# How Low will the Canadian dollar go??



## cougar (Oct 15, 2014)

Looking for everyone's best guess-mine would be 82 cents to the US dollar.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

Why? Any advice you get here about the level of the Canadian dollar is worthless (no offense people!). Really, the efficient market hypothesis is generally a good approximation of the current and future value of things (including currency).


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

From what I have read, the dollar has been following oil. As oil drops, so goes the dollar. How far will the dollar go?...is to ask, how far will oil drop? Seems Canada has a "petro-dollar".


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

It is like asking at what level oil price will bottomed. My pessimistic wild guess is closer to 80 cts or even below. The sub 80 level will be fuelled by a hike in US interest rates, if it happens.

Meanwhile, here is a historical chart US/CAD for some perspective:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market...s-Crude-Forecast-CAD-and-Copper-Compress.html


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

As someone with a good chunk of USD, i hope it go lower


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

I think when the US Fed ups rates later this year, it will drive our dollar lower....to put an actual amount down in writing is tough when there are so many factors.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Conflicted!
With my US stock holdings I cheer the decline.
Then I look at banks and energy and remind myself that I have a balanced approach.


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## gardner (Feb 13, 2014)

kcowan said:


> Conflicted!


Me too. I earn some of my income in $US, so there's a win there, and I am holding a fair wodge of $US. I consider myself fairly well hedged.


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## Electric (Jul 19, 2013)

By some miracle, I got completely out of Canada with my equity investments around April last year. Have been 100% in US and EAFE since.

Just don't ask me to do the trick again.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

I picked a good time (2012) to buy a house in the US. Exchanged a lot of money to do so and most of it was at or above par. The question now is how low does it go before I am seriously tempted to sell it and make a killing exchanging it back.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

I've been making USD (nearly tax free) for a year and a half. In CAD terms the effect on my wealth has been great, despite a lack of great investments in the interim.

I'm expecting a lower CAD. How can they raise rates when we have the most fragile housing market in the world?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Property in the coastal areas of Mexico are priced in USD. We bought at $1.065 in 2007 and so far so good!


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## cougar (Oct 15, 2014)

Thanks for everyone's thoughts!


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I sold some USD today and got paid $1.1781 thought my eyes were giving out on me when i seen the trasaction slip.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

It's going to 0 eventually. Already most of the way there. 100 years ago was worth 1/20 ounce of gold. Today, 1/1479. What costs a dollar today, cost 1 or 2 cents then.

Canadian and US dollars are in a race to the bottom. At the moment Canada is winning if you call that winning. And the people in charge of our money do.


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

No one knows how low. I really think these economists know nothing. Everytime they say it's going to go up it drops and when they forecast hiigher it drops. I am glad CAD has dropped only because I have cash in USD I have been waiting to exchange, but then my house, some real estate and daily cash all in CAD. I just wish we knew what was true out there. Some are forecasting Russia and China are working on the collapse of the USD....Don't even know what to keep our hard earned money in anymore


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The Mexican Peso has maintained its trading range from 11.8 to 12.6 for the last 5 years. So our only impact on COL is when US imports go up. By avoiding US imports, we keep inflation low. We buy Argentinian and Chilean red wine, and local vodka so we are fine. Arachera and seafood. Local everything else.

I feel sorry for the snowbirds who chose the US. Who knew?


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

how cheap is real estate in Mexico? How safe is it for kids and financially?


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

Johnny said:


> how cheap is real estate in Mexico? How safe is it for kids and financially?


The United States of Mexico is a many-splendered thing. So there is no simple answer to your broad question. If you can be more specific, start a new thread or search for an existing thread to gather your info.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

So you are spending your money on red wine, vodka, and seafood............and I spent mine on a multilayered Arctic winter coat.

There is no justice in this world...................


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## smihaila (Apr 6, 2009)

I'll be closing soon the sale of our house, and I need to convert the whole amount to US funds. In your opinion, what would be a reasonable time window to wait for the CDN to get back stronger? Crystal ball anyone? 

Thanks.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

You haven't been paying attention have you? It's unknowable so don't worry about it.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

When the oil price rebounds to $90. Some pundits are saying 2019.


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

Iran is predicting $25 oil!! If that has any truth to it, then I don't see CAD$ recovering anytime soon


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I'm shocked the CAD has gotten this low -- I really didn't expect this either.

I'm holding US dollars in t-bill vehicles (SCHO, another one is SHY) and didn't expect they would provide such protection. My precious metal holdings are also saving the day.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

With a past history in the early 2000's of $1 CAD to $0.6179 USD, I'm not sure it's all that shocking.


Cheers


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

you guys feel safe in keeping your USD$ ? I mean it's appreciating nicely against the CAD$, but are we at risk with too much USD$ when so many countries trying to bring the USA down?


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I waited over a year with a really large USD Balance just waiting for these times and I have sold about 80% of my USD over last 30 days .


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

yea i've been waiting a long time also, but now it's 0.8256 and they are predicting lower. I guess averaging in would be the best way to go about it?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Same answer as anything with uncertainty: diversify.

