorrow. They didn't put out a guidance warning this quarter so i'm expecting a great quarter also considering nat. gas price spike.
I also expect alot of selling pressure if it does rise as people are probably lined up trying to get their money out of the flat-lining stock.


----------



## daddybigbucks

earning out today and was not what i was expecting..
kinda like waking up christmas morning as a child and finding a lump of coal in your stocking.

I think Encana's new CEO is an Oil guy and he is trying to change ECA future/vision to what he knows - Oil.
I also think they hedged as much natural gas as they could to finance the switch over to oil.
They hedged so much that the two month natural gas spike didnt related to any extra cash flow.

I liked the previous Encana vision of running a nat.gas pipeline across canada along hwy 1 and have natural gas fuelling stations along the way.

I think encana will do OK in the long run because they will have that stable cash flow from the natural gas hedges but there are alot better oil companies out there.
I sold half my holding today and will reduce more as time goes on.


----------



## Toronto.gal

AltaRed said:


> I sold ECA late last year for tax loss harvesting. *I MAY consider ECA again* in a year or so IF it goes through a major dip, e.g. *$13-15 range*, and I see some firm production startup dates on an LNG project.


Is in that range now, down -45%. Are you buying?


----------



## AltaRed

Toronto.gal said:


> Is in that range now, down -45%. Are you buying?


It has been on my watchlist sub-$15 and I have readjusted that alert to $13. But even if it gets there, the overall market bleeding has to stop and reach a solid bottom for me to buy almost anything. Been in the market too long and learned a few expensive lessons about falling knives and buying on the way down. I will forego the bottom and buy on the way up, even if that takes 3-6 months.

Per the Market-Emotions-Cycle we are not yet at the bottom in energy stocks. P.S. Forgive me for using the first example of the curve I found - even if related to RE.


----------



## supperfly17

Toronto.gal said:


> Is in that range now, down -45%. Are you buying?


Would really love to hear what people have to say about this company as a 5-10 year play. I am planning on taking a dip for about 200 shares.


----------



## Toronto.gal

AltaRed said:


> I will forego the bottom and *buy on the way up*, even if that takes 3-6 months.


Thanks AltaRed.

Good advice, but waiting takes lots of discipline at times like this.

I'm planning to get out of O&G stocks in the next few years and move to water stocks, lol. Considering all the 'disappearing rivers' indeed, I'm not joking. Someone on this forum brought those to my attention a few years ago [OhGreatGuru maybe] - I should have listened more closely to that message. 

*Water: the oil of the future*
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/investing/the-oil-of-the-future/


----------



## AltaRed

supperfly17 said:


> Would really love to hear what people have to say about this company as a 5-10 year play. I am planning on taking a dip for about 200 shares.


The company is fine as it has shed distracting assets and focussed on a few key plays. It is its products that don't have pricing power. ECA found that out when tight gas/shale gas took off in the USA and decreased gas exports out of Canada. They diversified into liquids as they should have......just in time for the tight oil/shale oil boom saturated the oil/liquids market. Strokes of bad luck. ECA will survive this but there are several other more highly leveraged smaller players who may not be around a year from now. A bad time for the Venture exchange.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Seems like a good time to be looking at this one again....anyone got more comments or ideas? I'd love to see it drop to 13, but at 16$ it sure seems like a decent play.....


----------



## fatcat

thepitchedlink said:


> Seems like a good time to be looking at this one again....anyone got more comments or ideas? I'd love to see it drop to 13, but at 16$ it sure seems like a decent play.....


what makes it a good buy at 16 ?


----------



## thepitchedlink

Well, I'm just a newbie at this but I think:
It's getting down near it's 52 week low, it's well below it's 200 day average......unless something really interesting happens, I'm not feeling like it's going to tank alot farther.
The new CEO is an oil guy....so he should know oil and be able to steer them through the next 6months - 2 years period of low oil prices.
They've been switching from dry gas to wet gas/oil....an unfortunate time to do so, but they still have revenue from gas to help them along until oil recovers.
They have been selling off gas fields and infrastructure for a while now and putting cash in the bank....sounds like most of the efforts will be put into 4 oil properties....the latest information release said a spending budget of 2.8B for 2015

So, I'm thinking that they are poised to start working these 4 properties for oil...but oil's in the dumper.....so I'm expecting a press release that will say they are scaling back that 2.8B, keep it in the bank for a while. Spend less now, use that money and the revenue from Nat Gas to hold them over and be in a great position for when oil recovers....

Anyway, my .02$ What's anyone else think?


