# Vancouver Island real estate trends



## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

Hi everyone. My family and I are moving from Vancouver to Nanaimo next year and I've been looking at some options of where to live. Obviously everything looks MUCH cheaper than Vancouver, which is great. 

I looked at the trend over the past 5 years and I see that Vancouver Island real estate, including Nanaimo, has basically done nothing in that time. It dipped a little in 2011-12, then bounced back. But basically its right where it was in 2010. In inflation-adjusted terms, it has actually lost value during that time.

Does anyone know why this is? Is it really just the foreign money that has driven Vancouver prices higher? I guess there is very little Chinese investment in Vancouver Island. 

I'm just surprised that this period of low interest rates seems to have done nothing at all for real estate on the island. Any thoughts?


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## spirit (May 9, 2009)

Hi. Not too sure if my comments are helpful to you.....but my husband and I have holidayed on Vancouver Island for the last 10 years. We always stay at a place near Nanaimo and every summer we dream about buying property there. On the ocean.(; And every year we toodle on back home to Edmonton where jobs and families await.
But I have looked at prices for what we would buy if we were buying and I think you are right...prices have pretty well been stable over the years.
However, I think there are some issues that you should be aware of.....around Comox there are many industries that have shut down. A friend whose has owed summer property there in that area has told me that taxes and utilities have really increased.....many people moved away and the remaining people are carrying a larger piece of the pie. I would look at those costs over the last few years to see if her story is right.
You are also beholden to ferry prices.....we pay that cost every summer.....and it is part of our holiday expenses...but if you need to go to the mainland for doctor visits etc....it can get pricey.
In the area we like....on Yellowpoint Road....the water situation is not good....lots of sulfur in the water.....our resort brings in water from Nanaimo now and we noticed it had a taste that we did not like....taste the water or forever buy it in bottles (;
Some of the best advice I was given and I would follow if we were going to buy....is to rent for a winter near where you want to live...you will get lots of information with no pressure to make decisions.....lots of rentals on the island(; Good luck


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Contrary to population opinion Victoria is a government town which means there isn't a ton of cash lying around. You need some base of funds to run up prices.

There is this site: http://househuntvictoria.ca/


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## Itchy54 (Feb 12, 2012)

Things on the island are about the same as most areas in bc.....slow over the past six years.
My brother and FIL just recently sold their homes in the comox valley (brother to Winnipeg and FIL into retirement home) and the sales were swift for both but prices were average. Actually my brother "gave" his gorgeous house away, sold in an hour.
If you want an idea of property values as compared to the previous year you can look up property taxes online (and it also shows any sale price of the home over the past three years if it was on the market). 
The website is below and all you need is an address. A super helpful tool.
http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca
Certainly not the returns you have seen in the Vancouver market.

Spirit mentioned the comox valley shutting down....I am not positive about that, we visit often and have not noticed changes. With the armed forces base located there I don't see the economy sagging in that area.

We hate the ferry...hate it!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The uncertainty of ferry prices has certainly depressed prices. Same as on the Gulf Islands and The Sunshine Coast. The Gulf is also suffering from the hangover of high prices driven by US buyers before 2008. Without the prospect of capital appreciation, I would lease a place. And sock your home equity into a well-managed REIT.

(Our cousin owns a rental property in downtown Victoria and it is costing her every month to keep it afloat. She bought it as new construction but delays prevented her from doing a quick flip.)


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

Itchy54 said:


> Spirit mentioned the comox valley shutting down....I am not positive about that, we visit often and have not noticed changes. With the armed forces base located there I don't see the economy sagging in that area.
> 
> We hate the ferry...hate it!


There are two direct WestJet flights a day to Edmonton and two to Calgary from Comox. As far as the ferries.... good food, read a book, people-watch... what's not to like?


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

my condo has been for flat for several years, right in sync with the crash
victoria real estate is driven by retirees from the east and alberta and they aren't doing well enough to want to move here yet i think
if oil hits 70 and the economy picks up we will see victoria re pick up again


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

Thanks everyone. Seems like most people think the real estate board numbers paint an accurate enough picture.

The problem with renting is that there's very little decent rental property in Nanaimo/Parksville area. One of the reasons we're moving is that we're fed up with being shunted around between rentals in Vancouver. So we'd really prefer to buy if possible. The fact that real estate hasn't seen the boom that YVR has is actually quite encouraging. If the housing market does fall to pieces, perhaps its a bit less bubbly to begin with.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

It's bubbly enough that I'm staying out of it for a few more years. Basically at this point I'm stashing cash and investing and if the money gods look down on me with some solid gains and a housing market correction within the next 5 years I'll jump in once the buy vs rent flips to the former.


