# Gold



## the-royal-mail

Wow this metal is on fire. In the five minutes since I loaded the goldprice.org website, the value has increased $2US, going from $1369US/oz to $1371. That's crazy. There are some funds out there that track the performance of the mining companies and they have provided beautiful returns for investors.

So, should I invest and stay a while, or should I invest and then run for cover back in my money/cash bags when the fund starts to drop significantly (2008 type drop)? Interest rates aren't headed up soon and the economy isn't improving. People and gov't invest in gold during times of uncertainty etc. What are your opinions as to how high this commodity can go?

Now at 1370.67.


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## Four Pillars

the-royal-mail said:


> Wow this metal is on fire. In the five minutes since I loaded the goldprice.org website, the value has increased $2US, going from $1369US/oz to $1371. That's crazy. There are some funds out there that track the performance of the mining companies and they have provided beautiful returns for investors.
> 
> So, should I invest and stay a while, or should I invest and then run for cover back in my money/cash bags when the fund starts to drop significantly (2008 type drop)? Interest rates aren't headed up soon and the economy isn't improving. People and gov't invest in gold during times of uncertainty etc. What are your opinions as to how high this commodity can go?
> 
> Now at 1370.67.


You want to invest now and then sell after a 2008 style drop? Doesn't sound very good to me.


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## andrewf

I'm currently up ~15%. No one knows where gold will go. You can choose to follow the trend or wait on the sidelines. My sell point is about 13% down from here, mainly because gold has really been on a tear lately.

You can wait and gamble that the price pulls back. It's up to you. I'm getting close to needing the trim my position to maintain allocation.


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## Jungle

Personally, gold doesn't do anything for me and I feel that gold is very expensive right now. And I can see it getting more expensive. To hold, store and buy physical gold is a pain. The gold ETFs are more convenient, but charge an MER. 

My father in law went to sell his gold at Scotiabank downtown and there was a huge line of people trying to buy it. THey were running out and only had the coins available. 

As an investor, gold is an alternative because:

Bond yields are low
Interest rates are low
Currency risks


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## HaroldCrump

Gold is appearing expensive because the currency it is measured in (USD) is weak, and growing weaker by the minute.
Gold will continue to "appreciate" as long as USD keeps getting weaker.
Ditto for most other commodities like crude oil, etc.
Until the world as a whole comes to realize that the US is essentially bankrupt and their currency is not worth the paper it's printed on, and we can arrive at an alternative basis for measurement.
Or, by some magic, the US and the world economy recovers from this mess and the USD stabilizes at some level.


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## CanadianCapitalist

I wonder if Canadian investors need separate exposure to gold. For one thing, USD weakness typically translates into CAD strength, so any gold price appreciation converted into CAD won't be as much. Also, we have a very healthy exposure to gold stocks (whether through index funds or direct stock holdings). So, I wonder if gold does make much sense for Canadian investors.


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## Mike59

I've been riding 20% allocation to the metal all year, and am up about 20% since then. 

World governments continue to devalue their currencies, and one has to question where the balance point really is. I (and Peter Schiff) feel it's alot higher than this. I often refer to the Dow/Gold ratio as a disturbing reminder that history is bound to repeat itself. 

My strategy is mechanical timing of asset allocation (a la Faber), and once GDX crosses below it's 200 day SMA sell point, I'm going to cash with all of it. I check the prices gold almost every hour during the work day though, given my paranoia about how quickly things can change, despite Peter Schiff being right "most of the time", I don't want to be stuck holding a bag of worthless gold if it's back down to $950/oz next month . 

For now though, it's all in, and I'm planning to buy my first silver bullion ETF this week


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## Addy

Does anyone know a good site that targets metals more so than stocks in general? I'm not going to invest, but I am curious to follow some just for fun.


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## fatcat

1) gold is a hedge against a falling us dollar and as long as the dollar which is the worlds reserve currency is looking shaky then that anxiety will translate into a demand for gold
2) gold bugs will say that it's a can't lose investment in the following way, more inflation = good for gold ...... deflation = fed intervention which will lead to eventual inflation = good for gold
3) adjusted for inflation (depending on who you believe) it is worth over $2000 an ounce
4) if all the currencies of the world were backed by gold it would have a value of over $50K per ounce
5) gold production has been steadily falling year over year
6) new mines are being dug at higher and higher altitudes and the cost of extraction is going up
7) india buys a lot of gold and as it becomes wealthier presumably will want more
8) china will also want to have gold both for jewelery and as an investment
9) there is a lot of skepticism about the real value of the usa gold reserves
10) central banks are no longer selling gold

blah blah blah

i still think it can drop 20% overnight but at the moment i think there is so much anxiety and change in the world financial markets that gold is just a "worry" investment

it certainly doesn't make you anything ....

(i wish i hadn't bought maple leafs because they are tough to sell)

i think the claymore gold bullion fund is a good place to go, holds bullion for an mer of .5%



> I wonder if Canadian investors need separate exposure to gold. For one thing, USD weakness typically translates into CAD strength, so any gold price appreciation converted into CAD won't be as much. Also, we have a very healthy exposure to gold stocks (whether through index funds or direct stock holdings). So, I wonder if gold does make much sense for Canadian investors.


 great point xiu has 12% in gold companies


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## Mike59

Can someone please comment on the Central Fund of Canada (CEF.A) as an investment, and how does compare to a fund such as GLD...Obviously they include silver in the mix too, which I see as a good thing (I'm thinking of the ishares Silver bullion ETF as another option). 

The CEF website claims that there are no fees, but searching other forums people say there is an annual MER of 2-3% to remain invested. Can someone please clarify?


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## fatcat

looks like you pay a premium of about 7% over net asset value to invest whereas with bordergold, they charge about a 5% premium over spot to buy gold maple leafs

if it's long term put em in a safe deposit box and forget about them i would buy from bordergold.com but for bullion that you want to trade you are better off with claymore's bullion funds which only charges .5% mer and has it's gold in scotia and it is unemcumbered


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## the-royal-mail

Thanks fat, I definitely intend to check out the claymore bullion funds. If I end up completing my questrade registration I may use 20% of next year's TFSA to play around with. Glad also that you liked the RBC fund we discussed in the other thread.


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## slacker

*Even if it works ...*

Charlie Munger has this to say on gold:

"I don't have the slightest interest in gold. I like understanding what works and what doesn't in human systems. To me that's not optional; that's a moral obligation. If you're capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. And I don't see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works, you're a jerk."


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## Taxsaver

A few days, I learned I could invest any part of my RRSP and RPP portfolio in precious metals. I made a move: 25% on these investments are now in precious metals.


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## el oro

CC: Gold is up 3-4x in $CDN in the past decade or so. Appreciation not quite as high when compared to USD but definitely still makes sense for Cdn investors.

Addy:
http://www.infomine.com/commodities/ Longer-term charts
kitco.com Precious metals
kitcometals.com Base metals

fatcat:
A lot of your reasons to own gold can be said about other commodities. The difference is gold can go up 5000% from here and not affect the economy. Lack of industrial purpose is no con.

You're a bit late to the game if you're just getting in now but you'll still make plenty of dough. Note that the juniors massively outperform the seniors and gold itself later in the cycle. The ones I follow are just starting to move.

Imo, natural gas is the way to go now. The only unloved commodity left.


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## Taxsaver

When the gold was at $860 I knew the gold price was about to explode. Alex Jones' website (Infowars) with all his links were helpful. The problem is that I neither had the money.


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## the-royal-mail

1377.67, less than 24 hours and it's up $7 an ounce. My fund is up $1.30 in one day. Very exciting.


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## fatcat

> A lot of your reasons to own gold can be said about other commodities. The difference is gold can go up 5000% from here and not affect the economy. Lack of industrial purpose is no con.
> 
> You're a bit late to the game if you're just getting in now but you'll still make plenty of dough. Note that the juniors massively outperform the seniors and gold itself later in the cycle. The ones I follow are just starting to move.


 i agree that it can absolutely go much, much higher, it can also correct downward dramatically in about a day so you need to watch your gold investments pretty carefully, i bought coins as a long term own and forget in case of some really bad monetary crisis but i regret that and will probably sell them as they are not as liquid and the spread to buy and sell is too large ...... for those of us that only buy etfs, what do you think of these bmo gold juniors etf *zjg* ?

Semafo Inc. 9.40%
Centerra Gold Inc 9.40%
Detour Gold Corporation 7.61%
Allied Nevada Gold Corp 7.16%
Alamos Gold Inc 6.47%
Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp 5.89%
European Goldfields Ltd 5.67%
Golden Star Resources Ltd 4.35%
Seabridge Gold Inc 4.08%
Aurizon Mines Ltd. 3.68%
NovaGold Resources Inc. 3.68%
Gammon Gold, Inc. 3.29%
Fronteer Gold Inc. 3.02%
Great Basin Gold Ltd. 2.98%
Northgate Minerals Corp. 2.87%
Lake Shore Gold Corp 2.68%
Ventana Gold Corp 2.63%
Guyana Goldfields Inc. 2.41%
Intl Minerals Corp 2.29%
Tanzanian Royalty Explrtn 2.24%
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. 2.03%
Dundee Prec Metals Inc. 1.96%
China Gold Intl Res Corp 1.66%
US Gold Corp 1.56%
Queenston Mining Inc.


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## Taxsaver

In my case my RRP and RRSP plan investments in not only in gold, but others like silver. I keep track of the daily progress of my portfolio thanks to a website.


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## Jungle

the-royal-mail said:


> 1377.67, less than 24 hours and it's up $7 an ounce. My fund is up $1.30 in one day. Very exciting.


So you bought?


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## the-royal-mail

Yeah I moved around some of my existing RRSP money. I've really taken control of that tier 3 fund and am much more active with it now. I want to enjoy the kind of growth I've heard and read about from others.

Those funds they sold me many years ago sucked. Now that the fine folks of CMF have given me some tips and a little knowledge, I have a much better understanding of investing concepts. Gold is doing very well, but like all of my investments, I am keeping close watch.


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## Jungle

Nice, I hope it goes up for you. I'm sure it will after Bernake tells everyone the he's going to print money and buy bonds. The greenback should be good for toilet paper. Heck, maybe I'll buy a couple of gold oZ's myself..


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## the-royal-mail

Thanks jungle for the moral support. It's fun to watch on a daily/real-time basis as the value of my RRSP goes up. $300 in the last week alone. I know there will be periods where it goes down, but take a look at the 1, 5, 10 and even 20 year performance of the RBC Precious Metals fund. I'll pay 2.04% MER for that kind of performance, he-l ya!

1377.32


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## the-royal-mail

Better times ahead for gold?

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/10/15/bernanke-quantitative-easing.html


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## humble_pie

cat i'm curious why you always promoting the bmo etfs.


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## Belguy

When looking at some wonderful and positive returns of specific funds, consider how those returns would be affected if, for any reason(s), the short term returns of those funds suddenly went south.

For example, while it is hard to see this happening in the foreseeable future, if precious metals suddenly went in the dumpster and dropped significantly in value, it wouldn't take long for the longer term results to start to look a little less enticing.

This is not to put a damper on investing in any specific fund in any specific sector, but I have learned from experience that a fund can have a very positive overall performance appearance at one point in time, and quite a different performance picture just a few short months later.

There is a danger in chasing after performance which is just another form of market timing which has been shown to be a losing investment strategy over the long term.

Better to concentrate on your asset allocation and select the lowest fee, broad-based index products for your core holdings. 

That said, a 5 percent holding in precious metals and another 5 to 10 percent in emerging markets etf's is still quite acceptable even for conservative investors. Just don't overdo it. 

It's your money so handle it carefully.


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## fatcat

> cat i'm curious why you always promoting the bmo etfs.


 pie, i think they have some really good low cost products

they are getting good acceptance with their products but mainly it's that they have several etf's that are unique and have, so far shown good results, specifically their junior gold etf which is good way to get gold exposure, they have an interesting base metals fund which i posted about in another thread and they also have an interesting high yield emerging market bond fund ....

they recently hit a billion in assets in under 15 months ...they have a product called zcn which is very close in structure to xiu and is lower cost and performed better over the last year ... 

i don't own any of their etf's but am very interested in their junior oil and junior golds and their base metals and emerging bond funds as well as their zcn but because of the wide market acceptance would still probably pay the extra .02 to own xiu... 

over the last year their zmt has outperformed cmw and is only a little over a year old versus the cmw being 2.5 years old and all ready the zmt is doing much greater daily volume

anyway, i just think they have great products


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## osc

Looks like a bubble to me. I'll short it at $1500 with a target of 50% gain in 1 year.


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## Belguy

If there is a sudden reversal of fortunes, junior stocks will get hammered the most!!


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## humble_pie

cat how do you find that zcn "performed better over the last year" than xiu.

the way i see it performance was identical.

ZCN 16 october 2009 16.35
ZCN 15 october 2010 17.34

XIU 16 october 2009 17.20
XIU 15 october 2010 18.26


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## fatcat

> cat how do you find that zcn "performed better over the last year" than xiu.
> 
> the way i see it performance was identical.
> 
> ZCN 16 october 2009 16.35
> ZCN 15 october 2010 17.34
> 
> XIU 16 october 2009 17.20
> XIU 15 october 2010 18.26


yes, you are correct, they are very close, can't find or even remember where i saw the better returns for zcn, probably was for a shorter period though checking again i see they have underperformed xiu in all periods since inception ... i am still bouncing around between a lot of sites (too many but i can't seem to make myself trim down ... i am td so i should just stick with their research which is pretty good)

well, if you are really stinking rich and you want to dump it all in one fund you can save $2000 per million on fees with zcn 



> If there is a sudden reversal of fortunes, junior stocks will get hammered the most!!


i have also read the same thing that someone posted earlier in the thread which is that the juniors are a good way to go if you want to get into gold at stage but yes, i agree, if you put more than 10% into gold you are really entering steep territory, though from what i read the last couple of days on the web, more think gold is going to run rather than pullback


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## Belguy

As suggested recently on BNN, it might be timely to purchase the larger gold stocks such as Barrick Gold as opposed to the smaller firms which could take a bigger hit in a downturn.

You pays your money and you takes your chances.


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## the-royal-mail

$1396.17


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## the-royal-mail

Jungle said:


> Nice, I hope it goes up for you. I'm sure it will after Bernake tells everyone the he's going to print money and buy bonds. The greenback should be good for toilet paper. Heck, maybe I'll buy a couple of gold oZ's myself..


You were right. 1397.24


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## Taxsaver

I like the charts on this website.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


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## Jungle

I can't stop singing this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMlqn_Hjyi8


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## CanadianCapitalist

Jungle said:


> I can't stop singing this:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMlqn_Hjyi8


Brilliant!


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## Taxsaver

Jungle said:


> I can't stop singing this:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMlqn_Hjyi8


Can't wait to hear it tonight. You are sure I should hear it?


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## davext

osc said:


> Looks like a bubble to me. I'll short it at $1500 with a target of 50% gain in 1 year.


Why at $1500? Is this an arbitrary number?


In regards to protecting yourself from a down turn, dividend paying gold companies might shield you a bit but the best way to save yourself is to get out IMHO and then start shorting or buying PUTs. I also think there is a lot of support as gold prices go down. More people will try to get into gold stocks or physical gold. 

I don't see that much upside or downside at this point yet but tomorrow could be a different story.


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## fatcat

> I don't see that much upside or downside at this point yet but tomorrow could be a different story.


 what about the possibility that qe2 won't work and we then see qe3,4 and 5 and every nation devalues it's currency to compete ?

are you entirely confident that we won't see a huge devaluation of fiat currency in general .. what then ?

what about the fact that india and china are both about to become very wealthy over the next few decades, you don't think they will want gold ?

gold is absolutely a risky asset that can come crashing down in a heartbeat

but the upside to gold is huge .... i think it's worth the risk to hold a small amount


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## Jungle

My oh my, up again before markets open. With all the currency issues and debt problems I can see it sustaining too..  

I still don't invest in gold.


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## the-royal-mail

$1416.99.

My friend and I were just discussing this. I feel that in times like these when countries are in debt and printing money, gold is a good place to consider parking your money. Someone's buying all of this. But it's also important that we all understand the entire system could crash at any second. So cash is always worthy of keeping as well.

$1418. Up $1.01 in the time it took me to write this. Wow.


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## HaroldCrump

So help me understand this.
Gold is priced in USD.
USD is dropping like a rock, ergo, the nominal value of gold is rising.
Where is the value add?

Everything priced in USD should be rising in nominal valuation, including commodities and common stocks.
Our base currency - the CAD has risen as well and thereby eroded some of the rise in the nominal valuation of gold.
Assuming USD keeps falling and gold keeps rising proportionately, what are we really gaining as investors?


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## the-royal-mail

Interesting. So you're suggesting the US dollar sucks, rather than gold rocks?


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## CanadianCapitalist

HaroldCrump said:


> So help me understand this.
> Gold is priced in USD.
> USD is dropping like a rock, ergo, the nominal value of gold is rising.
> Where is the value add?
> 
> Everything priced in USD should be rising in nominal valuation, including commodities and common stocks.
> Our base currency - the CAD has risen as well and thereby eroded some of the rise in the nominal valuation of gold.
> Assuming USD keeps falling and gold keeps rising proportionately, what are we really gaining as investors?


Like you point out, when USD goes down CAD goes up eroding some of gold's gains. But other commodity prices go up too, boosting the TSX and hence our Canadian equity portion. Not to mention gold stocks go up too and the TSX is close to 20% in gold stocks.


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## Taxsaver

Would it be more valuable to have a price chart in Canadian dollars? Does one exist?


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## el oro

Gold is in a true bull market. It is rising in all currencies. All currencies are going down in value with the USD more than most. So, gold will appreciate more in USD but you see appreciation even in the CDN $. Gold was $400CDN in 2001 and now >$1400CDN.

Stocks will rise with gold but gold will continue to outperform the TSX. Gold has been outperforming even the gold stocks. Why take the operational risk and risk of increasing taxes on earnings or mine nationalization when I can just own the physical? I like commodities but with gold I can keep a good chunk of my wealth in a small package.


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## Taxsaver

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Gold is in a true bull market. It is rising in all currencies. All currencies are going down in value with the USD more than most. So, gold will appreciate more in USD but you see appreciation even in the CDN $. Gold was $400CDN in 2001 and now >$1400CDN.
> 
> Stocks will rise with gold but gold will continue to outperform the TSX. Gold has been outperforming even the gold stocks. Why take the operational risk and risk of increasing taxes on earnings or mine nationalization when I can just own the physical? I like commodities but with gold I can keep a good chunk of my wealth in a small package.


How much does it cost to have stocked in a bank vault?


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## Belguy

The RBC Global Precious Metals Fund, which I am invested in, was down $2.562 today to $79.588 but that's OK as it is up 77.93% YTD as of October 31.


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## dogcom

Gold has been an easy investment to make with all these idiots printing money everywhere. And if they don't print it they can't pay the debts their currencies don't look good, gold still goes up. I figure China and so on are panicking from the money printing and wanting to unload their US dollars.

I don't know why people can't see this obvious reality. This will continue with horrible corrections along the way that might make you puke, but it will go higher until sound money returns to the world.


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## Mike59

Was wondering what everyone thinks about gold miners vs. the gold bullion going forward from here?

I own some Claymore SVR.UN, CGL but hesitate to sink in more into bullion funds given the high premiums over NAV. I've liked the idea of a fund like Central fund of Canada (CEF.A) but can't get over the high premium there either. My entry point into gold was way back between $1150-$1200/oz when I converted 25% of my portfolio into Gold Miners. I'm bullish enough to keep buying, hoping it dips to $1375 this week so I can buy more, but which fund!?

Have gold miners not outperformed the bullion historically during gold bull runs? I'm a Peter Schiff fan and he constantly says "the gold miners aren't even in on this yet", and seriously, when last was this guy wrong!? It seems to me like there is not only a good value in buying something broad (like XGD, or GDX), but the upside potential of a fantastic run going forward even relative to bullion (for those of us who believe conditions are ripe for gold going to the moon). Agree or disagree?


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## andrewf

China needs to let its currency rise. That is the root of all these problems. If China's currency rose and the trade imbalance between them and the US closed, there would be less need to pump money into their economy to stimulate activity and inflation. Either way China is screwed, as its reserves are going to take a big hit in value. But they have that coming to them for manipulating their currency and robbing their citizens.


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## the-royal-mail

Like belguy, I have invested in the RBC Global Precious Metals fund. It has a very reasonable MER of 2.04%. The growth of this fund since inception (as well as since my investment) has been phenominal. I am very happy with its performance, which almost always exceeds that of the CDN index fund I am also invested in.


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## andrewf

I'd say an MER of 2% is still high. You might be happy to pay it, but it's far from low.


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## fatcat

> Like belguy, I have invested in the RBC Global Precious Metals fund. It has a very reasonable MER of 2.04%. The growth of this fund since inception (as well as since my investment) has been phenominal. I am very happy with its performance, which almost always exceeds that of the CDN index fund I am also invested in.


 good purchase royal ... i would also add that almost every precious metal fund that holds silver and gold or either hads also done spectacularly well ... the mer is going to look very high when the going gets rough however ... which may be a long way off who knows ! ... seems like we are in bubble territory here ... all we need, god forbid, is some really good news and gold and silver will come crashing to earth but i think they are worth the risk


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## the-royal-mail

$1399


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## the-royal-mail

$1407.13


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## dogcom

I think the precious metal funds are a decent way to find exposure to that sector even with the higher MER. I think managers can outperform in specialized areas, where they cannot in the broader market.


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## andrewf

dogcom said:


> I think the precious metal funds are a decent way to find exposure to that sector even with the higher MER. I think managers can outperform in specialized areas, where they cannot in the broader market.


I agree. I can see active managers adding value in areas like small-cap miners or emerging markets. Even preferred shares. Anywhere where markets are not very efficient, really.


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## Belguy

Even though I preach buy-and-hold, I am getting nervous about my investment in the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund as we are definitely in bubble territory as it pertains to gold at least.

My plan is to lock in some profits on this fund early in the New Year as a part of my overall rebalancing chores.

You've got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them!!!

I hope that there is no 'flash crash' on gold before then!!!

History teaches us that EVERY bubble breaks sooner or later!!


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## the-royal-mail

belguy, with the utmost respect intended, I find your posts very contradictory. On one hand you keep reminding us that you are a buy and hold guy and are fine with ups and downs and are confident everything will be weathered by your approach. Then OTOH you frequently characterize everything with a high price as a bubble. You have done this in a few threads. You seem very nervous to me.


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## Taxsaver

25% of my RRP and RRSP is composed of the Precious Metals Fund (Mackenzie). I'm very satisfied with the results. The first thing I do in the morning, I check how much it increased or decreased from the day before. Twice a day, I check the price of gold and silver, just in case. If I want to get rid of the fund, I can do that on a phone call to the fund managers.

Here are a few details on the fund:

Compound returns as at Sept. 30, 2010: 18% on an annualized basis in the last three months .

Top holdings as at Sept. 30, 2010

Agnico-Eagle Mines 8.1%
Silver Wheaton 5.4%
Barrick Gold Corp. 5.2%
Randgold Resources 5.1%
Great Basin Gold 3.8%
Goldcorp Inc. 3.8%
CGA Mining 3.5%
NORTHAM PLATINUM LTD. 3.5%
Northern Dynasty Minerals 3.1%
Minefinders Corp. 3.0%
Total 44.6%


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## the-royal-mail

$1426.20

All-time record high!


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## Belguy

Bubbly!!


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## dogcom

This bubble I don't think is going away until everyone stops talking bubble and we also start to see a sound world currency. Gold will go higher with the whole world tripping over themselves trying to lower their currency and trying to get their huge debt loads under control .


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## Belguy

OK, all of you gold bugs out there have convinced me.

Tomorrow, I am transferring my entire portfolio to gold!!


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## Taxsaver

Belguy, you're obviously joking. But just for fun, let's see what would happen to your portfolio in the days, weeks and months to come.


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## furgy

I can't afford gold , I did however by some "poor mans Gold" , silver.

SLV in early November , ask me if I'm happy.


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## the-royal-mail

Very interesting, furby!

I approve of SLV. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=SLV-N


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## humble_pie

belguy you can't transfer your portfolio now because your cardinal rule says don't trade in an entire lifetime more than the fingers you can count on both hands.

you've posted that you are the proud owner of at least 15 different etfs, so we have an idea of what your hands look like already. Hey it's belguy scissorhands. But have you got another 15 or 20 fingers for the new transactions.


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## HaroldCrump

Methinks he is including his toes, too.


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## rookie

which is a good etf to buy for going long on gold and silver?


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## fatcat

> which is a good etf to buy for going long on gold and silver?


 i just bought XMA which has actually outperformed XGD over the last year ... it has mostly gold and silver miners but also includes potash, teck for copper and canfor and others for timber ... it's a bit of a commodities basket


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## Belguy

I hold XMA and also the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund. Some duplication likely there but I don't mind.


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## bean438

Gold does not produce income, and therefore has no value, only what someone is willing to pay you.

Here is what Warren Buffet says about gold:

"Look, you could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy all — not some — all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"


Nuff said. The end.


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## the-royal-mail

It's not the end. We're FAR from the end when it comes to gold.

Rightfully or wrongfully, the planet is running away from unstable monopoly money towards precious metals like gold, silver and copper. My RRSP has increased in value by 25% these past 6 months and I can thank most of those gains to my gold investments. Looks like lots of value to me.


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## Belguy

Just keep in mind that overpriced commodities can and have corrected suddenly and violently.

The elevator can shift direction and start falling so fast that it doesn't even touch the sides of the shaft on it's way down!

I'm not saying that is going to happen to commodities, including gold, this time but you at least have to be aware that it is a possibility.

You can't always successfully predict the future. That's where diversification comes in. It provides somewhat of a safety mechanism although it didn't help much in the crash of '08!


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## bean438

the-royal-mail said:


> It's not the end. We're FAR from the end when it comes to gold.
> 
> Rightfully or wrongfully, the planet is running away from unstable monopoly money towards precious metals like gold, silver and copper. My RRSP has increased in value by 25% these past 6 months and I can thank most of those gains to my gold investments. Looks like lots of value to me.



You can just as easily and quickly lose your gains.

Dont take this the wrong way, but Warren is a billionaire, and you (and I) are not.

I'll go with what he says.


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## dogcom

Gains in gold can and will be crushed at some point if you hold on long enough or you get caught and sell in a horrible correction that happens during gold bull markets. We could very well be going into one of those big corrections right now after yesterdays reversal. In any event buying and holding gold is a very nice ride if you are one who enjoys thrill rides at amusement parks.


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## Belguy

Article from the Globe and Mail re precious and base metals ETF's:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ld-plated-idea/article1829074/?cmpid=nl-bizt1


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## fatcat

> Here is what Warren Buffet says about gold:


 warren buffet, for all his virtues, has blind spots like all the rest of us ... gold is not an investment, it is a currency, and it and many of the other precious metals and things like diamonds could also become currency if we have a loss of trust in fiat currency ... if you don't think that's at least possible you must be reading different newspapers than me

i could see a day when the world would trade shares of commodity filled warehouses or have money backed by shares in a pool of commodity producers, it could happen ... warren just assumes that the world will keep going along like it always has, a fair assumption but he may be wrong

as it now stands, a small group of men can meet behind closed doors and decide to simply create "wealth" with the push of button, they are unelected and mostly unaccountable ... i see a growing unease with this all around the world and a growing demand to have currency backed by something tangible .. this is a sentiment that won't go away

gold is always a risky proposition and could tank overnight (but i think it is here to stay as a store of value .... the chinese and the indians love gold and they have'nt even begun to get wealthy yet)

i like XMA which has copper, silver (which has industrial value) and timber as well as potash for fertilizer ... it's diversified enough to soften a drop in gold i think


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## HaroldCrump

Mr. Buffet is probably correct from an investment and economic perspective.
I haven't read the original Buffet article so it's hard to say exactly what he meant and in what context (sometimes statements taken out of context can be very misleading).
However, Gold, used as a trading vehicle has produced good returns.
Someone who bought Gold at < $1,000 only a few months ago, has made very good profits.
Buffet's investment theory may not mean much to someone who has just made (say) $10,000 profit in 6 months.


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## osc

The problem with Gold is that you need to know when you exit, like any other stock (unless you think it will continue to outperform stocks forever and break the historical pattern with gold drastically under-performing). More likely than not, most people will try to exit at about the same time, and this will lead to a sharp sudden drop, not different than the 2008 stock market crash. Your 60-100% profit could quickly evaporate if you don't exit on time.
I am actually planning to start buying puts in GLD as soon as it gets to $1500 (if ever).


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## dogcom

I think we need to see a more parabolic rise that everyone is buying into and everyone talks about before this ends. Remember the internet blowoff from late 1999 to March 2000. I am sure you could have short the internet stocks in 1999 figuring that was an easy play only to get your head kicked off.


----------



## fatcat

> I think we need to see a more parabolic rise that everyone is buying into and everyone talks about before this ends.


maybe we should wait and see what happens when these gold vending machines hit the states ...... perhaps gold fever has further to run ....


> LAS VEGAS, Oct. 1 (UPI) -- A German company specializing in vending machines for bars of gold says the devices are headed to Las Vegas and Florida.
> 
> The makers of the Gold to Go machines said the devices accept cash and dispense 24-carat gold in 1-ounce bars and smaller bars of 10 grams, 5 grams and 1 gram, Gizmodo.com reported Friday.
> 
> The devices also dispense international coins, Gizmodo said.
> 
> The Las Vegas and Florida devices, which check gold prices six times per hour, are already available in 35 other locations, including the Middle East, Spain and Italy.


----------



## el oro

rookie said:


> which is a good etf to buy for going long on gold and silver?


There are plenty of funds that carry a basket of miners or hold gold or silver bullion. If a gold and silver bullion etf is what you're after, cef.a is about 50/50 gold/silver with a small mer and currently ~7% premium to NAV.


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## bean438

fatcat said:


> warren buffet, for all his virtues, has blind spots like all the rest of us ... gold is not an investment, it is a currency, and it and many of the other precious metals and things like diamonds could also become currency if we have a loss of trust in fiat currency ... if you don't think that's at least possible you must be reading different newspapers than me
> 
> i could see a day when the world would trade shares of commodity filled warehouses or have money backed by shares in a pool of commodity producers, it could happen ... warren just assumes that the world will keep going along like it always has, a fair assumption but he may be wrong
> 
> as it now stands, a small group of men can meet behind closed doors and decide to simply create "wealth" with the push of button, they are unelected and mostly unaccountable ... i see a growing unease with this all around the world and a growing demand to have currency backed by something tangible .. this is a sentiment that won't go away
> 
> gold is always a risky proposition and could tank overnight (but i think it is here to stay as a store of value .... the chinese and the indians love gold and they have'nt even begun to get wealthy yet)
> 
> i like XMA which has copper, silver (which has industrial value) and timber as well as potash for fertilizer ... it's diversified enough to soften a drop in gold i think


Warren purchases ownership in companies with a good economic moat at a value price.

He assumes people will continue to exist, and wake up, go to work, buy cars, shave, smoke, drink coke, buy things that need to be shipped by rail, etc.

I would think this is a safe assumption, and more likely than gold continueing to climb forever.

IMO gold belongs in the "greater fool " basket.

Not that i am saying people who buy gold are fools, but you are dependant on what another person will pay you for it in the future.

I'll stick to my dividend growth stocks from non cyclical companies.


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## OptsyEagle

My only problem with gold is that it cannot be valued. 

You see, if I own a company's shares, if selected properly, it will serve the purpose of protecting my wealth if a loss of confidence in fiat currencies happens ... and, just as importanly, I can put a pretty good number on the proper valuation I should pay for it. 

With gold, any price is the right price. As long as it is going up, everyone will want it. Once it starts going down, no one will. I really don't like investing this way. I don't know how to do it.


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## the-royal-mail

Eagle, I understand your points. I might add that I am not invested in any physical bullion at all. I am invested in the RBC Global Precious Metals fund, which is a basket of stocks mostly in mining companies. After considering all the options of owning the actual physical metal and reviewing the performance of this RBC fund, realized that this was the way to go.

Take a look at the fund charts on globe investor or similar websites. You will see that this fund has been around since 1988 and has performed marvelously since then, 2008 excepted. If I would have invested my $10K RRSP money in this fund back in 2001 when I started, I would be sitting on $200K right now. But even in the few months since I've invested, I've made excellent gains.

You're right about desirability when it goes down, but that point is exactly the same for any other product you invest in in the stock market. I look to fund performance and fees when choosing things to invest in.


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## Lephturn

bean438 said:


> IMO gold belongs in the "greater fool " basket.
> 
> Not that i am saying people who buy gold are fools, but you are dependant on what another person will pay you for it in the future.


You mean as opposed to the currency your investments and dividends are denominated in?

I'm not huge gold bug - but it's basically the only pure currency there is. It's not that the value of gold goes up, it's that the price... in your fiat currency of choice... goes up. Often because the value of the currency goes down.

Basically our entire global financial system operates on the "greater fool" theory by your way of thinking.


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## OptsyEagle

the-royal-mail said:


> Eagle, I understand your points. I might add that I am not invested in any physical bullion at all. I am invested in the RBC Global Precious Metals fund, which is a basket of stocks mostly in mining companies. After considering all the options of owning the actual physical metal and reviewing the performance of this RBC fund, realized that this was the way to go.
> 
> Take a look at the fund charts on globe investor or similar websites. You will see that this fund has been around since 1988 and has performed marvelously since then, 2008 excepted. If I would have invested my $10K RRSP money in this fund back in 2001 when I started, I would be sitting on $200K right now. But even in the few months since I've invested, I've made excellent gains.
> 
> You're right about desirability when it goes down, but that point is exactly the same for any other product you invest in in the stock market. I look to fund performance and fees when choosing things to invest in.


Hey Royal. I know I probably do not need to tell you this but for others reading this thread: In all my years of investing, not once have I ever seen a person, take an investment that had previously turned $10,000 into $200,000 in 10 years, and put $10,000 into it and turn that into $200,000 over the next 10 years. I have seen them turn $10,000 into $500 by investing in funds with those great track records, but never the other way around.

I suppose there is a first time for everything, but somehow, in this case, I doubt it.


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## fatcat

> Warren purchases ownership in companies with a good economic moat at a value price.
> 
> He assumes people will continue to exist, and wake up, go to work, buy cars, shave, smoke, drink coke, buy things that need to be shipped by rail, etc.
> 
> I would think this is a safe assumption, and more likely than gold continueing to climb forever.


 i agree that is a safe assumption but not guaranteed ...... i think the point is that gold is NOT an investment ... it is an alternate currency .... you can go and buy 831,682.23 of japanese yen for $10,000 CAD and if the yen goes up and the CAD goes down you can buy MORE CAD in the future, so you are using japanese yen as a better store of wealth than the CAD

the same is true of gold ... as many have pointed out, in terms of the price of gold the sp500 is falling and has been since around 2000

so gold is a store of value (especially against fiat currencies and especially the chief fiat currency ... the usd) not an investment


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## Belguy

At the risk of repeating myself, for a long term investment, I wouldn't put more than five to ten percent of my overall portfolio is gold but to each his own.

Caution!!! From tomorrow's Globe and Mail, for gold bugs, things are likely to end badly:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...old/article1833720/singlepage/#articlecontent

You have been warned!!!


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## dogcom

You could also say that jewelry demand could put a bottom in place. If gold drops in price pent up demand catches up when the price does drop.


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## fatcat

it seems to me that gold is essentially a bet against the people that manage and print our money ...

qe2 was supposed to bring bond yields down and yet they are rising still

gold doesn't make anything, it just sits there but it has the advantage of being trustworthy, you can't print it and you can't fake it (leaving aside the prospect of empty bullion vaults that should be full) it is a reliable and long standing symbol of wealth which is why it is now so popular

if the central banks and budget writers around the world suddenly appear to be getting their act together and implementing some stability to the global economic scene then gold could pull back sharply i think

i don't own any gold having sold all my gold coins, i do own XMA which has copper silver potash and timber as well as gold in it


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## bean438

fatcat said:


> i agree that is a safe assumption but not guaranteed ...... i think the point is that gold is NOT an investment ... it is an alternate currency .... you can go and buy 831,682.23 of japanese yen for $10,000 CAD and if the yen goes up and the CAD goes down you can buy MORE CAD in the future, so you are using japanese yen as a better store of wealth than the CAD
> 
> the same is true of gold ... as many have pointed out, in terms of the price of gold the sp500 is falling and has been since around 2000
> 
> so gold is a store of value (especially against fiat currencies and especially the chief fiat currency ... the usd) not an investment



There are NO guarantees, only reasonable assurences.

So I guess if you dont belive there is a guarantee of people continueing to exist, and do all the things I mentioned then why bother investing at all? That would mean an asteroid has hit the planet or we have been wiped out by aliens.

I'll stick with Buffet.


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## alphatrader2000

Mike59 said:


> Can someone please comment on the Central Fund of Canada (CEF.A) as an investment, and how does compare to a fund such as GLD...Obviously they include silver in the mix too, which I see as a good thing (I'm thinking of the ishares Silver bullion ETF as another option).
> 
> The CEF website claims that there are no fees, but searching other forums people say there is an annual MER of 2-3% to remain invested. Can someone please clarify?


One thing to watch on CEF is the fact it trades at premium from 4%-10%. As of last trading day it was trading @ 9% premium. so look at the NAV premium should you choose to buy this.


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## Taxsaver

I'm looking for a graph that will plot the gold price and the US dollar. Thanks.


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## andrewf

Gold price in what terms? If in terms of US dollars, you get the gold chart we always see, and a horizontal line for USD.


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## Taxsaver

Some say that the more the US dollars devaluates, the more the gold price goes up. I want a graph that will show me the correlation between those two.


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## the-royal-mail

goldprice.org


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## andrewf

Taxsaver said:


> Some say that the more the US dollars devaluates, the more the gold price goes up. I want a graph that will show me the correlation between those two.


Devalues in terms of what? Chickens? Marbles? Audi R8s? The price of gold in USD is already a graph of their relative change in value.


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## furgy

Originally Posted by Taxsaver : 


> Some say that the more the US dollars devaluates, the more the gold price goes up. I want a graph that will show me the correlation between those two.





andrewf said:


> Devalues in terms of what? Chickens? Marbles? Audi R8s? The price of gold in USD is already a graph of their relative change in value.


Andrew , that's exactly what I've been wondering since this thread was started , the price of gold is already quoted in US dollars , so that's all the corellation needed , just what else can you compare it to?

So for the sake of simplicity , I will go with chickens (see above) , the current spot price being 85.25 cents per pound.

85.25
Poultry (chicken), Whole bird spot price, Georgia docks, US cents per pound
As of: Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Source: USDA Market News

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=chicken

The California Chicken meat producers say the average live weight of a broiler chicken is 5lbs.
5 x 85.25 = $4.26 per chicken. 

Gold price = $1375 http://www.kitco.com/market/

$1375 / $4.26 = 322.77 

So , the price of gold is 322.77 , when quoted in average US live chickens , hope this helps.

Marbles and Audi R8s are not listed on any exchanges , so it's harder to compare.

Below is an actual gold chicken , they're very rare , probably worth more than face value.


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## el oro

Couldn't find a gold vs. chickens chart but the following should be fairly close.


Gold vs Cattle

Gold vs Hogs

Ignoring any income from milk produced, if you placed your cow money into gold a few years ago you could now buy more than twice as many cows!


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## humble_pie

lol.

seriously though, kitco shows gold in other major currencies like chf & yen & one often notices analysts paying attention to these figs as well as au in usd ...


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## el oro

If you like the streaming/royalty business model (RGLD, FNV, SLW), check out Sandstorm Resources, SSL.V. It's still an underfollowed baby but has made five good deals since inception. CEO is former CFO of SLW. The smaller players in this space have either become huge or are bought out. Gold Wheaton is in the process of being bought out by FNV. As the lone streaming company of it's size, they'll be able to take advantage of the projects that the big boys will overlook. Stock price is at a turning point. It will either drift to the low .70s or go retest the highs from here.

Question for the options experts: I've been researching advanced options strategies lately and wanted to know what brokers you use for combo trades. Questrade won't cut it as I have to leg in to spread trades at $9.95 + $1/contract. I know interactive brokers will probably be the best bet but what commissions are you paying?


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## humble_pie

interactive is indeed probably your best bet at the moment if you wish to transmit option spread orders.

IB commish for share trading can be more expensive than flat fee trading, though, especially for one who might habitually trade many thousands of venture exchange type penny stocks.

tdw's soon-to-debut think or swim will offer spread option orders at commish comparable to present tdw structure. Actually the tos US platform is up & running & available right now for anyone who has an all-US account. Think or thwim is working on integrating canadian markets into the platform & expect to launch the full bilateral service by mid-2011.

personally i think legging a spread order in is fine. One can often get a better result.

options in precious metals securities have high premiums in these times, are alluring for that reason. Merry xmas 1600 & best of luck with your 2011 strategies.


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## Belguy

"Everyone should invest in gold. Don't do it for greed. Do it to protect what you have. Do it to diversify your portfolio. You're buying some insurance against the unknown. It's a store of value and should be treated as such."

"As a rule of thumb, overweight gold mining stocks if you're optimistic about the stock market. Meanwhile, hold gold bullion if you feel that the stock market is facing a sharp decline."

"Gold mining stocks dramatically outperformed bullion during the stock market boom from 2002 to 2008. Since then, investors have been moving to wealth preservation. They're now less interested in speculating on mining stocks."

Ellen Roseman, Toronto Star.

"With stock markets now performing better and economic news improving, some of the investors who thought that gold would be a good place to hide if things got worse may be now deciding that they will do better in future investing in companies that benefit from the strong global economy."

Kate Warne, Canadian Market Strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis

In the final analysis, as they say, every dog has his day!!


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## the-royal-mail

My precious metals fund has been losing quite a bit of money this week. Some days over 3% lost per day. I see the metal is now at $1358.

The LT historical performance of my fund is still excellent but I suspect has been stunted lately by the blip of good job number news from the US. I do monitor daily.

How long do you guys hold funds that are in decline?


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## Four Pillars

the-royal-mail said:


> My precious metals fund has been losing quite a bit of money this week. Some days over 3% lost per day. I see the metal is now at $1358.
> 
> The LT historical performance of my fund is still excellent but I suspect has been stunted lately by the blip of good job number news from the US. I do monitor daily.
> 
> How long do you guys hold funds that are in decline?


What happened to your "I'll sell when it starts going down" strategy?

If you are going to do short term trading then you need to have a buying strategy AND a sell strategy.


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## the-royal-mail

I know. That's why I asked.


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## andrewf

I'm using a moving average as a sell point. My gold fund is still 8% above that number. It seems to me that gold is taking a breather and is not necessarily turning around. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Selling plans are essential. You shouldn't buy without an exit plan.


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## Belguy

I found out early on that I am not a good market timer. If I were, I probably would have sold some of my precious metals fund at the start of the year as part of my overall rebalancing strategy.

Precious metals funds can correct sharply from time to time. As Kevin O'Leary is fond of saying, the precious metals elevator can take a sudden fall so violent that it drops so fast that it doesn't even touch the side of the shaft on the way down.

That said, if you are a long term investor who is properly diversified with perhaps a 5 to 10 percent holding in precious metals, then you should just buy and hold your precious metals component. At times, it will help to support your overall portfolio when other investments are dropping and, at other times, the reverse will be true. That is the purpose of holding non-corelated investments. Bonds, for example, can have the same effect. They can help to lessen the volatility of your portfolio.

Now, on the other hand, if you have a large percentage of your portfolio is one sector, such as gold, then good luck to you as you could end up riding the elevator to the bottom of the shaft.

Buy, hold, diversify, rebalance, and prosper. Also, it might help if you don't watch your investments so closely from day to day which might lead you to sell at precisely the wrong time.

It's the long term results that count unless you need the money tomorrow in which case you shouldn't have it invested speculatively in the first place.

So, go and make yourself a nice, hot coffee and relax in your Easy Chair.

With risk, comes reward. That is likely why you invested in a precious metals fund in the first place but sometimes the ride can be a bit rough along the way. Ask yourself how this fund has performed long term and not just since the first of January for heaven's sake!!!


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## Argonaut

Gold seems to be stuck in between $1370 and $1420 for now. If you want to trade it, obviously buy low and sell high. But otherwise hold it because all the fundamentals for gold are strong long term. I haven't had the guts to sell gold when it has hit $1420 a few times, but I've had the discipline to not sell during drops. Probably best not to monkey around with it, buying more on dips if anything.


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## dogcom

Like you argonaut I have a core position in a gold fund that I have held. Outside of that I will trade small gold stocks or the HGU for a quick bang.


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## Belguy

I note that there hasn't been much activity on the old gold thread lately

How has the shiny metal been doing so far in the new trading year?

In a related matter, here are the top performing mutual funds in 2010 from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ous-metals-and-resource-funds/article1871476/

Do you think that precious metals and resource funds can repeat as the top performing categories in 2011?


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## the-royal-mail

Thanks belguy. My gold fund has done very poorly this year. Lost over 10% this year so far. I'm still ahead by about 15-20% but may have to cut my losses if this downward slide doesn't stop. It's just hard to argue with the long term performance of the fund and that my fund was 4th on your list. Wow.

2010 was the year of gold for sure. This year? Not so far.


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## Argonaut

2010 was the year of silver. The run there looks done for now though, and I took most of my profits a while ago. Gold on the other hand will perform well in the long run. I would be shocked if it didn't post an 11th consecutive annual gain this year. Every day there is less gold available, and more dollars available. Simple supply and demand.


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## Belguy

No, zylon, sad to say that, while I fully intended to do some rebalancing this month, I was slow off the mark and have watched the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund lose 7.69% of it's value in the past 30 days.

