# Black swans: 1 in 4 probability of Russian default?!



## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

Have you caught any glimpse of a black swan anywhere lately?

What's got my attention... the probability that Russian default could be near 1 in 4. 
http://www.etftrends.com/2014/12/russia-etfs-slump-as-default-odds-soar/


And here's a fun fact... did you know that the stock of Apple is now worth more than the entire Russian stock market (with enough money left over to buy every Russian an Iphone 6)? 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...th-more-than-the-entire-russian-stock-market/

Any thoughts on how a Russian default might play out across world markets?


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

:hopelessness:


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Russia has almost no debt unlike USA who is -19trillion... also, Russian stock market doesn't represent/include a lot of Russian companies, most companies are owned privately over there

funny to see all these propaganda articles attacking Russia from every angle


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/yuan-ruble-swap-shows-china-challenging-imf-as-emergency-lender.html

Getting very interesting China steping in to help the Ruble.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Blin10 is right the west with all its debt isn't playing a very good game. Russia despite all the provoking has been rather quiet they have a lot of black swan cards that they could play so the west should watch out.


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

dogcom said:


> Blin10 is right the west with all its debt isn't playing a very good game. Russia despite all the provoking has been rather quiet they have a lot of black swan cards that they could play so the west should watch out.


I say watch for the wildcard of them ALL, The Red Dragon China its buying up all the gold @ these low levels, its buying all the cheap oil out there. It has all the manufacturing and the jobs to support itself and its making deals everywhere around the world now.

Add to this its doing this all without firing 1 single bullet. Masters of Sun Tzu Art of War 

Very Foolish of The West.

The west is going to have a Large Generation of Boomers retiring now pensions through the roof and there kids with Huge college debt and no proper income due to policys of previous generations. Not Blaming the Boomers, Its a 3 Generation issues Greatest gen/boomers Genx/GenY.

These last 2 years in the Metals market was the Western Banks short selling the metals and refuel the markets here along with putting confidence back into the system. Well we are going into 2015 and the west has used up alot of ammo up if you look @ the Bank forecasts for Gold 2015 its very hush $1050 level to $1250. I'd keep an eye on the Golden Dragon and The Golden Tiger.


India had its goverment ban imports on Gold the past 2 years, now That ban has been lifted we had our 1st $50 upswing right after the Swiss election.


I mean we wont have a collapse but will have a shift of power towards the east and more unrest here but he who has the GOLD makes the rules.


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## m3s (Apr 3, 2010)




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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Siicilliano698 Russia and China are also on board with first strike like the US other then the former MAD or mutually assured destruction. The western population is also a lot less capable of surviving and handling an EMP attack on its electrical grid then the east which has had to deal with more hardships. The US is also departing from capitalism and moving more to fascism. The only thing that makes it very hard to invest in this fake manipulated system that we now have is time. We really don't know how long it will take before it all falls apart so you don't want to be on the wrong side for to long waiting to be right.


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

yep totally agree, it's gonna be an interesting year ahead in 2015 for the game


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## supperfly17 (Apr 18, 2012)

Sounds like you two are planning to move to Russia in the near future. Please send postcards.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

exactly, China is already number one economy, now as you said with cheap resources they will become a much bigger player. China holds a ton of USD and US debt, the stronger China gets the more it can influence USA directly. Also, most USA production is in China and now Russia and China slowly partnering up. I really don't understand idiots in the Washington and the west, they are slowly killing themselves and stupid Harper is like a US prostitute. Wasn't the biggest fan of Jean Chretien but wish we had him still



Siciliano698 said:


> I say watch for the wildcard of them ALL, The Red Dragon China its buying up all the gold @ these low levels, its buying all the cheap oil out there. It has all the manufacturing and the jobs to support itself and its making deals everywhere around the world now.
> 
> Add to this its doing this all without firing 1 single bullet. Masters of Sun Tzu Art of War
> 
> ...


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## Siciliano698 (Nov 29, 2010)

Well It's an election year in Canada, Will be @ the polls making decisions for the future


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Russia will not have a sovereign default.
They have enough forex reserves, and much more gold reserves, to protect against that.

However, if you add in all the USD & EUR denominated Russian _corporate_ debt, then it becomes a different matter.
Theoretically, if the Kremlin were to bailout every Russian corporation with foreign denominated debt, then yes, the sovereign does not have enough reserves for that.
But that will not happen.

One thing to keep in mind is that Russia's external revenues are denominated in USDs.
As their Ruble falls, the nominal income from exports increases.

They are also starting to denominate more and more of their exports in Renminbi and Gold.
They have swap lines with the Chinese Central Bank, similar to how the Fed has with the ECB.

