# Damp in the GTA



## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Nice of the weather service to totally fail in predicting the huge rainfall tonight. Everyone get home safe?

I was without power until about 10. #cerealfordinner


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

andrewf said:


> Nice of the weather service to totally fail in predicting the huge rainfall tonight. Everyone get home safe?
> 
> I was without power until about 10. #cerealfordinner


Weather prediction is quite difficult but has actually substantially improved over the last 25 years. There is a decent write-up in Nate Silver's 'signal and the noise' about the model fitting difficulties and forecasting of weather. Probability burns you every now and again.

Look at it as an opportunity to have a candle lit dinner of cheerios with your significant other.


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## mind_business (Sep 24, 2011)

That's a crazy amount of water. We're in Cambridge and luckily didn't get the deluge.


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## Nemo2 (Mar 1, 2012)

Every morning in Belleville lately the forecast says it's going to rain....... _tomorrow_....guess it'll be correct....someday.


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

andrewf said:


> Nice of the weather service to totally fail in predicting the huge rainfall tonight. Everyone get home safe?
> 
> I was without power until about 10. #cerealfordinner


Totally fail? I check the weather rigourously to plan my bike commute (or not). Forecast at 7 a.m. yesterday (when I make my daily commuting call!) was 100% chance of precip, with heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted in the later afternoon and continuing into the evening. I use google weather and check the radar maps from Environment Canada as backup (so if there's "light" rain, I can see where it's predicted to head). What weather service are you using?


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

South Misssauga here. Just a wee bit of drizzle for where we live for part of the night, but look north and you knew somewhere was getting whacked. 

I live really close to work, so no problem getting home.
We got leftover dinner out of the microwave and about two bites into the dinner on the plate when the lights went out.
Openned all the blinds, finished dinner. 
Wife read a book she is half way through by the light of the north windows in the house, son played on 2 ds's with aged batteries til they pooped out.
I got the battery powered radio out and tuned in news sources for a bit, and rounded up flash lights for potential use later.

I went outside to rehab an old Coleman naphtha stove on the picnic table.
I bought it last weekend at a garage sale as a part of my gear gathering and maintenance role for my kids Scouts troop.
I thought it might get a good shake down test after repairs if the power had not come back on by breakfast and things warming in the fridge would need to be cooked up.

Fired up an idled UPS to get the router and Eswitch going about 9:30pm , to check our electrity status online on the laptop, as the radio media was focused on Toronto.
Two Hydro One TS 's that feed our utuility flooded was the word. 
I used to design electrical distribution systems, so I knew the fix would not be a quick one.

Tried to fire up a now infrequently used small portable CRT TV and set top tuner on another spare UPS, and discovered the set top box is kaput. 
Read by flash light, and otherwise went to bed early.

Power back on by 12:30 when I got up to go to the bathroom.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

MoneyGal said:


> Totally fail? I check the weather rigourously to plan my bike commute (or not). Forecast at 7 a.m. yesterday (when I make my daily commuting call!) was 100% chance of precip, with heavy rain and thunderstorms predicted in the later afternoon and continuing into the evening. I use google weather and check the radar maps from Environment Canada as backup (so if there's "light" rain, I can see where it's predicted to head). What weather service are you using?


I check weathernetwork.ca. They did forecast rain/thunderstorm, but I did not get the severe thunderstorm warning on my phone until 30 minutes after the worst of it. There was essentially no warning of severe weather. This was a very severe rainfall event, and there wasn't even a Environment Canada heavy rainfall warning. The public did not know how bad things were until they were outside on flooded streets.


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## MoneyGal (Apr 24, 2009)

I'm sure you are right! "Thunderstorm" is enough to keep me off my bike, so I don't look for data about the severity beyond that.

As for "what the public knew" - I looked out the window at work from the 12th story; I could see it coming. :chuncky: (got home before the worst of it)


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

It looked bad to me, as well, when I was about the leave around 5:45, so I checked weathernetwork.ca. No watches, no warnings, so I gathered it must not have been too bad.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

I find the Environment Canada forecasts to be more accurate than anything else I've tried. Although I really like weatherspark.com (which requires Flash); it's very localized and detailed, and shows predicted temperatures, cloud cover, and precipitation probabilities for every hour of the day. You can customize the graphs and what's shown on them to your heart's content (even including moon phases, humidity, wind direction and speed, etc.). It's pretty cool.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

brad said:


> I find the Environment Canada forecasts to be more accurate than anything else I've tried. Although I really like weatherspark.com (which requires Flash); it's very localized and detailed, and shows predicted temperatures, cloud cover, and precipitation probabilities for every hour of the day. You can customize the graphs and what's shown on them to your heart's content (even including moon phases, humidity, wind direction and speed, etc.). It's pretty cool.


Canadian weather sites use model output from government sources Canada data but add their own 'spin' to them. In Nate Silver's 'signal and the noise' he points out how private companies such as the weather network simply repackage the government data and add a bit of spin and add a rain bias to the predictions. People are much happier when it doesn't rain when it's 'supposed to' compared to the opposite.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I have never understood why people blame weather reporters for bad weather. It's almost like people think they are modern-day shamans or wind speakers.

