# Elections Result Thread



## sags (May 15, 2010)

A thread for as the results of the election.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Read that we won't find out the "final" results until at least Wednesday.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Oh yea........I forgot.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ It's okay, this thread is still good. Time flies.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

We won't find the final until after they cound all the mailed in ballots.
Which shouldn't take too long.
I don't think the mail in ballots will swing much of the result anyway.

There are only 1.2 million mail in ballots requested. 5.8 million voted in advance polls. 
We had just under 18 million vote in 2019.

So what is that, maybe 7% mail in ballots? Likely more if turnout is low, but unless mail in ballots are completely different from the rest of the riding, I don't think the 3-4% swing they offer will change much.


We'll still have a lot of "leading" later tonight.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Which party will play which song at their campaign headquarters when the results are in ?

The Greens are collapsing, so they likely cancelled the hall and band.

1. 




2. 




3. 




4. 




5.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Why is it so quiet around here?


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## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

Nothing's changed, more of the same, nothing to look forward to and nothing to debate that has not been already ad nauseam.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

diharv said:


> Nothing's changed, more of the same, nothing to look forward to


What does this mean? There are still more results coming in.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

james4beach said:


> What does this mean? There are still more results coming in.


Yeah, but it's been shaping up to be another Liberal minority, with the CPC picking up more of the popular vote, even with the PPC split.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Exactly. Without elections situation would be exactly the same as with election, except less division and more money in the budget.
Now only thing to speculate is when the next election is going to be. NDP technically holds all the cards. They went for broke this election cycle and they are....well......broke.
Might not want to call election until war chest is replenished.
Now will liberals take advantage of that or not?
Singh lost because a leader with 'I don't like it but I will vote for it' catchphrase is a hard person to get behind. Will he grow a spine now that the pandemic is over or no?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> Exactly. Without elections situation would be exactly the same as with election, except less division and more money in the budget.
> Now only thing to speculate is when the next election is going to be. NDP technically holds all the cards. They went for broke this election cycle and they are....well......broke.
> Might not want to call election until war chest is replenished.
> Now will liberals take advantage of that or not?
> Singh lost because a leader with 'I don't like it but I will vote for it' catchphrase is a hard person to get behind. Will he grow a spine now that the pandemic is over or no?


I don't think the Liberals will take advantage of the NDP weakness.
The CPC has lots of money, and another early election will look even more like a power grab than this one did.
The big problem the Liberals have is that it would be hard to craft a policy that would force a failed vote in the house. They had, and still have a very strong minority.
Whatever they propose that the CPC would reject, the NDP could support as "a partial measure to what we really want".

Nobody won, but the Liberals won the least, they're in a worse situation now than before.
About the same seats, and a lower percentage of the popular vote.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Surely Singh learns from his mistake eventually? They will never raise their seat numbers if they don't show that they are ready to govern rather than simply say 'yes' to everything?
Being 4th biggest party in Parliament can't be the peak of their aspirations. NDP has a huge potential while Trudeau is Liberal leader and so far they are squandering it


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Shouldn't have happened. Result predictable. Low voter turnout. 

Time to move on and get on with our lives, such as they are while still in pandemic.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> Surely Singh learns from his mistake eventually? They will never raise their seat numbers if they don't show that they are ready to govern rather than simply say 'yes' to everything?
> Being 4th biggest party in Parliament can't be the peak of their aspirations. NDP has a huge potential while Trudeau is Liberal leader and so far they are squandering it


NDP has seats, and 20% ish of the popular vote/support (strategic voting holds them back)
They can be a very noisy 10% of the seats and feel like they're doing good, while they push for PR/electoral reform.

Remember, this is the party of the protest generation, they don't care about actually getting in there and fixing things, they think protesting and "raising awareness" is enough.

That being said, they are really really noisy, and are quite successful at pushing the political discussion further and further left. Notice the question in this election wasn't IF we should massively increase spending and wealth redistribution, but HOW MUCH to do so. So I'd count that as a win for them.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

Election result is taxpayers are out $600 million dollars and nothing changed.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

MrMatt said:


> NDP has seats, and 20% ish of the popular vote/support (strategic voting holds them back)
> They can be a very noisy 10% of the seats and feel like they're doing good, while they push for PR/electoral reform.
> 
> Remember, this is the party of the protest generation, they don't care about actually getting in there and fixing things, they think protesting and "raising awareness" is enough.
> ...


It was as much NPD as Conservatives.
With Conservatives becoming left-wing party, Liberals had to go further left, and so did NDP. It also allowed PPC to rise.
Which came first in this election is chicken or an egg question.

The problem with NDP is that they aren't noisy, nor are they acting like a protest vote.
That's why they can't distinguish themselves and despite polling well, ultimately people go and vote Liberal. The reason is that NDP does what Liberal party wants anyway. They didn't manage to differentiate themselves at all.

If they repeat the same mistake again, they will be stuck as a party with 4th most seats.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

We could still have a debate. LPC may not have majority, but at least now they have +4 years to hopefully work their way out of the mess caused by the pandemic.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> The problem with NDP is that they aren't noisy, nor are they acting like a protest vote.
> That's why they can't distinguish themselves and despite polling well, ultimately people go and vote Liberal. The reason is that NDP does what Liberal party wants anyway. They didn't manage to differentiate themselves at all.
> 
> If they repeat the same mistake again, they will be stuck as a party with 4th most seats.


I disagree, the NDP has been able to move the agenda left. Remember if you get the policies you want, you won, even if you or your candidates didn't get elected.
We're legalizing drugs, massively increasing handouts, restricting freedom, implementing systematic racial/gender discrimination.

The NDP are getting exactly what they want, even if they're not sitting in the PMO.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

It kind of sounds exactly like what Liberals want. 
Bigger government, more spending, less freedoms


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Yep, start with banning/illegaling protestings at hospitals and/or healthcare facilities as a PRIORITY!


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Yep, start with banning/illegaling protestings at hospitals and/or healthcare facilities as a PRIORITY!


That is already banned. Critical infrastructure


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

^ Enforce it then!


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Yep, start with banning/illegaling protestings at hospitals and/or healthcare facilities as a PRIORITY!


If they're illegal protests, they should have already arrested them.
But remember, the government has already endorsed illegal protests, so it creates a real problem with prosecution.

Our government has a horrible history dealing with criminals.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Enforce it then!


They didn't enforce the law against the illegal rail blockades, they're not enforcing it here.
I agree, they should bust up the illegal aspects to these protests, just as they should have busted up all the other illegal protests, even the BLM protest the PM went too.

