# S&P 500 between now and year end



## james4beach

Seemingly, there's lots of turmoil happening in the US, with a very close election (on the brink of being called) and Trump immediately launching court challenges. This may just be the start of election headaches. There are also rapidly rising COVID-19 infections and a very bad trajectory.

I'm curious if people think the S&P 500 will be up or down from now to the end of the year. S&P 500 closed this week at 3,509

*Do you think it will be higher or lower than 3,509 at year end?* Let's ignore dividends (negligible over 2 months). The poll closes November 13.

The poll hides your name, so you can vote without risking embarrassment


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## james4beach

I voted Higher. My reasons:

There was a lot of anxiety going into the election, so I think the market has likely priced in election turmoil. If Trump disputes the results or refuses to step down, I don't think it will be a surprise to anyone.

I think that large corporations (and multinationals) don't care much who is president, because both parties have strongly pro-corporate policies. I also think that a dysfunctional government (either Trump's usual - or - Biden with lots of opposition) is seen as positive for large corporations because government can't get its act together to strengthen regulation, or really do anything.

Since American policies are so firmly pro-big-business already with incredibly low tax rates, the *S&P 500 wins* when government does nothing, or is ineffective or useless.

I think COVID-19 will continue to kill huge numbers of Americans, a natural disaster of epic proportions. I don't think large corporations are too bothered by massive deaths. In the modern economy, workers are increasingly irrelevant... most business can proceed with a skeleton crew, and many workers were unnecessary in the first place. This whole pandemic is speeding up automation and really exposing that most human workers aren't needed. Companies can also strip workers off their payroll, reduce their pension and benefit liabilities.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve will continue to stimulate markets, which essentially is an asset-buying program that directly benefits holders of the S&P 500 and bonds, a kind of ongoing hand-out to the rich. It's been going on since 2008 and has only accelerated with COVID.

Therefore I think government dysfunction and massive pandemic deaths are somewhat irrelevant to the market. Most of the large S&P 500 corps still appear to be profitable, and stimulus adds upward pressure as well.

A useless/ineffective American government is bad for human citizens, but it's good for big business and corporate giants. Huge numbers of Americans choose pro-business policy over _their own_ wealth / health / safety.


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## MrBlackhill

First to vote "lower".

For a two-month forecast, it's all speculations, so I'm relying on technical analysis. I believe the highest probability is a market lower, but I mostly think it may go sideways, continuing the current volatility somewhere between 3350 and 3550, so it could end a bit higher.

Over the long term though, I think you have good points. But with the increase of mental health issues and the financial distress of the low and mid classes, it will affect the market at some point.


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## robfordlives

With the Senate in question possibly due to runoff elections in January in Georgia it will be mass chaos in the markets. 30% drop overnight if Dems take control of Senate as they would then be able to repeal the tax cuts. SELL SELL SELL


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## nobleea

robfordlives said:


> With the Senate in question possibly due to runoff elections in January in Georgia it will be mass chaos in the markets. 30% drop overnight if Dems take control of Senate as they would then be able to repeal the tax cuts. SELL SELL SELL


I think the market already priced in that the Democrats would take control of the senate as well as the WH. I don't think there would be a drop, but there would probably a bump if the GOP manage to keep control in Jan as they won't be able to push through the more ambitious and expensive plans.


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## :) lonewolf

James good post. The price pattern in the market is fractal meaning pattern with in pattern. sentiment indicators should be used in conjuction with the price pattern fractal that you are playing


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## james4beach

:) lonewolf said:


> James good post. The price pattern in the market is fractal meaning pattern with in pattern. sentiment indicators should be used in conjuction with the price pattern fractal that you are playing


Thanks lonewolf!


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> First to vote "lower".
> 
> For a two-month forecast, it's all speculations, so I'm relying on technical analysis. I believe the highest probability is a market lower, but I mostly think it may go sideways, continuing the current volatility somewhere between 3350 and 3550, so it could end a bit higher.


Thanks, and I think a technical view makes sense on this short two month timeframe. If I put on my T/A hat, I might note as well that the $SPX has attempted multiple times to get to 3600 but has failed. If there's another run at 3600 which fails (making it a 3rd failure to get there), that would be bearish.



MrBlackhill said:


> Over the long term though, I think you have good points. But with the increase of mental health issues and the financial distress of the low and mid classes, it will affect the market at some point.


Thanks, and very interesting point about mental health. The financial distress is real as well.

It's possible I'm being overly optimistic about the market. It's hard to not get caught up in the euphoria created by the Federal Reserve stimulus.


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## hfp75

I have been torn for months... 

Market fundamentals are sideways right now. So I have been content to just wait on the sidelines... Here is a thought to consider though. Japan has been just printing and borrowing money for 20-30 years and no problems. I get they are not the largest / defining economy, but... Lots of 'Green' initiatives do not make money and are not yielding the same output for the $ spent as in the past (petrol performance) but that lower performance is also OK... So, maybe market fundamentals just dont matter like they used to ? 

Everything seems sideways and is it the new Normal ?

Or, as long as there is free cash - a 'cash bonanza' as it would be, everything will be fine. Have you ever poured gas on a fire ?

Even wet wood or burnt out logs will burn when gas dumped in.

The questions I have are how much gas is there and how burnt out are the logs ?

Wet wood will burn after time, dense wood will burn once its hot. There are just so many unknown variables, I dont know how to read it.


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## AltaRed

Japan is not a good proxy for much of anything. They have an aging and shrinking population, a paranoia about immigration to provide the consumer stimulus to lift a moribund economy, and too much protectionism. They were only a wonder economy when they had a youthful/middle aged economy and didn't have the Koreans, Chinese and Vietnamese pulling the manufacturing rug from under them. Not a lot different for some portions of Europe any more either. Immigration and youth is what it is all about.

I don't have an opinion about the next 8 weeks.Some of it will depend on whether the narcissist goes relatively peacefully, or worse, has to be shown the door with force in which case social disorder will most likely be inflamed. Hardly matters whether the Dems win the run offs in Georgia in early January if the country is in flames.


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## james4beach

hfp75 said:


> I have been torn for months...
> . . .
> Even wet wood or burnt out logs will burn when gas dumped in.
> 
> The questions I have are how much gas is there and how burnt out are the logs ?


Wow, I love this analogy.

The central banks are stimulating so much that it is, somewhat, like pouring gas on wet wood.

And so far, the wet wood _has_ been burning = markets responding well. The central banks assure us, at every meeting, that they have unlimited gasoline and if gasoline doesn't work, they have access to other things which are even more potent. Australia said this a few days ago. The Federal Reserve said it yesterday.