We really don't know, long term, whether CAD or USD will fare better. I hold some of both.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I changed my investment account to US dollars long ago when I saw the C$ trending down. Also, my gold is up to $1536 an ounce Canadian today. I don't feel quite so stupid as I used to.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Same answer as anything with uncertainty: diversify.
> 
> We really don't know, long term, whether CAD or USD will fare better. I hold some of both.


Agreed, but over the next few years doesn't it look overwhelmingly in favour of USD? US can raise rates, Canada cannot. And economic fundamentals just look horrible in Canada with energy prices here. To what extent this is already reflected in the current level of CAD, though, I really don't know.

I just realized the gain on 10% of my USD. I'll likely keep 50% sitting in USD no matter what.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I really doubt that any western country will raise policy rates. They can't afford to. The financial system is on life support, and has been for 7 years straight. Same in Europe, Canada, US and Japan.

The most the US could pull off would be a token, meaningless quarter-point raise or something. Maybe they'll get all the way up to 0.50%. With the amount of leverage and debt burden in the US, even a tiny uptick in interest rates will be enough to bring things crashing down again. They've trained the system to zero-rates, and that's all the market can tolerate.

US rates have been at zero now for 6 years! That's an emergency measure. There's nothing healthy about this and claims of "escape velocity" are laughable


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

Johnny said:


> you guys feel safe in keeping your USD$ ? I mean it's appreciating nicely against the CAD$, but are we at risk with too much USD$ when so many countries trying to bring the USA down?


Don't think any country is doing that. All the major ones are deflating their currencies versus the USD to sustain their exporting industries ( Japan, China). ECB will be printing more in their version of QE which will flood the markets with more Euro. Only Switzerland did the reverse recently when it removed its Euro/ CHF peg. 

Nowadays you no longer hear of speculation regarding the replacement of the USD as the Reserve currency!


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I think it's worth noting that the USD's strength is not due to its intrinsic or fundamental safety.

But rather that the US is in better shape than Europe -- which is outright crumbling. It's all relative. Japan went absolutely crazy with money printing in the last few years, and the USD stands out as the best among the others.

Among the fiat currency turds, the US Dollar is currently the least smelly turd.


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## Janus (Oct 23, 2013)

james4beach said:


> Among the fiat currency turds, the US Dollar is currently the least smelly turd.


haha, can't help but agree. I'll take it over CAD anyday.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I still believe in the CAD long-term though. Making a wild guess many years out: I expect that the Canadian economy (and CAD) will prove resilient and more fundamentally sound than the US.

At the moment, however, we have: crashing commodities and a housing market that the world thinks is over-valued. Whether people on this board like it or not, the rest of the world thinks that our housing bubble will pop, and hurt domestic employment/tax revenue/banking. All of this is contributing to CAD weakness.


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## bayview (Nov 6, 2011)

The issues you highlighted that are weakening the CAD are not exclusive to Canada. The major resource rich countries eg Australia have been and are experiencing the same problems which are reflected in their depreciating currencies vs the USD. A core part of the problem is also the overleveraged household debt. Think where the USD/AUD rate was last couple of years.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I agree this is not unique to Canada. I also agree that Australia is in the same boat, including the real estate bubble.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

25% of my net worth is in US dollars. Today wishing that percentage was much higher!


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

Ihatetaxes said:


> 25% of my net worth is in US dollars. Today wishing that percentage was much higher!


90% if my worth is in USD. But it just means I don't get hit with high inflation since everything is priced in USD.

Suddenly, spreading all my cash to Euro, Pounds and Yuan doesn't look so stupid in hind-hindsight.

But it means I will have to cut my trip short since my travel fund is in CAD.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I'm shocked the CAD has gotten this low -- I really didn't expect this either.


Why are _you_ surprised, James4B?
You of all people should not have been surprised.

I am not surprised at all - all the signs have been there since 2013.
My forecast for the CAD$ in Jan 2014 in the 2014 Predictions contest was 83c., which I missed by literally 1 week.

I have been preparing my personal portfolio for a lower CAD$ since late 2013/early 2014.
Not surprising at all.


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## Johnny (Oct 30, 2014)

so how did you prepare Harold? What is your forecast for CAD in 2015/16 and what are you investing in?


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## AlexM1359 (May 19, 2015)

It will probably continue to stay low for a good while. I suspect till the end of 2016. This isn't necessarily a bad thing for the economy as it can help boost exports to the US. I find this blog interesting to follow, they update on the Canadian Dollar every day. http://www.knightsbridgefx.com/news/


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## AvidSaver (Jun 24, 2015)

The USD/CAD will likely get to around $1.28-$1.30 range by the end of 2015. With the Fed looking increasingly hawkish (and a rate hike or two this year looking very likely), I'd say this is a foregone conclusion. The BoC remains very passive as well, so don't be surprised. In 2016, I'd say more in the $1.23-$1.25 range that we're seeing now.


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## DiazJenkins (Jun 30, 2015)

i hope it will go down against USD & GBP.


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