# LinkedIn (LNKD)



## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

LinkedID will be trading starting Thu. What do you think about this new stock? I have mixed feelings


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)

IMO anything that is being hyped up in the news is way overpriced, judging by the threads popping up in all the retail investing forums 

I'd rather invest in something beaten down in the news, or at least under the radar.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Here is artcle about it :
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-...-public-offering-a-rip-off/?cid=hp:mainpromo5

Interesting that there is "insider price" and "regular price"


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## dagman1 (Mar 3, 2010)

These valuations are a joke. Same goes for numbers being thrown around for Facebook, Groupon, et al. Problem is with all the hype none of these web 2.0 companies have figured out how to make money--their popularity is a direct result of them being free.

$4B valuation is what I last read, yet profits of something like $2M last year. I don't understand who is dumb enough to buy this company at this valuation.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

These web 2.0 tech companies get ridiculous valuations, look at Salesforce (CRM). Hard to say where this will end up tomorrow or 3 months from now. I'd buy some calls just cause there's a lot of dumb money in bubbles. But I also feel like shorting it.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

*IPO can lose 50% in just a few days!*

At $45 public price... it's a PE ratio of 250! It is 10x more expensive than Google. Have you heard of such Price-Earning ratio in any American stock? Even the high ones are still only around 100!

According to the news articles, they were valued at $22 / share in March, just 2 months ago. So they believe the shares have increased by 100% in 60 days?!

Most insiders get these shares for less than $10....

So why would you want to buy it from them at $45?

Another example of Social Network, Renren, Facebook of China was out a few days ago... all the hypes, the CEO sold hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares on the first day. It opened at $19.50, went up to $23, close at $18 same day, crashed to $13 something today... 33% of its opening price.

It is very possible LNKD will be in the twenties before June arrives. Buyer beware.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

I wrote about this today. The valuation on LNKD looks ridiculous. At $4.25 billion it is valued at 17x trailing sales and more than 1000x trailing earnings. The company made less than $2 million in the first nine months of 2010. 

Maybe LinkedIn has a very bright future. But its not the only one. Other companies are also valued at similar levels. In fact, I read an article that said that other companies will be valued high because of LinkedIn's valuation! It's a very good bet that there are going to be many dogs in these IPOs.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

in hour of trading Day's Range: 80.00 - 92.99


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Currently, trading at $88.50. So much for seeing over valuation at $45!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I bet they are partying like it is 2000 all over again.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Welcome to Bubble 2.0 !


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

$105.90. Wow!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Bubblelicious


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

No options available


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## ChrisR (Jul 13, 2009)

I'm in my mid 30's. I'm a professional. I'm interested in business and technology, and to top it off I'm a very heavy internet user.

Although I occasionally noticed the name grouped in with Facebook in some articles I apparently just skimmed over, I seriously thought that LinkedIn was just a spam website that collected information about people on the internet and sold it under the guise of being a "social networking site".

So do people actually think this is a serious business that will someday pay dividends? Or are we just witnessing the greater fool theory at its finest?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

It reminds me some Ponzi scheme 
Was wondering if anyone on this forim bought Linked today?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Investors have their pants wet cause its the first significant Silicon Valley IPO since Google. But yes, this is much more real than any Cdn tech company on the TSX Venture exchange. Some I know have gone to work for them in the last 2 years. They've even established an office here in Toronto last fall.

I personally can't justify the share price even taking into account future earnings growth. Will try to evaluate my options on May 27th.

I can also only expect similar reactions to IPOs from Facebook, Zynga, Groupon. Lots of fun coming these next few years.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Lets see this fall from now


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## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

Wow, stock closed at $94/share. 

I too thought this was a spam website. I got an email some how and put it right in my spam box.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

LinkedIn is real alright. I've been on it since 2005 and it is extremely useful to network. I've even received unsolicited job inquiries on it. The company's revenues are much diverse than websites that rely only on advertising. They make money as a job board and premium members who pay a subscription. I am sold on the company's potential. But the price looks far too rich to me.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

CanadianCapitalist said:


> I wrote about this today. The valuation on LNKD looks ridiculous. At $4.25 billion it is valued at 17x trailing sales and more than 1000x trailing earnings. The company made less than $2 million in the first nine months of 2010.
> 
> Maybe LinkedIn has a very bright future. But its not the only one. Other companies are also valued at similar levels. In fact, I read an article that said that other companies will be valued high because of LinkedIn's valuation! It's a very good bet that there are going to be many dogs in these IPOs.