It sure looks to me like all asset classes have been responding to the gasoline. For the trailing 12 months, S&P 500 up 16%, bonds up 7%, gold up 30%. Even a dumb old portfolio of equal weights in those assets gives a whopping +18% over the last year, or more like +12% for traditional portfolio construction.

It's hard for me to interpret that as anything other than powerful central bank gasoline and Mr. Market believing it will continue.


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## doctrine

More often than not, markets go higher at the end of the year, especially November and December. So voting yes is rolling the dice right more than half the time, but still probably only 55-60% of the time - lots of room for error. The split Congress may play into it as the best of both worlds - no more Trump trade chaos, but no big changes in taxation or spending.


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## :) lonewolf

AltaRed said:


> I don't have an opinion about the next 8 weeks.Some of it will depend on whether the narcissist goes relatively peacefully, or worse, has to be shown the door with force in which case social disorder will most likely be inflamed. Hardly matters whether the Dems win the run offs in Georgia in early January if the country is in flames.


There are districts that have up to double votes then there are people with Biden getting all the votes the mainstream media does not talk about. Trump will stand up for the American people. The corruption was so blatant was it intentional to divide the people or just to get rid of Trump to proceed with the great reset ? This needs to go to court.


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## kcowan

I think the markets have been reacting to the GOP control of The Senate. That will prevent any socialist policies from going forward. Also I think any action against the big techs like Google will be deferred. And Apple will have a jump in profits from the iPhone 12 shipments.

There is a longer term downward pressure from Covid that may well impact next year.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Don't forget, Donald Trump will still be President until the new President is sworn in next March. It is quite possible the ballot box stuffing will be overturned, or Biden will be too ga-ga by then.

In any case, my fearless prediction is that the artificial stimulus will continue and the stock market will go up. I like hfp75's analogy of throwing gasoline on wet wood. The American economy has been that way since 2009 and there is no reason to believe the Democrats, famous for being fiscally irresponsible, will change things .


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## james4beach

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Don't forget, Donald Trump will still be President until the new President is sworn in next March. It is quite possible the ballot box stuffing will be overturned, or Biden will be too ga-ga by then.


Even when there are recounts, results only shift by a few _hundred_ votes in re-counts. Biden's lead is too great to be changed by these kinds of challenges
Nevada he leads by 25,000
Pennsylvania he leads by 34,000

Recounts or minor mistakes in counting will make no difference. It can change the result when there's only a few hundred votes separating them, but not when there are tens of thousands.

I think the bigger issue is that the US is in the middle of an extreme natural disaster (pandemic) and now there's an ineffectual leader in the White House. They need a smart leader in charge, but they have basically nobody in charge. Apparently Trump is currently out golfing.


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## doctrine

What can Biden do against COVID that Trump can't, other than meaningless words? Look at Europe and the EU - full of progressive leaders "encouraging", "adovcating" and "leading by example", implementing insufficient restrictions that don't actually stop the spread and public mask mandates, and it's done nothing. EU/Europe is as much of a disaster or maybe even worse than the United States, with close to 4,000 people dying every single day (4400 on Friday) - way higher than the United States on a per capita basis in almost every country. Canada was doing well but cases are soaring here everywhere and it will get worse.

No, I predict Biden will not have any impact on COVID. I would be highly suspect of any claims otherwise.

It will sound nice though, everything the media wants to hear. "Please respect social distancing and stay safe" while deaths and cases soar. Just like Canada and the EU. "Stop, or I will ask you to stop again. I really mean it this time."

Meanwhile, China is laughing all the way to economic growth. They crushed COVID and it never came back. The vaccine is all that really matters to free countries. And that will be good for the S&P 500 later this year.


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## james4beach

Controlling COVID requires much more forceful restrictions. It's possible that even if the federal government wants that, the states may not agree.

As I wrote in my post at the start of the thread ... one reason I am bullish on US stocks is that Americans are so pro-business that they will choose business profits over *their own health* and safety.

I own shares in their big businesses, and _Americans will happily die to serve me_. And they will cheer while doing it!

They don't care about their own health or well-being. America is a great country to invest in, because they would rather make sure a wealthy foreigner like me can get rich off their backs, even while they drop dead in the streets.


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## doctrine

But my point is that EU is full of socialists, free healthcare, and left leaning governments, far more socialist than even Canada in many places, and they are dying as fast or faster than Americans. How do you square that circle? Maybe it's not about politics as much as non-political human behaviour, and the nature of free societies?

Unfortunately, the questions aren't even being asked. "Trump's fault" in the media typically, which is easy journalism.


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## james4beach

doctrine said:


> But my point is that EU is full of socialists, free healthcare, and left leaning governments, far more socialist than even Canada in many places, and they are dying as fast or faster than Americans. How do you square that circle? Maybe it's not about politics as much as non-political human behaviour, and the nature of free societies?
> 
> Unfortunately, the questions aren't even being asked. "Trump's fault" in the media typically, which is easy journalism.


First of all, America is doing worse than Europe. You can see this either by the death rate per pop stats on the most populous European countries, but also in studies like this which look at the more robust 'excess mortality rate' which shows that Europe's rate is about 28% lower than the US.

On a per capita basis, more Americans than Europeans are dying from COVID... about 1/3 more.

It's true that Europe has a very high death rate but they also have a different geographic situation: they are a tightly clustered group of nations with huge amounts of internal travel and close connections. They have enormously high population density and are a hub of travel to just about everywhere in the world surrounding them.

America is quite isolated, in the middle of nowhere, and in fact doesn't even get much travel to anywhere. They are spread out and don't have population density. They should be able to contain this much better so they are totally failing at it.

Remember, at the start of the pandemic Americans assumed it can't possibly get that bad in rural America because they don't have dense cities like Europe. Boy were they wrong ... look at numbers in North Dakota and South Dakota and the entire mid west. Completely rural, hardly any big cities, and COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire.


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## AltaRed

The difference with Biden is that he will encourage/enable the scientists to avoid being distracted by Trumpisms and focus instead on the issue. Let CDC et al do their work. Further, more people are likely to start wearing masks if POTUS is also taking it seriously in the WH. Many people react 'by example'.

Bottom line: It couldn't possibly get worse than it has been under Trump.


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## MrMatt

Too short of a time period.
I think it will still have volitility until.
1. Trump concedes and the lawsuits are done.
2. Anti Trump protests stop. I think it is quite possible that there will be protests against Trump until he formally leaves office.
3. We don't know what impact Biden policies will have on the economy, if he goes full Green New Deal, it could be a disaster. I think the split senate will force more moderate policy, but the shorter term impacts of announcing various policy plans could be a negative.