Honestly I think he should have been charged for participating in an illegal protest, but that's just me and thinking the law should apply equally to everyone.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Beaver101 said:


> ^ Enforce it then!


It was beneficial for politicians to have those protesters there instead of at rallies or legislature. 
So they didn't enforce it.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> It was beneficial for politicians to have those protesters there instead of at rallies or legislature.
> So they didn't enforce it.


I don't think the political convenience or value of a criminal act should impact enforcement.
But of course I'm not a Trudeau, who thinks it's great that daddy can make a call to get you off criminal charges.








Justin Trudeau: father's influence made my brother's marijuana charge 'go away'


Canada prime minister says his brother Michel was charged with possession in 1998 as government facing calls for blanket pardon for pot convictions




www.theguardian.com


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

MrMatt said:


> They didn't enforce the law against the illegal rail blockades, they're not enforcing it here.
> I agree, they should bust up the illegal aspects to these protests, just as they should have busted up all the other illegal protests, even the BLM protest the PM went too.
> 
> Honestly I think he should have been charged for participating in an illegal protest, but that's just me and thinking the law should apply equally to everyone.


Really? It looks like they arrested some of those at the rail blockades. Maybe there are others?








Police lay charges after arrests at Tyendinaga rail blockade


Ontario Provincial Police have announced the charges laid against ten people who were arrested Monday at the rail blockade in Tyendinaga, Ont.



ottawa.ctvnews.ca








__





Timeline of the 2020 Canadian pipeline and railway protests - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org





Looks like a number of arrests, maybe not fast enough for you.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Election result is taxpayers are out $600 million dollars and nothing changed.


Depends on when the next election is called, and what happens with the pandemic.

Without an election, an election would have been mandated in another 2 years. We have no idea what the pandemic will be like then.

If this term lasts 4 years, then there would be 2 elections over 6 years instead of 1 over 4 years.

Also the 2022 budget is going to be important and the Liberals may have faced a non-confidence vote anyways.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Also the 2022 budget is going to be important and the Liberals may have faced a non-confidence vote anyways.


But the timing would be pretty bad. The CPC and NDP will say "we've been reasonable all through the pandemic, the only way to stop these unnecessary elections is to replace the Liberals"


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

Trudeau himself said that next election likely to be in less than 18 months.
Minority government is unworkable


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> Trudeau himself said that next election likely to be in less than 18 months.
> Minority government is unworkable


This government was perfectly workable. It was one of the longest minority governments in history, until someone called an early election nobody wanted.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

MrMatt said:


> This government was perfectly workable. It was one of the longest minority governments in history, until someone called an early election nobody wanted.


It was very workable. There was absolutely no pushback. Only time opposition parties stopped a government policy was during an attempt to introduce dictatorship in March 2020.

During debate Trudeau said that elections are likely to be in next 18months if he doesn't get majority so we will see.
NDP struck out this time and they have to lick the wounds and (hopefully) learn from it first.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> Minority government is unworkable





damian13ster said:


> It was very workable. There was absolutely no pushback.


Okay, you're clearly trolling. You're literally contradicting yourself within 20 minutes.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

MrMatt said:


> Okay, you're clearly trolling. You're literally contradicting yourself within 20 minutes.


I am not. One is my opinion.
The other one was Trudeau's words.

Sorry if it wasn't clear from the context


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

damian13ster said:


> I am not. One is my opinion.
> The other one was Trudeau's words.
> 
> Sorry if it wasn't clear from the context


It wasn't clear at all. I'm not too picky on grammar, but obviously sometimes it gets confusing.
You have to differentiate somehow between statements by others, and statements by yourself.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

It depends on the opposition parties if a minority is "workable" or not.

I doubt Trudeau will call another election in 18 months. 

If there is an election it will emanate from a vote of non-confidence or blatant obstruction by the opposition.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Due to the election results, a lot of things are not going to be changed by a new incoming government, which is considered a "win" by a lot of progressives.

No repeal of the ban on assault weapons. No change to the climate change initiatives. No challenge to women's rights.

I think that Canadians voted in favor of the status quo. They actually like the Liberal/NDP alliance government.

It isn't surprising since the Liberals, NDP, Green and to some extent the BLOC represent 70% of Canadians on the left side of the political spectrum.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Due to the election results, a lot of things are not going to be changed by a new incoming government, which is considered a "win" by a lot of progressives.
> 
> No repeal of the ban on assault weapons. No change to the climate change initiatives. No challenge to women's rights.
> 
> ...


Actually Liberal NDP, Green and Bloc are barely 60%.
Liberal + NDP is looking like 49.9% of the popular vote, hardly a ringing endorsement of their coalition.

The Bloc isn't actually left or right, they're quite a mix of both.
They're kind of left in policy, but kind of right in "respect the constitution (which they never signed)"

I think this was simply the apathetic pandemic election they didn't want. There were no new ideas or anything, jsut a Trudeau power grab.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

Our Canadian mini-Mussolini wanted to be somebody larger and have absolute power... 
By he remained mini-Mussolini LOL
All parties are projected to get exactly same number if seats +/- 1! 
Who cares about wasted 600M?!


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

MrMatt said:


> Actually Liberal NDP, Green and Bloc are barely 60%.
> Liberal + NDP is looking like 49.9% of the popular vote, hardly a ringing endorsement of their coalition.
> 
> The Bloc isn't actually left or right, they're quite a mix of both.
> ...


60% of the vote is almost double what the Conservatives and PPC would receive.

At the individual riding level......the Conservatives would not have won many ridings outside of Alberta when the Liberal, NDP and Green votes combined.

The split in Liberal, NDP, Green votes almost lost the Liberal seat in our riding and the Conservative would have won.......except the PPC candidate drew off enough votes to prevent the Conservative from winning.

Split votes among parties has a huge impact on the results.

According to my "poor" math skills........the Liberal had 36.4% of the vote and the Conservative 32.2%, but the PPC drained off 5.2% from the Conservative.

Without the PPC candidate in the race.....the Conservative could have had 37.4% of the vote and won the election.

_With 234 of 235 polls counted in Monday’s election, Kayabaga had 36.4 per cent of the vote, followed by Flack at 32.2, Shawna Lewkowitz at 25 per cent and Mike McMullen of the People’s Party of Canada at 5.2 per cent. _









No change in London ridings as Kayabaga wins London West for Liberals


Less than three years ago, Arielle Kayabaga was a rookie on London city council. Now she's the city's newest MP.




lfpress.com


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> 60% of the vote is almost double what the Conservatives and PPC would receive.


First you said 70%, now you acknowledge that it;'s only 60%.

NDP+Lib is 50%, CPC+PPC is 40%.