I realize that such specialty funds can be far more volatile than the broader indexes and so, because I have been invested in this fund for a long time now, I will just continue to hold it and rebalance out of it the next time that the opportunity presents itself.

By the way, the RBC Global Resources Fund has done just about the opposite over the past 30 days by gaining 7.39%. I wish that I held that fund as well!

As I mentioned elsewhere, just for interest's sake, the BMO Junior Oil ETF is up 42.83% over the past six months, ending December 31 and the Claymore Global Agriculture ETF is up 38.29% over the same time frame.


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## osc

Will be fun to watch when the panic sets in and everyone tries to cut the losses at the same time.


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## dogcom

We are going into the seasonal low in this gold correction. I am looking at probably around 1265-1280 on the low and then we will see what happens during the next rally.


----------



## MikeT

Sold abx to close my position first week of the new year. And now I hold no gold and no gold stocks anymore. (with the obvious exception of my Xiu index ETF)

I'm gambling a bit on a broad based bull market for stocks in 2011, which if true means the premium for gold will diminish. Let's just say I'm not holding any, but I certainly won't be shorting it either. (I'm not that confident).

I've never been a believer in gold as an asset since it doesn't actually grow like companies do. It just sort of sits there looking nice. Some Indian people buy some of it to actually use, and other people like to buy it when they are afraid of other assets. But 1 gold bar doesn't become 2 over time. (If that's not a direct quote from Peter Lynch it's pretty close)

But it has been hard to argue with performance over the last several years.


----------



## Argonaut

osc said:


> Will be fun to watch when the panic sets in and everyone tries to cut the losses at the same time.


Who is everyone? How many people do you know of that own gold? Of course the average Canadian is much more exposed to it due to the fact that we have the world's top gold companies. But still, very few people actually own it.



dogcom said:


> We are going into the seasonal low in this gold correction. I am looking at probably around 1265-1280 on the low and then we will see what happens during the next rally.


This is true. Last year it dropped $150 around this time, yet obviously went on to new highs. I was reading back and the "experts" were all extremely bearish when the price started dropping. Consistent gains, year after year. Yet everyone is always bearish on gold.

One of the things I like about precious metals is that they are such a pure investment, outlasting countries and companies alike. There is no CEO of gold to potentially manage it poorly, and there won't be any accounting scandals on the periodic table of elements.


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## ledtim

Gold reached $850 in 1980 before crashing. In real return terms (ie. accounting for inflation), gold's return from then to now is about -35%. 

Will history repeat itself? Who knows? Not me. That's why I have to work for a living.


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## dogcom

Wow argonaut you actually get what gold means so you haven't been corrupted yet. 

And once again I will repeat that gold is not normally a good investment it is a good investment when currencies are devaluing and the world is wobbly like it has been in the last 10 years. After the world recovers you can put the gold away or sell it and get back to normal.


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## Belguy

I don't specifically invest in pure gold but rather in a managed precious metals fund, the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund.

At my age, it just gives me an added peace of mind to leave it in the hands of professional managers who have had an excellent, long term track record.

Even though I am primarily an ETF investor, there are specialty sectors of my portfolio where I can see the advantages that professional management might bring.

Smallcaps and emerging markets are two other areas where professional managers might add value. 

Buy, hold, rebalance, and prosper.


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## Mike59

I noted this week that the global gold index fund (tracked by the ishares XGD) crossed below it's 200 day moving average. I was previously up to 20% total allocation to precious metal miners and bullion, but threw in the towel after this week's activity.

Today I sold all metal (CGL.to, SVR.UN, and TD Precious Metals) while up about 10% over the cost-base. It actually feels good to be in cash...The sleep at night factor is huge! No more checking kitco 24 hour spot gold several times per day to make sure I'm afloat!

I'm fairly new to investing and just turned 30, but have learned quickly that there's no large gain without huge risk. I think my romance with the yellow metal was a short-lived one, but a good learning experience... but now it's time to find a steady-long term partner, like XIC 

Belguy has "buy, hold, rebalance, prosper...", mine is:
"Don't Lose Money, Greed Kills!"


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## Belguy

I would only sell units of my precious metals fund for rebalancing purposes and not out of any sense of panic over short term results. I am aware of the fund's long term performance and so can accept the short term volatility that I know often comes with these types of investments.

You shouldn't chase after hot sectors but neither should you sell every time that there is a dip in the fund's value.

This is called trying to time the market which is widely known as an unsuccessful investment behaviour over the long run.

Buy (low if possible), hold (through all market conditions), rebalance (when your allocation outgrows it's original target), and prosper.

Then quietly observe all of the other investors out chasing their tails! 

Have a target asset allocation that you are comfortable with and stick with it.

For example, if your original target was 5 percent precious metals, and you were comfortable with that when you set it, then you don't have to concern yourself so much with the daily, weekly, or monthly gyrations of any given investment.

Have a coffee and relax!!!

P.S.: That doesn't mean that I still wish that I had done my rebalancing out of my precious metals fund at the first of the month instead of spending my time putting the Christmas crap away!!


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## osc

So you guys holding Gold for the long run, are you ok with the negative return over the long run? Now Gold may be at an historic high, but still its return over the last 20-30 years is abysmal. 
Personally, I don't see why gold is more expensive than other metals more useful, like copper or silver. It's not like there is a shortage of gold. The economic value of gold probably is at most at parity with silver.


----------



## I'm Howard

Over the last five years, were you better off holding Berkshire Hathaway, the sS&P Mid Cap, or the miners, over Gold??

Guess.


----------



## the-royal-mail

The performance of the RBC Precious Metals fund since inception in 1988 is hardly abysmal.


----------



## osc

I'm Howard said:


> Over the last five years, were you better off holding Berkshire Hathaway, the sS&P Mid Cap, or the miners, over Gold??


Speculation over a few years is one thing, but I was thinking about periods of 20-30 years. The return over 30 years in gold is negative (if adjusted for inflation). It seems that gold is a speculative trade, in both directions, if one guesses the direction at any particular moment.
In contrast to that, one could buy and hold a broad-based stock index and be almost sure that in 20 years or 30 years the return will be positive. Historically it has been.

Some guys here are talking about gold as a long-term investment. To me it looks like a pure speculative trade. It bets on world's economy going down the drain.


----------



## osc

the-royal-mail said:


> The performance of the RBC Precious Metals fund since inception in 1988 is hardly abysmal.


That's not only gold and if you look at the equity curve of that you realize that the inflation-adjusted return before 2001 was negative. Basically, precious metals had a great, bubbly decade. The curve for the last 10 years looks similar to Nasdaq in the 90s.
RBC Precious Metals


----------



## Belguy

RBC GLOBAL Precious Metals Fund:

Inception Date: 07/07

Annual Returns:

2010: +76.57%
2009: +67.03%
2008: -25.56%

Cumulative Returns:

1 Year: +76.57%
3 Year: +29.97%

As of December 31, 2010


----------



## Argonaut

osc said:


> So you guys holding Gold for the long run, are you ok with the negative return over the long run? Now Gold may be at an historic high, but still its return over the last 20-30 years is abysmal.
> Personally, I don't see why gold is more expensive than other metals more useful, like copper or silver. It's not like there is a shortage of gold. The economic value of gold probably is at most at parity with silver.


There is a definite shortage of gold compared to silver and copper. All the gold ever mined amounts to a cube the size of a baseball diamond. And it's getting harder to find, I've heard it from all of the CEO's of the major gold producers. Which is why they have to take over other companies in order to grow.

Precious metals is not for everybody. I've been hooked on them ever since I doubled my money in palladium. But I've made mistakes too and learned over time. This past quarter I learned that the GLD ETF is not for me. Too emotional seeing your dollar value go up and down without the security of holding the beautiful metal in hand. When I have just the maple leaf coins, I welcome dips as an opportunity to buy more. And there's no paper trail when the price is right to sell, either. 

SLV is a better ETF because the dealers I've looked at always seem to charge too much of a premium for physical silver, and it's more of a short term trade compared to gold.


----------



## the-royal-mail

The interesting thing is that my Canadian Index fund seems to have been a solid performer since I bought it in the summer. This year hasn't been good to it, but it hasn't dropped anywhere near as much as the 11% or so drop of my precious metals fund. I understand the whole long term buy and hold concept, but on a trend line that has me down 11% I am not sure how much more money I need to lose before pulling out. That's a terrible loss for 3 weeks.


----------



## Greyhound86

zylon said:


> One thing to keep in mind when investing in currency metals and mine stocks, is where the Cdn dollar might be headed. I've seen estimates (predictions) ranging anywhere from par with U$ to two times, by 2016. That's not a misprint ... one Cdn dollar buying two US$.
> 
> 
> 
> If the Cdn dollar were to double from today over the next five years, it would kick the stuffing out of any precious metals investment.


Good post. Something to consider for sure. 

I wonder if the conditions that would cause the Cdn dollar to dramatically rise vs the US dollar would also cause the price of gold to also rise dramatically (in US dollars)?

Another example similar to Zylon's:

The ETF's GDX and XGD both track the performance of the same global gold miners index. GDX is in US$, the other Cdn. GDX has increased 25% in the past year while XGD has increased 19%.

The Cdn $ has appreciated 6.5% over the same time period.

In this example no matter what ETF you had bought you would have ended up with the same amount of Cdn $ at the end of the year. 

Other investments might not show the same results. Some might be better off in US$, others Cdn. That is for someone smarter than me to figure out.


----------



## Greyhound86

One more thing that I would like to point out is that in this thread there seems to be some confusion. Evaluating the worthiness of an investment in gold bullion seems to be getting mixed up with the returns from mutual funds holding gold and other precious metal miners. 

Holding gold bullion over a long period may or may not be a good investment. 

Same with the miners. They are both related but the returns may not be the same. A fund may load up on some small/medium sized miners that hit some home runs (or strike out) which may cause the fund to outperform the price of gold.

RBC Precious Metals fund started in Oct 1988. According to GlobeFund a $10,000 investment is now worth $254,000. If you bought US$10,000 worth of gold bullion in Oct 1988 it would now be worth US$35,000. 

Owning gold bullion may provide great returns and provide some peace of mind going forward but it has not in the past 20+ years. 

As usual I cannot decide which is best so have bought miners through GDX and also some gold and silver through ETF's that hold physicals.


----------



## Argonaut

Eric Sprott interview: http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/1/24/Precious-metals-pullback-not-concerning-Sprott.aspx

Of course, Sprott is probably the biggest precious metals bull in Canada. But he spends his entire life researching them, so I would take what he says into account before random pundits. What I disagree with is the 16:1 target ratio of silver to gold. My own ratio is 50:1, which is why I was buying silver in the mid 60's and selling when it hit the mid 40's. In the last 15 years the ratio has fluctuated between 80:1 and 40:1.

Best part: He proudly states his portfolio is 80% precious metals and he doesn't lose any sleep over it. That's twice what I'm comfortable with!


----------



## Mike59

$1345-> $1325 on the overnight international exchange...

Any other market timers heading for the exits?


----------



## Four Pillars

Mike59 said:


> $1345-> $1325 on the overnight international exchange...
> 
> Any other market timers heading for the exits?


Does anyone know what price gold was trading at the beginning of the year?


----------



## the-royal-mail

zylon said:


> (2010 closed at 1,420.70)
> Historical currency exchange rates can be found here.


...


----------



## andrewf

I'm getting close to my sell point. We'll have to see.


----------



## dogcom

How many of you would ride a wild bull and not the investment kind?

This is what holding gold has been like since the bull market started in 2001. The corrections will be so horrible you will puke all over yourself. I think it will get worse still but at the end of the year those who bought here will be happy.


----------



## Belguy

The lower the prices go, the more bargoons my precious metals fund manager will find to invest in.

When the prices drop, the sale prices begin!!

The current disappointment here might be the realization that nothing goes up forever in a straight line.

Buy low and never chase after hot sectors.

In fact, the smartest investors look for beaten down sectors to invest in.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Alright. Everyone seems to think this is a good time to buy gold. Has anyone here actually done so at this time? It ended the day at around $1330 an oz US.

Frankly, the job and housing numbers out of the US continue to suck. There really isn't any good news to cause gold to decline. I don't quite understand WHY it is going down to rapidly. There is no good economic news to cause this.


----------



## KaeJS

I would wait and see how the rest of this week pans out first. You may be able to get in at something like $1320/oz instead. If it starts going up again (and by this I mean a positive closing price that is at least somewhat significant) then buy in immediately.


----------



## dogcom

The-royal-mail gold is going down because it is time for it to make its seasonal low. So all the fast money is going out like it does in every hot sector. The weak hands are being washed out. In fact after a rally here another wave of selling will take place as those wanting to get out sell into the strength.


----------



## Argonaut

Nice link, zylon. It comes back to the fundamental point of not listening to what a random person's outlook is on gold. Remember "The Richest Man in Babylon". Don't trust a brick-maker to invest your money in jewels. When you want information on precious metals, listen to people who study precious metals.

I would love to work at Sprott one day. Discussing precious metals all of the time, jumping into gold Scrooge McDuck style.. oh boy.


----------



## MikeT

the-royal-mail said:


> Frankly, the job and housing numbers out of the US continue to suck. There really isn't any good news to cause gold to decline. I don't quite understand WHY it is going down to rapidly. There is no good economic news to cause this.


Jobs and housing are trailing indicators. If you wait for those to improve you miss the boat. 

There has been a ton of positive earnings news. Stocks are going higher baby!! Gold is for suckers now!!

Just my 2 cents. Feel free to ignore. I'll probably buy gold next month too.


----------



## fatcat

> Frankly, the job and housing numbers out of the US continue to suck. There really isn't any good news to cause gold to decline. I don't quite understand WHY it is going down to rapidly. There is no good economic news to cause this.


 i think there are bits and pieces of hopeful news all over the place ... we may be nearing the bottom even with the usa housing numbers which i think may nudge somewaht lower and stay low for awhile but are not going to tumble another 20% or something (california has bottomed i believe) ... i would look for gold to continue to correct below say 1300 and then maybe get back .. a few really good numbers though and gold could really tank

i decided to go with XMA which has a lot of gold but also has silver, potash and timber to soften any hit to gold

beware the siren song of the gold bug


----------



## osc

Anyone going long in Gold (or increasing their positions)? There may be some short-term opportunity for another leg up (maybe to 1500) if the chaos spreads in the oil producing dictatorships and the theocracy grabs the power.


----------



## MikeT

China's playing catchup bigtime. Finally clear to them that keeping the yuan low by buying treasuries was a disaster in the making. 

The thinking goes that they can do this slowly in a controlled manner thus eliminating a disastrous rapid currency rise. I think its far too late for that and signs like this are evidence. 

If you're China and you have to sell your currency to keep it from rising too fast, what do you buy with it? Gold is a good option. Any base material is a good option, as is real property.

The debt of a country that can't afford any more debt is a bad idea.


----------



## HaroldCrump

MikeT said:


> China's playing catchup bigtime. Finally clear to them that keeping the yuan low by buying treasuries was a disaster in the making.


In addition to keeping their exports cheap, their whole socio-economic system also influenced their need to keep the Yuan undervalued.
An appreciating local currency will increase the domestic demand for consumption goods, most/all of which are imported.
The middle class will demand for and be able to pay for imported consumer goods.
A strong consumer based economy and a strong middle class usually requires and demand more freedom and democracy.
But for the ruling elite, freedom and democracy are bad words.
Thus the solution was to discourage the consumption of goods, keep the middle class suppressed and continue the communistic rule.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Any idea what's happening with gold these past 24 hours? It's up past $1352 now in a sharp rise.


----------



## MikeT




----------



## plen

the-royal-mail said:


> Any idea what's happening with gold these past 24 hours? It's up past $1352 now in a sharp rise.


Egypt unrest? marina628 was mentioning it anecdotally in this post.


----------



## dogcom

I used everyones favorite thing and that is TA for an entry point to buy Goldcorp a couple of days ago. Anyway I think even though gold has a lot going for it and is in a solid uptrend I think the size of the move is probably everyone covering their short positions.


----------



## Belguy

Set your gold/precious metals allocation at a percentage that you are comfortable with and that will allow you to sleep at night considering that this can be a volatile sector. Then, just rebalance whenever that allocation gets out of balance.

For this older investor, who primarily invests in the lowest fee, broadest based ETF's, my target allocation is 5 percent precious metals.

If I were a younger whipper snapper, I might move that to 10 percent.


----------



## the-royal-mail

As an update to this, if anyone here was concerned about the recent dip on gold/MF prices, they have mostly recovered back to December levels now. The metal is at $1367 right now, so if you wanted to get off the bus and sell/reduce your precious metal investment with minimal loss, now might be a good time.


----------



## andrewf

Gold stayed above the 200 day SMA, so I think it was a little early to be calling it a correction. Gold seems to just be taking a breather like it did around this time last year. We'll see if it moves higher. I rebalanced some money into gold at the beginning of the month.


----------



## Argonaut

Gold is heating up again. We'll see what happens when it hits North America tomorrow. If it clears $1420 this week, it could go straight to $1500.

I don't even know what to say about silver. I made my money there and will let others ride that rollercoaster.


----------



## Belguy

With all of last year's gains with my RBC Global Precious Metals Fund, I know that the right thing to do would be to now rebalance it back down to my original allocation which is 5 percent of my overall portfolio. However, I am having a difficult time pulling the trigger on that and may end up revising my original allocation to 10 percent of my portfolio and then rebalancing down to that revised target.


----------



## the-royal-mail

That would be the safe thing to do, yes. It depends on your age and how much risk you are willing to take. Nobody knows what the future holds. I think young people should take this type of risk, but for older people the risk should be managed in a way that even a catasrophic loss wouldn't have a major effect on their entire portfolio. Just my opinion though.


----------



## andrewf

10% precious metals weighting sounds high for an old guy like you, belguy. How much of your portfolio is fixed income?


----------



## kid5022

sigh....
cant believe silver and gold went up so much
now i dont know if i should buy...
anyone put their physical gold in their tfsa/rrsp????


----------



## kid5022

Berkshire in gold









dow in gold









purchasing power rise, than drop, and is dropping....


----------



## Argonaut

kid5022 said:


> sigh....
> cant believe silver and gold went up so much
> now i dont know if i should buy...
> anyone put their physical gold in their tfsa/rrsp????


Doesn't really make sense, you can hide your physical gold from the taxman anyways. And if you're doing it through a brokerage it's still paper gold in reality. I think the best way to play paper gold is CGL.. it's currency hedged so you're playing a falling US dollar and rising gold all at once. I will be buying it once my Questrade is setup.


----------



## kid5022

Argonaut said:


> Doesn't really make sense, you can hide your physical gold from the taxman anyways. And if you're doing it through a brokerage it's still paper gold in reality. I think the best way to play paper gold is CGL.. it's currency hedged so you're playing a falling US dollar and rising gold all at once. I will be buying it once my Questrade is setup.


yeah it just doesnt make sense
end up going to put stocks in to the rrsp/tfsa
couldnt believe i was stuck thinking about such a stupid question for 2 days
lmao


----------



## Belguy

My current bond allocation is 30 per cent.

My target bond allocation is 40 per cent.

My current precious metals allocation is 10.4 per cent.

My current emerging markets allocation is 13.7 per cent.

My current Canadian equity allocation is 23.6 per cent.

My current U.S. equity allocation is 12.5 per cent.

My current International equity allocation is 4.4 per cent.

Balance in cash.


----------



## andrewf

I'd go with something more in the 5% range on precious metals and maybe add some real estate exposure. 10% will hurt when gold inevitably corrects. Especially since you seem to be in a high beta mutual fund (high volatility).


----------



## I'm Howard

andrewf, what do you mean when gold corrects, are you implying that the US will get control of its' debt?

Gold is not going up, the printing presses are turning out piles of paper, that is what gold is reflecting.

Do you trust Politicians, will Government debts get smaller, if the answer is No, Buy Gold.


----------



## Argonaut

25% gold is ideal.

It has not come up that much this year. It's only outperforming the indexes by about 5% on a one year basis. Gold is an asset class just as important as stocks or bonds. How long will it take for people to realize this? Do you need 10 more years of outperformance? Gold declined in the 90's largely because central banks were selling it as fast as they could. Now the smart central banks are buying again, as are the smart investors.

I reiterate my permanent portfolio:

50% Stocks
25% Precious Metals
25% Cash and/or Bonds


----------



## the-royal-mail

I'm Howard said:


> andrewf, what do you mean when gold corrects, are you implying that the US will get control of its' debt?
> 
> Gold is not going up, the printing presses are turning out piles of paper, that is what gold is reflecting.
> 
> Do you trust Politicians, will Government debts get smaller, if the answer is No, Buy Gold.


Agreed. My answer is 'NO' to the last question.


----------



## andrewf

I'm Howard said:


> andrewf, what do you mean when gold corrects, are you implying that the US will get control of its' debt?
> 
> Gold is not going up, the printing presses are turning out piles of paper, that is what gold is reflecting.
> 
> Do you trust Politicians, will Government debts get smaller, if the answer is No, Buy Gold.


'Gold's going to the moon!'

We've heard that story before. Do you think 75-year-olds should be betting their grocery money that you're right?

Edit: I should clarify that I currently have a 10% portfolio weight in gold. I'm advocating for asset class diversification.


----------



## kid5022

Do you trust Politicians, will Government debts get smaller, if the answer is No, Buy Gold.

My answer is No too, currently i have 0 gold and silver which is(makes me) very sad

anyone could provide/point me to the direction of a CAD index data?
want to see how much gold had rise in comparison to USD


----------



## Belguy

The current instability in the Middle East and North Africa may present an opportunity for investors like me who have planned to rebalance out of some of our precious metals holdings and lock in some gains.

At my age, I don't want to let any of my allocations get too far out of balance.

Greed is not always good when it comes to investing.


----------



## kid5022

hey guys here is a graph of gold in usd and cad









hope its useful~


----------



## I'm Howard

Remember Jack traded his cow for magic beans, same scenario, differant players.

Gold is universal and reflects the economic conditions of each country, some countries it takes thousands of dollars to buy an ounce, others it takes hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy an ounce.

Bottom line, Politicians can't screw with it, real money.

RBC Precious Metals is a great long term fund, and don't buy unless you can ignore for ten years.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1411.70


----------



## Brian Weatherdon CFP

Nice graph above....I wish it could capture what happened in the 80s. 

Buying gold with a 10 year horizon doesn't necessarily make sense. If you could recall the newspaper columns and discussions through the 1980s, and widespread confusion as gold was falling.....well you simply wouldn't ponder a 10 year horizon from here forwards. We've already had an awesome 10 years.

Gold will do what it will do. I believe owning it today continues to have strong rationale. But I wouldn't now tuck it away for 10 years without at least looking at how the rationale is holding up. 

BW


----------



## dogcom

I agree Weatherdon, 10 years is to long to leave gold alone. I am expecting a blow off top at some point in the next few years or so like the early 80's and then you will want to get out fast. In 10 years you could see it go to $10,000 and then back to $1,000 in that time frame.


----------



## cosmica76

Good and prognostic graph!

In recent months the gold is still more powerful. Maybe new resurrection of gold and friendly concurrency against the silver in forex markets.


----------



## kid5022

Brian Weatherdon CFP said:


> Nice graph above....I wish it could capture what happened in the 80s.
> 
> Buying gold with a 10 year horizon doesn't necessarily make sense. If you could recall the newspaper columns and discussions through the 1980s, and widespread confusion as gold was falling.....well you simply wouldn't ponder a 10 year horizon from here forwards. We've already had an awesome 10 years.
> 
> Gold will do what it will do. I believe owning it today continues to have strong rationale. But I wouldn't now tuck it away for 10 years without at least looking at how the rationale is holding up.
> 
> BW


i could if someone could provide me the currency exchange of cad to usd of the 80s


----------



## HaroldCrump

zylon said:


> I've often wondered why mutual funds don't use options as protection against severe downdrafts in the market. This was discussed briefly in another thread some time ago ... I can't find it now.


Hmm...I thought they _did_.
At least most of the common equity mutual funds run by the main banks or insurance companies do hedge their downsides using options.
They are probably limited to what and how much derivatives they can use (like they can't short sell, etc.)
At least that was my understanding.


----------



## RichmondMan

I agree with the author of thread. That´s crazy. In my opinion many financial analysts assumed this extreme development of the gold. I cannot conjucture a peak of increased golden commodity at the moment, but this acceptable process for investor will be stopped during the following weeks.


----------



## I'm Howard

The value of gold does not change, the amount of printed IOU's does.

Buying Gold in its' physical form is very easy, buying it in the US, saves HST.

I am perterbd by bottom fishers, the ownership of gold is a lifetime committment.

A relative, German, 85, has held gold in coin forms wince the end of WW11, it is the only asset he trusts, there were never plans to sell them, they are the family legacy.

People that worry about exits and entrances should not buy that asset, whether it be a house, a stock, a bond, gold, you should buy with no plans to sell until forced to.


----------



## Argonaut

I'm Howard said:


> The value of gold does not change, the amount of printed IOU's does.
> 
> Buying Gold in its' physical form is very easy, buying it in the US, saves HST.
> 
> I am perterbd by bottom fishers, the ownership of gold is a lifetime committment.
> 
> A relative, German, 85, has held gold in coin forms wince the end of WW11, it is the only asset he trusts, there were never plans to sell them, they are the family legacy.
> 
> People that worry about exits and entrances should not buy that asset, whether it be a house, a stock, a bond, gold, you should buy with no plans to sell until forced to.


Best post I've read in a while.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1422.10. Looks like we are headed towards the earlier December record, which IIRC was around $1425-1430US/oz.

Anyone worried about their holdings of this metal, this might be a good time to step off the bus while the yield is high. Sell now, then buy back later when the price is low. I know a few of us here were worried last month. I'm going to stay put for now.


----------



## andrewf

I lightened up in December and bought some in January, but that was driven by rebalancing and not by the gold price.


----------



## the-royal-mail

andrewf said:


> I lightened up in December and bought some in January, but that was driven by rebalancing and not by the gold price.


Great timing!


----------



## andrewf

It's funny, it's happened more because of how equities were performing. Markets were a bit soft in Dec relative to gold and vice versa in Jan. It's been pretty strange. I can't say I have a very good gut feeling about the market, but I'm trying to stick to a more objective strategy. So far it's been working reasonably well.


----------



## the-royal-mail

I may be wrong, but isn't gold currently at a record high?

$1438.70.


----------



## Argonaut

Yeah, it's at a record price in $US but not $CAD.


----------



## Belguy

Precious metals funds YTD returns from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ckup-on-precious-metals-funds/article1931026/


----------



## Mike59

*Gold's influence on the entire TSX*

What does everyone think about the fact that the TSX index is already quite gold-heavy? My last calculations had it around 12% in gold mining stock alone. 

As gold rises and the miner index follows suit, does this not overly concentrate one's holdings in one sector. I notice many people have a "precious metals allocation" , often to gold miner ETFs/mutual funds, but I wonder if they are accounting for the fact that their Canadian equity ETFs already get them up there with the same holdings. 

Does anyone see a maximum point of how much of the TSX could be gold stocks if gold keeps ascending faster than the market? 20%, 30%?


----------



## Argonaut

Mike: Ideally a gold allocation is not including miners and specific companies themselves. Some say otherwise, but this is my thinking at least. Exposure to a metal like gold contributes something entirely different to a portfolio than a gold miner. I would say holding Barrick is a lot more like holding Teck than it is like holding gold itself.


----------



## CB1021

Hi guys,

Read couple of pages of this thread, nice to see you some of you guys capitalize. 

I got one more fundamental question though. Gold is regarded as a currency which does not inflate, thus allowing the the holder to maintain purchasing power. One reason for this is because gold is rare, and its supply cannot be increased by the push of a button. Ok, got it. 

Aren't Chinese Giant Pandas more rare though? Why not use Pandas as a base/real currency? Both gold and pandas take on similar attributes which contribute to their value: rarity, beauty, don't they? Both which are superficial and cultural....The actual real value of gold/pandas as a commodity for producing something people consume is much less than the "inflated" market price I'd suspect. 

I'm not a big believer in the "value" of gold as an investment due to the fact it has no real usage except in a superficial system where it maintains high purchasing power. But the gains don't lie. Wouldn't mind jumping on the yellow bus for a while before the tire wear out eventually and spin out.


----------



## fatcat

anyone familiar with:

PRECIOUS METALS BULLION TRUST (Public, TSEBU.UN) from the Brompton Group ? 

MER of .35 

equal dollar exposure of gold, silver and platinum

currently trading at a *discount* to nav of $18.01/17.87 (unusual for precious metals)

bullion held at bank of nova scotia

i have been looking at claymore but this looks better, i like the diversification


----------



## Argonaut

CB1021 said:


> Why not use Pandas as a base/real currency?


Now we're just getting silly.



fatcat said:


> equal dollar exposure of gold, silver and platinum


I've seen some of these out there. Might be okay for someone buying and holding precious metals in general. I'd rather set my own allocations though. Would be selling silver and palladium, buying gold and platinum right now. Makes sense in theory, but silver keeps outperforming and it's tough to impose my will on the markets.


----------



## kid5022

CB1021 said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Read couple of pages of this thread, nice to see you some of you guys capitalize.
> 
> I got one more fundamental question though. Gold is regarded as a currency which does not inflate, thus allowing the the holder to maintain purchasing power. One reason for this is because gold is rare, and its supply cannot be increased by the push of a button. Ok, got it.
> 
> Aren't Chinese Giant Pandas more rare though? Why not use Pandas as a base/real currency? Both gold and pandas take on similar attributes which contribute to their value: rarity, beauty, don't they? Both which are superficial and cultural....The actual real value of gold/pandas as a commodity for producing something people consume is much less than the "inflated" market price I'd suspect.
> 
> I'm not a big believer in the "value" of gold as an investment due to the fact it has no real usage except in a superficial system where it maintains high purchasing power. But the gains don't lie. Wouldn't mind jumping on the yellow bus for a while before the tire wear out eventually and spin out.


i take it you are talking about real panda? and not panda coins?
u could break gold into different pieces/size, its just gold every bits should be similar. Now try doing it to a panda


----------



## Greyhound86

kid5022 said:


> i take it you are talking about real panda? and not panda coins?
> u could break gold into different pieces/size, its just gold every bits should be similar. Now try doing it to a panda


Good point about the Pandas as a poor investment.

To add: My father once told me "never invest in anything you have to feed or paint"

Gold doesnt pay a dividend but at least you dont have to feed it and clean up its mess.


----------



## kid5022

speaking of gold
anyone bought or are interested with sprott physical gold trust?


----------



## stawkes

Rubicon way up today.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...-gold-project-red-lake-ontario-118982709.html

Looks promising.


----------



## ArmchairHero

Amazing... is RBC precious metals worth getting into now with gold and others being so high?


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1453US/oz.
$1399.75 CDN.

Wow. It has been rallying since mid-morning. I wonder why. This is surely some type of a record. Again.


----------



## ddkay

Think it has to do with today's FOMC meeting: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20110315.htm


----------



## Argonaut

I certainly wouldn't read that whole thing, but the gist of it is probably: "What do we do? I dunno, let's print more money." 
This is why one needs to own gold.


----------



## fatcat

i own XMA and bought more today and plan to keep it for the long haul..

but i go back and forth on precious metals, i can see both sides of the argument and lately i am leaning toward the "it's not a cycle anymore" ... there will be cycles of gold and silver going up and down but i think a steady upward movement is here to stay 

i no longer see any reason for gold to drop below 1000 or silver below say 25 again...

the fundamentals are too compelling, i.e. gold and silver are getting harder to extract, silver has a lot of industrial uses, gold is very popular in 2 cultures (india and china) who are about to increase their material wealth by leaps and bounds

my question is this: when does conventional wisdom get redefined ?

i.e. conventional wisdom says gold will retreat (maybe even spectacularly) as soon as the world calms down and people regain faith in fiat currency (certainly possible) and the debt picture looks better, inflation eases etc ... this would all point to a pullback in gold ..

but something feels different this time ...

i wonder if we are going to need to re-write conventional wisdom on this one ?


----------



## Taxsaver

In Toronto, I've found the cheaper place to buy silver was at a place on Yonge and Eglinton. I had to pay a $4 premium on each ounce. I could have ordered though Internet, but I would have to pay shipping and insurance. Anyone ever bought on Ebay, Craiglist or whatever?


----------



## fatcat

> In Toronto, I've found the cheaper place to buy silver was at a place on Yonge and Eglinton. I had to pay a $4 premium on each ounce. I could have ordered though Internet, but I would have to pay shipping and insurance. Anyone ever bought on Ebay, Craiglist or whatever


i would recommend these guys as first rate sellers and buyers of metals: http://bordergold.com/index.php

i bought gold coins from them (which i have since sold) and the transaction was smooth and safe


----------



## MikeT

Did somebody say "it's a new era!!"

That's one of the signs in the bubble phase. People start to redefine the asset and begin using phrases like "new era."

Same with Canadian real-estate. No problems though. It's logical to invest in a bubble as long as you are not close to the end of that bubble. I'm long both gold and Canadian real-estate. And silver too for that matter.


----------



## Argonaut

MikeT said:


> Did somebody say "it's a new era!!"
> 
> That's one of the signs in the bubble phase. People start to redefine the asset and begin using phrases like "new era."
> 
> Same with Canadian real-estate. No problems though. It's logical to invest in a bubble as long as you are not close to the end of that bubble. I'm long both gold and Canadian real-estate. And silver too for that matter.


In Canadian dollar terms, gold has been fairly flat since October. What you're seeing with gold is the market's reaction to the US dollar becoming more worthless. Gold is not a bubble. Bubble is at least $2000 in a very short term, which I do not think will happen. $1686 by year's end, strong and steady.

Silver is some cause for concern, however. It has more than doubled in the last six months. I hesitate to call the top because I won't be able to, but the current 36:1 ratio is a warning sign.


----------



## fatcat

for all you gold bulls out there, here is a podcast that will confirm your prejudices .... (cliff notes version: it's all about india and china)

Standard Chartered’s Smith Says Metals in Special Place: Audio

Apr 14, 2011

Dan Smith, metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, says precious metals "are in a special place right now" as the rate of inflation rises. Smith talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/ve43fiOMC8Lg.mp3


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1493.28 (us)
$1448.93 (cdn)


----------



## webber22

Make sure that user *$1600 Gold by 2011* announces the $1600 high


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1502.53 (us)
$1429.45 (cdn)


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1510.94.

Anyone know why?


----------



## fatcat

> $1510.94.
> 
> Anyone know why?


 let me know when you find out ...


----------



## andrewf

I'm not a big fan of this-caused-that financial journalism. Usually they are careful to couch it as correlation, but the causation is implied.

"The Canadian dollar rose today as expectations of M&A activity increased" is essentially the same as "The Canadian dollar rose today as expectations of the Hab's Cup chance increased".

I think this kind of journalism is at best a waste of time (trying to avoid just reporting a stream of number by creating a narrative) and at worst a grave disservice to readers.

[/rant]


----------



## el oro

Agreed Andrew. But the reporters are probably right about the reason for the spike today. FED meeting where the Bernanke has indicated unchanged stance on inflation and record low rates for the foreseeable future. The USD took a big hit.

The recent super short correction of gold/silver was your chance to get on the train. Would not surprise me to see minimum 1575 gold and 53 silver before I sell all paper gold/silver in May/June (4-6wks frm now) and go away


----------



## Mockingbird

Agree with the reasons above. FOMC today. According to the minutes, Fed intends to keep the rates low despite increased inflation in recent months.

MB


----------



## webber22

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> ....Would not surprise me to see minimum 1575 gold and 53 silver before I sell all paper gold/silver in May/June (4-6wks frm now) and go away


Gold does have a seasonal fall in price during the summer ...... but I hope you wait till it hits 1600 at least


----------



## the-royal-mail

1537.24

By contrast, my US Index fund continues to perform poorly.


----------



## HaroldCrump

the-royal-mail said:


> By contrast, my US Index fund continues to perform poorly.


Probably because the CAD continues to strengthen vis-a-vis the USD.
This is one of the dangers of unhedged foreign currency investment.
Works both ways, though, like when the home currency weakens.


----------



## ddkay

Picking up a few oz's of gold this afternoon, at any cost I believe it's important to have a core position in PMs, until now I've been 100% cash spread over bonds and equities. If I'm wrong, I'm young to enough (21) to earn back the loss in my life time. At least I can sleep at night whichever direction this is moving.


----------



## Taxsaver

ddkay said:


> Picking up a few oz's of gold this afternoon, at any cost I believe it's important to have a core position in PMs, until now I've been 100% cash spread over bonds and equities. If I'm wrong, I'm young to enough (21) to earn back the loss in my life time. At least I can sleep at night whichever direction this is moving.


It always boils down to your health. Do what you're confortable with. 

Even if prices go down a lot in the next few weeks, you can almost be sure they're going to be even higher in the fall. 

I'm looking at the live price of silver. It seems that people are afraid to approach the rounded number US $50. There will be a lot of big price movement until next Monday.


----------



## the-royal-mail

How is it the US can continue to suck so bad?? The performance of this metal seems largely tied to this as investors flee. The other thing that's strange is why we seem to be in relatively good shape here. Usually we're affected by what happens down there, at least by product exports. That is of course not the only link but sheesh.


----------



## ddkay

That's the thing.. it's not just the US... Dollar's Race To The Bottom


----------



## v_tofu

perhaps the wrong place to ask, but is gold or silver bullion or even mining stocks tax deductible with the smith manveoure??


----------



## andrewf

Miners yes, bullion no. You're welcome! 

(The reason is that there is no reasonable expectation of profit in metals speculation, whereas investing in a miner is a reasonable expectation of profit)


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1558.36.


----------



## v_tofu

the-royal-mail said:


> $1558.36.


Is Gold going up? Or is the US currency going down?


----------



## the-royal-mail

Good point. It's at $1570 now. Up $35 today alone.

Maybe ddkay has a point. If he's right, that's one heck of a freefall for US currency. Wow.


----------



## ddkay

depressing to see what our governments can do. I'm surprised Americans aren't in Washington right now with pitchforks.


----------



## v_tofu

ddkay said:


> depressing to see what our governments can do. I'm surprised Americans aren't in Washington right now with pitchforks.


I'ts because americans are blinded sheep. Too busy following the Kardashians, lining up for white Iphones to bother with whats happening to their country.


----------



## Taxsaver

ddkay said:


> depressing to see what our governments can do. I'm surprised Americans aren't in Washington right now with pitchforks.


That time will come. I am confident I will see the Second American Revolution in my lifetime.

It's the "You are either with us, or against us" mentality. It's hard to speak out in such a context. You don't want to end up on a potential terrorist list.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Taxsaver said:


> It's the "You are either with us, or against us" mentality.


That attitude does _not_ represent the mentality of many ordinary Americans.
Be careful while typecasting such a varied society....such typecasting is always misguided.
I work with many Americans and can vouch for this.
I think that was mostly the George W. Bush and his camp's attitude.


----------



## Taxsaver

HaroldCrump said:


> That attitude does _not_ represent the mentality of many ordinary Americans.
> Be careful while typecasting such a varied society....such typecasting is always misguided.
> I work with many Americans and can vouch for this.
> I think that was mostly the George W. Bush and his camp's attitude.


Yeah, I was refering to George W. Bush. His strategy did work, did not it? With Obama, it's the race card that they've played a lot. One of the cheerleaders of this strategy is Chris Matthews of CNBC. All right. I'm going to stop here. I don't want to go too political on this board.


----------



## humble_pie

i'm deeply intrigued by barrick's big additional step into copper via the equinox offer. It seems to be a positive bet on china growth.

crosses my mind that the initiative is to replace the lost copper potential when barrick & antofagasto of chile recently abandoned their giant joint copper prospect at reko diq in western pakistan, which in fact was situated in taliban stronghold in baluchistan, near wiziristan border. (i had always wondered how the 2 western companies managed to work their reko diq prospect with the US drones flying & bombing overhead) (osama is hidden not too far away) (but the fact is that the himalayas & their foothills are one of the world's last, best, almost untouched mining prospects, albeit fortressed in by war & politics for the time being.)

back to barrick, if CEO regent is right on his china call, equinox is a good addition to diversification of world's premier gold miner. It also keeps prime copper resources in canadian hands, by taking equinox out of china minmetals bidding range.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> i had always wondered how the 2 western companies managed to work their reko diq prospect with the US drones flying & bombing overhead) (osama is hidden not too far away)


I wondered too. 

Interesting & unexpected of Barrick to have entered the picture at this time after all the failed attempts by first Lundin to buy Equinox; then by Inmet to buy Lundin and finally by Equinox breaking Inmet/Lundin initial deal by getting in the middle with their own hostile bid, but only to have gotten rejected by Lundin, lol. 

Anyway, I thought it was smart & strategic of Barrick to acquire Equinox, though I wish it had gone for Lundin as I have LUN shares, but it seems it will go to the Jinchuan Group; the Chinese are attracted to LUN's stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper in the Republic of Congo [see humble, you're not the only one with great spelling]. 

The Chinese don't give up easily; they failed with Equinox, but they immediately had plan B with Lundin Mining. As they say, copper is 'red gold' for them. 

The resources needed to fuel their industrialization is simply astonishing!


----------



## Taxsaver

Just amazing what silver has been doing in the last few hours since the markets have re-opened. Not for the faint of heart! 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

At one point, -12% in 11 minutes.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110501-702509.html


----------



## Taxsaver

Thanks for the link. It's the second Sunday in a row where there are such wild movements. This one is bigger than last Sunday, though. It looks like people are scared of the $50 level and take their profits when close to it. That's just one example of the rounded numbers phenomenon.


----------



## Taxsaver

It went back up by $3 in the last hour or so. I have 70 ounces of silver, so every time it goes down by $1, I lose $70.


----------



## gibor365

imho PPLT and PALL should do better than GLD or SLV until end of the year, especially when Japanese automakers will completely recover.... opposite to GLD, both PPLT and PALL have heavy use especially in car industry...


----------



## Argonaut

gibor said:


> imho PPLT and PALL should do better than GLD or SLV until end of the year, especially when Japanese automakers will completely recover.... opposite to GLD, both PPLT and PALL have heavy use especially in car industry...


This is what I thought with platinum (not palladium though, that was overvalued). But seasonally the time to sell platinum is May, so it may have missed its opportunity. We'll see.


----------



## Taxsaver

gibor said:


> imho PPLT and PALL should do better than GLD or SLV until end of the year, especially when Japanese automakers will completely recover.... opposite to GLD, both PPLT and PALL have heavy use especially in car industry...


I hope the best to you, Gibor! I'm not in love in my investments. I don't care what I buy. I buy only what will increase in value, so I might get on the PPLT and PALL eventually.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> This is what I thought with platinum (not palladium though, that was overvalued). But seasonally the time to sell platinum is May, so it may have missed its opportunity. We'll see.


I don't think that PALL was overvalued (compare to glod and silver), I think PPLT was undervalued... I know that seasonally the time to sell platinum is May, but this year it may be different because of Japan earthquake


----------



## Taxsaver

I think silver will have hard time to go back to the $48. That crash has and will create fear among investor.


----------



## ddkay

Hopefully this is the beginning of a short term downtrend. The silver market was unbelievably bullish, too many talking heads on TV were promoting it. Maybe not mania but pretty close to it. I'd like to see silver below $30/oz and gold below $1400/oz so I can add a little more physical.


----------



## Taxsaver

I could have sold in the good prices last week, after the Federal Reserve press conference, but I did not. I think I'm going to take my profits tomorrow, if any.  Oh well, it was a very enriching experience.


----------



## Argonaut

Gold is holding despite silver's drop. The ratio is righting itself again, once we hit 50:1 all will be right in the world. Gold is the premier metal, but you can get more of it by trading silver. Sell gold, buy silver at 70:1. Sell silver, buy gold at 35:1. In essence you have doubled your amount of gold.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> Gold is holding despite silver's drop. The ratio is righting itself again, once we hit 50:1 all will be right in the world. Gold is the premier metal, but you can get more of it by trading silver. Sell gold, buy silver at 70:1. Sell silver, buy gold at 35:1. In essence you have doubled your amount of gold.


And what are your ratio for PALL vs PPLT?


----------



## ArmchairHero

Toronto.gal said:


> At one point, -12% in 11 minutes.
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110501-702509.html


talk about timing, with the Osama news and all... pretty blatant/obvious manipulation going on. but hey, it's great to be able to buy more silver at lower prices.

JPM & Fed & co. can keep this BS going all they want but eventually it'll just blow up in their face.


----------



## Argonaut

gibor said:


> And what are your ratio for PALL vs PPLT?


I don't think you can make a ratio for these. They are still relatively "new" metals, by our cultural standards. It wasn't long ago during the gold rush that panners were throwing platinum back in the river. And before that the Spaniards called it "little silver" and thought it an unwanted byproduct of their mining.

Palladium was actually worth more than platinum for a while last decade due to some events in Russia. Could you imagine silver being worth more than gold? I think the best way to play platinum and palladium is just to go with the gut. When prices are high like now, platinum is a safer bet. But after a metals crash palladium will have more upside.

I think about precious metals a lot.. but in the end I generally go with gold. Great investment at any price.


----------



## fatcat

i guess we are going to have throw a party for _$1600 gold by 2011_ ... i have it at $1568.00


----------



## andrewf

It's about time to trim my position in gold for the third time this year. Crazy.


----------



## webber22

There were some stories going around about Israel building up it's warplanes in Iraq, ready to strike at Iran. Can you imagine the price of gold if that war broke out ?

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/177902.html


----------



## I'm Howard

Not IF, but WHEN.