4. I feel like it is almost certain there will be another political crisis before January, because 2020...


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## Rusty O'Toole

Nobody ever claimed wearing masks or using hand sanitizer would cure, or stop the spread of Covid. The idea was to slow it down so the health care system was not overwhelmed. Furthermore, it is unrealistic to expect an effective vaccine for a virus that mutates as fast as Covid. Eventually it will blow over, like every other outbreak of flu. This usually takes about 18 months and we are nearly a year into it now. I expect the crisis to fade away over the next few months.


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## MrMatt

Even if it doesn't "fade away", they've had lots of time to improve treatment.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I think the bigger issue is that the US is in the middle of an extreme natural disaster (pandemic) and now there's an ineffectual leader in the White House. They need a smart leader in charge, but they have basically nobody in charge. Apparently Trump is currently out golfing.


Well maybe in 2025 when the next president takes office... until then, I'm gonna make some popcorn.


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## kcowan

The senate runoff in Georgia isn't until January. Meanwhile the only downsides to the S&P will be GOP riots, if any.


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## Rusty O'Toole

james4beach said:


> Even when there are recounts, results only shift by a few _hundred_ votes in re-counts. Biden's lead is too great to be changed by these kinds of challenges
> Nevada he leads by 25,000
> Pennsylvania he leads by 34,000
> 
> Recounts or minor mistakes in counting will make no difference. It can change the result when there's only a few hundred votes separating them, but not when there are tens of thousands.
> 
> I think the bigger issue is that the US is in the middle of an extreme natural disaster (pandemic) and now there's an ineffectual leader in the White House. They need a smart leader in charge, but they have basically nobody in charge. Apparently Trump is currently out golfing.


Not this time. There were at least half a dozen states where Trump was leading comfortably when the polls closed, then suddenly hundreds of thousands of Biden votes turned up. At the same time, there was no such rush of support for other Democrat candidates.
Latest word is, all the legit mail in ballots sent out by the government had a secret watermark that cannot be duplicated. Meaning, any counterfeit ballots can be easily detected.


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## MarcoE

No idea. But if I had to guess, higher. Markets like certainty and hate turmoil. Once all the dust settles from the election, investors will feel more certainty. But we'll see.


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## moderator2

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Not this time. There were at least half a dozen states where Trump was leading comfortably when the polls closed, then suddenly hundreds of thousands of Biden votes turned up. At the same time, there was no such rush of support for other Democrat candidates.
> Latest word is, all the legit mail in ballots sent out by the government had a secret watermark that cannot be duplicated. Meaning, any counterfeit ballots can be easily detected.


This is a conspiracy theory and election disinformation. There is no evidence of any ballot fraud. Fake stories of voter fraud are being carried on conspiracy theory web sites and circulating on social media.

Rusty, if you're getting your news from the fringe web sites and social media, or from Trump, you are not getting accurate or reliable information.


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## AltaRed

FWIW, mail in ballots are probably the way of the future (or possibly even online). About half a million mail-in ballots were received by Elections BC for the Oct 23rd election. They are just being counted this weekend and a few seats will likely swing. Mail-in voting is likely the only way I will vote in the future. The processes are secure and voter identification is robust enough.

Some states have been voting primarily by mail-in ballot for some time and either need to be postmarked, or received, by the end of Election Day.

There is no conspiracy. Only non-democratic attempts to suppress the vote. Mail-in allows those who cannot conveniently make it to a polling station for a number of reasons, e.g. physical mobility, transportation logistics, out-of-country, etc.


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## Retired Peasant

It is my understanding, that they did not start counting mail-in votes in some states until after the polls closed. I kept hearing that mail-in was more popular with Democratic voters; hence the increase in Dem votes after the polls closed.


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## Money172375

Rusty O'Toole said:


> Don't forget, Donald Trump will still be President until the new President is sworn in next March. It is quite possible the ballot box stuffing will be overturned, or Biden will be too ga-ga by then.
> 
> In any case, my fearless prediction is that the artificial stimulus will continue and the stock market will go up. I like hfp75's analogy of throwing gasoline on wet wood. The American economy has been that way since 2009 and there is no reason to believe the Democrats, famous for being fiscally irresponsible, will change things .


March? Jan 20 No?


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## AltaRed

Retired Peasant said:


> It is my understanding, that they did not start counting mail-in votes in some states until after the polls closed. I kept hearing that mail-in was more popular with Democratic voters; hence the increase in Dem votes after the polls closed.


True and that is because what state law demanded in those instances. 

It would potentially be logical for there to be more Dem mail-in ballots. More responsible vis-a-vis covid-19 perhaps and/or harder to physically get to the polls and/or concerned about goon intimidation such as Proud Boys at the polls. I'd vote by mail-in ballot too.


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## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> FWIW, mail in ballots are probably the way of the future (or possibly even online). About half a million mail-in ballots were received by Elections BC for the Oct 23rd election. They are just being counted this weekend and a few seats will likely swing. Mail-in voting is likely the only way I will vote in the future. The processes are secure and voter identification is robust enough.
> 
> Some states have been voting primarily by mail-in ballot for some time and either need to be postmarked, or received, by the end of Election Day.
> 
> There is no conspiracy. Only non-democratic attempts to suppress the vote. Mail-in allows those who cannot conveniently make it to a polling station for a number of reasons, e.g. physical mobility, transportation logistics, out-of-country, etc.


Not completely true, there have been some questionable changes.
For example PA law says (quoted in another thread) that it must be postmarked the day before election day, but they decided to allow ballots received after election day, even if they don't have a postmark.

That being said, Biden won by enough votes that it's unlikely to flip.
Even if there was fraud, they simply don't have evidence that it was massive. At most they have little bits of impropriety here and there, likely only affecting hundreds or maybe thousands or votes, not the 10's of thousands required to change the outcome.

Now we just have to see if the electors actually cast the votes as everyone expects.


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## AltaRed

MrMatt said:


> Not completely true, there have been some questionable changes.
> For example PA law says (quoted in another thread) that it must be postmarked the day before election day, but they decided to allow ballots received after election day, even if they don't have a postmark.
> 
> That being said, Biden won by enough votes that it's unlikely to flip.


It was known as early as Oct 19th from the Supreme Court which ballots would be valid for 3 days after the election even if not a clear postmark. Supreme Court will allow Pennsylvania to count ballots received up to 3 days after the election Please read the 3 key points to see where you are wrong....

