# 2011 predictions contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I have decided to run the 2011 predictions contest here.

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on Dec 31, 2011 in the following format:
DOW: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD except the TSX.

Deadline for entry is January 16th. Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before Jan 16th.


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## Assetologist (Apr 19, 2009)

*31 Dec 2011 Numbers*

DOW: 13150

TSX: 14200

Gold: 980

Oil: 85

CAD: 93


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

Dow: 14,000
tsx: 16,500
gold: $1400 
oil: $110 
cad: $1


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

DOW: 14,600
TSX: 15,900
Gold: $1,530
Oil: $106
CAD: $.92


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Keith, you didn't mention what kind of a car you will be giving away to the winner of next year's contest


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

DOW: 11,000
TSX: 12,000
Gold: $1,610
Oil: $78
CAD: $.97

I feel the first half of 2011 will make me look bad but will go my way in the last half.


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## osc (Oct 17, 2009)

DOW: 12900
TSX: 14200
Gold: $1,100
Oil: $90
CAD: $.90


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

DOW: 12000
TSX :14200
Gold: 1230
Oil: 95
CAD : 0.95


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Dow: 13000
tsx: 14500
gold: 1500
oil: 100
cad 95


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The prize is in the forecast itself. Predicting the future correctly is always lucrative. Just look at that TSX forecast for 2010!

As in the past, virtual plaques will be provided to the winners.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

DOW: 12,000
TSX: 14,000
GOLD: 1400
OIL: 110
CAD: 97

Bonus entry: Next 649 draw - 2875649765


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

I'm taking the bearish side:

DOW: 9,500
TSX: 10,500
Gold: 900
Oil: 50
CAD: $0.80

Reason: Hard landing in Emerging Markets.


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## warp (Sep 4, 2010)

Im not one to make predictions......but its fun to see what you guys think

I do take heart and notice that you pretty much all have the Canadian dollar DOWN versus the US dollar by next year.

That would be great for me as I hold US dollar assets, so I can only hope you are all correct on that prediction at least!


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

warp said:


> Im not one to make predictions......but its fun to see what you guys think
> 
> I do take heart and notice that you pretty much all have the Canadian dollar DOWN versus the US dollar by next year.
> 
> That would be great for me as I hold US dollar assets, so I can only hope you are all correct on that prediction at least!


I should clarify that this is all fun, at least for me. I'm not putting a penny on my "predictions".


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> I should clarify that this is all fun, at least for me. I'm not putting a penny on my "predictions".


One thing it teaches us (humbles us?) is the quality of our predictions in case we are tempted to try and time the market.


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## dustmaker (Apr 3, 2009)

DOW: 13,500
TSX: 14,500
Gold: 700
Oil: 110
CAD: $1.10

So the I am predicting that the gold bubble will burst (just a few days after I sell my portion). US dollar will remain weak but billions of dollars from the sidelines will finally make its way to the stock market.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Interesting that the general consensus so far is gold flat/down, Dow/Oil/TSX up. I hope you're all right as I do expect a flushing of weak retail hands before the big move up. I assume the winner of the contest is the closest guess to each of the five categories overall? Would like to see more of the rationale behind the guesses as well.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Would like to see more of the rationale behind the guesses as well.


I think you will find more active participation in January. We are waiting for the baseline to shake out.

As far as rationale is concerned, I think that is an individual decision. Otherwise we will generate debates about why you think Gold will be 1600 etc.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Have had interest expressed in a ye forecast for the 10 year government bond interest rate. Any takers?

The range will be narrow so that would make 3 decimal points necessary, e.g. 3.186.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN10YR:IND


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Predictions from a newbie!

DOW: 15,188
TSX: 16,300
GOLD: 1657
OIL: 84
CAD: 1.03


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## bigcake (Apr 3, 2009)

Dow: 12,500
tsx: 14,500
gold: 1650
oil: 110
cad: 1.02


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Dow: 12420
TSX: 14415
Gold: 1686
Oil: 90
CAD: 1

Can't believe there are still gold bears out there. One guy on CNBC even says that he shorts gold. On live TV! Tell me when governments will stop printing tons of money and I'll exit my GLD position. But I'll keep the coins.


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## MikeT (Feb 16, 2010)

Here's a prediction.

Inflation in China runs rampant. The government of china is between a rock and a hard place. Raising interest rates to slow inflation or maintaining their us dollar peg. Can't do both when the us dollar is going the other direction with QE. Something has to give and when it does George Soros is there to put the nail in their coffin. He makes a trillion dollars in one day and becomes king of the planet.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Argonaut said:


> Can't believe there are still gold bears out there...


I think that is what makes this prediction contest so much fun. No one knows! But you can prove the courage of your convictions.


