# Spring is going to be a little late this year



## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

Seems that the infamous "polar vortex" is back with temperatures that are normally experienced in March, at least in my part of Canada.
The weather maps show this huge arctic temperature inversion hugging Ontario and parts of the east coast.
So much for the global warming myth.:biggrin:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...-destabilising-polar-vortex-study-claims.html

Snow storm coming up mid week too.

Now, is it just possible that the earth's wobble or whatever has cause the seasons to shift according to our calendar that was
set up 2000 years ago? Last December's weather was unusually warm..no snow in the Ottawa area from what I remember.

iI was wondering by Christmas time if winter would show up at all, as there were some diehard golfers still out on the 
outdoor driving ranges around that time.

Certainly things seem to be changing weather wise for some of us here, but is it all due to global warming or other weather
phenomena that could be wreaking havoc in the upper atmosphere?


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

If you understand the difference between daily stock prices and long-term trends in markets, you can understand the difference between weather and climate. Changes from year to year are just changes in weather, mostly random, probably influenced to some degree by climate change but the weather is capable of a huge range in entirely natural variation. I've seen thunderstorms in January and 1-meter snowfalls in late April during my lifetime. All within the bounds of natural variation. Similarly, stock prices can rise and fall from one day to the next by a huge amount. But it takes a few years to discern trends. If we have two bad years in a row, does it mean we're in a bear market? Maybe, maybe not; you won't know for sure until more time goes by.

Similarly, two late springs in a row doesn't mean the seasons are shifting. There are plausible links to climate change (mainly due to the influence of sea ice on the position of the jet stream), but it can also plausibly be explained by natural variation. This year can be colder than last year or we can have three years in a row that were cooler than four years ago but that doesn't mean there's no global warming. There's been a lot of variation in the global average temperature over the past 40 years, it changes from one year to the next, never a steady trend. But the last month in which the global average temperature was lower than the 20th century mean was February 1985. Every single month since then has been "warmer than average," even if not every month is warmer than the same month in the previous year. Similarly, stock market indices have a long-term upward trend, even if your returns this year weren't as good as they were last year.

So, the easy way to think about this is that stock prices and weather fluctuate by large amounts every year: that's the noise. To detect the longer-term signal (long-term trends in the stock market, or cliimate versus weather) you have to look at longer time frames.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ LOL! brad, you should know by now that stocks are not on the carveman's radars ...


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

brad said:


> Similarly, two late springs in a row doesn't mean the seasons are shifting. There are plausible links to climate change (mainly due to the influence of sea ice on the position of the jet stream), but it can also plausibly be explained by natural variation. This year can be colder than last year or we can have three years in a row that were cooler than four years ago but that doesn't mean there's no global warming.
> 
> So, the easy way to think about this is that stock prices and weather fluctuate by large amounts every year: that's the noise. To detect the longer-term signal (long-term trends in the stock market, or cliimate versus weather) you have to look at longer time frames.


The difference is that stock prices are manmade..it depends on the market..the weather patterns are not necessarily directly related to the human activity. 
Pollution is one thing, but the actual temperatures experienced during certain times of the year..middle of winter/middle of summer have more to do with
atmospheric pehenomena.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ LOL! brad, you should know by now that stocks are not on the carveman's radars ...


You are absolutely correct there Beav..right now with my medical conditions..if I were investing in the stock market, it would be in disability technologyinnovators. 
Iwouild like to see an Affordable set of battery operated legs (similar to a leg brace) that i could slip into, like a pair of ski boots, 
and wrap around my existing week legs which would restore my mobility..

or a perhaps a wheel chair that has a power adjustable seat for height and a foot stool extender mechanism, so I can raise my feet up and avoid circulation issues. 

Carverman's solutions...to the disabled.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

carverman said:


> The difference is that stock prices are manmade..it depends on the market..the weather patterns are not necessarily directly related to the human activity.
> Pollution is one thing, but the actual temperatures experienced during certain times of the year..middle of winter/middle of summer have more to do with
> atmospheric pehenomena.


Sure, but there's a lot of randomness in both systems. People used to be under the illusion that markets behaved "rationally" and that trends could be predicted by assuming rational investor behaviour, but investors are not rational and there's a lot of random variation in markets. A lot of investors get "fooled by randomness," to use the title of a book on that topic that came out some years back.


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## Daniel A. (Mar 20, 2011)

Here you go.


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

Daniel A. said:


> View attachment 9402
> 
> 
> Here you go.


Just like the olden days when you could buy a "lucky rabbit's foot" on a chain..this one is going to make a few "badger hair" shaving brushes..
6 more weeks of winter; early spring..it's now NINE weeks since Feb 2....I don't care if it's a groundhog or woodcchuck..he is going to pay for this flawed prognostication!:grumpy:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2491801/groundhog-day-early-spring-or-6-more-weeks-of-winter/


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

carverman said:


> ... 6 more weeks of winter; early spring..it's now NINE weeks since Feb 2....I don't care if it's a groundhog or woodcchuck..*he is going to pay for this flawed prognostication*!:grumpy:
> 
> http://globalnews.ca/news/2491801/groundhog-day-early-spring-or-6-more-weeks-of-winter/


 .. how? silly rabbutt ... :biggrin: Hey don't look at me, not related here.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICtCV3OJ7MQ


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## carverman (Nov 8, 2010)

agent99 said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICtCV3OJ7MQ


Thank you "agent 99'..er..Maxwell Smart.?...now lets "Get Smart" here...yes that was the song that got into to my head when I was typing the title on my post.


> Get Smart was an American comedy television series that satirized the secret agent genre. the show starred Don Adams (as Maxwell Smart, Agent 86), Barbara Feldon (as Agent 99),


 Yes, there have been many many songs dedicated to spring..that one season in the year that seems to be every ones favourite. 
another American standard by Sarah Vaughn.."Spring can really hang you up the most"..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enoPgQwy11U

" I know it isn't spring..".."spring is here"..... and more..



> 1) It Might As Well Be Spring - Stacey Kent
> 2) Spring Is Here - Jennifer Scott
> 3) Vivaldi: Four Seasons, Spring - The Canadian Brass
> 4) Spring On The Prairies - Connie Kaldor
> ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQxCt-nAEZM


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

carverman said:


> Thank you "agent 99'..er..Maxwell Smart.?


This IS agent 99! Watch what you say!

Wish you hadn't chosen Frank Sinatra for "Younger than Springtime"


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

This was my favourite spring song when I was growing up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhuMLpdnOjY


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