Additionally, postmarked and received are two different things entirely. You are also neglecting to disclose that USPS wasn't even sweeping the boxes like a judge told them to do so and the Postmaster General (a political appointee of DJT was threatened by that judge to appear before him for not following the court order:
A judge threatens the postmaster general over slow execution of sweeps for undelivered ballots. but if you think NYT is a conspiracy paper.... then maybe
Judge furious with Louis DeJoy after USPS refuses search for undelivered mail-in ballots or if you don't like that one either.....








U.S. Postal Service officials ordered to appear in court after failing to comply with federal judge's ballot-sweep order


Detractors say the postmaster general, a Trump ally and campaign donor, intentionally slowed mail delivery to suppress vote as absentee voting surged amid...




www.marketwatch.com





Thing is there was absolutely no reason for the USPS to be tardy given their knowledge of what was coming.....unless maybe it was intentional?


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## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> It was known as early as Oct 19th from the Supreme Court which ballots would be valid for 3 days after the election even if not a clear postmark. Supreme Court will allow Pennsylvania to count ballots received up to 3 days after the election Please read the 3 key points to see where you are wrong....
> 
> Thing is there was absolutely no reason for the USPS to be tardy given their knowledge of what was coming.....unless maybe it was intentional?


Exactly!

I believe the law that allows them to count votes until Friday also requires a postmark.
The court basically ruled that a legislated requirement was not required. That is "sketchy". 

Sure the USPS is playing games.. everyone is playing games.


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## AltaRed

So it is the voter's fault that USPS didn't follow the court order and failed to do a sweep for ballots on Election Day? To be crystal clear, I do think that an Election Day postmark is important and USPS should have completed what they were supposed to do.

That all said, it beats me why voters would wait as late as Election Day to mail their ballot. No one needs to wait that long to make up their mind. We filled out and mailed our BC Election ballots at least a week before Election Day.


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## Rusty O'Toole

Money172375 said:


> March? Jan 20 No?


You are correct, January 20 is the date set for inauguration. I apologize for the error.


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## kcowan

S&P up over 100 points, C$ up, Oil up, etc
The markets seem to be voting for the current momentum. Not freaking out over Trump lawsuits.


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## MrMatt

AltaRed said:


> So it is the voter's fault that USPS didn't follow the court order and failed to do a sweep for ballots on Election Day? To be crystal clear, I do think that an Election Day postmark is important and USPS should have completed what they were supposed to do.
> 
> That all said, it beats me why voters would wait as late as Election Day to mail their ballot. No one needs to wait that long to make up their mind. We filled out and mailed our BC Election ballots at least a week before Election Day.


I think we both agree it's a disaster.

If you were living in PA, and waited till the last moment to mail in a ballot.... I'm not sure you're informed enough to make a reasonable determination who the next president should be.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have the right to vote, I'm very leery of conditions on voting. I'm just saying it would be nice if very poorly informed voters didn't.


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## james4beach

One day doesn't necessarily mean much, but look at how covid-impacted sectors are moving today.

REITs (XRE) +5%
Air Canada +22%
US financials +7%
Cineplex (CGX) +28%
Shopify down 7%, was a covid safe haven
Gold down 5%, was another covid safe haven

Could it be that stocks are moving like this because of Pfizer's drug, and nothing to do with US elections?



https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pfizer-says-early-data-signals-covid-19-vaccine-is-effective-1.5794899


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## Rusty O'Toole

moderator2 said:


> This is a conspiracy theory and election disinformation. There is no evidence of any ballot fraud. Fake stories of voter fraud are being carried on conspiracy theory web sites and circulating on social media.
> 
> Rusty, if you're getting your news from the fringe web sites and social media, or from Trump, you are not getting accurate or reliable information.


Where do you go for accurate information? In the last 5 years the mainstream corporate media has promoted conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory, including the Steele dossier, Russian collusion, the impeachment hoax, the Kavanaugh smear and many others all of which turned out to be false. I prefer to check out various sources and believe anything promoted by the corporate media, provided it is confirmed by independent sources.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> One day doesn't necessarily mean much, but look at how covid-impacted sectors are moving today.
> 
> REITs (XRE) +5%
> Air Canada +22%
> US financials +7%
> Cineplex (CGX) +28%
> Shopify down 7%, was a covid safe haven
> Gold down 5%, was another covid safe haven
> 
> Could it be that stocks are moving like this because of Pfizer's drug, and nothing to do with US elections?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pfizer-says-early-data-signals-covid-19-vaccine-is-effective-1.5794899


That would be done, with dozens of vaccines in the works in Canada ( I believe 30+) and many more in the US, I think progress on any 1 vaccine is an overreaction.

Clearly good news, but we don't know how long it lasts yet, or any of the other data.
It might be "effective", but how practically effective is still an unknown.

As far as profit, I think the PR from the drug companies selling this at marginal corporate profit, and governments "generously" covering R&D costs across the industry might be a good idea.


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> One day doesn't necessarily mean much, but look at how covid-impacted sectors are moving today.
> 
> REITs (XRE) +5%
> Air Canada +22%
> US financials +7%
> Cineplex (CGX) +28%
> Shopify down 7%, was a covid safe haven
> Gold down 5%, was another covid safe haven
> 
> Could it be that stocks are moving like this because of Pfizer's drug, and nothing to do with US elections?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/pfizer-says-early-data-signals-covid-19-vaccine-is-effective-1.5794899


Pretty sure it's a reaction to Pfizer. All the big moves are COVID-related (vaccine-related).

Fun times in my portfolio today.

I have stocks up by +23%, +16%, +14% and I have stocks down by -9%, -7%, -6%. My overall is positive.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Pretty sure it's a reaction to Pfizer. All the big moves are COVID-related (vaccine-related).
> 
> Fun times in my portfolio today.
> 
> I have stocks up by +23%, +16%, +14% and I have stocks down by -9%, -7%, -6%. My overall is positive.


Yup the more I look at it, the more I think today's movement is vaccine related and nothing to do with politics. I have some big gains offset by big losses in bonds & gold, for a net result close to 0% ... which is the point of risk parity and the permanent portfolio. It's amazing how well diversification works.


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## kcowan

It is primarily the traders reacting to news of the day.


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## mpochwat

I see the markets having a relief pump rally now after all of the uncertainty that's happened in the past few months. Would be cautious here and see how things play out over the next few months before calling a direction for the market.