----------



## the-royal-mail

"Gold, which reached a record $1,577.57 an ounce on May 2, may surge a further 30 percent by January as investors seek to protect themselves from “economic uncertainty,” according to Deutsche Bank AG."

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/10/gold-could-hit-2000-deutsche-bank/


----------



## the-royal-mail

Someone likened a gold investment akin to riding a wild bull. Good analogy. My fund is down now, not much I can do, I'm not near the stage of needing the money so I may as well just leave it for now. Will continue to monitor.


----------



## v_tofu

is gold the next world reserve currency?


----------



## ddkay

No it'll likely be another fiat. China is sure pushing for CNY. Came across this depressing poll on my Facebook this morning










Col. Gadhafi. tried to have oil exports from Libya priced in gold and create an African currency backed by gold. Things aren't working out too well for him.


----------



## KaeJS

zylon,

I watched the whole episode.

Quite an interesting show.
No way in hell I would take $95k in coins for a 1932 lincoln that works.


----------



## ddkay

Gold going under $1500 again


----------



## Argonaut

If gold drops below $1450 in the short term, I'll consider going double-leveraged in on paper gold.. using margin money to buy the leveraged ETF. If you look at a chart the trend upwards since it was $700 is just so powerful, with no fundamental reason for stopping. Once it hits $1600, and it will, I'll sell the leveraged paper stuff for real coins.


----------



## KaeJS

That is very interesting, zylon.

Thank you for posting that. Greatly appreciated.

Kudos.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Yeah, this week seems to be a really good week. Gold is up to $1531 now. Whoever said that owning gold was like riding a wild bull was right. Up and down etc.

Is the whole market up this week or am I just lucky? The rest of my stuff (energy, CDN&US indexes) seems to be doing ok this week also.


----------



## HaroldCrump

the-royal-mail said:


> Yeah, this week seems to be a really good week. Gold is up to $1531 now. Whoever said that owning gold was like riding a wild bull was right. Up and down etc.
> 
> Is the whole market up this week or am I just lucky?


There seems to be a nice up-swing in many gold miners underway this afternoon.
You may want to check your account online tomorrow...hopefully you'll see a nice little gain.


----------



## ddkay

KaeJS might finally be able to exit that ABX trade


----------



## CB1021

Can you explain how GDX and XGD are playing catch-up??

Are they suppose to mirror gold spot? Don't operation based assets have different fundamentals than gold spot which is a hedge against currency?


----------



## MoreMiles

zylon said:


> It has long been accepted that gold miners (GDX) will provide roughly 3 times leverage to gold bullion. That is, when gold goes up 10%, miners will go up 30%. And similarly, if gold drops 10%, the miners will drop 30%.
> 
> In 2011 this has not been the case. For reasons which* I believe have more to do with trader sentiment than with fundamentals, the miners have been underpeforming gold by quite a wide margin as gold has been going up.* In order to get back to the 3:1 ratio, miners will have to attract a lot more investors into the sector. It is evident that such has been the case since mid June. Whether or not the trend will continue, is the question.
> 
> http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff397/zylon5/GDXvsGLD2011-0707.jpg


It's from hedge funds. Those funds are for wealthy people with a preservation of capital in mind. So they long gold bullion and short gold miners as hedge. It is not fair to the miners... but what can you do?

There might be a short squeeze coming.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1579.50


----------



## ddkay

Live video: Bernanke testifies before Congress


----------



## Mike59

MoreMiles said:


> It's from hedge funds. Those funds are for wealthy people with a preservation of capital in mind. So they long gold bullion and short gold miners as hedge. It is not fair to the miners... but what can you do?
> 
> There might be a short squeeze coming.


These big boys can throw millions in and out of an ETF, which has dramatically changed the landscape, and the relationship between gold bullion and miners. 

The theory about miners having a 3x dynamic relationship to gold bullion may be old news because of bullion ETFs. There are too many smart investors out there to leave a truly good deal sitting on the table, why aren't people snapping up miners? Something is fishy, and I have a feeling miners are priced where they are for good reason. 

I watch the GOLD:GDX ratio and note the 50 and 200 day moving averages are fairly close, looks like a sideways trend. Prior miner bull runs were characterized by a much wider gap between these averages (as in 2008-09). 

I'd place my bets on bullion being a the money maker in the next few quarters. But for me, it seems like a good time to sit on the sidelines with a bucket of cash


----------



## Argonaut

ddkay said:


> Live video: Bernanke testifies before Congress


"The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support,"

Gold to the moon?


----------



## andrewf

I still have my gold position. I'll need to trim it at the end of the month if prices stay where they are.


----------



## fatcat

i bought some gold and split 2/3 bullion and 1/3 miners (and silver wheaton which seems to cover the silver space fairly nicely on its own)...


----------



## Argonaut

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NJnL10vZ1Y#t=4m27s


----------



## the-royal-mail

User "$1600 Gold By 2011", where art though?


----------



## el oro

Stampede bound! And not buying gold these days, that's for sure


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1591.94


----------



## fatcat

it's always difficult to understand gold because half the people write about it as an investment or inflation hedge and the other half write about as if it were a religion ...


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1601.02. That is quite an amazing rally when you look back at some of the posted prices over the relatively short lifespan of this thread.


----------



## v_tofu

the-royal-mail said:


> $1601.02. That is quite an amazing rally when you look back at some of the posted prices over the relatively short lifespan of this thread.


So is gold going up, or is the dollar going down? Think about it


----------



## andrewf

A little of column A, a little of column B. Gold is going up (though less impressively) in CAD and Euro terms, for instance.


----------



## fatcat

great article at the globe today on gold: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...ld-advertising-tops-inflation/article2103933/

the take-away is that gold is driven largely by expectations and not so much as an inflation hedge

tells me that the way to invest in gold is to keep on an eye on what is being said about gold and how it is being marketed

it explains the fervor of gold bugs as well .. they are fueling the rise with predictions of the rise

it also should give some caution to those of us that have gold .. could go turtle at any time


----------



## Belguy

I just feel more comfortable investing in a broader-based precious metals fund (in my case, the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund) which I have held for some time now and just rebalance in or out of it periodically to maintain my target asset allocation.


----------



## webber22

Didn't the user '1600 gold by 2011' say he was going to bail out when it hit 1600 ?


----------



## fatcat

does anyone know of a fund that holds a mix of bullion and equities in all or most of the major metals (gold,silver,platinum) ?

i know of funds that hold all three metals like: brompton pbu.un and you can get xma which has silver and gold and other metal equities 

but i have never heard of a fund that holds all the metals in bullion as well as equities ?


----------



## el oro

@webber: I don't think I said that. I did shave my position and rolled it into oil stocks on Monday due to gold strength/oil weakness but I don't think this year is the end of this gold bull. 

Fatcat I don't think that exists.


----------



## Sherlock

Isn't your username gonna seem kinda dumb in 2012? I mean people will be like "why is this dude's username a reference to last year?". You really should have thought that ahead.


----------



## ddkay

He can request the forum admins (cmfadmin, FrugalTrader) to change his username Sherlock


----------



## fatcat

> Fatcat I don't think that exists.


 right, 1600, i will have to make my own i guess ..


> Isn't your username gonna seem kinda dumb in 2012? I mean people will be like "why is this dude's username a reference to last year?". You really should have thought that ahead.


that's easy, he just changes his user to: $16,000 Gold by 2015 formerly $1600 Gold by 2011 ... it has nice ring to it


----------



## fatcat

gold at 1615 ...

interesting to see how it will break one way or the other if a deal gets done ...


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1643.20 us


----------



## Abha

I have mixed emotions about this. 

My parents portfolio is through the roof today as they demand an insane concentration in gold and silver and my equities portfolios are all severely in the red.

In any case, the miners should rally hard based on these prices.


----------



## Belguy

Another great day for gold bugs!!

Another lousy day for the other investors!!


----------



## Betzy

Man what a day for Gold!!
I bought some G in start of day, what other equities or etf's follow gold closely?


----------



## Belguy

GLD!!!

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gld


----------



## Abha

If you believe in the miners then you can do no better than *NUGT*

WARNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a 2x play so you can lose a lot of money if you are reckless


----------



## Mike59

Would you believe me if I told you gold is trading at $1660 right now on the overnight Globex?? One day gain of $40/oz so far  !!!


----------



## Argonaut

My $1686 price target is in danger of being humiliated. Never mind that the target was higher than anyone else. Shall I revise it higher? I'll say that we will probably see $2000 gold in 2012.


----------



## the-royal-mail

^ care to back that up with a user ID change? LOL!


----------



## Betzy

/\ yup put your money where your user id is...too funny


----------



## v_tofu

I'm changing mine to $3000 gold by 2015.

Euro collapsing, US$ collasping, zombie apocalypse, etc etc.


----------



## el oro

Those predictions are weak! Both only predicting a conservative ~15% annual return. "Probably see $2000 gold..." Where's the conviction!?  My name called for 30% annual return!


----------



## Cal

You were pretty much bang on in regards to Gold hitting $1600 for 2011.

But now you need to change your online name to make your prediciton for 2012....


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1680.96

So why was the RBC Precious Metals fund down yesterday? Is the CDN dollar working against me?


----------



## Four Pillars

Probably.

The Canuck buck lost about 1% which means about $17 off the price of gold from our perspective.

http://www.thestar.com/business/art...gainst-u-s-dollar-as-japan-moves-to-lower-yen


----------



## Argonaut

the-royal-mail said:


> $1680.96
> 
> So why was the RBC Precious Metals fund down yesterday? Is the CDN dollar working against me?


The fund looks to own nothing but stock. I wouldn't put a dime of my precious metals allocation into it. Probably the reason for most of its decline is that platinum and palladium are getting sent to the slaughterhouse, and the fund owns North American Palladium, etc.


----------



## andrewf

the-royal-mail said:


> $1680.96
> 
> So why was the RBC Precious Metals fund down yesterday? Is the CDN dollar working against me?


Equities are down. I'm getting whiffs of panic emanating from the market. Europe especially seems to be falling apart.

You can't expect a PM equity fund to track the underlying metal closely.


----------



## Four Pillars

Four Pillars said:


> Probably.
> 
> The Canuck buck lost about 1% which means about $17 off the price of gold from our perspective.
> 
> http://www.thestar.com/business/art...gainst-u-s-dollar-as-japan-moves-to-lower-yen


My mistake - I forgot that the fund contains stocks and isn't directly correlated to the price of gold.


----------



## liquidfinance

Where do we think Gold will go after the US downgrade?
Likely that we will continue to see it climb?


----------



## liquidfinance

Very strong opening.


----------



## Argonaut

Passed my price target of $1686. Looking at $1700 within the next 24 hours.


----------



## liquidfinance

Well that took a lot less than the 24 hours. Gold at 1700 according to Kitco.


----------



## KaeJS

Wow.

I can't believe from the first time gold hit $1600 on July 18 to the first time it hit $1700 today, was a span of only 3 weeks.

Totally insane.


----------



## Abha

when does it hit $2000?

someone start a new contest


----------



## clovis8

This is the bubbliest bubble of all time. I wish I had a chunk of change to bet against gold long term. Can anyone say dutch tulips.


----------



## KaeJS

Abha said:


> when does it hit $2000?
> 
> someone start a new contest


Haha. At the rate we're going... 9 weeks from now!! 

October 17, anyone?


----------



## KaeJS

clovis8 said:


> This is the bubbliest bubble of all time. I wish I had a chunk of change to bet against gold long term. Can anyone say dutch tulips.


Buy the bubble!


----------



## KaeJS

Actually, it's kind of odd. In the last 10 years, gold has been unbeatable. However, in the 20 years preceeding those 10 "golden years" (haha! ), gold was a loser's game.

There was a peak in 1980, and ever since then gold sucked until 2000...

Does anyone know why this is?

36 Year Gold Price Chart


----------



## Argonaut

Kae: Gold was truly a bubble in 1980. Speculators bid it up and crashed it. During subsequent years, interest rates were very high, so the opportunity cost of owning gold as an investment did not make much sense. Why not make 20% in a savings account? Seems absurd today, but it was true then. Stocks were hot in the 90's as well. Add the fact that central banks were dumping gold on the market, most notoriously Great Britain. What a horrible, horrible decision that was.

Gold has outperformed over the last 10 years because of crisis after crisis, low interest rates, and the ever growing money supply and sovereign debt. This problem is NOT going away soon, and gold is NOT in a bubble. Start thinking about selling at the psychological barrier of $2000. Paper gold, that is. But keep physical gold forever and ever.


----------



## el oro

Gold is an obvious bet these days. It's one place people are getting it right.

I agree with one of Armstrongs latest articles. It states that the world is selling off equities and going into mainly bonds and cash. This does not make sense since in the current crisis, it is the governments that are at risk and not corporations. It may take many years but eventually the world will wake up and equities will take off (1932 to 1937 the DOW more than doubled along with unemployment).

The amount of wealth in the world held in government/public assets (cash/bonds) is vast in comparison to private assets (stocks/commodities). A shift from public to private assets could theoretically send world stock indices multiples higher.

Simple summary: Buy the dips. That's my current opinion on the big picture, anyway. Counterarguments encouraged!


----------



## v_tofu

clovis8 said:


> This is the bubbliest bubble of all time. I wish I had a chunk of change to bet against gold long term. Can anyone say dutch tulips.


mmm bubblelicious


----------



## sensfan15

1800 by 2012?


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1701.89.


----------



## andrewf

clovis8 said:


> This is the bubbliest bubble of all time. I wish I had a chunk of change to bet against gold long term. Can anyone say dutch tulips.


That's a tough bet to make. Fighting trends is hard and risky. I have no doubt at all gold will in the future be lower than it is today, but that might be ten years from now.


----------



## v_tofu

andrewf said:


> That's a tough bet to make. Fighting trends is hard and risky. I have no doubt at all gold will in the future be lower than it is today, but that might be ten years from now.


I agree it will be lower as well. Somewhere at around $500 NWO dollars an oz.


----------



## el oro

Gold possibly on the verge of a parabolic move. I'll consider unloading if it gets to 2200-2400 range later this year or early next.


----------



## KaeJS

^ Just hit $1753


----------



## Argonaut

Kae, you should send some of your profits my way.. gold adviser fees or somesuch. 

$100 move in 24 hours.. I'm getting a little concerned that the speculators will drive it up and crash it down, hurting true gold lovers. It needs to be in the steady rise of the last 10 years.


----------



## KaeJS

It definitely was a good call. You know what you're talking about. Thank you.

Maybe I will take the proceeds and fly to B.C. and buy us some beers.

I would probably make enough money during my plane trip to pay for the ticket


----------



## KaeJS

Argonaut said:


> Kae, you should send some of your profits my way.. gold adviser fees or somesuch.
> 
> $100 move in 24 hours.. I'm getting a little concerned that the speculators will drive it up and crash it down, hurting true gold lovers. It needs to be in the steady rise of the last 10 years.


Well, once the equities turn around and start soaring, I'm sure gold will have quite a blip downward.


----------



## liquidfinance

So happy I opened a gold position on Friday. This is pretty much the only thing easing some of my pain. Other than shorting CEMEX stock from a couple of weeks back.


----------



## Argonaut

KaeJS said:


> Well, once the equities turn around and start soaring, I'm sure gold will have quite a blip downward.


The only reason I see equities rising in the short term is if QE3 is announced. And only then if the market likes QE3. The market just completely destroyed the gains of QE2 in one week flat so it's not a sure thing. However, if QE3 is announced it will benefit gold even more than equities. At this point, gold is pretty much the only sure bet, the king of investments. So long as it doesn't get destroyed by the speculators.


----------



## dogcom

Equities will turn around very soon and gold will drop I am sure. The difference is you buy the gold on the dip and sell the equities while you can or you take advantage of a short term equity trade.


----------



## liquidfinance

I just dont know if I dare increase my gold exposure at the current price. Although as you say everything seems to be in it's favour at the minute.


----------



## ddkay

Who are the 'speculators'?


----------



## dogcom

The pain must persist and drive the likes of kaejs out and gold will be bought when it seems like then only game in town only to fall in spectacular fashion.


----------



## liquidfinance

dogcom said:


> The pain must persist and drive the likes of kaejs out and gold will be bought when it seems like then only game in town only to fall in spectacular fashion.


But why would it fall given the current climate?


----------



## el oro

They're the futures traders who don't produce or consume the actual commodities. The ones betting on price directions, providing liquidity to the exchanges.


----------



## v_tofu

$1769!

wow, i wonder if I should stay up for the london markets! 

exciting time for us gold bugs. Scary time for those in paper.


So anyone think we're gonna get another QE?

How does that affect Canada? Are we somewhat resistant to the turmoil of our southern neighbors?


----------



## ddkay

Gold prices, especially intraday were ridiculously volatile in 2008

12/15/2007 $807.40
12/20/2007 $803.20 (Bear Stearns announces first loss in its eight-decade history)
12/21/2007 $815.40
12/24/2007 $843.60
01/02/2008 $860.00
03/18/2008 $1004.30 (Bear Stearns collapse)
03/19/2008 $945.30
03/20/2008 $920.00
03/24/2008 $918.70
03/25/2008 $935.00
-
08/11/2008 $824.30
09/11/2008 $742.10
09/15/2008 $783.80 (Lehman collapse)
09/16/2008 $777.10
09/17/2008 $847.10
09/18/2008 $893.20
09/19/2008 $861.00
10/08/2008 $906.50
10/23/2008 $714.70
10/24/2008 $730.30
11/13/2008 $705.00
12/11/2008 $826.60


----------



## dogcom

Sorry liquidfinance I was talking about the longer term. But gold still needs to fall here as it is ahead of itself and that is the only reason.


----------



## liquidfinance

Ahh yes. I see your point in the longer term. But when will any form of normality return to the markets. Panic seems to breed more panic. Just look to the asian markets right now.


----------



## webber22

The CME Group raised margins on U.S. gold futures by 22.2 percent, driving spot gold down to $1,790.29 an ounce by 0337 GMT, off 0.2 percent from the previous close.


----------



## Argonaut

Good news on the raised margins. Worked out well for me because I sold my GLD option yesterday. But a pullback is healthy, and overleveraged parabolic moves are not.


----------



## KaeJS

Kind of sucks the downturn in Gold cost me $84 today, but I knew it was coming.

Looks like we're in for another drop tomorrow. May sell my CGL and wait until the Gold price settles if equities are going to continue to rise.

... or may just leave it as a hedge, anyway. Not sure yet.


----------



## Argonaut

You should be happy about the pullback, and keep holding the CGL. It could test $1700 before it continues its rise. At which point I will be buying another option. I've made a few crap trades in my time, but my timing on gold has been perfect. My latest:

Bought GLD call @ 7.25
Sold GLD call @ 17.50
Contract high @ 17.70
Current price @ 8.60


----------



## fatcat

> The CME Group raised margins on U.S. gold futures by 22.2 percent, driving spot gold down to $1,790.29 an ounce by 0337 GMT, off 0.2 percent from the previous close.


 that may speak about the stength of gold since it doesn't appear to be taking the hit that silver did when margns were raised on it .... as long as fear and panic are in the game gold will be really volatile ... i am not sure what it will take to get the market to think we've actually passed through this thing and equities are safe to pile into ? .... until then i think gold is a strong asset to have, if you still own good equities, they should rise to balance gold's fall and vice versa


----------



## Belguy

I heard someone from Sprott on BNN today say that, in his opinion, gold had a heck of a lot of upside yet from here. They are specialists in the precious metals fund management area and so should have a better idea than most.


----------



## fatcat

> I heard someone from Sprott on BNN today say that, in his opinion, gold had a heck of a lot of upside yet from here. They are specialists in the precious metals fund management area and so should have a better idea than most.


and they are legendary metals bulls with metals funds so i would take their comments with a grain of salt ..

having said that i think that if we continue to see this uncertainty, fear and volatility, gold will go up (and i think we have a lot more fear, uncertainty and volatility ahead)

all it will take is a solid whiff of stability and a sense of turning the corner and gold could come crashing down, only to rebuild again on long term fundamentals of supply and demand

i think it is here to stay ... i don't think it will ever go below say 1200 again


----------



## dogcom

As much as you don't care for gold equities Argonaut I was hearing on CNBC from an analyst who said that is where you should go now instead of pure gold. You have to think that gold confirmed in the ground has to worth something.


----------



## Argonaut

Funny you say that, dogcom. I had bought CGL and Argonaut Gold on the exact same day this year. As of today they are both up exactly 22.44%. AR represents 20% of my gold allocation and I'm comfortable with that. I prefer a focused portfolio and would add to that position instead of buying another miner. The large caps always seem to bungle up their quarters and give excuses on conference calls.

Unfortunately I do not have a very high savings rate to add to my investments right now. Monthly gain is about $200-$400 living frugally, when last year it was $2500 (the trade-off is infinite upside). Portfolio gains have had to be internal with options trading, something that can't be relied on.


----------



## Homerhomer

Ebay setting up the new bullion section may be a great sign it's time to trimm long gold positions.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1778.43


----------



## fatcat

> Ebay setting up the new bullion section may be a great sign it's time to trimm long gold positions.


i would read that the opposite way ... next leg up ... i understand that the gold jewelry buyers are closing shop in some cases because there isn't any gold to buy ... people are starting to hold out for higher prices


----------



## martinv

Argonaut said:


> Funny you say that, dogcom. I had bought CGL and Argonaut Gold on the exact same day this year. As of today they are both up exactly 22.44%.


The San Antonio property is only a few kms from where we spend our winters.
last winter there were a number or environmental protest/rallies, request for environmental reviews/ political indecision etc. concerning mining in this area.
In other words, it was in the local news a lot. I have no idea of any outcomes but thought it might be interesting for you and perhaps worth checking into.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1818.36


----------



## Argonaut

Gold is spiking in overnight trading. $1851 right now. I can't trade again until Wednesday so I have to get out of my call option tomorrow. Too big of a risk of a decline. If it goes parabolic I still have my gold allocation of course. But I hope it doesn't.


----------



## v_tofu

Looks like fiat currency is starting to go towards its real value.

Hope y'all stocked up on dry foods and shotty's!


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> Too big of a risk of a decline. If it goes parabolic I still have my gold allocation of course. But I hope it doesn't.


Why do you think that there is "Too big of a risk of a decline"?

Today read article in Taipan:

_There has been a lot of talk recently that gold is overbought. That may be true, and it's one reason Macro Trader recently took partial profits on our long gold and gold stock positions. 
It's also helpful to remember, though, that oscillators -- measures of overbought and oversold conditions -- can be worse than useless in times of mania and crisis. With strong and persistent pressures, that which looks "overbought" just keeps getting more and more overbought. That which looks "oversold" just keeps getting more and more oversold. ....
On Aug. 8, gold gapped higher after a strong trend move on heavy volume (as shown in the GLD chart above). 
At first, technicians were inclined to call the move an "exhaustion gap," suggesting the trend was close to done. But now it is being reconsidered as a "measuring gap" -- which would suggest we are only halfway through. 
At some point gold will correct (though perhaps not as swiftly and deeply as those on the sidelines would like). The question, though, is what is the long-term trend, and how to take advantage of it?
Stretching out the time horizon a little, the next $100 move in gold is not as important as the next $1,000 move. All things being equal, gold $3,000 is likely. (The multinational bank Standard Chartered has made a strong argument for gold $5,000, which makes $3K look conservative.)

_


----------



## Argonaut

I'm talking about options, in which I want to maximize my return with as much money possible in the short term. The timeframe is days, in which big moves up are often followed by pullbacks. As far as my regular unleveraged gold positions, they are a key part of the portfolio and I would not sell them.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut, I know you are bullish on Gold as commodity, what do you think about gold miners? I hold G and was watching lately stock of your name  (AR.T) .... 

btw, today they outperfomed metal....


----------



## Argonaut

I have Argonaut Gold and that's the only one I'm interested in. It has outperformed the metal and all of my other stocks. Somebody swooped in and grabbed 4.5 million shares today, representing 8% of the company. As far as I know today was the biggest day of volume it has ever had.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> I have Argonaut Gold and that's the only one I'm interested in. It has outperformed the metal and all of my other stocks. Somebody swooped in and grabbed 4.5 million shares today, representing 8% of the company. As far as I know today was the biggest day of volume it has ever had.


...and it jump 4%  again I was late...whole week wanted to buy it , but I'm sooooooo scary now with recent losses 

B. Campbell "Still his favourite gold. Is at a discount to its breakup value of $7.50. If gold goes higher, his target will have to go higher. Is a growth company, which is good if gold goes down." - can you explain why it's goood for AR if Gold goes down?


----------



## gibor365

gibor said:


> ...and it jump 4%  again I was late...whole week wanted to buy it , but I'm sooooooo scary now with recent losses
> 
> B. Campbell "Still his favourite gold. Is at a discount to its breakup value of $7.50. If gold goes higher, his target will have to go higher. Is a growth company, which is good if gold goes down." - can you explain why it's goood for AR if Gold goes down?


So, can anyone explain Campbell's quote? i don't get it....

Also, do you think now is a good time to buy gold miners like G, ABX, AR? I think miners should catch up for surging of the gold price.....or not?


----------



## Betzy

My 2 pennies.
Volatile markets for sure, I bought G at 46.85 Aug 2nd sold Monday for 53.55! Now it's back down to just above 50.00.
These swings are really silly, right now my mind set is to trade rather than to invest.
I think we have another couple of months of swings before it settles...


----------



## Argonaut

Wow, what an aggressive selloff in gold! This has got to be the biggest drop in my entire life. Hopefully this will shake off the speculators.


----------



## Homerhomer

Argonaut said:


> Wow, what an aggressive selloff in gold! This has got to be the biggest drop in my entire life. Hopefully this will shake off the speculators.


If one is of a bearish mindset, or that Feds can only do some kind of money printing this correction should present some buying opportunities if it continues for few more days.


----------



## andrewf

Returning to all-time highs of two weeks ago hardly seems like a hard sell-off to me.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> Wow, what an aggressive selloff in gold! This has got to be the biggest drop in my entire life. Hopefully this will shake off the speculators.


Yeah, it's only up like 15% now for the year....the horror


----------



## fatcat

> Wow, what an aggressive selloff in gold! This has got to be the biggest drop in my entire life. *Hopefully this will shake off the speculators.*


 that gave me a good laugh argo


----------



## Argonaut

I appreciate the downplay, but $100 in one day is pretty manic, and probably never happened before on a nominal basis. This is exactly what I didn't want to happen to the gold market, absurd rises and falls. The good news is that if gold overcorrects to pre-crisis levels it represents a great buying opportunity.

Something smells fishy with Jackson Hole coming up, though. Possibly some insiders shaking off the retail investors before a huge move on Friday.


----------



## Abha

Argonaut said:


> I appreciate the downplay, but $100 in one day is pretty manic, and probably never happened before on a nominal basis. This is exactly what I didn't want to happen to the gold market, absurd rises and falls. The good news is that if gold overcorrects to pre-crisis levels it represents a great buying opportunity.
> 
> Something smells fishy with Jackson Hole coming up, though. Possibly some insiders shaking off the retail investors before a huge move on Friday.


Gold could also see a pretty big move downwards dependent on what Bernanke says.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Argonaut said:


> Something smells fishy with Jackson Hole coming up, though.


I don't understand how any of the three possible outcomes from Jackson Hole can be bad for gold.
First, new wave of QE is announced - well, it's clear that gold should go apoplectic in this case. USD will be decimated further and gold is the only hedge against that (given the pitiable state of EUR).
Second, Berbank admits that the US is screwed, there is no way out, and tells everyone to drown their woes in alcohol. In this case as well gold should be the last haven of safety.
Third, he hemms-and-haws, delivers a 2 hr. speech but says nothing and means nothing. This case should be neutral as well.

So I don't see this as a fundamental correction in gold.
Fundamental correction can be caused only by a substantial improvement in socio-economic situation around the world, GDP growth prospects, fiat currency strength, etc.

So hopefully this is simply a temporary correction caused by an overbought situation and speculation.
It could fall back to the $1,600 level during this correction, but I don't see it going below $1,000 as some have been predicting.


----------



## gibor365

HaroldCrump said:


> It could fall back to the $1,600 level during this correction, but I don't see it going below $1,000 as some have been predicting.


That what I was thinking....to buy CGL or solid gold miner (or both) if Gold dropping to 1600....

BTW, what is major support for GLD?


----------



## Homerhomer

HaroldCrump said:


> Second, Berbank admits that the US is screwed, there is no way out, and tells everyone to drown their woes in *alcohol* .


Which alcohol stocks would you recommend 

On a more serious note I agree completely with your statements and only see the correction (if it continues for few more days) as buying opportunity.


----------



## gibor365

homerhomer said:


> which alcohol stocks would you recommend


liq


----------



## HaroldCrump

You know what the whole bugger is...it's the fundamental problem of capitalism...allocation of surplus value.
Capitalism generates an ever increasing amount of surplus value, and it's getting larger and larger now with global trade, better machines, better technology, cheaper labor, etc.
Therefore, it must always look for bigger and bigger avenues of investment that can beat the current rate of return i.e. generate surplus value at an ever increasing rate.
And that is becoming increasingly difficult.
So we are seeing these bubbles like dotcom, real estate, etc.
And thus we are seeing this rush towards gold as well - it's the same old problem of allocation of surplus value.

Ironically, Marx talked about it over 150 years ago.
A more modern and scientific explanation is in _Monopoly Capital_ by Harvard economist duo of Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy.


----------



## Belguy

I have been thinking that equities could not really rebound until gold corrected but I admit to being no expert on such matters.


----------



## Argonaut

HaroldCrump said:


> I don't understand how any of the three possible outcomes from Jackson Hole can be bad for gold.


I agree that gold comes out a winner in any case, whether the price initially reflects so or not. I have been saying so all along. Unfortunately I am stuck with an option that I could not sell on Monday or Tuesday because I was away.



Homerhomer said:


> Which alcohol stocks would you recommend


ABV

EDIT: It appears the reason for the slaughter today was the increased margins. Obviously the news was leaked and insiders are sumbitches. Will gold shrug it off or correct large like silver did?


----------



## davext

I have GLD, CEF, and ZJG and various precious metals funds. I'd gladly see gold prices go down if it means the rest of my equity portfolio goes up! 

I was disappointed to see GLD drop by so much in a single day, while at the same time the DOW rallied only 140 points. 

Gold is just a hedge for me but I definitely believe that it will rally higher in the next couple of months due to Europe issues and US debt issues. The Europeans are on vacation, they are a lazy bunch and once they come back to work and start going back and forth, and sitting on the fence, and all that, the markets aren't gonna like what they'll see


----------



## Belguy

Another lost decade for the stock indexes??


----------



## dogcom

Davext when gold corrects it does so to the extreme, so to see GLD drop so much is no surprise. The way gold has gone up so fast so soon, a correction three times as fast would be the norm. 

Stocks are the place to be for now before they get hammered again in the fall. I could be wrong but the stock market will get destroyed unless another QE comes in to lift the boats again.


----------



## KaeJS

Gold is pissing me right off.

I don't know what to do.

And everyone knows what happens when you don't have a plan - you _lose_ money.

Sell or Keep?

I think I'm leaning towards sell... but Friday is just 2 days away. BLAH.


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Gold is pissing me right off.
> 
> I don't know what to do.
> 
> And everyone knows what happens when you don't have a plan - you _lose_ money.
> 
> Sell or Keep?
> 
> I think I'm leaning towards sell... but Friday is just 2 days away. BLAH.


I also don't know  To buy or not to buy. This is the question  and "Friday is just 2 days away"


----------



## Argonaut

No real reason to sell gold for a loss. The $US has lost 98% of its value in gold since Nixon eliminated the gold standard. It's an important part of a portfolio and not something that should be invested in if you want to make a quick profit in paper dollars.

If QE3 is announced, gold will benefit. If it isn't, then stocks will get hit really bad, and gold will be a decent place to hide. During the scenario where no QE3 is announced, which I think is likely.. where does one invest? Bonds pay next to no interest. If gold falls hard with stocks, then the only short term winner will be cash. Are we entering an all-cash market?


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> No real reason to sell gold for a loss. The $US has lost 98% of its value in gold since Nixon eliminated the gold standard. It's an important part of a portfolio and not something that should be invested in if you want to make a quick profit in paper dollars.
> 
> If QE3 is announced, gold will benefit. If it isn't, then stocks will get hit really bad, and gold will be a decent place to hide. During the scenario where no QE3 is announced, which I think is likely.. where does one invest? Bonds pay next to no interest. If gold falls hard with stocks, then the only short term winner will be cash. Are we entering an all-cash market?


Just to remind you that during ressession 2008 GLD fell 33% in 3 months. 

So ,yes, in case of double dip ressession the only save place is CASH and maybe short-term bonds


----------



## andrewf

I'm not concerned. I've been taking profits as gold has risen.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Cash is always a safe bet. Cash in hand is mightier than the bush.


----------



## riamo

yeah i picked up gold a couple weeks ago an sold 1 week ago ...made some profit..but i sold when i realized i had no idea what i was doing...no real game plan...

i'm still an amateur at this so will stick to braod based etf couch potatoe for now until i am more knowldegeable..i have 30-35 year time horizon


----------



## fatcat

> No real reason to sell gold for a loss. The $US has lost 98% of its value in gold since Nixon eliminated the gold standard. It's an important part of a portfolio and not something that should be invested in if you want to make a quick profit in paper dollars.
> 
> If QE3 is announced, gold will benefit. If it isn't, then stocks will get hit really bad, and gold will be a decent place to hide. During the scenario where no QE3 is announced, which I think is likely.. where does one invest? Bonds pay next to no interest. If gold falls hard with stocks, then the only short term winner will be cash. Are we entering an all-cash market?


 this is the problem ... there isn't a single asset class that looks good .. there is no place to hide to yes, cash is the place .. presumably a holding in gold should temper the loss in cash holding to inflation .. i would say keep cash in short term investments like hisa's and short term gic's

as you know argo, the perrenial portfolio has this well covered: cash,bonds, gold, equities in equal portions

the goal at the moment is to not lose any capital ...

as far as traders go .. good luck
when cnbc.com starts running articles on why high frequency trading trading is killing the market, you know you have big problems
i don't know how you guys do it ... ?


----------



## KaeJS

Kept my position in gold, and glad I did. 

We'll see how it reacts tomorrow.


----------



## Lephturn

fatcat said:


> as far as traders go .. good luck
> when cnbc.com starts running articles on why high frequency trading trading is killing the market, you know you have big problems
> i don't know how you guys do it ... ?


LOL - CNBC always has some bad guy to point to. For most of the media, you can substitute "High Freq." with "commies" - same idea, somebody to blame.

I'm not sure what you mean - traders love, need even, volatility. This recent vol pop has been great, lots of opportunity in this market. Even if you are a long term buy-and-pray type, market corrections like this are an opportunity to let your dividend DRIP programs drive some great long term returns.


----------



## fatcat

well, when cnbc, which is a perma bull, begins to question the wisdom of the market, you have to wonder .. this is from the article :


> “Correlation between intraday returns of stocks has increased without apparently much reason, and this may be caused by HFT driven by econometric models disconnected from fundamentals,” the paper cites Bauwens as saying.


 and this is what i am referring to, it sort of implies you are at the mercy of a fast silicon chip to me, you can do all the research you want but the hft is determining the day ... is there another way to read it ?


----------



## Lephturn

fatcat said:


> well, when cnbc, which is a perma bull, begins to question the wisdom of the market, you have to wonder .. this is from the article : and this is what i am referring to, it sort of implies you are at the mercy of a fast silicon chip to me, you can do all the research you want but the hft is determining the day ... is there another way to read it ?


Yes - the way to read it is that they get paid to come up with some reason "why" when in reality they have no clue why the market does anything. The reality is that it doesn't matter why it goes up, or down, or is more or less volatile - it just is. 

CNBC is a perma bull right up until we have down days - then they quickly swap over to fear mongering and the blame game.

All of that said - is the high volume of HF trading a good thing for the markets? It is not that simple - there are pluses and minuses. There are things the HF algo traders should and in my opinion should not be allowed to do. They get the blame for the things the public doesn't like, and no credit for the positives they contribute. Don't get sucked into the debate, because it doesn't matter. Do pay attention enough to understand how the markets work, but wasting time figuring out who's to blame is a waste of time.

Personally I was hoping for a bigger pull back than we got, but I only care how the market works and how I can position to take advantage of it. I don't care if it's right or wrong, or who's to blame for the parts I don't like.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Headed back up: $1806.58.

Back in 1992, it cost $329 an ounce.

Food for thought.


----------



## Guigz

the-royal-mail said:


> Headed back up: $1806.58.
> 
> Back in 1992, it cost $329 an ounce.
> 
> Food for thought.


Is this figure inflation adjusted? If not, how much is it in 2011 dollars?


edit------------

If not inflation adjusted, it would have been worth 474$ in 2010 dollars according to BoC


----------



## webber22

Gold: $329 in 1992 to $1806 is a 448% increase

RBC stock: $6.19 in 1992 to $62 in 2011 is *over 900% *increase excluding dividends 

TD Bank: $8 in 1992 to $86 in 2011 is a 975% increase excluding dividends


----------



## Mockingbird

fatcat said:


> as far as traders go .. good luck
> when cnbc.com starts running articles on why high frequency trading trading is killing the market, you know you have big problems
> i don't know how you guys do it ... ?


I usually hear these comments from those traders/investors who cannot adapt to the changing market. As Lephturn stated, the recent volatility has been a great opportunity for the traders and investors alike - learn to take advantage of it. Worrying about HFT should be the last thing in anyone's mind (DIY investors).

My 2c.

MB


----------



## dogcom

The royal mail gold at $329 an ounce in 1992 food for thought. What the hell does that mean? How about Dow 1000 in the early 80's and 11,284 today food for thought.


----------



## the-royal-mail

Buy and hold on for the rough ride?


----------



## gibor365

Mockingbird said:


> the recent volatility has been a great opportunity for the traders and investors alike - learn to take advantage of it.
> 
> MB


No, it was great opportunity for gamblers


----------



## KaeJS

Trading is not gambling.

Trading is making an informed decision based upon facts, experience and analysis. (Ex. The purchase of a 3x Leveraged Crude Oil Bull ETF due to heating conflict in Middle East)

Gambling is a decision that is made when the outcome is completely arbitrary and one guess is as good as the next. (Ex. Heads or Tails)

Buying a Lottery ticket is gambling - you have no way of knowing who, or if, anyone will win.

Betting that the next car driving down your street will be Silver and not Green is more like Trading. Why? Because statistically speaking, Silver is the most common colour for automobiles. Therefore, your decision to choose Silver over Green is informed and is not so much gambling as it is making an educated decision.

Don't believe me? Check the link below:

http://www.roadandtrack.com/special-report/car-colors-they-re-more-than-skin-deep

_"According to DuPont’s annual “Color Popularity Report,” silver remains the most popular choice worldwide."_

So, I guess if you want to consider Trading as gambling, then you'd have to consider almost everything in life as a gamble. If you don't know the outcome, you don't know the outcome. And from that perspective, even buying and holding is a gamble. Y'know?


----------



## Argonaut

Anyway what does all of this have to do with gold?

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/gold/presidential-candidate-dr-ron-paul-loves-gold-and-gold-miners.html/

Ron Paul probably laughs at my 25% allocation and calls me an ultra gold bear.


----------



## fatcat

i thought about starting a new thread but don't want to dilute the gold discussion ... i would like people to weight in on their opinions as to long-term case for gold

as in what are the three best reasons why you consider gold to be a long-term hold ?

(not short-term please, i own gold for the short term and am clear on my reasons for doing so but am less convinced about the price stability over the long term ... say a 5 year period ... so why will gold still be going up in 2016 ?)

(morgan stanley for one, forecasts a lower price of gold 5 years out: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/MS Gold 3.jpg)


----------



## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Trading is not gambling.
> 
> Trading is making an informed decision based upon facts, experience and analysis.


Sorry. But black jack with cards counting is exactly the same.


----------



## fatcat

> I usually hear these comments from those traders/investors who cannot adapt to the changing market. As Lephturn stated, the recent volatility has been a great opportunity for the traders and investors alike - learn to take advantage of it. Worrying about HFT should be the last thing in anyone's mind (DIY investors).
> 
> My 2c.
> 
> MB


 this is closer to what i was trying to say, from CNBC:
*End of Stock-Picking: S&P Stocks in Lockstep With Index* http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310457

this was interesting on gold: Record Prices Spawn New Wave of China Gold Bugs http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310779


----------



## Lephturn

fatcat said:


> this is closer to what i was trying to say, from CNBC:
> *End of Stock-Picking: S&P Stocks in Lockstep With Index* http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310457
> 
> this was interesting on gold: Record Prices Spawn New Wave of China Gold Bugs http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310779


I find this quote interesting:

"Elevated correlation is generally considered a poor environment for long-only fundamental investors. In highly correlated sell-offs the market does not discriminate based on company fundamentals, reducing the value of stock picking," Kostin said.

Just one of the many problems with being a long-only buy and hope investor.


----------



## Miser

fatcat said:


> i thought about starting a new thread but don't want to dilute the gold discussion ... i would like people to weight in on their opinions as to long-term case for gold
> 
> as in what are the three best reasons why you consider gold to be a long-term hold ?
> 
> (not short-term please, i own gold for the short term and am clear on my reasons for doing so but am less convinced about the price stability over the long term ... say a 5 year period ... so why will gold still be going up in 2016 ?)
> 
> (morgan stanley for one, forecasts a lower price of gold 5 years out: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/MS Gold 3.jpg)



I am thinking long term fiat currency.....thus gold.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1830.39 this morning already. What's going on?


----------



## fatcat

argo, you have a real interest in the gold/silver ratio i believe, i thought this was interesting, from: http://www.cnbc.com/id/44373049



> Silver Set for 14-Fold Price Rise?
> 
> In addition, Gmuer said silver is set for an even greater upward run than gold, with the market due to correct a distortion in its pricing of silver in relation to gold.
> 
> *Gold and silver currently price at a ratio of around 45:1. However, Gmuer said declining silver output over the last 60 years—as a result of inventory depletion and mine closures—meant silver supplies currently outnumber gold by a ratio of less than 10:1, thus indicating a market correction is due.*
> 
> Once this occurs, Gmuer said silver prices would settle at 6.7 percent to 10 percent of gold prices. This implies that if gold reaches $6,200 per ounce, silver could peak at $620 per ounce.


i'm going to change my user name to $600 Silver by 2013 ...


----------



## Argonaut

50:1 is my ratio. Virtually all market conditions point towards precious metals rising, but the last month has been heavy so I am one to be cautious. There's a saying that goes, buy gold on the rise, buy silver on the dip. If precious metals have a sharp correction, I'd be apt to pick up some silver at 60:1.

$600 silver is a bit silly.


----------



## fatcat

> $600 silver is a bit silly.


 well, if the writer is correct and the silver supply merits a reconsideration of the ratio at 10 to 1 that puts silver at $190 ... still not a bad price ... i certainly want to buy more SLW if there is a nice dip

i remember that 50 to 1 is the longstanding ratio but that is based on a supply and demand ratio that is perhaps needing a reconsider based on current levels of available product

do you not agree ? ... if not, why ?


----------



## ddkay

I'm kind of stunned to see that Gold hit $1908 this morning, it's near the August high and the top end of its range like it was in March 2008, but hasn't necessarily hit it yet. Short term upside capped at $2000?


----------



## dogcom

No price is silly when you have fiat currencies ready to collapse under extreme debt around the world.

Once all the extreme debt is dealt with one way or the other then you will continue to see crazy stuff like even $3000 gold happening.


----------



## Argonaut

Gold dropping sharply in the late hours before I go to sleep. Feel better about selling my GLD call on Friday. I wish there was 24 hour markets on options, North America is generally less bullish on gold and it would bring more opportunities timing wise.


----------



## humble_pie

_"No price is silly when you have fiat currencies ready to collapse under extreme debt around the world.

" Once all the extreme debt is dealt with one way or the other then you will continue to see crazy stuff like even $3000 gold happening." _

brief, grim, & possibly accurate thumbnail forecast.


----------



## andrewf

$600 silver is much sillier than $3000 gold.


----------



## Abha

andrewf said:


> $600 silver is much sillier than $3000 gold.


I'd be happy with $100 silver. But the silver market is so manipulated it's almost always stuck in a range.


----------



## gibor365

I like XMA, if gold miners are up, usually XMA is up, as among top holdings ABX, G, K, YRI, ELD, SLW. On other hand if gold miners are down, XMA can be down much less because other top holdings are TCK.B. POT, AGU, FM...


----------



## Goldfinger

*Gold to 979.50 and silver to 19.79/21*

Gold to 979.50 and silver to 19.79-21 area in the next 3-5 months. Drawing playout could take 2006 pattern or 2008.

Silver dropped $49-33 in 11 trading days from April 25. This is a $80,000 drop...$16 x $5,000= $80,000. Ea $1 move in silver is $5,000.

If gold is to drop $80,000 that is $800 down so from 1880-800=1080 or 1923-800 is 1123.

The last low was $681 and was $40 shy from the monthly target of $640 in 2008 so $40 is missing from the till. 

So $1080-80 ( we double the $40) = $1,000 or 1123 -120 ( 40 x 3 years )= 1043...

I do know this is going to hit $1033 the last high. My low is 979.50.

The variance in the hi low in 2006 was 177 ( 732-555 ). Times 5 years gives us 885. 1923-885 = 1038-40 ( missing from the till ) = 998 minus 21 fib number = 977.

1923/2 = 961.50.

Finally, the 2009 was 1227 low was 1044= 183 x 2 years = 366 x 2.618 = 958.18 +21 fib....= 979.18.

So 961.50, 998/977, 979.18, 1000, 1043. Last high not hit was 1033. My low is 979.50.

