# PWT:Pennwest



## gladaki (Feb 23, 2014)

They are trading on 52 weeks low.
Any thoughts. I am not buying them just following them.
They are quite cheap when you compare the assets they have.

Though Revenue, Earnings and Cash flows are all declining.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

yep. I am watching as well. 
They probably cant finance because debt load is too much. But they do have great land holdings.
I ran the numbers and have a firesale book value that I am patiently waiting for it to hit.

Though, I wont commit too much money as PWT accountants have already been shown that they do not give true numbers.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Yeah Penn West accountants are the only ones I've seen rig the books the WRONG direction; understated.

If oil doesn't go back to $65+, my guess is bankruptcy or whole company is sold for lower price than it is today. TD is modeling $0.70/share by next December. If you don't own it, keep it that way. So many better names to pick from.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

Ohh it's getting close to my price.
I can't believe I'm getting excited to buy a dog like penn west.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

I was looking at this one too. Perhaps it's in the ditch for all the right reasons. Hmmmm. Could pay out well in a swift recovery.


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

What is it with interest in the absolute worst companies in a sector on this site? Even when oil was high, this company was going down the tubes.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

hint-look at insider buying.

compare the difference between PWT and COS or SU.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Up, up.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

did you get in on that big dip?


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## tygrus (Mar 13, 2012)

You are flirting with a corrupt company.


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

No, I checked my pants and I didn't have enough to pull the trigger.

Insider trading counts for something I would say.


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

tygrus said:


> You are flirting with a corrupt company.


yeah PWT is the only one.

Yesterday, Schlumberger reported laying off 9000 workers worldwide and on the same day raised their dividend 25%.
The whole system is flawed but what is the alternative?


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Up 18% now.


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## Fraser19 (Aug 23, 2013)

The rise in PWT is not really anything that provides me with comfort. Most O&G stocks are up 5-10% I need to see something more concrete to buy in right now. 

Besides even if they release some information that provides great assurance that they can repay the debt in a reasonable way and become profitable there will still be great buying opportunity on the way up.

We don't even know if we have hit the oil floor, what will happen if oil move down even a little lower and stays there for 6-12 months. How will PWT make it through that? While I have been impressed with the turn around so far, it has all really happened at a bad time.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

Just over 300k shares insider trading in 2 months is good for a $2 stock?? That's nothing to brag about. PWT is entirely unhedged and oil isn't turning around any time soon. They are gonna have a massive Q1 loss followed by a likely cut in NPV on their reserves. Good chance they will breach debt covenants, have to cut whole dividend, lay off a bunch of staff, and sell a few properties at today's prices. This is not a stock you buy and hope for a 20% return unless you're just here for a quick trade. The risk-reward here is huge. If I bought shares of this, anything under a 300% return in a couple years wouldn't be worth it due to the far higher chance of it going to $0.


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## Fraser19 (Aug 23, 2013)

Debt at 2.2B
502 M shares.
91k BOE/D

Would this not be an easy target for a hostile takeover? I would imagine the share holders would be willing to take a way out for a modest premium. The stock has lost 94% over the past 5 years, they have no hedges EPS is negative $4.15. The dividend is .01C per quarter and I can't see any way they can afford to pay that.

Based off my calculations a takeover at today's price would be $29,361.00 per flowing barrel, which does not really seem to be too far out so scope for many other possible takeover targets. I don't see much hope for PWT share holders other than a takeover.


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Fraser19 said:


> Debt at 2.2B
> 502 M shares.
> 91k BOE/D
> 
> ...


that's exactly how I feel, if oil stays this low longer PWT is a goner


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## 0xCC (Jan 5, 2012)

PWT suspends dividend and cuts capex, reduces workforce 35%.
http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135255

Who is going to eliminate their dividend next?


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## Fraser19 (Aug 23, 2013)

Pengrowth cut it's dividend again.
Starting in October it is .01c/quarter.


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

Fraser19 said:


> Debt at 2.2B
> 502 M shares.
> 91k BOE/D
> 
> ...


PWT has been an interesting ride for sure and it will be for a while. I invested in to see whether I could make it triple or nothing and it is certainly going toward nothing. Well. Lesson learned!


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

I think most people have got it wrong on Penn West...