So their market cap is about 9 billion dollars now, PE of 2000x

That is simply insane. How can people possibly buy this? $2 million profit for a $9,000 million company? Unless there is a jackpot, it takes a normal company 4500 years to build up such asset. Once you think about it, you start to see how ridiculous it is. You save $2 million per year, you need 4500 years to reach your current net worth... twice the age of Jesus!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Low flotation + hype is what made this move. 30 million total volume today, so every issued share traded hands 3x. I even heard they had trouble finding sellers at open. Extremely frothy. Exactly how the underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanely wanted it as they raced for the exit lol. It's going to work for awhile, but I can see a correction in the next few days or even weeks for at least one of these reasons: volume isn't going to be anywhere near as high, or volume is consistently this high and they need to increase liquidity by issuing more stock and diluting shares


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## webber22 (Mar 6, 2011)

This reminds me of the circus show called INT - Intertainment. They have an IPO everyday it seems


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Difference is LinkedIn is a real company with a proven and useful product with potential to displace services the likes of Monster Worldwide (MWW) and Taleo (TLEO). A lot of real people would get hurt if it went down. At least they came to the market with a few consecutive quarters of profit. Compared to the dozen or so scam artists at Intertainment who I can't really feel sympathy for. And the OSC doesn't seem to care either... maybe we'll hear about their investigation in 2013.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

Friday May 27. Options available for LNKD.

Funny line I came acrosss. Does a bear buy puts in the woods?

Will you?


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

anyone shorting this worthless stock ?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Not to 0 but shorting down to $15-25 seems logical. Trouble lies in calling the top. Was it today? how long can the craziness continue


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## Mockingbird (Apr 29, 2009)

Pretty good day trading stock. Unfortunately buy side only.
It felt like old days. 



larry81 said:


> anyone shorting this worthless stock ?


Good luck in borrowing this stock to short. It's an IPO.

MB


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

Goldman Sachs is the most influential investment bank at this time. Since they have already sold their shares... they may try to short the stock.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/05/19/goldman-leaves-linkedin-party-early/

It will be interesting to see what GS does in a few days.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

They will probably party and binge like its 2000 all over again


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## LondonHomes (Dec 29, 2010)

This price feels like the .com boom. I learned my lesson then to value stocks based on earnings multiples.

This price is pure speculation .... but another generation of investors needs to learn that 1 the hard way I think.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If I were the LinkedIn executives, I would be mighty upset at leaving so much money on the table. Clearly an IPO price of $70 would have been sustainable.

I have 215 business connections and have been a member for over 10 years. The facebook style of connecting was just added in the last five years. Before that it was a kind of competitor to Plaxo for keeping email addresses current.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

LondonHomes said:


> This price feels like the .com boom. I learned my lesson then to value stocks based on earnings multiples.
> 
> This price is pure speculation .... but another generation of investors needs to learn that 1 the hard way I think.


All stock market is speculation 

Today LNKD up another 6-8%, and you can clearly see support/resistance level. 
Guys who tookd the chance and jumped-in, got a very nice profit. Unfortunatelly, I got scared and missed perfect opportunity


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Gibor, how did you miss the opportunity? Did you have a chance to get it at IPO price? I always wonder how I can get in on the IPO of some of these companies. All I get is IPOs for these TSX companies from TD Waterhouse notifications.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

davext said:


> Gibor, how did you miss the opportunity? Did you have a chance to get it at IPO price? I always wonder how I can get in on the IPO of some of these companies. All I get is IPOs for these TSX companies from TD Waterhouse notifications.


I could've get regul over-counter price 9.30 in the morning.... who bought and sold next day , got nice profit... 
agree whit people who telling that this is a bubble, but all stock market is a bubble


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

I was told that Canadian brokerage firms cannot participate in US IPO pre-release purchase due to regulation. You need an American broker to get it. Even with an American broker, the chance is slim to none. Most of the shares are grabbed by the underwriters and insiders... if there is any leftover, it's an unpopular stock anyway.

So for a retail investor, especially in Canada, you can only buy it in regular / secondary stock exchange... In other words, LNKD opened at $85 and that would be first price available.

I tried to get in QIHU at $14 IPO price, no luck... it opened to about $30.

I also called some of these underwriters, like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley... the minimum investable asset to open an account to be "part of their family" is US$10 million. If you don't have $10 million, then they don't want to talk to you.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

Tomorrow's the big day



> The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) today announced it will list options on LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) beginning this Friday, May 27.
> 
> The contract specifications for LNKD options are as follows:
> 
> ...