Good luck


----------



## ddkay

Gold pummeled $129 in two days, stocks go the opposite direction.. anyone buying here or is it more attractive in the $1600s?


----------



## the-royal-mail

Down 57.81 in 24hrs.

Doesn't make sense though. If investors are nervous over the overseas austerity riots, don't they normally flock to gold as a haven? If not, where are they flocking now? Cash? Batten down the hatches with the mattress?


----------



## Argonaut

Gold has now shed all of its gains in the last two months of shenanigans. It is also below my year end price target of $1686. Of more interest is the slaughter in silver. It has finally brought the relationship back above the true ratio of 50:1. Silver is a good buy at 60:1. How far will gold drop? There may be an opportunity for me to buy another ounce.


----------



## Abha

I'm curious as to why the Gold "bubble" popped at this time. All indicators would suggest that people would be jumping into this asset class.

It seems at this time, people are more comfortable with treasuries than precious metals, but I don't think gold will stay at this level for long.


----------



## ddkay

Margin call liquidations are deadly. Next few months are going to be bad news for inflationista's


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1650.76.


----------



## v_tofu

Abha said:


> I'm curious as to why the Gold "bubble" popped at this time. All indicators would suggest that people would be jumping into this asset class.
> 
> It seems at this time, people are more comfortable with treasuries than precious metals, but I don't think gold will stay at this level for long.


Money is simply jumping from Euro's to USD and treasuries. Sheep still go to the barn even if its on fire.

Once people realize the USD is in just as much trouble as the Euro, then they run to the yellow stuff!


----------



## ddkay

As Harold and I were discussing earlier The Helicopter has undone about 2/3rd of QE2 with Twist, and screwed the lending business for dozens of small banks. That's deflationary...

While PMs crash the market will wait for sellers to run out, and asset holders will stare into the abyss and wait to discover their pinch point.


----------



## dogcom

V tofu the same error is being made today by gold bugs as was made before the 2008 crash. While gold will go higher as you said it must first sell off with the rest of the market as people sell what they can sell to raise money. 

The second point is the gold market is simply to small to hold up to a mass buying frenzy. The Euro is in trouble so the US dollar must go higher as it is the most liquid place to be and is still the senior currency.

Having said all that once the sell off ends then back up the truck to gold producers because there will be plenty of money to be made there.


----------



## ddkay

I think the sellers have run out, GC has been consolidataing since noon. Low of the day was 1631.70. This is healthy, possibly even bullish for gold. Let's see what next week brings...


----------



## andrewf

^ I agree... I think it's too early to say that the bubble has popped for gold. We saw a bigger retrenchment a couple years ago. What seems likeliest to me is that gold is returning to trend after running ahead of itself these past few months. I'll wait and see what the market says.


----------



## fatcat

there is this deep fear of persistent deflation coupled with the feds seeming refusal to do QE3 ... that makes gold look less than attractive ...


----------



## Mike59

Today was a fascinating day! Took what little profit was left on my XGD and loaded upon Central Fund of Canada (CEF.A) to lower my cost base..

My portfolio is now: 
5% REIT (XRE)
17% Gold/Silver Bullion (CEF.A)
3% Physical Silver 
75% Cash in HISAs

I don't see how people can be truly concerned about deflation- look at the amount of money that has been printed since 2008, most of which is being restrained from the system by misguided government policy and artificially low interest rates. How you can attempt to contract this supply without raising interest rates to 20% and beyond?










The big mistake I think most are making is to gauge the price of gold and silver in US dollars.- with fiat currency it's an illusion. Relative to the Dow, and real estate, the bull market in gold and silver continues on, today represented a great buying opportunity to load up.

There has been no change in the fiscal environment (or what is to be expected from the knuckleheads in power) that should force one to dump precious metals right now. The fun will begin when QE3 measures are announced in coming months, and the money supply graph lifts off to the moon.


----------



## ddkay

You don't understand the credit created is off-setting wealth destruction in real estate, that's not taken into account in money base. Money base measures most liquid assets, coins, currency, checkable deposits, bank reserves. Not real estate. Real estate is still collapsing, 2.5 trillion + of value destroyed and the Fed have been trying to do everything they can to reinflate it. The bad news is they haven't been able to reinflate it, this fresh money has spent its half life in the most liquid markets - equities and commodities that could be bought and sold quickly. Meanwhile on Main St. the economy basically never left the recession and trillions more dollars have again been destroyed in the recent selloffs (this should show up as spikes on the monetary base over the next few months as the Fed tries to be proactive with Op Twist and other schemes).


----------



## Argonaut

I like this correction. If support holds here, the regular uptrend present since pre-July can resume. I made money five times on GLD options in the past two months so it wasn't volatility wasted. The bull market in gold officially ends when it closes negative on a year-to-year basis. As soon as the time is right, I'll swap my CGL for an ounce of physical. The downside of CGL in the past while is that it's hedged to Canadian dollars which has been double-bad.


----------



## Belguy

From the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...if-you-are-looking-for-safety/article2178376/


----------



## Argonaut

David Berman is a bit of a goof and obviously doesn't understand gold. The recent volatility has been good for paper trading if you were on the right side of it, and bad if you weren't. But as far as holding physical gold in your hands, it's still as safe as it has been for thousands of years. When gold drops 10% you're not required to chop off a tenth of your ounce and throw it away. It'll still be there, 79 protons in an atom.


----------



## KaeJS

Like a meteor headed straight for earth - Gold is falling from the sky...

Goodbye CGL, it was nice owning you... making a nice paper profit, and then watching myself give it all back to a paper loss...

Sep 23 close: $1657.20

Current: $1646.90


----------



## ddkay

What happens if in thousands of years we can just mine gold from space? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/401227.stm


----------



## dogcom

Gold will make you sick with the ups and downs and in the end you will not want to own it. First we need to see a reckless buying frenzy like internet 2000 and then sell your gold and we are done.

This is a reckless game we are in and everything is screwed up so own the gold get the ride and then ditch it for 30 years and then go again. It is all a stupid game that is forced on us so play and trade and then move on.


----------



## KaeJS

That article is over 12 years old!


----------



## Mike59

You are all falling into Bernanke`s trap...
When something rises 600% in a 10year bull pattern, what is a 20% pullback in the grand scheme? 
The fundamentals are different here than in the dot com bubble. 

If someone can prove to me that central banks can cure and reverse the current fiscal ailments without ultimately causing inflation, I'll happily stop buying silver.


----------



## KaeJS

Broke below $1600.

I'm quite new to Gold and I don't know if I like it. It doesn't pay a dividend and I can't get my head wrapped around the fact that it isnt backed by anything except for the fact people think its worth something.

I own 200 CGL at $15.00. If I sell now, I will only take a small loss (Maybe $100-$200). 

Anybody have any suggestions? What if this ends up just going back to $1200? I rather get out now...

Only issue is... I will get out, and the USD will be done inflating upwards and then gold will start to go back up as the USD comes down a little...

I could trade 200 CGL for 100 SU.TO and increase my cash position at the same time. Thoughts, anyone?


----------



## ddkay

As long as the current financial system exists, gold is an asset NOT a currency. It will be sold to generate cash. It cannot exist as a safe haven with practically insolvent economies in the EU owning it in among the world's largest reserves. If it does correct to its intrinsic value ($200-$300) I will probably back up the truck and hold onto it for the next bubble. Same with silver, not touching silver until its below $2, the price point it began to go parabolic.


----------



## dogcom

Kaejs I would be looking to add to gold producers instead of the gold bullion. Just look at a comparison of CGL to G or Goldcorp and you can see CGL went straight up and G did not follow. This to me means there should be money to be made in the quality gold producing stocks.


----------



## fatcat

ddkay said:


> Same with silver, not touching silver until its below $2, the price point it began to go parabolic.


 what the hell ... why not hold out for a loonie per ounce ?


----------



## ddkay

As long as Goldman Sachs publishes client notes that its bullish on PMs, I'm bearish on PMs


----------



## bobwatford123

Silver was $2?


----------



## ddkay

Yeah, on a nominal basis pre-1970. It's an extremely small market rife with speculation and manipulation. First the Hunts brothers, then Uncle Warren's Berkshire Hathaway...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Silver_price_in_USD.png

"Berkshire Hathaway quietly accumulated a huge position in the silver market, driving prices up 90 per cent in a few months to what was then a 10-year high of $7.90. Following Warren Buffett’s silver play in 1998, the price of the metal dropped 40 per cent and Berkshire Hathaway recorded its worst annual results on record, relative to the S&P 500, in 1999."

Don't care about the fundamentals of silver, it's not an asset I want to be invested in, especially with "the man" having a negative bias towards it.


----------



## Belguy

For better or worse, richer or poorer, I just continue to hold the RBC Global Precious Metals Fund D 'forever'.

http://funds.rbcgam.com/pdf/fund-pages/monthly/rbf1038_e.pdf

Gold drops:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...iggest-3-day-fall-in-28-years/article2179949/


----------



## Argonaut

Gold isn't "backed by" anything, whereas the US dollar is? Talk about bizarro world. Next thing you'll tell me is that the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are 3-0.

ddkay: A couple of the trades I've made in the last month.. I made the execution, then found news that Goldman were telling their clients to do the same thing. SPY puts before the August jobs report, and RIMM puts before earnings. Both bets won big. Tough to bet against Sachs.

$2 silver is silly.


----------



## Belguy

In today's Dilbert comic strip, the big headed, bald employee says to the pointy-haired boss, "I have an MBA and yet I keep losing money in the stock market. How can this be"?

The pointy haired boss replies, "I put all of my money in gold because it's shiny. My portfolio doubled last year:.

The pointy haired boss then says, "I'm thinking of getting an MBA. How long does it take? A week?"

Maybe someone out there can post it. Thanks!!


----------



## leoc2




----------



## Belguy

Thanks, leoc2!!!


----------



## Argonaut

That's true on junior miners. My AR has taken a 25% haircut from its peak. I'm still in the positive, and will load up on more sometime if my next option trade is fruitful. Gold itself has started to gather some steam since last week. Getting close to my previous year-end target @ 1686.


----------



## Mike59

Argonaut said:


> That's true on junior miners. My AR has taken a 25% haircut from its peak. I'm still in the positive, and will load up on more sometime if my next option trade is fruitful. Gold itself has started to gather some steam since last week. Getting close to my previous year-end target @ 1686.


Although if timed right, junior miners (GDXJ or ZJG) are a good high-leverage play and will return more than the GDX or XGD during an upswing. The juniors flirting with their 52 week low as of today may not be a bad thing.

The only problem is deciding when to get in...

The Gold:XAU ratio looks awesome right now as a point to start accumulating, but I'm tempted to wait just a little longer, 2008 served as a good example that miners will be punished badly during the general escape from equities. 

Today seems like a good day to keep buying gold and silver bullion, I'm staying long CEF.A


----------



## 50invester

*Junior gold stock*

My BTO.TO took an 11% haircut today and it was below my price of 3.90 already. I don't understand what is happening. Should I be worried? Please help!


----------



## Mike59

50invester said:


> My BTO.TO took an 11% haircut today and it was below my price of 3.90 already. I don't understand what is happening. Should I be worried? Please help!


It may be a good exercise to review the gold miner performance during the 2008 downturn. You'd need an iron stomach to handle what appears to be coming down the pipe for equities.

I`d be quite worried for the short term as miners are tied to volatile changes in gold, but also will take a huge hit during a flight away from equities. Right now nothing is safe, and I personally would diversify into a mining etf, or cut your losses until things stabilize and come back in at this price on the way back up....

I like miners for the long run, but behind rank them behind gold and silver bullion in gains i would expect vs the dow.


----------



## 50invester

Mike59 said:


> It may be a good exercise to review the gold miner performance during the 2008 downturn. You'd need an iron stomach to handle what appears to be coming down the pipe for equities.
> 
> I`d be quite worried for the short term as miners are tied to volatile changes in gold, but also will take a huge hit during a flight away from equities. Right now nothing is safe, and I personally would diversify into a mining etf, or cut your losses until things stabilize and come back in at this price on the way back up....
> 
> I like miners for the long run, but behind rank them behind gold and silver bullion in gains i would expect vs the dow.


Thanks for the insight!


----------



## dogcom

I have cut my gold position in half until the dust settles here and I am prepared to load back up probably in November. The US dollar is the only liquid place to be even if the US is near bankrupt, but once things settle down a little gold miners will be a very good place to be.


----------



## andrewf

I haven't rebalanced back into gold yet. Given the current volatility, I am willing to wait to see what happens. I was taking profits when gold spiked, so I am still standing at a substantial gain overall on gold.


----------



## dogcom

It is surprising Zylon about the HUI. With oil dropping meaning costs are dropping for gold miners it is only a matter of time when investors will load up on the producing gold companies.


----------



## fatcat

> The Gold:XAU ratio looks awesome right now as a point to start accumulating, but I'm tempted to wait just a little longer, 2008 served as a good example that miners will be punished badly during the general escape from equities.


 great comment, i am thinking the same thing ... i sold my cgl (and slw) ... i think producers are maybe a better bet but when ? ... because as you say, they will go in the crapper if this thing falls to pieces

freeport-mcmoran had a p/e of like 5 and pays a 3% dividend, of course you get both gold and copper which are different plays

i think fcx also has a lot of production problems as well


----------



## gibor365

Couple of day ago was looking to open a very small position in gold bullion x2, was looking to Canadian analog of UGL ProShares Ultra Gold (US$ is too high).
Found HBU . it's description "The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, two times (200%) the daily performance of the COMEX Gold Bullion Index.". Checked performance comparing to UGL for short/long term -> exactly the same...

And today was really surprised to see HBU top 10 holdings:
_ IAMGold CorporationIAG Long 12.8% -- $9.8M 
COMEX Gold Bullion Index Forward Long 11.8% -- $9.0M 
Research in Motion, Ltd.RIMM Long 8.3% -30.37% $6.3M 
Eldorado Gold Corporation, Ltd.EGO Long 8.2% -46.83% $6.2M 
Fairfax Financial Holdings, Ltd.FFH Long 7.9% -- $6.0M 
Agnico-Eagle MinesAEM Long 7.6% -- $5.8M 
Barrick Gold CorporationABX Long 7.2% -- $5.5M 
Talisman Energy, Inc.TLM Long 4.9% -- $3.7M 
Teck Cominco Long 4.8% -- $3.7M 
Agrium, Inc.AGU Long 4.0% -- $3.1M _

I can understand some miners can be included...but what the hell RIMM with 8.3% is doing there as well as Talisman, Agrium etc???


----------



## andrewf

I'm guessing that is bogus information. Someone asked a similar question about RIM in HNU a couple days ago.


----------



## gibor365

andrewf said:


> I'm guessing that is bogus information. Someone asked a similar question about RIM in HNU a couple days ago.


This is very strange as the same info is on TDW and on Yahoo Finance


----------



## andrewf

The only other thing I can think of is that these ETFs are swap based, in which case you are not actually exposed to those holdings. The Horizons site is not very clear. I don't hold any Horizons ETFs, otherwise I would have pestered them for more information.


----------



## Lephturn

gibor said:


> Couple of day ago was looking to open a very small position in gold bullion x2, was looking to Canadian analog of UGL ProShares Ultra Gold (US$ is too high).
> Found HBU . it's description "The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, two times (200%) the daily performance of the COMEX Gold Bullion Index.". Checked performance comparing to UGL for short/long term -> exactly the same...


Hmmm, here is what the prospectus says... and I would expect... it is based on COMEX gold futures contracts. Check the Fact Sheet and Prospectus links on the left of this page: http://www.horizonsetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HBU&r=o

Horizons HBU 
Investment Objective 
Horizons HBU seeks daily investment results, before fees, expenses, distributions, brokerage commissions and 
other transaction costs, that endeavour to correspond to two times (200%) the daily performance of the COMEX® 
gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month. Horizons HBU is denominated in Canadian dollars. Any 
U.S. dollar gains or losses as a result of the ETF's investment will be hedged back to the Canadian dollar to the best 
of its ability. - 8 - 
If Horizons HBU is successful in meeting its investment objective, its net asset value should gain approximately two 
times as much, on a percentage basis, as the COMEX® gold futures contract for the next delivery month, when this 
Referenced Futures Contract rises on a given day. Conversely, Horizons HBU’s net asset value should lose 
approximately two times as much, on a percentage basis, as the COMEX® gold futures contract for the next 
delivery month when this Referenced Futures Contract declines on a given day. See “Overview of the Sectors that 
the ETFs Invest In” at page 41. 
Principal Investment Strategy 
Horizons HBU takes positions in equity securities and/or other financial instruments that, in combination, should 
have similar daily return characteristics as two times (200%) the daily performance of the rolling COMEX® gold 
futures contract for the next delivery month, including futures or swaps that refer to a different contract other than 
the benchmark. In order to achieve this objective, the total underlying notional value of these instruments and/or 
securities will typically not exceed two times the total assets of the ETF. As such, Horizons HBU will employ 
absolute leverage. Assets not invested in financial instruments and/or securities may be invested in debt instruments 
or money market instruments with a term not to exceed 365 days, or reverse repurchase agreements with a term not 
to exceed 30 days. See “Investment Strategies” on page 30. 
Value of the Referenced Futures Contract 
Horizons HBU will typically use the price of the COMEX® gold futures contract for a subsequent delivery month 
as determined at approximately 1:30 p.m. (EST) as the reference for its daily investment objective. The 
performance of Horizons HBU will be based on a rolling futures position for a subsequent delivery month. On a 
periodic basis, positions in the COMEX® gold futures contracts specifying delivery on a nearby date must be sold 
and the COMEX® gold futures contracts that have not yet reached the delivery period must be purchased. By 
rolling, an investor with a rolling position in a COMEX® gold futures contract avoids delivering the underlying 
physical commodity while maintaining exposure to gold. See “Other Material Facts – Futures Contract 
Information” at page 95.


----------



## gibor365

Lephturn said:


> Hmmm, here is what the prospectus says... and I would expect... it is based on COMEX gold futures contracts. Check the Fact Sheet and Prospectus links on the left of this page:


I know, I read it....

This is why I was very surprised to see top holdings I mentioned on TDW and Globeinvestor.com


----------



## fatcat

from Bloomberg Oct 14, 2011

Gold Traders Most Bullish Since July After Plunge
By Nicholas Larkin 
Gold’s biggest slump in three years means traders and analysts are now the most bullish in three months, speculating that Europe’s debt crisis, slowing growth and a bear market in equities will drive demand for bullion.

*Twenty-two of 25 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to rise next week, the highest proportion since mid-July. *


----------



## el oro

Zylon, what do you invest in for your gold exposure?


----------



## v_tofu

zylon said:


> @ $16Gb2
> 
> CEF.A for the physical; I don't hold bullion personally as it doesn't fit my circumstances.
> 
> Own 1/2 dozen producers and explorers; plus PM mutual funds.
> 
> Total exposure to PMs is 20%


What is your pm mutual fund? If you don't mind me asking.


----------



## fatcat

why are goldcorp and barrick both dropping steadily this week ?

my gut says that people are getting really worried about deflation and with the fed on the sidelines there is no case for gold at the moment

opinions welcome and who do you like better ?


----------



## Betzy

G is the one for me, but it is only for trading, bought and sold three times now, best one being a $6.00 share spread. A bit of a fluke but the chart is great for trading.


----------



## webber22

Royal Canadian Mint Announces Offering of New Gold Investment Product. 
To be traded on the TSX, mer .35%, compared to a .50% fee for something like Claymore CGL

http://www.mint.ca/store/news/royal...002&parentnId=600004&nodeGroup=About+the+Mint


----------



## ddkay

Nice!


----------



## the-royal-mail

Very interesting. I noted distribution through established banking channels. I wonder if these will be repackaging and inflating the MERs so they can be purchased through them if you're a customer?


----------



## andrewf

Weird, no? Will the Mint be offering other investment products?


----------



## webber22

Someone commented that since the Americans confiscated its citizens gold at one time, it would be real easy for Canada to do the same with this setup  ....


----------



## zylon

*gold confiscation - another myth*

The gold wasn't confiscated (a legal seizure without compensation);
it was exchanged for paper with pretty pictures.



> Executive Order 6102 is an Executive Order signed on April 5, 1933, by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion, and Gold Certificates within the continental United States". The order criminalized the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.
> 
> (..)
> 
> Executive Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for *$20.67 per troy ounce*. (...) The order further permitted any person to own up to $100 in gold coins ($1,677 if adjusted for inflation as of 2010.
> 
> (...)
> 
> There was only one prosecution under the order, and in that case the order was ruled invalid by federal judge John M. Woolsey, on the grounds that the order was signed by the President, not the Secretary of the Treasury as required.


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Executive+Order+6102


----------



## fatcat

> Someone commented that since the Americans confiscated its citizens gold at one time, it would be real easy for Canada to do the same with this setup ....


possible, but this would have to be considered the "nuclear option" ... canada has worldwide reputation as a gold producer, producer of high quality gold coins and is seen as key country in precious metals ... 

all of that would be tarnished pretty badly by such a move ... 

if i read this right, you could request your physical gold and take delivery if you started to get nervous about such a prospect ... 

this strikes me as very smart move on the part of the mint ... 

how do i buy stock in the mint 

claymore can't be too happy about this and i wonder if we will see them lower the costs on CGL ?


----------



## jcgd

Are many of you still buying into gold? I mean, with the all time high being around $1800 per ounce (adjusted) and the current price being so high, doesn't anyone think it's time to cut and run?


----------



## kid5022

fatcat said:


> possible, but this would have to be considered the "nuclear option" ... canada has worldwide reputation as a gold producer, producer of high quality gold coins and is seen as key country in precious metals ...
> 
> all of that would be tarnished pretty badly by such a move ...
> 
> if i read this right, you could request your physical gold and take delivery if you started to get nervous about such a prospect ...
> 
> this strikes me as very smart move on the part of the mint ...
> 
> how do i buy stock in the mint
> 
> claymore can't be too happy about this and i wonder if we will see them lower the costs on CGL ?


but taking the gold from the people or forcing ppl to trade it for paper doesn't affect the producing of gold in Canada. It would only let the rest of the world know that gold is a very valuable asset (strategic). 

Many ETF allow the holders to take delivery, but the problem is how long it take and the paper work required. Of course the RCM reputation is better than any bank (S) or company.

I wish I could also buy stock in the mint, sadly I think it is a crown corp, nothing we could do, unless they want to privatize it


----------



## Mike59

jcgd said:


> Are many of you still buying into gold? I mean, with the all time high being around $1800 per ounce (adjusted) and the current price being so high, doesn't anyone think it's time to cut and run?


I got up to my target allocation just before the August dive via CEF.A (and rode the roller coaster of pain back to where we are now). I have more of an interest in pure silver bullion now, and play to keep accumulating it as well in my safety deposit box gradually, only because I think there is better value here. 

To me gold miners are also tremendously undervalued and I see another cycle of gold miner outperformance relative to gold on the way. I'm loading up on XGD and ZJG every 2 weeks and treat them as a levered play on gold. I plan to hold on the order of just a few months, and will dump them when the $GOLD:$XAU and $GOLD:$HUI ratios dive into a sweet spot. 

With all that said however (and in answer to your question) I wouldn't fault anyone for continuing to buy gold bullion even at these prices, the long term view for fiat currency and western economies is bleak and gold has lots of room to run. We may look back from $3000 or $5000 an oz and think that $1750 was a steal.


----------



## Argonaut

Mike59 said:


> I have more of an interest in pure silver bullion now, and play to keep accumulating it as well in my safety deposit box gradually, only because I think there is better value here.


The silver to gold ratio is at its perfect and natural number right now, at 50:1. There is no advantage in buying one or the other, they are both fairly priced in terms of each other. Whenever the number drifts in either direction then value in either silver or gold appears. This relationship is easy and profitable to trade.


----------



## andrewf

jcgd said:


> Are many of you still buying into gold? I mean, with the all time high being around $1800 per ounce (adjusted) and the current price being so high, doesn't anyone think it's time to cut and run?


I've been taking profits. Last time I added anything to my position was way back in January.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> The silver to gold ratio is at its perfect and natural number right now, at 50:1. There is no advantage in buying one or the other, they are both fairly priced in terms of each other. Whenever the number drifts in either direction then value in either silver or gold appears. This relationship is easy and profitable to trade.


Maybe time to buy some platinum (PPLT):
"_In the past 20 years, platinum has been this cheap related to gold only five times. Let's take a look at what happened to the price of platinum after these 4 occasions:

Platinum Spot Price

That's a solid trend: an average of 61.5% gains in 24 months. I expect we'll see similar gains this time around._

full article
http://seekingalpha.com/article/302...cious-metals-etf?ifp=0&source=email_etf_daily


----------



## Argonaut

I made a platinum call last year and it was too soon. Luckily I didn't act on it and remain mostly devoted to good old gold. 

But you are right, platinum being worth less than gold is a buy signal. The problem is, any recession possibility means you could be waiting a while for platinum to rebound. The single greatest case for gold over platinum is its low correlation with the economy, which platinum prices are reliant upon. When building the standard portfolio with 25% gold, it will protect you from declines in other asset classes.

All of that being said, I would like to play platinum and palladium when the time is right, but their ETFs don't have any options which is a huge disappointment.


----------



## gibor365

Argonaut said:


> All of that being said, I would like to play platinum and palladium when the time is right, .


It's a good question when time is right....?!

BTW what price ranges you thing is a good entry into PPLT/PALL? 150/60?


----------



## Argonaut

There's been some debate on the forum on averaging into positions lately. This strategy works better for metals than stocks. Metals will never go to zero, and the long term trend is higher given supply, demand, and inflating fiat currencies. I wouldn't fault someone from averaging into platinum. Buy some this month and some more next year. This doesn't really work for me because I only have five figures of capital to play with. That's why it sucks there are no options available for me to apply maximum leverage with minimal cash at the precise moment. Perhaps I should get into the futures market at some point.


----------



## kid5022

just wondering, anyone know how they did the math?????

The gross spot price of each receipt is $20, and once expenses and commissions to the agents are accounted for, each receipt can be expected to purchase 0.012 ounces of gold based on the current bullion price of $1,725 U.S. an ounce. The receipts will carry an annual service fee, which is equivalent to a management expense ratio of 35 basis points. There are no other ongoing costs.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Mint+offers+gold/5635646/story.html#ixzz1cRFqtujB


----------



## kid5022

The Royal Canadian Mint is the Crown Corporation responsible for the minting and distribution of Canada's circulation coins. An ISO 9001-2008 certified company, the Mint is recognized as one of the largest and most versatile mints in the world, offering a wide range of specialized, high quality coinage products and related services on an international scale. 

Each ETR will represent an equal undivided direct legal and beneficial interest in gold bullion to be held in custody by the Mint. The gold bullion will be legally and beneficially owned by the ETR Holders and not by the Mint. The amount of gold bullion purchased will be equal to the proceeds of the Offering, after deduction of the expenses of the Offering, divided by the average price per ounce of the gold bullion paid to third party sellers on the Issue Date.

The objective of the Program is to provide an exchange-traded investment vehicle that tracks the price of gold and makes investing directly in physical gold available to institutional and retail investors.

The Per ETR Entitlement to Gold will be fixed on the Issue Date and will be expressed as a fraction of one fine troy ounce of gold as of the Issue Date. The Mint will issue a press release on the Issue Date announcing the initial Per ETR Entitlement to Gold. The Per ETR Entitlement to Gold will be reduced daily by the Service Fee of 0.35% per annum and will be posted daily to the Canadian Gold Reserves Program Website.

Each ETR also entitles the holder thereof, on the Purchase Date, to purchase for C$20.00 a number of additional ETRs equal to (i) C$20.00 divided by (ii) the NAV per ETR on the Purchase Date (or such date as soon as practicable thereafter on which the physical gold bullion underlying the additional ETRs is acquired) plus the ETR's pro rata share of the out-of-pocket expenses of the Mint incurred in connection with such purchase. Following the Purchase Date, any unexercised Purchase Rights will expire.

Subject to the terms of the ETRs, the ETRs will constitute direct unconditional obligations of the Mint, an agent of Her Majesty in right of Canada and, as such, will constitute direct unconditional obligations of Her Majesty in right of Canada. ETR Holders will have no recourse to the Mint or the Government of Canada for any loss on their investment.

ETRs are redeemable at the option of the ETR Holder once per month for cash or for physical gold bullion. Redemptions may be made initially on the 15th day of the third month following the Issue Date and thereafter on the 15th day of each month (or, if not a business day, on the next succeeding business day).

The Program does not have a fixed termination date but may be terminated by the Mint, at its sole discretion, upon the occurrence of one of the termination events described in the Information Statement.

The issuer's website can be found at www.mint.ca

Please refer to the Information Statement for full details of this offering.

Expected during the week of November 28, 2011


----------



## Mike59

Argonaut said:


> The silver to gold ratio is at its perfect and natural number right now, at 50:1. There is no advantage in buying one or the other, they are both fairly priced in terms of each other. Whenever the number drifts in either direction then value in either silver or gold appears. This relationship is easy and profitable to trade.


On what fact would you base this ratio? 

Historically they have traded at 16:1 in prior civilizations, which is believed to match the balance in the ground. "The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there are current in-situ reserves of approximately 16.4 billion ounces of silver versus 1.6 billion ounces for gold, or about a 10-to-one ratio"("Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011." US Geological Survey (2011). Pg. 66-67, 146-147)

With essentially no net gain in production and rising consumption of silver, it's reasonable to conclude we're in a cycle that's headed back closer to 16:1.

50:1 seems to me like a good value play for silver as we trend up and down on this erratic curve...lower lows since 1991 suggest a serious silver bull run, next resistance point is 30:1


----------



## andrewf

Horizon has a new ETF HZB for long silver/gold ratio (HBZ for short silver/gold ratio) based on silver and gold futures. Both have tiny floats, but maybe they will take off. I'm not aware of any similar ETFs in the US where they would likely pick up some more liquidity.


----------



## fatcat

this was interesting, from the globe and mail, the three fomc members who have been opposed to recent fed moves because of concern about inflation have now dropped their opposition which means they think inflation is not a threat

this could go against gold if deflation is lurking or for gold if, as i think, it means they are laying the ground for qe3


----------



## webber22

Trading under MNT, MNT.U, you can check your broker's new issues for info on the "Royal Canadian Mint Canadian Gold Reserves Program". There is a download Here. It looks like you can only take physical delivery if it's over 10,000 units, plus some fees


----------



## Mike59

zylon said:


> *"Gold equity ETFs are outperforming gold."*












XGD is up 13% since I posted --> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=8352&highlight=gold+miners

I got in on some junior miners (ZJG.TO) after they dipped a bit further, they're still flat for now but I'm expecting a huge jump soon...


----------



## the-royal-mail

1792.21


----------



## andrewf

Plot all of those against UGL. It is up 338% since inception in late 2008. Zylon, it looks like those two funds just have higher beta.


----------



## andrewf

HBU is a hedged to CAD 2x gold fund, if you prefer. UGL seems to track better, I'm guessing because hedging a leveraged fund is non-trivial.


----------



## andrewf

For what it's worth, I'd rather stick to the commodity. There are fewer moving parts. I wouldn't overweight gold miners (beyond what I have in my equity allocation) because you are mixing your commodity exposure with equity exposure.


----------



## fatcat

> For what it's worth, I'd rather stick to the commodity. There are fewer moving parts. I wouldn't overweight gold miners (beyond what I have in my equity allocation) because you are mixing your commodity exposure with equity exposure.


someone please set me straight here: i am assuming that the miners are poised (god knows everyone seems to be shouting "buy the miners") to rise higher relative to gold .. ok, i get the theory ... but what if gold at 1800 is just overbought (a distinct possibility) and might settle at say 1500 for awhile, the miners will not look so good (especially if oil continues to rise, their costs will rise exponentially)

it seems to me that the miners make sense when you have something like a real floor in gold (like say 1000 is probably unbreachable ever again) so that volatility can be factored out

until then bullion is a better, purer play in terms of gold as a safe haven / inflation / currency alternative asset
someone tell me where i am wrong here ...


----------



## OptsyEagle

I am not a gold bug by any means, but don't you find it peculiar that on days like this gold falls in price?

I mean if you had to envision the most perfect environment for gold to move up on, I doubt you would come up with a better one then we have now.

Do you think this means something or just an anomoly.


----------



## ddkay

Gold goes up with the market, there are some "bad news event" gains but in the longer term picture its insignificant. Commercial banks and central banks have to sell anything not glued down, that includes gold. When a full debt purge is complete, gold will be historically undervalued again, and that's when I'll feel comfortable picking some up as a generational investment.


----------



## ddkay

It's not manipulation... it's practically moving in lockstep with all other asset classes since October. Can you imagine the effect on gold price if Italy releases their vaults on the open market? You can't say that will never happen, they want to protect their solvency, you just don't know when.


----------



## ddkay

I don't see how being forced to sell assets it advantageous to Italy or the other GIPS... yes it protects their solvency, but it's not voluntary and on a regular order of priorities gold is much lower ranked than sovereignty itself. So in my definition that is not manipulation.


----------



## OptsyEagle

I guess it is just me. I can see why people might want to sell their stocks today and over the last few months, but I doubt I would be selling my gold (if I had bought some) today or over the last few months.

I mean if I bought it because I was worried about government backed currencies falling apart, I doubt what is going on in the world today would be reducing my anxiety over that issue.

Anyway, I find it perplexing but I guess I can just add it to the list of the other 1,378,482 perplexing things I have seen in my investing tenure.

Wouldn't it be nice if just one day in my life made some kind of logical sense.lol.


----------



## fatcat

> I am not a gold bug by any means, but don't you find it peculiar that on days like this gold falls in price?
> 
> I mean if you had to envision the most perfect environment for gold to move up on, I doubt you would come up with a better one then we have now.
> 
> Do you think this means something or just an anomoly.


 gold dropped hard in 08 ... i think the reason for the selloff is simple ... fear of deflation coupled with all this talk of austerity ... there is no obvious immediate inflation factor on the horizon

if the ecb (or fed) starts printing money then gold will start up again


----------



## Belguy

There's a rush to U.S. treasuries. Gold is in a retrenchment phase but it will come back--even if nothing else does!!


----------



## Miser

Gold is still below the January 1980 inflation-adjusted high of about $2,400 per ounce.


----------



## KaeJS

OptsyEagle said:


> Anyway, I find it perplexing but I guess I can just add it to the list of the other 1,378,482 perplexing things I have seen in my investing tenure.
> 
> Wouldn't it be nice if just one day in my life made some kind of logical sense.lol.


Reading your post had me laughing hysterically for a good 30 seconds or so.


----------



## zylon

*the concerned gold investor*












> Major buyers are between $1610 and $1650. Sellers are at $1764.
> It looks like the Gold banks are working for the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
> ~source


----------



## dogcom

When you think about what else is there to buy other then the US dollar when the crap from Europe hits. The gold market is just to small to handle the amount of currency that would go to it so the US dollar is it. 

When the US debt really comes into it after the Europe fiasco then gold will be the only one left standing. After that the debt gets written off then new stronger fiat currencies come to play and gold collapses for another 20 or 30 years.


----------



## Mike59

What a crazy day so far!

SLV: -5.06% (silver down to 29.16)
GLD: -2.91% (gold down to 1584.10)

I had buy limit orders on CEF.A that got triggered into position at 21.75 and 20.75, all in the last 24 hrs!

Off to go buy more physical silver for the stack...Portfolio approaching 25% metal 

I think I'll ride this allocation for awhile, and will shift my attention toward junior miners as they continue to nose dive, now near 52 week lows. 

This has become a quiet thread in recent weeks!  Anyone else backing up the truck?


----------



## KaeJS

Mike59 said:


> Anyone else backing up the truck?


Definitely not me.

I've got 100 CGL. I refuse to add more.


----------



## the-royal-mail

$1575.68

Sheesh.


----------



## zylon

*a cool million*



> *Grandich willing to bet Gartman $1-million gold bull still kicking*
> 
> “Mr. Gartman is one of three people who many in the media continue to quote despite a nearly decade-long poor overall track record on gold,” he said. “He, Jeff Christian and Jon Nadler have demonstrated to me (and I suspect many others) that a broken clock’s percentage of telling the correct time in any given day is about the same as their actual accurate forecasts for gold in the last decade.”
> 
> Mr. Grandich said he is willing to wager any of the three US$1-million that gold will hit US$2000 an ounce before it hits US$1,000 on the COMEX.
> 
> Indeed, he has already arranged for the law firm of Lomurro, Davison, Eastman & Munoz of Freehold, New Jersey to hold the funds in trust.
> 
> The full article at: http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/14/grandich-willing-to-wager-gartman-us1-million/


*ADDED:*
Gartman's response to Peter Grandich's challenge.

Snip:


> This then should hardly be construed as being bearish; I have simply chosen to stand aside, and that my friend is why I’ll not take up your bet. I simply cannot see gold trading to $1000/ounce, although I do suspect that $1350-$1425 is reasonable and perhaps likely in the course of the next several weeks.
> http://www.grandich.com/2011/12/follow-up-to-1-million-offer/


----------



## doctrine

I would back up the truck on gold at $500/oz and silver below $15/oz. Until then, I wait.


----------



## fatcat

i also think it's more likely to go to $1000 than $2000 ...

but i would certainly get back in again if it broke below $1000


----------



## ddkay

I don't know if anyone still pays attention to Jim Rogers but he's been calling for a correction in gold for awhile now, but that's all it is. In the short term this is not a bad entry but in a few months it should be possible to pick some up around $1300, lower than that would indicate a multi-year trend change / bubble burst eventually taking gold price down to where it started its run at around $200-250.

Jims rationale was this - the Fed started QE3 in May/June, as they opened liquidity swap lines with the ECB US monetary base jumped up (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3SN). It didn't do anything though because the deflationary headwinds from tightening institutional reserve capital requirements in accordance with Basel and deleveraging are stronger. Now he's also long US dollars.


----------



## jcgd

I'd by in at the cost to get it out of the ground. Nothing more than that.

As soon as things turn around, which you can never know how soon or far that will be, the current PM run is over.


----------



## ddkay

The dynamic for gold is the exact the opposite as it seems, if things turn around you want to own gold, it appreciates pretty much in unison with all other assets. Gold rising means the Western World and EMs like China and India are prospering, together (there is no decoupling in a globalized economy).

We can't have growth without inflation, I don't see what the big fear about inflation is... hyperinflation happened when debts were repaid in currency, today debt is repaid in credit. If the Tea Party and GOP want to shut down the Fed and stop growth by all means go ahead, I will invest in bonds and cash even more even longer. Japanese Government Bonds and Yen have been in a 20 year bull market despite having real negative interest rates.


----------



## dogcom

I think now is the time to start picking up good producing gold miners while you can. It may get cheaper still if the overall market gets hammered but I think they will be much higher after that. Gold miners haven't moved basically this year while gold has gone up and up until recently.


----------



## el oro

Gold is resting (ideally 6-18 months from the $1900 peak) before its spectacular sprint to the finish. If it plays out like other commodity bull markets of the past there will be an exponential thrust to the upside in a short period of time, indicating the end of the run.

Since i believe gold is a hedge against the financial/government system, I hope gold doesn't exceed $5k by much. Gold at $10k later this decade would just mean a really ugly situation for the unprepared. Even if you don't like gold, you should still prepare yourself in case your financial institution pulls an MFGlobal as regulators clearly won't protect you. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security because you think your bank is safer in one way or another. Consider methods such as "direct registration" to have your equity in your name, which will cover you if your broker goes bust.


----------



## OptsyEagle

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Since i believe gold is a hedge against the financial/government system, I hope gold doesn't exceed $5k by much. Gold at $10k later this decade would just mean a really ugly situation for the unprepared.



Would it? Why is $10,000 such a high price and not $1,500. Compared to $100 per ounce, $1,500 seems very high to me. What is the fundamental price of gold so that I can figure this out. What is the price earnings ratio of a bar of gold?


----------



## Mike59

OptsyEagle said:


> Would it? Why is $10,000 such a high price and not $1,500. Compared to $100 per ounce, $1,500 seems very high to me. What is the fundamental price of gold so that I can figure this out. What is the price earnings ratio of a bar of gold?


The fundamental price of gold is determined by money supply...Gold and silver will account for the explosion in money printing. The EU crisis only strengthens the metal bull market and I'll keep stacking as the price drops.
Your biggest mistake is pricing gold in fiat dollars. Compare it to the price of oil or a commodities index, and interesting things start to appear. 

The figures suggest that the "fundamental" gold price could even be as high as $15,000/oz if it accurately corrects for all money printed by the federal reserve since the last bust in 1980 (which it has done several times already through history). 

Even more insane than $15k/oz gold is that based on the 1980 16:1 ratio of gold:silver (and in many other historical examples), one could expect silver to be $1000/oz on that day. 

Even at $50/oz silver and $2000/oz gold, these metals are undervalued with what is coming.... I completely agree with what $1600goldby2011 is saying and would change my name to $500silverby2016 if I knew how 

That's not tin foil on my head, look more carefully, it's silver!


----------



## screwjack

I agree with Mike59. It is simply futile to price gold in toilet paper. When the confidence in the fiat system collapses, only the sky is the limit. However, if that's the case, "gold price" is no longer relevant as gold and other hard assets become de facto currencies.
The way I see the whole thing is that gold is nothing more than a hedge. It's a hedge against stupidities of governments, and the price of gold is how much people are willing to pay for this hedge, much like a premium of an insurance policy. So whether it's fairly priced depends on what's your expectation for the future. If and when the **** really hits the fan, your gold will provide you something to live on while your 0s and 1s in your bank accounts become meaningless.


----------



## ddkay

I think you guys are misinterpreting gold price, there is no luck or unlucky, there is no manipulation, you made a decision and it was either a good one or a bad one. A position is either red or green, why it is either is up to you to figure out... Confidence in the fiat system won't collapse because the deflation you're all anticipating is uber bullish for reserve currencies.

You know the saying the dollar has lost 90% of its value since Bretton Woods, that's because the value was transferred to assets and multiplied through the fractional reserve system via credit, which created all our wealth... The recent US dollars demise was only exacerbated in the last decade because of hyper-globalization, the rise of emerging markets. As emerging economies strengtheneed, they got access to more credit--this growth is only possible in a fiat system. You can't grow economies or "print money", as gold bugs like to say, in a gold based monetary system, that's why we moved away from it. A nation like Brazil has created about $2.7 trillion of wealth via credit in the last 10 years. Strength in domestic economies translates to strength in domestic currencies, so as confidence grew they shifted away from using the US dollar. If you took a taxi in Brazil 20 years ago, they would have preferred payment in US dollars over the domestic currency, now they will only accept in real. The more US dollars are taken out of circulation, out of reserves and piled into assets, the more the US dollars value drops. It's really that simple. Now we have the reverse, slowly bank runs are happening in Europe (ECB reports confirm this), people are taking out cash, banks are selling assets and scrambling for cash to raise capital and remain solvent, there is less lending that can reasonably occur that can grow the economy, and the extent to which that continues is debatable.


----------



## KaeJS

screwjack said:


> When the confidence in the fiat system collapses, only the sky is the limit. If and when the **** really hits the fan, your gold will provide you something to live on while your 0s and 1s in your bank accounts become meaningless.


I don't see this ever happening.

I think people put too much faith into gold.

Just saying.


----------



## screwjack

KaeJS said:


> I don't see this ever happening.
> 
> I think people put too much faith into gold.
> 
> Just saying.


Me neither. But that's what insurance is for (in this case, gold). It provides a hedge, however unlikely the outcome is. Obviously the price you pay for it make a huge difference.

I wouldn't say people puting too much faith into gold, but rather people having too little confidence in the system, i.e. fear of the people pushes up gold price.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

OptsyEagle said:


> What is the price earnings ratio of a bar of gold?


Actually we know the "e" part. It is negative because it costs money to store and insure.

I personally think there is a very good explanation for why gold went up. The introduction of ETFs made it very easy to own it in portfolios. And with low asset returns coinciding with the launch of gold ETFs, investor demand just exploded. If investor sentiment turns, watch out because the ETF demand we've seen can just as easily turn into ETF supply.


----------



## KaeJS

^


----------



## el oro

OptsyEagle said:


> Would it? Why is $10,000 such a high price and not $1,500. Compared to $100 per ounce, $1,500 seems very high to me. What is the fundamental price of gold so that I can figure this out. What is the price earnings ratio of a bar of gold?


Why is $10k high? Your typical parabolic rise at the end of a commodity bull run is a doubling or more in price in 12 months or less. Either this gold bull run will have to last longer than I expect or the parabolic rise at the end will have to be a quadruple rather than a double. It nearly achieved a quadruple in that time frame 30 years ago so who knows how this one will end. Gold is just playing catch up now and will likely overshoot to the upside as all markets do. Why would this time be any different? Sure, gold could plummet to $100 from here and stay there for decades but it's a risk that I can afford.

Of course the answer to your last question is that PE(Au bar or any other commodity) = #DIV/0!


----------



## Mike59

CanadianCapitalist said:


> If investor sentiment turns, watch out because the ETF demand we've seen can just as easily turn into ETF supply.


A crash in SLV/GLD is exactly what is needed to clean up this market. 

IMHO, this would actually stimulate a rise in the price of physical metal. There are already 2 separate markets for physical and paper with entirely different characteristics. I can't purchase physical metal for anywhere at spot, it's always 15-20% over spot, that is a hugh strike against the ETF already and sign of what is to come. 

How sustainable is it for banksters to write paper promises to deliver 10 x the supply of the entire world metal market?


----------



## ddkay

GLD buys 400 oz bars, there is no mark up on those they pay spot price and storage expenses are covered by ETF fees


----------



## OptsyEagle

Every point everyone makes seem correct and logical. The only problem I have with gold is the fact that it has no inherent value. It is impossible to price. All anyone can point to is it is undervalued when compared to pork rhines or moth balls or whatever. If you make the base price as of May 19, 1947 or some such date, it has underperformed the growth of $US or inflation or interest rates or the unemployment rate of Tibet.