----------



## humble_pie

some have criticized encana's dazzling $7.1 billion 2014 payment for texas-based upstart Athlon Energy, a company that had only IPO'd one year previously.

athlon's prize was the Permian basin oil deposits, accessible by lower-cost vertical drilling as opposed to horizontal drilling & fracking used with other texas shale deposits such as eagle ford.

still, folks gasped over the Athlon price tag & some groaned that ECA had grotesquely overpaid.

nor has ECA's strategic shift from gas back to oil in recent years sat well in the context of plunging crude prices. All in all, perhaps not the best of times for this canadian veteran.


----------



## fatcat

thepitchedlink said:


> Well, I'm just a newbie at this but I think:
> It's getting down near it's 52 week low, it's well below it's 200 day average......unless something really interesting happens, I'm not feeling like it's going to tank alot farther.
> The new CEO is an oil guy....so he should know oil and be able to steer them through the next 6months - 2 years period of low oil prices.
> They've been switching from dry gas to wet gas/oil....an unfortunate time to do so, but they still have revenue from gas to help them along until oil recovers.
> They have been selling off gas fields and infrastructure for a while now and putting cash in the bank....sounds like most of the efforts will be put into 4 oil properties....the latest information release said a spending budget of 2.8B for 2015
> 
> So, I'm thinking that they are poised to start working these 4 properties for oil...but oil's in the dumper.....so I'm expecting a press release that will say they are scaling back that 2.8B, keep it in the bank for a while. Spend less now, use that money and the revenue from Nat Gas to hold them over and be in a great position for when oil recovers....
> 
> Anyway, my .02$ What's anyone else think?


fair enough ...it's interesting how so many of us use the 52 week low as a buy signal as though what a stock does in a year somehow indicates a floor ... i am no different

i keep reading that tourmaline and peyto are the low-gas-price go-to producers

i have keyera ... trying to make a little in the middle of the stream and let the producers do the heavy lifting


----------



## thepitchedlink

Well, well. Any thought folks?


----------



## My Own Advisor

Toronto.gal said:


> *Water: the oil of the future*
> http://www.canadianbusiness.com/investing/the-oil-of-the-future/


Which ones T.Gal?

Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR)
Pure Technologies Ltd. (TSX: PUR)
Pentair Ltd. (NYSE: PNR)
Suez Environnement (EPA: SEV)
PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PHO)

Curious!
P/E: N/A | Yield: 0.4% 1-year total return (CA$): 29.3%
This ETF has a 65% weighting to industrials.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I don't own either of the above, but I do own 1 US name in this space, with intent to increase to 2 or 3.

Which of the above are you considering?


----------



## BrentPv2

So at sub $15 what do people think of it now, or is Petro still dropping?


----------



## daddybigbucks

the only reason it dropped was because of the deal financing.
Bad move UNLESS they needed the money badly. And if they needed the money badly then they are not a good buy.
This bought financing will cost 24Million dollars extra just to pay out dividends for the extra shares.

stuttles is going to drive this great company into the ground.

But what do I know.


----------



## hboy43

daddybigbucks said:


> the only reason it dropped was because of the deal financing.
> Bad move UNLESS they needed the money badly. And if they needed the money badly then they are not a good buy.


Another explanation is he is getting ready to do what I have done, sell that which dropped 50%, in this case ECA shares, and buy that which dropped 75 to 95%, in this case other distressed assets in the oil patch.

If you think the store is being given away, buy some more. If it has to be given away, it might as well be given away to you, no?

hboy43


----------



## BrentPv2

I'm looking for 5yr holdings, and price is at a near 4-5yr low.


----------



## daddybigbucks

hboy43 said:


> Another explanation is he is getting ready to do what I have done, sell that which dropped 50%, in this case ECA shares, and buy that which dropped 75 to 95%, in this case other distressed assets in the oil patch.
> 
> If you think the store is being given away, buy some more. If it has to be given away, it might as well be given away to you, no?
> 
> hboy43


very good analogy. 
but I'm not so sure its a good strategy. You don't screw your longtime shareholders to build an empire.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Hhhmmm, might be a new low here this morning ......

Guess it might have something to do with oil looking for a new basement!!!!!:biggrin:


----------



## KaeJS

Sold 50 Naked Puts for an April 17 Expiry.
Strike of $14. $0.45 Premium.


----------



## thepitchedlink

I'm just trying to learn the options game....can you give me a quick explanation as to your plan here and what you think (hope) will happen....thanks


----------



## KaeJS

Sure. I am not sure of your level of options knowledge so I will try to make this more in depth than basic. I don't mean to offend you if you know some of this stuff.

So - Basically, I think that ECA is worth $14. I wouldn't mind buying ECA at $14 and going long on the stock. Because of this, I am comfortable writing Naked Puts for a $14 Strike. By writing Naked Puts, it means that I do not own the stock but if the stock is under $14 on April 17/2015 then I am obligated to buy it.