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## doctrine

This rally is how markets react on rumor and sell on news. By the time a vaccine is officially approved for emergency use by the FDA, stocks will have adjusted even further. By the time vaccines are being distributed, even further. And by the time travel restrictions start dropping and COVID rates disappear, there will be no gains left to be had.

Investments are being made now for the news that will come out 3, 6, and 9 months from now. Some was made in the weeks leading up to this announcement just because we all knew there would be news out this month. The sector rotate continued today for a second day.


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## james4beach

Very interesting mix of votes here, and a pretty good number of votes for the poll!

It's showing that roughly half of people are neutral. But among the people who do have an opinion on direction, it's slightly bullish.


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## james4beach

Leaving aside the random nature of short periods (2 months)... even with the bad trend in COVID cases, I'm still feeling reasonably optimistic about stocks for two reasons:

this isn't a huge surprise, so Mr. Market isn't caught off guard
large cap stocks are not the real economy or "Main Street"
I was listening to a radio show where someone from a business council was talking about how it seems unfair that Walmart and large superstore-type retailers can remain open while many small businesses have to close. It's a good point.

It reminded me that the giant companies which make up the S&P 500 or TSX have certain advantages. They have lobbying power and have bought politicians (this one is unfair). But they are also large and sophisticated, so they've been able to leverage automation, working from home, etc.

And they likely are going to get special exemptions from restrictions because their sheer size makes them invaluable. There are small hardware stores that compete with Canadian Tire and Home Depot. Which one do you think is likely to remain open through the pandemic. I don't know about you guys but I sure as hell want Canadian Tire to stay open, because I need it.

And look at their stocks. I think Mr. Market also believes that Canadian Tire, and Walmart, will remain open.

While it's true that many smaller businesses are at risk of getting wiped out, the larger stocks which dominate the indexes (Walmart, Amazon, CN Rail, Enbridge, insurance giants, big banks) can probably just keep chugging alone. Relatively speaking I think the *big companies in the indexes* will do better than the broader economy.


----------



## james4beach

The S&P 500 hit a new all time high today


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## MrBlackhill

Yup, that's because of Moderna and now it's time to drop from that excitement. S&P 500 gained about +10% in a matter of two weeks because of vaccine news. The fight is not over. I'm just being bearish because of my bet in this thread. ;-)

As I said, it's all speculative and who knew we would then have two vaccine news...


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## doctrine

All time highs are very bullish. In almost all cases, they signal more all time highs again. It's almost never one-and-done. 

This is also true in reverse too. Such is life. Good times will last until they don't, and the same for the bad times.


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## Rusty O'Toole

I am noticing the TQQQ (tech stocks) is lagging behind the equivalent S&P or broad stock market. This may be a sign the market in general is rolling over.


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## doctrine

Rusty O'Toole said:


> I am noticing the TQQQ (tech stocks) is lagging behind the equivalent S&P or broad stock market. This may be a sign the market in general is rolling over.


It may also be a sign of a more balanced market in early phases of economic recovery, as value stocks begin to appreciate. All of those big gains from tech are unlikely to go into bonds. Some analysts believe this rotation of growth->value could last as long as 3-6 months. From now until April/May is typically very good for the stock market.


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## Eclectic12

MrMatt said:


> ..., with dozens of vaccines in the works in Canada ( I believe 30+) and many more in the US, I think progress on any 1 vaccine is an overreaction.
> Clearly good news, but ...


The numbers for Canada look strange ... unless it's vaccines plus other treatments being tested?

The biggest number I can find for vaccines in Canada are seven. There's six companies listed as receiving gov't funding for their candidates. Health Canada reports three under testing on their web site but four reported in a recent article. There was overlap with the same ones appearing on multiple lists so a generous number seems to be ten.


Cheers


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## MrMatt

Eclectic12 said:


> The numbers for Canada look strange ... unless it's vaccines plus other treatments being tested?
> 
> The biggest number I can find for vaccines in Canada are seven. There's six companies listed as receiving gov't funding for their candidates. Health Canada reports three under testing on their web site but four reported in a recent article. There was overlap with the same ones appearing on multiple lists so a generous number seems to be ten.
> 
> 
> Cheers


They announced less than a month ago they were funding the completion of 6.









Prime Minister announces funding to advance the development of Canadian COVID‑19 vaccine technologies


As we continue to address the health, social, and economic impacts of COVID-19, the Government of Canada is actively pursuing the purchase and development of vaccines, treatments, and related supplies to protect Canadians from the virus and support our recovery from the pandemic. This includes...




pm.gc.ca






30+ sounds high, but remember the panic back in March/April, they were pushing everything, plus they didn't know what would work on COVID, seems like they're figuring it out.


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## doctrine

It is highly likely that most or even all of the vaccines will work. There is a high level of collaboration and basically all scientists at every company and university all have access to the same data around the world.

The pandemic will be over soon. Because we don't need vaccines for everyone for the crisis to end, although likely most will be vaccinated in the end. Once populations over 60 are immunized, death rates will fall 99%+ and this will all be over. And they will be vaccinated amongst the first along with health care workers who are spreading it to them. This could occur by early spring in most first world countries.

That is why stock markets are hitting all time highs. It's going to be a party out there for several years. And people around the world are sitting on hordes of savings waiting to be spent.


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## james4beach

doctrine said:


> It is highly likely that most or even all of the vaccines will work. There is a high level of collaboration and basically all scientists at every company and university all have access to the same data around the world.
> 
> The pandemic will be over soon.


I generally agree. On a forward-looking basis, it looks like the pandemic is basically over.

This should not be confused with the immediate, extremely serious situation. We're in big trouble, with the way the numbers are moving. Everybody needs to be on their highest alert ... few months ago was a dress rehearsal.


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## doctrine

It is pretty bad out there. However, I will note that in Europe, it seems to be getting under a little more control, with cases down from 300-325k a day to 200-225k. Deaths are still high, although they tend to lag. So, maybe a silver lining in Europe. Maybe in a few more weeks of restrictions, similar results here. Things are starting to stabilize in Quebec, and they were the first to bring in some level of restrictions last month.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> I generally agree. On a forward-looking basis, it looks like the pandemic is basically over.
> 
> This should not be confused with the immediate, extremely serious situation. We're in big trouble, with the way the numbers are moving. Everybody needs to be on their highest alert ... few months ago was a dress rehearsal.


If you look forward enough it's over, but we're not at the worst
Unless we lock down we have at least 6 months of cases and deaths.

The really hard part is coming now, our (Ontario) case numbers are 3x what they were in the spring, plus people are fighting control measures.
It's going to get worse before it gets better.