None of it leads to any concrete determination of value. Why is $1,500 the right price. Why not $500 or $2,500? The price now is $1,500 and most gold bugs say: buy it, its going up. Would they say the same thing if the environment was the same but the price was $3,000 per ounce? $5,000 per ounce? $25,000 per ounce. I don't see how they could say anything else if all they look at is the environment and nothing fundemental. By the way, comparisons to other assets is not a fundemental comparison, it is a relative comparison.

Anyway, if the Europeans ever got their house in order (which they inevitably will some day) and if a person could ever get 5% or more on their savings accounts (which I suspect they will some day), I doubt as many people would be as happy to hold gold, as they are today. Unfortuneately the price of gold will move down long before those parameters are ever reached or even imagined.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Mike59 said:


> IMHO, this would actually stimulate a rise in the price of physical metal. There are already 2 separate markets for physical and paper with entirely different characteristics. I can't purchase physical metal for anywhere at spot, it's always 15-20% over spot, that is a hugh strike against the ETF already and sign of what is to come.


That's not quite true. Yes, you do pay a premium to buy physical metal. For example, J&M spread on 1 oz gold bars is 2.1%. In other words, you'll pay $17 to buy 1 ounce which currently is around $1,700. That may not be as good as $10 to buy or sell GLD but hardly way out of line.


----------



## andrewf

The advantage of GLD/IAU is that they have economies of scale. The spreads they pay on gold are tiny compared to what retail investors face, and they have serious buying power when it comes to storage costs. Actually, the fund doesn't actually buy any gold. It accepts gold deposits in exchange for units of the fund. It is the market makers or other participants that have to worry about bid/ask spreads on the physical metal.


----------



## dogcom

OpstyEagle you mention May 1947 to base the underperformance of gold which is just after the world had fixed itself from the last financial disaster.

We are now in a new financial disaster to clean up the paper money, fiat currency and debt mess. The US will be the next disaster after everyone realizes it is broke and need to flee the US dollars into probably gold and silver because they at least can't be manipulated to the same degree as paper can. During the depression Homestake mining did great. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html

During the 70's inflation scare gold stocks and gold also did great because gold is considered money. When you think your paper is going to become worthless or you are scared of its value then you will need some sort of alternative. So gold is not really linked directly to inflation but more to a fear of disasters to come.


----------



## OptsyEagle

dogcom said:


> OpstyEagle you mention May 1947 to base the underperformance of gold which is just after the world had fixed itself from the last financial disaster.
> 
> We are now in a new financial disaster to clean up the paper money, fiat currency and debt mess. The US will be the next disaster after everyone realizes it is broke and need to flee the US dollars into probably gold and silver because they at least can't be manipulated to the same degree as paper can. During the depression Homestake mining did great. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html
> 
> During the 70's inflation scare gold stocks and gold also did great because gold is considered money. When you think your paper is going to become worthless or you are scared of its value then you will need some sort of alternative. So gold is not really linked directly to inflation but more to a fear of disasters to come.


and what price should a person pay for all that?


----------



## dogcom

I don't think anyone knows what the price should be other then own it instead of paper or as insurance against paper.

I think when a penny gold miner is a buy because they answered the phone showing they are still in business then you know the end of the gold bull market is here.


----------



## doctrine

> I'd by in at the cost to get it out of the ground. Nothing more than that.


^^ Concur. What does it cost a typical miner? $400/oz? I'd actually pay that plus a 10-15% profit margin. But nothing justifies a 200% profit margin. Overpriced. Even more so for silver.


----------



## screwjack

dogcom said:


> I don't think anyone knows what the price should be other then own it instead of paper or as insurance against paper.
> 
> I think when a penny gold miner is a buy because they answered the phone showing they are still in business then you know the end of the gold bull market is here.


If you buy it as an insurance, then you should be able to calculate the price, as least the price you are willing to pay for it, and it is largely depending on how likely you think the outcome will materialise. Obviously you wouldn't want to spend your whole net worth on an oz of gold, just like you wouldn't want to spend 100k per year on your car insurance.

Extracting cost isn't a good way to determine the price of gold as it is essentially a historical cost. If the mining companies negotiated the leases/contracts today with the local governments, it would obviously push up the cost, to be in line with today spot price.

Gold, like many other commodities, is nothing more than a bunch of elementary particles bonded in a particular way. Given enough money/energy/technology, one can create it with carbon.


----------



## OptsyEagle

screwjack said:


> Given enough money/energy/technology, one can create it with carbon.


I have no direct knowledge of this but knowing human behaviour, and knowing the world has enough money, energy and technology to go around, and of course knowing the payoff is a big pot of gold, I would imagine that if this could be done ... it would already have been done. It would have to be easier then going into a big dark hole to find it.

Gold is a single element so I would doubt a chemical reaction could create it.


----------



## andrewf

Making gold from carbon would require sophisticated fusion technology that we don't have, and won't have for some time. Even if we did, it would cost a lot more to produce an ounce of gold this way than to dig it up.

More probable is that someone goes out and finds an asteroid with a significant gold content, and ships it back to earth.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

What's a "fair" price for an ounce of gold?

A decent set of threads.

2000 years ago during the Roman Empire days an ounce of gold would buy you a pair of sandals and a nice toga and perhaps a belt.

In 1975 gold was at $100/ounce and a really nice suit from a retailer like Eatons ran about the same.

In 2011 gold is at around $1700. For example, Holt Renfrew's black wool 2-button suits are about $1100. So gold is somewhat overpriced at the moment.


----------



## screwjack

OptsyEagle said:


> I have no direct knowledge of this but knowing human behaviour, and knowing the world has enough money, energy and technology to go around, and of course knowing the payoff is a big pot of gold, I would imagine that if this could be done ... it would already have been done. It would have to be easier then going into a big dark hole to find it.
> 
> Gold is a single element so I would doubt a chemical reaction could create it.


It can't be done with just simple knowledge of chemistry as it involves transforming one element to another. (Chemistry is all about the arrangement of electrons.) But it can be done and has been done, albeit each time only at a small quantity because it requires huge amount of energy (hence money). Just look at the periodic table. All the elements at the end are artificially created and do not exist naturally.
So put it bluntly, eventually gold is just like our lovely fiat.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

You can also take Tungsten, which has almost exactly the same density, and plate it with a gold veneer. 

It's been done, so buyer beware


----------



## screwjack

dotnet_nerd said:


> You can also take Tungsten, which has almost exactly the same density, and plate it with a gold veneer.
> 
> It's been done, so buyer beware


"Almost exactly the same" isn't good enough, it can only fool the gullibles.


----------



## dotnet_nerd

screwjack said:


> "Almost exactly the same" isn't good enough, it can only fool the gullibles.


Yes it is good enough. 4 decimal places good enough to fool many an expert.

Gold=19.3 g/cm3
Tungsten=19.25 g/cm3

A brick of Tungsten differs in dimensions by only 0.0017%


----------



## screwjack

Then they are no experts after all.

But yea I get your point.


----------



## screwjack

andrewf said:


> Making gold from carbon would require sophisticated fusion technology that we don't have, and won't have for some time. Even if we did, it would cost a lot more to produce an ounce of gold this way than to dig it up.
> 
> More probable is that someone goes out and finds an asteroid with a significant gold content, and ships it back to earth.


Yes that is indeed more probable, and it is yet another way to put a nail to the coffin of those gold bugs at the end.
BTW, it has happened before, specifically to silver when the Spaniards floated Europe with their newly mined silver from South America.


----------



## Spidey

Anyone heard of MNT, the exchange traded receipt issued by the Royal Canadian mint? Here is Norman Levine's comments: "Exchange traded receipts? This allows you to buy physical gold that is held at the mint. Management fee to own it is way less than buying an ETF. If you want to own gold, this is an excellent product."

Anyone know about this product? I checked the Royal Canadian mint site and I can't find much information. What is the difference between an exchange trade receipt and an exchange traded fund? Anyone know the MER on this product? Is this a suitable alternative to GLD (the ETF)?


----------



## leoc2

follow this link

http://www.reserves.mint.ca/Home/About


----------



## Spidey

leoc2 said:


> follow this link
> 
> http://www.reserves.mint.ca/Home/About


Thank you. Sounds like a reasonable alternative to GLD. The MER is .05% lower and one doesn't have to deal with currency exchange. That all being said, I don't know that now is the optimal time to invest in gold but it seems to be a good product to keep in mind.


----------



## Lephturn

Spidey said:


> Thank you. Sounds like a reasonable alternative to GLD. The MER is .05% lower and one doesn't have to deal with currency exchange. That all being said, I don't know that now is the optimal time to invest in gold but it seems to be a good product to keep in mind.


Beware - this thing is no where near as liquid as GLD. Average volume of about 185,000 shares. That's not much. It's also not optionable and it looks like it just started trading the end of Nov.

Now in 6 months or a year when this thing gets some history behind it, gets more volume, and has options listed on it I'll take a look again.


----------



## Mike59

IMHO paper gold like GLD is useful only for short term trades and market timing, which is very difficult with metals. Regarding mint, it's all about who you want to trust.

The University of Texas endowment fund demanded physical delivery of $1 billion in gold earlier this year thanks to Kyle Bass, who makes a good argument for owning physical : http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertl...ment-holds-1-billion-gold-5-of-its-portfolio/

In this day and age, if you don't hold it, you don't own it


----------



## Lephturn

Of course they don't have the physical gold either - it's at a bank in New York. If everything goes to hell and you actually need physical gold I think you'd be better off with guns and food!


----------



## Spidey

I've heard that you can actually arrange to collect the physical gold from the mint if you hold MNT receipts. I do agree, however, that the liquidity is a concern.


----------



## Mike59

zylon said:


> RBC Global Precious Metals-D
> 
> Dec 23, 2011
> $10 cap gain distribution
> reinvestment price $47.754


Why such a big payout? Was it a return of capital? 

Even then, this makes no sense considering it was a down year for most gold mining equity funds?


----------



## webber22

In 2010 there was also a big capital gain. The fund has lost almost 2 full years of growth

Date NAVPS Dis CapGains

YTD	63.03
2010	76.61	9.58	9.58	--- --- --- ---
2009	49.43	2.00	2.00	--- --- --- ---
2008	31.04	--- --- --- --- --- ---
2007	42.05	0.75	0.75	--- --- --- --


----------



## zylon

*January 23, 2012*

*India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. *
Oil and gold markets stunned 



> By trading in gold, New Delhi and Beijing enable Tehran to bypass the upcoming freeze on its central bank's assets and the oil embargo which the European Union's foreign ministers agreed to impose Monday, Jan. 23. The EU currently buys around 20 percent of Iran's oil exports.
> 
> The vast sums involved in these transactions are expected, furthermore, to boost the price of gold and depress the value of the dollar on world markets.
> http://www.debka.com/article/21673/


----------



## HaroldCrump

^ very interesting.
Iran has been steadily converting their forex reserves into Gold since 2009 I believe.
Not sure what % they are at.
But of course Iran would be more than happy to help support any initiative by whoever to undermine the status of the USD as the international settlement currency.

What is slightly surprising is why India is willing to trade its gold reserve, which is getting more and more valuable for them since their currency is fast becoming worthless.
Why are they willing to part with their gold instead of their worthless paper?
They must be getting a really sweet deal on the oil.
Maybe Iranian sweet crude is good enough to eat.


----------



## Argonaut

Gold is great, gold is good.. let us thank it for our food. Amen.


----------



## Miser

Argonaut said:


> Gold is great, gold is good.. let us thank it for our food. Amen.


You can sure buy a lot of food with an ounce of it......and that's great.....if ya bought gold!


----------



## fatcat

zylon said:


> *India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. *
> Oil and gold markets stunned


i'll be interested to see how they do this with a million barrels a day which is 100 million in dollars and about 2 tons of gold ..

will they drive trucks across the mountains or trade certificates ?

assuming they use certificates will that then create a defacto gold backed currency ?

2 tons of gold per day

how inconvenient ...


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> i'll be interested to see how they do this with a million barrels a day which is 100 million in dollars and about 2 tons of gold ..
> 
> will they drive trucks across the mountains or trade certificates ?


The gold will be settled via some common clearing bank, usually in Switzerland or London.
Physical transfer of gold doesn't take place these days any more, although it was common before the 1900s.
Also, it is only the balance of payments that will be settled this way i.e. India may be exporting other stuff to Iran while importing oil and only the net balance will be settled this way.



> assuming they use certificates will that then create a defacto gold backed currency ?


If more countries jump in then yes.
I'm sure Russia will be more than willing, but not so much China and Japan.
It is in China's interest to maintain a strong USD and EUR.
At least for now - while they accumulate stocks of gold, commodities and other hard assets like oil/gas fields.


----------



## zylon

*1,692*

I haven't been keeping up with the news.

What happened
did a turkey squat on the red button?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wow, thanks for this post Zylon. I was not following gold today, but you just made me realize my ELD stock went up over .40 cents just in the last few minutes. 

I changed my price on time, thank you!


----------



## ddkay

FOMC meeting, ZIRP was extended from July 2013 to December 2014 - stock indexes had the same reaction


----------



## Toronto.gal

For latest breaking news, all we need is CMF.


----------



## zylon

You're welcome T-O.gal

my xgd.to order didn't get filled,
perhaps just as well;
PM allocation likely rose 1%
all by itself


----------



## fatcat

ok, gold up $37.50 after the fed has essentially said "we are so confident inflation is under control that we will hold rates down another year"

come on goldbugs, tell me what i'm missing here ..


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> ok, gold up $37.50 after the fed has essentially said "we are so confident inflation is under control that we will hold rates down another year"


What he is saying is that they are trying really really hard to create inflation to offset the contraction in real GDP, but it's not working too much right now 

So he needs a little more time to create more inflation.


----------



## humble_pie

cat there are them as says gold rises when interest rates decline because the cost of keeping it in inventory goes down.

then there are them as says gold falls when interest rates decline because deflation is coming, not inflation.


----------



## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> cat there are them as says gold rises when interest rates decline because the cost of keeping it in inventory goes down.
> 
> then there are them as says gold falls when interest rates decline because deflation is coming, not inflation.


 right pie, count me in with the deflationistas ... 

it seems to me the fed has essentially been right so far, i.e. their qe's have not stoked inflation and deflation is still a much greater worry ...

i see the entire developed world trying to unwind their debt which is deflationary not inflationary (assuming they don't crank up the presses which so far they haven't been inclined to do)

i am rolling the dice that better gold buying opportunities are ahead


----------



## ddkay

From zero hedge: Year-to-date, Gold is up an impressive 9.4%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 at +5.6% and the disappointing 2% loss (in price) for the 30Y bond

The gold trade is back


----------



## newbie

ddkay said:


> From zero hedge: Year-to-date, Gold is up an impressive 9.4%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 at +5.6% and the disappointing 2% loss (in price) for the 30Y bond
> 
> The gold trade is back


indeed
but soon due for a retracement.
yhe major lift was given today by Mr. Ben with his inflationary measures.
maybe after retesting the 1750 area?
it is anyones guess .
same with silver.
trying to claw its way back to 34 bux


----------



## Miser

Long term I see inflation.....good for gold. When?
How does the US and most countries deal with debt.
Stop paying social security, pensions, medicare? Austerity?
Not politically palatable.
Too many countries addicted to debt.

Some time the "path of least resistance" will be to inflate out of debt.
The presses will roll, and really roll.
Rates are remaining low so as to roll over bonds and T-bills at a lower rate.
Still massive debt obligations will not be met and money will be printed.

I am looking at GLD Call LEAPS Jan14......awaiting an entry point.


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> right pie, count me in with the deflationistas ...
> 
> it seems to me the fed has essentially been right so far, i.e. their qe's have not stoked inflation and deflation is still a much greater worry ...


I have never bought the whole deflationary fear mongering by the Fed, and our own central bank.
It was clear back in early 2009 when the first QE was announced what the underlying strategy is.

I think we had those discussions on CMF and back then I was posting that inflation is the goal, and it will be achieved through massive expansion of money supply in the economy.

GDP is not down because of lack of money supply, so expanding money supply does nothing.

Keeping nominal rates at 0, and real rates well below 0 is only encouraging irresponsible consumer spending, more govt. debt, capital moving up the risk curve, bankrupting the insurance companies, and all kinds of silly asset bubbles in real estate and commodities.

It is also creating quid pro quo responses by other major economies like China, which now have to print even more money to maintain the peg.

This week, the central banks of India and Brazil announced rate cuts.
Up until 3 months ago, India was raising rates - what happened?

India, which is running a WPI of nearly 15%, cutting rates is like a drunk at a bar who's just gulped down 2 bottles of vodka and 2 bottles of Rum, asking for one for the road.


----------



## Argonaut

newbie said:


> indeed
> but soon due for a retracement.
> yhe major lift was given today by Mr. Ben with his inflationary measures.
> maybe after retesting the 1750 area?
> it is anyones guess .
> same with silver.
> trying to claw its way back to 34 bux


Right, I'm hoping that you placed your silver short in. I'm happy to be on the other side of the trade because you seem to be a perfect reverse indicator.


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> I have never bought the whole deflationary fear mongering by the Fed, and our own central bank.
> It was clear back in early 2009 when the first QE was announced what the underlying strategy is.
> 
> I think we had those discussions on CMF and back then I was posting that inflation is the goal, and it will be achieved through massive expansion of money supply in the economy.
> 
> GDP is not down because of lack of money supply, so expanding money supply does nothing.
> 
> Keeping nominal rates at 0, and real rates well below 0 is only encouraging irresponsible consumer spending, more govt. debt, capital moving up the risk curve, bankrupting the insurance companies, and all kinds of silly asset bubbles in real estate and commodities.
> 
> It is also creating quid pro quo responses by other major economies like China, which now have to print even more money to maintain the peg.
> 
> This week, the central banks of India and Brazil announced rate cuts.
> Up until 3 months ago, India was raising rates - what happened?
> 
> India, which is running a WPI of nearly 15%, cutting rates is like a drunk at a bar who's just gulped down 2 bottles of vodka and 2 bottles of Rum, asking for one for the road.


it has always been my understanding that ben bernanke is terrified of deflation ... i.e. the great depression was greatly prolonged by an insufficient response to deflationary movements ... he is terrified of a repeat ... 

harold, so far, i think he's right ... there really are no inflationary pressures on the horizon right now except maybe oil ... even food is moderating down a bit 

if he is holding off (so far) on qe3 it probably has less to do with inflation fears and more with the fact that he's afraid it just won't work ... 

so, perhaps he's doing the only thing he can, which is hold down rates ... and of course, he is pushing people toward risk as they look for yield and this creates a degree of movement in the economy ... 

yes, absolutely, he is trying to create inflation

on the issue of gold again ... why are gold stocks not keeping up with gold ? ... they continue to go sideways

my belief is that this shows an underlying weakness in gold ... i.e that gold doesn't have the legs and will turtle at the first sign of recovery


----------



## newbie

Argonaut said:


> Right, I'm hoping that you placed your silver short in. I'm happy to be on the other side of the trade because you seem to be a perfect reverse indicator.


another wise investor here.
go on and load on silver , right now then
its going to 50 bux right?
keep me as ur reverse indicator lol
do u actually know why is silver up?
nah i doubt it .
ur just another one that believes that all the moves around u are bulish.
by the way , i am not short that one .....yet 
i will post JFYI when i am so u can go long alright my boy?


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> it has always been my understanding that ben bernanke is terrified of deflation ... i.e. the great depression was greatly prolonged by an insufficient response to deflationary movements ... he is terrified of a repeat ...


You are right that he is (or was) worried about deflation.
Whether that was his true, honest, heart-of-hearts worry, or whether that was the excuse they needed to print money and solve a problem which had been brewing for nearly a decade, is another matter.

However, I don't think deflation is the real threat, never was.
I don't think the US would have spiraled down into a deflationary vortex similar to 1929.
Also, speaking of 1929, the recession that lasted from say 1931 until nearly the end of the war, was much worse than the deflation.

What would have been the effects of a mild deflation - a stronger US $ perhaps?
That would have brought in more capital inflows into the US and encouraged more private investment.

The supply of money at any given time must keep pace with the rate of real GDP growth, give or take.
If, by brute force, that balance is disturbed, it is only asking for trouble.



> harold, so far, i think he's right ... there really are no inflationary pressures on the horizon right now except maybe oil ... even food is moderating down a bit


There is lots and lots of inflation all around.
In a global economy, it is not just the local inflation.
Inflation gets exported and imported because of inter-dependencies among currencies.
Developing countries feel the greatest hit, and it manifests itself as social unrest, food riots, revolts, etc.
The Arab revolutions had been brewing for a couple of years - it was the uncontrolled food inflation in those countries that brought them out in the open.

There is huge inflation and asset bubbles in India and China.

I think Europe is making Helicopter's job a little difficult because of the flight to the USD, which is what today's announcement was about.



> if he is holding off (so far) on qe3 it probably has less to do with inflation fears and more with the fact that he's afraid it just won't work ...


He's right - it won't  



> on the issue of gold again ... why are gold stocks not keeping up with gold ? ... they continue to go sideways


Maybe because of geo-political risks, their input costs rising and also maybe because the unit of measure for the stocks (local currency - USD or CAD) is falling in value.


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> Long term I see inflation.....good for gold. When?
> How does the US and most countries deal with debt.
> Stop paying social security, pensions, medicare? Austerity?
> Not politically palatable.
> Too many countries addicted to debt.
> 
> Some time the "path of least resistance" will be to inflate out of debt.
> The presses will roll, and really roll.
> Rates are remaining low so as to roll over bonds and T-bills at a lower rate.
> Still massive debt obligations will not be met and money will be printed.
> 
> I am looking at GLD Call LEAPS Jan14......awaiting an entry point.


Miser.
let me get this thing clear on ur post.
U do not think that gold goes up due to inflationary matters?
just curious


----------



## newbie

Argonaut said:


> Right, I'm hoping that you placed your silver short in. I'm happy to be on the other side of the trade because you seem to be a perfect reverse indicator.


hmmm....
on second thought , dont worry about ur input as to when u are going long.
just tell me why was silver up on friday.


----------



## Argonaut

newbie said:


> another wise investor here.
> go on and load on silver , right now then
> its going to 50 bux right?
> keep me as ur reverse indicator lol
> do u actually know why is silver up?
> nah i doubt it .
> ur just another one that believes that all the moves around u are bulish.
> by the way , i am not short that one .....yet
> i will post JFYI when i am so u can go long alright my boy?


I have already made a silver trade this year which I am up 46% on right now. This is my only move so far this year. Your move was shorting the market which hasn't worked at all. Please enlighten me on why silver is up, because I know nothing about it and have been trading by throwing darts for the past year.


----------



## newbie

Argonaut said:


> I have already made a silver trade this year which I am up 46% on right now. This is my only move so far this year. Your move was shorting the market which hasn't worked at all. Please enlighten me on why silver is up, because I know nothing about it and have been trading by throwing darts for the past year.


keep throwing ur darts my boy.
and no i will not enlighten u my boy.
as for my short trades do not worry about them ok?
just keep using me as ur reverse indicator.


----------



## Miser

newbie said:


> Miser.
> let me get this thing clear on ur post.
> U do not think that gold goes up due to inflationary matters?
> just curious


Yup!

Inflation is an increase of prices due to a decrease in worth of paper(fiat) money.
The more they print the less it is worth, hence people look to other things of worth. 
Gold or other PM's
Au was the original money and will be again.


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> Yup!
> 
> Inflation is an increase of prices due to a decrease in worth of paper(fiat) money.
> The more they print the less it is worth, hence people look to other things of worth.
> Gold or other PM's
> Au was the original money and will be again.


let me see if we r in the same page here.
inflation higher=gold higher.
lets keep it simple


----------



## dogcom

It is not actually that simple gold does well because it is money. Any event that calls into question the fiat currency then gold will do well or hold its own. We are in a negative real interest rate environment and the Fed can't really cut rates very much and everyone has way to much debt. Not a good fiat currency recipe so gold is picking up on that.

Looking back at the last 10 years gold has climbed against a very low inflation environment or so they told us. Gold instead is looking for big trouble and if there is more certainty like the 90's then it just disappears until something stirs it again.


----------



## andrewf

It's pretty crappy money. It gains and loses purchasing power without much predictability. See the long depression in gold prices through the early 2000s. That must have been a very inflationary time for anyone who uses gold as their unit of account.


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> You are right that he is (or was) worried about deflation.
> Whether that was his true, honest, heart-of-hearts worry, or whether that was the excuse they needed to print money and solve a problem which had been brewing for nearly a decade, is another matter.
> 
> However, I don't think deflation is the real threat, never was.
> I don't think the US would have spiraled down into a deflationary vortex similar to 1929.
> Also, speaking of 1929, the recession that lasted from say 1931 until nearly the end of the war, was much worse than the deflation.
> 
> What would have been the effects of a mild deflation - a stronger US $ perhaps?
> That would have brought in more capital inflows into the US and encouraged more private investment.
> 
> The supply of money at any given time must keep pace with the rate of real GDP growth, give or take.
> If, by brute force, that balance is disturbed, it is only asking for trouble.
> 
> There is lots and lots of inflation all around.
> In a global economy, it is not just the local inflation.
> Inflation gets exported and imported because of inter-dependencies among currencies.
> Developing countries feel the greatest hit, and it manifests itself as social unrest, food riots, revolts, etc.
> The Arab revolutions had been brewing for a couple of years - it was the uncontrolled food inflation in those countries that brought them out in the open.
> 
> There is huge inflation and asset bubbles in India and China.
> 
> I think Europe is making Helicopter's job a little difficult because of the flight to the USD, which is what today's announcement was about.
> 
> He's right - it won't
> 
> Maybe because of geo-political risks, their input costs rising and also maybe because the unit of measure for the stocks (local currency - USD or CAD) is falling in value.


i accept all your points harold ... i have no crystal ball ... i do however wonder about gold stocks (which are up again today but not close to their highs) which continue to go sideways ... something is holding them back, i am inclined to believe people (read big money) don't have faith that the current gold price has the legs, it is still above it's long term floor ... when gold stocks start to break out then perhaps we will see the floor in gold ... but i still believe it's capable of turning on a dime at the first hint of good news and dropping like a stone ... then i'll buy some ... or i won't ... or maybe i will ... or ???????????

it IS a barbarous relic !


----------



## dogcom

Andrewf who needs gold during stable times because it doesn't pay any interest so why wouldn't you want fiat currency in that environment. Gold is needed today because we have no solution to the debt crisis at this time. The last time gold was going nuts was during the inflation 70's and was solid during the great depression and today and all were times of great instability.


----------



## Miser

Gold should rise from quantitative easing and the loose monetary policies by central banks that are devaluing major currencies. Historically, gold has responded well to that. 

The news that rates will stay low thru 2014 means the US will be buying more of their own bonds. With printed money.

FWIW: I see a better upside in Au than down.

Mutual funds have less than 3% in gold. If they had say 50%, over the last 20yrs it is estimated those that did would be in the top 5% of top funds.
Wonder if any fund managers are thinking about that?

Great discussion, appreciate the input.....I am seeing some stuff I hadn't looked at.


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> Gold should rise from quantitative easing and the loose monetary policies by central banks that are devaluing major currencies. Historically, gold has responded well to that.
> 
> The news that rates will stay low thru 2014 means the US will be buying more of their own bonds. With printed money.
> 
> FWIW: I see a better upside in Au than down.
> 
> Mutual funds have less than 3% in gold. If they had say 50%, over the last 20yrs it is estimated those that did would be in the top 5% of top funds.
> Wonder if any fund managers are thinking about that?
> 
> Great discussion, appreciate the input.....I am seeing some stuff I hadn't looked at.


long run u r fine IMO, but he what do i know, i just started shorting silver with one position in case it decides to go past 34 bux, doubt it but can happen , been there before .
today was options expiry for the yellow metal so smaybe some profit taking is suitable before weekend.
short term watch the levels .
and i am sure that u know that in case equities tank , they run for the ATM.....Gold.
nothing new here.
inflation + money printing(if it happens) = gold going higher.
GL


----------



## Miser

newbie said:


> long run u r fine IMO, but he what do i know, i just started shorting silver with one position in case it decides to go past 34 bux, doubt it but can happen , been there before .
> today was options expiry for the yellow metal so smaybe some profit taking is suitable before weekend.
> short term watch the levels .
> and i am sure that u know that in case equities tank , they run for the ATM.....Gold.
> nothing new here.
> inflation + money printing(if it happens) = gold going higher.
> GL


I am thinking seriously about a gold LEAP Call Jan14 strike about 160ish
Seems like a decent hedge over 2yrs on gold 
Down or up 20% puts it at at major low support or the top high.
Doubt it stays between the both for 24 months.
Thoughts?


----------



## newbie

Miser said:


> I am thinking seriously about a gold LEAP Call Jan14 strike about 160ish
> Seems like a decent hedge over 2yrs on gold
> Down or up 20% puts it at at major low support or the top high.
> Doubt it stays between the both for 24 months.
> Thoughts?


Miser 
i cant think that far.
no opinions on this one and i am not familiar with LEAP calls.
the only thing i know is that the timeframe is wayyyy longer giving u a much better opportunity of hitting ur strike price.
for ur point above a cal 14 strike price of 160ish seems more than reasonable because i still think that gold is in a bullrun with all the american debt.
as u know i am a beginner in options, and only for NG companies and natural gas futures options i place the odd trades.
my main area is natural gas spreads.
GL


----------



## Miser

Also new into options.....long time self investor.
Like the long term hedge with LEAPS....check 'em out.
In the 'morrow dude!


----------



## Argonaut

I like the metal LEAPS, I've mentioned it was a trade with high probability of outsized returns back in the "2012 Commodity" thread. Silver options are cheaper than gold, and the gold/silver ratio is ever so slightly in favour of Ag right now. This is why I like the silver LEAPS better than gold, and may double my current position if silver pulls back and I'm feeling frisky.


----------



## newbie

Argonaut said:


> I like the metal LEAPS, I've mentioned it was a trade with high probability of outsized returns back in the "2012 Commodity" thread. Silver options are cheaper than gold, and the gold/silver ratio is ever so slightly in favour of Ag right now. This is why I like the silver LEAPS better than gold, and may double my current position if silver pulls back and I'm feeling frisky.


and here i thought you were long silver?
what a change of heart


----------



## Argonaut

I am long silver??

http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=9848&highlight=silver
http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=104966&highlight=silver#post104966

Thinking of going even more long. So long you could call me Long John Silver.


----------



## Miser

Argonaut said:


> I am long silver??
> 
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=9848&highlight=silver
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=104966&highlight=silver#post104966
> 
> Thinking of going even more long. So long you could call me Long John Silver.


LOL...love it!
Loaded with Silver Wheaton

What Calls are you looking at and what strike?
I am very bullish on PM's but when to enter?

Thanxs


----------



## newbie

Argonaut said:


> I am long silver??
> 
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=9848&highlight=silver
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=104966&highlight=silver#post104966
> 
> Thinking of going even more long. So long you could call me Long John Silver.


then u have to know why silver has crawled higher trying to break 34 bux like i said.
and i also said i entered my first short.....yesterday.
i aint a "specialist" in options , but it seems like u are though
still waiting as to ur answer as to why is silver higher?
once u can tell me why then u will know why i am short .... CALL me the short of all shorts lol


----------



## Mike59

Argonaut said:


> I am long silver??
> 
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=9848&highlight=silver
> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=104966&highlight=silver#post104966
> 
> Thinking of going even more long. So long you could call me Long John Silver.



You should've listened to me back in October!  --> http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?p=92917&highlight=silver#post92917

Nevertheless, it's not to late to start stacking physical silver, the world would be a better place if more people did


----------



## Argonaut

Silver was more expensive then than it is today, and definitely moreso than the start of 2012. But the chart is pointing in the right direction now. I don't like physical silver as anything more than a token buy.. 100oz bars are not for me.


----------



## Mike59

Argonaut said:


> Silver was more expensive then than it is today, and definitely moreso than the start of 2012. But the chart is pointing in the right direction now. I don't like physical silver as anything more than a token buy.. 100oz bars are not for me.


There were several opportunities to buy in the $27-$30 in the fall by dollar cost averaging (with the gold:silver ratio closer to 60), I don't see how that's more expensive than it is now? 

Out of curiosity, are your portfolio returns swapping in and out of paper any better than physical silver's 150% return since the '08 crash, or 700% return since 2001? 

It seems to me from market history that during precious metal bull runs it's nearly impossible to beat the gains of buy and hold , I've only purchased physical, CEF.A, or SVR.UN for that reason and wouldn't touch futures, GLD or SLV with a 10 foot pole. But it's up to the individual whether to have fun trading and trusting paper, or let the physical mop up wealth for you.


----------



## Argonaut

I agree buying physical metals for eternal holds are a commendable pursuit. I guess the difference is that there isn't much to talk about. I bought a couple paycheques worth of 1oz Maple Leafs back in August of 2010.. not very exciting to post that I'm still holding, still holding..

I don't know anyone else who trades leveraged metals in person, and I don't think on this forum either. But yes, numerically it has been better than buy and hold for me.. I created several thousand dollars out of thin air trading GLD options last July/August. It's relatively risky and not for everyone, but a good way to amplify returns for the correct bet and multiply a metals position in a way physical cannot. I've made some blunders on LULU and whatnot, but haven't lost money on either GLD or SLV.

700% return since 2001 is somewhat inapplicable, as I started with a net worth of $0 in 2010 after paying my way through university. But yes, I agree with dollar cost averaging into metals with 25% of one's net worth.


----------



## Argonaut

Silver is up 33% year-to-date and at 48:1 is now overvalued in terms of gold. This can continue for a while in a run-up. Would be looking to swap silver for gold at 40:1 or earlier.

I assume newbie got out of his silver short with a $1 profit.


----------



## dogcom

Governments do go after oil and gold companies when they nationalize them or tax them hard in some way when they are doing very well.


----------



## spirit

We have an old tobacco tin that has a few silver coins in it from the 60-70. Might be worth a couple of hundred dollars by now....will hold until the economy crashes and have enough money for a pop and chip out of a machine lol.


----------



## zylon

*more predictions to keep track of ...*

*Ron Rosen:*



Code:


gold:   $3,000+   Feb 2014
silver: $100-$115 Feb 2014
HUI:    1,650     Feb 2014




> This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/21_The_Roadmap_For_$3,000+_Gold,_$100+_Silver_%26_1,650_HUI.html

http://preview.tinyurl.com/csw66fq


----------



## arc

I am on CIBC, are there any Gold/Silver ETFs you would recommend buying now? thx


----------



## zylon

*A bearish on gold, gold bug. hmmmmm ...*

I think US has dealt with Financial Crisis - *Paul van Eeden* 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UqGofE7_LU&feature=related

- for something off topic and not quite so hard on the brain:
YOU HAVE NO RIGHTS - *George Carlin*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWiBt-pqp0E&feature=related


----------



## kcowan

Once again, Gordon Pape offers bad advice for a fee is you like his free stuff.

Recommends a fund with 3+% MER!

He knows how to get rich. Sell your advice to other suckers...


----------



## thenegotiator

how many here believe that silver will break out past 35 bux in the long run?
i am curious as to what cmfer's believe is a possible avenue.
not asking for an opinion .
i am just asking as to why 40 bux ?
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

Gold= retest of 1680 or 1640?
why not
Silver retest of 32 bux or 30 bux?
it looks like it .
like i said 
buy the dips and sell the rips...........I do luv this mkt


----------



## thenegotiator

are we3 there yet?:biggrin:
and that is because hedge funds are long.
imagine if they were short.
dollar down.euro up .
commoditties down except for copper.
pretty interesting:rolleyes2:


----------



## Belguy

Goldman Sachs lowers outlook for gold:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-says-prices-may-be-near-peak/article6000879/


----------



## Lephturn

If Goldman says to sell gold - time to buy it with both hands.


----------



## zylon

^ +1 ^



> *Jim Sinclair’s Commentary*
> 
> I promised you that the manipulators would shift to the long side of gold before the final parabolic move.
> 
> I imagine that Goldman has a huge buy order for special clients, that is themselves.
> 
> When was the last time Goldman Sachs did the world of investment and investors a good turn?
> 
> http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/12/05/in-the-news-today-1389/


----------



## thenegotiator

Lephturn said:


> If Goldman says to sell gold - time to buy it with both hands.


not so fast right lephturn?
nevertheless i am enjoying the range for silver in the meantime.
same for oil.
trading ranges are awesome for trading.


----------



## fatcat

the indian government is telling their people to scrounge for their gold, find it at home and don't buy it ..

i sold my barrick (when it popped above what i paid for it) and don't ever want to hear the word "gold" again
i am fed up with gold equities and think they are moribund for a reason
nobody trusts that gold has the legs and it it getting too expensive to pull it out of the ground and make money on it

it is a fantasy and a pipe dream
it takes only a measure of whatever madness is floating through the air
the fact that is constantly worshipped and promoted by a large army of lunatics is proof enough that it has no intrinsic value at all other than as an armageddon play (at my age i won't survive armageddon no matter how much gold i have)

i will use the barrick money to buy productive assets like pipelines or something simliar
uranium make sense or copper or aluminum all of which makes stuff

i can get plenty of inflation protection through my condo, reit's (especially apartments reits) and equities in general

it IS a barbarous relic and i don't care if it goes to 5000 and barrick to a 100

ps. i do have some silver stacked and probably will add a little more just for fun but gold and i are getting a divorce
pps. i don't think that having gold in your portfolio makes you a lunatic but i do think that the endless promotion by site after site and the tv ads and so on should be a hint that something is wrong here, something doesn't add up


----------



## Argonaut

fatcat, I'm not surprised at your divorce. You and gold have never even been very attracted to each other and always complain about one another behind your backs. You may be getting old, but gold is immortal and will soon find another spouse to take care of her. Barrick, on the other hand, is not as pretty or youthful as she once was, and probably should be put in the nursing home along with Fortis and Thomson Reuters.

Gold has been very lethargic this year, I admit. But yet it's still up 8%. The bull may have run out, or it may keep it's winning streak alive for another 12 years. Who knows. All I know is that gold and its relatives will have a 25% position in my pie chart until the end of days.


----------



## thenegotiator

fatcat .
why so much anger in ur post?
Gold and silver had a real nice run.
specially silver since the middle of the year.
the problem may be the "marriage".
u do not marry to a position .
sorry about ur tentative deal with Barrick, but when the boat is Too heavy it tips to one way right?
it is like the AAPL frenzy.
everybody was holding the darn thing and i assure u that they still are.
I like Silver due to its similarity to natural gas although natural gas has 10 times more volatility than any other commodity in the planet.
just step back for awhile and look at what have you done wrong.
It is merely another instrument for trading.
I personally am learning that tech stocks are not for me at all.
I have no parameters to guide me like commodities do.
that is solely based on personal experience.
cheers


----------



## dogcom

I will go out on a limb and say we are very close to the bottom in gold equities with the kind of sentiment being expressed by fatcat and I am sure many others who have looked at this. We may be in for one more washout but I think that will be it unless everything goes to hell next year and then no stock will be safe.


----------



## thenegotiator

dog.
gold is also a cyclical commodity.
remember that.
i like to trade randgold ( i mentioned that before).
unfortunattely when i bought it i sold wayyyyyyyy tooo early.
u know that i do not hold equities for too long right?
somewhat a bad habit from my side.
take a look at randgolds chart and the tracking relation to gold.
i find it more in sync.
cheers


----------



## dogcom

I have the same bad habit and have traded in the gold space for years. I buy when things are bad for gold equities like now and sell when it becomes to hot along with playing the more seasonably favorable periods as well.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> I have the same bad habit and have traded in the gold space for years. I buy when things are bad for gold equities like now and sell when it becomes to hot along with playing the more seasonably favorable periods as well.


i am not sure if the chart will open but here it goes.
follow the chart and u most likely are following the money.
problem is which miners to buy right?
not all miners are created equal:biggrin:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$bpgdm

somehow i feel like sharing today.
It is my holiday week CHANUKAH
even though you and i always shared ideas here.
GOOD ONES
cheers


----------



## dogcom

Thanks for the chart but usually I will just stick to XGD because who knows for sure which miners are going to do what. If I am really bullish like I almost am I will buy HGU for some quick bang and have been quite successful using tis one for that quick fast cash.


----------



## fatcat

negotiator, i am far from angry
i am free
i have thrown the gold monkey off my back and never have to think about it, read about or worry about it again

there are plenty of good assets left that do everything gold does and do it with better returns and more predictability

that's the real issue here
it's just not a very good asset

real estate and base metals and equities are equally good inflation hedges 
and seeds, bullets and antibiotics are much better armageddon investments (assuming we are talking real or even minor armageddon here ... take a look at soderberghs movie "contagion" and see what people want about 10 days after societal breakdown, it definitely is _not_ gold, it's antibiotics and bullets)

gold returns nothing
is subject to wide swings on the slightest whiff of rumor
if you own physical it's risky to store
if you own it on paper, do you really own it ?

we are all aware that not 1% of the politicians in the first western world own gold ... right ?
if a real crisis hit, do you think they are going to be kind to gold when they as a group don't own diddly ? no, so it's politically risky to own gold as well

there are just better vehicles in just about every category that gold is supposed to be good for

that's the real issue, not that gold doesn't have value, it does as anyone who has ever held it will tell you, it is _beautiful_

it's just that the downside and risk of ownership far outweigh the upside and return as an asset class

there are just better vehicles to put your money in, that's the real issue with gold


----------



## thenegotiator

np dog .
that is only the miners index right?
it gives us a sense of where are these miners in terms of positioning.
both mentioned above by yourself are looking attractive.
why don't you star a position then?
u do not have to go all in right?
if ur feeling is bullish by all means.
I am cautiously bullish atm.
all the steroids from QE whatever ( i lost track lol) is giving these puppies a headache.
i am cautiously bullish oil.
trading a tight range with a floor of 84 bux for now.
cautiously bullish natural gas for the winter strip( very cautiously bullish at the levels we are at )

silver tried to break 32.5 today and did not.
gold is like a zombie infuriated by manipulation IMO.
trade carefully.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

fatcat.
like i said .
maybe i am used to extreme volatility .
i do not own gold per se except my personal jewelry.
on the other hand i agree with ya that there are many other equities assets and trading instruments that can and will fare better than gold.
actually , after inflation and the so called gold bull run , the returns on gold are actually a loss in the long term.
as for bullets and medicine I ABSOLUTELY AGREE.
add to that a lot of canned food (military grade and water.
I will try and watch the above mentioned movie u have referred to.
i wish u all the best in whatever category u pick.
cheers.
there was no pun intended in my post towards ya.


----------



## underemployedactor

Fatcat, I too was never a fan of gold but after a lot of research and thought, have come to the conclusion that 5% of one's portfolio in gold (physical and miners) is prudent.
Most of your rant I find quite amusing, but you lost me here;

_ (assuming we are talking real or even minor armageddon here ... take a look at soderberghs movie "contagion" and see what people want about 10 days after societal breakdown, it definitely is not gold, it's antibiotics and bullets)_
If you really think that a fictitious film offers real world evidence then I urge you to see Skyfall to learn how a middle aged spy and a couple of septugenarians with two birding shotguns can hold off an army of an army of heavily armed psychopaths.:biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

fatcat said:


> i have thrown the gold monkey off my back and never have to think about it, read about or worry about it again


LOL, but never say never fatcat.

Now that you're free of gold, how about thinking about other classes, like pot stocks, and no, I don't mean fertilizers, but marijuana. :biggrin:

Though not approved at the Federal level, the latest to approve at state level, and for recreational and not just medical purposes, were Colorado & Washington. 

Imagine the millions of dollars for the government in pot taxes.

Back to gold: I previously sold all my gold stocks, but will initiate new positions in the near future.


----------



## fatcat

i have the utmost of respect for all of you here, argo, dog, gal and the others .... you know what's best for your portfolio

my understanding of gold is that it is supposed to be an asset that:

1) protects against inflation, and i think there are other vehicles that going forward will do a much better job like farmland (as buffett has famously said) and real estate and apartment reits and base metals

2) is an armageddon hedge when the world literally falls apart in which case there will be much better things to own like insulin and antibiotics and single malt scotch

3) is a hedge against extreme political and currency crisis, if we get a really bad one we might well see gold and silver perhaps not confiscated but trading may become illegal or something similar ... gold is a small amount when added up and isn't enough to use as a substitute to run large economies and is too cumbersome to really use in trade ... it isn't at all clear to me how gold would function in the case of a currency crisis ...in zimbabwe they are using dollars not gold ... i think we are most to see likely to whatever global currency is dominant to be the safe harbor for assets not gold

i just no longer believe that the case for owning gold is as strong as it is said to be 
and the downside risk it presents _overwhelms_ whatever the upside is meant to be 

never mind the constant and endless promotion on the internet and the religious fervor it inspires in people, this alone should give us all pause

the 5% rule looks to me like an old wives tale now

but, it is beautiful (i do own some physical) and it certainly has value, even considerable value, it just isn't a great asset class when compared to other choices

ps. i also believe that NOTHING i say will stop anyone who believes that gold is the place to be, indeed, it's the irrationality around gold that made me realize it is not an asset to bother with ... buffet is right on here


----------



## zylon

*Gold stocks are the most hated sector right now.*










*Thanks to M.H.* 
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt121412.html


----------



## dogcom

Thanks for that Zylon as usual, no wonder you were nominated for an award on the 2012 Year in Review thread.

Fatcat your mind is in the right place for what you want to accomplish so you can't go wrong with knowing who you are.

