# Westernzagros Resources Ltd. (WZR.V)



## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

I noticed some posts about this stock in some other threads so I thought I'd post.

I don't currently own this stock but have before and i tend to follow it. It's very volatile and obviously a very risky play.

It's down over 10 percent today to 1.10 and I'm thinking of jumping back in.... Anyone know why it dropped so much today?


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Because it's a 1.10 stock?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

the company has not yet released flow test results at kurdamir so today's action was based on speculation. Apparently there are some who believe, following a corporate presentation at a conference in london, that the well will flow less than had been anticipated. If this sounds hazy, yes indeed, it is totally hazy. I for one would never trade on rumours like this.

have you checked out the company's website.

http://www.westernzagros.com/

in particular, check out the new corporate presentation linked to the home page. I attempted to insert here the table of WZR wells in progress in kurdistan, but the cmf forum editor restricts the KB size of images that can be imported to a very small size. Apparently the table exceeds the allowed size.

you'll find this table on page 7 of the corporate presentation. As you'll note, it is early days yet for WZR's projected schedule of activity in the region. They have only recently succeeded in obtaining the last of the crucial big financing.

i'm interested to see the news that will follow about the kurdamir testing, probably next week. I do own western zagros in tfsa, so i'm down at present although not worried for the long term. However, i'll wait for the announcement in an authentic news release before buying any more.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

news release is out. Confirms low permeability in the fracture zone. There are other reservoirs still to test in this well.

congrats to the smart listeners - not in this forum, evidently - who bolted yesterday. They'll be back. Longterm western zagros has numerous good prospects in kurdistan.

believe i'll be looking for buy points ...

http://www.westernzagros.com/2012/1...meability-cretaceous-reservoir-at-kurdamir-2/


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Down to 1.02 in early traiding today..

Thanks for the info Hp.. I'll have a look at that site!


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i was buying @ 1.04. Might buy more.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> i was buying @ 1.04. Might buy more.


Been on a bit of a tear lately!! Up over 10% today...1.43! you've made some money HP


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Down almost 13% today. The only news I see is that they got some decent test results back from one of thier sites. Not sure why but I opened up a small position of 1k shares.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

there's plenty of news. Evidently there's a difference of opinion between the geologists & petroleum engineers at wzr vs the geos & engineers at talisman.

i bought another 6000 @ 1.10 1st thing this am to hold 12000 sh (of the previous lot bt @ 1.04 to hold 10,000 i'd sold 4000 @ 1.39 a few days later, so started out early this am with 6000 shares-eager-to-buy-more.)

there's enough dispute that a person who's not on the site armed with a post-grad degree plus 10 years drilling experience cannot really know what's going on.

talisman's view may have merit after all. Additional testing looks to run for next several months, into late winter/early spring 2013. 

western zagross does own a number of other properties in kurdistan region in addition to kurdamir, this giant well whose oil they are having trouble unlocking. The way i see it, some bigger company is going to take em out. There's probably greater political risk for an oil exploration company in kurdistan than there is risk that the oil won't be there.

biggest shareholder in wzr is crest energy, the bush family private energy company.


EDIT 12:33 pm - these shares are in tfsa & the wzr i bought early this am @ 1.10 is up to 1.28. It looks like my sweet little tax-free is passing the $40k mark right now, ie it's doubled in less than 4 years. The year 2012 has been spectacular in certain oil juniors & this trend is not over yet imho ...


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> It looks like my sweet little tax-free is passing the $40k mark right now, ie it's doubled in less than 4 years. The year 2012 has been spectacular in certain oil juniors & this trend is not over yet imho ...


Fantastic! :encouragement:

Edit: And NO matter what happens, you have 1,272 FREE shares [or close enough from your gross profit of $1,400 thus far]. Or 1,308 shares, if you take into account the fact that you have lowered your ACB on your 12,000 shares to $1.07 now [or thereabouts from the purchase price of $1.10 & $1.04].

And you thought you had 'lost your head' back in September. :rolleyes2:

Magnifique!


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Yeah I was happy to wake up this morning and see that my small position had already popped 8.5 percent. I'm impressed you've doubled your tfsa. I have been using mine for trading in a big way only since about may and have managed only about a 15% return annualized mainly on depressed banking stocks and nat gas.