My bigger concern is that we've been all COVID all the time for months, so many other problems have been ignored or sidelined.
The amount of research energy poured into COVID19 has set back other research by years.


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## MrBlackhill

doctrine said:


> It is highly likely that most or even all of the vaccines will work.


Hopefully the coronavirus won't develop a resistance to the vaccine which would need an annual update like the flu...


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> Hopefully the coronavirus won't develop a resistance to the vaccine which would need an annual update like the flu...


There is a risk that this COVID and variants will be with us forever, like influenza. I think this was actually the strongest motivation for the early, very hard lock down ... I think they might have been trying to prevent the disease from becoming endemic in humans.

That ship has sailed. But even if COVID is with us forever, treatments are rapidly improving and it eventually won't have the same death toll.


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## MrBlackhill

I like the fact that I bet bearish due to the technicals, but I knew that vaccine news _could_ make me lose my bet, but if I lose my bet here, it means I'm making money, so it's actually a win (I don't short).


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## MrMatt

MrBlackhill said:


> Hopefully the coronavirus won't develop a resistance to the vaccine which would need an annual update like the flu...


Since we have a lot of coronavirus strains and variants already it's likely to continue to change.
However you've likely had several in your life already, and most of them are just a cold.

SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are just 2 that caught our attention because of their higher risk.
The first being incredibly lethal, the second having greater spread, but a much lower fatality rate.

That's not unusual, overly lethal viruses tend to die off, because they keep killing hosts.

A strain that's less lethal will likely spread more, while hopefully still confirming some resistance on the hosts..


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## james4beach

Amazing rally continuing. Might be a combined effect of states actually certifying the election results and government transition happening (was uncertain until yesterday), plus new vaccine alternatives on the table, plus COVID immunity appearing to be 6+ months in a recent study,

PLUS just today exceeding the 3600 technical level on the S&P 500 which is also a big confidence boost.

Simultaneously, oil rallying like crazy, probably also on forward-looking economic activity.


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## MrBlackhill

With all the vaccine announcements, there's a big hype, so I'll happily lose my bet. I have 2 big O&G holdings currently at more than +100%.

At the beginning of the summer, I invested a big chunk of money that I needed by October. I was hoping for a slow recovery, but also for vaccine news. Unfortunately, the news came in November, after I sold everything. I would've made at least +25% if I could've held it through November. Anyways, it could've gone wrong, so I took the safe path instead.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> With all the vaccine announcements, there's a big hype, so I'll happily lose my bet. I have 2 big O&G holdings currently at more than +100%.
> 
> At the beginning of the summer, I invested a big chunk of money that I needed by October. I was hoping for a slow recovery, but also for vaccine news. Unfortunately, the news came in November, after I sold everything. I would've made at least +25% if I could've held it through November. Anyways, it could've gone wrong, so I took the safe path instead.


Still, could reverse... we have no idea how these things will play out. The US is about to see a massive increase in their already sky-high COVID cases and deaths. Apparently the airports are packed right now. Health officials pleading with them not to travel, and they're doing it anyway. Today I just received two emails from US airlines for sales & promos.

That being said, I tend to think (as I wrote in my initial posts) that the stock market couldn't care less if a huge number of Americans die or are unable to work. Without healthcare and labour protections, Americans are forced to work whether they are sick or not... they're pretty much slaves of the capitalists. And they love it! Americans will happily put themselves in danger and die for the benefit of foreign capitalists.

But stocks are always unpredictable. For all we know we could still have an epic crash before year end.


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## doctrine

james4beach said:


> That being said, I tend to think (as I wrote in my initial posts) that the stock market couldn't care less if a huge number of Americans die or are unable to work. Without healthcare and labour protections, Americans are forced to work whether they are sick or not... they're pretty much slaves of the capitalists. And they love it! Americans will happily put themselves in danger and die for the benefit of foreign capitalists.


Yes, some more people will die, but it is fairly obvious that incredibly effective vaccines are under mass production and literally only weeks away from being injected in the US. Death rates will be dropping very rapidly very soon as it is only a small segment of the population (>65) that is highly vulnerable. It's pretty easy for the market to look past short term pain.

Canadians, on the other hand, will have to wait at the back of the bus for another month or longer unfortunately, because we do not attract big pharmaceutical companies. While we do get lower drug prices, we have to wait and there will be no clearer example of this than the next 4-6 weeks as countries like the UK, Germany, and the United States start vaccinations within weeks while Canadians continue to die.


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## james4beach

doctrine said:


> Yes, some more people will die, but it is fairly obvious that incredibly effective vaccines are under mass production and literally only weeks away from being injected in the US. Death rates will be dropping very rapidly very soon as it is only a small segment of the population (>65) that is highly vulnerable. It's pretty easy for the market to look past short term pain.
> 
> Canadians, on the other hand, will have to wait at the back of the bus for another month or longer unfortunately, because we do not attract big pharmaceutical companies. While we do get lower drug prices, we have to wait and there will be no clearer example of this than the next 4-6 weeks as countries like the UK, Germany, and the United States start vaccinations within weeks while Canadians continue to die.


Yes I agree the vaccines are coming. I still think that on a forward-looking basis, this pandemic is over. (Should again be noted that our immediate situation is very different and we're in serious danger for the next few months)

It's not true that we are "at the back of the bus". Yes, slower access than the US, UK, and Germany because they manufacture, and we don't. But we are still getting preferential access on the world scale.

Canada is actually one of the few countries which has hedged our bets by purchasing multiple vaccines. Good moves by the Trudeau government, actually being more aggressive than the norm, to the point we're taking some heat for it:



> BBC article
> 
> Because we do not yet know which vaccines will work, some countries are hedging their bets by purchasing multiple options. *India, the EU, the US, Canada and the UK are among the countries which have reserved the most doses*, according to the latest data.
> . . .
> Concerns have also been raised over the fact that several Covax signatories, including the UK and Canada, are directly negotiating their own deals with pharmaceutical companies.
> 
> "They're investing generously in Covax but at the same time they're undermining that by taking doses off the market...


The reality is that the Trudeau government has taken a pretty aggressive stance here. We're one of the countries which has reserved the most doses. We should be grateful for the position we're in at this point.


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## kcowan

Astrozeneca doesnot think so:

Canada is second last in November


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## AltaRed

I agree with Keith. Canada has been a rank amateur throughout this crisis. Health Canada cannot figure out what direction is East or West and our procurement system does not know how to position ourselves in line. Decisions have been terribly tardy with Ottawa simply miles behind the 8 ball on everything it has done. Need I list the ways?