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Dow: 12485
TSX: 14466
Gold: 1300
Oil: 102
CAD: .98

There has to be a gold/silver bubble soon. It is a worthless metal that costs a fortune to trade and store! I am with Buffett on this one.


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

Dow: 13000
tsx: 15000
gold: $1600
oil: $110
cad: $1.10


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## clovis8 (Dec 7, 2010)

Spidey said:


> Dow: 13000
> tsx: 15000
> gold: $1600
> oil: $110
> cad: $1.10


holy bullish! I sure hope you are correct!


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## olivaw (Nov 21, 2010)

Dow: 13,100
tsx: 14,900
gold: 1,278
oil: 112
cad: .96


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## bbsj (Aug 26, 2010)

Dow 12500
TSX 14400
Oil 101
Gold 1523
CAD 1.06 US


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Dow: 12225
Tsx: 14150
Gold: 1542
Oil: 96
Cad: 0.98


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

Dow: 13,800
tsx: 14,200
gold: 1588
oil: 101
cad: 0.99


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## Potato (Apr 3, 2009)

Dow: 12150
tsx: 12800
gold: 800
oil: 120
cad: 1.05


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Dow: 12290
tsx: 15200
gold: 1520
oil: 100
cad: 1.03


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Without any input about the proposed forecast for interest rates, we will rerun the 2010 contest choices. Here are mine for 2011:
DOW:	12,500
TSX:	14,500
GOLD:	1,650
OIL:	99
CAD:	1.000

The gold forecast is based on continued weakness of the USD, and the Canuck buck is based on our government taking steps to prevent its appreciation. Oil is anybody's guess but I do own XOM so I am counting on some further appreciation. The spread between the Dow and the TSX is also reflecting the strength of our currency. I expect to see some correction in the Dow but then contiued buoyancy. After all, how dillusional are those investors?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Just a reminder that the contest deadline for entries is Jan 16th at midnight PST. If you choose to adjust your entry, please edit your original post.

One more trading week before making your final guesses.


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## I'm Howard (Oct 13, 2010)

I won't play this game, because i do not believe in a Market, but I do believe in Markets, that there is No Investment for All Seasons, but a Season for all investments.

I am more interested in where people are putting their assets, here, overseas, gold, rare metals, corporate bonds, Florida Real Estate??


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

There's still time to enter before the Jan 16th deadline.
Here's the consensus from the forum 'experts' thus far for 2011:


```
Dec 31/2011      % Change
        ------------      ----------
Dow:      12,615           + 9.0 
TSX:      14,242           + 6.0 
Gold:      1,373           - 3.1
Oil:       98.14           + 7.3
CAD:      0.9891           - 1.1
```


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Answers in CAPS below:


I'm Howard said:


> I won't play this game, because i do not believe in a Market, but I do believe in Markets, that there is No Investment for All Seasons, but a Season for all investments.
> DON'T UNDERSTAND?
> 
> I am more interested in where people are putting their assets, here
> ...


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The role that forecasts play in prediction


> Here, we hope to offer something different: a blueprint for how to make practical use of these predictions, even when you suspect they are wrong. Taken together, forecasts can point toward the best and worst outcomes you can reasonably expect in a given year—and tell you how confident you should (or shouldn't) be.


3 more days.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

My personal predictions:

Dow: 12,615
TSX: 14,242
Gold: 1,373
Oil: 98.14
CAD: 0.9891

Said what?


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

haha. just an average guy, belguy.


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## bootsie (Aug 30, 2010)

Dow: 14,500
TSX: 15,400
Gold: 1400
Oil: 89.00
CAD: 0.98


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here is a summary of your 2011 predictions:










belguy is the early leader with an average error of 5.4%.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

kcowan said:


> Here is a summary of your 2011 predictions:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


seem that everyone is kind of bullish, except canadiancapitalist !


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Belguy takes the early lead and going around the first bend, it's Belguy by a head!!

Could it be that this guy is unbeatable??

It's hard to beat a committed indexer!!!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Gordon Pape and Snowback both beat belguy last year...I wonder if they were indexers?

Of course, most people like CC make their forecasts without regard to how they actually make their own investments.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

In any given year, there will be individual stock pickers and managed fund investors who will beat the index. They might even manage to do that over five years--although fewer will, and even over ten years--although fewer still will.

While it is possible to beat the indexes short term, the long term prospects become distinctly grim.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

I don't want to have any prediction as it will mean I am emotionally invested in a certain forecast. Staying un-emotional is hard enough as it is!

