# 2018 Predictions Contest



## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

*2018 Predictions Contest*
The predictions contest is on again! I am shifting the US from Dow to S&P 500 as a better measure of the market.

Please enter your guesses or forecasts for the values on December 31, 2018 in the following format:

S&P500: 
TSX: 
GOLD: 
OIL: 
CAD: 

with the dollar amounts in USD. The index is just that. No dollar value. The deadline is January 29 at 9:30 EST and the first results will be published after market close in January.

Results will be published monthly. If you decide to change your submission, please just edit the original submission before then. Good luck and happy investing.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

S&p500:2009
tsx:14321
gold:$1315
oil:$55.55
cad: $.72

(my divy income +9%)


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

S&P 500: 2,450
TSX: 15,300
Gold: $1,270
Oil: $59.25
CAD: $0.765


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

S&p500: 2,912
tsx: 16,312
gold: $1,312
oil: $61.23
cad: $0.8123


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## bumblebee (Jan 15, 2015)

S&p500: 2977
tsx: 16,521
gold: 1,398.10
oil: 67.77
cad: $0.777


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

S&P 500 -> 3000
TSX -> 20500
gold -> 950
oil -> 86
CAD -> 0.88

Just for laughs:

BitCoin -> $35000 USD


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## spiritwalker2222 (Nov 7, 2017)

S&P500: 2,800
TSX: 17,500
GOLD: $1300
OIL: $55.00
CAD: 0.76

Bitcoin: $350 ;-)


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## Earl (Apr 5, 2016)

S&P500: 2735
TSX: 17200
Gold: $1415
Oil: $58.50
CAD: $0.84


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## nortel'd (Mar 20, 2012)

I predict 
S&P 500:2800
TSX:	16500
GOLD:$1,275.00
OIL:	$60.00
CAD:	$0.73


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## Frank Drebin (May 10, 2015)

S&P - 2886
TSX - 17650
Oil - 77.75
CAD .82

Bit coin - $3350 after topping out at $28,800 on March 31.


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

S&p 2,730
tsx 16,687
gold 1,279
oil 64.56
cad 0.79


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

S&p 500:3100
tsx: 17000
gold:$1,200.00
oil: $68.00
cad: $0.76


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## Holland (Apr 24, 2016)

S&p 500:2,400
tsx: 15,400
gold:$1,400
oil: $54.00
cad: $0.74

bitcoin: $3,500


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## new dog (Jun 21, 2016)

tsx 17,300
S&P 2,350
gold 2,000
oil 70.00
cad 80.00


Bitcoin 50,000 even though I don't think it is worth much
Silver 75.00


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## ddivadius (Apr 28, 2017)

S&p500: 3107
tsx: 17069
gold: 1353
oil: 62.31
cad: 0.74


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

S&p500: 2925
tsx: 17500
gold: 1475
oil: 62
cad: 0.75


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Ok Mars have you heard about the previous winners handicap?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

S&P 500 = 2,970
TSX = 18,750
Gold = $1,400
Oil = $75
CAD = $0.82

Just for laughs:

ACB = Aurora Cannabis will be a $20 stock by the end of December 2018.


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## mars (Mar 11, 2014)

kcowan said:


> Ok Mars have you heard about the previous winners handicap?[
> 
> I think 2017 was a bit of beginners luck. Wish I would have picked up early on that the DOW was going to run the way it did. Although with the CDN $ moving it did reduce gains because of the exchange for us CDN investors.
> 
> Will see if I have the sophomores jinx.