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## MrBlackhill

About the bet on S&P 500...

DJI reached an all-time high over 30,000
S&P 500 is at all-time high
NASDAQ is at all-time high over 12,000
S&P/TSX is about to have its best monthly return (double-digit) in over 20 years, and that's would be for a second time in 2020.

My portfolio is at its all-time high, I've been up for more than 6 consecutive days... I've made more than +10% in November...

November has been pretty bullish with the vaccine news. November was already historically a great month. And so is December.

Maybe a bubble will pop during February.

But we just had news about some vaccines. There's more bullish news to come. Their approval, for instance. And then the beginning of their distribution. And then the decrease in infection cases. 2021 could be a great year. Eyes closed on all the bankruptcies, all the debt, and looking forward...


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## doctrine

The first 52 week/all time high is rarely the last, in the short term. Maybe a pullback, but given the seasonal strength of stocks from November to May that typically occurs every year, plus all of the re-opening news and the bags of disposable cash consumers are holding, it's hard to see a reason for a lengthy pullback. Onwards and upwards.


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## MrBlackhill

True, there's a long list of good news.

Vaccine approval
Vaccine distribution
Decrease in daily new infected cases
Decrease in daily deaths
End of the confinement
End of the quarantine
Opening borders
Opening of bars, restaurants, etc
End of travel restrictions
Decrease of unemployment rate
Earnings getting back to pre-COVID levels
More spending from the rich


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## james4beach

Seems like good news but now I'm wondering if everyone is being overly optimistic. Maybe I've been overoptimistic too. The US numbers are horrendous and Thanksgiving (currently happening) could accelerate the spread. I wonder if the disease spread will become so catastrophic that they really are forced to shut down regional US economies, soon.

Lots of uncertainty remains


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## MrBlackhill

james4beach said:


> I wonder if the disease spread will become so catastrophic that they really are forced to shut down regional US economies, soon.
> 
> Lots of uncertainty remains


During the first wave in the US, they had about 30,000 daily new cases, but about 2,200 daily deaths.

During the second wave in the US, they had about 70,000 daily new cases, but "only" about 1,000 daily deaths.

During this third wave in the US, they have about 180,000 daily new cases, but about 1,700 daily deaths.

I think the lockdown trigger for the US is more about the daily deaths than the daily new cases.


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## AltaRed

It should be about hospitalization overloading primarily and about deaths secondarily. 

Daily new cases is an early warning (indicator) of what MIGHT become hospitalization overloading, and the problem is by the time hospitals become overloaded, the tsunami could already be just offshore (7+ days lag). It is a delicate balance of trying to throttle new cases without crying wolf, or the wolf already gaining entry to the chicken coop.


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## MrBlackhill

AltaRed said:


> It should be about hospitalization overloading primarily and about deaths secondarily.


Absolutely true. I don't have the graphs of the active hospitalizations on the reference I use, maybe some other reference provides more graphs about that indicator.

Edit : There you go. So, yes, US should make a move due to their current situation. Maybe they are more prepared and have more capacity at the moment, though. I guess the best indicator would be the hospitalizations vs capacity as a %.









US Currently Hospitalized


The COVID Tracking Project collects and publishes the most complete testing data available for US states and territories.




covidtracking.com


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## peterk

AltaRed said:


> It should be about hospitalization overloading primarily and about deaths secondarily.


Do we even know what hospital capacities are? I've never heard it. Only that hospitalizations are up. Sometimes they're "nearing capacity", experts assure, with no further detail provided.

Have we expanded that capacity that we're "near" at all in the last 8 months with those $500B spent? How much? Have there been any new hospitals built? started?


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## AltaRed

You will have to look at the statistics on a province by province basis as each reports statistics differently plus they are hard to actually find. BC cancelled tens of thousands of elective surgeries this past Spring to make way for space for covid patients. Example from BC this past Spring B.C. clears more acute hospital beds as COVID-19 case growth slows - Surrey Now-Leader BC got through it without running out of ICU space. It is also not just beds but people and equipment to resource them. Many front line workers have themselves been off work for covid-19.

Cancelling elective surgeries can help (and did help) near term to make room for 'disasters' but that just backs up everything else, increasing wait times even more. People also die in the mean time waiting on the wait lists. My DIL had critical cancer surgery delayed for months for just this reason.

You also fully know one cannot train additional staff in mere months. It takes years. It also takes years to build and staff hospitals. I suspect you are choosing to be intransigent because you already know how complex these systems are with many moving parts.


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## peterk

^ That's my point. What space was cleared exactly and what numbers back up that decisions? How does a government just halt all elective surgeries in anticipation without providing all the numbers and projections easily in the media for us to see? Why isn't this shown and explained? What is going on???... What exactly is the capacity of the medical system and why don't they prove to us that it's "almost reached" with the numbers? Explain to us how much of those billions is going to expanding the medical system and what is the progress on that exactly during the past 8 months?


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## AltaRed

They are complex decisions which likely wouldn't be easy enough to understand by the public. They could do better but they can't dig very deep for the layperson. Too many armchair quarterbacks like us.

I have no idea what you are talking about vis-a-vis the last 8 months. Other than setting up outdoor triage tents, what more could be done about infrastructure and human resources in 8 months? Nothing.....


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## MrBlackhill

I'm pretty pretty sure I've lost my bet due to vaccine news which led S&P500 soar double-digit during November. It's highly unlikely that it will drop by -5% in December.

Meanwhile, we continue having 10k daily deaths worldwide and 600k daily new cases worldwide. And we're about to have Christmas and New Year's Eve. 2021 will start strong...

Anyways, they say that in Quebec they're ready for 200k vaccinations per week starting January 1st. But people who had to get infected during holidays will already be infected anyways. We'll see.


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## james4beach

MrBlackhill said:


> I'm pretty pretty sure I've lost my bet due to vaccine news which led S&P500 soar double-digit during November. It's highly unlikely that it will drop by -5% in December.


The month is young, there are still weeks to go! US deaths will continue to rise, since we're going to see the Thanksgiving effect in the coming weeks. Soon, the US will have more than total 9/11 deaths, every single day.

Just imagine. 9/11 every day.


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## Tostig

I was preparing for some panic selling when Biden won the election but that didn't happen.

I did a study on the S&P500 over the past 60 years from Yahoo Finance data.

It does look like on average, the market will continue to go up straight until May. That's average. Of course, each year has its own characteristics like the autumn of 2018 in which the bear market ended at the end on December.

On average, December's performance will be +1.35%, 73% probability positive, 26% negative.