HP where do you get your info on WZR? I get most of my news from Reuters and google fin but hadn't seen your coverage.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

sing a song of paranoia, a pocketful of pennies.

for a while it was thought that former talisman VP frederic lesage might target western zagros when he recently became president of TAQA north, the canadian arm of the abu dhabi energy authority.

it was thought that talisman, which is western zagros' drill partner in kurdistan, might downplay kurdamir well results in order to lower WZR's price for a buyout by TAQA.

but no. It appears to be shamaran - a lundin company also drilling in kurdistan - that TAQA is pursuing.

SNM deal is not done yet.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...2?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=43


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

when it comes to oil exploration, an investor could hardly find a more exciting news release than this one, put out this am by western zagros.

stk soared more than 16% today. I sold 10k of my 12k shares, i'm thinking to buy em back cheaper. This may be the dumbest mistake ever :barbershop_quartet_ :barbershop_quartet_

http://westernzagros.mwnewsroom.com...first-case-tsx-venture-wzr-201211190835423001


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> when it comes to oil exploration, an investor could hardly find a more exciting news release than this one, put out this am by western zagros.
> 
> stk soared more than 16% today. I sold 10k of my 12k shares, i'm thinking to buy em back cheaper. This may be the dumbest mistake ever :barbershop_quartet_ :barbershop_quartet_
> 
> http://westernzagros.mwnewsroom.com...first-case-tsx-venture-wzr-201211190835423001


I sold my 2000 shares on the same news and picked up some IPL.UN with the same money;0

I expect as the news fades in the next few weeks they'll dip again. When they do dip below 1.15 I'll be looking to take a small position of 2k shares.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> stk soared more than 16% today. I sold 10k of my 12k shares, i'm thinking to buy em back cheaper. This may be the *dumbest* mistake ever


Nicely done! :encouragement:

But be careful, as you're now thinking like a traditional trader [not option trader]. 

Surely it can't be a [superlative] mistake when you're booking profits.

At the current price, one can still get back in the game!

Congrats to you 2 *thompsg*, but didn't you buy IPL.UN at a high price?


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> be careful, as you're now thinking like a traditional trader [not option trader]


i had donned my traditional T hat, is all each:

i haven't even looked at news or quotes for WZR today but am planning to acquire my sh back on one of these down dips.

the underlying story is so wild, though. Makes africa oil look like a nursery rhyme.

thompsg do you know this website ? it's a useful source of up-to-date news in english on kurdistan.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurds/index.1.html


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Congrats to you 2 *thompsg*, but didn't you buy IPL.UN at a high price?


Thanks TGal.. With regards to IPL.UN-maybe a tad but I've been watching this one for months and its pretty solid. I don't see the price falling too much and the dividend is solid. If we hit another bumpy patch this is a safe play. In fact I'm in the process of moving a good portion of my portfolio into more conservative investments. There was a point where one could say every one of my investments was high risk. Now I can say about 45% of my portfolio is in conservative solid dividend paying companies such as such as IPL.UN, BCE, and FTS. This should help off set my riskier day trading and large SAN/TRQ position's. 

Humble Pie.. no I was not aware of that site but thanks!! I am now


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

*thompsg:* a very good move not only adjusting your risk tolerance, but also distinguishing volatility of each investment, and accordingly, balancing your risk capital!

What I do, is use a % of trading profits not only to trade further, but also, like you did, to add to existing long-term positions [that ideally have taken a beating]. 

Anyway, my point had been to ensure that you make the most of your trading profits! Another words, accumulate the good names on sale!

Having said the above, I do appreciate and realize the fact that your goal had been to add a less volatile, albeit solid stock going forward.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> Another words, accumulate the good names on sale!


TGal I have a list of stocks that i have been watching and I don't feel any are really on sale. I think deep in my heart I'm a value investor so most of the stocks I have been watching are not stocks you'd consider to be conservative, most are beat up banking and financial companies... The sort of investments I'm looking to get out of

One good name that I have been watching which may be slightly on sale is ABT Labs. Problem is that its in USD and my USD are all used up at the moment.

Do you have any good names on sale that you've been watching? I'm all ears and always happy to hear suggestions..