I received $2190.05 in premiums (after commissions) for writing these puts. I wrote 50 contracts for a premium of $0.45. Each contract is worth 100 shares.

$0.45 x 50 contracts = $2250. My commissions were $59.05.

Now, my hope is that ECA will be somewhere around $13.75 or so on April 17, 2015. This will allow me to take posession of the shares and then write a covered call for a Strike Price of $14 on the May 2015 contract. However, if ECA is over $14 on April 17, 2015, then I collected $2190.05 for essentially doing nothing.

Personally? I think ECA will be over $14 on April 17.
If it is under $13.25, I will not be too happy.
If it is around $13.75, that is perfect.

Obviously, the ideal scenario would be to have ECA finish April 17th trading day at $13.99. But, one could only hope.


----------



## Squash500

KaeJS said:


> Sure. I am not sure of your level of options knowledge so I will try to make this more in depth than basic. I don't mean to offend you if you know some of this stuff.
> 
> So - Basically, I think that ECA is worth $14. I wouldn't mind buying ECA at $14 and going long on the stock. Because of this, I am comfortable writing Naked Puts for a $14 Strike. By writing Naked Puts, it means that I do not own the stock but if the stock is under $14 on April 17/2015 then I am obligated to buy it.
> 
> I received $2190.05 in premiums (after commissions) for writing these puts. I wrote 50 contracts for a premium of $0.45. Each contract is worth 100 shares.
> 
> $0.45 x 50 contracts = $2250. My commissions were $59.05.
> 
> Now, my hope is that ECA will be somewhere around $13.75 or so on April 17, 2015. This will allow me to take posession of the shares and then write a covered call for a Strike Price of $14 on the May 2015 contract. However, if ECA is over $14 on April 17, 2015, then I collected $2190.05 for essentially doing nothing.
> 
> Personally? I think ECA will be over $14 on April 17.
> If it is under $13.25, I will not be too happy.
> If it is around $13.75, that is perfect.
> 
> Obviously, the ideal scenario would be to have ECA finish April 17th trading day at $13.99. But, one could only hope.


 Thanks KJS. I'll follow this trade as well. Thanks for posting your trades. Last thing. *How much commission do you pay per contract?*

I believe at TDDI, the commission is $9.99 plus $1.25 per contract, which IMHO can get very expensive?


----------



## KaeJS

Squash, 

Commissions for options at Questrade are $9.95 + $1/contract.

For the ECA trade, my total commissions were $59.95 as I sold 50 contracts. Most people do not sell this many contracts. In fact, this is the first time I have sold this many.

Squash, as you seem interested, you can view my Stock Trades Spreadsheet here: My Spreadsheet

I used to have this in my signature but took it out. I have replaced it for the world to see once again.


----------



## supperfly17

I think the situation in Yemen will cause oil prices to go up again, which will have an effect on options/puts/calls etc. Good luck either way.


----------



## Squash500

KaeJS said:


> Squash,
> 
> Commissions for options at Questrade are $9.95 + $1/contract.
> 
> For the ECA trade, my total commissions were $59.95 as I sold 50 contracts. Most people do not sell this many contracts. In fact, this is the first time I have sold this many.
> 
> *Squash, as you seem interested, you can view my Stock Trades Spreadsheet here:* My Spreadsheet
> 
> I used to have this in my signature but took it out. I have replaced it for the world to see once again.


*Thanks for adding your spreadsheet KJS*. Much appreciated. Thanks again for all the help that you've given me with everything. I find that I'm learning much more by following your specific trades, then just by reading general examples in options text books, where they just refer to *Stock X* etc.

Thanks again!!


----------



## thepitchedlink

New 52 week low this morning. I'm sure the Nexan pipe break isn't helping. Anyone averaging down or still to nervous about oil in general?


----------



## daddybigbucks

I recently bought back a few lots but I don't understand ECA at all right now so no more buying for me.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Dipping again here at opening.....I don't understand it either


----------



## jerryhung

I don't understand either
why is it falling harder than other O&G stocks... CPG is bad, ECA is worse


----------



## BrentPv2

jerryhung said:


> I don't understand either
> why is it falling harder than other O&G stocks... CPG is bad, ECA is worse


Probably because they deal only in Bitumen extraction, where as the others have downstream processing operations to shore up their funds.

oops, This is all wrong, I had been looking at ATH right before I posted, Right answer of ATH, btw down to 1.66, BUT not ECA.


----------



## AltaRed

ECA is primarily gas and lighter oil.