For an election year, December's average performance is +0.9%, 80% probability positive, 20% negative.


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## MrBlackhill

Yes, at this point, for S&P 500 to go back below 3509 before year end, we'd need some totally unexpected news.

We've been living with COVID for nearly a year, there's nothing new to happen. Unless something very bad happens about the vaccines. Or a very bad mutation. Or maybe Trump will do something terrible after that 46-minute video. Or his fans.

But all the bad news and bad outcomes have been studied and the market is bullish.


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## james4beach

US Department of Labor reports jobless claims that are better than economists expected. Maybe stocks will surge for the remaining week of the year?

The S&P 500 is already up 16% year to date. This could be the best performing plague year ever! Maybe we should have a plague every year!

The index is now up a cumulative 55% for the trailing two years which is +24.5% per year, through the greatest economic catastrophe in recent history. I don't know about the rest of you but this strikes me as odd. This is obviously not just "pricing in a recovery". This is quite an insane P/E expansion, from P/E of 19.6 at the start of the graph below, to 37.2 today.

In other words, 90% expansion in P/E. The S&P 500 earnings were actually $137 at the start of the below chart, and roughly $100 now.

So corporate *earnings* are down 27% while the multiple is up by 90%. That's a pretty crazy thing.


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## MrMatt

james4beach said:


> US Department of Labor reports jobless claims that are better than economists expected. Maybe stocks will surge for the remaining week of the year?
> 
> The S&P 500 is already up 16% year to date. This could be the best performing plague year ever! Maybe we should have a plague every year!
> 
> The index is now up a cumulative 55% for the trailing two years which is +24.5% per year, through the greatest economic catastrophe in recent history. I don't know about the rest of you but this strikes me as odd. This is obviously not just "pricing in a recovery". This is quite an insane P/E expansion, from P/E of 19.6 at the start of the graph below, to 37.2 today.
> 
> In other words, 90% expansion in P/E. The S&P 500 earnings were actually $137 at the start of the below chart, and roughly $100 now.
> 
> So corporate *earnings* are down 27% while the multiple is up by 90%. That's a pretty crazy thing.


I think it's because they're printing money and pushing low interest rates for a long time, and investors are desperate for inflation protection.








Selected Bond Yields


View or download the latest data for bond yields, marketable bond average yields and selected benchmark bond yields.




www.bankofcanada.ca





10 year rates are at 1.25%, real return bonds are negative.

At this point it makes sense to buy some companies and hope they at least match inflation because fixed income products don't.

This is really bad, good thing I'm not trying to buy an annuity.


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## MrBlackhill

Yup, with full S&P 500 on a log scale, the 2020 crash is actually just a blip on the chart.

Maybe we have all that economic bailout and 20-year bull run in response to the two very big crashes of 2000 and 2008?

I mean, the greatest market crashes of the past 80 years for S&P 500 were the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis, which all occurred in the last 20 years. The previous worst crash was in the 70s, otherwise it goes back to the Great Depression.

People who lived the dot-com bubble are cautious because it was a huge bear market (justified by a bubble), it's the biggest right after the Great Depression. I'm bullish for the stock market because that happened only twice in 100 years and one of them was due to times of world wars.

The market is pretty much spot on its trend, which is about 7% (price growth excluding dividends).

What I understand from the trend of S&P 500 for the past 120 years, is that the stock market cannot grow faster than a specific pace. Out of context, on a chart, the 1930 crash looks make like the result of a bubble. See how the stock prices rose so fast in the 1920s? That's the same case for 1995-2000. Why I call that a bubble? Look at the trend line, in 1995 on my graph above, it went above that trend by growing too fast for 5 years. I don't have the data prior to 1927 on Yahoo Finance, but we can see it was also a bubble. I'm calling it a bubble out of context, just from a chart trend analysis, don't get me wrong about all the events of that period.










Actually, I've found some data so here's S&P 500 since 1900. By the way, I know that S&P 500 didn't exist back in 1900, but the approximations of S&P 500 are based on DJIA and we can see that the -85% in the 1930s is mainly due to the bubble rise in the 1920s.



















If I remove the crashes which were calculated from the peak of a bubble, then 2000 is out because it wasn't a crash, it was the burst of a bubble. Real crashes were the 2008 crash which was the worst ever, then it's the 1970s crash in second position.

But hey - wait - even the 2008 was a bubble. By the way, looking at the graph, US is in for another bubble burst soon.










Canada feels safer.


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## doctrine

doctrine said:


> More often than not, markets go higher at the end of the year, especially November and December. So voting yes is rolling the dice right more than half the time, but still probably only 55-60% of the time - lots of room for error. The split Congress may play into it as the best of both worlds - no more Trump trade chaos, but no big changes in taxation or spending.


Let's look at what I said. November and December continue to be strong months, which they are more often than not. It's also interesting only a minority of votes - 10 of 26, thought the S&P would be higher. 

There are lots of reasons to be optimistic. Barring another black swan event, 2021 is virtually certain to be a year of increased demand and profits across the board. 

But not all areas of the market are up. Value companies especially. I would not be surprised to see a continued outperformance of value over growth, and I also wouldn't be surprised to see a big correction in the new year, maybe April-May, with likely a major sell-in-May sentiment combined with major sell-on-reopening news. Meanwhile, value continues to trade at _very_ reasonable valuations, as opposed to nosebleed growth multiples of technology stocks.


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## MrBlackhill

doctrine said:


> Let's look at what I said. November and December continue to be strong months, which they are more often than not. It's also interesting only a minority of votes - 10 of 26, thought the S&P would be higher.


Yes, there's that trend where November and December have been the best months for stocks. April also. August and September being the worst. But I wouldn't make a call on that.









Monthly Stock Market Returns


Which Months are Best (and Worst) for the Stock Market?



www.moneychimp.com


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## MrBlackhill

Happily lost my bet.

Started my investments this year on April 15, ended the year at +42% P&L (unrealized), or +53% unannualized XIRR.

Let's see what will happen in 2021.


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## james4beach

S&P 500 ended the year at 3,756 .... up 7% from when we took this poll.

The poll responses were pretty rational. Among us, there was a slight bias towards "up" with a large number of people giving a neutral outlook.


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## dubmac

TSX up 2.17% YTD on 2020. I guess that means if anyone YTD > 2.17%, then you "beat the street"!


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## james4beach

dubmac said:


> TSX up 2.17% YTD on 2020. I guess that means if anyone YTD > 2.17%, then you "beat the street"!


Looks like XIC had 5.6% total return for 2020


----------