Switch to PR (which I hate) and we'd be able to kick out the crazies and end up with likely some far less stupid policies.
Honestly if the capable people in the Libs & CPC got together, they could do some great things, there are even some quite competent people in the NDP, not too sure about PPC.

The problem right now is that the Liberals 
1. Follow Trudeau & Butts
2. Have to keep the NDP happy.

neither one of those is good for Canada.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

So change the rules so losers win and winners lose ?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> So change the rules so losers win and winners lose ?


Nope.

The rules we have aren't too bad, not perfect, but better than the mess they have in many other areas.
As long as they're fairly implemented and don't discriminate, I can accept not getting my way all the time. 
Sure I'd like better rules that more fairly represent the will of the people, but I only want to make forward progress to that end. I don't want to go backwards to something like PR which empowers party elites.

Most Canadians are law abiding agreeable people, so this is fine, as long as the rules are known, and interpreted fairly we're willing to accept it.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Election result is taxpayers are out $600 million dollars and nothing changed.


$600 million injection into the economy. Chickenfeed really, but still something.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> NDP+Lib is 50%, CPC+PPC is 40%.


Wait, if it wasn't of the BQ, most people from Quebec wouldn't vote CPC. Without BQ, Quebec would be a mix of LPC & NDP & GP.

Canada is most likely 65-70% left progressive vs 30-35% right conservative.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Wait, if it wasn't of the BQ, most people from Quebec wouldn't vote CPC. Without BQ, Quebec would be a mix of LPC & NDP & GP.
> 
> Canada is most likely 65-70% left progressive vs 30-35% right conservative.


I'd say Canada is like 80% left, 20% right.
Did you see the O'Toole platform.

I reject that moving towards a central authoritarian state is "progressive".
Respect for human rights is progress, and that's something the NDP and Liberals aren't interested in at all.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Respect for human rights


Human rights is subjective because maybe my rights beginning where yours end.

I'm pretty sure I can turn the other way around any example of what you believe to go against human rights.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I would say the biggest looser in this election is Erin O'Toole. His leadership has now been cast into question. This will take up much of his time, and the time of others in the Party. Some will be sharpening knives, some already have them at the ready. Instead of a sharp, clear focus on the election, how they need to move forward in order increase their appeal in the next election. I expect more right wing socons to move over to the PPC.

The writing is on the wall from them. O'Toole was shut out of urban ridings. For good reason. That must change if the Conservatives have a snowballs hope in hell of grabbing the brass ring in this century. In the short term I would be happy if they simply mounted an effective Opposition. Then got on with putting together a comprehensive platform for those who would like to see change.

Green leader was only a bit of a loser inasmuch as she polled fourth in her riding. What did she expect to happen in Toronto Centre? Was she expecting the seas to change in our old riding?

Trudeau lost the election. Not good. But the Liberals did maintain Government status AND his opponents have been wounded-some more than others.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I am sorry that Annamie Paul didn't win. She is immensely qualified and talented, with an Ivy League education and solid background.

I hope she runs in the future for the Liberals when someone retires. I think there is a good chance the Green Party won't exist in a few years anyways.









Annamie Paul - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Human rights is subjective because maybe my rights beginning where yours end.
> 
> I'm pretty sure I can turn the other way around any example of what you believe to go against human rights.


Discriminating on race, sex or other similar characteristic is IMO a human rights violation.

You don't have to explain how Liberals &NDP fail to see racial discrimination as racism, the white supremacists here demonstrated that quite well.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> I am sorry that Annamie Paul didn't win. She is immensely qualified and talented, with an Ivy League education and solid background.
> 
> I hope she runs in the future for the Liberals when someone retires. I think there is a good chance the Green Party won't exist in a few years anyways.
> 
> ...


She doesn't have the political skills to make it.

If Trudeau taught us anything, political success is not dependent on qualifications, talent or intellect.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

sags said:


> I am sorry that Annamie Paul didn't win. She is immensely qualified and talented, with an Ivy League education and solid background.
> 
> I hope she runs in the future for the Liberals when someone retires. I think there is a good chance the Green Party won't exist in a few years anyways.
> 
> ...


She is Black Canadian who converted to Judaism , so she Is the first Black and first Jewish leader of any party in Canada 😁
But I don’t understand what she is doing in anti Semitic and racist Green “Party “.
Don’t believe she will switch to even more Anti Semitic LPC, especially after anti Semitic Atwin found a warm welcome









Annamie Paul - Wikipedia







en.m.wikipedia.org


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

gibor365 said:


> She is Black Canadian who converted to Judaism , so she Is the first Black and first Jewish leader of any party in Canada 😁
> But I don’t understand what she is doing in anti Semitic and racist Green “Party “.
> Don’t believe she will switch to even more Anti Semitic LPC, especially after anti Semitic Atwin found a warm welcome


I think it's pretty funny that everything is antisemitic to you, except for whatever you say and whatever group YOU like.

Even though you're a far right wing person, and the far right is absolutely full of neo Nazis. The worst anti-semites around us are your buddies, including the MAGA people you like.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

agent99 said:


> $600 million injection into the economy. Chickenfeed really, but still something.


It employs a lot of people, by the way.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Some posters confuse racism with anything that threatens white supremacy. They are the ones with the racism problem, not everyone else.

Others claim that any critique of the policies of Israel (a country) is a critique of the religion of Judaism and is anti-Semitic.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I think it's pretty funny that everything is antisemitic to you, except for whatever you say and whatever group YOU like.
> 
> Even though you're a far right wing person, and the far right is absolutely full of neo Nazis. The worst anti-semites around us are your buddies, including the MAGA people you like.


I published couple of time poll showing that one 12% of European Jews tell that danger is from far right.
All Canadian left parties (and not only Canadian) have much more anti Semitic and their supporters than right and even ultra right ones


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Some posters confuse racism with anything that threatens white supremacy. They are the ones with the racism problem, not everyone else.


Racism is discrimination based on race.
Only a white supremacist, like you, thinks it's all about white people.

By your logic Martin Luther King was a white supremacist, because he wanted people to be treated like equals.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

IF the CPC is to go anywhere they need to address the deep divisions with in their party. These divisions have negatively impacted their last two election campaigns and the last two leadership races.

As a Party, they will not be ready for Government until they do this. IMHO it will be a gut wrenching process for the party, perhaps worse.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> IF the CPC is to go anywhere they need to address the deep divisions with in their party. These divisions have negatively impacted their last two election campaigns and the last two leadership races.
> 
> As a Party, they will not be ready for Government until they do this. IMHO it will be a gut wrenching process for the party, perhaps worse.