Inflation though doesn't have to be present for gold stocks to boom higher. During the great depression of the 30's Homestake the Barrick or Goldcorp stock of that day did extremely well as everything else burned to the ground. Gold may get confiscated but at least the gold stocks can be owned with gold in the ground.


----------



## zylon

Perhaps some _infernal_ optimist would like to start a *Shinzo Abe saves the day* thread to counter the popular *lost decade* thread.



> 1/ The election of the new Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, may be a “watershed” event. His powerful commitment to unlimited quantitative easing could fundamentally jumpstart the next leg of the gold bull market.
> 
> 22/ Some analysts have argued that a lot of mining companies have run out of money, and few investors are willing to finance them. That’s true, but if inflation replaces deflation as the global theme of institutional investors, the situation could reverse itself, very quickly.
> 
> 23/ ... At this point in time, hedge funds that have shorted junior gold stocks are probably rethinking their strategy.
> 
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_121812.html


----------



## ddkay

Not too impressed with gold lately, it has been in a downtrend since October and felt "heavy", every rally attempt is followed by steep and sudden selling. I'm hoping it goes to 1750 in the next few weeks & then I will trade in my physical which I've been holding for 1.5 years for electronic which gives me better control for managing it in the long term if there's a crash.


----------



## thenegotiator

and here we are .
silver broke below 32 bux:biggrin:


----------



## ddkay

of course.. right after my post gold drops another $32 and pierces the 10 year trendline :hopelessness:


----------



## underemployedactor

Fatcat, I support any strategy that is based on thoughtfulness research and a deep understanding of one's own personality and risk tolerance. You seem to have given it lots of thought and have your own good reasons for spurning gold, so I say fair play to ya! Given gold's swoon today, I noticed the same arguments being touted for its fall as for its eventual rise, so obviously no one knows anything, as usual. Zylon love those charts.
ps I'm still keeping my 5% in gold old wives tales notwithstanding....


----------



## thenegotiator

ddkay said:


> of course.. right after my post gold drops another $32 and pierces the 10 year trendline :hopelessness:


cmon ddkay
what is another 30 40 bux lower man?
if it happens at all.
1680 level was a given anyway.
same with silver.
book squaring profit taking .
the thing is oversold man.
thin mkt.
it will rise again
cheers


----------



## dogcom

I am not worried at all by a washout I know this bull market is far from over and a big player or players are probably triggering stops.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> I am not worried at all by a washout I know this bull market is far from over and a big player or players are probably triggering stops.


excellent.
nevertheless play it carefully .
i like silver better.
more volatility and higher gains.
mkt is very thin.
if silver hits 31 bux(highly doubt it but can happen with this thin mkt) i am a heavy buyer if it holds.
cheers


----------



## zylon

*dogcom* #645 ; *underemployedactor* #650 and anyone I may have missed;
you're welcome ... just passing on tidbits I find here and there that may be useful.

On $30 down days I feel compelled to buy something, today I bought a tranche of AGI.
A producer with good longer term prospects; has been range-bound for two years.


----------



## zylon

Snip:


> The Central Bank of Russia has issued three values of bullion ... that can be used as legal tender beginning, well, TWO DAYS AGO!
> 
> http://sandeproject.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/well-arent-these-fine/


----------



## ddkay

30 or 40 bucks is everything negotiator, I only own 1 ounce, have you seen the commission retail banks take on physical and forex spreads? You need at least 50$ profit or its a waste of time.

I bought for CAD$1600 in April 2011
I sold for CAD$1614 today (after $5 bar charge & $46 currency fee (1.77% commission on TD US Borderless Plan))

I'm leaving with $12, 0.875% profit after ~1.6 years ... 

Even if you sold the high of August 2011 at USD$1923, after the banks commission you're down to CAD$1860.

If I trade PM again I will only touch electronic.

The world is not going to end, there's absolutely no need to own physical bullion or coins other than to marvel at it. And there's not much to marvel at when it's worth less than you bought it for. :tongue-new:


----------



## bayview

zylon said:


> *dogcom* #645 ; *underemployedactor* #650 and anyone I may have missed;
> you're welcome ... just passing on tidbits I find here and there that may be useful.
> 
> On $30 down days I feel compelled to buy something, today I bought a tranche of AGI.
> A producer with good longer term prospects; has been range-bound for two years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ddkay
> If I trade PM again I will only touch electronic.
> The world is not going to end said:
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry about your lacklustre perfomance.
> 
> Arent you concern about the conspiracy/ rumours that major ETFs like GLD n SLV dont have sufficient beneficial bullion to back up their funds?
> 
> Anyone knows of reputable / reliable bullion dealers/ brokers in Toronto to recommend? I think these may offer more reasonable charges than banks. Thks
Click to expand...


----------



## bayview

Sorry my above quote didnt come out well. Apologies. I was quoting ddkay.


----------



## ddkay

bayview said:


> Arent you concern about the conspiracy/ rumours that major ETFs like GLD n SLV dont have sufficient beneficial bullion to back up their funds?


Absolutely not -- if I was concerned I about that wouldn't touch PMs at all. I have traded GLD and SLV successfully many times in the same period, it's only my physical allocation that felt like a thorn in my side because I rarely have time to bring it in / wait in line / sell it back -- in that way, its extremely more vulnerable to a crash. With electronic trading I can trade larger size (plus leverage) and place stops under technical levels without sweating bullets about not being able to sell it back.


----------



## bayview

@ddkay, I understand where you are coming from. I think the risk of insufficient bullion in the Funds come only when there is a major trading crisis, not during day to day normal trading. Then we will know who is swimming naked when the tides go down. I prefer to diversify within the PM space and like to hold physical as well paper.

I would be happy to Q for you, if you are in my neck of the woods:chuncky:


----------



## dogcom

If you think about it the safest thing to own is the big producing gold stocks in solid countries. If the government takes your gold your done, but I don't think they will bother the gold stocks as much. Also like you said you don't know if the gold is actually there in the fund you own, but we do know the gold companies have it in the ground for the most part. There is also the part where they gold plate Tungsten or something so you don't really have the gold. Then as mentioned there is the storing and carrying problems that a gold mine doesn't have because it is in the ground.


----------



## thenegotiator

ddkay said:


> 30 or 40 bucks is everything negotiator, I only own 1 ounce, have you seen the commission retail banks take on physical and forex spreads? You need at least 50$ profit or its a waste of time.
> 
> I bought for CAD$1600 in April 2011
> I sold for CAD$1614 today (after $5 bar charge & $46 currency fee (1.77% commission on TD US Borderless Plan))
> 
> I'm leaving with $12, 0.875% profit after ~1.6 years ...
> 
> Even if you sold the high of August 2011 at USD$1923, after the banks commission you're down to CAD$1860.
> 
> If I trade PM again I will only touch electronic.
> 
> The world is not going to end, there's absolutely no need to own physical bullion or coins other than to marvel at it. And there's not much to marvel at when it's worth less than you bought it for. :tongue-new:


ddkay.
i only trade paper gold.
no bullion.

silver bottom is not in.
i was wrong about 31 bux.
we may see some short covering buut i think the selling may not be over.
cheers


----------



## zylon

*silver thread among the gold*

So many to choose from;
buy orders filled for *First Majestic* & *Silver Wheaton*










*Note:* I haven't looked at some of these for over a year,
so I don't know if they should be bought; 5 stars notwithstanding.


----------



## Spudd

How about Pan American Silver? That's the one I own. I was up ~10% on it for a while but now back into the minuses. I plan it as a long-term hold so not stressing too much about it. 

As for gold, I sold out of GLD on Monday and very glad that I did!


----------



## zylon

Spudd said:


> How about Pan American Silver?


PAA-T came off my list after the Argentina election (was that in 2011?) due to uncertainty about treatment of miners by gov't. 
Am not sure about specifics - memory fades.


----------



## dogcom

I suppose sentiment must be ultra bearish to the extreme on gold stocks zylon since you last posted it was extremely bearish.

According to Jim Rogers everyone is still to bullish on the price of gold. This is why one needs to trade gold to make money while holding a core position. Even in a great bull market gold is the hardest thing to hold. You pretty much have to ride the actual bull at the actual rodeo to know what holding onto gold in a bull market is like.


http://moneytalks.net/topics/precio...-qthere-are-too-many-bulls-including-meq.html

I suppose as this bullishness burns out the gold stocks could go forward as they often do on the downside or the upside before gold does.


----------



## humble_pie

zylon i did it ! i've been selling bullish put spreads in GG (US goldcorp) for a year now, but today i finally went long in my own fashion ... bought some 2015 $20 LEAPs calls & sold some july 42 calls ... it's another bunch of my favourite diagonal spreads ... max gain is capped at around 22 but the setup cost less than 15.

if my diags don't work out i'll say to myself that it was the fatal combo of zyl's charts plus mayan eve that pushed me over the brink ...


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> I suppose sentiment must be ultra bearish to the extreme on gold stocks zylon since you last posted it was extremely bearish.
> 
> According to Jim Rogers everyone is still to bullish on the price of gold. This is why one needs to trade gold to make money while holding a core position. Even in a great bull market gold is the hardest thing to hold. You pretty much have to ride the actual bull at the actual rodeo to know what holding onto gold in a bull market is like.
> 
> 
> http://moneytalks.net/topics/precio...-qthere-are-too-many-bulls-including-meq.html
> 
> I suppose as this bullishness burns out the gold stocks could go forward as they often do on the downside or the upside before gold does.


no they will not.
miners will have further downside possibly.
if 1630 does not hold dog we go lower and the infalible 1540 level will be retested.
that one i trust .... for now.
by the way i am long USD:biggrin:
do not even mention silver.
that one i will let u do the homework.
cheers


----------



## zylon

dogcom said:


> I suppose sentiment must be ultra bearish to the extreme on gold stocks zylon since you last posted it was extremely bearish.


*Sentiment is never so bad it can't get worse!* :rolleyes2:











> Gold timers are only about 10% long gold.
> There is a real possibility that the next report will show they are actually net short the gold market.
> The mood amongst gold investors now is downright pessimistic. ~M Hubbartt
> 
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt122112.html


~~~~~~~~~~//~~~~~~~~~~



humble_pie said:


> ... if my diags don't work out i'll say to myself that it was the fatal combo of zyl's charts plus mayan eve that pushed me over the brink ...


Happy to take any credit, but none of the blame. :distress:
signed: *Kéchaghe-hot!ínne* (dwells downstream - no drink water)


----------



## zylon

*Snip:*










http://dailyreckoning.com/this-gold-strategy-is-about-to-payoff/


----------



## humble_pie

zylon who isn't downstream ? you'd have to be on the columbia icefield


----------



## dogcom

Reading Bloomberg it says gold falls because of possible progress on fiscal cliff talks. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...s-economic-recovery-budget-deal-optimism.html

If however the fiscal cliff talks go bad gold should fall as the US tries to get its house in order and live within its means.

It really is a bunch of noise and gold will go up after being badly oversold and sentiment is very bad and that will be about it.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Reading Bloomberg it says gold falls because of possible progress on fiscal cliff talks.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...s-economic-recovery-budget-deal-optimism.html
> 
> If however the fiscal cliff talks go bad gold should fall as the US tries to get its house in order and live within its means.
> 
> 
> 
> It really is a bunch of noise and gold will go up after being badly oversold and sentiment is very bad and that will be about it.


dog.
no offense but i expect volatility.
in everything.
traders priced some bad news .
i do not mind the volatility though.
remember that what looks lke a bottom may not be a bottom.
i am trading this mkt very carefully.
i exited my shorts at 32 bux.
not bad considering the manipulation.
i am not long yet on silver.
just scalping


----------



## fatcat

dog, i see fiscal cliff talks and any whiff of success as a negative for gold ... if talks fail, it will only be temporary, some kind of deal will be hammered no matter how ugly

the fed has a 3 trillion dollar balance sheet and housing _is_ coming back, i don't think the bernank wants another qe and even if he did, i'm not sure it would goose gold

production costs and global instability continue unabated

i do see an upside for gold (production and accessibility is shrinking) but at the moment i see a bigger downside

though i guess the long-term case (like 10 years) might be pretty good

but in the meantime aren't there more productive assets to own ?

just being a friendly naysayer here

ps. if silver drops to 25 i would be a buyer


----------



## thenegotiator

fatcat said:


> dog, i see fiscal cliff talks and any whiff of success as a negative for gold ... if talks fail, it will only be temporary, some kind of deal will be hammered no matter how ugly
> 
> the fed has a 3 trillion dollar balance sheet and housing _is_ coming back, i don't think the bernank wants another qe and even if he did, i'm not sure it would goose gold
> 
> production costs and global instability continue unabated
> 
> i do see an upside for gold (production and accessibility is shrinking) but at the moment i see a bigger downside
> 
> though i guess the long-term case (like 10 years) might be pretty good
> 
> but in the meantime aren't there more productive assets to own ?
> 
> just being a friendly naysayer here
> 
> ps. if silver drops to 25 i would be a buyer



FC 25 bux is kinda of a dream though.
28 bux is solid support .
first things first.
so far 30 bux is holding but to me 30 bux is a psychological level.


----------



## dogcom

Fatcat I think Fiscal Cliff unresolved should be a negative for gold in the short run because it implies getting the deficit a little more in control even though it is not. I think a resolution would be better for silver and the stock market and probably the gold stocks in the short run. Gold itself will probably not do a lot here over the next month and get that sentiment to a real low level for a another run to the upside.

I own no gold right now and only gold stocks as sentiment is very low and the stocks are very unloved and oversold which is when I like to buy.


----------



## thenegotiator

silver and Gold.
bearish pattern formation in its initial phase.
u have been warned


----------



## thenegotiator

I warned about the bearish pennant formation.
these boys are not done and yesterday the Fed declared war on precious metals.
.
I hope that whoever bought it sold it immediately after the euphoria run.
this is a traders mkt and u will loose ur shirt if u do not know what regulates the precious metals mkt.
i hope that the bruises on some members here do not get forgotten.
much luck.
i am very very long the USD

i am just a simple guy that likes to share ideas in the futures mkts .
that is all.
i have nothing to gain by posting here.
my only gain comes when another member opposes my ideas and the reasoning behind what can happen .
that creates constructive trades for all of us.
i clearly am a newbie in the tech arena because it is not my area of expertise.
again much luck to all cmfers.


----------



## thenegotiator

gold
103k contracts traded already before pits open :cheerful::eek2::eek2:

silver not so bad ... yet:biggrin: only23.5k contracts before pits open.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> silver and Gold.
> bearish pattern formation in its initial phase.
> u have been warned


A nice warning on Dec.30th. Thank you. 

But now certain already very cheap gold stocks are looking very attractive [to trade & hold].


----------



## dogcom

Very true the negotiator the powers that be want gold and silver kept under wraps because it is dead money to them. They want that money put elsewhere and definitely used those Fed minutes release to put that plan into maximum effect. Gold stocks must be traded as mentioned and like T.gal said they look attractive and I will looking to be adding more. It certainly is hard to do and I have lost some money over the last couple of days, but as we know the best returns to make are the hardest ones to do. 

Still however one must keep powder dry to add more because these guys can really put the hammer down hard and this could be a complete washout and then one of the best buying opportunities of this decade.


----------



## ddkay

This is the extremely violent selling I was worried about, I think its going to get worse but hopefully not. Gold is untouchable for me until it gets back above the 10 year TL and 200 daily SMA.


----------



## thenegotiator

i am impressed with the recovery that happened intraday .
i am being honest.
the asian traders tanked it and the NA mkt bought it back.
there is a fierce fight between the central banks and china has a lot of interest in keeping prices at a certain level.
this is the 3d bounce of a lower low and if the bears do not take a high hand over this then we go higher.
i am with Gs that 2013 gold peaks and if the FED is really serious about removing their hands off the mkt gold will suffer.
for now expect very strong volatility.
i have not seen a pre mkt volume like that in years.
there are a lot of option sellers in the mkt with large puts clusters in the 1600 level.

silver follows gold in a much stronger fashion.
i am trading it on a daily basis only.
GLTA.

p.s oil hit a double top and therefore i would also be cautious being long here.
the double top is 93.82.
strong resistance here.
sellers are here and if that is broken the next level is 100 bux 9obviously not in a straight line unless major disruptions occur)
the mkt covered today for the weekend.
for the commodities traders here expect volatility here also.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Very true the negotiator the powers that be want gold and silver kept under wraps because it is dead money to them. They want that money put elsewhere and definitely used those Fed minutes release to put that plan into maximum effect. Gold stocks must be traded as mentioned and like T.gal said they look attractive and I will looking to be adding more. It certainly is hard to do and I have lost some money over the last couple of days, but as we know the best returns to make are the hardest ones to do.
> 
> Still however one must keep powder dry to add more because these guys can really put the hammer down hard and this could be a complete washout and then one of the best buying opportunities of this decade.


Dog.
T.gal is right and if those stocks are slowly added to ur portfolio u may benefit from it.
i am not saying that gold will drop to 1k bux but if the fed is not only talk i expect the old strong support of 1540 retested.
cheers and much luck


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wow, what a recovery indeed!

Just when I thought EGO might go below $12, it's now back to $12.70, LOL, these crazy markets!


----------



## dogcom

Yeah the Fed wants it down or all over the place so traders can't figure it out and move on to something else. China on the other hand is glad to buy gold at lower prices and dump the worthless US dollar while everyone thinks it is worth something.


----------



## fatcat

dogcom said:


> Yeah the Fed wants it down or all over the place so traders can't figure it out and move on to something else. China on the other hand is glad to buy gold at lower prices and dump the worthless US dollar while everyone thinks it is worth something.


dog, i say this with respect and in the spirit of dialogue ... isn't this a fatal flaw in the fundamentals of investing in gold ? (let me be clear, if it dropped low enough, say 1200, i would buy gold again though not the miners)

if you have to suss out something as occult as the intentions (or lack of intentions) of the fed as a key determinant in the underlying value of the asset ?

shouldn't the sheer omnipresence of the conspiracy theories alone give us pause ?

how can we rationally value this asset ?


----------



## dogcom

I will make one thing clear about the conspiracy theories and that is we don't know when things like fiat currencies will ultimately collapse as every single one does so we trade when it comes to gold. China on the other hand has so many US dollars to deploy they would be foolish not to buy assets including gold and silver while the US fiat dollar will buy it.

As far as the value of many assets we clearly do not know anymore with the Comex paper market to if you could actually get delivery of the metal. Then there is the enormous derivatives market that again is to much for us to know about. In the end you can't rationally value any asset including US dollars or the bond market. The only rational thing one can say is there is only so much gold to go around but there is an infinite amount of paper money to go around.


----------



## fatcat

dogcom said:


> The only rational thing one can say is there is only so much gold to go around but there is an infinite amount of paper money to go around.


fair enough dog ... here are three of my main worries: first, there isn't enough gold to rationally use it as a practical medium of exchange, second, the cost and inefficiency of using gold as medium just will not work in an age of computers ... finally and by far most important, the people who run the world, by which i mean the political class in both the western and eastern world simply don't own gold themselves, they are biased against gold and they make the rules, if all hell breaks loose they will be deciding how to move forward .. they can and will with the stroke of a pen simply outlaw gold as a legal medium of exchange and they will do it in a heartbeat ... your scenario only plays out in a serious full-on global meltdown and i guess i don't think we are going there ... the great depression is a perfect example, the gold was called in and we muddled through ... i don't see anything different playing out ... maybe i am wrong, in that case, won't antibiotics and single-malt scotch be just as valuable as gold ? :chuncky:


----------



## dogcom

Very good arguments fatcat and the only way to protect yourself is with large gold producing stocks as that was the big winner during the great depression. 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/great_crash.html


----------



## thenegotiator

gentleman .
stay alert for the u bee *** roll next week alright?
i am really short on time to debate the unfolding events.
like isaid before expect volatility.
trade very carefully.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

fatcat said:


> dog, i say this with respect and in the spirit of dialogue ... isn't this a fatal flaw in the fundamentals of investing in gold ? (let me be clear, if it dropped low enough, say 1200, i would buy gold again though not the miners)
> 
> if you have to suss out something as occult as the intentions (or lack of intentions) of the fed as a key determinant in the underlying value of the asset ?
> 
> shouldn't the sheer omnipresence of the conspiracy theories alone give us pause ?
> 
> how can we rationally value this asset ?


i may be interfering in ur conversation with dog but u are comparing apples to bananas.
first and i am sure u do know why central banks have gold reserves.
just think and pause for a minute fatcat.
do not ignore gold totally.
u cannot be ahead of the big money movers but u do have ur inteligence right?
GL anyway


----------



## underemployedactor

China's foreign exchange reserves in gold are still less than two percent of its total reserves. Most other countries are closer to ten percent. If they go up to the average they will have to buy something like ten thousand tonnes of gold. Am I wrong in thinking that this is therefore bullish for gold?


----------



## Hawkdog

Ignore if already posted.

http://www.gold-speculator.com/jim-...gold-final-solution-2008-monetary-crisis.html


----------



## fatcat

thenegotiator said:


> u cannot be ahead of the big money movers but u do have ur inteligence right?
> GL anyway


 good question negotiator, i woke up this morning and wondered "where the hell is my intelligence ?" ... 

hey, i love a beautiful gold coin as much as the next guy ... i like silver coins as well .. putting a little gold and silver in the sdb (or the ground for the paranoid among us) is a fine idea but since like everyone, i have a limited amount of money to invest i just can findo no rational way to value gold, none ... it has almost no practical value but its emotional value is huge, that makes it tough to value 

go back and read this thread and make a note of how many people post comments about gold and then offer links to sites that do nothing but follow gold and _whose very existence and entire premise is based on the fact that gold is the supreme ultimate investment of all time_ .. for them gold is a religion and yet they are put forward as sources of useful information about the value or lack of value for this asset

it's like asking the pope if you should go to church 

but please don't misunderstand me, i too love gold, i promise, i do, i really do


----------



## Hawkdog

fatcat said:


> go back and read this thread and make a note of how many people post comments about gold and then offer links to sites that do nothing but follow gold and _whose very existence and entire premise is based on the fact that gold is the supreme ultimate investment of all time_ .. for them gold is a religion and yet they are put forward as sources of useful information about the value or lack of value for this asset
> 
> it's like asking the pope if you should go to church


you can say the same thing about couch potato and divy investor blogs - the religion part.

I agree its hard to rationalize a value for gold. but gold has been valuable for ages, and it will continue to be valuable for a long time, especially as it gets used more and more for electronics as it is an excellent conductor.
Large gold deposits are becoming rarer, consequently mines are harder to replace.


----------



## thenegotiator

fatcat said:


> good question negotiator, i woke up this morning and wondered "where the hell is my intelligence ?" ...
> 
> hey, i love a beautiful gold coin as much as the next guy ... i like silver coins as well .. putting a little gold and silver in the sdb (or the ground for the paranoid among us) is a fine idea but since like everyone, i have a limited amount of money to invest i just can findo no rational way to value gold, none ... it has almost no practical value but its emotional value is huge, that makes it tough to value
> 
> go back and read this thread and make a note of how many people post comments about gold and then offer links to sites that do nothing but follow gold and _whose very existence and entire premise is based on the fact that gold is the supreme ultimate investment of all time_ .. for them gold is a religion and yet they are put forward as sources of useful information about the value or lack of value for this asset
> 
> it's like asking the pope if you should go to church
> 
> but please don't misunderstand me, i too love gold, i promise, i do, i really do


fatcat .
not sure where are u going with ur statements above.
it looks like u felt offended.
u mentioned that u got rid of ur gold stocks.
u got the ape of ur back or whatever.
a losing trade is a losing trade .
that is how i see it as a trader.
u r trying to think that gold has a fair value or whatever.
fair value is "in trading" what the mkt places in front of you.
I will give u a simple example.
my area of expertise is natural gas( at least that is what i trade best) .
IMO NG right now is not trading at fair value .
but the mkt tells me different.
trade the mkt .
do not let the mkt trade it for ya.
that is all i am trying to say.
if u cannot trade and tolerate large swings in sensitive stocks do not trade them then.
much luck.
again no time to elaborate on the history of gold do ur own DD


----------



## Miser

Gold and silver have always been....Money
Still are.
The problem is where are they going from here?

I like LEAPS.....deflation is not what I see.
World economies will inflate.....just when?

SLV....my pick...GL


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser.
atm i see a broken chart.
whether there was a serious short covering lat week the bearish pennant is here.

i do not move mkts of course but my bias is bearish atm.
either way the futures mkt is extremely volatile and one should be carefull.
i would not trade leaps in the futures mkt.
but that is me.
GL


----------



## dogcom

Thenegotiator is right the short term trend is down and very bearish. For me this is the hardest time to buy and that is when I like to buy when it hurts. I find if there is no pain there is no gain. I will probably play it T.gal style and that is if it goes up I will sell some that I bought down here and take some profit and so on. If I am wrong and this bull market is over then interest rates should be going much higher and the QE thing is over.


----------



## SecretHero

As long as World is printing money the gold is going nowhere but up. I don't think QE is finished.


----------



## Miser

thenegotiator said:


> Miser.
> atm i see a broken chart.
> whether there was a serious short covering lat week the bearish pennant is here.
> 
> i do not move mkts of course but my bias is bearish atm.
> either way the futures mkt is extremely volatile and one should be carefull.
> i would not trade leaps in the futures mkt.
> but that is me.
> GL


I feel the long term upward trend is still in place.
I'll wait until the market shows an upward push before jumping in.
Gold has continually gone up in price for more than 13 years straight, and its value has been in an upward trend since the beginning of time. How many stocks can say that?
There IS manipulation going on here.....IMHO


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser said:


> I feel the long term upward trend is still in place.
> I'll wait until the market shows an upward push before jumping in.
> Gold has continually gone up in price for more than 13 years straight, and its value has been in an upward trend since the beginning of time. How many stocks can say that?
> There IS manipulation going on here.....IMHO



Miser 
u are not getting my point.
I said that i believe that Gold will peak in 2013.
i also said that this will be a volatile trade from hereon.
i also said that the UBS roll starts this week and lasts 5 days.
awhile ago i mentioned to ya that i would not short the Euro at the levels that u were looking at awhile ago.
I am long USD.
unfortunately i had to cover my FB short position..... for now.
cheers.


----------



## Miser

thenegotiator

Always appreciate you input.
I have never been a gold "bug" but am starting too.
Some news...

*Japanese pension funds and gold-backed exchange traded products are going to more than double their gold holdings over the next two years to $1.1 billion, buying some 27 tons of gold at current prices, according to veteran World Gold Council representative Itsuo Toshima who is quoted today on Bloomberg. 

His warning comes as new prime minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to push inflation to two per cent leaving Japan’s pension funds no option but to hedge against a weakening yen. Japanese investors have long ignored gold as irrelevant in their depressed, inflation-free economy. That is set to change.*

I see a trend to more pension funds getting into PM's to hedge against possible inflation.
I know that means interest rates rise(bad for PM's) but also bad for currency.

IMHO: The upside is better than the down.


----------



## Argonaut

Hey Miser, check out your avatar. You're a gold bug. It's okay, dogcom and I need some company.


----------



## arc

what is your favourite gold and silver ETF?
Are there stats on which ETF did the best during QE2 /3


----------



## dogcom

We sound like gold bugs Argo but I think we would rather play something else but that is the hand everyone is being handed whether they like it or not. Miser your avatar does look gold bug like to me.

Arc its pretty simple you can own GDX in the US or XGD in Canada for senior gold companies. For the junior companies its ZJG in Canada or GDXJ in the US. If you really feel like you need to push and these you don't hold very long then you can buy HGU or HBU. If you just want the gold bullion then you could buy CEF or GLD. You could also buy HEP if your looking for a covered call ETF for some yield.


----------



## Miser

I used Miser for a handle and the avatar went with it.....ya got me!! lol
Great site.....love the input, esp. the negative things.
I love input!


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser.

lets take ABX as an example of a gold producer ok?
they are in the industry one of the best , if not the best low cost producers from the large caps companies.
it hovers around 560-580 for them to produce it.
why am I bringing that up?
price floor.
nevertheless I emphatically will mention to ya again that any glimpse from the Fed to start changing their policy more aggressively, in the long Run Gold will go down.
nevertheless take a look at the difference between paper trading and CENTRAL BANKS Gold Reserves.
start digging and you will find out who really moves the prices of Gold in the MKts.
cheers


----------



## underemployedactor

thenegotiator said:


> lets take ABX as an example of a gold producer ok?
> they are in the industry one of the best , if not the best low cost producers from the large caps companies.


As evidenced by their superb job with Africa Barrick? Even the Chinese who seem willing to buy just about any resource company walked away shaking their heads.


----------



## thenegotiator

underemployedactor said:


> As evidenced by their superb job with Africa Barrick? Even the Chinese who seem willing to buy just about any resource company walked away shaking their heads.


they walked away because they will get it for less money.
that is all.
Barrick is  a good solid company IMO, although i do trade , when I trade , Randgold.
i said that many times here.


----------



## thenegotiator

like i said.
the big boys are not done.
this 1660 area will be a major battleground. .
if it does not hold.
roll is almost over.
GL to all gold bugs.


----------



## Miser

Definate support area. 1660/1665....hanging tough.
See if the manipulation continues.............


----------



## Miser

Two days later blows thru definate support area. 1660/1665
Sitting at 1684......breakout over 1695 and have some thinking to do.


----------



## thenegotiator

i mentioned in another thread that bulls are working hard to place a bottom on this thing.
my screen on CME shows a close of 1678.7 on the sak.
last trade at 1683.9.

either way if 1660 are a holds ... the bottom for now is in
cheers

copper hourly was oversold.
bounced off to a more neutral zone.


----------



## thenegotiator

Miser and dogcom
if 1684.85 is a double top.
which means that atm 1695 is resistance.
IMO for gold to break out higher u need to break above 1695 .
it probably will go lower.
if i was long from the recent bottom i would probably be a seller here.
how low is anyone's guess.
cheers and keep it up:encouragement:


----------



## dogcom

We are in a trading range which means I will have to play in the range a little and make money that way while I wait for something to happen. I made some good money on silver in the last little while so I will sell half of that and buy back in lower if it goes there.


----------



## fatcat

*Goldman sees gold falling $500 an ounce as rally loses its shine*

http://business.financialpost.com/2...alling-500-an-ounce-as-rally-loses-its-shine/

stumbled on this article and it pretty much touches on the themes that i feel are relevant especially that a) inflation is well under control and b) unemployment is falling, also interest rates will begin to rise which will hurt gold and the fed will certainly not stimulate if inflation does start to kick up



> Our framework for evaluating gold prices relates the real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold to real interest rates and the monetary demand for gold. As a result, a higher rate of US inflation would inflate our forecasted gold price proportionally. For now, our economists view inflation above the Fed’s target as a low probability risk given: *(1) inflation expectations have remained well anchored despite significant expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet,* (2) *the margin of economic slack will only gradually decline given their expected slow decline in unemployment*, and (3) we further forecast that commodity prices will remain more stable than in prior years. Finally, even if higher inflation materializes, its impact on gold prices could be offset by: *(1) US real interest rates rising more quickly than we anticipate if the economic recovery is accelerating*, or *(2) an end to the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion if inflation expectations become unhinged*.


----------



## underemployedactor

Maybe. But massive US annual budget deficits and a national debt of almost 17 trillion dollars? Got to be good for gold long term. Not to mention the demand from the Chinese reserve bank.


----------



## HaroldCrump

fatcat said:


> Goldman sees gold falling $500 an ounce as rally loses its shine


Sounds like time to buy gold again !
This is *Gold*man up to its old tricks again.

They did the exact same thing with the stock of Husky Energy barely a couple of months ago (we discussed that here on CMF).
Since that downgrade, the shares of HSE are up over 15% (from $26 to over $30).

Goldman's MO is either "pump-and-dump" or "trash-and-buy"


----------



## fatcat

HaroldCrump said:


> Sounds like time to buy gold again !
> This is *Gold*man up to its old tricks again.
> 
> They did the exact same thing with the stock of Husky Energy barely a couple of months ago (we discussed that here on CMF).
> Since that downgrade, the shares of HSE are up over 15% (from $26 to over $30).
> 
> Goldman's MO is either "pump-and-dump" or "trash-and-buy"


fortunately i bought husky but not because of goldman  ... 

i agree harold, they are not to be trusted ... 

but the article made sense for me not because it was goldman but because of the arguments they present which i think are spot on


----------



## dogcom

It says by 2018 and we all know that gold could go parabolic and hit $3,500 and back down to $1,000 in that time frame.


----------



## Sampson

the-royal-mail said:


> Wow this metal is on fire. In the five minutes since I loaded the goldprice.org website, the value has increased $2US, going from $1369US/oz to $1371. That's crazy.


Interesting to look back at the OP.

0.14% change is not exactly crazy.


----------



## zylon

*Pacific Group to Convert 1/3 of Hedge-Fund Assets to Gold*



> The Hong Kong-based asset manager plans to take delivery of $35 million worth of gold bars that can be traded on the London Bullion Market Association and other international markets, William Kaye, its founder and chief investment officer, said in a telephone interview on Jan. 18. It has secured vault space at Hong Kong International Airport to store the gold, he said.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...t-one-third-of-hedge-fund-assets-to-gold.html


----------



## zylon

> What’s fascinating is the three-year rising pattern relative to other commodities that emerges when you focus on the bars. Over the past 10 years, gold has risen in position compared with the others for three years in a row, then fallen in relative position in the fourth year before repeating the cycle. Will it follow the same pattern and be in the top half of the Periodic Table in 2013? ~Frank Holmes
> 
> http://www.321gold.com/editorials/holmes/holmes012413.html


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> It says by 2018 and we all know that gold could go parabolic and hit $3,500 and back down to $1,000 in that time frame.


maybe off topic dog.
UBS roll coming up.
stick it in ur calendar.
GL


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> We are in a trading range which means I will have to play in the range a little and make money that way while I wait for something to happen. I made some good money on silver in the last little while so I will sell half of that and buy back in lower if it goes there.


u quoted this awhile ago.
we are retesting the lows just as I said.
what are u going to do now?

hourly is oversold.
remember UBS roll?
GL


----------



## dogcom

Watching and waiting to buy back the half position of silver again. Gold stocks I am now more worried about because we are entering a weak seasonal period.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Watching and waiting to buy back the half position of silver again. Gold stocks I am now more worried about because we are entering a weak seasonal period.


u have a nice hammer today .
let it confirm .
volume is low.
asian mkts are closed
if it does go long .
the range is tight.
as for stocks be carefull what u pick.
GL


----------



## Squash500

gold and silver stocks are just tanking today. XGD down to a 52 week low of 16.50. ABX also struggling around 31.70 mark. Thinking of taking a flier in the XGD or XMA?


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Watching and waiting to buy back the half position of silver again. Gold stocks I am now more worried about because we are entering a weak seasonal period.


i think u should.
and i warned you awhile ago.
I really hope u got out of this liquidation on a well note.
just remember that things are elastic and bottom picking is very very hard.
i maintain my long term position for gold ....bearish.
1540 on its way to be tested.

USD on its way to test 84 and higher maybe.
still holding my initial long on USD.
best of luck anyway
GL


----------



## thenegotiator

and so i ask my fellow cmfers.
is it time to buy gold or silver?even copper?
GLTA:encouragement:

what is it buffett says?
when there is blood in the streets be greedy?
is it time to be greedy?:rolleyes2:


----------



## Assetologist

Not yet for me. 
The patient is only trickling - i will wait for near exsanguination and panic.


----------



## maxandrelax

Looking at the 6 month %comparison chart, G and ABX have trailed the GDX etf. The past week, these two have poped above GDX in unison. Don't know if this really means anything, but the recovery in gold will be lead by these monsters of gold right?


----------



## thenegotiator

max 
what is ABX low since lets take 2003?
around 22 bux right?
now add to that inflation , increase in production costs or whatever.
mind ya that gold is very very oversold .... is a bounce due technically speaking?
of coarse?
will it happen?
i have no idea .... it can .
on the other hand when i see a drastic death cross on something i either scalp it or swing trade it with a very tight stop loss.
there is a lot of very important info com ing into the mkts this week.
GL anyway

p.s i am talking about gold ... the commodity.
as for ABX well if gold goes lower why would gold producers go higher.
that i will leave it up to ya to answer


----------



## thenegotiator

there is ur so much expected rally.
enjoy it.
it looks nice... question is will it last and how far is this short covering going to be around.
GLTA


----------



## thenegotiator

Assetologist said:


> Not yet for me.
> The patient is only trickling - i will wait for near exsanguination and panic.


well
what is the call atm?

so much for printing money/inflation /hedging.
has exsanguination and panic begun ?
look at japan measures ..... more money printing right?
they are in deflation for what 10/20 years?
i don't even know how long.
would like to hear from ya.


----------



## thenegotiator

what is wrong with this chart people?

add a few more studies and u will see.
look at the COFTC and u will find some more answers.
nuff sharing


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p22367084286


----------



## dogcom

Gold and silver are both in a defined downtrend and bear market that will go on as long as the manipulators can keep it there. At some point it could be today or two months from now that the game will end and there will be hell to pay but until then the trend is clearly down and that is the way it is.


----------



## Toronto.gal

That's the way it is indeed dogcom.

*TN:* you said that if the gold price continues to go down, then why would miners go up, that is obvious, but my question is, let's say the price will drop for the balance of the year to a low of $1,200 for example, how low could the miners sink in that scenario, lower than the double bottom of 08?


----------



## fatcat

dogcom said:


> Gold and silver are both in a defined downtrend and bear market that will go on as long as the manipulators can keep it there. At some point it could be today or two months from now that the game will end and there will be hell to pay but until then the trend is clearly down and that is the way it is.


dog, two questions, please expand on what you mean by "manipulation" ? 

i get nervous when i see the term because it seems to me to point to occult factors that are controlling the price of gold and if it is controlled by such forces why would i want to invest in it since by definition it won't respond to market forces and thus i will have no reliable way to value it 

second, how do _you_ value the price of gold ? ... this is a corollary to the first question because it seems to me that gold is valued almost purely on the basis of emotion by many people (including me, i don't have a clue how to value gold)

barrick is knocking on the door of a 3% dividend and would add nice sector diversification to any portfolio


----------



## maxandrelax

Toronto.gal said:


> That's the way it is indeed dogcom.
> 
> *TN:* you said that if the gold price continues to go down, then why would miners go up, that is obvious, but my question is, let's say the price will drop for the balance of the year to a low of $1,200 for example, how low could the miners sink in that scenario, lower than the double bottom of 08?


We have seen every thing fall, good or bad... I would see a true consolidation with the miners. Those that are strong stay put and then rocket. Those who don't have the cash go belly. Rick Rule has talked extensively about this.


----------



## Toronto.gal

That's what I was thinking, M&As.


----------



## maxandrelax

The tough part will be really finding out what is quality as most have all moved up and down in tandem. I currently own big companies and royalty companies. I dumped my spec. small caps a while back thankfully. Those small companies with a tight balance sheet, EXCELLENT leadership and gold in the ground will 20x. Kaminak KAM.to for example is one that I have hear lots of noise about, but wonder if it is the real deal. Don't think I have the knowledge or skills to assess these small comps.

RE: mergers, hasn't ABX stated that they want to focus internally? If quality small comps run out of cash, how quickly will they change their tune?


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> That's the way it is indeed dogcom.
> 
> *TN:* you said that if the gold price continues to go down, then why would miners go up, that is obvious, but my question is, let's say the price will drop for the balance of the year to a low of $1,200 for example, how low could the miners sink in that scenario, lower than the double bottom of 08?


T.gal
today is a typical day that u would see gold up due to the jobs report.
the trick here is to wait and find out if we have a game changer.
i always said that mkts are way ahead of us in any way u can imagine.
copper barely blinked.
as for miners pricing bottom or top ... like i said ... a daunting task.
that is why i prefer my commodities trading .
as u know sometimes i do venture the odd stock right?
tha is all i can say.
the trend is down till it ends.
one day is not a game changer.
we need several moves to be sure that a bottom is in.
GL

just to add my 2 cents.... volume on futures is fairly small which suggests to me a short covering that in reality was due.
we had the 1540 test and now we bounced off of it.
i expect a retest ... when?
do not ask.... i need data to at least try and see where this can happen


----------



## dogcom

Fatcat the PPT is now in every market trying to buy time for the west as everything is truly out of control as seen recently by the bank of Japan. I am hearing lots of noise about bank holidays and such and with debt clearly out of control in Europe and the US it is just a matter of time before the rails fall off the cart in some way. 

Gold and silver cannot be allowed to take off as they kill the fiat currencies and oil has to be kept in check to stop run away inflation. The fed has to keep bond prices low and they can't do that if there is a huge run on the dollar or inflation takes off for all eyes to see. Manipulation is must or the stock market will crash and who knows what else will happen. 

Gold and silver dumped over the last while for no reason which means there is forces at work here I believe. Just look around the internet check out Jim Sinclairs site he has been on the ball with regards to the gold bull market since 2001 and if you look at how it has done since then you can see that this consolidation is normal in a long bull market.


----------



## dogcom

T.gal gold miners can go up as gold finishes its correction as they can forecast future price in the metal. This doesn't always happen like in 1980 if I am correct. I believe in 1980 gold miners had their game ending parabolic run right after gold had finished its big move. 

Back in the mid seventies gold miners went through this kind of crash and you would have made out like a bandit if you had bought at that horrible low much like today. Nothing is written in stone and this could be the end of the gold miners, but it is times like these that you can make the huge paydays.


----------



## fatcat

dogcom said:


> Gold and silver cannot be allowed to take off as they kill the fiat currencies and oil has to be kept in check to stop run away inflation.


but dog, gold represents a fraction of total money invested ... 

GLD has an asset value of 60 billion and it is in the top ten gold holders on the entire planet ... apple sold 80 billion dollars worth of *just iphones* in 2012 ... 

gold cannot absorb the demand for investment vehicles, not even close, it could go to 10K an ounce and it wouldn't come close .. it can't put a dent in fiat currencies ... 

and just about every voice that says that manipulation is occurring is a gold bug site ... 

i do agree that gold is a competing currency (just as bitcoin is) and all currencies need to promote (or demote) their product in order to maintain trust, i don't argue this, bernanke wants to exert his influence over the us dollar for example and peg the dollar right where he wants it (soft)

but gold is simply too small as an asset class, it's puny and cannot handle anything close to worldwide demand for a currency

i just do not get the manipulation argument


----------



## dogcom

Gold and silver head the currency brigade and a fraction of it is used to back a currency. The entire world is fretting over or buying it like Russia and China and we know Germany wants its gold back and now I hear Australia wants it back as well. The problem is the fiat currencies are very sick and they are printing like crazy but they can't print the gold and silver so they become more valuable.

The thing is everything is mispriced either from far to high or far to low for periods of time as bubbles come and go from all the intervention. I am not a gold bug but I see incredible problems out there and they are trying their best to hide it.


----------



## lonewolf

What is the track record of the central banks buying & selling of gold ? I remember reading & seeing a chart years ago showing when central banks had purchased & sold gold thier track record was lousy.


----------



## dogcom

Their track record is poor after the fact. They were selling in the late 90's and gold went down to its ultimate low in 2001 and then the tables turned when they were done. If China and Russia decided to dump their gold slowly instead of buying, then you would see gold fall probably far lower then $1000 over time.


----------



## fatcat

dog, i will sound a note of agreement that we are awash in debt in the first world and that assets are behaving a weird and unpredictable way since central banks now exert so much control over the economy ... i think it not a good situation at all ... un-elected individuals like bernanke sit behind closed doors and can decide peoples fate ... i sympathize with the gold bugs and those who want a gold backed currency but i don't see gold as having the legs to support it


----------



## dogcom

What ends up happening is everyone looks for bullion to escape the chaos if they can and then penny mining companies that just answer the phone will go up in value. Gold will be mined in a frenzy and then the banking system will set up again after the washout and we start all over again and be backed by gold and silver as before and that will be it until the next time. Of course protectionism will reign and wars will start and so on. 

After the turmoil and the bad guys get it we will be back to a very bright future.


----------



## thenegotiator

this thread is getting very interesting but obscure IMO.
as much of a bulishness i would like to have in gold i just cannot find a reason yet to be bullish.
actually i had my head ripped apart today in my own area since i took the opposite side of a bet temporarily.
nevertheless that is how lessons are learned.
costly?
by all means .
had to cover my bet substantially because the same GS that announced a dive in gold price decided to take a bullish ride on the NG train.
that is how fast money works.
nevertheless The more than seasoned traders in Ng will prevail in the end as usual
rest assured that the same way i post how irrational a mkt can be some of the most experienced traders in natural gas that i know today had their face blown up.
dog i am going to repeat one more time .
one day does not change a trend .
gold moved and stocks related to it remained flat basically.
copper was priced and may go lower depending on the next few weeks mkt evolution.
the power that MM money has can be astounding but once it is removed from the mkt it causes rippling effects.
today i am at loss .
just like some of the gold bugs here.
my story is quite a bit different thatn the gold/silver story.
a good friend here told me that sometimes i may sound full of myself .
that is not the inrtent.
i also loose in this game of commoditties.
either way 
GLTY and T.gal u know i do not need to mention it.


----------



## dogcom

Thenegotiator my talk with fatcat is more to do with the collapse of the financial system which we have been in since the housing bubble collapsed or since the tech crash of 2000. Trading is different and I do that and get it handed to me as well. One day doesn't make a trend, I get that and don't need warnings because I take responsibility for what I do. I have been slowly adding gold and silver positions because I believe the bull market hasn't gone anywhere and prices are cheap to those thoughts. To make the big money you have to be there when there is blood in the streets and not get shaken out. If I am wrong I will lose money as this bull market is dead and buried.


----------



## thenegotiator

dog
just take a look at this below... not related to gold.
feel it and tell me what you think.
same guy alright?


Natural Gas Jumps 4.5% on Lower US Supplies
Published: Apr 05, 2013

--Natural-gas futures surge to 20-month high

--Nymex gas settles 17.8 cents higher at $4.125/MMBtu

--Stockpile drop, cold weather keep prices elevated


By Jerry A. DiColo 


NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures surged higher Friday, rising to a 20-month high as investors focused on falling U.S. gas supplies.

Natural gas for May delivery settled 17.8 cents, or 4.5%, higher at $4.125 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gas futures rose for a second straight session, boosted by Thursday's steep drop in domestic natural-gas stockpiles. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said gas in underground storage in the U.S. fell 94 billion cubic feet last week to 1.687 trillion cubic feet.

The decline, which was larger than analysts had expected, also pushed total stockpiles 2.1% below the five-year average for this time of year. Stocks had held above average since September 2011.

With supplies under pressure as cold weather lingers across much of the U.S. into the beginning of April, prices look to be supported in the low $4 range for the moment, according to John Woods, president of natural-gas trading firm JJ Woods Associates.

"We've gained momentum," said Mr. Woods. "This caught a lot of people by surprise."

Falling stockpiles, due primarily to a colder-than-normal end to winter, have been the key factor in pushing prices above $4 in recent weeks.

Roughly half of U.S. homes rely on natural gas for heating, and chilly March temperatures across much of the U.S. have kept demand elevated.

Now, some analysts are raising their price forecasts due to the supply drop. Goldman Sachs on Friday said demand is growing at the same time that U.S. production is holding steady. The bank now expects prices to average $4.50/MMBtu in the second half of 2013.

"The supply outlook is much tighter than people anticipated," said Gene McGillian, a broker and analyst at Tradition Energy.

Still, some investors and analysts are concerned that the latest rally has pushed prices higher too quickly and that natural-gas futures may be set to retreat.

In a research report this week, Teri Viswanath, senior natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas, pointed to data from the Energy Department released last week that showed gas usage by electric utilities fell by 0.6 billion cubic feet a day in January compared to last year.

Ms. Viswanath said that "unexpected weakness" could mean utilities aren't as keen on gas at these price levels, which could mean price declines are ahead.

Because of cold weather over the past week across much of the country, analysts are expecting that stockpiles may continue to fall in next week's data. But forecasts are beginning to show warmer weather on the horizon.

Private forecaster Commodity Weather Group said Friday that "the biggest warming period of the season so far" is advancing across the country over the next two weeks.

"Widespread 60s and 70s are expected through the Midwestern and Eastern cities with this warm-up," the forecaster said.


and now the same guy in march/26


http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/v...natgas-to-plunge-to-285-trade-oils-range.html

that is how MM power is.
GL


----------



## thenegotiator

dog
u are getting me all wrong here bro.
i am not warning u.
i am just trying to make a point here.
its all good .
i do think that at some point a rebound will be due.
entry points are different for everyone.
not trying to be a hardass .


----------



## dogcom

I was caught by the cold weather surprise and covered my bearish bets on Nat Gas awhile ago. I am longer term bullish on Nat Gas but do think a decline should be in order but it is very difficult to time.


----------



## thenegotiator

and how do u trade natural gas if u do not mind asking u?


----------



## thenegotiator

dog
gotta go anyway .... for illustration purposes.
this is the price of natural gas 5 years from now.
do u see a trend?









cheers

GL in ur gold endeavours


----------



## dogcom

Nat Gas is very difficult to call and I still think the long term trend is up for now because I don't believe fracking is going to be all that it says it is.


----------



## thenegotiator

dog.
could u elaborate what do u mean by ur fracking comment?
i am not sure i understand what does price atm has anything to do with the technology itself.
i posted a chart for cal18.
to be more specic F18 stands for JAN/18.
do u actually understand what is happening between now and then?


----------



## thenegotiator

for the gold bugs.
and Gartman followers
someone is bullish on gold.
no pun intended before Harold beats me with a stick lol

http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/i...-but-not-in-dollars-natgas-capped-at-450.html


----------



## dogcom

Fracking I believe is hard on the earth and gas can seep into ground water and depletion rates could be greater then they say it is. Also if pipelines can be built to the west coast gas can be shipped to the far east. The US could get off of coal use less nuclear and more into gas as well as using gas for the trucking industry.


----------



## HaroldCrump

There are some very serious environmental concerns with fracking.
Esp. the indiscriminate way it is currently being done all across the US south west and the PA regions.
The Obama administration is perhaps leveraging fracking as their energy independence strategy, and to reduce the reliance on imported oil (Canadian, offshore, or Arabian).

For all his protestations and pretentions about being an environment friendly administration, Obama is IMO one of the most environmentally dangerous presidents in recent times.
If only his govt. had spent one-fourth of the time on environmental assessment for many of the fracking projects as he is spending on the Keystone XL pipeline (nearly 2 yrs. now).


----------



## thenegotiator

dog and harold.
fracking is here to stay no matter how environmetally friendly one can be.
obama hates coal with passion for one.
with the retirement of coal plants in the next few years growing and with our nuke fleet aging natural gas is and will be a strong source of power generation.
the most modern CCGTS are getting more and more efficient ih producing electricity.
electric needs are also growing YOY.
nevertheless Dog my point about my whole post about natural gas (sorry for hijacking the thread ) is that fracking atm is out of equation for now.
the latest spike is due to multiple factors.
the less rigs we get the more efficient in producing they are getting with fracking.
technology has evolved and at one point raymond James calculated a need for about 600 rigs to keep up with production.
they were wrong.
we are below 400 and producing more gas YOY.
in the end of the day what matters to Obama's administration is the cleaner product that natural gas is.
still GL with gold Dog.


p.s i will add on a short term chart prediction by the EIA .
these things can change very fast.
as an example take a look at their prediction for NG in 2013 and what Goldie just announced on friday.
by the way Goldie is not remarkable in their calls for natural gas prices.
not saying that they cannot push this thing higher but at one point the real bright traders in the industry should prevail.
If they do not i am royally fucked lol.

see below the link

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/tables/?tableNumber=3#startcode=2009&endcode=2014&periodtype=a


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## thenegotiator

interesting article.
i liked it.even though it is posted on kitco. nevertheless u can always find good stuff anyplace at any time IMO.
enjoy

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/20130405.html


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## lonewolf

Thread titled "gold" has over 66,000 views

It would be interesting to chart the increase of view numbers of the thread to golds price.


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## thenegotiator

alright.....
who thinks 1540 will be retested?
i do . but i am sure nobody cares lol ..... if it holds i am in.
will buy randgold.

hya lone ?
whatcha ya think scientiffically?:rolleyes2:


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## thenegotiator

more good news for the goldbugs?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gold...mulus-speculation-_ZF96un3Q~SWti~mvCv_nQ.html

but i thought that stimulus was old news lol.
is it new news?:biggrin:


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## thenegotiator

and then bad news shows up in the screen.
Goldman Sachs in action.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ice-forecast-through-2014-as-cycle-turns.html


now now i dare who is going against this grain .
the pain train is about to leave the station?
stay tuned.
they know more about Gold and oil than about Natural gas.
they know absolutely nothing about Natural gas.
they rule that area with Barclays.
GLTA anyway


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Latest word is that Cyprus is selling their gold reserves, 400 million euros' worth, as part of their bail in plan. This has depressed the market. It may bounce after this clears the market.

By the way you can make fortunes coppering Goldman's tips. They are notorious for telling their customers to buy when their prop desk is selling and vice versa.


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## Toronto.gal

Given Goldman's tip, I say gold will retest their previous high of $1910!


----------



## Hawkdog

bad news today for gold bugs.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11892109/1/gold-prices-slump-as-fed-considers-scaling-back.html


----------



## dubmac

ABX drops below OCT 2008 levels ....(at the height of the financial crisis)


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## Assetologist

thenegotiator said:


> and then bad news shows up in the screen.
> Goldman Sachs in action.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ice-forecast-through-2014-as-cycle-turns.html
> 
> 
> now now i dare who is going against this grain .
> 
> GLTA anyway


I'll take your dare! 
Buying ABX again after buying for $23 on Oct 28, 2008 then selling for a nice double+ and dividends.


----------



## humble_pie

er, wondering why buy barrick? chile just suspended pascua lama. 

it was not exactly "news." The sky-hugging mine on the Andes glaciers has been mired in so many problems for so many years now.

the argentine side of pascua lama is still operating. Since i own abx i'll have to assess how they could manage for a period of time with the argentine side alone.

in the meantime, selling options on barrick is a helpful strategy imho.


----------



## Assetologist

My favorite kind of news - baaad!
I am waiting for another little drop in share price tomorrow before actually jumping in though.
I'm only looking for a small bump up in the next few months as the herd stops stampeding. 
I guess we will have to see?!


----------



## dogcom

Could get much worse as gold and silver break down to a final low before skyrocketing in my opinion. You have to wonder why Goldman would come out with this now just after the Fed minutes and Cyprus is also forced to sell their gold all at the same time. I smell a rat in all this and we are all being herded into something very bad.

On another note the demand for physical Silver around the world has skyrocketed and the physical price is much higher then the rigged COMEX you have to also wonder why that is. Paper is telling a different story then what is really happening out there.


----------



## thenegotiator

Assetologist said:


> I'll take your dare!
> Buying ABX again after buying for $23 on Oct 28, 2008 then selling for a nice double+ and dividends.


do not worry about my dare bud:biggrin:
i know exactly what to buy and when.
convenient call from Gs was it not?
nevertheless i do mean that they know their **** about gold and oil together with Barclays.
i said i will buy Randgold.
but ABX will get very attractive.
anyone here remembers agnico or do u guys have alzheimer"s?
i called a sharp selloff of gold how long ago?
check my posts.
i called the tanking os gold stocks how long ago ?
check my posts.
Goldie just consecrates every call that any trader out there had already in mind.
the last one was last friday on natural gas.
now i ask u assetollogist am i short or long natural gas?
that bud i deffiniitely will not tellya.
i posteed already though that on friday my initial trade blew right in my face.
maybe i am just lucky?:biggrin:

forgot to mention that i am lond the USD index since it was trading at the 79 mark and sold half a position.
like i said to T.gal in another post.
this is a tough crowd here.
just remember that the trend is always ur friend .... till it ends.
i asked u in this same post.
exsanguination was finished or not?
did u bother answering ?
no.
therefore to me it means that u had no call on where exsanguination ends.
try and find a bottom.


----------



## thenegotiator

make it 2k by yearsend then... :encouragement:


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## dogcom

Some more crap that was used to drive down the price of gold in a desperate bid to get it down.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitcone...person-says-523mln-gold-sale-never-discussed/

Things are getting more and more desperate and we all need to worry and the price of gold will be the least of our worries.


----------



## dogcom

Something really strange is also going on at the COMEX as inventories of gold and silver are being drained and put into the hands of the owners.

http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2013...es-collapse-by-largest-amount-ever-on-record/

http://maxkeiser.com/2013/04/11/30-...n-from-comex-vaults-in-2-days/comment-page-1/


----------



## dogcom

Slam this is hitting me hard but I see this as the opportunity of a lifetime or the game is over. We could see $20 silver and $1,400 gold here or lower as the beating continues or indeed it is truly over and the monetary easing around the world is meaningless to commodities but great only for the stock market.

Goldman is right and we should have sold short as the story goes so far.


----------



## Toronto.gal

What a sell-off, or should I say what a month!

ABX has been the hardest hit, dropping more than -20% since just April 1st [$29.50/$23.40].

After reaching a high of $1,617 just 3 weeks ago, gold is now at $1,491.40.

So glad I went for the mid-caps in this particular sector. -20% of $30 is far worse than same percentage drop of a $10 stock [-$2 vs. -$6]. I'm actually down -13% as of now.

I was figuring a worse case scenario of a -50% drop [stock price], in addition to the previous nauseating decline, but not really believing we would achieve today's numbers. Never say never!

*dogcom:* yes, lifetime opportunity with the right stock.


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> What a sell-off, or should I say what a month!
> 
> ABX has been the hardest hit, dropping more than -20% since just April 1st [$29.50/$23.40].
> 
> .


Yes, didn't think we would see it this low but ABX has it's own problems apart from gold, not touching it yet but tempted.
Put a limit order today on G to average down, will see if it get filled.

With everything else being so high one would think that with miners you can pick and choose at will with their levels right now, I have sold recently number of positions like CSCO and Norfolk Southern to raise some cash.


----------



## Barwelle

Tgal, I have to ask about your math... I would say that -$6 on a $30 stock is the same thing as -$2 on a $10 stock. If you put $3000 into each, and they drop 20%, you lose $600 no matter what the price of the stock is... What's the difference?


----------



## Toronto.gal

Some people never get me, LOL. Yes, I know what 20% of any amount is, so my math is fine [i think]. :encouragement:

100 sh @ $30 = investment of $3,000
100 sh @ $10 = investment of $1,000

I rather lower my cost of a $1,000 investment by investing an additional $2,000 [in tranches ofc], than increase a $3,000 investment to $9,000 for same purposes, particularly when I don't buy low volume to begin with.


----------



## humble_pie

so far i am not having too much difficulty slapping down my treacherous fingers whenever they start to creep towards tapping out a buy-gold-stock on the order entry screen.

i remind my itchy fingers of how gold & gold stocks tend to lay low for years & years on end. How, after breX in 1996 for example, the bottom fell out & stayed out until the early 2000s. AU basically went nowhere for nearly 6 long years.


----------



## Barwelle

Okay, but then why do you base your investment/tranche on # of shares and $/share? Why 100 shares? I mean, I know 100 shares is a board lot, but from my (admittedly limited) experience, trading in odd lots isn't a problem, unless you're dealing with options but I don't think you do...

Would it be that much of an issue to buy a tranche of 33 shares at $30 so that your investment is still ~$1,000?


----------



## Toronto.gal

I used the 100 shares as a simple example; I trade in much higher volume btw, so for me, it's about price/volume [+++++].

Yes, of course if you invest an equal amount, and it drops an equal amount, the loss is the same.

For various [obvious] reasons, i mostly trade gold, that is, I don't hold for long-term, which for me, LT definition = 5+ years; less than that I don't really consider long-term, though I might categorize it as such for forum discussion purposes.

*Your equal investment question:*

1) $3,000 of $30 stock = 100 sh
2) $3,000 of $10 stock = 300 sh

To exit profitably from 1), whether my goal is 10%/50%/100%, etc., I would generally  need more time given the lower volume [hopefully < 5 yrs.] 
To exit profitably from 2), I would generally require less time given the higher volume.

I know HH doesn't understand my logic either, so you're not alone; we have had that discussion with AAPL before. :biggrin:

Or, let me put it to you this way, do you wish you had invested $1,000 in gold, or $3,000?


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> I know HH doesn't understand my logic either, so you're not alone; we have had that discussion with AAPL before. :biggrin:


lol, I have been trained enough to know that I should watch this discussion from far away and not say a word ;-)



(hence a happy marriage ;-)


----------



## Barwelle

Toronto.gal said:


> for me, it's about price/volume [+++++].
> 
> ...
> 
> *Your equal investment question:*
> 
> 1) $3,000 of $30 stock = 100 sh
> 2) $3,000 of $10 stock = 300 sh
> 
> To exit profitably from 1), whether my goal is 10%/50%/100%, etc., I would generally  need more time given the lower volume [hopefully < 5 yrs.]
> To exit profitably from 2), I would generally require less time given the higher volume.


I don't really understand these parts, could you elaborate? Not sure how a higher share price/lower # of shares equates with more time required to make a profit. 

Re: your question, I haven't invested anything in gold... If I had, I would of course be wishing I had invested $1,000 instead of $3,000 since it has come down... but that has nothing to do with the share price and the # of shares in a tranche.

(PS thanks for being patient... I'm not trolling here, just curious about your logic)

Should I not say anything in the future homerhomer? Nah... I'm not getting married any time soon!


----------



## Toronto.gal

Actually, no Barwelle, I don't wish to elaborate further as I have done so many times already.

The important thing is that you should follow/understand your own logic.


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## dogcom

T.Gal whatever strategy you use I think you will do fine unless this thing is indeed over then we will suffer. I can't think of a worse time to be in gold and silver and the blood is not just in the streets but now flooding the houses. This is where you will make the big money if there is money to be made. I remember 2009 in stocks and how that seemed like the end of the world and no one knew for sure that it wouldn't go down a total of 90 percent from the highs.

The only difference I see is I can't really see any good reason for gold to be dropping so hard and can only see money printing out there. However if I was big money and wanted in cheap I would want to bust everyone out of their position and make it my own.


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## blin10

gold broke all kinds of support... if it bounces from here great, but it looks bad on the charts...


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## lonewolf

Today the decline has retraced fib 38.2% from the 2008 low of 732


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## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Actually, no Barwelle, I don't wish to elaborate further as I have done so many times already.
> 
> The important thing is that you should follow/understand your own logic.


T.gal.
as usual the more u try to elaborate the more people may think that ... oh my that is nuts.
I do praisethis lady for her fantastic ability to go against the grain.
we both share a lot oof things and i do admire her enthusiasm and the high tolerance for riske.
she earned 300% in 1 stock .... kerx .
plus several other trades that she mentioned on the board.
i perceive her and some traders here with an extreme amount of tenacity for going against the grain.
when i look at a futures chain and the curve shape i ask myself ... where do i place my trade in the chain.
nevertheless the gold "Story" has taken a different direction much before today.
all one needed to da is take apeak and study the COFTC data.
yes lonewolf ... charts are a result of data.
they do not apper because of saturn alignment or jupiter disappearence... whatever.
and today we had the tip of the iceberg.... Cyprus central bank may be forced to sell gold.
i mentioned awhile ago that when central banks start moving the mkts pay attn.
cyprus is a tiny speck.
the question is if it turns into an epidemic.
today was a day for gold to actually rise with the bad reports in the US.
oil followed exactly what i expected.
but the mkt is not ready for a full retracement yet.
about a month or 2 ago i asked i think 4 pillars why was he buying KO.
he gave me one answer and that suffuced to confirm my thinking as to where the money is flowing into.
the real smart investors that do have a lot of capital to play with .
Kudos to him.
my problem with this board is the lack of interest in trying to at least find out why things are happening the way they are.
i will mix things up a bit here because a new story is developing.
natural gas.
natural gas has had since feb/ 1st i think not one bearish announcemment.
this mkt is more prone to news than an attempt to assasinate obama lol.
the Oi hit an all time high this week .
something i have not witnessed since 2011.
so where is this new money coming from?
Jupiter lonewolf?
no.
this money is coming from .... well that is impossible to really answer but i am sure that one can see now right.
When Japan had a tsunamy NG rallied and ... we do not even have a treaty to export the darn thing to them lol.
nevertheless atm the mkt is showing an interest structural development in the pricing to fill storage.
yes.
NG looks at weather and storage.
i am going against the grain here because i do think that the story maybe a little exacerbated.
others think that Ng will be trading at 14 bux by may 2014.
yes... 14 bux.
also Ng producers like ECA are stil trading at what 19 bux?
why not have a sharp rally also?
u can hedge NG atm for the year F20 ... yes year 2020/January for 5.25 .
yes .
a measly 75 cents extra to buy gas now 7 years down the road.
now lets look at oil for the year 2020.
dec traded today at 83.29.
dec/18 traded at 84.51.
yes .
we have backwardation..

one hast to ask why.
go find out urself although it is too obvious.
so why oil trades and natural gas does not?
because what E&p company is going to move their drilling from liquids atm to natural gas when the back of the curve is trading so cheap.
anyway... i am getting too much detail here


not one single contract has been trading that far which is not uncommon at all
going back to gold.
interestingly enough today's action cannot simply be ignored.
this was a major move in gold futures.
something i have not witnessed in my commodities trading history which is rather small.
i really wish no harm for anyone here.
i always had good intentions in my opinions and calls.
i am on the wrong side of the trade in my arena .
the question is how much pain i can take.
T.gal .
i really wish ya luck. and yes i do miss ya.
cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

Wow, what a long post; your longest I think!

With respect to your opening statement, well, the simple comment I had made, was that given what has happened to gold this month, that I had been glad for having opted for mid rather than large-caps stocks in this crazy sector atm [not to say that every space does not look irresistible as of Friday], and that had been it basically, but that simple message got totally lost...never mind. 

Anyway, I always appreciate the thought-provoking posts of yours & few others, but this weekend my attention will be with a film festival given that I'm a film [not gold] bug, lol, but I'll come back to re-read/understand your super long post. 

*dogcom:* I'm sure your own strategy will work out fine as well, and yes, definitely there is money to be made, so let us be optimistic + smart! :encouragement:


----------



## thenegotiator

yes T.gal.
very very long.
keep up the good work .
thks for the kind comments about thought provoking posts.
:encouragement:
enjoy the festival and forget about the shinning metal lol


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

"How the gold market was crashed" by Bill Downey. He says the beat down in gold was engineered. Here it is in his own words.

http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250

His claim is that the unprecedented early release of Fed minutes was deliberate, followed by a false rumor of Cyprus selling 400 million Euros worth of gold, then came the beat down, while the London gold market computers were frozen. This forced everyone who was long and wanted to sell gold, to hedge on the New York markets by selling paper gold (futures and options). This drove the price down to where it triggered all the stops, all the way down to the 2011 support level. After that, look out below. Expect a flood of selling on Monday due to margin calls.

All with the object of allowing J P Morgan and Comex to replenish their supplies of gold at cheap prices. And let the central banks, who have been hammering gold for years, to cover some of their shorts.

I bought a little PHYS on Friday, just on the technical action. I expect to buy more next week. My guess is gold is going to take off after the beat down. If I am wrong and it keeps going down I will sell and get short. Either way this is an important turning point.


----------



## sags

Interesting article, and well explained by the author.

Another discussion I heard was that fund managers are selling gold because it wasn't going up in value, and they need to show some results to their investors............so they sell gold to buy dividend paying stocks. The fund managers have money to invest and their investors don't care about macro issues or the safety of gold...........they want % returns every month.


----------



## Greenback

I watched the system go down, I was on silvergoldbull.
I was updating the price and soon as it dipped below about 1590 it shut down.
When it came back up their price was around $1600 and it stayed there the rest of Friday while the real time updates were still dropping.
I actually pulled out of an order because the update price went up while the market continued to drop.


----------



## thenegotiator

Greenback said:


> I watched the system go down, I was on silvergoldbull.
> I was updating the price and soon as it dipped below about 1590 it shut down.
> When it came back up their price was around $1600 and it stayed there the rest of Friday while the real time updates were still dropping.
> I actually pulled out of an order because the update price went up while the market continued to drop.


what do u mean by silvergoldbull?
do u trade futures ?
if u do how much (volume ) was traded on spot intraday(troy ounces)?


----------



## thenegotiator

the article can be good or what not.
like any conspiracy theory out there.
zero hedge posts those conspiracys on a dailiy basis right?
if the conspiracy is true( i do not immerse myself into that but i actually visualize the mkt as a whole) why did oil follow suit in the same pattern with high volume?
we cannot confound volatility with conspiracy a la Goldman sachs style.
any particular ideas.
oil bounced right off support at around 90 bux.
OP can u explain that please ?
we can discuss it further.
i am busy for the next while.
we can discuss it later on in the week if u want.
by the way paper trading is a different story than phys gold.
there is not enough gpold available if full panic ensues and everyone tries to redeem their gold at once.
by the way the hourly RSI on the DC chart is 9.
the path of least resistance maybe ...?
i have seen oil daily RSI on the DC at 15 .
i backed up the truck like a madman.
GL anyway


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Is it a conspiracy if everybody knows about it? What if I told you there was a conspiracy on the part of the Japanese government to drive down the value of the yen? This has been in the news, the prime minister was on TV, everybody knows about it. Bernanke in the US has said he will keep printing money and hold the interest rate to 0 or close to it, this has been fed policy for years now and is also no secret. Recently it came out that the LIBOR rate was fixed by collusion, in what was supposed to be a free market. This has meant billions in illegal profits to certain big banks.

Why is it so hard to believe that markets and even whole economies are manipulated when it is in the news every day?

Is there any facet of the economy, or business, that is not regulated, or coerced by governments around the world? Is there any government that is not lobbied by big business? Is there any government that does not have a central bank, or central bank that does not have a government?

I'm afraid the free market is a myth. I used to try and work out what the economy was going to do next as a guide to investing. Then I noticed every move the economy made was stymied by some government program carried out with the help of big banks and big business. You can't start and run even the smallest business without a million rules and regulations. Why should big business be any different? And if they have the power to influence governments why wouldn't they? You don't have to believe in some big conspiracy. Just read the papers and use your common sense.

You might also ask yourself where you got the idea that believing in "conspiracies" made you some kind of a nut.


----------



## Toronto.gal

thenegotiator said:


> 1. going against the grain.
> 2. all one needed to da is take apeak and study the COFTC data.
> 3. when central banks start moving the mkts pay attn.
> 4. oil followed exactly what i expected.
> 5. about a month or 2 ago i asked i think 4 pillars why was he buying KO.....kudos to him
> 6. When Japan had a tsunamy NG rallied...NG looks at weather and storage.....others think that Ng will be trading at 14 bux by may 2014.


*1.* It's not about being contrarian per se, but more about what makes common-sense to me based on my research, which just happens to sometimes go against my opinions. How many people here have labelled certain stocks as 'garbage' and/or untouchable for example? I'm talking about stocks like F/MF, not penny stocks. I made 70%+ return on booked profits of the former a couple of years ago & still sitting on more than 30% unrealized gains [excluding dividends]. I wasn't being contrarian at all, I simply believed in the success of the company. While many analysts praised GM, it is still sitting below its IPO price of $33, so a strictly buy & hold investor would still be down about -10% after its IPO of 2.5 years ago, and with no dividend payments either in that time, ie: dead money. Not saying GM is not a great company, I don't know, but I simply did not want the so called 'Government Motors'. I'm just saying that at the time of my purchase, one was better than the other despite reviews to the contrary. I think you [and others] called FB a garbage stock, and while I don't own it [yet], I told you long before I read this article, why it was a stock I wanted to own. Yuri explains it pretty well.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomioge...nvesting-against-the-grain-is-essential-sxsw/

As for the lack of interest that you mention, you have to keep in mind that there are different type of investors here/different ages/goals/personalities/time horizons, etc., but most importantly, most here I believe, are couch potatoes, which means by their own definition, that they prefer to be lazy investors, so to each her/his own; after all, market data & research, is not as simple as you make it sound, and simply not enough hours in the day to navigate it through it & absorb/capture/understand & correlate it all, but I agree that we have to search for it within our planet. :biggrin:

*2. *Very informative!
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

*3. *I recently read a lengthy university study on that subject, ie: how bank announcements & monetary policy affect market expectations/how they correlate to assets pricing [fair or manipulated], etc., but can't find the link atm to post, and a bit too scientific for me to relate it all here, and anyway, you can't understand as much by reading a short summary as it's a bit complex.

*4.* It only fell 2% on Friday on the reduced forecasts.

*5.* It had been Frugal *T*rader. I remember only because I had posted under the KO thread at the same time. His reasoning had been that he was building or increasing his US div. stocks, so KUDOS to him, but I bought before he did, LOL, and again, I had not been going against the grain, just what had made common-sense to me at that time, ie: that it would be less affordable with time, hence it was one of my earlier purchased stocks following the recession.

*6.* There is also a lot of academic papers on the asymmetric relationship between gas and oil prices. $14 Ng price by 2014?! That's not what the data or EIA's projection say? :biggrin:

Were we goldenly manipulated? Of course! No need to be a conspiracy theorist to see what is happening. Similar to those purposely ill-guided ratings by agencies who like to deflate/inflate if not defraud, etc. The markets even like to manipulate BB with allegedly false reports, LOL.

Remember the timing of the S&P's unprecedented downgrade of the US on Aug.5th/2011? Who were the ones that sold-off before the announcement had officially came out on that Friday, and several hours after the markets had closed? What about the gov.'s belief of the so called '$2 trillion error' in their calculations? Was it not done to delay the downgrade so we could think about what to do the following Monday? And now the gov. is suing them for that downgrade, LOL. Where was the S&P prior to the economic collapse btw?

How many average investors do you suppose had been able to figure out that the downgrade of the triple-A credit rating, that btw had been held for 70 years, had been imminent on that last day of political theatre? As usual, there had been a leak earlier on, just like all those leaks that appear mysteriously hours before Bernanke's famous speeches like Rusty mentioned. :rolleyes2:


----------



## HaroldCrump

A funny story about gold:

_The Old Lady’s staff – gamers and gold bugs_
http://www.cityam.com/article/old-lady-s-staff-gamers-and-gold-bugs

_Bank of England employees spend their worktime playing online games, planning trips to expensive shops and working out how to buy gold, according to data obtained by The Capitalist.
The figures also show many visits from the Bank of England to a website called SPDR Gold Shares – a company that promises an "innovative, relatively cost efficient and secure way" to access the gold market._

To this, Max Keiser remarked people that work in slaughterhouses often become vegetarian.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Massive landslide puts world's second largest copper, silver and gold mine out of business.