I blame them for being wrong, especially when giving false certainty.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Forecasts are just educated guesses. Never count on them.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

andrewf said:


> I have never understood why people blame weather reporters for bad weather. It's almost like people think they are modern-day shamans or wind speakers.
> 
> I blame them for being wrong, especially when giving false certainty.


Forecasts are probability distributions so it can be difficult to tell if they are 'wrong' without long term comparisons of predictions and outcomes.

you may find this interesting: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/magazine/the-weatherman-is-not-a-moron.html?pagewanted=all


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

It doesn't have to be rational!

For the most part I don't look at the weather. Only to get a sense about severe weather or if I'm planning outdoor activity. Day-to-day weather forecasts I don't care about.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

brad said:


> I find the Environment Canada forecasts to be more accurate than anything else I've tried. Although I really like weatherspark.com (which requires Flash); it's very localized and detailed, and shows predicted temperatures, cloud cover, and precipitation probabilities for every hour of the day. You can customize the graphs and what's shown on them to your heart's content (even including moon phases, humidity, wind direction and speed, etc.). It's pretty cool.


... thanks Brad. Another good source for local weather forecast - seems pretty accurate at first glance. 

Should have bought a dinghy as Carverman suggested last year instead of rainboots - would've been more useful for yesterday evening. What scary clouds and the unbelieveable hour downpour for Toronto. :grey:


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## Sherlock (Apr 18, 2010)

Rode my motorcycle to work as it was a nice sunny looking day in the morning. Had to ride home in the pouring rain. Some streetlights were out too so there was even higher than normal traffic congestion. It was fun.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

It was fun? :eek2: Btw, what do you call a motorcyle when it's submerged in water? Sub-mo-bike??? :biggrin:


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

my daughter was stuck in the transit mess ,took over 4 hours to get out and then had to face a 3.7 km walk got home at 11:30 .One good things is she met 2 of her neighbours and they shared the last 45 minute walk home in the dark together.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Beaver101 said:


> 1. Should have bought a dinghy as Carverman suggested last year instead of rainboots
> 2. It was fun? Btw, what do you call a motorcyle when it's submerged in water? Sub-mo-bike???


*1. *A rubber one like this you mean? Carverman always knew best. :encouragement: 









*2. *He might have bought a limited edition [circa 1932] of the multi-purpose [land/water] amphibian-bike from BBD.B for maximum 'flexibility & ruggedness'. 










Not funny for sure, but it was nothing compared to what happened in other parts of the country. 

Hope everyone is safe.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

marina628 said:


> my daughter was stuck in the transit mess ,took over 4 hours to get out and then had to face a 3.7 km walk got home at 11:30....


I was reminded of the 2003 blackout. I had been working late that hot afternoon [as I was going on holidays the following week], that is until the building ordered everyone out for security reasons; it was around 7 p.m., and got home after 1 a.m.
http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categori...al/the-great-2003-north-america-blackout.html


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

In 2003, we were only without power for a few hours, until they started the rolling blackouts. My more distinct memory of that day is hearing that a couple that were family friends died in a single engine plane crash that morning.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

We were [midtown Toronto] without power [including water] for 2 days!


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

The longest I have been without power is 2 weeks (11 days to be precise) during a Category 4 hurricane in the islands of the Bahamas in 1999.
It was hurricane Floyd in Sep 1999 and the devastation was severe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

Thankfully, I had a gas stove so I could survive by cooking canned beans and boiled rice.

The office where I worked closed for a full week, so life was good ;o)

I have been without power during several hurricanes, but this was the worst and the longest.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

I still can't get the image of submerged Ferrari out of my head ;-)


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

remember the summer 2003 thing very well ,lines up at gas station next morning was crazy .since then we always keep the cars full of gas and have lots of cash in small bills .


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

The power failure lessons of 2003 means for us that:
There is always about $400 in the house hold in denominations smaller than $20. Used to be used as a float at craft shows we sold at, now a good garage sale price bargaining resource tool. 
Always one of the vehicles with more that 3/4 in the tank, and 2 x 10L gas can to fuel the yard implements and do backup for the cars. 
As home canner, always a number of weeks of meals in jars in the cold cellar.
Always at least 4l of white gas and a few coleman stoves and lantern and pump water filter and iodine for camping, or for having to cook out of doors, or should central natural gas supply, or potable water supply fail.

Not quite a full blown prepper in the survivalist sense of the word, but alwasy like to keep a stock of non perishables fodod items on hand that we regualrly rotate though ias we do everyday meal planning.

Biggest piss off for my wife on Monday's power fail was not knowing how the Jeopardy game with the guy on the winning streak went.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

"Biggest piss off for my wife on Monday's power fail was not knowing how the Jeopardy game with the guy on the winning streak went."

LOL


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## NorthKC (Apr 1, 2013)

Ponderling said:


> Biggest piss off for my wife on Monday's power fail was not knowing how the Jeopardy game with the guy on the winning streak went.


:highly_amused:​


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