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## atrp2biz (Sep 22, 2010)

I'm sure there will be many wanting to go long puts, which will also put upward pressure on the calls to maintain parity. I think the IV is going to be ridiculous.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Is there any proprietary protection to companies like this?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MoreMiles said:


> I was told that Canadian brokerage firms cannot participate in US IPO pre-release purchase due to regulation. You need an American broker to get it. Even with an American broker, the chance is slim to none. Most of the shares are grabbed by the underwriters and insiders... if there is any leftover, it's an unpopular stock anyway.
> 
> So for a retail investor, especially in Canada, you can only buy it in regular / secondary stock exchange... In other words, LNKD opened at $85 and that would be first price available.
> 
> ...


When I was able finally place trade on TDW to buy YNDX , it's price was already $35 (about 11am), some american guys were able to buy at $30


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> some american guys were able to buy at $30


You may too [or even lower] if you wait long enough. Just look at where many IPO's are at today.

Not a fair comparison, but ATH, DANG, GM, YOKU, come immediately to mind.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Toronto.gal said:


> You may too [or even lower] if you wait long enough. Just look at where many IPO's are at today.
> 
> Not a fair comparison, but ATH, DANG, GM, YOKU, come immediately to mind.


I meant on the launch day


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Ken gibor, I know what you meant, but what I meant is that you might have a 2nd shot at it, so don't despair.


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

IPO for YNDX was interesting... A few shares got traded at 9:30am, then there was a "halt", causing some panic. Then at 10:25am, news came out that it will start trading officially.

The opening bid was $35. If you had an open order, you probably got that price. I think some major shareholder did not sell right away at the opening... so a massive amount of shares were sold about 15 minutes after the opening. The price dropped from $35 to $30 within half hour. It almost killed the momentum... it was very poor timing. Then it bounced back again.

So the lucky ones got in at $30... if they sold at HOD of $39, it's a cool 30% profit for 3 hours of holding a trade.

Now... LNKD was even more interesting, it opened high and gaped up from $85 to $120 (40%) within 3 hours of trading before drifting down.

This is my IPO trading experience:
1. Canadian brokers are very poorly equipped for trading. You may have to phone in their trading desk because the symbol is not loaded in the trading platform.

2. Stop loss is not available because their software is not programed to handle it... so you have to stare at the screen non-stop, the only way to exit your position is to phone in.

3. You cannot buy any American IPO ahead, before it's opened to general trading.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MoreMiles said:


> 1. Canadian brokers are very poorly equipped for trading. You may have to phone in their trading desk because the symbol is not loaded in the trading platform.
> 
> 2. Stop loss is not available because their software is not programed to handle it... so you have to stare at the screen non-stop, the only way to exit your position is to phone in.
> 
> 3. You cannot buy any American IPO ahead, before it's opened to general trading.


That's true  . TDW was just giving error that YNDX ticker doesn't exists. BTW, not only Canadian, but also Americantrsde discount brokarage had same issue.
Calling in to buy/sell and monitor every minute - is not an option for me, I just will be fired


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

LNKD is now below the opening price of $85. Most retail investors will abandon it with a stop loss around 10% so it will go quickly around $76.

It will get interesting.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

77$ hahah


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## MoreMiles (Apr 20, 2011)

larry81 said:


> 77$ hahah


Oh boy, I'm good. It gets to that price within one day of my prediction. My put option is waiting to be cashed


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

just posted on "bag holder central" aka yahoo fianance board:



> let me guess, all you idiots out there shorting this are late middle aged or older who don't understand the power that linkedin has over many markets. they have a complete monopoly on the professional social networking marketing, they will probably put monster.com (MWW) out of business with their job search engine, and they have a huge customer base that unlike facebook, is made up of professionals willing to subscribe and pay to the service.
> 
> This could run to 200+ by the end of the summer and you idiots are buying $50 puts with IV of 95 or higher. Good luck with that one dummies.


This time its different !!!


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

How about this for a laugh

Three academics claim they designed a model that found a bubble in LinkedIn's shares during the first days of trading


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

Linked in was at $67 today. Seems like we're heading no where but down especially with more shares set to be released in the future? 

Is stock a candidate for shorting or buying some PUT options?

I was afraid to do anything with this stock because it was so volatile at the beginning and the number of shares is low so there is more volatility. Now it looks like it's following a steady down trend.


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## moneymusing (Apr 3, 2009)

The P/E tells the whole story really. There's no question that a 600 Forward P/E didn't make sense. With Facebook planning a $100bln IPO it would place them in around the 50 times earnings. 