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## tombiosis (Dec 18, 2010)

S&P: 3050
TSX: 15800
Gold: 1402
Oil: 77
CAD: 0.82


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## Butters (Apr 20, 2012)

S&P: 2,925
TSX: 17,600
Gold: 1,398
Oil: 67
CAD: 0.823


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Reminder: one week left to formulate your guesses for the contest.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

S&p500: 2898
tsx: 17301
gold: 1325
oil: 74
cad: 0.81


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

S&p500: 2791
tsx: 16550
gold: 1362
oil: 66.05
cad: 0.765


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## explorer416 (Jun 11, 2010)

S&p500: 3415
tsx: 18,800
gold: $1520
oil: $72.25
cad: $0.76


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

S&p500: 2625
tsx: 15250
gold: 1300
oil: 70
cad: 0.75


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

3 days to go to deadline.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Eenie meenie minae moe:

s&p: 2601
tsx: 14101
gold: 1101
oil: 50.10
cad: .501


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## DesignerDee (Apr 10, 2013)

S&p500: 2877
tsx: 15,841
gold: 1,299.10
oil: 76.33
cad: $0.8312


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

S&p 500:2980
tsx: 16440
gold:$1,370.00
oil: $72.00
cad: $0.79


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## sparky61 (Dec 6, 2014)

S&p 500:2300
tsx: 13850
gold:$1,450.00
oil: $50.00
cad: $0.68


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## Jimmy (May 19, 2017)

S&P500: 2,887
TSX: 17,175 
Gold:	$1,332 
Oil: $58.07 
CAD:	$0.75


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## Woz (Sep 5, 2013)

S&P500: 3,100
TSX: 17,800
Gold: $1,410
Oil: $65
CAD: $0.795


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

S&p500: 2,900 
tsx: 17,750
gold: $1,280
oil: $58.00
cad: $0.8100


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

....just for the heck of it....
DJIA will hit 32000 sometime during 2018..... before crashing.....

oh, and 2 big rock stars will announce their "retirement" from touring this year...
(sorry KC, for straying from the script...)


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## Synergy (Mar 18, 2013)

Thanks for the reminder kcowan.

S&P = 3,125
TSX = 17,975
Gold = 1,325
Oil = 75
CAD = 0.84


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

S&P = 2,630
TSX = 17,413
Gold = 1,082
Oil = 75.40
CAD = 0.77


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

OK the initial positions are all entered and nortel'd is the early leader. Please advise if there are any keying errors.

Results


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## Blisken (Jan 30, 2018)

*First Post*

First Post, Here we go!
S&P500: 3150
TSX: 15 250
GOLD: $1250
OIL: $57.00
CAD: 0.77
Bitcoin: $3500


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The January results are posted above. gardner is the early leader. Does anyone object to me including Blisken who missed the deadline above?


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

kcowan said:


> Does anyone object


With the stakes so high? Oh wait...


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

kcowan said:


> gardner is the early leader.


The closest in overall accuracy, I think, is Holland, not me. There is something wonky about the ranking logic in the spreadsheet.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

OK I will check it out.


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## sparky61 (Dec 6, 2014)

I seem to have been missed in the results. My predictions were posted jan 27, 2018.
If it's too much trouble to add me in, that's fine.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Yes sorry. I will add you.


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

I object to the Canadian winter but sometimes the world has to move forward despite objections.

I'm looking forward to being a back marker again, this year. :eagerness:


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

By the way, Beaver101 and I should form an investment coop and make decisions together. A blend of our outlooks might be pretty objective. lol!


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

I think something is wrong with the percentages column - several over 100% while their numbers don't appear to be over 100% different from the current results. I'm not sure if that affects the rankings or not.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

TomB16 said:


> By the way, Beaver101 and I should form an investment coop and make decisions together. A blend of our outlooks might be pretty objective. lol!


 ... no way, I'm a class by myself. 

Hmmm, on another thought since this is a $Money$ Forum, I'm willing to accept a membership if a coop/club is formed ... I'll let you have the title of CEO or the privileage of naming it (although I already have some ideas such as the Odd Couple Investment Coop/Club, or the 2+ Stooges Money Making Club or The X Musketeers ChaChing$ Club ...) :abnormal:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Results have been adjusted to include Blisken and sparky. No change in leader. gardner has an accuracy of 2.7252%

Results


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

I can't say I understand the idea of posting results 1/12 of the way into the contest. It's fun to watch a leader board, but we didn't predict midway results so, if someone were in the lead now, they would lose the contest unless all parameters were stagnant for the rest of the year.


