# Transcanada corp TRP-T



## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

I've been wanting to buy some when price hit $49 but was always hesitant. Now back up to $51-$52. The only thing that worries me is the impact if Keystone does not get approved. We recently saw a $2 drop just with the news that the decision may only get done with the new presidential administration end of 2014 or mid 2015. If it gets rejected, how low will it go? But if approved, how high can it possibly hit?

Company is solid regardless Keystone. I was thinking of buying half now and another half should the project get refused since price will go down. But if approved, I'll be kicking myself. 

I believe the project will go through. What are your thoughts on the project and company as a whole?


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

There is already a thread - with much information - on TRP started back in 2011 by HumblePie.
Your questions don't really have answers - unless you want to speculate.
TRP and ENB are both good quality companies - both have their work ahead of them with getting project through. Some say the market has already factored in the prospect of Keystone not being approved - but we'll see what happens when/if the republicans take the reins of power after Obama in next US election.

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/7577-Transcanada-Pipelines-(TRP-TO)?highlight=TRP


----------



## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

2011 thread is a little out-dated and slightly overweight.

I believe in what T. Boone Pickens said - Keystone will get approved by the outgoing president on his last term.
Makes complete sense.

TRP is the cornerstone of all my portfolios (except TFSA) and not that i would sell but the above reasoning makes me hold thru troubled times.

Buying half now is a good strategy.


----------



## Ethan (Aug 8, 2010)

Price/earnings ratio's in the pipeline sector per Google Finance:

TRP - 21.31
ENB - 82.60
PPL - 39.91
IPL - not applicable as they are losing money

TRP looks like the safest pick in the sector to me, regardless of what happens with Keystone XL and Energy East. They have a 4.14% dividend yield as well. I'm invested in this company.


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

TMX Money has:

TRP - 30.5
ENB - 72
PPL - 35.2
IPL - N/A which probably means not yet available/calculated since their conversion to a corp from a trust.

I was reminded/embarassed not so long ago quoting some metrics from a source that turned out to be unreliable. Maybe only the company financial reports can be relied on.

P.S. P/E is not the only valid metric. While I agree ENB is in nosebleed territory, one should remember that PPL's debt, including Prefs, is not investment grade. Nothing is ever simple, is it.


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Ethan said:


> Price/earnings ratio's in the pipeline sector per Google Finance:
> 
> IPL - not applicable as they are losing money
> 
> TRP looks like the safest pick in the sector to me, regardless of what happens with Keystone XL and Energy East. They have a 4.14% dividend yield as well. I'm invested in this company.


Interesting - IPL gained 2.3% today - yet losing $ - weird.

I've stayed with TRP - bought aorund 5 yrs ago - nice, steady dividends. They are diversifying away from Nat Gas transmission (see below) and the Keystone is (according to analysts) to be approved by around 2017. I checked comments from May 6 on the Morningstar report on TRP

*Changes to EBITDA contributions can illustrate the ongoing shift in the company's business model. For 2010-12, the average EBITDA contribution of the three primary business units was natural gas 61%, oil/liquids 15%, and energy and natural gas storage 24%. By 2018, the shift will be in motion, with natural gas 45%, oil/liquids 33%, and energy 22% (approximately). Driving the significant growth in the liquids business will be the Gulf Coast Project (2014), the Keystone XL, which we anticipate will come on line in 2017, and the Grand Rapids Pipeline project (2017). Beyond 2017, we are incorporating the Energy East Project, albeit with a 2020 start date. Near-term natural gas projects will focus on Mexico with the Tamazunchale Extension, Topolobampo, and Mazatlan pipelines. These projects could add approximately CAD 250 million in incremental EBITDA by 2018, of a total CAD 480 million additional EBITDA. We look for limited growth from the firm's energy business unit; however, by 2017 the Napanee project is expected to come on line under a 20-year power purchase agreement.*


----------



## Gumball (Dec 22, 2011)

I am long IPL, PPL, and TRP, perhaps too much exposure (perhaps 20% of my portfolio), but I have conviction in this space for many reasons and will stay the course with these stocks for a long time... bought PPL in the 18 range, IPL in the 20 range, and TRP in the 40 range all in TFSA acct. these "boring" slow-growth dividend stocks have been my best performers in my portfolio...


----------



## protomok (Jul 9, 2012)

Hot off the press - Obama rejects KXL - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/keystone-xl-pipeline-obama-1.3307440


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

This analysis from Morningstar - Stephen Simko, CFA, Analyst, 03 November 2015 (before Obama nixed KXL)...KXL may pop up as a republican takes office, but even then I think most will be watching Energy East as a way to move oil...JMO.

