# CMF: You decide if I Sell or Hold ABX.N



## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

Hey folks, so I made a bad trade. I bought into ABX.N @ 35.80 (1000 Shares), now I am down approximately 36%, as it is currently sitting at 22.62, a paper lost of ~13,200. I am unsure of what to do, and is wondering what individual members of this fourm might do if you were in my shoes.

I currently do not need access to this money, and believe that I would be comfortable having it sit long term for a period of 15 years, as I am 27 years of age. I figured that I could just collect the dividends in the mean time (0.80 anually) and just hope I make the principle back and then some in the future. 

I should also discloused that I am also holding GG.N @ 33.10 (1000 shares). So I am quite overweighed in the PM sector. 

I also hold TCK.B and SU both at 1000 shares in the price range of the low 30's. It doesnt take a genuis to figure that I am underwater.

At the moment I still have approximately 40k in cash.

Taking all of this in consideration... if you were in my shoes... would you SELL/ HOLD/ or ADD to my position of ABX. I feel that the ladder is most undesirable. But what would you do and why?

And MODS if you can add a voting poll to this thread that would be great!! I cant figure out how. 

Much love to a great community.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I would say sell or hold are your two viable options. On my losing positions, if I can use the capital losses to offset capital gains, I will often take the loss and reduce my tax hit. This might be a strategy if you have other capital gains, although I don't know if you do. You could also wait until the fall and see what happens. ABX will need a recovery in the gold price to recover it's stock value. Given all of the inflation in the world, it's probably more likely to go up than down, provided all of the bad news about their mine in Chile is now reflected in the price. 

Personally, I don't hold any gold or other mining stocks, as gold can be volatile and gold stocks even more so.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

I would keep the Teck...CP is building a lot of cars to haul coal ...I'm not so sure about Barrick 
I would use a portion of your 40k to buy a bottle of Crown Royale and try forget about your capital losses.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

From my limited experience, knowledge, I would just do nothing. Keep what you have and wait.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

> Hey folks, so I made a bad trade. I bought into ABX.N @ 35.80 (1000 Shares), now I am down approximately 36%, as it is currently sitting at 22.62, a paper lost of ~13,200. I am unsure of what to do, and is wondering what individual members of this fourm might do if you were in my shoes.
> 
> I currently do not need access to this money, and believe that I would be comfortable having it sit long term for a period of 15 years, as I am 27 years of age. I figured that I could just collect the dividends in the mean time (0.80 anually) and just hope I make the principle back and then some in the future.


 I'm really not sure what you should do about Barrick? Just from a math perspective....your position in Barrick would have to go up by 58.26% just to get back to your ABX buy price of 35.80.

IMHO you'll never break even on Barrick.


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## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

Squash500 said:


> I'm really not sure what you should do about Barrick? Just from a math perspective....your position in Barrick would have to go up by 58.26% just to get back to your ABX buy price of 35.80.
> 
> IMHO you'll never break even on Barrick.


How do you figure that? I m down 36%on it.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

logicfirst said:


> How do you figure that? I m down 36%on it.


 LF...here's how you figure it out. 35.80-13.18=22.62. Therefore your ABX position is now only worth 22.62. To get back to your original ABX purchase price of 35.80...ABX has to go from 22.62 to 35.80.

Therefore 13.18/22.62=approx 58.26%.


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

I'd sell first thing in the morning and short ABX a broker friend suggested yesterday that the bottom line is going to be 13.00 

They have huge issues in South America more than most realize. 

Peter Monk bailed early.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Squash500 said:


> Therefore 13.18/22.62=approx 58.26%.


It's 13.18: *$35.80*, the purchased price, not the current price, so OP is down 36.815%.

On Friday, ABX & Goldcorp hit a 10 & 5 year low respectively.

Daniel, do you believe what your friend is telling you? ABX was trading @ $13 in 1986. The company is full of problems, but it is the world's largest gold miner.

You played it risky LF, and now you find yourself in this mess, but as you said that you don't need the money for years, think carefully before you start panic selling.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

Toronto.gal said:


> It's 13.18: *$35.80*, the purchased price, not the current price, so OP is down 36.815%.
> 
> On Friday, ABX & Goldcorp hit a 10 & 5 year low respectively.
> 
> ...


Your wrong. ABX has to go up by 58.26% for the OP just to break even. The purchased price is no longer relevant....it's the current price that must be looked at.


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## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

T.Gal and Squash: you are talking past each other. You are both right.

The OP is down 36.815%. To break even, the stock has to go up 58.26%.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Yes, you are right, my apologies Squash!

There is a reason why I hardly ever participate here at night, and should be sleeping by now. :rolleyes2:

I was thinking about how much he's down, but you're absolutely correct that the stock must now rise $13.18 to reach his purchase price, hence 58.26% of $22.62 = $35.80.

Good night!