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## nathan79 (Feb 21, 2011)

I'm beginning to think that waiting for real estate to drop is like staying out the stock market -- sure, you might get lucky and buy on a correction, but it's more likely you just miss the run up in prices and end up further behind when all is said and done.

If you're waiting for interest rates to rise and trigger a price drop, that could be in 5 years or 20... or maybe never.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I'd look at Island RE the same way as most of middle sized urban Canada. No particular reason to be there except personal* reasons. No particular economic drivers. Steady, generally keeping up with inflation (and perhaps GDP growth) longer term. Nothing more. Places like GVA and GTA are mega-cities with their own aberrations.

* I'd never re-locate to the Island. Key downsides: NDP mentality, Ferries, Rain, The Big One... May well be the reason for many who wouldn't go there, just like people who wouldn't buy a house with a pool.


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

AltaRed said:


> I'd look at Island RE the same way as most of middle sized urban Canada. No particular reason to be there except personal* reasons. No particular economic drivers. Steady, generally keeping up with inflation (and perhaps GDP growth) longer term. Nothing more. Places like GVA and GTA are mega-cities with their own aberrations.
> 
> * I'd never re-locate to the Island. Key downsides: NDP mentality, Ferries, Rain, The Big One... May well be the reason for many who wouldn't go there, just like people who wouldn't buy a house with a pool.


We work from home and we're ready to leave the city. Moving to the island seems to offer a lot of outdoor stuff for our kids, good access to skiing, and we'd be just a short flight from YVR. The rain doesn't bother us because Vancouver has more anyway!


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

nathan79 said:


> I'm beginning to think that waiting for real estate to drop is like staying out the stock market -- sure, you might get lucky and buy on a correction, but it's more likely you just miss the run up in prices and end up further behind when all is said and done.
> 
> If you're waiting for interest rates to rise and trigger a price drop, that could be in 5 years or 20... or maybe never.


It all depends on your own finances. If you can stomach a potential 20% drop no problem, it's ok to buy. If you can't, wait.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

vi123 said:


> We work from home and we're ready to leave the city. Moving to the island seems to offer a lot of outdoor stuff for our kids, good access to skiing, and we'd be just a short flight from YVR. The rain doesn't bother us because Vancouver has more anyway!


I understand. Everyone has their 'good' reasons for being on the Island. I was just pointing out reasons why the Island may not be seeing GVA type price increases/demand. That can be a good thing.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

vi123 said:


> We work from home and we're ready to leave the city. Moving to the island seems to offer a lot of outdoor stuff for our kids, good access to skiing, and we'd be just a short flight from YVR. The rain doesn't bother us because Vancouver has more anyway!


Good access to skiing? What are you talking about?


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

Granted Mt. Washington or Forbidden Plateau aren't Whistler or Big White, but it is still skiing.


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

none said:


> vi123 said:
> 
> 
> > We work from home and we're ready to leave the city. Moving to the island seems to offer a lot of outdoor stuff for our kids, good access to skiing, and we'd be just a short flight from YVR. The rain doesn't bother us because Vancouver has more anyway!
> ...


Mt Washington, just over an hour from North Nanaimo.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I know where it is but they haven't gotten snow in two years. Who knows how long it'll be around for.


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

none said:


> I know where it is but they haven't gotten snow in two years. Who knows how long it'll be around for.


True, but we can always go to whistler in the years when mt Washington is bad


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

vi123 said:


> True, but we can always go to whistler in the years when mt Washington is bad


You can but Whistler is reasonably 6 hours away plus $150 in Ferry's.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

none said:


> You can but Whistler is reasonably 6 hours away plus $150 in Ferry's.


...from what I have heard, Whistler will not be getting alot of snow this year. It'll be similar to last year. Save your $ - go X-country skiing.


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## vi123 (Oct 29, 2015)

dubmac said:


> ...from what I have heard, Whistler will not be getting alot of snow this year. It'll be similar to last year. Save your $ - go X-country skiing.


I think everywhere on the west coast is going to have a bad skiing year due to El Niño. If Mt Washington gets no snow then the Vancouver north shore mountains won't either. So for us, there's not a lot of difference between Vancouver or Nanaimo.


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