----------



## BrentPv2

AltaRed said:


> ECA is primarily gas and lighter oil.


Totally right, as I just edited, I was looking at ATH while also reading this. ATH is the SAGD producer.


----------



## OnlyMyOpinion

Q2 results out, down 7-8% to $10.xx this morning


----------



## daddybigbucks

Now I understand the drop last week. Must have been leaks.


----------



## jerryhung

ECA sucks


----------



## doctrine

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that not only are they losing money, they're investing all of their capital rapidly into losing more money. But at least liquids production is at a 7 year high for them.


----------



## dubmac

This is a summary derived from a Morningstar report - some good information. Last sentence suggests shares are undervalued...

David Meats, Analyst, 24 July 2015 - Investment Thesis
After a busy year of acquisitions and divestitures, Encana has emerged with one of the highest-quality E&P portfolios in our coverage universe. The firm’s Tier 1 acreage includes prime real estate in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Montney, and Duvernay plays. These are among the most cost-advantaged shales in North America and returns on new wells are extremely impressive, even in the current commodity price environment. At the current run-rate it will take at least 20 years to work through the 9,000 undrilled well locations in the company’s inventory. Some acceleration is likely if prices recover in line with our forecasts, but even so, there’s no shortage of attractive geology at management’s disposal. *If anything, the tremendous success of 2014’s portfolio shake-up is also Encana’s biggest challenge, because the firm has ended up with more attractive assets than it has the capital to efficiently develop. As a result, certain positions have been sidelined, and look like attractive divestiture candidates. While we do not incorporate unannounced asset sales in our base-case analysis, it is likely that management will announce one to two monetizations in the next one to two years. That creates a credible bull scenario with more available development capital and a leaner, meaner Encana.* As such, we’d argue the risk to our $12 per share valuation is skewed to the upside. But even without divestitures, the firm is in an enviable position. It has no shortage of liquidity, with more than $3 billion available on its credit facility (which is guaranteed through 2020, without redetermination risk). T*he high quality and breadth of its asset portfolio will enable the firm to consistently drill lucrative wells for many years, even in a cheaper oil environment. We believe the market is failing to appreciate the company’s seismic shift from mediocre natural gas to best-in-class liquids assets, and we’d consider the shares undervalued at the current level.*


----------



## thepitchedlink

Thanks for posting that, interesting info


----------



## jerryhung

dubmac said:


> This is a summary derived from a Morningstar report - some good information. Last sentence suggests shares are undervalued...
> 
> David Meats, Analyst, 24 July 2015 - Investment Thesis
> After a busy year of acquisitions and divestitures, Encana has emerged with one of the highest-quality E&P portfolios in our coverage universe. The firm’s Tier 1 acreage includes prime real estate in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Montney, and Duvernay plays. These are among the most cost-advantaged shales in North America and returns on new wells are extremely impressive, even in the current commodity price environment. At the current run-rate it will take at least 20 years to work through the 9,000 undrilled well locations in the company’s inventory. Some acceleration is likely if prices recover in line with our forecasts, but even so, there’s no shortage of attractive geology at management’s disposal. *If anything, the tremendous success of 2014’s portfolio shake-up is also Encana’s biggest challenge, because the firm has ended up with more attractive assets than it has the capital to efficiently develop. As a result, certain positions have been sidelined, and look like attractive divestiture candidates. While we do not incorporate unannounced asset sales in our base-case analysis, it is likely that management will announce one to two monetizations in the next one to two years. That creates a credible bull scenario with more available development capital and a leaner, meaner Encana.* As such, we’d argue the risk to our $12 per share valuation is skewed to the upside. But even without divestitures, the firm is in an enviable position. It has no shortage of liquidity, with more than $3 billion available on its credit facility (which is guaranteed through 2020, without redetermination risk). T*he high quality and breadth of its asset portfolio will enable the firm to consistently drill lucrative wells for many years, even in a cheaper oil environment. We believe the market is failing to appreciate the company’s seismic shift from mediocre natural gas to best-in-class liquids assets, and we’d consider the shares undervalued at the current level.*


Good to hear some GOOD news, ha, because knowing I bought a stock and it bombed to 2002 low's (yes, 13 years ago) is not comforting  just my luck, and all those who bought ECA recently
XOM is "only" at 2012 low's in comparison


----------



## daddybigbucks

i just reviewed the q2 and compared to last year's, it looks like 2 different companies.
ECA is looking its ugliest ever.


ill be a buyer at $4.80. I don't think it will reach that but that's what my calcs spit out at this time.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Wow, just keeps sinking


----------



## avrex

I looked at this stock in January 2015 and said *No*. 
Boy, am I glad I didn't buy then.

