# Sentiment Turning Positive?



## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I was watching a panel discussion on CNBC today in which the participants stated that they could detect a change in sentiment in the U.S. economy and markets this week. They used terms like "pattern changing", "seeing a turn", and "markets stabilizing". Investors are starting to realize that there are early indications that "the end of the world is not nigh" and that, in fact, we already have gone through the end of the world!! Although we will not experience a 'typical' recovery, the economy is now on a "positive path for growth" according to this panel.

Anyway, this is the last week for light summer trading volumes and most of the big traders will be back next week and we will see where that takes us.

Buy low!!!


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

Belguy said:


> I was watching a panel discussion on CNBC today in which the participants stated that they could detect a change in sentiment in the U.S. economy and markets this week. They used terms like "pattern changing", "seeing a turn", and "markets stabilizing". Investors are starting to realize that there are early indications that "the end of the world is not nigh" and that, in fact, we already have gone through the end of the world!! Although we will not experience a 'typical' recovery, the economy is now on a "positive path for growth" according to this panel.
> 
> Anyway, this is the last week for light summer trading volumes and most of the big traders will be back next week and we will see where that takes us.
> 
> Buy low!!!


I won't put too much faith in what talking heads on CNBC say. Most of them have an incentive to be bullish. 

That said, I personally feel stocks offer good (but not great) value here. And it does seem to me that so many investors are negative on the markets.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Sounds like empty rhetoric to me. They've been feeding us those lines through the entire recession. We're in a recession and things are NOT "Getting better". Millions of people without work, homes being lost, people unable to find work, low consumer confidence and spending, it's not good. I realize their goal is probably to keep relative calm and not panic people, but I think the reality on the streets is a lot different than the rosy picture they're trying to paint. There's all kinds of really sad stories out there. For the average person, that's reality.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

the-royal-mail said:


> Sounds like empty rhetoric to me. They've been feeding us those lines through the entire recession. We're in a recession and things are NOT "Getting better". *Millions of people without work, homes being lost, people unable to find work, low consumer confidence and spending, it's not good.* I realize their goal is probably to keep relative calm and not panic people, but I think the reality on the streets is a lot different than the rosy picture they're trying to paint. There's all kinds of really sad stories out there. For the average person, that's reality.


Are you talking about Canada? Because I haven't seen anything like what you describe.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Front page of the Financial Post says, "Global Stocks Catch Fire" and Chinese and US indexes fuel hope of a real recovery. Also in the US pending home sales rise. So there is a lot to be positive about today.

Then you go back a week or so ago and the news was all bad. I don't think it is a good idea to be a bull or bear at this point and it would probably be best to just stay to the sidelines for the next few months.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Watching from the sidelines for about the next TWO months might be a viable option but, all things considered, I think that the markets could end the year ten to fifteen percent higher than where they are now.

However, nobody knows--not even your advisor.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

The sentiments of the experts on TV change faster than the weather.
Nothing's different this week than last. And last week wasn't (fundamentally) any different than the one before.
I see the run-up since last 2 weeks as a good opportunity to sell of some stocks that you might have been waiting to (for other reasons) or to take some profit on the slackers that may have been hovering near break even.


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## alphatrader2000 (Aug 18, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> The sentiments of the experts on TV change faster than the weather.
> Nothing's different this week than last. And last week wasn't (fundamentally) any different than the one before.
> I see the run-up since last 2 weeks as a good opportunity to sell of some stocks that you might have been waiting to (for other reasons) or to take some profit on the slackers that may have been hovering near break even.


CNBC is the best on this. Less info and more hype. BNN and Bloomberg are better.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I spend quite a bit of TV watching time split mostly between CNBC, BNN, and the Cartoon Network and I find them all about equally informative. 

The sentiment this week is definitely more positive than the gloom of recent weeks as reflected in the markets.

Now, next week is an entirely different matter.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Do I get back in, or not? It's quite maddening, you know.


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## humble_pie (Jun 7, 2009)

playing the CCCs.

CC is pretty good at calling the lows in cratering stocks. He says it's only a play money pastime. But twice he's hit the nail on the head - and each time from a great distance.

the $30 low in shoppers was a perfect call, almost to the hour & certainly to the day. BP at $37 was a little more wobbly, but anybody acting on the CCC with options has not lost.

CC how do you call RIM & MFC.


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## CanadianCapitalist (Mar 31, 2009)

humble_pie said:


> playing the CCCs.
> 
> CC is pretty good at calling the lows in cratering stocks. He says it's only a play money pastime. But twice he's hit the nail on the head - and each time from a great distance.
> 
> ...


It's much easier to have an opinion when real money isn't on the line!!!

I've been watching RIM but not MFC. It is tempting to see RIM trading at less than 10x earnings. However, technology is so fast-moving that it is impossible to see how to value RIM's revenue stream. It does seem to me though that US analysts seem bent on driving down the stock. Any bit of good news out of RIM will be good for the stock.

FD: No positions in any of the companies.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

If this thread is about market timing based on what the networks are saying today, then what is today's sentiment from the Cartoon Network? Or CNN, CBC?

I use CNBC and BNN to get ideas on individual stocks to evaluate. For overall trends, I tend to follow some of the Blogs. How many times has the DOW hit 10000? How many more times? This means that the trend is sideways. Markets don't turn between Aug 31 and Sept 1!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Another positive sign:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jmT59dgLTTziX4p9X9MRBRpWZGdQD9I0ENQO0

Those considering investing in RIM might consider Cisco as an alternative according to BNN since they produce equipment for most of the smartphones.