It's got some very valuable assets and the company as done some tremendous changes to decrease cost expenditure... It's got a nice edge program allowing higher revenue on part of the production, it's reduced it's debt considerably by selling non-core assets and to pay it off and continues to look into more selling and debt reduction... Finally, unlike other Oil and energy players, its redeterminations on loans aren't prior to its scheduled maturity in May 2019... So unless it constantly looses loads and loads of money, it will weather this oil climate out and I would bet that oil as some way up before 2019 allowing to sell the stock much higher. 

The stock's book value is OVER 10$ ... Granted, there should be some huge reductions to this to take into account all the difficulties in the oil industry... But however drastic one can be, we are still a LONG way from it's close today at $ 0.74...

It is risky, but I think the company will survive or be bought off at a much higher price... 

Third quarter results will be deceiving and the shares will be sold off even more, but afterwards it will hit equilibrium between revenues and costs and there will be massive upside!!!


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## CPA Candidate (Dec 15, 2013)

Value I think you should take a look at the pricing assumptions that form the foundation of the company's book value.

The WTI price assumption for 2016 is $80 and for 2017 it is $90 (page 20 of the 2014 annual report). Completely unrealistic given the current situation. I'm appalled the auditors actually used these numbers.

Expect absolutely massive write downs at the conclusion of this year.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

The equity in PWT is essentially worthless below $50 oil and maybe even $55. They had a 7 times debt to cash flow ratio last quarter, which includes the effect of hedges. That is pretty bleak. Even debt holders will be taking a big haircut if they take over the company.


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## Feruk (Aug 15, 2012)

At today's prices, they really only have one (maybe two) economic play, and they significantly lowered the value of that play through royalty sale. They will likely take a 30-50% haircut on their reserves in Q1 (on top of cuts for dispositions). Their hedges are nothing to brag about; all made after oil took a tumble. They now HAVE TO stay within cash flow as per the terms of their renegotiated debt covenants. As well, any dollars from asset sales go straight to paying down debt. The company will continue to shrink even when you ignore disposition. They will of course announce that the reason they shrunk is dispositions, which is a half truth. Debt to CF will continue to rise as well.

The recent layoffs structured them for potential sale, or more likely piecemeal selloffs. I'm guessing the staff cuts were bank demanded. They've spent the last couple years being too stupid to sell one of their key plays, which is the only thing that'd make a meaningful dent in their enormous debt load.

As previously stated, the equity here's almost worthless. I wouldn't touch this stock, and if I was a shareholder, I'd likely sell my position.


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## Fraser19 (Aug 23, 2013)

Penn West is now selling another asset for 192.5m


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Fraser19 said:


> Penn West is now selling another asset for 192.5m


Hello Guys...

Just a quick and gross valuation of the Penn West assets based on their late sells from which I could obtain information... Bare in mind that I DO NOT know much about the Oil and Gas property market and I could be WAY off, but I think it could be accurate to get an idea.

@ Fraser, I am about at where you were when you did your valuation at 29000 BOE/D... But only on the non core... On the care I'm at 46333 BOE/D...

Anyways, there is still lots of risks to this company and if many others all start selling and flooding the market at the same time with these property (perhaps due to bankers demands) the prices could drastically drop...

But I am still pretty impressed by Penn West's proactivity in all this and if they can sell the non core assets soon enough and lower debt further, I think they have a good chance at survival... However, that also depends on how much money they have been bleeding over the Third Quarter of this year...

Anyways, have a look at the attachment yall.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Anyone know why this one rallied in the last hour today????

Any news comming?


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Wow, over 200 millions for Weyburn!
82 000 BOE...
Sure beats my 50 000 estimate haha...
Im impressed.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

20% surge today...


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Yeah, combined with yesterday, it makes up for a huge upwards move...
I was not expecting it today... I was thinking we would be going into regular small daily pull back again...

What a surprise... I guess some big institutional investors are getting back on the stock ? That's the only explaination I see for it going up so much!

Another sale and we'll be breaking 1 dollar a share...


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

I'm amazed at this stocks movement!!

If management could close the deal on a third sale in the VERY near term, this stock will skyrocket!

Boy am I glad I didn`t sell and take that lost! Feels good to have this one in the green!! Psychologically, it was hard! Nice learning experience for me here.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

another 20% today...nice


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

And another 20% today... Nice!
keep 'em coming...