Driving significant growth in the liquids business are the Gulf Coast Project and the Grand Rapids Pipeline project, slated for 2017. Beyond 2017, we are incorporating the Energy East Project, with a 2018 start date. Near-term natural gas projects will focus on Mexico with the Tamazunchale Extension, Topolobampo, and Mazatlan pipelines. These projects could add approximately CAD 250 million in incremental EBITDA by 2018, of a total CAD 480 million additional EBITDA. We look for limited growth from the firm's energy business unit; however, by 2017 the Napanee project is expected to come on line under a 20-year power purchase agreement.

The biggest question mark for TransCanada remains its Keystone XL project. We continue to include the project in our estimates, but have delayed in-service dates to 2019. The ultimate fate of this project remains uncertain, and *in our view it is decreasingly meaningful for TransCanada in the long run.* *We see Energy East as a viable alternative for Canadian producers, and TransCanada could benefit from less distraction.*


----------



## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I agree TRP could benefit by winding down the KXL distraction. There are still opportunities along the route from the Bakken, but solely within the USA. TRP will do what it takes to ensure a feeder system into the existing portions of the KXL system. TRP will continue to do well, thank you very much.


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

a worthwhile read given the recent KXL disapproval - Mr Kelly emphasizes the fact that Canada is, and will continue to be, the US's biggest oil importer regardless of KXL.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...l-canada-however-you-send-it/article27163301/


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

*saskatchewan premier points out that railcar shipments of Alberta crude are booming*

from today's globe:

_" [Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall] said Mr. Obama’s decision is 'more about U.S. domestic politics than it is about good environmental policy.' He said it is wrong to think this will stop Canadian oil from reaching U.S. markets, adding the decision means more rail cars full of crude travelling through the countryside.

'Oil will move with or without pipelines. Consider the facts: In 2008, there were 9,500 rail carloads of oil shipped in the U.S. By 2014, that number had jumped to 493,000 – over 50 times as many,' the Premier said."
_

this article also suggests that the keystone decision could be revisited by 2019.

meanwhile liberal leaders are quoted as saying they will focus on building canada's reputation in the global oil community, they will not fixate on regrets for Keystone past history.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...on-but-points-to-fresh-start/article27149544/


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

http://business.financialpost.com/n...p-to-take-a-writedown-on-keystone-xl-just-yet

Another good summary on the KXL aftermath
One analyst suggests $2 per share "correction" on TRP share price assuming that KXL is removed from the books of TRP - but the other scenarios are also quite interesting.


----------



## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

dubmac said:


> One analyst suggests $2 per share "correction" on TRP


With the winds very obviously blowing in the "no" direction for the past year, it's hard to believe that the "no" was not more or less priced in. TRP is still pretty well the only game in town for bulk oil movement to the southeast. The American's just gave it a substantial moat to competition -- they have an existing pipeline and it appears no one can easily set up a new one to compete.


----------



## protomok (Jul 9, 2012)

Anyone know what's going on with TransCanada this week? They're up 12% over the past 5 days despite oil prices that continue to drop. Meanwhile Enbridge is down 9% over the past 5 days.


----------



## Jungle (Feb 17, 2010)

TRP was already a much lower valuation before ENB fell. Now all the pipelines are getting closer in line with each other. There is a concern with ENBs choice of funding for its billion dollar growth projects-debt and equity. I don't believe this was the plan before shares dived 30% lower and oil crashed. It could cost them a lot more money now. 
This could be the market putting its "other" pipeline exposer somewhere else, for the time being. (TRP)


----------



## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

TRP is somewhat diversified - has solar, nuclear, wind, nat gas. hydro etc as well as oil and gas storage. The list is long http://annualreport.transcanada.com/2014/AssetMap.html It might be that some in the biz see that they are not just one trick ponies and have some other ways (other than oil & gas) as an energy company. I'm speculating tho,....and not complaining with a 12% rise!


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Insider bought 66,900 shares today. Probably a buyback by the company.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

i believe that what bumped TRP today was the news release about long-term project agreements signed by its subsidiary Coastal Gas with a group of northwest coast first nations.

the agreement - probably years in the making - includes substantial sustainable benefits for indigenous businesses, bands & individual persons.

in transcanada's words:

_This brings the total to nine project agreements that are the direct result of Coastal GasLink's comprehensive approach to working with Aboriginal groups on opportunities related to B.C.'s emerging liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including developing skills training, employment and utilizing Aboriginal businesses in local contracting opportunities._


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

GoldStone said:


> Insider bought 66,900 shares today. Probably a buyback by the company.



oops. There should have been a strict share blackout period in force.

the news was certainly known to the board of directors prior to today. Today's news release re success with first nation negotiations was certainly in prep prior to today.

it's rare to stumble upon violations of the OSC blackout rules. If anything companies usually err on the side of caution.

myself, i don't believe there was any deliberate wrongdoing. I think it's a case of the company simply botched up the timing. Still, for a company with the stature of TRP, a slip like this is unusual.