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## mrPPincer (Nov 21, 2011)

oops, missed the deadline this year. I guess I'm sitting this one out.
Good luck everyone


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

*Explanation needed*

I too don't understand. Can someone please explain how "accuracy" is calculated. It doesn't seem right to me to have an accuracy greater than 100.

Edit : In the final 2017 Predictions, no prediction had an "accuracy" value greater than 25.86%.

.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

stantistic said:


> I too don't understand. Can someone please explain how "accuracy" is calculated. It doesn't seem right to me to have an accuracy greater than 100.
> 
> Edit : In the final 2017 Predictions, no prediction had an "accuracy" value greater than 25.86%.


Where are you seeing an accuracy of more than 100%?


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Where are you seeing an accuracy of more than 100%?


Look at this file: http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictons.jpg

For example, Beaver101 has an accuracy of 199%.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The term accuracy is a bit misleading. It is a calculation of the average error in all the forecast items, so a perfect score is zero. Each item is given an equal weighting.

As for publishing monthly results, this contest is a learning experience so people can appreciate how their forecasts perform during the year.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Spudd said:


> Look at this file: http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictons.jpg
> 
> For example, Beaver101 has an accuracy of 199%.


Yes that was a bad result and has since been corrected and updated. I don't know where the updates are.

http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictions.jpg

They look the same! Let me know....


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

Spudd said:


> Beaver101 has an accuracy of 199%.


I think the title of the "accuracy" column is misleading since it is actually summing up "inaccuracy".
In any event the "rank" column appears totally broken.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

TomB16 said:


> I can't say I understand the idea of posting results 1/12 of the way into the contest.


It's all in fun. I spent nearly all of last year trailing the pack completely, but was second closest when it counted. It's what makes it a horse race.


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## P_I (Dec 2, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Spudd said:
> 
> 
> > Look at this file: http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictons.jpg
> ...


The URL posted by Spudd is out-dated, kcowan has updated http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictions.jpg


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## P_I (Dec 2, 2011)

kcowan said:


> OK the initial positions are all entered and nortel'd is the early leader. Please advise if there are any keying errors.
> 
> Results


There is a keying error in the link. Correct link is 2018 CMF Predictions contest results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Thanks P_I for helping sort this out!

Anybody experiencing problems, please comment here.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

gardner said:


> I think the title of the "accuracy" column is misleading since it is actually summing up "inaccuracy".


OK it shall henceforth be known as "FC error" where FC=ForeCast.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Starting in March! Leader is gardner.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

Am I winning?


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

TomB19 said:


> Am I winning?


No, I am. But it's a bad sign for me, because the goal is to predict the END of 2018, not the first quarter.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

20 (Feb ) to 3 in March...:cool-new:


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## TomB16 (Jun 8, 2014)

scorpion_ca said:


> 20 (Feb ) to 3 in March...:cool-new:


There is no need for ultraviolet light to see how great that performance is.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ LOL! :encouragement:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Latest results now posted showing dubmac as the leader. Let me know if you don't happen to see those results properly!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Latest results now posted showing dubmac as the leader. Let me know if you don't happen to see those results properly!


....ooohhh...the glare of the lights. 
nice to be back, if only for a little while.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

kcowan said:


> Latest results now posted showing dubmac as the leader. Let me know if you don't happen to see those results properly!


Where do I go to see the results?


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

jargey3000 said:


> Where do I go to see the results?


You go to post # 61 of this thread.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

stantistic said:


> You go to post # 61 of this thread.


ok thanks!
how the heck is the Ranking done????


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The ranking is the arithmetic average of the error in all five forecast items. Simplistic. Lowest number wins. No bias to over/under. No special weighting of the stock index.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

TomB16 said:


> If someone were in the lead now, they would lose the contest unless all parameters were stagnant for the rest of the year.