Kennecott Utah Copper's Bingham mine shut down by landslide. It may be a year before the damage is repaired and production restored.

http://www.news.com.au/world-news/h...gham-canyon-mine/story-fndir2ev-1226619124124

This mine is said to account for 16% of US gold supply and 5% of silver.

http://silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized/#more-25002

The slide happened April 10 (4 days ago). Did you see anything about it in the media? I'm asking because I seldom watch the news or read the papers anymore so might have missed it.

I just got wind of it now, off the net. Did a search for news and found it only on sites outside the US and on "conspiracy nut" silver and gold bug sites. Globe and Mail had something but the stories were blocked except to paid subscribers which I am not.

Will this disaster have an effect on gold and silver prices going forward? What do you think? I would expect something like this to make big headlines in the business and financial news and gold, silver and copper to immediately skyrocket.

Has anyone seen this in the news? It seems as far as gold and silver prices go, it is like it never happened.


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## thenegotiator

rusty and T.gal.
i am pressed for time till wednesday.
i will reply to ur comments.
it may sound biased because it will be after the fact but i am not rich and i do work for a living.
cheers


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## Squash500

Toronto.gal said:


> *1.* It's not about being contrarian per se, but more about what makes common-sense to me based on my research, which just happens to sometimes go against my opinions. How many people here have labelled certain stocks as 'garbage' and/or untouchable for example? I'm talking about stocks like F/MF, not penny stocks. I made 70%+ return on booked profits of the former a couple of years ago & still sitting on more than 30% unrealized gains [excluding dividends]. I wasn't being contrarian at all, I simply believed in the success of the company. While many analysts praised GM, it is still sitting below its IPO price of $33, so a strictly buy & hold investor would still be down about -10% after its IPO of 2.5 years ago, and with no dividend payments either in that time, ie: dead money. Not saying GM is not a great company, I don't know, but I simply did not want the so called 'Government Motors'. I'm just saying that at the time of my purchase, one was better than the other despite reviews to the contrary. I think you [and others] called FB a garbage stock, and while I don't own it [yet], I told you long before I read this article, why it was a stock I wanted to own. Yuri explains it pretty well.
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomioge...nvesting-against-the-grain-is-essential-sxsw/
> 
> As for the lack of interest that you mention, you have to keep in mind that there are different type of investors here/different ages/goals/personalities/time horizons, etc., but most importantly, most here I believe, are couch potatoes, which means by their own definition, that they prefer to be lazy investors, so to each her/his own; after all, market data & research, is not as simple as you make it sound, and simply not enough hours in the day to navigate it through it & absorb/capture/understand & correlate it all, but I agree that we have to search for it within our planet. :biggrin:
> 
> *2. *Very informative!
> http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
> 
> *3. *I recently read a lengthy university study on that subject, ie: how bank announcements & monetary policy affect market expectations/how they correlate to assets pricing [fair or manipulated], etc., but can't find the link atm to post, and a bit too scientific for me to relate it all here, and anyway, you can't understand as much by reading a short summary as it's a bit complex.
> 
> *4.* It only fell 2% on Friday on the reduced forecasts.
> 
> *5.* It had been Frugal *T*rader. I remember only because I had posted under the KO thread at the same time. His reasoning had been that he was building or increasing his US div. stocks, so KUDOS to him, but I bought before he did, LOL, and again, I had not been going against the grain, just what had made common-sense to me at that time, ie: that it would be less affordable with time, hence it was one of my earlier purchased stocks following the recession.
> 
> *6.* There is also a lot of academic papers on the asymmetric relationship between gas and oil prices. $14 Ng price by 2014?! That's not what the data or EIA's projection say? :biggrin:
> 
> Were we goldenly manipulated? Of course! No need to be a conspiracy theorist to see what is happening. Similar to those purposely ill-guided ratings by agencies who like to deflate/inflate if not defraud, etc. The markets even like to manipulate BB with allegedly false reports, LOL.
> 
> Remember the timing of the S&P's unprecedented downgrade of the US on Aug.5th/2011? Who were the ones that sold-off before the announcement had officially came out on that Friday, and several hours after the markets had closed? What about the gov.'s belief of the so called '$2 trillion error' in their calculations? Was it not done to delay the downgrade so we could think about what to do the following Monday? And now the gov. is suing them for that downgrade, LOL. Where was the S&P prior to the economic collapse btw?
> 
> How many average investors do you suppose had been able to figure out that the downgrade of the triple-A credit rating, that btw had been held for 70 years, had been imminent on that last day of political theatre? As usual, there had been a leak earlier on, just like all those leaks that appear mysteriously hours before Bernanke's famous speeches like Rusty mentioned. :rolleyes2:


 I really don't agree with any of your comments. Couch potato investors are not necessarily lazy investors. We're sometimes smart investors---LOL. Tgal are you a financial advisor by any chance? You talk a good game...but so could I if I wanted to. If I remember correctly....you didn't sell all of your position in AAPL when you had the chance.


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## Toronto.gal

To answer your question, NOPE!

I don't talk any other game than my own, nor try to sell/promote anything either, just sharing my personal experience.

I didn't sell AAPL because I didn't want to do so, that simple! Was it a mistake? Who knows, time will tell, but I'm still up over $200 per share. 

I'm far from perfect and have made my share of errors with stock picking/market timing, etc. I don't have a crystal ball & have only been investing for 3+ years. 

You have the right to disagree; it's a discussion forum! :encouragement:

*Edit: *One last thing as you're once again putting words into my mouth: I didn't say couch potatoes are lazy or that they are not smart, I said they call themselves lazy; on and off the forum.


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## dogcom

Rusty I agree with you and that is everything is not right and getting worse. I just heard about the landslide thing today and physical PM buying is red hot from the far east to the coin markets in the west which doesn't sound like any bear market that I have ever heard of. In normal bear markets people sell in fear until there are no sellers and only buyers left. This is far different as there are plenty of buyers in the real world and very few sellers and in the fake world of the COMEX there is a landslide of paper selling of gold that isn't there.

I would think these guys will be covering their shorts as paper selling continues and leave the hedge funds and small investors holding the bag of shorts. 

I also think this because why would Goldman Sachs and such want to tip everyone off about shorting the market unless it was in their best interests to do so.


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## dogcom

I should also add here is an article about the so called flood of gold that a Cyprus sale would bring to market that is causing gold to crash. Also it is gold they are selling so why is all the PM's selling along side it with copper and oil as well.

http://silverdoctors.com/something-big-is-collapsing-out-of-the-publics-sight/


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## thenegotiator

i can only hope that u guys do not get hurt in the long run.
like i said ... when i have the time my post may be biased .
nevertheless dog i think that i mentioned the possibility of a lower price.
i mentioned to follow crtain signs and charts and news etc... etc....
i never mentioned the tanking but the futures mkt is complex for the retail investor.
much luck anyway.


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## thenegotiator

i may place a bid on the long side on gold at MOC.
it will depend on volume and how well margin calls are handled.
it is going to be a pain train like i said .... well enough saying of what i said .
it is what it is .
GLTA


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## sags

There was a debate a year or so ago, when an analyst claimed gold ETFs and other gold paper were dangerous, because there wasn't enough physical gold to back the paper?

The response at the time was there was no problem, because everyone wouldn't want to cash out at the same time.

Is that exactly what is happening now? Not everybody wanted to get out.......but may not want to be left holding a bag of worthless paper or ETF shares that are collapsing.

According to one gold analyst on BNN today..........the demand for bullion exceeds the supply............but nobody wants paper.


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## Toronto.gal

In a recent article I read that when the price goes up, gold takes the escalator. Conversely, when the price goes down, it takes the elevator. It sure feels that way! What is happening is definitely more than mere central bank policies & investor confidence. I find it hard to believe how anyone could be thinking of this cyclopean sell-off as just markets being efficient & logically doing what they are supposed to do [no English word does it justice]. :rolleyes2:

IMO, there had been reasons for a retracement, but also catalysts for a rebound, like the threats coming out of NKorea/the actions of the Bank of Japan for example, etc., etc., but gold has reacted in reverse order for some time.

- On Oct.20/2008, gold price was around $800, and a miner like G was trading @ $17/HUI = $222.69. 
- By end of 2009, gold was near $1,100, and G over $40/HUI = $429.91. 
- Today, gold fell below $1,400, and G is trading @ near $28/HUI = $276.96.
- Last time gold was trading at today's levels, was at the end of 2010, G was then trading at $45+/HUI = $573.32. Compare that to the line above. :hopelessness:

Will gold price hit $1,000?


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## Spudd

I gather from the context that HUI means share, but what does it stand for?


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## Toronto.gal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^HUI


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## james4beach

Although gold is clearly getting hit hard I realy don't think this is gold specific. Some other accompanying things:

1. commodity indexes in generaly look very weak. The broad $CCI has had a rough month and it's been declining for 6 months straight

2. look at when gold started crashing, start of April. The 10 year yield also started plummeting at the same time. This really shows an underlying link that's deeper than 'gold'. Why the sudden rush to safety of bonds?

3. I see that USO is starting to crash now too, along with gold. DBC (broadly energy) has been crashing all month


I really don't see this being gold specific. I think QE failed to create enough money ... the global deleveraging forces (Europe) are so strong ... and the fundamental economy so weak ... China halting activity ... I think it's over soon folks. 5 year bull run coming to a close.


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## dogcom

Thenegotiator you are right trying to play against someone who has unlimited funds is a fools game one needs to own the physical stuff like the article says I printed above that the paper could be worth zero. The old saying of buy low just doesn't seem to apply in these markets. We simply don't have the insider knowledge required to play these sorts of markets and a lot of very smart people don't have it either even if they are right about manipulation. Silver if you have guts should bottom at $20.00 but who knows with the unlimited printed money.

In the end something very bad will come out of all of this I am afraid and no market is going to be safe.


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## andrewf

Equities about to go on sale? Yes please!


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## supperfly17

andrewf said:


> Equities about to go on sale? Yes please!


Are you referring to gold only equities?


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## Toronto.gal

Squash500 said:


> 1. I really don't agree with any of your comments.
> 2. you didn't sell all of your position in AAPL when you had the chance.


I was too tired last night to get into a long post with you, but I do want to address the above.

*1.* First of all, this thread went a bit off-topic, apologies for that, but I really wanted to respond/address some of TN's points, because I thought them to be important. I welcome respectful & constructive criticism & feedback/discussion/disagreement any time, but simply saying 'I don't agree with any of your comments', is no discussion at all, so maybe next time you want to address me [not here plz not to get further off-topic], it would be nice if you could explain your reasoning rather than merely attack me as u did the 1st time under the AAPL thread as well. 

*2.* What did my selling or not of AAPL had anything to do with what I said above? Since when do we know when to buy/sell 100% of the time? FYI, I have a long-term portfolio, which I only touch for re-balance purposes, and AAPL falls under that category, though admittedly, I did not do that in this case because I had increased my allocation before the stock began to decline. Also FYI, the only reason sometimes I get into the profits I make %wise, is to let some know that it's possible to make better returns than 3%, 4%, 5%, etc., but without resorting to penny stocks/expensive stocks/complicated stocks, etc., but never to show-off or pump any investment.


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## andrewf

supper, all equities, hopefully.


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## fatcat

in my spreadsheet barrick just crossed into a 4% dividend ...

there does appear to be stronger demand for physical from small savers and stackers worldwide but i think that it is a reflection of the fact the big paper traders are way ahead of them ... the small stackers come late to the game

this is an asset hard to value and based on fear and greed

why should we be surprised by any of this ?

you don't need a conspiracy theory


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## Argonaut

Looks like the bull run that began at the start of this century is over. Getting close to the point where I purchased my physical gold at $1250. Ah well, thems the breaks. Can't wait to buy some more physical when the time is right.


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## donald

Wonder what is up with the small cap chimata gold(cat)?It is up 46% today.......why is it not following the big boys.I would not touch the stock(exchange)but it seems odd.


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## fatcat

Argonaut said:


> Looks like the bull run that began at the start of this century is over. Getting close to the point where I purchased my physical gold at $1250. Ah well, thems the breaks. Can't wait to buy some more physical when the time is right.


i am stacking silver in a small way and would definitely buy if i could get in below 20 or gold at 1000 ... 

all those folks like gartman and a slew of others who have been telling everyone to buy the producers should be forced to eat their jockey shorts slowly

it will be interesting to see the producers make money at a 1000 if oil stays well up and political troubles persist


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## Toronto.gal

Doesn't quite fall under the definition of 'small cap' Donald. 

Why wouldn't you touch it if you're interested/following the story [if there is any?]. Let's see, 1,000 shares @ $.10 cents = $100; but given the huge increase today, I would suggest to wait for a correction. :biggrin:

But you're right, it's interesting that it's up today of ALL bloody days.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAT.V+Interactive


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## dogcom

T.Gal I talked to my wife today about how bad this selloff is and that I can take the loss and get out if she wants it and she said no. She felt it best to buy more and ride it out because if you ever want to get ahead in life then this is when one should take on the risk. 

I tell you now that she is in I am fine with any losses and all steam ahead. Added some BTO this morning by the way.


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## 1.5M

Finally, it seems it happens. My hope is it will get to 800 and take the oil and C$ with it. Also hopping to get a nice 20% correction in SP500 out of it.


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## humble_pie

donald said:


> Wonder what is up with the small cap chimata gold(cat)?It is up 46% today.......why is it not following the big boys.I would not touch the stock(exchange)but it seems odd.



donald u are trying to be humourous on a sorrowful day like today, right?

look at the facts about your hot lil tomatta chimatta. I mean, just look at em. 

they are screaming at you from the website. They are screeching out-of-tune opera at you from the ether. They - the facts - are wailing, sobbing & howling at you from one end of this country to another.

that "stock" didn't go "up 46%" today. The volume today is one thousand shares. That entire trade was less than 10 bucks. It was a headfake.

they are a bunch of promoters who say they own a bunch of claims in northern quebec. So? you could probably find better claims in the ground underneath your own roofing contract properties each:

the only sign of life in this piece of vancouver trash ever since it went public last summer was just a month ago, during march. Chimatta tomatta burped. Out came a trade of more than 400,000 shares.

gosh donald u are supposed to be a cool roofer & businessman ...


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## donald

I'm just messing with you humble-pie.....I knew you would bite on my post......hiya i am a hip young old school businessman...No worries!!I'm snowed out today and my boys aren't working.

Just wanted to see what the humbie had to say.double checking on dangerous-gotta love it.


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## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> T.Gal I talked to my wife today about how bad this selloff is and that I can take the loss and get out if she wants it and she said no.


That's good that neither is panicking.

I don't know how painful are your unrealized losses, but i'm also holding tight as what I bought recently, I plan to hold for longer-term given the valuation. I made decent returns the last couple of years trading gold, and have no plans changing that strategy while waiting for the prices & longer-term holds to recover. Of importance also, is that my current ACB is a lot less than my 1st gold purchase ever was back in 2010, and yours was too probably, so I don't feel so concerned. This was a massive sell-off, one that has a story for sure!

*hp:* Never heard of Chimata before, but upon reading Donald's post, the first thought that popped into my mind, was that of a takeover, and so had a good chuckle when I took a quick look into the actual price increase.

Sorrowful day indeed, but a much horrible one in Boston. Unbelievable.


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## el oro

There was way too much faith/optimism and conspiracy talk in the gold community and so gold has been relatively weak in this across the board selloff. 

In my opinion, gold (and US equities for that matter) will be making new all time highs within five years. Between now and then, though, the risk is certainly there for a continued slide. I'm hoping for $1000 gold, at which point I'll be looking into jumping back in with three feet.

For now I am short a very large position of the EURUSD pair. In other words, I believe that despite what many goldbugs say about the US, they are in better shape than other economies around the world. Without significant changes, the crises in Europe and elsewhere will cause significant capital inflows into the relatve safety of the USD, increasing its value. Those Euro issues don't stop happening just because you stop hearing about it in the news for a while. 

The USD appreciation in turn will place additional pressure on commodity prices, particularly gold, due to their historically inverse relationship. 

For the gold and gold equity holders that are gagging at the sight of their poorly diversified portfolios, I'd suggest you consider lower gold prices and if you'll be able to stomach it. If you're holding gold equities, find out what their costs are. Mines will run consecutive quarters at negative cashflow because the cost to shut down a mine and restart it is quite high. You don't want to own a gold company that can't withstand a price dip and shuts down. If you agree with me that we will see higher gold prices 5 years from now then you will want to avoid companies that will consider hedging practices at low prices. If you can take the pain and you own quality companies, you will be rewarded... eventually. All imo.

@Rusty: The big mine failure in Utah was big news in the mine technical community. Don't expect that to affect the commodity prices, though.


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## Toronto.gal

donald said:


> dangerous-*gotta love it*.


Did you ever see AR's price chart? Check July 3/09? Argo's pick, but not sure when he bought it, though it would have had to have been in 2010 the earliest.


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## donald

Tgal You think it might not be fluff with chimata(watch,wouldn't it be funny if in 2 yrs there is really something to chimata)Who knows maybe a insider is slooowly picking up shares here and there and picking bad days to divert attention?Someone swoops in abuys them?I posted it as a joke(though i was looking at gold companies this mourning for fun & it stood out)Being quebec(that is in humble's wheel house)Wanted to see if anybody heard about them


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## humble_pie

i just remembered balmoral, lately the focus of intense pumping on this forum at $1.20. I believe it's plunged by close to 50%.

balmoral is a quebec mine too each:

in fact northern canada is studded with mostly-unexplored mines from lake Simco all the way to the north pole

would u like to know a couple more great countries w fabulous unexplored mines? afghanistan, that's one. Tibet is another.


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## Toronto.gal

donald said:


> Tgal You think it might not be fluff with chimata(watch,wouldn't it be funny if in 2 yrs there is really something to chimata)...


Anything is possible Donald, but I have yet to make any such penny stock purchase, oh wait, I have, but not in gold, in tech: I purchased Kodak in early 2012 after the company filed for bankruptcy protection. If you want to analyze a more interesting chart than Chamata [volume-wise, lol], take a look at today's & the month of March/2013. Let's see what Antonio Pérez can do with the imaging business side. At any rate, I won't be losing my shirt as I invested my trading profits of one day on this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Btw, I gave you good advice yesterday to wait for a correction; today you can have 'Tomata Chimata' for $70 instead of $100. :encouragement: Assuming of course, that there are enough sellers. 

1.8% recovery today for gold; better than dropping below $1,300, though it's not too far from that either. :rolleyes2:


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## dogcom

By the way with the paper market being so much cheaper then the physical market what is to stop arbitrage from the CRIMEX or COMEX as we know it. People may expect delivery for this reason and we know the COMEX doesn't have it so it could default. The Fed printed money into massive naked shorts and knows it won't deliver unless it unloaded it to others who also can't deliver. Either way they won't have to deliver so the game will end there. You need to own the real stuff or be in a fund that you know has the real thing.

By the way the spread will get farther apart as no one in their right mind is going to deal in the paper market if they know it won't deliver.


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## fatcat

dogcom said:


> By the way with the paper market being so much cheaper then the physical market what is to stop arbitrage from the CRIMEX or COMEX as we know it. People may expect delivery for this reason and we know the COMEX doesn't have it so it could default. The Fed printed money into massive naked shorts and knows it won't deliver unless it unloaded it to others who also can't deliver. Either way they won't have to deliver so the game will end there. You need to own the real stuff or be in a fund that you know has the real thing.
> 
> By the way the spread will get farther apart as no one in their right mind is going to deal in the paper market if they know it won't deliver.


dog, i agree, i have some physical gold and would buy more if it dropped to a 1000 or so

it seems to me that this is the only really solid case for gold (other than perhaps as a dividend stock)

stacking or accumulating the physical on the dips makes sense as a long term investment and insurance against ??????


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## thenegotiator

dog.
when i posted that this is a tough crowd i meant it.
but then again everyone has an opinion.
the problem to form an opinion is to see what the data is telling ya and what the mkt is telling ya and what the media is telling ya and what the currencies and whatever else u can think of is telling ya.
nobody could have seen this latest drop with such magnitude in all metals .
in less then a week i would say that at least 1.2 million contracts changed hands in gold only.
now now go ask DODD -FRANk why is this all happening when they let the commodity index funds re-balance once per year and give them with a lot of courtesy the aptitude to place unlimited bids.
in Natural gas atm there is about 600k lots sitting in the July contract from these pachyderms.
check on the cme how much is one contract of gold and how much margin requirements are atm.
i was going to refrain from posting and most likely this will be my last post.
I can feel that people here are trying to catch a 5 ton safe falling from the top of the 300th floor of a building without having a clue as to where this mkt is going.
nobody can find a bottom.
the bottom will form and it will take time until these gargantuans index funds eat the real futures TRADERS that HAVE position limitations.
all in the name of TRANSPARENCY DOG.
i deeply feel sorry for whoever is at loss, nevertheless several signs were already showing the ugly face.
problem is the magnitude that it acomplished.
and yet what is left in the world of finances to place ur money safely?
that i will leave for all the members here to answer which is too damn obvious.
either way .
i am a small chomp trying to tellya people that there are times that u take a step back and just watch the bloodbath which just started to unfold.
they exterminated the weak longs so far .... and where do we go from here.
the guy on this board next to ya knows as much as you do.
there are members here asking and blabbing about "how do u give value to gold'? 
the value is what prints on the screen that the pachyderms tell ya it is.
i could not give a hoot about trying to find out what the fair value is for anything .
it prints in my screen to me that is the mkt value.
if they tell me that ABX is worth 10-15 -18 bux- 50 bux or whatever then that is the value
yes ... KISS method.
if they tell me that oil is valued at 86 bux when the cost to produce oil from bitumen is around 50 bux then be it.
GLTA that are at loss and i do hope they get their money back


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## dogcom

What is lost and that is they way it is. My mistake was not cashing out when the trade was going against me. I tried buy and hold and that is not a good idea in this sort of market and I know that but like most people you make the mistake anyway. I can say however there is no real way to value anything at this time except the price they give on that day as you said. Probably buying utilities at cheaper prices is the only thing we can say has value to it as well as the dividend that goes with it.

I should say this though when we see a nice hammer that will probably be the bottom in this sort of market.


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## thenegotiator

dog.
as usual i am not trying to be an *** at all.
all the influx of money since the beginning of January has taken their way towards defensive stocks by the same pachyderms.
actually pachyderms of a different nature than commodity index funds.
What I wonder is does anyone here have an idea as to what a commodity index fund really is?
i mentioned that the index would reach around 1600 and i think it has topped pretty close to it.
maybe it will go higher.
i do not give a hoot if it does.
i do not trade the indexes .
actually i was short the Chinese index and i posted that i was short.
as in any mkt any positive news that may come tomorrow from the US or Europe or anywhere in the world can trigger a good rally atm.
if nothing positive is announced it most likely will be like i mentioned ... it will go through the path of least resistance......
we all make mistakes.
i am still a new trader compared to people i know with more than 15 years of trading experience.
i make several mistakes and try and learn from them.
we all know the mkt is oversold .
does it matter atm?
maybe maybe not.
we can stay here for a long time and go lower.
copper is 30 cents away from 08 lows.
utilities are defensive stocks right?
any defensive stock is trading higher right? i mean most of them.
GL bro


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## dogcom

Utility stocks need to correct but you are right those are the stocks that have easier to see value.

Silver Wheaton is one I will look to play when all settles out instead of COMEX bullshit if I want something on paper.


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## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> What is lost and that is they way it is. My mistake was not cashing out when the trade was going against me. I tried buy and hold and that is not a good idea in this sort of market and I know that but like most people you make the mistake anyway. I can say however there is no real way to value anything at this time except the price they give on that day as you said. Probably buying utilities at cheaper prices is the only thing we can say has value to it as well as the dividend that goes with it.
> 
> I should say this though when we see a nice hammer that will probably be the bottom in this sort of market.



by the way .
as i type i am looking at my cme account and i can see 30k cars in June traded so far in gold at around 1350 electronically.
if i was seeing 100k cars then.... 
nevertheless as the pits open tomorrow it can intensify either way .
cheers


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## thenegotiator

dogcom said:


> Utility stocks need to correct but you are right those are the stocks that have easier to see value.
> 
> Silver Wheaton is one I will look to play when all settles out instead of COMEX bullshit if I want something on paper.


defensive stocks = divvys .
big money sits on divvys.
walmart can go lower in price... divvys will get paid
Johnson and Johnson can go lower.. divvys will get paid .
the list goes on and on.
u know i seldomly trade stocks nowadays roght?
i know that FM ald SLW seem to be known companies.. dunno the fundamentals behind them.
if u prefer to stay out of Comex by all means.
when u feel ready then get ur feet wet.
cheers


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## thenegotiator

by the way .
as we type some piece of news that if accompanied by numbers from the US side may spark a rally tomorrow.
just remember that we are also in oversold conditions right?


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## dogcom

Oversold is an understatement but this has been the case for quite awhile now.


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## thenegotiator

RSI on the DC chart in copper is 26.
technically definitely oversold ... it can go further lower.
Gold is around 20 on the DC .
oil is 29 0n the Dc.
and the list goes on .
nevertheless there is no other technical parameters for me to stick my neck out and go long unless it is a quick trade only.
not an understatement.
just the reality.
it is what it is.
ABX on the DC is at 12 and yet nothing that would make me bet the farm on it at all bro. amongst many other stocks.


----------



## dogcom

If copper keeps getting nailed then you have to wonder how much longer the overall stock market can hold up in the face of deflation and a slowing economy.


----------



## thenegotiator

everything today had a nice facelift.
now it is bordering oversold.
the Crimex and brothers lol are actively at work as u say.
actually my short position on natural gas is dramatically in pain.
my long position at 10:29 is a ok but i was yet again stopped out at 4.4.
dunno what to say to ya about natural gas but there is natural gas missing somewhere which is starting to make me believe that we may actually going higher .
nevertheless almost everyone i know feels and believes that at the this prices and with the switching season coming in full force we are in overbought area.
the chart itself says that.
but like i said to ya it prints in front of me then that is the price right?
i cannot change my screen resolution and make prices lower because i want it lower.
thanks Dodd -Frank


----------



## thenegotiator

Gold is entering the 4th day attempting to break above 1400.
every single time it gets there it is sold off.
how much longer i ask u guys?
anybody ?
strong resistance.
at 1400 . impressive.


----------



## dogcom

Thenegotiator if the Fed is smart it will let this go up as to give the illusion of a fair market and if they don't god help them because I think the COMEX will default.


----------



## thenegotiator

the unthinkable fate of the CRIMEX .
just like MF global.
some guys in my group will never see their money again by the way.
that is sad.


----------



## dogcom

Thenegotiator you have always had the CRIMEX thing figured out but just didn't know it. You warned about the COT thing but really it was CRIMEX 101 and I should have got it.


----------



## thenegotiator

dog.
i am awake trying to get water out of stones in NG but the mkt is very very illiquid.
as we speak gold broke the 1400 resistance area that has been holding it for 3 days.
low volume though.
u have to stop with this CRIMEX thing and start thinking about the mkt as a whole.
imagine a rubber band .
u can try to stretch it beyond possibility .
it will either simply break or come back to the medium position right.
the cot is one piece of data.
so lets say that i am seeing volume increase in gold atm and going higher.
i do not have the present data of the cot. 
i have yesterday's data.
nevertheless it may have hit an exhaustion point of selling.
shorts have to buy back the same positions in the mkt .
therefore the mkt rises.
it was a barbaric act.
do not try to find an explanation for it.
just trade it.
i joked here today about Ng.
at 10:29 i placed a long bet before the EIA release.
maybe i was lucky maybe not.
i set a stop at 4.4 ... lol GS number.
nevertheless the same will happen with the NG mkt.
all that money piled up on the long side at one point will have to exit their positions.
right now the shorts on NG are flat.
what i see in front of me is that the same pachyderms will start to build their short positions so they can also liquidate their longs and benefit from the downside.
that is why i always say that if u believe in ur thesis stick with it.
u have to create ur thesis though.
each mkt is different right?
they are stretching it higher and higher.
at one point certain fundamentals change and it pulls back.
therefore all the cot data is is just an indicator.
the cot data prior to the major collapse that we saw in gold was showing a net long position.
not like the one we had in 2012 .much lower than at that time.
i do not know why gold is inching higher atm and i do not care either.
if the trend is up it is up .
nevertheless wait for confirmation .
u cannot time the bottom.
it could be a headfake right?
take another look at the goldbug index .
there is a gap and that gap will get filled.
i told ya that if it comes back up sell the rally did i not?
much luck brother
what changes the whole thing are the events around it.
i hope i am being helpfull


----------



## thenegotiator

dog.
here is some data ideas mixed with news.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...utlook-as-asian-jewelers-buy-commodities.html
what if next week fcx has a major catastrophe in one of his mines or a major strike/
what if BHP has something similar happen to them?
what will happen to the price of copper even though LME warehouses are brimming with it?
those are the things that can occur.
do u think that any NG trader out there expected 9 weeks of relentless cold?
no.
nevertheless the weather forecasts keeps printing colder weather.
therefore I ask you .
what if summer this year is a much colder summer ?
i dunno yet.
i am dealing with mother nature here.
i know that coal right now will definitely take a large chunk of power burn very very soon.
actually as soon as nukes ramp back up.
we are at the peak of nuke maintenance .
same with coal maintenance on coal plants.
all that is data just like the COT.
it is not a creation of my mind.
it is physically happening.

nevertheless NG storage operators have to prepare for the next winter season and they have to fill storage to capacity.
they cannot take the chance and be with their tanks empty right?
price?
i dunno yet.
if weather is favorable for the bears from may and forward then i can tell ya that prices will moderate.
if production stays at the pace that we are seeing Ng will go lower.
ng producers are hedging their production right now at the nymex at these prices.
it is sell sell sell for them.
anyway.
gotta go to sleep there is no scalping for me tonite on NG.
cheers


----------



## thenegotiator

dog
this is the same Goldman Sachs that now says that Ng is the safe haven.
that was in January when we were heading to be close to or above 2 tcf in storage by now.
do u think that natural gas traders don't keep an eye at storage/production / consumption at all times?
more than u can imagine.
here is the glorious news from the GS clowns back then.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ld-weather-forecast-to-sweep-across-u-s-.html
that is why i posted here that they are the ignorant money .
i bought lottery tickets (puts) for April at that time.
of course they expired worthless right?


----------



## lonewolf

The price decline in gold is it a warning that other markets are about to top & turn down ? All the same market has been working over the recent years. If gold did form a major top stocks could follow latter this year along with real estate & oil.


----------



## thenegotiator

lonewolf said:


> The price decline in gold is it a warning that other markets are about to top & turn down ? All the same market has been working over the recent years. If gold did form a major top stocks could follow latter this year along with real estate & oil.



ask this week's OI.
get ur answer for urself


----------



## lonewolf

Thenegotiator

What does "OI" stand for


----------



## thenegotiator

u have got to be kiddin me


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

OI = open interest. The Comex keeps tabs on the number of open contracts, long and short. Broken down by commercial hedgers, large traders and small traders. This gives you a clue to what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future.


----------



## thenegotiator

dogcom .
this week my anticipated "hope" is that all this damn dumb money that piled on Natural gas from gold, silver etc... just leaves yet again the natural gas mkt...
that is all i care right now.
I will thank GS a lot for that.
GL on ur longs


----------



## thenegotiator

Rusty O'Toole said:


> OI = open interest. The Comex keeps tabs on the number of open contracts, long and short. Broken down by commercial hedgers, large traders and small traders. This gives you a clue to what has happened in the past and what will happen in the future.


I have not yet answered to ur 'conspiracy theory " and I will leave that out of the equation anyway.
since u have answered lonewolf the simplest jargon in the futures mkt and by just looking at the actual OI for last week could u enlighten me if this mkt turned bullish?
i mean where id gold heading in Your opinion?
i mean lonewolf can tell T.gal that she should not sit in the poker tables that he plays on.
i am more than willing to do so... but he never invited me .
therefore i can see that he is just not prepared to play in the poker tables that i do.
and yes this time definitely pun intended.
Harold get ur stick ready and beat me up brother.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

thenegotiator said:


> I have not yet answered to ur 'conspiracy theory " and I will leave that out of the equation anyway.
> since u have answered lonewolf the simplest jargon in the futures mkt and by just looking at the actual OI for last week could u enlighten me if this mkt turned bullish?
> i mean where id gold heading in Your opinion?
> i mean lonewolf can tell T.gal that she should not sit in the poker tables that he plays on.
> i am more than willing to do so... but he never invited me .
> therefore i can see that he is just not prepared to play in the poker tables that i do.
> and yes this time definitely pun intended.
> Harold get ur stick ready and beat me up brother.


Let me put on the Truth Tiara:

Last week I bought some Sprott Physical Gold fund purely on the technical action. I expected it to bounce off support at the 1550 level or thereabouts as it had done three times already.

I was dead wrong and lost on the position.

Some internet research convinced me that the present price is too low. The whole world is buying gold, physical gold not paper. The paper market must either reflect the reality of the marketplace (go up) or decouple from reality, resulting in a 2 tier price structure, one for the paper markets and another for physical. In other words it will no longer be possible to buy on the London or New York markets and take delivery. I don't believe this is possible without shutting down every precious metals paper market.

So, I bought more paper gold - but hedged my position with some July puts. I will know in a few weeks whether I am right or wrong. If the answer is up I can sell the puts, if down I can keep the puts and sell the ETFs.

In the meantime I stand to lose a few hundred dollars at most, and that is only if the gold markets go sideways for 3 months and if that happens you can wrap me in tinfoil and bake me for a potato.

(By the way if the PM markets go sideways for 3 months options will get dirt cheap. That will also be a good time to prepare for a breakout)

PS I still have my phys under lock and key. I still regard it as savings not to be touched until interest rates go up or the world's bankers and governments turn honest.The paper speculation is separate.

PPS The markets are so manipulated the old rules don't hold water the way they used to, either technical or fundamental. But the Comex has been running down their stocks of gold and silver so that should have given me a clue. On the other hand Goldman Sachs told their muppets (their word not mine) to sell gold so naturally I thought it was going up. I still think you can make money fadeing Goldman's tips, 9 times out of 10.


----------



## Jon_Snow

Wow. CMF meltdown of the year so far. LOL.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

thenegotiator said:


> i dunno wtf is TIARA. alright?
> actually i am really sick and fucking tired of being called names here that i do not understand alright?
> u point to me at any time who called so many things right here on this board?
> i was not not the only one obviously .
> there are a few others.
> the most traditional traders like 4 pillars and CC sure have their eyes on the ball atm.
> as for ur thesis above in regards to PHYs and paper trading i really could not give a hoot because u also cannot understand what the latest OI is telling me.
> and i definitely am sure that u have no fucking clue as to what it is telling real traders .
> as for saying that lonewolf cannot understand the most basic jargon in futures and u come out to explain and defend him while he bashes T.gal and her calls? give me a break alright?
> i am done here.
> like i said this is a tough crowd.
> keep ur puts .
> u might need them .
> ur on my ignore from now on.
> i am really sick of being called names here.
> and by the way i am also sick of hearing.... jeez the mkts are manipulated.
> if ur not man enough to play the manipulation sit it out.
> if u do not understand what the mkt is doing ... sit it out.
> it is that simple
> whatever man


A Tiara is a type of crown. Putting on the truth tiara means I am getting set to tell the truth. It is supposed to be funny.

What follows is my actual position and my reasoning for putting on the position. You asked me a question and I gave you a straight answer. It seems you don't like my position or my reasons. I will try to bear up under the strain.

I didn't call you any names, but if I did, it would rhyme with bass hole.

Goodbye.

(Disclaimer. I don't claim to have ever been right about anything and anybody who trades off my posts is nuts)


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I did explain what a tiara is. It's a type of crown. That was in the first line of my post.

You didn't ask what OI means. That was Lone Wolf. You say you already know so what would be the point of explaining it to you?

You asked where gold was headed in my opinion and I told you: UP. I also told you I backed that opinion with my own money and I WAS WRONG. So I reassessed, decided I was right, and doubled down - but hedged with puts in case I was wrong.

I believe gold is going up, unless it goes down, or it might stay the same.

So, you are right. I have NO CLUE where gold is going.

Why don't you enlighten us? Tell us what gold is going to do next week, and what the price of gold will be at closing time next Friday?

PS if it will make you happy tell me what your native language is and I will insult you in it.


----------



## ban




----------



## thenegotiator

rusty o'toole said:


> i did explain what a tiara is. It's a type of crown. That was in the first line of my post.
> 
> You didn't ask what oi means. That was lone wolf. You say you already know so what would be the point of explaining it to you?
> 
> You asked where gold was headed in my opinion and i told you: Up. I also told you i backed that opinion with my own money and i was wrong. So i reassessed, decided i was right, and doubled down - but hedged with puts in case i was wrong.
> 
> I believe gold is going up, unless it goes down, or it might stay the same.
> 
> So, you are right. I have no clue where gold is going.
> 
> Why don't you enlighten us? Tell us what gold is going to do next week, and what the price of gold will be at closing time next friday?
> 
> Ps if it will make you happy tell me what your native language is and i will insult you in it.



my native language is hebrew.
Do u have a problem with jews also?
And try and insult me .


----------



## dogcom

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Let me put on the Truth Tiara:
> 
> Last week I bought some Sprott Physical Gold fund purely on the technical action. I expected it to bounce off support at the 1550 level or thereabouts as it had done three times already.
> 
> I was dead wrong and lost on the position.
> 
> Some internet research convinced me that the present price is too low. The whole world is buying gold, physical gold not paper. The paper market must either reflect the reality of the marketplace (go up) or decouple from reality, resulting in a 2 tier price structure, one for the paper markets and another for physical. In other words it will no longer be possible to buy on the London or New York markets and take delivery. I don't believe this is possible without shutting down every precious metals paper market.
> 
> So, I bought more paper gold - but hedged my position with some July puts. I will know in a few weeks whether I am right or wrong. If the answer is up I can sell the puts, if down I can keep the puts and sell the ETFs.
> 
> In the meantime I stand to lose a few hundred dollars at most, and that is only if the gold markets go sideways for 3 months and if that happens you can wrap me in tinfoil and bake me for a potato.
> 
> (By the way if the PM markets go sideways for 3 months options will get dirt cheap. That will also be a good time to prepare for a breakout)
> 
> PS I still have my phys under lock and key. I still regard it as savings not to be touched until interest rates go up or the world's bankers and governments turn honest.The paper speculation is separate.
> 
> PPS The markets are so manipulated the old rules don't hold water the way they used to, either technical or fundamental. But the Comex has been running down their stocks of gold and silver so that should have given me a clue. On the other hand Goldman Sachs told their muppets (their word not mine) to sell gold so naturally I thought it was going up. I still think you can make money fadeing Goldman's tips, 9 times out of 10.


The paper market is almost broken and shouldn't be traded in my opinion. The powers around the western world are coming apart and part of the fight to stay alive is screwing with the COMEX. Like you said the COMEX can't deliver and the physical market is on fire. There is no smart money just manipulation and knowing what will happen next because if there was such a thing as smart money paper gold and silver would be a screaming buy under these conditions even before the takedown.


----------



## Islenska

Dear negotiator

I'm a semi-retired pharmacist, just noticed these posts. Please have your medications reviewed, a doseage imbalance I presume.

Taking too much of one med may cause a mood swing in your daily performance

Also avoid excessive sun exposure esp in the spring

You will get better, just believe in your new regimen.......


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I'm a bad one all right. If you attack me I defend myself.

Speaking of open interest and commitment of traders. Since last October the price of gold has been slowly declining and along with it, the open interest. This is normal, less participants and less contracts goes with falling interest and falling prices.

A week from last Friday there was unusual activity in gold. Someone sold $5 billion of gold at one time, smashing the market. Then followed up with another $15 billion, smashing it farther. This drove the price below support, triggering a sell off in stoploss orders. Next came the margin calls and the selling of thousands of contracts. On Friday and Monday gold dropped over $200.

All this should have reduced the open interest but it didn't. In fact in the last week the commercials and large traders increased their positions. Only the small traders interest is smaller, indicating the number that were stopped out or scared out of the market.

This tells me the fall in prices was not the result of large dumping of positions. On the contrary, it was the result of opening new positions.

This suggests the market is not dying. Traders are not losing interest in gold. On the contrary, someone has pushed it down by short selling and then started buying at the bottom, covering their shorts and getting long. This accounts for the steady rise from Tuesday to the present time, a rise of nearly $80 per ounce.

That is how I read it. I could be completely wrong and they could be getting set for another leg down. But the selling by the public is not there, on the contrary the public is buying in the physical market in other words retail buyers of gold coins, jewelry, gold bars etc around the world. This must eventually result in dealers buying in the gold markets.

if there is another leg down it will be because the big boys drive it down. Not because the public is selling gold. If they drive the price down more, the whole world will buy gold. There is not enough gold in the world to supply the demand, there is already 100 ounces of paper gold contracts for every ounce of physical gold. The price must rise, or the exchanges must refuse to deliver the gold, and change the rules so all transactions are settled in cash.

Like I said before I could be completely wrong. But you asked for my opinion and here it is.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

When you have strong support going back more than a year, as you had in gold at 1550 it takes a lot to break through. But once the support is broken you usually see quite a run to the down side.

This is what I expected. But after checking around, it appears the break through was not natural, it was engineered. And there is a lot of demand for gold at such a low price.

So from a technical standpoint gold should drop more, and keep dropping for months. But from a fundamental standpoint it seems impossible for the price to drop farther or even stay at the present level.

This is what I mean by the old rules being broken. The present market does not make sense, technically or fundamentally. So how are you supposed to figure it out?

My reasoning is that the fundamental demand must drive the price up eventually but in the short term we may see another drop.

So, I positioned myself for a rise but bought insurance in case of a drop.

Either way it's a wild ride.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

It's OK if you don't want to tell me what the COT is saying. I know the kind of data you back up your posts with lol.


----------



## Sampson

Ibl


----------



## thenegotiator

Rusty O'Toole said:


> It's OK if you don't want to tell me what the COT is saying. I know the kind of data you back up your posts with lol.


keep on with ur lol lol..

keep up insulting me.
it is data like this which obviously means nothing if u have no further data at hand that lets me trade futures.
even though I DO NOT TRADE GOLD FUTURES .
but i do not expect you to understand it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/met...&floorContractCd=GCM3&expMonth=201306&prodid=
by the way this link is free.
in September every jerkoff on earth will have to pay a subscription that i already pay to trade eminis in natural gas JUST TO BE ABLE to see this in real time.
check the prices urself so u can keep up ur great work.
keep up the bang up job.
that is definitely going to help ya .
and then i get cryptic symbols from SAMPSON.
Hilarious


----------



## Sampson

I (in) B (before) L (lock)

thenegotiator, I've never addressed you in any single post in my life, why would you assume my post was directed at you?

I suspect some of the most recent conversation contravenes a few forum rules. I have no comment on your posts, nor anyone elses, nor on gold for that matter, I just suspect some of these posts will get removed pretty soon here.


----------



## Homerhomer

LOL, that has really picked my interest, I even took negotiator off my ignore list just to see what caused such a meltdown.
Monday morning popcorn ;-)


----------



## webber22

If the mods aren't going to ban the negotiator, then he'll hold the record for the ignore list


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

Oh boy. Offending posts have been deleted and thenegotiator banned.


----------



## Nemo2

CanadianCapitalist said:


> Oh boy. Offending posts have been deleted and thenegotiator banned.


Bummer...I kinda enjoyed the negotiator's (usual) posts, (the last couple rants, not so much).


----------



## Homerhomer

Nemo2 said:


> Bummer...I kinda enjoyed the negotiator's (usual) posts, (the last couple rants, not so much).


Don't worry, he will come back under World Peace handle ;-)


----------



## humble_pie

banned again? that was newbie/nego's 3rd incarnation

do u think he'll manage to squeak back in under another username? previously he's been banned as newbie & somethingmoney

apparently newbie/nego has a vast range of IP addys as well each:

i'm betting there will be 9 lives so regret not, Nemo, your friend is going to find a way to climb back in each:

CC i think u did the right thing but as a publisher u must admit some spice & vinegar is good for readership stats each:


----------



## Toronto.gal

Nemo2 said:


> Bummer...I kinda enjoyed the negotiator's (usual) posts, (the last couple rants, not so much).


Ditto.

I'm down a little less today than I was last week with my golden stocks. :encouragement:


----------



## Sampson

It was apparent that someone would be awaiting a nice surprise of colourful messages when they checked the board this morning. Probably one of the more spicy discussion this forum has seen.


----------



## webber22

This is a great site where you get a wide range of expertise, TN certainly added his spices into the mix, sometimes a little too much pepper.

Hold on, a new user PEANUTBUTTER has just joined, maybe that's him. We'll see if the flavour will be smoothy or nutty :chuncky:

Gold stocks are on fire :encouragement:


----------



## fatcat

i guess i don't text enough to actually understand what the negotiator was really saying ...


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Oh well it was fun while it lasted.


----------



## Islenska

If you can't take advice from a pharmacist who can you take it from?


----------



## Nemo2

fatcat said:


> i guess i don't text enough to actually understand what the negotiator was really saying ...


I don't text, period; don't even have a cell phone, (and generally let the machine pick up our land line calls), and his posts were very cryptic...but they did generate thoughts, (even if the 'answers' I came up with were wrong). :chuncky:


----------



## lonewolf

Maybe I miss understood but from one of the posts I read that was latter deleted Thenegotiator used the open interest to come to the conclusion gold had put in an important top. Iam disapointed that thenegotiator gave CC no choice but to be banned because I would have liked to have known how he came to that conclusion. I think the 9yr cycle in gold that bottomed in 08 has topped, this years low broke below last years low. 

Jake Burnstein was on Yorba a week or so ago & I think his primary focus is on cycles, seasonals & open interest yet he thinks the bull market in gold is not over. My cycle work indicates gold has put in a major top. When I looked @ the commitment of traders report the commercials were net short & the speculators were net long so I do not know what Jake sees.

I dont have much experience with commitment of traders report so do not know if the numbers are @ extreams or if they are in a normal range & the data is neutral. Be nice to see a long term chart that shows price & positions held by the commercials, & small & large speculators.

From my experience there is almost always a lot of stress when someone talks of a very good indicator that signals a major & or a historcal important high or low in a market @ or near the time it occurs. This time might be no differnt, If the jaws of death pattern tops the dow & gold has put in a major high there will be 2 examples of the tension that develops.

Rustys use of the 50day & 200day moving average that he mentioned using for the S&P would have worked well in the gold market as well.


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

Lone wolf what do you consider the major top?

I thought gold topped at over 1900 per ounce in August 2011. Since then it has gone sideways between 1550 and 1800, bouncing off support and resistance 3 times.

When it broke through support and kept going down, normally that would mean a new down trend that would continue for several months and hundreds of $$$ down.

But in this case I don't see how a major drop is possible, in the face of public demand for physical at these fire sale prices, plus the loss of the Kennecott mine, and taking into consideration hundreds of tons of gold purchased by India and China in the past year, effectively locked away and taken off the market permanently.

In other words, technically this is a clear a down trend as you are likely to see while from a fundamental standpoint the only way is up. 

One thing that can cause confusion, I am talking about a time frame of several months to a year, maybe more. To someone who is day trading this is all meaningless. They have their eye on much shorter term indicators. While to me, they are trying to tell the date by watching the second hand on the watch. To them I am trying to time a 100 yard dash with a calendar.

I admit I am an amateur so if anyone can make sense of the gold market I would like to hear it.


----------



## lonewolf

Rusty

There is a nine year cycle in gold that consists of 9 yearly cycles (which are a little less then a year) All 9 year cycles except for the last one that ended in 2008 topped in either the 3rd or 4th yearly cycle of the 9 year cycle. We went below the last yearly cycle low.

This info came from a market letter I used to subscribe to but cancalled about a year & half ago. This guy nailed the 2000 top in stocks the bottom in 2002 then the rally in stocks. Nailed the top in stocks in 2007 & the comodity crash in 08 & the low in 2009. Then the rally after. Being 2012 now I think we most likely past the top of the 4th yearly cycle.


----------



## lonewolf

Rusty

You want to invest/trade with a completely rational program based on reasonable probabilities without allowing greed, fear, your extraneous opinions or irrelivent judgement to interfere.

Your enemy is "social dependency" that makes you think the way your fellows do & when you do that be prepared to lose money in the market.

@ least using your moving averages, you have a basis that makes winning posssible.


----------



## lonewolf

"social dependency" is my enemy & the enemy to all traders


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

I'm afraid if you invest rationally in irrational markets, you will find the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.


----------



## lonewolf

the market is the market, It can not be something differnt @ the same time & in the same respect. Invest rationaly based on what the market is. irrational investing is investing on what the market is not.

Go small, plant a mustard seed a traders system will most likely not be perfect, if there is an edge it will grow & multiply if no edge the loss is small.


----------



## dogcom

Rusty you might like this article it just explains that the CRIMEX is finished and all they can do is settle in cash and play games to try to stay alive. If you want paper assets I believe CEF is OK and I would think you have little choice but to go to gold stocks because at least they have inventory in the ground.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ates_On_The_LBMA_Default_&_Ensuing_Panic.html


----------



## Rusty O'Toole

If this is true it means a 2 tier market for gold. A completely fake paper market and the real thing. I don't see how that is sustainable.


----------



## Belguy

Barrick founder and chairman no gold bug:

http://www.thestar.com/business/201...inst_irrational_exuberance_in_gold_olive.html


----------



## alingva

Quite interesting set of different infographics about gold/silver/platinum etc including cost of mining and cost of different things in terms of gold
http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/the_golden_ratio_using_gold_to_price_market_data_b-24.html

http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/gold_is_a_bubble..or_is_not_itʔ_b-19.html

http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/all_the_gold_ever_minedvisualized_in_bullion_bars_b-15.html

http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/the_gold_series_(4_parts)_b-26.html


----------



## fatcat

alingva said:


> Quite interesting set of different infographics about gold/silver/platinum etc including cost of mining and cost of different things in terms of gold
> http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/the_golden_ratio_using_gold_to_price_market_data_b-24.html
> 
> http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/gold_is_a_bubble..or_is_not_itʔ_b-19.html
> 
> http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/all_the_gold_ever_minedvisualized_in_bullion_bars_b-15.html
> 
> http://moneyinside.ca/blog/finance/the_gold_series_(4_parts)_b-26.html


interesting and very well done charts ... on me they had the opposite of their (presumably) intended effect, it didn't make me want to buy more gold (i have shares and physical), it made wonder _what is wrong with gold_ since the charts should compel a stronger holding for gold and higher prices

my answer is that gold is now competing against many other currencies (including bitcoin which today hit a new high)

as long as there are perceived to be good, viable currencies around, gold will languish ... after all, other than jewelry and some few industrial uses gold has no real uses and it presents all kinds of problems and risks to hold in the form of transport and storage

but goldbugs who really do have a kind of obsessive/compulsive illness for gold (which occasionally i catch) will continue to feverishly produce endless web sites charts and graphs that say why we MUST own gold ...


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## liquidfinance

What do we think of gold at the minute. Is it worth adding a gold component at current price levels?


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## gardner

Gold has a yield, above inflation, of 0. The price is really driven by speculation more than real economics.
My feeling is that:
if you want to hold gold as a currency hedge, then instead diversify currencies to USD, CHF, JPY use them to hold something that has a non-zero yield; and
if you are worried about the coming apocalypse, then buy AK47s to bury in your back garden. After the apocalypse they can be leveraged into whatever you need.


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## fatcat

gardner said:


> Gold has a yield, above inflation, of 0. The price is really driven by speculation more than real economics.
> My feeling is that:
> if you want to hold gold as a currency hedge, then instead diversify currencies to USD, CHF, JPY use them to hold something that has a non-zero yield; and
> if you are worried about the coming apocalypse, then buy AK47s to bury in your back garden. After the apocalypse they can be leveraged into whatever you need.


well said ...


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## HaroldCrump

gardner said:


> if you want to hold gold as a currency hedge, then instead diversify currencies to USD, CHF, JPY use them to hold something that has a non-zero yield; and


All of those currencies have 0 real yields, and in fact negative real yields.
Perhaps CHF may be barely marginally above 0, but it will soon be at zero as soon as they begin printing more to match the coming Q/E by the ECB.
At this point, only a few selected emerging market currencies have positive real yields.


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## gardner

HaroldCrump said:


> All of those currencies have 0 real yields, and in fact negative real yields.


Well, of course the currency itself would have no yield. But you would hold some performing asset denominated in USD, CHF or what have you -- bonds, GICs, CDs, equity -- whatever. Not just a pile of bank notes in paper bag under your mattress.


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## HaroldCrump

gardner said:


> Well, of course the currency itself would have no yield. But you would hold some performing asset denominated in USD, CHF or what have you -- bonds, GICs, CDs, equity -- whatever. Not just a pile of bank notes in paper bag under your mattress.


But that is what I meant...those currencies do not offer you any positive real yield in a savings or MM account.
The instruments you are referring to have different sets of risks, such as equity has market risk, GICs have interest rate risk, bonds have credit risk in addition to rate risk, etc.


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## mgr1397

What's the outlook on gold? Are we going to see a stop in falling prices anytime soon?


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## dubmac

mgr1397 said:


> What's the outlook on gold? Are we going to see a stop in falling prices anytime soon?


who knows.
Gold prices seem to correlate with inflation & global tensions. The only one that seems to be brooding now are global tensions - Ukraine and ISIL/Syria. If things blow up, then maybe gold will too - right now, things are boring and inflation seems not a threat.


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## james4beach

Gold is performing more or less like commodities in general. I don't know why people tend to focus on gold as if it's falling in isolation. Commodities, broadly, have been plummeting for a while now. The broad commodities index I watch ($CCI) is making lower lows and is now at a multi-year low.

The question you have to ask yourself is, if the global economy really is growing and the outlook is very positive, then why are commodities at 3 year lows and still falling more?

The stock market and commodities market have a huge divergence between them: they are telling different messages.


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## fatcat

james4beach said:


> Gold is performing more or less like commodities in general. I don't know why people tend to focus on gold as if it's falling in isolation. Commodities, broadly, have been plummeting for a while now. The broad commodities index I watch ($CCI) is making lower lows and is now at a multi-year low.
> 
> The question you have to ask yourself is, if the global economy really is growing and the outlook is very positive, then why are commodities at 3 year lows and still falling more?
> 
> The stock market and commodities market have a huge divergence between them: they are telling different messages.


the correlation between stocks and commodities has historically been low though lately is moving higher ... i think that the correlation or lack thereof doesn't say much about global economic growth

i think it really comes down to china and the uncertainty about its current economic health

china swallows such a large share of commodities that any hiccup there will be felt worldwide


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## humble_pie

james4beach said:


> Gold is performing more or less like commodities in general. I don't know why people tend to focus on gold as if it's falling in isolation. Commodities, broadly, have been plummeting for a while now. The broad commodities index I watch ($CCI) is making lower lows and is now at a multi-year low.
> 
> The question you have to ask yourself is, if the global economy really is growing and the outlook is very positive, then why are commodities at 3 year lows and still falling more?
> 
> The stock market and commodities market have a huge divergence between them: they are telling different messages.



by coincidence, i was just posting this same thought on the CPG stock thread, in answer to a knowledgeable party who said that plunging oil prices are nothing to worry about at present.

however, one could say that some worrisome signs are suggesting a period of commodity & resource deflation. Not a hiccup, but a more prolonged & typical trough of perhaps 18 months, give or take 6 months on either side. 

as always, the health of doctor Copper is to be anxiously inspected. As goes dr. copper, so goes the global economy.
.









.


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## dubmac

fatcat said:


> the correlation between stocks and commodities has historically been low though lately is moving higher ... i think that the correlation or lack thereof doesn't say much about global economic growth
> 
> i think it really comes down to china and the uncertainty about its current economic health
> 
> china swallows such a large share of commodities that any hiccup there will be felt worldwide



so true.
Teck (TCK.B) is way down and may well break 20 soon. Apparently - something like 42% of their product (coking coal) goes to China! Where China goes, Teck follows.


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## humble_pie

the globe wraps up how canadian miners are reeling from china's withdrawal as raw materials buyer:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ply-of-metals-price-collapse/article20749933/

_“We are not seeing any kind of major upturn for some time. Unless there was some miracle, if India becomes the new China. But we are not predicting that ... It will be a while before we see a boom again"_

- Fabien Jurdant, chief operating officer CRU Consulting, a global commodities advisor


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## fatcat

i tend to look at uranium as a japan story but i wonder whether this slowdown (if it is in fact true since i tend to view china as basically functioning under a large black veil through which we get only glimpses) will hit uranium as well ?


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## humble_pie

i think of uranium as a big china story also, what with the 40 plus reactors they're building.

the globe story highlights how china has been able to stockpile considerable quantities of raw metals, therefore doesn't need to buy on world markets for a while.

i don't know exactly - as you say, a heavy veil is always drawn over the Middle Kingdom - but would there be any reason why china would not have stockpiled uranium as well? the last big sales of enriched uranium were from the last of the stored russian weapons; these sales are said to have concluded but no reason why china would not have laid in a considerable inventory for herself ...

storage of weapons uranium would be expensive & risky. However - if you stop to think about it - china & russia are getting so chummy these days that storage on china's behalf could possibly have been arranged right in the original russian storage silos, until such time as china would need her yellow cake ...

globe's article says there is a substantial oversupply of metallurgical coal (used in china's steel industry.) It doesn't say anything about coking coal (used currently to power china's hydro plants) but perhaps one can assume ample inventories are also on hand.

article also recites how oversupplies are due to many new mines that have recently been built. The metal industry is always like this, boom or bust. The problem is that the bust periods - during which a planet with little economic growth tries to sop up all the extra raw materials on hand - tend to last a fair length of time. They are not hiccups.


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## fatcat

humble_pie said:


> i think of uranium as a big china story also, what with the 40 plus reactors they're building.
> 
> the globe story highlights how china has been able to stockpile considerable quantities of raw metals, therefore doesn't need to buy on world markets for a while.
> 
> i don't know exactly - as you say, a heavy veil is always drawn over the Middle Kingdom - but would there be any reason why china would not have stockpiled uranium as well? the last big sales of enriched uranium were from the last of the stored russian weapons; these sales are said to have concluded but no reason why china would not have laid in a considerable inventory for herself ...
> 
> storage of weapons uranium would be expensive & risky. However - if you stop to think about it - china & russia are getting so chummy these days that storage on china's behalf could possibly have been arranged right in the original russian storage silos, until such time as china would need her yellow cake ...
> 
> globe's article says there is a substantial oversupply of metallurgical coal (used in china's steel industry.) It doesn't say anything about coking coal (used currently to power china's hydro plants) but perhaps one can assume ample inventories are also on hand.
> 
> article also recites how oversupplies are due to many new mines that have recently been built. The metal industry is always like this, boom or bust. The problem is that the bust periods - during which a planet with little economic growth tries to sop up all the extra raw materials on hand - tend to last a fair length of time. They are not hiccups.


right, other than 4 canadian oil producers (su,hse,cpg,cve) i only own cameco and that is the extent of my commodities

i have been vacillating on cameco since i know it is has some of the best uranium assets in the world but everyone is sitting around waiting for the japanese ... is that like waiting for godot ? ... it feels like it

i am down but i have seen cameco go up then down then up then down

i keep thinking i should sell cameco on the us side and buy starbucks ...

they sell a commodity don't they ? :biggrin: ... is it also in trouble ? :hopelessness::frown:


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## humble_pie

coffee, now there's another quixotic commodity.

i read there is a coffee shortage or a coffee shortage is expected this crop year. But my favourite coffee beans keep going on sale, indicating plenty supply (?)

in cameco these days i just keep on selling a few naked US puts. The premiums for these are fairly decent - probably because of quixotic - so i'm content. In the past i've had other kinds of CCJ option strategies.


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## lonewolf

humble_pie said:


> i think of uranium as a big china story also, what with the 40 plus reactors they're building.
> 
> the globe story highlights how china has been able to stockpile considerable quantities of raw metals, therefore doesn't need to buy on world markets for a while.
> 
> i don't know exactly - as you say, a heavy veil is always drawn over the Middle Kingdom - but would there be any reason why china would not have stockpiled uranium as well? the last big sales of enriched uranium were from the last of the stored russian weapons; these sales are said to have concluded but no reason why china would not have laid in a considerable inventory for herself ...
> 
> storage of weapons uranium would be expensive & risky. However - if you stop to think about it - china & russia are getting so chummy these days that storage on china's behalf could possibly have been arranged right in the original russian storage silos, until such time as china would need her yellow cake ...
> 
> globe's article says there is a substantial oversupply of metallurgical coal (used in china's steel industry.) It doesn't say anything about coking coal (used currently to power china's hydro plants) but perhaps one can assume ample inventories are also on hand.
> 
> article also recites how oversupplies are due to many new mines that have recently been built. The metal industry is always like this, boom or bust. The problem is that the bust periods - during which a planet with little economic growth tries to sop up all the extra raw materials on hand - tend to last a fair length of time. They are not hiccups.


 I say take the other side of the trade bet on deflation.

Along with yellow snow do not eat yellow cake. @ least with yellow cake there should be no problem having it without eating it


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## HaroldCrump

james4beach said:


> The question you have to ask yourself is, if the global economy really is growing and the outlook is very positive, then why are commodities at 3 year lows and still falling more?
> The stock market and commodities market have a huge divergence between them: they are telling different messages.


Gold is linked negatively to the USD$.
USD has strengthened significantly in the last few months, therefore, gold has fallen in nominal value.
If you believe the USD will head lower from here, buy gold.
If you believe the USD will stay strong relative to EUR, Y, CAD, AUD, and other major currencies, then don't buy gold.

The accumulation for the so-called "Indian wedding season" has already started, yet, the sheer strength of the USD has kept the nominal price of gold down.
There has to be some external factor that creates significant fundamental demand for gold to move up in spite of USD strength.

Lastly, it is in the interest of all major central banks right now for gold prices to stay low.
It protects the USD$ _and _it allows the Chinese to increase their reserves.
Therefore, right now, no major player has any interest in seeing the price of gold rise.


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## dogcom

I think you have it completely right Haroldcrump, that is exactly the reason gold stays down with a floor of physical buying. I think Russia however wants to pull the plug on the western scheme but China being the patient one keeps them in line.


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