No question there's a frothy tech market right now. If you look at the amounts of VC funding going on right now too things are going pretty wild. Color App had $41 million in initial funding for a mobile photo app that people don't really know how to use.

Prices aren't sustainable which is why I think that when the time comes for Facebook's IPO it won't be subject to the same mania that is happening today.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

davext said:


> Linked in was at $67 today. Seems like we're heading no where but down especially with more shares set to be released in the future?
> 
> Is stock a candidate for shorting or buying some PUT options?
> 
> I was afraid to do anything with this stock because it was so volatile at the beginning and the number of shares is low so there is more volatility. Now it looks like it's following a steady down trend.


From new IPO YNDX looks more stable and has clear support zone around $30


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## davext (Apr 11, 2010)

gibor said:


> From new IPO YNDX looks more stable and has clear support zone around $30


Does it really count as clear support? The stock hasn't been trading for long and it hasn't hovered around the $30 for that long either.

Could be still in a downtrend?


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

In case anyone feels like jumping in front of a moving train, LinkedIn has earnings tomorrow


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

This piece of **** stock will be at 5$ in a couple years.


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## rookie (Mar 19, 2010)

larry81 said:


> This piece of **** stock will be at 5$ in a couple years.


thats very optimistic. its worth 5 bucks NOW. i am not sure it will still exist in 2 yrs.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) said late Wednesday that it has priced its secondary offering of 8.75 million shares at $71 per share. The company is selling about 1.3 million shares with stockholders selling the remainder of the shares. Underwriters have been granted another 1.3 million shares to cover over-allotments. LinkedIn shares closed the regular session on Wednesday down 4.4% at $71.56. The stock is about 14% below its opening price of $83 on the day of its initial public offering in late May.

- Dan Gallagher; 415-439-6400; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-16-11 1944ET


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

If it is 600 times forward P/E, it's barely worth $1 let alone $5.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

In it's 8 month life, this overvalued stock's share price has held up fairly well.
However, I think, it's time to perform the 'short'. 
Earnings are Feb 09. Wish me luck.


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## killuminati (Mar 14, 2011)

doctrine said:


> If it is 600 times forward P/E, it's barely worth $1 let alone $5.


Its over 1400 now.... It keeps going up.

Do old metrics not apply to this stuff? I'm really new around here, didn't fully experience the last dot com bubble. Is this what things traded at back then because these numbers make no sense. On top of that its up over 18% on the year.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Bought 80 put for earnings. Feel like gambling today. I heard that if you attached LinkedIn's valuation to Apple, the latter would be worth $55k per share.


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## buhhy (Nov 23, 2011)

The LNKD puts have quite the premium .___.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

I 'm with you again Argo on this trade. 
I've sold 2 LNKD Feb 10th $75 calls @5.10


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

yep, I'll be taking a loss on this one. 
This almost wipes out my GRPN profit from yesterday.


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## buhhy (Nov 23, 2011)

Wow, that's quite the beat.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

buhhy said:


> Wow, that's quite the beat.


You missed the GRPN play, but aren't you glad you missed this one too.


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## Argonaut (Dec 7, 2010)

Woohoo! I blew my profit on Groupon one day later. I'm reminded of the story of the tortoise and the hare, thanks to someone here of course. Will be playing the tortoise for a while.


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## avrex (Nov 14, 2010)

LNKD down 45% today.

I still wouldn't buy it. :biggrin:


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

avrex said:


> LNKD down 45% today.
> 
> I still wouldn't buy it. :biggrin:


I was going to gamble on this one almost buying it at $170 in last August considering its competitive moat in professional social network. It went up till $250 but crashed to $100 now. Glad I did not gamble. Internet tech stock a scary gamble to do regardless whatever they are.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

They bought Lynda.com, which I think is a potentially a pretty good business. (High quality educational videos).


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

besmartrich said:


> I was going to gamble on this one almost buying it at $170 in last August considering its competitive moat in professional social network. It went up till $250 but crashed to $100 now. Glad I did not gamble. Internet tech stock a scary gamble to do regardless whatever they are.


The thing is, it doesn't matter how good your moat is when the stock price is 100 times earnings.


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## The_Tosser (Oct 20, 2015)

congrats, blind squirrels. 

MSFT fumbling around in the dark to find a business model and all that good stuff, rofl.


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## tark514 (Apr 8, 2016)

*2955*

Bought this one just Friday... price was too good to not buy. 50% return in 1 day best investment yet!

any news on close date?


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