# The Bears are out boys



## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

Looks like we're heading into a bear market, seems like most stocks are running sideways or down. Just this past week I've got hammered by $ENF, $IPL, $DR, $QSR, $HR-UN
Looking for a few points bounce back and running with my gains.
Anyone els in sale mode and moving to short?


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

heh, nope, not me, just micro-adjusting here and there, for me a big shift in either direction would be equally welcome, gl


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

new 52 week low for DR. finger tapping lightly on the buy button. Will wait and see if the bears are out or if they are just sniffing around.

Cheers


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

^Just googled DR and I'm wondering why it's HQed in Toronto when it's facilities are located in South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas and California.
If it's only for preferential tax treatment, I'm thinking isn't the US starting to crack down on that stuff more and more lately?


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

I'd also like to see a little bit of a correction. REITs are just starting to get interesting now but would need another 10% decline to make them very interesting. Currently sitting on about 15% cash. I'd be quite happy to put 2/3rds of that to work if we get into correction territory.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

More guessing...

I used to be a guesser too, but no more.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

^Good plan. Ditto here.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Anything with a dividend is getting hit as yields adjust to maintain a differential over the risk free rate. Usually the market badly overshoots providing opportunities.


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

Jon_Snow said:


> More guessing...
> 
> I used to be a guesser too, but no more.


And you aren't guessing anymore because you are just reaping the income and aren't doing anymore buying or selling?


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## ChillbroSwaggins (Feb 18, 2015)

Jon_Snow said:


> More guessing...
> 
> I used to be a guesser too, but no more.


You still know nothing Jon Snow...


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## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

Just sold $DR, $IPL, $ENF. Keeping the principle in cash (for PayPal) and using some intrest to buy a few options. 
Don't be fooled by this quick bounce so far, markets taking a dip, just a question on how much it will drop. 

Ps. In this game unless you have inside info it's all an educated guess at best. Do your due diligence and protect your money, or just have faith in the market that in the long run you close in a bull market.


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## Sasquatch (Jan 28, 2012)

I let Mr. MAWER worry about what to buy/sell or whether to feed the bear or the bull.
I don't worry about it unless it is going to be a full blown crash where we all crash and burn. Then worrying will do no good anyway ;-)

Works for me


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

Wait, what? 

S&P500 is within a couple percentage points of all-time highs...

S&P TSX is maybe 5% off its peak but somewhere close to average of the last 12 months... still closer to the 52 week high than the 52 week low....

And you're already declaring a bear market? Either you're crazy or I need to get out from under my rock.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

RBull said:


> ^Good plan. Ditto here.


Bring on low prices. I will buy more stocks and more indexed ETFs.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

It's certainly not unusual for markets to be weak in summer. Rather than a reason to sell, I see it as a reason to buy.

Again the issue is the finance fixation with price quotes rather than thinking like a business owner. That's why Buffet is king and the average portfolio manager is selling something in the morning and buying it back in the afternoon and underperforming the index.


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## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

My question is if Greece defaults does that effect us Canadians?


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> Bring on low prices. I will buy more stocks and more indexed ETFs.


I can understand why you'd like that in the accumulation stage. 

I may load up the truck a little myself whenever prices make a significant enough drop that necessitates a re balancing of assets.


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## Vicjai (May 15, 2015)

If I were you I will buy more at a lower price instead of selling. I've learned in the past to not get shaken out by a bit of bear activity. :encouragement:


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

When I see this guy it's time to buy. How can he strike fear into any investor?


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

londoncalling said:


> When I see this guy it's time to buy. How can he strike fear into any investor?
> 
> View attachment 4793


When the investor is retired and in withdrawal mode, especially if the bear hangs around too long.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

RBull said:


> I can understand why you'd like that in the accumulation stage.
> 
> I may load up the truck a little myself whenever prices make a significant enough drop that necessitates a re balancing of assets.


Yes, for sure, accumulation stage.

I may feel different when I start winding down/spending the capital though! What drop do you look for, for a shuffle? 10%?


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## Tourist9394 (Jun 11, 2015)

Is there a bear with a low Canadian dollar? Money flooded in when CAD bottomed in Jan, not too far off from 52week low now.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

SPX has been sputtering since the first of the year. Up 50 points for the year, to 2100. Unch since Feb 17. Dow Transport Index usually taken for an early warning of market turns, peaked on Feb 24 at 917, now 831.

Sluggish lately, we will see if it takes off up or down. Or, it could play dead until september (as in "sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger's Day")


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaqs-new-high-could-be-the-bulls-last-gasp-2015-06-19

The market could go up, but based on the above fundamental analysis, the higher it goes the more detached it becomes from historical norms/reality.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

RBull said:


> I can understand why you'd like that in the accumulation stage.


Unless you are in retirement cashing dividend cheques...market dips won't have an effect on them either.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Cal said:


> Unless you are in retirement cashing dividend cheques...market dips won't have an effect on them either.


I am. And I know MOA isn't.


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## zylon (Oct 27, 2010)

*Sector Rotation - "there is always a bull market somewhere ..."*

June 15, 2015 ................................ *Going for Gold*










http://nulegacygold.com/i/pdf/BMO-says-Go-for-Gold.pdf

- 124 page pdf - I'm only to page 22, so far.
- summary notes along the left side are helpful.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Still waiting for these bears. :biggrin:


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

It was nice to buy a bunch of Canadian index at the bottom of the dip. Not really intentional but nice when it happens anyway.