Down another 7 % today and down 47 % YTD.

Perhaps it's approaching 'buy' territory.  
I'll need to take another look at this one.


----------



## jerryhung

I hate how it drops WAY more than the oil drop, almost for no reason
-7% today is another example

I don't know why I bought this...now it'll take 10 years to recover probably. Things change so fast in 30 days


----------



## thepitchedlink

jerryhung said:


> I hate how it drops WAY more than the oil drop, almost for no reason
> -7% today is another example
> 
> I don't know why I bought this...now it'll take 10 years to recover probably. Things change so fast in 30 days


I don't think it will be 10 years....as long as it survives as a company it will recover when oil does....


----------



## martinv

Bought ECA August 2011 @ $ 23.50. Perhaps, one day I will learn to sell. At 66, I figure 15 years to go ( if all goes well) before my expiry date on this earth.
Here's to a turn around for ECA in the next 15 years.


----------



## thepitchedlink

How you guys feeling about this one? It's my biggest looser right now, but thinking I should be doubling down.....how much trouble does everyone think it's in?


----------



## thepitchedlink

Any thoughts??


----------



## AltaRed

thepitchedlink said:


> Any thoughts??


I wouldn't be buying any time soon. IMO, it is more likely to go lower (than higher) over the next 30-45 days due to tax loss selling. Also, Nat Gas prices appear to be going nowhere amid investor sentiment on El Nino effects. It is a crap shoot depending on winter severity in the East. IMO, a speculative buy at best.


----------



## thepitchedlink

AltaRed said:


> I wouldn't be buying any time soon. IMO, it is more likely to go lower (than higher) over the next 30-45 days due to tax loss selling. Also, Nat Gas prices appear to be going nowhere amid investor sentiment on El Nino effects. It is a crap shoot depending on winter severity in the East. IMO, a speculative buy at best.


Thanks for the insight...I'm not looking to buy any more right now....just trying to figure if it's worth holding or should I just tax sell it off and move the $ to something smarter...


----------



## londoncalling

AltaRed said:


> I wouldn't be buying any time soon. IMO, it is more likely to go lower (than higher) over the next 30-45 days due to tax loss selling. Also, Nat Gas prices appear to be going nowhere amid investor sentiment on El Nino effects. It is a crap shoot depending on winter severity in the East. IMO, a speculative buy at best.


If the tax loss harvesting drives it way down I may add it to things I would like in my Christmas letter to Santa.


----------



## thepitchedlink

Aahhh, that hurt a bit...got rid of it....and I move closer to being a full potato....


----------



## KaeJS

Thinking about writing some puts for this week.
Maybe some $8 puts for December 18th expiry... 100 contracts...


----------



## sags

They cut their dividend to *6 cents a yea*r.......a 79% cut this morning.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/14/Encana-slashes-payout-79-trims-2016-spending-budget.aspx


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## jargey3000

anybody like ECA ...." going forward", as they say...? Trading today at $7.40 (+3%)


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## dubmac

jargey3000 said:


> anybody like ECA ...." going forward", as they say...? Trading today at $7.40 (+3%)


ECA's earnings per share are -7.49 from what I can tell (Google finance). How long can a company stay in business when it's hemorrhaging like that? I know that they have quite a bit of $ set aside (I think that they have around 3 billion after selling some properties), but still...this one is seems scary to me. Do your homework. My advisor told me today that she is expecting a "Major correction" in 2016 - likely earlier than later. If you must buy, then buy then.


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## AltaRed

In the short term, earnings is not a meaningful number in resource based industries. That is because of the DD&A that gets assigned to the depleting resource on each unit produced (otherwise known as UOP or Unit of Production to insiders). Cash flow/share or EBITDA/share is a more meaningful number on the operational viability of the enterprise. 

DD&A on its own is a measure of capital efficiency. The larger the number, the more capital that has been used (wasted) in the exploration, development and production of the resource.

Longer term of course, such as a full business cycle, earnings ARE important because shareholders expect a Return on Equity... or at least a ROCE (Return on Capital Employed).


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## dubmac

...blub...blub..blub...
ECA getting close to $4.
Never been this low in my research.


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## AltaRed

Have not looked at it in a few years....sorry.


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## dubmac

ECA at an all time low. $4 is not far off. Anyone see life in this gassy corpse in the future?


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## thepitchedlink

I'm staying away...got burned once....but I've not looked at it again at these levels


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## jargey3000

(May 31/16) just noticed it's up about 5% today, and now in the $10.50 range. Comments ...


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## hboy43

jargey3000 said:


> (May 31/16) just noticed it's up about 5% today, and now in the $10.50 range. Comments ...