The issue is that there is no Conservative party in Canada, the CPC is just the not Liberal party.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

ian said:


> IF the CPC is to go anywhere they need to address the deep divisions with in their party. These divisions have negatively impacted their last two election campaigns and the last two leadership races.
> 
> As a Party, they will not be ready for Government until they do this. IMHO it will be a gut wrenching process for the party, perhaps worse.


But we want divisions when it comes to specific issues.
The entire idea behind first past the post is to choose an INDIVIDUAL that best represents you.
If you are choosing a party or individual who is expected to follow a party then FPTP is pointless


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Once the new Parliament settles in and gets the monkey business out of their system, they can sing the same tune under the direction of the maestro.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I am certainly not particularly happy with the Trudeau Liberals.

But...I feel the real question that should be asked was what made people in the urban ridings in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver reject Erin O'Toole Conservatives. Was it the candidate, the platform, the CPC policy statements, the performance or comments during the election. What was it? Because they absolutely failed in these key urban battlegrounds. Conservatives should have done better. Sure the actual vote count was up but this is a game of winning ridings. Excuses don't count in politics.

O'Toole's claim to fame inside the Party was that he could make serious inroads into Toronto 416/905. Will he get called on this failure or on his poor campaign performance? Or will his team try and blame everything on the PPC, say they are just 'warming' up for the next election, and go back to the same old, same old?

The thing is.....something is wrong with this Party. Or should I say this coalition of three parties rolled up into one that really cannot decide what it wants to be or even how it wants to present itself to Canadian voters. They need to sort this out. Fast. Punting O'Toole and bringing in another leader will not solve this.

The bottom line is that the Conservatives should have done much better in this election. This makes it zero out of three for their election record. When will the penny drop? The socons in the Party might like to consider how Derek Sloan fared in Banff Airdrie or how his spouse, Jennifer Sloan, fared in Hastings-Lennox. Both small c conservative ridings. Three percent and two percent respectively...both running as Independents.


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## diharv (Apr 19, 2011)

Where are the good dynamic potential CPC leaders that people can get excited about? Ones that you can say "yeah, I can see him/her as PM". First Sheer, then O'Toole. Vanilla blandness and no charisma, not much to get excited about. Trudeau has a charisma that appeals to his supporters, albeit sleazy, and that makes him especially unlikeable to his non supporters. Conservative voters are definitely more animated and energetic in their hate for Trudeau than in their love for O'Toole.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> But...I feel the real question that should be asked was what made people in the urban ridings in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver reject Erin O'Toole Conservatives.


Blind partisanship, and ignorance.
The comments I saw were about the abortion stance and a bit on the pro gun position.
CPC is now a pro-abortion party.
CPC is serious about gun crime, but understands law abiding Canadians with hunting rifles aren't the problem.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

ian said:


> But...I feel the real question that should be asked was what made people in the urban ridings in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver reject Erin O'Toole Conservatives.


Rule #1 : Big cities never vote conservative

Here's 20 years of data. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver *never* voted Conservative. Even when they were pissed with the Liberals, they preferred the NDP.









Story Map Series


This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.




www.arcgis.com







MrMatt said:


> Blind partisanship, and ignorance.


That's a totally free claim. So, there you go, people from Canada's biggest cities are ignorant. Yet they are the people running this country. And where's the high level of education the most concentrated? In the big cities.

I've lived in very rural regions and in very urban regions. Let me tell you where partisanship and ignorance are : definitely in rural regions.

And same goes in the US. The largest cities are in the states of New York, California and Illinois. When did you see those states vote Republicans? They've been Democrats for 30 years.









Story Map Series


This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.




www.arcgis.com


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> Rule #1 : Big cities never vote conservative


Firstly the CPC aren't conservative, they just have it in the name.
If you're not voting CPC because of the "Conservative" in the name that's being partisan.

Heck I still see people saying "I'm never voting PC", well that's good, there is no Federal PC party.



> That's a totally free claim. So, there you go, people from Canada's biggest cities are ignorant. Yet they are the people running this country. And where's the high level of education the most concentrated? In the big cities.


As far as my claim of ignorance, it's on specific issues that I
Well I DO think that those who don't understand an issue (ie guns) are ignorant on that issue.

Or concerns that the CPC are going to ban abortion, which they aren't. Again, they are being influenced by their beliefs and a lack of knowledge on the actual position of the party. That's partisanship and ignorance.



> I've lived in very rural regions and in very urban regions. Let me tell you where partisanship and ignorance are : definitely in rural regions.


I think that's a pretty elitist attitude, particularly the ignorance claim.
Exactly what issues are rural voters ignorant on?

I'm not talking different opinion, I'm not talking apathetic, I mean this definition of ignorance.
"lacking knowledge, information, or awareness about a particular thing"
Just FYI, having a degree in one topic doesn't make you more informed or educated in others.

I'm not going to say there are no issues that rural voters might not be ignorant on, but could you name a few because I simply can't think of them.


Also I don't disagree that the Liberals are a big city party, they know that if they make Toronto happy, they're pretty much guaranteed electoral success.
That's why they create a child care plan that would work in Toronto for middle class office workers, but won't help those outside major centers, or those with precarious employment. Big city Liberals simply don't understand/care about the problems outside their bubble.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> Firstly the CPC aren't conservative, they just have it in the name.


Let's just talk in relative terms.

CPC is more conservative than LPC. And CPC is more on the right than LPC.






The Political Compass


The Political Compass: a 2-dimensional typology of political opinions




www.politicalcompass.org







MrMatt said:


> Exactly what issues are rural voters ignorant on


They aren't all ignorant, it's not a generalization, but there's a higher proportion of less educated people who aren't well informed and don't care and who barely care about politics.

Myself being raised in a rural region for nearly 20 years, it took me less than 3 years living in a urban region to completely change my beliefs (because I'm open-minded).



MrMatt said:


> Just FYI, having a degree in one topic doesn't make you more informed or educated in others.


Definitely not, you are right. But living in big cities where you meet much more people from all around the world, more people with strong opinions backed by sound arguments and challenging your beliefs sure helps to open your mind.



MrMatt said:


> if they make Toronto happy, they're pretty much guaranteed electoral success.


Toronto + Montreal + Vancouver is about 1/3 of Canada's population.

Seems like there isn't a party able to make happy the remaining 2/3.


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

IMO, very simple (and serious reason) why the CPC didn't garner enough votes/seats - O'Toole lacks experience (as a PM) and Canadians are not going to spend the next 4 years starting over again with a new experiment, especially in a pandemic.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> They aren't all ignorant, it's not a generalization, but there's a higher proportion of less educated people who aren't well informed and don't care and who barely care about politics.