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

Who says this is the bottom? Perhaps this is just a temporary uptick in a much larger correction. The thing nice thing about dips is that their durations can be determined by the investor in hindsight. Regardless it always feels nice to buy when things go down and then go up for a bit afterwards. Enjoy the volatility and good luck to all.

Cheers


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I totally agree. Lets call it a local minimum.


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## investment101CA (Jun 26, 2015)

*what bear ?*

I am no party pooper. I cannot predict future and I do not know when the market does well or not. Looking at the interest rate of central banks around the world, it is still at the record low. With some of the countries around the world, it has even lower interest rate than 2008. With the government supporting economic police, it is hard to see the business is going to do bad soon. The near zero percent interest rate would give the business a good boost on their revenue, even some unpredicted bad news come along the way. I know the Federal Bank of US is considering increased their interest rate but as they came to meeting in June. They are reluctant to move the interest rate up and keep it till the end of the year to consider the possibility to increase the interest rate. I personally do not see any big reason why the business would do terribly bad this year. It may move up and down but I do not too much to worry besides the paper loss.


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## investment101CA (Jun 26, 2015)

investment101CA said:


> I am no party pooper. I cannot predict future and I do not know when the market does well or not. Looking at the interest rate of central banks around the world, it is still at the record low. With some of the countries around the world, it has even lower interest rate than 2008. With the government supporting economic police, it is hard to see the business is going to do bad soon. The near zero percent interest rate would give the business a good boost on their revenue, even some unpredicted bad news come along the way. I know the Federal Bank of US is considering increased their interest rate but as they came to meeting in June. They are reluctant to move the interest rate up and keep it till the end of the year to consider the possibility to increase the interest rate. I personally do not see any big reason why the business would do terribly bad this year. It may move up and down but I do not too much to worry besides the paper loss.


www.understandinginvestment.com


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

investment101CA said:


> I am no party pooper. I cannot predict future and I do not know when the market does well or not. Looking at the interest rate of central banks around the world, it is still at the record low. With some of the countries around the world, it has even lower interest rate than 2008. With the government supporting economic police, it is hard to see the business is going to do bad soon. The near zero percent interest rate would give the business a good boost on their revenue, even some unpredicted bad news come along the way. I know the Federal Bank of US is considering increased their interest rate but as they came to meeting in June. They are reluctant to move the interest rate up and keep it till the end of the year to consider the possibility to increase the interest rate. I personally do not see any big reason why the business would do terribly bad this year. It may move up and down but I do not too much to worry besides the paper loss.


1. Low interest rates are eventually bad for stocks as it is believed to be inflationary and the Feds goal is to fight inflation. 
2. The stock market goes up in advance of business becoming good. and it goes down in advance of business becoming bad. The market does not wait for business to go bad, and then turn down, it goes down in advance of bad business. 
3. No worry is an approximate sign of a top. 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102789846


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

none said:


> I totally agree. Lets call it a local minimum.


Local minimum indeed  lol


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Pluto said:


> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaqs-new-high-could-be-the-bulls-last-gasp-2015-06-19
> 
> The market could go up, but based on the above fundamental analysis, the higher it goes the more detached it becomes from historical norms/reality.



agree with pluto & london. Things are too serious at present for anyone to say flippantly that any bottom is in.

who knows? possibly lonewolf, our zoroastrian poet who writes here in ancient sanskrit with a touch of the old testament thrown in, will have the last laugh after all . each:


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

The best thing is to just keep investing in good companies when they are cheaper. I know it hurts to see getting our portfolio hit hard by market fluctuation but this will pass. Think positively like " I will have 2-3K to invest this Friday and it would be great if I can buy stocks that are on 2-5% discount.


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## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

Might be holding on to more cash for now than buying the dips. 2-5% discount might be expensive looking back. Stay long on your blue chips and dump the weaker stocks. 
Greece + porto rico + China + rate hike = downward trend. Don't try to catch a falling knife.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Arizona said:


> Greece + porto rico + China + rate hike = downward trend. Don't try to catch a falling knife.


What are you trying to say?


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

Arizona said:


> Might be holding on to more cash for now than buying the dips. 2-5% discount might be expensive looking back. Stay long on your blue chips and dump the weaker stocks.
> Greece + porto rico + China + rate hike = downward trend. Don't try to catch a falling knife.


I strongly agree with you.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> Yes, for sure, accumulation stage.
> 
> I may feel different when I start winding down/spending the capital though! What drop do you look for, for a shuffle? 10%?


Sorry, I missed this before. 

5% change in an asset class, or annually if less would have me rebalance.


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## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

supperfly17 said:


> Arizona said:
> 
> 
> > Greece + porto rico + China + rate hike = downward trend. Don't try to catch a falling knife.
> ...



Just hold on to a bit more cash until this Greek fiasco passes. Don't buy the dips for now, let the market bottom for the deals. 
Just my opinion.


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## Arizona (May 31, 2015)

Anyone watch Mad money today? Recession talks have started, this issue with China could be a big problem. Remember what Lehman Brothers did back in 08.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Arizona said:


> Anyone watch Mad money today? Recession talks have started, this issue with China could be a big problem. Remember what Lehman Brothers did back in 08.


Without a decent amount of "fear" in the markets we will never get a good sized correction. I'm told that corrections are "healthy" for the market so a good dose of fear can't be all that bad. Everyone seems to say that the markets are over valued, in need of a decent sized correction, etc. and then when we start to get a little selling everyone starts to freak out.

Let me know when the market bottoms!


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