It will soon be time to give some back, largest holding as of today at 11%, though am only up 20% on the ACB (though with average hold time under 2 years, 20% looks better). Maybe start selling around $12.

hboy43


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## Steve Divi

ECA.TO Had some good news. I bought this one at the worst time a couple of years ago. I'm hoping they can crawl back to my break even price of $15. At least the still pay a small Dividend


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## amack081

I also made my initial purchase around a year ago at $11.27. Dividend cut. Averaged down when the stock started to recover at $7. I debated selling at a loss but it makes up roughly 7.5% of my portfolio and figured I should hold based on expected oil recovery and management plan to rectify their loss. They succeeded yesterday which increases my optimism.


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## jargey3000

jargey3000 said:


> (May 31/16) just noticed it's up about 5% today, and now in the $10.50 range. Comments ...


woulda coulda shoulda back in May....over $14 now.....oh well....


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## hollyhunter

RSI is trading near to 66.56 level with positive bias, MACD and Signal line is sustaining above the zero level line, an upward movement is expected. Six months target: 17.95


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## humble_pie

hollyhunter said:


> RSI is trading near to 66.56 level with positive bias, MACD and Signal line is sustaining above the zero level line, an upward movement is expected. Six months target: 17.95



bon job encore une fois
merci notre bingo-robo


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## MoneyB

*bought and sold this months ago*

But appearntly its still going up and will reach 20-30 next year. A good play as a big bird told me


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## humble_pie

seriously?
.


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## hboy54

hboy43 said:


> It will soon be time to give some back, largest holding as of today at 11%, though am only up 20% on the ACB (though with average hold time under 2 years, 20% looks better). Maybe start selling around $12.
> 
> hboy43


I can report that I gave some back (about 30% of holdings) at just under $13.

Everyone seems to love ECA these days. My initial positions came years ago around $20. For years and years, ECA could have been had around $18 to about $25. After presumably buying some assets highish (when oil was ~$100), selling others lowish (at these recent low oil prices) to move away from gas and get oilier, and recent dilution, I have a hard time believing they will in the short to intermediate term deserve to be at $20 to $25 again.

So, I think more will go $17ish.

hboy54


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## like_to_retire

Encana (ECA:TSX) to Establish Corporate Domicile in the U.S.

CALGARY, Oct. 31, 2019 /CNW/ - Encana Corporation (NYSE,TSX: ECA) today announced its intention to establish corporate domicile in the United States. The move, which requires shareholder, stock exchange and court approval, is expected to occur in early 2020. As part of this process, the new company will rebrand under the name Ovintiv Inc. Additional information will be available on the Company's third quarter 2019 financial and operating results conference call, scheduled for today at 7 a.m. MT (9 a.m. ET).

ltr


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## dubmac

CEO Suttles is a Texan with a long pedigree in O&G industry in the US. The fact that they are moving to the US is surprising, but not a surprise. "A domicile in the United States will expose our Company to increasingly larger pools of investment in U.S. index funds and passively managed accounts, as well as better align us with our U.S. peers." says their website. The new name is bizarre - where'd that come from?


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## dubmac

CEO Suttles is a Texan with a long pedigree in O&G industry in the US. The fact that they are moving to the US is surprising, but not a surprise. "A domicile in the United States will expose our Company to increasingly larger pools of investment in U.S. index funds and passively managed accounts, as well as better align us with our U.S. peers." says their website. The new name is bizarre - where'd that come from?

poor, poor calgary. more families, and more $ exit south....


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## jargey3000

dubmac said:


> poor, poor calgary. more families, and more $ exit south....


Really?.....they'll learn to get used it, I hope.....we've had to, over the years, here in NL.....


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## nobleea

hmph. guess corporate tax cuts don't encourage investment and jobs...

The Bow is going to be like 80% empty now.


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## like_to_retire

I guess the investors don't like it as they're down about 7.5% now.

They already pay their dividend in US$, so no change there.

Another Canadian company lost. 

ltr


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## AltaRed

dubmac said:


> poor, poor calgary. more families, and more $ exit south....


Some for sure. The senior people and some direct reports (corporate HQ) will transfer while supporting staff will mostly be laid off. A few hundred people perhaps? But the operating organization and business services supporting them will remain.

Stock might be down primarily because the new stock will no longer qualify for the DTC and Cdn equity funds will no longer be able to hold the stock.


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## Mechanic

Hard to believe the way Canada's resource industry is being destroyed, I would have never imagined this could happen. I wonder how the government will fund it's expenditures as investment continues leaving Canada.


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## AltaRed

Mechanic said:


> Hard to believe the way Canada's resource industry is being destroyed, I would have never imagined this could happen. I wonder how the government will fund it's expenditures as investment continues leaving Canada.


