# 45.00 oil soon



## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

There is a lot of oil out there

We will soon see production drop,price up,more production,price drop,great for countries and large consumers


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

1980z28 said:


> There is a lot of oil out there
> 
> We will soon see production drop,price up,more production,price drop,great for countries and large consumers


Not great for this country. Low oil is only a stimulus for importing countries.


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## Robillard (Apr 11, 2009)

Well, it is not great for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, but it should be generally good for Ontario, Quebec, and any other province that is a net importer of oil. I think Ontario mostly imports from the US. I'm not sure about this, but I think Quebec imports on the global oil markets. 

Given how much oilsands heavy oil is being discounted compared to the benchmark price, there might be incentive to actually ship it across the country and undertake more refining in Canada. Or maybe not. I think the US has lots of cheap refining capacity. Part of the problem is that the US is not allowed to export crude, while it seems that they can export as much refined fluids as they like.


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

Yes. I was told that 6-9 months ago the Calgary oil folks made plans based on a $60. oil price and a .75 dollar. Now they are re planning for $50 oil and .70 dollar (which helps). 

This means more layoffs-certainly by Sept. 30. Cenovus recently announced 300-400 in Calgay. It also means lower capital expenditures and a cutback in orders of manufactured products from eastern Canada.

Anyone who thinks the oil price only impacts western Canada does not understand the amount of manufacturing in eastern Canada that is purchased for the oil patch.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> Anyone who thinks the oil price only impacts western Canada does not understand the amount of manufacturing in eastern Canada that is purchased for the oil patch.


 True! Everything is linked..... It's like body when one of the organs is not functioning properly


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## Robillard (Apr 11, 2009)

The Worthwhile Canadian Initiative blog had a good posting on how much the Federal government redistributed from Alberta to other provinces. 
http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2015/07/transfers-1.html

At the height of the oil boom, via tax and transfers, Ottawa took $6,000 per Albertan, while people in the Atlantic provinces on net received $5,000 per person. Other provinces received less. But the point is that anything that makes the Alberta tax cow poorer will likely also make other provinces worse off because they will get smaller net federal transfers.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Alberta has 4 million residents, and Ontario has 13 million residents.

Ontario sends far more tax dollars to Ottawa than it receives back in transfer payments.

The author of the blog confuses complicated calculations for equalization payments with general tax revenues.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Oil fell below $45 to 44.66 USD on today's trading.


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

On Wednesday the price of regular gas where I fill up in Calgary went from 99.9 to 111.9

Go figure.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

sags said:


> Ontario sends far more tax dollars to Ottawa than it receives back in transfer payments


That is how equalization works.
It is the tax rate spread that matters.

If Ontario keeps raising personal and consumption taxes, they will be forced to send more money to Ottawa for re-distribution.

Ontario can choose to split from the federation, pay back their share of the national debt, and float their own currency.
They could call it *Ontariuro*.


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## fraser (May 15, 2010)

I would be in favour of this IF and only IF Stephen Harper and his team went with the Ontario group.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

is 40 in the near future


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

1980z28 said:


> is 40 in the near future


I doubt that the consumers will get a break even if the Arabs can pump it out of their wells for around $10-25 a barrel. 
They are not going to stop production even if it falls below $40 a barrel.

However, the countries that are going to suffer most economically are those where it costs more than $40 a barrel to produce it.
US, Alberta, Saskatchewan Bakken oil fields around $46 to $47 a barrel. 
If the world price stays below their production price, the economies of these provinces will suffer further with downsizing and layoffs.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

^^^^

Agree


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Russia is in a load of trouble. Their public sector runs on foreign oil money. Ruble devaluation has helped but $40 oil will bankrupt Russia without big changes in public spending (and the risk of public backlash against the Putin regime).

Same goes for Venezuela...


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Same goes for Saudi Arabia, too.
...except that US foreign aid, foreign policy via the UN SC, currency exchange arrangements, and arms trade protects them, but not Russia/Venezuela.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

I did not think that I would see 40 dollar oil

So it goes


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Wow, close to $40.

More dividend cuts or eliminations for O&G companies on the way....although SU just raised theirs late-July. Rather bullish I thought!


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

I dont own any oil at this time,sold a while ago,only what some index holdings that I have

May buy a few thousands shares of ????


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

1980z28 said:


> May buy a few thousands shares of ????


XEG - play it safe


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

Synergy said:


> XEG - play it safe


I do not own any etf`s

Kind of buy the equities to build my own


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

XEG holdings:

SU	867224107	SUNCOR ENERGY INC.	26.05%	
CNQ	136385101	CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED	16.27%
CVE	15135U109	CENOVUS ENERGY INC	7.20%
IMO	453038408	IMPERIAL OIL LTD.	6.00%
ECA	292505104	ENCANA	3.75%
CPG	22576C101	CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP	3.54%
HUSKY ENERGY INC.	3.48%

So, as SU, CNQ and some other smaller players go, so goes XEG along with your 0.60% MER.

These are interesting times for our energy industry and we haven't even seen the (negative) spin-off effects of this yet...


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

My Own Advisor said:


> XEG holdings:
> 
> SU	867224107	SUNCOR ENERGY INC.	26.05%
> CNQ	136385101	CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED	16.27%
> ...