Im hoping the american share (PWE) breaks 1 dollar tomorrow and we can stop hearing about the de-listing... That would be another reason for the share to rise...


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

market just about to open and my fingers crossed


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Lol... crazy day...

I put in a stop at 1,38 when the inventory count came out...

Got back in at 1,32 thinking it could be going higher... 

We'll have to see is PWE closes above 1 buck... And how it reacts in the coming days...

The open was just insane! hahaha... Imagine the inventory had shown diminishing quantity... This would have been at 1.70 now! Argggg


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

What a joke... 
Was about 1 dollar, pretty much all day!

1 minute away from close, it was at 1,02 and the last 10 seconds, it dropped to 0.9973!! 
lol aw man... :cower:


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

awww allright...

I guess the last quote was 1.02!

GOOD!!

:biggrin:


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

Hahah the euphopria and madness have passed.. the feeding frenzy of emotional investors.. I felt sad when I saw the curve even out..


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

If it could hold today's gains, it would be a GREAT day... Say with a close at 1,45$

I've very tempted to sell at this point as I can see a bit of bearishness on the horizon as the bullish sentiment disapears...

But I'm afraid the company could announce another non-core asset sale at any moment... 

Not sure what to do.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

above 1.50 now.. wow


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## daddybigbucks (Jan 30, 2011)

Wow or someone is sniffing the books?


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

This stock is just insane...

So much momentum either to the highs and lows...

Within 5 weeks, bought 1.05, went to 0.60 and now is at 1.65... 

What a roller coaster!

The only comment I can say is this stock as huge potential! The new management is doing a GREAT job to save the company from a BAD price environment and people were far too agressive with the stockwhen it was down!
These guys are doing a great job and if they could keep it up with some more non-core sales, this will be a home run!


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

I pulled out at 1.65 today leaving my initial capital there.. tomorrow we will see what`s going on .. at least I walk away with a handsome reward tonight


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

I'm hoping it will reach 2.10...

Then I`ll pull half and be left with a free position from there on... All the initial capital safely secured! 


However I`ll see how it goes... As long as the momentum remains, I`ll probably be in... 

I was afraid we were loosing it in the AM, but boy was I wrong!


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

Tomorrow may continue but I'm more concerned about next week.. the weekend cool down period could go either way... although I hear the oil price was up because of Russia's bombing of Syria...so.. that... unfortunately is a good thing for us..


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Yeah... At this point, it's definitely the geopolitic factors that are driving the price of oil... More than fundamentals! That's why it'll be quite important to sell off quickly once the momentum turns... the price of oil could easily go down to 42$ where it was a few weeks ago... I'm thinking the rig count could dictate the momentum for Monday... But for sure any which event over the weekend could set off a shift as well...

You are right about the war with Syria situation... I'm just more on the lookout about Russia bypassing some internationnal rules and pissing off Turkey or Saudi and of setting increasing tentions that could rise the price of crude come Monday... 

Of the oil rig is down, I will definitely hold, but if it's up there will be some thinking to do.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Date Volume

Oct 8, 2015 11,509,262
Oct 7, 2015 10,815,818
Oct 6, 2015 6,707,445
Oct 5, 2015 8,146,288
Oct 2, 2015 5,163,657
Oct 1, 2015 3,458,163
Sep 30, 2015 1,564,481
Sep 29, 2015 2,312,757

Maybe monitor volume?


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

I still need to get another 300% increase to breakeven on this one unfortunately. Well just 3K though but still hurts.

BSR


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

besmartrich said:


> I still need to get another 300% increase to breakeven on this one unfortunately. Well just 3K though but still hurts.
> 
> BSR



lol... yikes, I'd say! I sincerely hope you get it very soon my friend!

Honestly, I don't think 4.92$ is entirely out of the question for this stock ( I could see everyone getting shocked now and disagree)... On my estimate of the liquidation value, it would bring 6.60$... But it will take much better oil prices and further non-core sale


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## besmartrich (Jan 11, 2015)

Value said:


> lol... yikes, I'd say! I sincerely hope you get it very soon my friend!
> 
> Honestly, I don't think 4.92$ is entirely out of the question for this stock ( I could see everyone getting shocked now and disagree)... On my estimate of the liquidation value, it would bring 6.60$... But it will take much better oil prices and further non-core sale


Haha yup although, this stock has a good potential as right minded competent management can really change the game when turnaround becomes successful. Let's see how this turns out


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

Hold on to your knickers boys, (or as we say in French, attachez vos tuques) last day of the week and let`s see what PWT has in store for us today.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Ma tuque est bien attaché avec de la broche. Pas de soucis là.