I think it is "likely" unprecedented that an entire industry has been beaten down for as long as it has, i.e. 5 years and counting at least another 2 years (2022) until some oil pipeline takeaway capacity is in place. Gas has a longer way to go until an LNG plant (or two) is up and running. Maybe forestry has had a cycle like that but I don't really know. EnCana is just one of the big names following the retreat of the multi-nationals like Total, BP, Shell, COP, etc. 

The bleed has been going on continuously such as Citadel completing the move of its last rig to Texas Canada's loss is Texas' gain. It takes time for an entire industry to recover, so Canada's GDP potential will be constrained for some time.


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## Eder

The thing is Encana and others make news when their tax base moves to the USA but 100's of small size oil related support businesses have left Canada for greener pastures in the last 5 years...they didn't have time to wait for rational government. Won't be long before we are begging toilet paper from rich American tourists visiting Banff.


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## like_to_retire

Mechanic said:


> I wonder how the government will fund it's expenditures as investment continues leaving Canada.


Canadian Business Investment Drops To 25-Year Low.

_.... it’s a bit alarming to hear that business investment, as a share of Canada’s economy, has dropped to its lowest levels since the mid-1990s, when the country was pulling out of a particularly prolonged recession, and businesses weren’t in the greatest shape for investing.
“That is simply not normal at this advanced stage of the business cycle,” said Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter. After a decade of solid economic growth following the financial crisis, Canadian business investment should be riding high ― as it is, right now, in the U.S.

_

ltr


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## sags

US business investing is contracting as well. Oil fracking companies are trying to avoid bankruptcy. Oil prices fell as US inventory rises. 

There is a projected surplus of oil until after 2020. North American oil producers are struggling.

The Trump tax cuts boosted the economy for awhile but have petered out. The trade war with China is hurting the US.

North American economies are slowing down. It isn't a made in Canada problem.


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## dubmac

these are good points Sags & I agree. I have read that many of the O&G companies in the US (especially in NE) are hurting.
I can only guess that any struggling North American O&G company will stand a greater chance of survival if they set up shop in the US rather than in pipeline-starved, politically neutered, and land-locked Alberta.


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## like_to_retire

sags said:


> The Trump tax cuts boosted the economy for awhile but have petered out.


I guess you didn't look at the graph in the url I referenced. I'll attach it below.

The only petering out seems to be Canada. Do you just make up the stuff you post?









ltr


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## Eder

https://www.bloombergquint.com/busi...ish-u-s-domicile-as-permian-oil-output-surges

Canada is becoming a dirty word in the oil patch.


“Canada is no longer viewed as a world-class destination for capital

We should be ashamed of how Canadians have been treated. FWIW Encana most likely will be a buy once the transition is complete...no more dealing with idiots.


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## sags

like_to_retire said:


> I guess you didn't look at the graph in the url I referenced. I'll attach it below.
> 
> The only petering out seems to be Canada. Do you just make up the stuff you post?
> 
> View attachment 19756
> 
> 
> ltr


Your graph is 3 years old.


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## like_to_retire

sags said:


> Your graph is 3 years old.


How do you figure that? It looks like the scale is to 2019 to me?

ltr


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## sags

Your right......my mistake.


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## james4beach

Encana has been renamed Ovintiv, and the corporate domicile has moved to the US.

The stock changes are kind of funky. First, they did a 5:1 reverse split, so the share price went from $4.96 to $24.80

Then, ECA was renamed to OVV

It's still trading in Canada. If this is now a US domiciled corp, why does it trade in Canada? Do we have other US domiciled corporations trading on our exchange?


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## james4beach

By the way, the price has plummeted sharply since they made these changes. OVV most recently traded at 21.32 which is down a whopping 14% since the reverse split just a few days ago.


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## Eclectic12

james4beach said:


> ... It's still trading in Canada. If this is now a US domiciled corp, why does it trade in Canada? Do we have other US domiciled corporations trading on our exchange?


Thinking back .... I can recall the Vancouver software company that domiciled in Las Vegas while 98% of staff and offices were in Vancouver. Their stock traded in Canada despite the US domicile. It cut down on US protectionism stifling sales as they on paper were a US company. At the time, they didn't have a US listing for years but I stopped following them so it is possible a US listing was added later.

A Canadian domiciled junior O&G company hired a US CEO to turn around the company. When he convinced the board to move the head office to his US state to save on commute/lodging allowance, state law forced the domicile to become the US. Their stock kept trading in Canada only .... though the buyout by a larger Canadian domiciled O&G company may have meant they skipped getting listed on a US exchange.