It is not stagnation but offsetting errors. If I am 10% off on C$ but dead on on S&P, then I will get the same error if I end up right on the C$ and 10% off S&P. Not exactly stagnation!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

April results posted. No change in leadership.

http://www.finiki.org/wiki/File:CMF_2018Predictions.jpg


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

stantistic is now the leader.


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

Has there been a month, so far, that I have not been at the very back?

It has become clear the year will finish with me either at the bottom or very near. Sounds right.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

TomB19 said:


> Has there been a month, so far, that I have not been at the very back?


You never know! Most of the conservative prognosticators are doing fine but who knows what damage Trump might inflict on world markets! As The Carpenters might say: He has only just begun...


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## TomB19 (Sep 24, 2015)

If I were ever to win this contest, the only plausible attribution would be to luck.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

One year we had a booby prize. We had some fun with what the award would have on it. Ended up with the blue-footed booby!


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

Just saw the results, LOLOLOLOLOL ... hey, it's not even half a year past.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dubmac has regained the lead at the mid-point.

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

nobleea has taken over the leadership.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Thanks for the update. Wow, the full tank (like the Sens this year) is in full effect for me!!!


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

stay tuned folks, the DOW 30000 is coming (back) !


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

If I traded on my intuition I'd apparently be broke. Thanks for the hard work updating etc.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Eder said:


> If I traded on my intuition I'd apparently be broke. Thanks for the hard work updating etc.


Yes I think that is the real value. Like holy cow, I was sure this was going to happen! And now 7 months later, look what actually happened...


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

The next 5 months will be interesting. How long will the sugar high last? (If you agree that there is one). ..and when it ends, then where will the numbers land?


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

kcowan said:


> nobleea has taken over the leadership.


I thought this might happen at some point. Will be interesting to see how long I can hold on. I haven't been lower than 6th, probably more like 3rd.

*What is interesting is I didn't pick my guesses - you did.*

I waited until the last minute and averaged everyone's guess.

My thinking was that we have a large enough population such that a typical bell curve of guesses will be generated. The average should be pretty close to the correct value, absent a total black swan event. May be the median would've been better. For broad topics like Dow, Gold, etc, perhaps the hive/group think value is more accurate than some single economics expert.

Bit of a pandora's box though. Now that I've told you this, more than one person will likely try it next year, which will skew the results.
Could you use this to plan investments or long term options? You can take a look at the results from previous years. Kcowan puts the averages and medians of all our guesses at the bottom. That's what stuck out at me.


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## stantistic (Sep 19, 2015)

Almost sam ting for me.
I did averages about a week before the contest closed and then tweaked them according to how the Spirit moved me.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I should hire you guys for data entry. I don't enter the data until all the returns are in!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

peterk moves into the lead. Congratulations.

Current results


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

peterk retains the lead!


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Wow! Am I rich now?

...Didn't I get dead-last last year? ig:


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Yes it seems you learned your lesson well!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

dubmac spoils peterk's party and regains the lead not held since June.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

kcowan said:


> dubmac spoils peterk's party and regains the lead not held since June.


...by a _very_ slim 0.015% margin!


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

21 to 3...Guess is getting better.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Blisken leaps into the lead.


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## GreatLaker (Mar 23, 2014)

On Dasher, on Dancer, on Comet, on Blisken!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Prancer!


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

GreatLaker said:


> On Dasher, on Dancer, on Comet, on Blisken!


I suppose the next one will be Rudolph?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

I am pleased to announce the winner of the CMF Predictions Contest for 2018 is: Holland








Runners up are
2) sparky61 and
3) scorpion_ca

Congratulations to our winners. I will follow up with other postings.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Category winners are:

S&P500 scorpion_ca
TSX Eder
Gold stantistic
Oil sparky61
CAD nortel'd

and here are the category rankings:


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

This was my first year of guessing...not bad...


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