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thompsg4416 said:


> I sold my 2000 shares ... When they do dip below 1.15 I'll be looking to take a small position of 2k shares.


nearly down now to your target price, are you thinking to buy now thompsg ?

in wzr, i am not. Not yet. The plunge is too dramatic w insufficient explanation that i have been able to find as of now.

on the other hand i did commence re-buying AOI in tfsa though. 1k sh at 8.50 this am ...i


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

a yo-yo. Yesterday i bought 5000 sh @ 1.14 in tfsa to hold 7000. Today i sold 4000 @ 1.23 in tfsa to hold 3000.

a risky factor w kurdish yo-yos is that they sometimes fly off their strings


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

hey HP.. I've been on holiday so I sold all my short term positions. I noticed WZR has dropped back down close to my target but I don't have any free CDN money at the moment. Although I wouldn't mind holding this position long term if nessescary WZR is a stock I prefer to day trade... The trading band is pretty regular between 1.15 and 1.30. At least for the last while.

I'm looking to free up a bit of CDN money so I can get back into this one or one of my other day trades but for now I'm out


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

*Whats up??*

HP have you heard anything on this one lately? I have been checking Rudaw and no big news other then the kurds signing a oil deal with the central government. 

I'm still holding a small 2k position @ 1.12.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

as best i can make out, the drop in share price is related to these elements:

1. increased hostility from baghdad over kurdish oil deposits. As you know, southern iraq has always opposed the granting of oil exploration & exploitation licenses to foreign oilcos by the kurdish regional government.

recently baghdad has announced it will sue Genel, the british oilco that is already exporting oil from KRG through turkey. Here's just one story, but there are plenty more in the internet.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/iraq-to-sue-genel-energy-over-exports-8454832.html

2. some investors may have been disappointed that the recently-announced round of drilling - for which the 2 rigs were contracted - won't begin until next summer. There has always been an undercurrent of criticism that wzr management are too slow in getting things done.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

humble_pie said:


> as best i can make out, the drop in share price is related to these elements:
> 
> 1. increased hostility from baghdad over kurdish oil deposits. As you know, southern iraq has always opposed the granting of oil exploration & exploitation licenses to foreign oilcos by the kurdish regional government.
> 
> ...


Interesting HP, thanks again. I read they contracted the 2 rigs but I didn't clue in on the feeling that management moves too slowly.

I'm still long on my small position although I don't have enough confidence to add to it. For me the biggest problem with this one has been getting news and keeping up on develpments. In general your the only other person I know who follows teh stock. I suppose I should look around on some other forums.

until next time


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## AshleyT (May 1, 2009)

Some of the drop is certainly political. The KRG has turned the tap off again. They are now exporting some by truck to Turkey. Baghdad is squirming. However, this has been going on for years.

You're right about the timing of the drilling program in 2013. Earlier indications from the company suggested that Hasira and Baram were to be drilled in early 2013. Now they are looking at June and August. This after not doing anything on Garmian block in 2012 other than produce from Sarqala. For a stock that is always going to be owned by short term traders, this takes away their catalysts and screams "dead money" to them. So they take their capital elsewhere.

Fundamentally, nothing is different from the past few months to today. On Kurdamir, K2 sproule audit for the Oligocene is due any day. K3 to be spudded in a few weeks for more appraisal of the Oligocene, a major oil find which hasn't been adequatly rewarded in the share price due to a gas cap which choked off the flow rates. Still comercial at K2, but will be better at K3.

I'm still long and strong, and itching to buy more at sub$1.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/canadianreleasesdetail.aspx?n=8720748

That is some pretty positive news and the markets are reacting


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

thompsg4416 said:


> That is some pretty positive news


i sold half this am

i'll be back to buy
though not today each:


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

shorted them too @ 1.19 and picked up some HNU to sell a day or 2 from now. its a risky game but its only at 1.14 this morning. As long as I can unload my HNU at a small profit it should all work out


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

this news about the water is the first time they have encountered water at kurdamir i believe?

not good imho. I have not re-bought & probably will not do so for the time being. It is said that testing may yield further results for k3 in october.

extreme doomsayers over on stockhouse are asking how to arrive at intrinsic value for wzr as a going concern in a worst case scenario, eg if kurdamir is non-commercial then company may have to put itself up for sale to an oil major ... i did not get the impression the questioner was a pumpster/shorter with any kind of agenda & indeed the question is valid ...

what i've been doing is rotating among western zagros, shamaran & africa oil. I've been out of wzr for a while, this past week put more into aoi just below the $7 level. At least with aoi there are dozens of wells in 3 different countries. I've posted before how it's not necessary for aoi to drill a gusher, what they're doing is mapping the basin or basins, tying in with other explorations in uganda & south sudan, all with the goal of building a trans east africa pipeline that will run south from sudan to a new deepwater port on the kenya coast.


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