I think that's because politics should matter less.
Why is your commute a political issue? Because the urban people have government run mass transit. I understand that. The authoritarian government controlling all this makes their lives easier.

but can you suggest a single issue that rural people are as ignorant in as Liberals are on guns?
We had the former police chief of Toronto tell us restricting hunting rifles will reduce handgun shootings in Toronto. Ignorance is one of the key drivers to their political success. Heck I saw editorials that people don't need pickup trucks, and they should be banned. I'll tell you that many small businesses need their pickup trucks.



> Definitely not, you are right. But living in big cities where you meet much more people from all around the world, more people with strong opinions backed by sound arguments and challenging your beliefs sure helps to open your mind.


I disagree, living Canadian city urban, and now suburb, and talking from people from all around the world, lots of Graduate Degree people, in a variety of fields. I see a lot of like minded people who are scared to voice a differing opinion. They don't talk politics, or if they do, it varies by group.
In one group they all cheer everything the Liberals do, and everyone has red on the doors, then next section they're all orange cheering the NDP. There is very little real discussion.

However listening to people with strong opinions not backed by sound arguments isn't much of a challenge to my viewpoint.
For example, childcare, a problem I'm still dealing with due to my childrens age. I don't see how the Liberal plan works.
It only works if you have a cushy office job in the big city.
If not, you're cut off, you get nothing. How is that fair?
If you accept the premise that Government funding of child care is appropriate, which all 3 major parties do, how can you justify a program that only benefits a subset of the population? I haven't gotten a good response to this. Does the Liberal plan include 4am drop offs & pickups? support erratic schedules? 12 hour days? put centers in areas with very low numbers of children? Where is the "strong argument" that this is a good well thought idea?


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

The CPC must regroup and have a discussion about their vision and focus. They are currently not aligned with Canadian values and the younger generation don't care about that dinosaur of a party. They will never win with the current flip flopping on gun ownership, climate change, anti abortion values and Alberta-centric attitude -- we can see through the smoke show.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

@MrMatt

You are pointing on specific issues and you may disagree on how the LPC plans to address those issues. Maybe those issues weigh a lot to you. But not to everybody. And in the end, I also do strongly disagree with some LPC plans, but when I look at the bigger picture and the values, I agree more with LPC than CPC even if LPC is definitely not a perfect fit. Though I'm more in-between LPC & NDP than in-between LPC & CPC.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> @MrMatt
> 
> You are pointing on specific issues and you may disagree on how the LPC plans to address those issues. Maybe those issues weigh a lot to you. But not to everybody. And in the end, I also do strongly disagree with some LPC plans, but when I look at the bigger picture and the values, I agree more with LPC than CPC even if LPC is definitely not a perfect fit. Though I'm more in-between LPC & NDP than in-between LPC & CPC.


Yes, I'm pointing out 2 specific issues, because I felt they supported my point.
One is a prominent wedge issue based on the ignorance of Liberal voters. You claim the rural voters are ignorant, but can't seem to find the issue they're actually ignorant on.
The second is an issue that benefits bigger cities, despite more fair alternatives being available.

When I look at the bigger picture and values, I'm homeless.
But right now, the human rights position of the Liberals is horrible, so I'm left with protest votes, which right now means CPC, which might be slightly better.
All other issues are secondary to human rights.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

fstamand said:


> The CPC must regroup and have a discussion about their vision and focus. They are currently not aligned with Canadian values and the younger generation don't care about that dinosaur of a party. They will never win with the current flip flopping on gun ownership, climate change, anti abortion values and Alberta-centric attitude -- we can see through the smoke show.


Exactly right. It is the Conservative platform on key issues that does them in.

It is fine and dandy for O'Toole to stand before Canadians and make claims that he won't abide by the Conservative policies contained in the pollcy book with his smiling face on the cover, but Canadians simply don't believe him.

Take abortion rights for example. O'Toole says "he" is pro-rights, but also says he will allow a "free vote" among his MPs who could overrule him.

Canadians aren't fooled. They are looking at the policies of the whole caucus and party in general........and they don't like what they see.

The Conservatives policy book has to match their campaign rhetoric before they will have a chance of governing.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Exactly right. It is the Conservative platform on key issues that does them in.
> 
> It is fine and dandy for O'Toole to stand before Canadians and make claims that he won't abide by the Conservative policies contained in the pollcy book with his smiling face on the cover, but Canadians simply don't believe him.
> 
> ...


Yeah, free votes where your representative is allowed to represent the riding, instead of blindly following the party line.
Pretty reasonable.

Of course Liberals are all for women, as they work to stop sex selective abortion... oh wait, they don't care. I guess some women don't matter.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

The notion of stopping sex selective abortion is a red herring. Simply dog whistle for the base.


So, assume such a law is passed. Does anyone think that a woman who wants an abortion will admit that this is the reason? In all probability the physician all start any abortion discussion with a patient outlining the law. And then ask the patient why she wants the abortion. What do you think she will say……or not say her reason is?

I am not implying that I am for or against. Just pointing out the real practicalities of this proposed legislation.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> The notion of stopping sex selective abortion is a red herring. Simply dog whistle for the base.
> 
> I am not implying that I am for or against. Just pointing out the real practicalities of this proposed legislation.


Likely impractical, but honestly I think we have to do something about people pressuring women for abortion. This is the position of the vast majority of Canadians. But we can't have a discussion, unfortunately.

In fact I think we have to do something about people pressuring people for unwanted medical procedures in general.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> can't seem to find the issue they're actually ignorant on


If I point out something specific, you'll point out a specific counter-argument. We can't work on specific examples, we must be more general.

Let's at least agree that there's a urban-rural divide because interests are different. Unfortunately for the people living in rural regions, the Canadians are going urban and it seems like people going urban will also change their interests and point of view and end up more likely to vote LPC.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> If I point out something specific, you'll point out a specific counter-argument. We can't work on specific examples, we must be more general.
> 
> Let's at least agree that there's a urban-rural divide because interests are different. Unfortunately for the people living in rural regions, the Canadians are going urban and it seems like people going urban will also change their interests and point of view and end up more likely to vote LPC.


Interesting that you claim a whole swath of the population is ignorant, but can't find any examples.
I was pretty specific about particular voters, I think some people voted Liberal because of a gun policy, and that they support that policy out of ignorance.
My personal opinion is that many people support bad policy due to a lack of understanding, but I selected a very specific policy, because it's such a clear example.

I agree that the increasing urbanization of the country is a problem.
I think urban elitism, where they simply assume everyone else is ignorant, is an even bigger problem.
Unfortunately democracy doesn't handle tyranny of the majority very well.