I like the thread though - I can look at my portfolio and see how I would handle all of these different outcomes.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

This contest isn't really based on who is an indexer and who isn't, and which strategy is better. Just a predictions game. Taking the Dow into account, I don't really care what Merck and American Express do, but they have just as much of an effect on the index as Boeing and Caterpillar. Personally, the only number that has a direct effect on my investments is gold.. which I seem to be the most bullish on.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Latest results are now upthread. belguy holds with 4.43% overall error, while peterk is hot on the trail with 4.49% error.


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## OhGreatGuru (May 24, 2009)

I predict that all predictions (except this one) will be no better than statistically random guesses.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The fun part is that they are not done that way. So each year, participants are a little bit smarter about making forecasts.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Dead last in 4 out of 5. Yikes!

On the bright side, we have 11 more months to go. So, there's hope yet!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

LOL, your predictions were certainly bearish, but who cares, the last one is the only one that will count, however, I sure hope you'll come dead last by then too.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

It won't look pretty but I do hope for a bearish outcome this year. Investors who are going to be accumulating assets should be wishing for lower asset prices. It's much harder to build wealth if assets are priced for modest returns.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I will be bargain shopping if CC is anywhere nearly correct. My guesses were based on the continuing irrationality of the markets.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

And mine are based on the fact that many companies are still sitting on trillions in cash + the many 'bearish' investors, who continue to be invested in cash/money market, etc. That money [should] make it into the market sooner rather than later [we saw this take place in 2009/10 already]. 

Also, we keep hearing about the insatiable appetite of the Chinese + other Emerging Markets, but there is no shortage of unpredictable internal/external factors that can make the market go either way; inflation, terrorism, natural disasters [remember Eyjafjallajökull?], war, etc. Who would have suspected for example, the current Middle East uprising at this moment in time? 

But I'm definitely always ready for a bargain and it is the investors that give the markets a boost.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The latest results are now upthread. Note that there are multiple ties for TSX, Gold and Cdn$.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> Dow: 12225
> Tsx: 14150
> Gold: 1542
> Oil: 96
> Cad: 0.98


If you fix my name and predictions, I'm nearly bang on in 3/5. That's probably a bad thing but at least let me have my shining moment 

12225/12226 = 0.0001
14150/14136 = 1.0009
1542/1409 = 1.094
96/96.86 = .99
.98/1.029 = 0.95


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

i am praying that everything crash 20% so i can buy more


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

larry81 said:


> i am praying that everything crash 20% so i can buy more


... I'm hoping for the exact opposite.

I've been really enjoying the last month of gains.

You just got your "financial crisis".
Let's start making some money.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> ... I'm hoping for the exact opposite.
> 
> I've been really enjoying the last month of gains.
> 
> ...


how many years are you away from retirement / withdrawal phase ?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

larry81 said:


> how many years are you away from retirement / withdrawal phase ?


I'd like to retire at 60 at the latest.

In which case, I have 40 years till retirement.

And in 40 years, I will have more chances to pick up on the downturns.

What I want is to create more wealth to purchase a home. 

Different priorities between you and I, that's all.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

KaeJS said:


> I'd like to retire at 60 at the latest.
> 
> In which case, I have 40 years till retirement.
> 
> ...


Yep i understand your situation, however i am personally not sure the stock market is the right place to put money you plan to use for a house purchase in the next 5 years !


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Everybody's circumstances are different and that's why specific investing advice is not very meaningful.

I used to participate in the old '50 Plus' forum where everyone was either retired or approaching retirement.

However, on this forum, you have investors of all ages and so much of the advice posted may not apply all that much to you.

Some of the younger investors will still have to learn life's lessons from the school of hard knocks but learn they will and often the hard way.

We older geezer's have already experienced most of life's lessons and can just sit back and watch and shake our heads.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Damn old geezers hoarding their knowledge *shakes fist*


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## Betzy (Feb 7, 2011)

Belguy said:


> Everybody's circumstances are different and that's why specific investing advice is not very meaningful.
> 
> I used to participate in the old '50 Plus' forum where everyone was either retired or approaching retirement.
> 
> ...


Common Belguy share some pitfalls and smart learned lessons, how are we suppose to make with out some keen insight from you?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

mode3sour said:


> If you fix my name and predictions, I'm nearly bang on in 3/5. That's probably a bad thing but at least let me have my shining moment
> 
> 12225/12226 = 0.0001
> 14150/14136 = 1.0009
> ...


My apologies mode. I have updated the standings, and, although you still trail belguy at 2.3%, you are now in second place with an overall error of just 3% and leading in DOW, TSX and OIL. As for the shining moment, I hope you enjoy it!

(You may have to empty your cache to see the new chart.)


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

Basking in the glory now  Although it says under the chart belguy leads at 5.4% so that's why I thought I was ahead..


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Latest results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

HaroldCrump is the current leader with 2.9% overall error at March 31, 2011.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Spidey has taken overall leadership at 3.7% error with bigcake in hot pursuit.

olivaw is the leader in oil since Gordon Pape is not a participant here.