Sitting on XXk cash for trading ,can spend 66%,will place some orders and wait


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## Afp (Mar 19, 2013)

1980z28 said:


> Sitting on XXk cash for trading ,can spend 66%,will place some orders and wait


If it was me, I would have stayed with my original FTS xxx,xxx holding. I couldn't think of a logical reason for you to sell a multi decades winner in FTS and now to start going the day trading route. When you sell a big winner like that, I am sure the capital gain tax bill must be huge. It's even bigger since you're still working. I would have waited until retirement to minimize the tax impact.

I am not saying this way is right or that way is wrong. Just wondering why, it would be great if you can share your reasons so that we can all learn from.

Thanks and wish you luck trading.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

1980z28 said:


> I do not own any etf`s
> 
> Kind of buy the equities to build my own


This is my only ETF. Everything in individual equities. When the smoke clear I will get back into some individual names. For now I find it a little safer to play the potential bottoming of oil with XEG. Picked up some today.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Understood Synergy. We all have our paths, I thought you were a fan of individual equities


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

My Own Advisor said:


> Understood Synergy. We all have our paths, I thought you were a fan of individual equities


Sorry for the confusion! My portfolio is made up of "all" individual stocks, except for XEG / my current energy allocation. I sold all of my energy names (CPG, BTE, COS, etc.) back in 2014 and have slowly been picking away at XEG.

I have a real hard time indexing a part of my portfolio (lack of control) but my ultimate goal is to eventually index a good portion of my portfolio within my RRSP and keep mostly dividend paying stocks in my TFSA and Non-Reg accounts. Only time will tell :biggrin:


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

My guess is you can pretty much write oil off until December. Everyone is still pumping more oil despite the massive oversupply.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Nothing wrong with that doctrine. Good lead time to save for 2016 TFSA. It's crazy where things are, I'm very interested to see where things go.

@Synergy. That's what I thought, you held/hold many individual stocks like I do.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

Synergy said:


> My portfolio is made up of "all" individual stocks, except for XEG / my current energy allocation. I sold all of my energy names (CPG, BTE, COS, etc.) back in 2014 and have slowly been picking away at XEG.




imho this has turned out to be a perfect strategy.

synergy has escaped the individual meltdown horrors. The stark danger now is the number of bankruptcies we'll see in the oil & oil services patch.

companes are still drilling & producing in spite of the oil glut because sales at any price level are the only way to pay on their debt. But we're told they're losing with every barrel sold & this emergency strategy is not viable for more than a few months, year at the most.

by "picking away" at XEG i take it synergy means buying relatively small amounts on dips. This is an oil sector ETF so he's sidestepping all individual bankruptcy risk. Smart!

me i'm making my way across the barrens with copious option trading & heavy hedging, it's too late to undo all these now. In CPG for example i'll be out at $26 no matter what, although there is clearly a possibility that they will need to eliminate the dividend altogether.

i don't believe i have any BK candidates but nobody knows for sure. Options are not a bad strategy for enduring the barren times, imho they make more sense than trying to tell oneself that oilcos are going to "roar back" anytime soon.

but for anyone who's 100% out of the oil patch right now, synergy's strategy makes the very best sense, by far.


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

humble_pie said:


> imho this has turned out to be a perfect strategy..


A lot of luck! Who would have thought we'd be approaching $30 oil.



humble_pie said:


> by "picking away" at XEG i take it synergy means buying relatively small amounts on dips


Yes, that's the continued plan. There's no way I would we able to time a rebound in oil, so I just pick away on dips. I still have a very small allocation to energy and lots available cash so I'm content to be patient.

Interesting times indeed.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Traders continue to make a mockery of oil. Yes, bankrupting the entire industry will eventually bring production down.


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## JordoR (Aug 20, 2013)

I would love to just get into XEG instead of invidiual companies, but I'm too far invested in a few and I feel the safe thing to do is average down instead. 

A killing could've been made if I had the glass ball to sell late 2014/early 2015 and re-invest now. Oh well it will come back.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Lots of available cash would be key....that's not me right now....continue to save up for 2016 TFSA contribution. Would love to have $10k to invest early, then save more throughout the year.... 

I remain patient since I suspect this ride will continue for many months, at least 4 more I hope


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

My Own Advisor said:


> Lots of available cash would be key....that's not me right now....continue to save up for 2016 TFSA contribution. Would love to have $10k to invest early, then save more throughout the year....
> 
> I remain patient since I suspect this ride will continue for many months, at least 4 more I hope


I have been doing the same for next year's TFSA and RRSP but I pulled the trigger two days ago  I will start all over again!


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## Tawcan (Aug 3, 2012)

My Own Advisor said:


> Lots of available cash would be key....that's not me right now....continue to save up for 2016 TFSA contribution. Would love to have $10k to invest early, then save more throughout the year....
> 
> I remain patient since I suspect this ride will continue for many months, at least 4 more I hope


Trying to do the same as well. Have money to deploy but I think the market will continue going down for the next while...


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

My next prediction is for $32 oil sooner rather than later. Stay tuned. The world is a wild and crazy place!!


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