I'd say probability of a sovereign default of Russia is highly unlikely, although some Russian corporations may default on their bonds at some point.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

blin10 said:


> Russia has almost no debt unlike USA who is -19trillion... also, Russian stock market doesn't represent/include a lot of Russian companies, most companies are owned privately over there
> 
> funny to see all these propaganda articles attacking Russia from every angle


That's right! 

Even on CBC they show pure propoganda movie about Putin.... better show about Jean Chrétien 
btw, I'm watching now very interesting documentary of Oliver Stome "Untold history of United States" ...recommend to everyone


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

> and stupid Harper is like a US prostitute


 Yes, but what alternative do we have?!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

gibor said:


> Even on CBC they show pure propoganda movie about Putin....


I wouldn't say 'pure' propaganda.

Your inbox is full btw.


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

I thought I would post this here instead of starting a new thread.

http://kingworldnews.com/paul-craig...e-matrix-government-lies-manipulation-murder/

I know many don't like him or read his stuff but he does raise a lot of points and questions that should scare the forum crowd. We know everything is manipulated and free markets no longer exist and we also know unemployment and inflation numbers are also highly manipulated. The mainstream media as we know it is not free to write about a lot of this stuff or raise questions like this report does. We know Greece is coming clean about being bankrupt and the Euro is in grave danger. We also now know that Saudi Arabia plunged oil to try to get Russia on side against Syria.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...entire-oil-collapse-all-about-crushing-russia

But that comes from Zero Hedge so we can't believe this stuff. But then try this link then.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/04/w...-lure-russia-away-from-syrias-assad.html?_r=1

This is from the New York Times so forum buddies have no choice now but to know this is true.

I am not saying believe everything you read but beware that we are all being played in some way and it is extremely dangerous to your families health, your health and your financial health.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> I thought I would post this here instead of starting a new thread.
> 
> http://kingworldnews.com/paul-craig...e-matrix-government-lies-manipulation-murder/
> 
> ...


no news here dog ... paul craig roberts is a right wing, uber-bear nutbar ... zero hedge is parroting the times and the times story merely confirms what others have been saying for some time, i.e. the saudis have an agenda and oil is the instrument of that agenda


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Yes very true he is a right wing uber-bear. But this still doesn't mean much of that report like manipulated markets, unemployment numbers and inflation numbers are not true. We have been over the Ukraine issue but if it wasn't for the plot to overthrow the dumb *** but elected president of Ukraine by the west we wouldn't have any trouble between Ukraine and Russia and that would be a non issue. In fact if the west and the Saudis didn't decide to try and overthrow Assad we wouldn't have the ISIS issue we have today or it would have been a much smaller problem.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

and why did we got Bin Laden?!


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Right Gibor it goes on and on.

Here another one the BLS BS numbers.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/did-bls-forget-count-thousands-energy-job-losses


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

dogcom said:


> Yes very true he is a right wing uber-bear. But this still doesn't mean much of that report like manipulated markets, unemployment numbers and inflation numbers are not true. We have been over the Ukraine issue but if it wasn't for the plot to overthrow the dumb *** but elected president of Ukraine by the west we wouldn't have any trouble between Ukraine and Russia and that would be a non issue. In fact if the west and the Saudis didn't decide to try and overthrow Assad we wouldn't have the ISIS issue we have today or it would have been a much smaller problem.


what the usa and others can TRY to do in the middle east is one thing, what they can _succeed_ in doing is another ... the problem with roberts and alex jones and the rest is they attribute much too much skill and power to the cloak and dagger machinations of the usa and the saudis who both are stumbling along as best they can in the me

the attribution of *skill* is always one of the huge flaws of the conspiracy theories of the right-wing nutters


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Alex Jones is like the opposite of the main stream media and can't be taken seriously.

All the above and what Gibor said though is not conspiracy theory.

If the US didn't mess with Syria and Ukraine we would have no where near the problems we have today with wars and terror. Also the manipulation, inflation numbers and unemployment number concerns are not a conspiracy theory. Being that they are stumbling along as you say is also what Roberts says as well about them. He also rightly says this bumbling and stumbling is extremely dangerous for the world. You have to remember that Russia can blow up the US as easily as the US can blow it up with a lot of high tech weapons.


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## dime (Jun 20, 2013)

My fav headline this week is the Pentagon diagnosing Putin with Aspergers Syndrome. What a circus....


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## dogcom (May 23, 2009)

Thats hilarious, so I googled it and sure enough it was released and the USA Today had little problem running this story.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...n-aspergers-syndrome-study-pentagon/22855927/


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