# Where we headed?...



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

anyone else have this nagging feeling in the back of your mind that everything (markets-wise, anyway) is just going to implode upon us one day...soon...???


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I get a little more concerned when I see that Trump is now tinkering with regulations imposed on the banking industry after the 08-09 financial crisis. http://fortune.com/2016/05/18/trump-dodd-frank-wall-street/. that scares me me a little. markets seem kinda "removed" from reality presently.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

I have same feeling. But like 2008/9, I will just hold our good dividend paying stocks (plus 40% FI) and continue to collect the dividends. Like sitting on an inner tube and letting the waves pass under you.


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## Eder (Feb 16, 2011)

Always a correction/implosion...I'll try to ignore everything whether up or down...I own quality businesses that will pay dividends thru thick & thin and I think I can handle another 35% downturn without having my head explode.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

What I know is that the market goes through bull and bear phases. Typically bull phases have lasted 7 to 8 years, but that's a rough guideline.

The current rally has been going on for almost 8 years so it's reasonable to think that we're closer to the end of the bull than the start of it.

That still poses two practical problems:

1) These are average measures, and a bull market could continue longer than 8 years. Maybe it will go 10 years! Heck, the way the central banks are manipulating markets right now, maybe "it's different this time" and the bull market will never end. Maybe the stock market will go straight up until the day you die, shattering all historical patterns and cycles.

2) Even if you correctly identify an imminent bear market and "exit" now, what are the odds that you will *successfully time your "re-entry"?*


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## mordko (Jan 23, 2016)

dubmac said:


> I get a little more concerned when I see that Trump is now tinkering with regulations imposed on the banking industry after the 08-09 financial crisis. http://fortune.com/2016/05/18/trump-dodd-frank-wall-street/. that scares me me a little. markets seem kinda "removed" from reality presently.


Trump, or whoever is advising him, got this one right.


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## Koogie (Dec 15, 2014)

agent99 said:


> I have same feeling. But like 2008/9, I will just hold our good dividend paying stocks (plus 40% FI) and continue to collect the dividends. Like sitting on an inner tube and letting the waves pass under you.


In almost exactly the same frame of mind and situation (just with 15% more FI). We own solid CDN dividend payors and broad market indexes. Also still work part time. So, we are prepared to ride it out.

If anything, I hope there is a correction. 10-20% would be just fine, for the buying opportunities !


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

The earlier link was about what Trump said he would do during the campaign. 

This link is about what he did yesterday, which no doubt is a first step.

Excerpt:


> The order starts a review of the financial system regulations including the Dodd-Frank reform act, the banking industry rules passed after the 2008 financial crisis that he heavily criticized on the campaign trail. A second action was expected to *delay a rule intended to require financial advisors to give customers advice that is in their best interest.*


What about that highlighted part??


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

I think most investors would agree that Trump is so unpredictable that the odds of something happening that could cause major international strife has increased significantly. Before Trump was elected it was argued that there were checks and balances to keep him in line but I think he is proving that he won't be restrained by checks and balances. To date, my action has been limited to raising my cash position slightly and selling off equities to pay off an investment loan. Historically, timing the market by going too much into cash has been a bad move but I'm currently evaluating if these are "ordinary times". Other than historical reasons, I'm reluctant to go too far into cash at the moment because I believe there will be initial market enthusiasm over the Trump government. However, while I wont make any extreme moves, I will consider for the first time the "sell in May" strategy for at least a small portion of my portfolio.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

OP here... i was hoping to keep trump out of this thread..... wishful thinking I guess...


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## Spidey (May 11, 2009)

jargey3000 said:


> OP here... i was hoping to keep trump out of this thread..... wishful thinking I guess...


It is hard to imagine Trump having zero impact on where we are heading.


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## aliwaaliwa (Feb 9, 2017)

think I can handle another 35% downturn without having my head explode


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## SMK (Dec 10, 2015)

Eder said:


> I think I can handle another 35% downturn without having my head explode.


Someone likes your wise words.


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## SMK (Dec 10, 2015)

aliwaaliwa said:


> think I can handle another 35% downturn without having my head explode


You think?


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

Well I have some concerns about the apparent lofty levels of stocks I want to buy, so I'm not in a rush. I only have 30% in stocks and want to be 100% but every time I go to pull the trigger, I think it probably is not different this time, and I hold back. I think I'll just collect meager interest from short term bonds until an enevitable correction (10%+ decline) arrives. 

Currently we have the exuberant, so called, "Trump rally". This optimisim can't last.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

I might add this: there should be an attachment showing low unemployment just before a recession. have a look at the chart and draw your own conclusion. Low unemployment tends to imply wage infation and infaltion in general, whcih in turn implies higher rates to fight inflation. typically, but not necessarily always, the stock market heads down before a recession is announced, so you can't use recessions as a predictor of a bad market. Plus if you look at the dates of low unemployment you and compar it to stock market indeses, you will see markets tend to peak around the time unemployment is low. (If you are logged in and click on the attacment you should get a larger version. )


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