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## lonewolf (Jun 12, 2012)

If your going to base selling based on a poll. Do the complete oppossite of the consensus


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## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

Hummm...well if abx are at these levels are others getting in? The gold futures are looking nasty too, but cmf has covered the price of gold extensively. I seriously dont know what to do. At the same time i dont need the money, but would hate to see it decline/ errod even further. Do i liquidate that 22k or have it stuck for the next 15 years?


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## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

lonewolf said:


> If your going to base selling based on a poll. Do the complete oppossite of the consensus


If there was only a consensus...


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## donald (Apr 18, 2011)

Why does it have to be all or nothing?I Sell half the position(It ain't pretty but it is better than to sell all the shares-your longterm anyways)I would recharge myself and plan anew(ease abit of the emotions).This is just me but by what your wrote(not sure how much you have in your portf)Your risk-management seems like the bigger problem.Don't buy individual stocks over 10% of your port......ratchet the risk down(i would on everything)Seems like your trying to hit homeruns and this is the other side of that problem(example 125k-buy positions in the 8k)You will sleep better and loses won't hurt so much like now.M.o


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> It's 13.18: *$35.80*, the purchased price, not the current price, so OP is down 36.815%.
> 
> On Friday, ABX & Goldcorp hit a 10 & 5 year low respectively.
> 
> ...


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

I think donald has some great advice and something you can look at going forward. Also you can apply the same thing to each sector.. so cap energy at 10% max of portfolio... gold stocks 10% max of your portfolio.. etc. 

I think Suncor is one stock you can wait to ride out, it may take a while but there are some things to look forward to, they are integrated and if pipelines are approved, this should help too.


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## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

donald said:


> Why does it have to be all or nothing?I Sell half the position(It ain't pretty but it is better than to sell all the shares-your longterm anyways)I would recharge myself and plan anew(ease abit of the emotions).This is just me but by what your wrote(not sure how much you have in your portf)Your risk-management seems like the bigger problem.Don't buy individual stocks over 10% of your port......ratchet the risk down(i would on everything)Seems like your trying to hit homeruns and this is the other side of that problem(example 125k-buy positions in the 8k)You will sleep better and loses won't hurt so much like now.M.o


Thanks donald for the constructive advice. You are absolutely right about my risk-management. I was always under the impression that because I am young I am able to take on greater risk in the pursuit of some fast money, now I just realize how reckless I am. I think from this point on I am going to keep my purchases at the 8k mark as you have suggested.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

If ABX hits 13.00, then it's yield would be 6.2%!
('course, I doubt they'd keep the distribution with the ongoing mayhem)


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

Keep collecting the dividends in the meantime, but I would hold onto it. Especially since you don't need the money! A similar thing happened to me 2 years ago. I'm still collecting the dividends even though the losses are still there. Don't stress, you'll make it up in the long run.


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

Not with ABX I'm afraid .

Watch it continue down in the coming days.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

on one hand you're down too much so might as well hold it..... on the other hand what if you take that loss, invest it somewhere else and earn more... I don't think there's an easy answer here... That's why I stay out of gold, you just don't know what the true value of it is, it's all speculation...


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

You did what most do, get into a hot area to late.

These are good company's that are likely to be down for a bit. Consider Avg. down. Most just do it. I say do the math, total cost you have invested now and how much affect X amount of money will do.

If these weren't good company's I would never avg. down.

Here's what you should do any age. Get a rock solid base of high quality company's or ETF then get some growth stock/gold. I wouldn't invest 1 cent in gold. Then take 5% for elevator stocks you know your brothers uncles 3rd cousin knows a great stock.


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## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

What would you do if you didn't own ABX right now? Would you buy it or would you pass? What you bought it for should play no role in whether or not you should sell or not (with the exception of end of year tax planning).

I had zero gold exposure going into today and decided to jump in with both feet at the close at C$19.25.


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## Squash500 (May 16, 2009)

atrp2biz said:


> What would you do if you didn't own ABX right now? Would you buy it or would you pass? What you bought it for should play no role in whether or not you should sell or not (with the exception of end of year tax planning).
> 
> I had zero gold exposure going into today and decided to jump in with both feet at the close at C$19.25.


 Gutsy move. Good luck---LOL. If things keep going this bad.....Barrick will probably cut their dividend anyway? ABX has dropped over $10/share in the last month alone.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Squash500 said:


> Gutsy move. Good luck---LOL. If things keep going this bad.....Barrick will probably cut their dividend anyway? ABX has dropped over $10/share in the last month alone.


Things are not going well for them at all, but they are far from cutting the dividend.
I haven't bought yet but if it keeps dropping I will.


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

LogicFirst would you care to share as to what you have decided to do?


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## logicfirst (Aug 19, 2009)

I have sold all the shares at 21.10. I am going back to my roots of working more, spending less to rebuild my bankroll. Hell, i am still heavily invested, as described in my first post and is taking a beating, but i feel more comfortable holding them over abx at this time. Only time will tell if it was the right move.

I will be back in the game, i will recover from this lost, and I will do better next time. I ve never experience a lost like this, but i feel more discipline, and is excited to enter in new positions when the corrections subsides.


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