No idea of what's out there now for US domiciled companies only trading on a Canadian exchange but it's not the first time.


As for the reverse split, my guess is that they plan to list on a US exchange where the reverse split may make it easier to meet listing requirements and/or give more leeway to avoid a too low share price. IIRC, the Canadian exchange allows lower stock prices before de-listing may become a possibility.


Cheers


*PS*
My guess is they will want to keep their Canadian listing and add a US listing to it.


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## james4beach

It sounds like Encana's CEO is also hoping to become part of America's larger 'passive capital pools'. I think that is a hope for being part of indexes, and therefore having passive index investors buy up large amounts of the stock, which is a more powerful force in the US than Canada.

I think this is a trick with a short time horizon, to let the owners and insiders dump lots of stock. I think the plan is to rebrand, temporarily boost the share price so it doesn't look like a turd, and then get US index investors to passively buy it while it's still solvent.

They are probably carefully tuning the shares to meet index listing criteria.

Eventually, Ovintiv will no longer qualify for index inclusion. Since this effect can't last very long, it seems designed to allow insiders and executives to dump their shares to the public. IMO.


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## james4beach

Now that I think about it, this doesn't have to be about executives dumping shares, but more likely the major shareholders. They probably want out, but of course they would pound the price lower if they aggressively dumped shares under current conditions.

My theory is that they want US passive index investors to add liquidity (buying pressure) which would then allow them to dump their shares more easily. What happens to the company in a year or two is of no concern; I think the point is to exit.

Capitalism at its best!


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## doctrine

This stock is trash, sorry to say. New all time lows when most O&G are well above last falls lows, sometimes as much as 30% above In a sector that is underperforming, OVV/ENC is the worst. They are so hated in Canada they thought moving to the US might help, but sorry to say that most US investors know a crappy company when they see it. Indexing and passive funds are no match for the sharks that pounce on overlevered oil companies. Easy money.


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## MrBlackhill

Any recent opinion on this one?

I've bought it after the crash and it seems to keep moving up no matter what.

I've been contrarian on this one because I know all the bad things being said about this stock and its move to the US, but it's currently my best position post-crash... I'm not planning on holding long, though.


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## hboy54

MrBlackhill said:


> Any recent opinion on this one?
> 
> I've bought it after the crash and it seems to keep moving up no matter what.
> 
> I've been contrarian on this one because I know all the bad things being said about this stock and its move to the US, but it's currently my best position post-crash... I'm not planning on holding long, though.
> 
> View attachment 20392


My biggest holding a right now. I don't think oil and gas is quite done yet. All the cuts in capital spending in the sector should lead to falling supply and higher commodity prices eventually. Sitting at $16 in a 4 year range of about $95-$3 gives some scope for a better SP I think. I sold some at $65 and $85 3 or 4 years ago. My cost base is around $20 these days having added many shares as my paper losses mounted.

Nothing unique here, all kinds of oil and gas shares traded at 1/5th to 1/50th multi year highs recently. Is it different this time?


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## doctrine

I think there is value in Canadian oil and gas, with even large caps capable of doubling and many mid caps easily capable of multi-baggers. 

However, OVV is not one of them for me, a large part of their asset base was purchased in the peak of the oil boom as they tried to reposition from dry gas. They literally wrote off half of the company's equity last quarter. If their debt was maybe half what they have now, it would still be risky.

Oil is so beat up that I think the best approach is a basket, the upside is so huge that you can spread your risk around because in a $60 oil environment, everything will go up, and you can avoid operational issues or missing the most torquey name. OVV still not on that list for me though, although if they survive the return will probably be good.


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## hboy54

doctrine said:


> I think there is value in Canadian oil and gas, with even large caps capable of doubling and many mid caps easily capable of multi-baggers.
> 
> However, OVV is not one of them for me, a large part of their asset base was purchased in the peak of the oil boom as they tried to reposition from dry gas. They literally wrote off half of the company's equity last quarter. If their debt was maybe half what they have now, it would still be risky.
> 
> Oil is so beat up that I think the best approach is a basket, the upside is so huge that you can spread your risk around because in a $60 oil environment, everything will go up, and you can avoid operational issues or missing the most torquey name. OVV still not on that list for me though, although if they survive the return will probably be good.


Much of it's status as largest position is due to it being up 400% from March whereas the other two energy are on only up 150% and 200%. Fun times in the energy patch. I think in hindsight, buying energy in March will work out like buying TECK.B at under $5 (two opportunities) worked out. I won't do that well because my cost bases are well over the March numbers, but I am creeping up on break even. PEY has had a nice run this past month and is only around $3 in a five year range of about $1-$38.


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