This is one thing were the US actually did pretty well with their Senate structure.
I see clear problems for example PEI having the "same" influence as Ontario, despite the fact that they're really only a small town in terms of population. But our current situation where some 35% of the population decides the direction for the whole country is problematic as well.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

Jason Kenney was doing a first rate job as Immigration Minister in wooing the urban immigrant vote in Canada. He was working all of the ethnic communities and making excellent inroads.

ALL of this work went up in smoke overnight during the Kenney/Trudeau election. How? First it was the ridiculous Barbaric Practices Hotline. As if that was not enough it was Kelly Leitch spouting off about implementing a new citizenship test and an interview (she apparently did not know that the latter was already part of the process).

So, the Conservatives walked away from this segment of the urban vote that Kenney tried so hard to bring in to the fold by these foolish dog whistles to their 'base'. It was based on panic when the poll first indicated a slight CPC minority vs the previous majority polls.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

MrMatt said:


> I think some people voted Liberal because of a gun policy, and that they support that policy out of ignorance.


Goes both ways though. That argument is moot in my mind.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> But our current situation where some 35% of the population decides the direction for the whole country is problematic as well.


If the government was elected by popular vote, CPC wouldn't do well either, because that would give more power to NDP. They may have only 25 seats, but 17.7% of the votes.

As we said previously, it's more like 65-70% for LPC+BQ+NDP+GP against 30-35% for CPC+PPC.

And since moving from LPC to NDP is actually moving in the opposite direction of CPC, the Canadians are trending *away* from CPC.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> ALL of this work went up in smoke overnight during the Kenney/Trudeau election. How? First it was the ridiculous Barbaric Practices Hotline.


That was a masterful political attack, it worked wonderfully politically at least, for the victims of these crimes it didn't work out quite as well.

Of course now it's political suicide to call out Barbaric practices as barbaric, but you gotta win those elections.

Personally I think the people who support those barbaric practices should be forced to endure them.
Maybe a tip line, and a short line in a pamphlet wasn't enough, but you have to start somewhere.

Oh, and now that whole problem is a political no go, where is the the action on those practices? Anything?


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> If the government was elected by popular vote, CPC wouldn't do well either, because that would give more power to NDP. They may have only 25 seats, but 17.7% of the votes.
> 
> As we said previously, it's more like 65-70% for LPC+BQ+NDP+GP against 30-35% for CPC+PPC.
> 
> And since moving from LPC to NDP is actually moving in the opposite direction of CPC, the Canadians are trending *away* from CPC.


I don’t agree with your percentages and assumptions, but in any case , PR list system would be fair


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

I believe that the CPC has been lacking in some basic political 'smarts' and thinking for some time. They have lost some of their most astute folks.....Ambrose, Baird, Moore, Rait, etc. All representing different parts of the county. Conservative election performance in the Lower Mainland was abysmal. They gave away three seats to the Liberals. Rural....they picked up a few seats in the Maritimes but these rural seats remained Liberal for the most part.

What/who is left? The likes of MIchelle Rempel Garner ( a Buffalo Declaration signatory) and Pierre Poilievre and those of similar ilk. That is, when Rempel Garner is not in Oklahoma. It will take more than screaming and the waving of hands to to move the CPC forward.

The Conservatives are in desperate need of some depth. Some talent It was evident up in a number of their half baked platform positions and in O'Tooles flip flop flipping

This can be addressed.....if they are able to attract the right talent. That appears to have been a big IF over the past several years.


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## fstamand (Mar 24, 2015)

ian said:


> Rempel Garner and Pierre Poilievre and those of similar ilk.


I would love to see poilievre next. He's got failure written on his forehead. This would be very entertaining.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

We "need" a viable opposition, and I would like to see a solid Conservative leader.

I have good first impressions with the Conservative leader in Nova Scotia. He sounds very measured and has been keen to emphasize that he is "progressive".

An accountant (smart financially) and a thoughtful progressive..........might be attractive on the national stage.

The question is as Ian said........would he ever want the job, because many don't.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

On issues like abortion and gun control for example.....I is sit right in the middle, and see the choices on the extreme opposites of the spectrum with little effort to meet in the middle.

On abortion, for example.......our son is adopted but I strongly support a woman's right to decide ultimately and be provided with free quality healthcare, but I think we can do much more to support women financially and in other ways to encourage fewer abortions. We also need to educate young women and provide free birth control. It would be better for society to reduce abortions wherever possible, but women must be allowed to make the final decision.

On gun control........I strongly support hunters and rural people to own guns for protection against wild animals, provided they pass the necessary background checks and training. But, I don't see any need for people to own weapons that aren't involved in hunting, like automated assault weapons. I also agree we need to do more to stop street violence and imprison those involved. The guns aren't magically appearing in our city streets. They are coming from the US and we need to stop the flow of illegal weapons.

But..unfortunately there are no political parties representing my "middle of the road" ideology. It is always this or that.........with no middle ground.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> On issues like abortion and gun control for example.....I is sit right in the middle, and see the choices on the extreme opposites of the spectrum with little effort to meet in the middle.


There is no politcal benefit to reasonable middle discussion.



> On gun control........I strongly support hunters and rural people to own guns for protection against wild animals, provided they pass the necessary background checks and training.


We have that.
We even have what the US calls "red flag" laws.
Your spouse must also approve you getting a firearms license.



> But, I don't see any need for people to own weapons that aren't involved in hunting, like automated assault weapons. I also agree we need to do more to stop street violence and imprison those involved.


Those have been prohibited for decades


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

No, the Liberals just added a bunch more to the list, which is what O"Toole pledged to repeal.

The law will continue to be updated as new weapons are developed from the initial legislation in the 1970s.


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## bgc_fan (Apr 5, 2009)

ian said:


> I believe that the CPC has been lacking in some basic political 'smarts' and thinking for some time. They have lost some of their most astute folks.....Ambrose, Baird, Moore, Rait, etc. All representing different parts of the county. Conservative election performance in the Lower Mainland was abysmal. They gave away three seats to the Liberals. Rural....they picked up a few seats in the Maritimes but these rural seats remained Liberal for the most part.
> 
> What/who is left? The likes of MIchelle Rempel Garner ( a Buffalo Declaration signatory) and Pierre Poilievre and those of similar ilk. That is, when Rempel Garner is not in Oklahoma. It will take more than screaming and the waving of hands to to move the CPC forward.
> 
> ...


Harper pretty much kept a lid on some of the more "extreme" parts of the party, which made it easier to sell. O'Toole was trying to do the same thing, but still trying to appease them to avoid their defection to the PPC. But it was telling that O'Toole reached back to Mulroney and not Harper.

