# Twin Butte Energy (TBE.T)



## Calgary_Girl (Apr 20, 2011)

Just wondering what everyone thinks about Twin Butte Energy? We've had this stock for a couple of years now and I was debating selling it but last month they started paying a dividend with a yield >7%. With that type of yield, I think I'm going to hold onto it and I'm debating picking up some more.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

It looks like it has a P/E of around 15 and thus pays out 100% with a 1.5 cent monthly dividend. Its revenues though are up quite a bit - 30% vs 5% increase in shares. Quite a liquid stock for a $500M market cap with so many shares outstanding. I'm guessing it could be a volatile ride.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

I've held this since last year sometime and will probably hold for a bit longer and see if their Model works. It's suppose to be less than 35% payout ratio with the 18 cent yearly dividend.

Subject to the completion of the Transaction, the Twin Butte Board of Directors has approved an initial annualized dividend of $0.18 per share that is anticipated to be declared in the first month subsequent to completion of the Transaction. Based on Twin Butte's closing share price on November 11, 2011 of $1.94, this would provide a 9.3 percent yield. The dividend, on an annualized basis, would require $34.1 million or 34 percent of the combined Company's estimated 2012 pro-forma cash flow of approximately $100 million ($US90 WTI and $3.50/gj, AECO) based on estimated average pro-forma 2012 production of 13,700 boe/d. Twin Butte anticipates allocating approximately $66 million to capital expenditures. Twin Butte has significant tax pool coverage that is anticipated to provide shareholders with a tax efficient yield vehicle. 







doctrine said:


> It looks like it has a P/E of around 15 and thus pays out 100% with a 1.5 cent monthly dividend. Its revenues though are up quite a bit - 30% vs 5% increase in shares. Quite a liquid stock for a $500M market cap with so many shares outstanding. I'm guessing it could be a volatile ride.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Sorry, I meant 100% payout of net earnings, not cash flow. You do have to keep an eye on earnings because if they're just depreciating everything and paying you the cash, it will hurt your capital in the end.


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## PMREdmonton (Apr 6, 2009)

After reading about the company on their website and TRI, they seem to be primarily an income type, intermediate, stable oil producer focusing on efficient use of existing drilling locations. I do like the merger with Emerge as this will give them many more drilling locations to pursue in the future without taking on lots of debt. Their netbacks are okay and given their long-term plan and the eventual rise of oil costs once pipelines are in place I see major catalysts to improve profitability in the long run.

They also seem to be very shareholder friendly and are not overly grandiose in their plans. If you are looking for a safe and sustainable dividend play in the energy sector this looks to be a good choice.


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

My thoughts exactly, just waiting to see the next few QTRS. before I add any.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Down nearly 20% on an operational update.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1198409/twin-butte-energy-ltd-provides-operational-update

"At our Primate property, the Company has had another significant drop in production over the past 10 days resulting in current production levels of 1,400 boe per day as compared to forecast volumes of over 2,000 boe per day as a result of *increased water inflow* on a number of wells"

I'm guessing water inflows is not a good thing. I've always been following these guys along with a few other high dividend oil companies, but it never seems like they get below a 100% payout ratio out of net earnings so I've stayed away. Too bad, because 9.9% would be a great yield. Renegade Petroleum might be looking like this a year or two from now.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

I've owned them for a while now and am in the red. Renegade is in much much worse shape. These guys have a pretty good balance sheet and a nice asset base for heavy oil. Looks like in the last 18 months they drilled about 200 wells. Of those, 18 were at Primate. Is that a big deal? Sure. Is it a 20% drop big deal? I don't think so.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Down another 8-9% today.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I wonder how low the bottom will be?

Yield is crazy good but also crazy risky now. 

There are better monthly dividend payers, with lower, more sustainable yield and better payout ratios: BDT comes to mind. Would like to get my hands on 100 shares later this month.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Oh, I don't think I'd touch it. They had a 2012 annual profit of $0.15 a share and paid about $0.192 in dividends, then had a Q1 2013 loss of $0.12 a share and another $0.048 in dividends. Good luck to those that do hold it though.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Agreed. Just so many other monthly dividend payers not in the mess they are.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

I don't see this "crazy risk" that you guys are seeing. This is an oil & gas company. Valuing them on P/E or small net income vs net loss is obsurd. Their debt/CF is fine at 1.5, they're trading at $37.8k/flowing and trade quite a bit below their 2P value. Their management has outright said they will not sacrifice balance sheet to pay dividend. I don't wanna see high earnings, I wanna see reinvestment.


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## thompsg4416 (Aug 18, 2010)

Keep up the debate gentlemen I'm looking at this one as a "play" stock.. I got some chump change from my SU/BCE/BNS dividends from this quarter I might through into this and let it ride.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Don't get me wrong, I like this company and own it, but if I was to open a new position in oil, it'd be in WCP instead. Food for thought.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Almost tempting to take a position...even though they are in a mess....
http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=TBE

A good takeover candidate?

If climbs to $2 in another year or so, money well spent.

IF....


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## leeder (Jan 28, 2012)

My Own Advisor said:


> Almost tempting to take a position...even though they are in a mess....
> http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=TBE
> 
> A good takeover candidate?
> ...


LOL isn't it always money well spent when a purchased stock climbs 100%? And are we not bordering on speculating rather than investing when we start asking the "IF" questions?


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Fair points Leeder  All of this low oil stuff is speculation though...just some need more crystal balling than others (i.e., junior O&G stocks).


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## Fraser19 (Aug 23, 2013)

When I see stocks like this I think of what Suncor looked like from 1993-1998, and think to myself, is this where I cash out big? 
However, I have never actually gone in on a stock with that in mind.

I can tell you this, when I look a big players today and go far back in history to read up on share prices, I want to vomit. Paying 40-100 a share for something that traded at 2.00 20 years ago is not a good feeling. 

Either way I watch this stock, but I am not in a good enough position to gamble, which I feel this stock is.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

I think so Fraser19. I tend to avoid this stuff. I'm either indexing or buying household names for individual stocks. That's it. Less risk, more return this way.


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Don't know if this is legit or not?


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## al42 (Mar 5, 2011)

Here's the link to the TMX site..

http://www.tmxmoney.com/TMX/HttpCon...ge=en&Submit=Submit&QuerySymbol=tbe&x=34&y=13


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## My Own Advisor (Sep 24, 2012)

Thanks.

Geez.

Wow. 

Crazy.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

TBE in the news today. More Geez, Wow, and Crazy. 
Here's a junior that was around $2.25 for an extended period through to early 2014. 
Today, shareholders were willing to take 6 cents/share. 
Debenture holders rejected 14 cents on the dollar and the stock has since sunk to 2.5 cents/share today.

http://www.bnn.ca/twin-butte-debt-holders-reject-takeover-bid-1.557275


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