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## wheel (Jun 22, 2010)

kcowan said:


> If this thread is about market timing based on what the networks are saying today, then what is today's sentiment from the Cartoon Network? Or CNN, CBC?


that's a really good point. A really good one. I'm tempted to see if I can devise a trading system based on cartoons and see how it tracks against the pros.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

My bet is that the system based on the cartoons has just as good a chance at success as that of the so-called experts.

You might start by studying Daffy Duck!!


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

This week at least it looks like a double dip is unlikely. TD economics says only another crises would cause another recession at this point. We can only hope but it is looking better....


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

If you think the stock market will be going up then MFC is a great leverage play on that. Of course it will dive hard if the market falls. 

RIM I think is easier bought at the end of October which is a good seasonal period for Tech. And I hear there is a lot of stuff coming out this year to be exited about Tech as we get closer to Christmas and year end.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Another good week on the markets! I hope that you are not one of those sitting on the sidelines!!

TSX: UP 2.23%

Dow: UP 2.93%

Nasdaq: UP 3.72%

You can't gain if you don't play!!

Buy low!!!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Belguy if you look at the RSI and so on the markets did telegraph a buying opportunity, but that is for traders. For the people who don't like trading the sidelines are the best place to be.

Of course if you are buying weekly or monthly then you should just stay the course unless you have some huge amount invested already in the market.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Not quite convinced to dig into my "high interest" savings account and jump headlong into the markets, but I have to admit, my resolve is weakening. Thanks to LBYM we bank alot of money per month, so I'm going to sit this out until it looks like a slam dunk that there is going to be a full blown recovery. Yeah, deep down I know I should be buying now while prices are reasonable, but I can't pull the trigger yet. Not sure I have the stones to be a big time investor...


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

It is kinda funny now, how everyone seems to be really happy with earning 4% now, after inflation....a decade ago an individual was shunned by society for not earning 40% on the latest tech stock.

Jon Snow - you are right, when it is a full blown obvious recovery, it will be too late to buy then.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

What has changed to signal the start of a recovery? The 2% GDP number (down from 6%)? The banks quarterly results? The strength of Rim in emerging markets? Tell me what I am missing?


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

kcowan said:


> What has changed to signal the start of a recovery? The 2% GDP number (down from 6%)? The banks quarterly results? The strength of Rim in emerging markets? Tell me what I am missing?


Who knows what it is or even if it is. Might just be a realization that it is less likely the US is going into another recession.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The U.S. job numbers, issued on Friday, is the latest catalyst.

Buy low.

Buy during periods of maximum pessimism and sell during periods of maximum optimism.

Unsuccessful investors do the exact opposite.


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## Oldroe (Sep 18, 2009)

Just a media snow job. Hang on to the chair.

I think US is stronger and the crunch will come from euro.


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## Mike59 (May 22, 2010)

US job numbers are an illusion, with how many people "employed" to run the census (500,000 workers?). True unemployment is way higher than they're leading us to believe. 

Those of us gold bugs are dancing right now, and despite the benefits of being heavily weighted in gold, it speaks of disturbing conditions in the economy. The Dow-Gold ratio is hard to ignore, and it looks like 4000 is a likely meeting point.
See :









If we're actually heading for good news (a sentiment that lacks strong evidence)- considering that true bull markets can last 3,5, even 10 years, I don't see why anyone would feel they're missing the boat by holding out a bit longer. How can you prove we've hit the bottom? Factor in natural disasters, credit crunches, geo-politics, it's a dangerous time to own equities.

History has also taught us that a flat market after the crash can last for decades(i.e. Nikkei 1990, or the US economy from 1932+), and who knows, GIC investors may do better than those sinking dollars into the market right now.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Thank you Mike. I completely agree.


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

Thanks for that Mike... just the thing I needed to hear as I continue to hoard cash...


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## osc (Oct 17, 2009)

I continue to trade sideways. It's still a range.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Agree with osc.

And who pays attention to the Dow........


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I prefer to just stay fully invested at all times and take the complete rollercoaster ride.

I stayed fully invested throughout 2008, 2009, and 2010 YTD and, so far this year, my portfolio of mainly ETF's is up 6.1 percent which I consider reasonable and on track for what I more or less expected.

I know that I will not be successful in trying to time the markets because I am just not that smart and so I stay fully invested which has proven to be a superior long term investment strategy.

Buy, hold, and prosper!!


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## alphatrader2000 (Aug 18, 2010)

Belguy said:


> I prefer to just stay fully invested at all times and take the complete rollercoaster ride.
> 
> I stayed fully invested throughout 2008, 2009, and 2010 YTD and, so far this year, my portfolio of mainly ETF's is up 6.1 percent which I consider reasonable and on track for what I more or less expected.
> 
> ...


Kudos to you mate!


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## Square Root (Jan 30, 2010)

Belguy said:


> I prefer to just stay fully invested at all times and take the complete rollercoaster ride.
> 
> I stayed fully invested throughout 2008, 2009, and 2010 YTD and, so far this year, my portfolio of mainly ETF's is up 6.1 percent which I consider reasonable and on track for what I more or less expected.
> 
> ...


Pretty much the same approach for me. Living off the dividends. That saying is a little dated though- used by defunct mutual fund firm AIC. In the end they did not prosper.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

CNBC is conducting a poll today to test market sentiment at this point.

62% feel that the markets will be higher, than they are now, by year's end.

38% think that they will be lower.

How do you feel?

At this juncture, buy the most un-loved sectors such as housing and commercial real estate.

Buy low!!


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