I don't think that he was really flip flopping. The issue was that a lot of the promises were not really aligned with Conservative policy. The main example was their carbon-tax light proposal. The social conservatives went along with O'Toole's approach because they thought it may work, but given that they still lost without the urban gains, they're calling for O'Toole's head.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

What concerns me about the Conservative Party is that loss of deep talent and their seeming inability to attract new talent. That speaks volumes to me about the state of the Party and the divisions within it. This team is not all marching in the same direction. Far from it. This is a huge challenge for any Leader.

Hard to defeat the Liberals when your days and nights are spent herding cats and placating opposing groups inside your own party vs spending every waking moment going all out for the Trudeau Liberal's proverbial jugular. 

If the product is not displayed in the store window in an attractive and appealing manner.....the customers will not bother coming through the door to shop or buy. Urban or rural.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> No, the Liberals just added a bunch more to the list, which is what O"Toole pledged to repeal.
> 
> The law will continue to be updated as new weapons are developed from the initial legislation in the 1970s.


No need, they banned automatic weapons.

The issue is the list is banning normal rifles, not automatic weapons.

Just because a rifle is black, or ergonomic doesn't make it more dangerous.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> What concerns me about the Conservative Party is that loss of deep talent and their seeming inability to attract new talent. That speaks volumes to me about the state of the Party and the divisions within it. This team is not all marching in the same direction. Far from it. This is a huge challenge for any Leader.
> 
> Hard to defeat the Liberals when your days and nights are spent herding cats and placating opposing groups inside your own party vs spending every waking moment going all out for the Trudeau Liberals proverbial jugular.


The Liberals have the same problem, when Trudeau took over, many of the senior Liberals slid out the back door.
Beyond Freeland, they really don't have many A players either.


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

gibor365 said:


> I don’t agree with your percentages


There's nothing to agree with the percentages, it's the actual percentages.

Those 17.7% who voted NDP certainly wouldn't vote CPC.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

I'm pretty sure if there was a real centrist party, it would pick up a lot of votes from the CPC and Liberals.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

MrMatt said:


> The Liberals have the same problem, when Trudeau took over, many of the senior Liberals slid out the back door.
> Beyond Freeland, they really don't have many A players either.


Yes, that may or may not be true.

The difference being that the Liberals had the skill to put together winning election teams and campaigns..

The Conservatives have not managed to make it past second base during the last three ball games. They always seem to strike out in the fifth or sixth inning.

Houston...we have a problem!!!


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## fourtwenty (Jan 9, 2021)

sags said:


> We "need" a viable opposition, and I would like to see a solid Conservative leader.
> 
> I have good first impressions with the Conservative leader in Nova Scotia. He sounds very measured and has been keen to emphasize that he is "progressive".
> 
> ...


Please don't confuse the western religious ideology dominated CPC with an east coast provincial PC party. They are NOT the same. There is absolutely nothing progressive about the CPC. I could get behind a real social progressive conservative party but that is not the CPC.

A "_thoughtful progressive_" will never win a CPC leadership race. Peter Mackay is the most recent example.


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MrMatt said:


> I'm pretty sure if there was a real centrist party, it would pick up a lot of votes from the CPC and Liberals.


And if we switch to popular vote system, political landscape would be very different


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## gibor365 (Apr 1, 2011)

MrBlackhill said:


> There's nothing to agree with the percentages, it's the actual percentages.
> 
> Those 17.7% who voted NDP certainly wouldn't vote CPC.
> 
> View attachment 22199


Then how Harper got majority not long one ago?! Sure, since Trudeau came to power, Liberals brought here a lot of voters (targeted pseudo refugees acceptance), but still ....


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

A "_thoughtful progressive_" will never win a Liberal leadership race. Chretien is the most recent example.

A "_thoughtful progressive_" will never win a NDP leadership race. I don't think they've had anyone thoughtful.

The other thing is what does progressive mean?

Does it just mean make things worse for more people? Or is there some other definition.


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## Eclectic21 (Jun 25, 2021)

gibor365 said:


> Then how Harper got majority not long one ago?!


FPTP?

For the 2011 election, CPC popular vote was 40% but the seats elected was 54%.

The NDP don't seem to factor in as a source of the majority as they took 31% of the popular vote with 33% of the seats. This was an increase as the 2008 NDP numbers were 18% and 12%.

The Iqnatieff lead LPC suffered a drop with 2011's being 18% with 11% of seats where the 2008's 26% with 25% of seats.

The BQ also dropped with 6% with 1% of seats instead of the previous 10% with 15% of seats.


Basically, it looks like the LPC and BQ provided what was needed while the CPC had increases.


Cheers


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## fourtwenty (Jan 9, 2021)

MrMatt said:


> A "_thoughtful progressive_" will never win a Liberal leadership race. Chretien is the most recent example.
> 
> A "_thoughtful progressive_" will never win a NDP leadership race. I don't think they've had anyone thoughtful.


Where did anyone say a thoughtful progressive has ever won a Liberal leadership race? I was simply replying to sags who was wishing for a thoughtful progressive to lead the CPC. All I said was that will never happen. I never said any of the other parties have done that. I'm sure you assume I am a liberal because I don't like the CPC but ALL the federal parties make me sick to my stomach. IF a socially progressive, fiscally conservative federal party existed they would get my vote. I mean the CPC isn't even fiscally conservative. Didn't Harper run Canada into record debt and deficit (at the time)? At least TURDeau was honest about doing that when he won in 2015. This doesn't mean I agree with how he ran up our debt either.



MrMatt said:


> The other thing is what does progressive mean?
> 
> Does it just mean make things worse for more people? Or is there some other definition.


Context is everything, try to keep up. In the context of sags comment I took it to mean someone like the premier of Nova Scotia, whom sags gave an example as a conservative he considered thoughtfully progressive.

I'll acknowledge that in comparison to the other CPC leaders O'Toole has looked _very_ progressive during the election but that doesn't say much when you look at who he is compared against. He did pretty good at trying to look like he wasn't your CPC leader of old, but if he had exhibited this same "progressive" outlook during the leadership race I don't think he would have been elected the leader of the CPC. Not quite Jekyll and Hyde but I bet if you ask his base they would say his policy positions during the campaign are not what they signed up for. It didn't even work either. His campaigning as a "social progressive" during the election did not go far enough to attract many moderates, and he managed to piss off his base by swinging too left at the same time. With the rise of the PPC it's going to be very hard to walk that line in the future and be successful.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

At the end of the day it is results that count. Three elections down and not one winner. This time out they even lost more urban seats even though urban seats were supposed to be a target. Surely by this time, for some influential Party members, alarm bells must be ringing. If I was an individual donor to this Party I would not be giving one red cent until some sort of change was implemented. Otherwise it would be money down the drain.