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

Coastal press release is dated Thu, Dec 10.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=81155211&qm_symbol=TRP


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

GoldStone said:


> Coastal press release is dated Thu, Dec 10.
> 
> http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=81155211&qm_symbol=TRP



share purchase blackout periods pre-date all news releases of this nature - ie fully expected & fully anticipated news - by a period of at least one to sometimes two full weeks.

there are no exact set dates. A one-week pre-news blackout period is universal. The bigger & more regulated the company, the earlier the blackout periods are set.

this one really is an Oops. I don't believe TRP would have done this deliberately, it was probably some glitch in communications within the sprawling transcanada bureaucracy.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

good point! thank you!


----------



## GoldStone (Mar 6, 2011)

humble_pie said:


> share purchase blackout periods pre-date all news releases of this nature - ie fully expected & fully anticipated news - by a period of at least one to sometimes two full weeks.


Sure, but they bought *after* the press-release.

PR: Dec 10
Insider buy: today


----------



## thepitchedlink (Feb 17, 2014)

Hey, look who's crawling out of the basement today....thoughts?


----------



## protomok (Jul 9, 2012)

Well I think the high chance of getting a dividend increase within the next few weeks has to help. Historically TRP has a strong record of increasing the dividend at the beginning of the year - http://www.transcanada.com/dividends.html.

But I also wonder if some of the rise of TRP is money moving out of oil sands companies into less risky O&G related companies like TRP.


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

they are going to get Energy East sooner or later. Montreal mayor Denis Coderre is already appearing with Justin Trudeau to say full environmental testing will have to be carried out yadayada but he didn't as much as whisper the word Nyet. 

evidently a sticking point is that the trans-canada pipes - built originally for gas transmission more than half a century ago - do carry some oil at present but have never carried the heavy bitumen which is the oil sands product. So the enviros want the pipes to be tested & certified to bitumen standards.

this does not seem unreasonable to me. Presumably it will cause more delays, but with a project of this magnitude there are always countless delays.

it's possible that building Energy East will become an infrastructure feather in the liberal gummint's cap.


----------



## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

humble_pie said:


> it's possible that building Energy East will become an infrastructure feather in the liberal gummint's cap.


I really do hope so. Better would be northern gateway since that would open to the far-east, but will take it.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Northern Gateway will be MUCH better for the economy....but I'll take any pipeline now. Get this economy moving!!!!!!!


----------



## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

Transcanada in talks to buy Columbia pipeline, so the rumor.
Might be a nice time to trade back ENB for TRP.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...buy-columbia-for-102-billion/article29278701/

The major acquisition will proceed. It will cost $10B plus assuming $3B in debt. Eventually there will be a share issue, but you have to like this. Rather than wait for Canada to get it's act together, buy massive pipeline assets sitting right on top of the biggest producing area in the US with all associated interstate infrastructure.

http://www.transcanada.com/announcements-article.html?id=2035552&t=

$4.5B in shares issued via bought deal offering at 92 million subscription receipts at $45.75 each with sufficient debt to cover the rest.


----------



## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Sad that Canada can't get it's own $*** together for infrastructure. Sorry mods - needed to be written!!


----------



## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

i like it as well.
I would hope for a $2 drop in the morning but doubt that is going to happen.

I still think Transcanada should make a subsidiary company in the US. I just think with all the US and their national Protectism attitude, TRP will get by alot easier if they made a spin off name of Transcan pipeline or something.


----------



## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

I would definitely buy at the subscription price. 4.9% yield with reasonable projected growth of 8-10% until 2020.


----------



## hollyhunter (Mar 10, 2016)

*92M Subscription Receipts*

It has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters (the Underwriters) led by RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities Inc. under which they have agreed to purchase from TransCanada and sell to the public 92.0 million Subscription Receipts at a price of $45.75 per Subscription Receipt for total gross proceeds of $4.209 billion (the Offering).


----------



## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

TRP has promised that it will pay amounts equal to dividend amounts to subscription receipt holders during the hold period. What's not yet clear is whether these in-lieu-of-dividend payments will count as eligible dividends for tax purposes. Personally i doubt that they will generate dividend tax credits, but i have not seen any official answer to this question.

meanwhile, a renewed mohawk initiative to organize first nations along the Energy East pipeline route to block access to their lands is "picking up steam," says the national post.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...eline-saying-project-is-threat-to-way-of-life

if first nation opposition does coalesce, what will likely cure the problem are more $$, but the $$ have to be sustainble. In recent years transcanada has shown that it has the patience & is skilled at solving aboriginal land ownership issues.


----------



## birdman (Feb 12, 2013)

Tried to get some 1/2 hr after the market opened but it was sold out.


----------



## LongShorts (Feb 18, 2016)

Buying on the dip today...looks like a good long position with a solid dividend


----------