I did a double take on our average Dow forecast!


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

I think I'm going to win the gold one in the end.. the upside is all mine "Price is Right" style. That's the only one that matters to me anyways!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

bbsj is the undisputed leader for May with 1.97% error.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

made3sour is the overall leader at 3.5% error with bbsj in hot pursuit.

argonaut leads in gold, with bigcake and kcowan close behind.

marina and avrex are tied for C$.

Thanks for the catch webber!


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

kcowan said:


> m*o*de3sour is the overall leader at 6.3% error with bbsj and Jungle in hot pursuit.


Woohoo! 6 months to go. D'oh!


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

The tsx and dow numbers should be switched around ?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Mode3sour holds his lead at 4.3% with kcowan close behind.

Potato leads in 3 categories this month.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

A new leader has emerged with bigcake having an average error of 6.2%


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Can you post the scoreboard please Keith? Thanks.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

For some unknown reason, I could not upload the graph to my website. Here is an attachment that satisfies the low site quota for uploads:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The current standings have been posted. 










Note the outstanding performance of dogcom for September! Overall and every category except CAD$.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

This doesn't look like the original list, kcowan.
Maybe by mistake you posted the FWR list.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> This doesn't look like the original list, kcowan.
> Maybe by mistake you posted the FWR list.


Sorry I did this from an internet cafe in Nice. Corrected now.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Argonaut is the leader for October.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

kcowan is the new leader for Novermber!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

The December winner will be the real champion.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

This ballot is rigged.
I want a recount


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

One month is like a lifetime in this market. I can pretty well count on being out in 30 days! However, I consider being this accurate after 11 months to be amazing luck.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The overall contest winner for 2011 is mode3sour with an overall error of just 4.8%. He is also in a 3-way tie with clovis8 and bootsie for predicting the C$. Congratulations to all participants. The awards ceremony will be announced shortly.

Overall runners up were
kcowan 6.1% and
bbsj 7.1%


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## RichmondMan (Jan 31, 2011)

Dow: 14,200
tsx: 15 000
gold: $1500
oil: $104
cad: $90


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

This contest is over, use the 2012 thread


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The 2011 CMF Awards hall of fame can be found here:

http://members.shaw.ca/keith.cowan/cmf-hall.htm


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

LOL, kc.

That's hilarious.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

I would like to know if any of the winners had predicted:

- The Arab Spring 
- Fukushima
- The US downgrade

No consolation prizes?!


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I plan to pay closer attention to kcowan's posts in 2012 .And let's be honest 2011 was a **** storm lol


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

No kidding Marina, so I think we have a case of accidental winners, what do you think?


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

A winner is a winner regardless how they got there


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Most contest participants are pretty philosophical about the role (roll?) that luck plays. But the forecasts (guesses) are pretty instructive about the makeup of our groups.

And please do not pay special attention to my posts. Several studies have shown that even industry pundits are no more accurate than we are. i.e. random.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> I would like to know if any of the winners had predicted:
> 
> - The Arab Spring
> - Fukushima
> ...


Last year I awarded a boobie prize but the recipient did not like it as much as I thought he would. Pictures of boobies do not scale well for an award.

The US housing crisis has been very predictable and the peak default year will be 2012. But I wish (for the sake of my uranium mining stocks) that Fukushima had not happened.

Join the contest and let us know how you think 2012 will shape up. You will learn about your biasses in 12 months. You have until Jan 15th.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Here are the final rankings for 2011:










Note where Gordon Pape ended up.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Thanks for putting this together, Keith 

I managed to squeak by at #10...not bad, all things considered.

Better luck next time, CC


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

My gold/oil predictions were not bad at all & neither were trading those stocks in 2011; that would explain my great returns of the year. 

Congrats. to Mr. Belguy on his 6th placing.  Yeah, wish better luck to CC as well. 

I'm skipping the 2012 contest, but shall return in 2013.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

kcowan said:


> The overall contest winner for 2011 is mode3sour with an overall error of just 4.8%. He is also in a 3-way tie with clovis8 and bootsie for predicting the C$. Congratulations to all participants. The awards ceremony will be announced shortly.
> 
> Overall runners up were
> kcowan 6.1% and
> bbsj 7.1%


What?? Seriously!? I completely missed this last week haha



Toronto.gal said:


> No kidding Marina, so I think we have a case of accidental winners, what do you think?


Give it up already T.Gal. This reinforces my belief that strong emotions do not make good predictions


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

What I find interesting is that for such a crazy "volatile and unpredictable year", I don't think my predictions were nearly as drastic as many or as the headlines turned out to be. Seems many people did expect/hope for some big moves


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