Coming in second, with a potential loss of two seats is worse that kissing your sister.

Conservatives need to face up to it. This was a disaster. There are only two remaining issues. Do they really want to determine why they have lost the last three elections? Will they do anything positive and effective to make the changes necessary to appeal to more Canadian voters.


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## damian13ster (Apr 19, 2021)

ian said:


> At the end of the day it is results that count. Three elections down and not one winner. This time out they even lost more urban seats even though urban seats were supposed to be a target. Surely by this time, for some influential Party members, alarm bells must be ringing. If I was an individual donor to this Party I would not be giving one red cent until some sort of change was implemented. Otherwise it would be money down the drain.
> 
> Coming in second, with a potential loss of two seats is worse that kissing your sister.
> 
> Conservatives need to face up to it. This was a disaster. There are only two remaining issues. Do they really want to determine why they have lost the last three elections? Will they do anything positive and effective to make the changes necessary to appeal to more Canadian voters.


I think PPC was a curveball they didn't expect. Cost them about 15 seats.
That's what happens when you become left wing party though. People from the center and center-right simply can't stomach voting for you anymore so they would rather go with protest vote.
In federal politics we have far left, extreme left, and stupid left parties now. So anyone right-of center is left with no choice


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## MrBlackhill (Jun 10, 2020)

damian13ster said:


> So anyone right-of center is *left with no choice*


Just pointing out how amazing is this sentence.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

damian13ster said:


> I think PPC was a curveball they didn't expect. Cost them about 15 seats.
> That's what happens when you become left wing party though. People from the center and center-right simply can't stomach voting for you anymore so they would rather go with protest vote.
> In federal politics we have far left, extreme left, and stupid left parties now. So anyone right-of center is left with no choice


I have not seen the numbers of those seats where the Conservatives lost by the number, or less than the number, of PPC votes. I suspect that it will be less than people think. I read a report a few days ago of a survey of PPC voters. According to the report, one third to one half of those indicating that they would vote for PPC would have previously voted CPC.

Once all the numbers are tabulated I am certain that someone will do as accurate an analysis as possible.

The bottom line is that the PPC did not cause the Conservatives to loose this election....and loose it badly. They did this by and to themselves. They tried to blame all of the last election loss on Scheer rather than doing the heavy work, the self inspection to truly understand why they had two losses in a row. Now they have three consecutive election losses in a row to consider. Will they now blame O'Toole and go on as before? Who knows?

The big question.....will they go for four consecutive election losses or will they do the work to understand why they failed in the past what they have to do to attain success in the future? I read once that the definition of stupidity was doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.

I do not have a problem with minority Governments. Some of Canada's best, and longest lasting programs were put in place by minority Governments.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Yes the PPC split the vote, but the CPC failed to earn it.
I only voted CPC strategically anyway, O'Toole is better than Singh, so it's was a no brainer


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## Mechanic (Oct 29, 2013)

I don't know why we even bother to vote in Western Canada. Seems Ontario and Quebec are the deciding areas, they have all the seats. Don't see much chance of change, no matter how the West votes.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

My guess is that here is not one Federal or Provincial political leader who does not privately envy Justin Trudeau's electoral record. Three general election wins in a row. Not common.

He sent one, a once popular former PM into early retirement, one Opposition Leader into certain political obscurity, and changed the priority of the third one to whether or not he can remain living in the official residence of the Leader of HM. Opposition.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> My guess is that here is not one Federal or Provincial political leader who does not privately envy Justin Trudeau's electoral record. Three general election wins in a row. Not common.
> 
> He sent one, a once popular former PM into early retirement, one Opposition Leader into certain political obscurity, and changed the priority of the third one to whether or not he can remain living in the official residence of the Leader of HM. Opposition.


Trudeau is a political genius, everything else, pretty horrible. But his political success is astounding.

Most of the country think he's doing a bad job, Canada is worse under his "leadership", and he still won an election.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

If the goal is to become the government, Trudeau won where it mattered. O'Toole won where it didn't.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

sags said:


> If the goal is to become the government, Trudeau won where it mattered. O'Toole won where it didn't.
> [/QUO
> 
> Apparently O'Toole knew days before the election that it would be a Liberal minority. Both parties did on going polling in critical ridings.
> ...


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

You only need 35 percent for a Minority Government in Canada, 39/40 percent for a Majority Government.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Reflective of so many parties splitting up the vote.

People who say any party doesn't have a mandate because they don't get over 50% of the vote don't understand the dynamics in play.

Maybe they watch too much US politics where they only have 2 parties.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

We have a civic election in Calgary. Something like 28 candidates for Mayor on the ballot.. Yes 28!. Essentially three front runners. Some serious plus the usual fruit cakes and/or attention seekers.

Someone could become Mayor with 10 percent or less of the votes. Even worse if you consider the voter turnout could be 40 percent or less.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

ian said:


> We have a civic election in Calgary. Something like 28 candidates for Mayor on the ballot.. Yes 28!. Essentially three front runners. Some serious plus the usual fruit cakes and/or attention seekers.
> 
> Someone could become Mayor with 10 percent or less of the votes. Even worse if you consider the voter turnout could be 40 percent or less.


We did ranked ballot. Solves that problem, but then you end up with boring leaders who are relatively light on controversey.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Mechanic said:


> I don't know why we even bother to vote in Western Canada. Seems Ontario and Quebec are the deciding areas, they have all the seats. Don't see much chance of change, no matter how the West votes.


Alberta would have more influence if they weren't able to be taken for granted by the CPC. If CPC had to earn their votes and the other parties had a chance of winning there, their interests would be much higher prioritized. Downtown Toronto gets similarly ignored. All the focus is on swing suburban ridings in Ontario, Quebec and BC.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

andrewf said:


> Alberta would have more influence if they weren't able to be taken for granted by the CPC. If CPC had to earn their votes and the other parties had a chance of winning there, their interests would be much higher prioritized. Downtown Toronto gets similarly ignored. All the focus is on swing suburban ridings in Ontario, Quebec and BC.


The GTA has outside influence federally and totally dominates Ontario politics.
We actually have a city of Toronto act, giving Toronto powers that are denied to every other municipality in the province.

I don't think Downtown Toronto gets ignored. They get massive amounts of Federal and Provincial cash.
Sure they might get overwhelmed by the rest of the GTA, but that's really no different than the rest of the province/country.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

City of Toronto has influence in provincial politics because it is 20% of the population. In federal politics, not so much. The swing ridings are the 905 belt.


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