It was a nice beginning of the trading session... I don't know where the slow down is comming from...

The oil rig is down, so I think I will hold until tuesday.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Also bullish news!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...a62ad0-6eab-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html

House votes to lift 40-year-old US ban on crude oil exports despite White House opposition

I think I will keep holding, however that 3 day weekend is making me worried... Not being about to act Monday and all.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

noobs said:


> Hold on to your knickers boys, (or as we say in French, attachez vos tuques) last day of the week and let`s see what PWT has in store for us today.


Down, like all other oils.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

favelle75 said:


> Down, like all other oils.


yeah my CPG is down too..

The long weekend is going to be very interesting...


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Same here...

Little disapointed it lost, I suppose lots of people don't wanna be holding the positions over the weekend perhaps.

Still I don't understand why WTI is now under 50$, I didn't see the bearish news... I'm thinking gains can continue over on next week... However if it opens in the red, I might sell very quickly.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Wow...

Well this will surely had to tensions... and the price of crude, if it gets confirmed!
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...e-shot-down-airspace-Syria-ISIS-Islamic-State


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Value said:


> Same here...
> 
> Little disapointed it lost, I suppose lots of people don't wanna be holding the positions over the weekend perhaps.
> 
> Still I don't understand why WTI is now under 50$, I didn't see the bearish news... I'm thinking gains can continue over on next week... However if it opens in the red, I might sell very quickly.


It shot up during Asian trading hours...then when we opened, it pared down those gains...ended up nominally higher on the day, but most stocks ended up 0.5-1% down. US open on Monday....we won't be however. Could get interesting.


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## favelle75 (Feb 6, 2013)

Value said:


> Wow...
> 
> Well this will surely had to tensions... and the price of crude, if it gets confirmed!
> http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...e-shot-down-airspace-Syria-ISIS-Islamic-State


Yikes, volatility will ensue no question!


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## blin10 (Jun 27, 2011)

Value said:


> Wow...
> 
> Well this will surely had to tensions... and the price of crude, if it gets confirmed!
> http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...e-shot-down-airspace-Syria-ISIS-Islamic-State


"*One journalist tweeted* that three Turkish planes were responding to "mysterious" lock-ons from Mig-29 jets"

that is a fake story lol


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Figured... If that was for you, it would have been all over the news 

On top of it, the Turkish government (military officials) would have been very stupid to start such issues.

Anyways...

Yikes, what a move down today in crude... Did not see that comming... However, PWE hold up quite nicely... -2,48% I'm curious to see how it will act tomorrow...

Are you guys gonna sell your PWT?? Noobs?

I'm tempted but afraid they would announce another asset sale and would miss on the rally.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

I`m torn.. (by the way I`m a noob so I don`t have much of an expert opinion).. there are reports of positive outlook on oil soon (OPEC) at the same time Nov 2 is Q3 is earnings release...and so far... it`s not looking that good.
I will see how people feel in the morning and decide if I`m gonna sell or not, I bought at 1.17 so I`m still up...


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

noobs said:


> I`m torn.. (by the way I`m a noob so I don`t have much of an expert opinion).. there are reports of positive outlook on oil soon (OPEC) at the same time Nov 2 is Q3 is earnings release...and so far... it`s not looking that good.
> I will see how people feel in the morning and decide if I`m gonna sell or not, I bought at 1.17 so I`m still up...


I'm just as thorn... For sure Q3 will be disastrous, I believe. I'll also wait and see tomorrow... It's a hard decision to make, but could be a good idea to buy again on November 3rd, however, so much can happen before then.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

I will hold... See where the week goes... 
Right now at -5% a little after opening, it does not seem like a massive dump on the horizon.


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

I was afraid of a free fall but it wasn't that painful.. and now 1.64 it's up 5% 
who me? an emotional investor?.. nah....... 

Chances are I'll keep my stock in there .. the potential is there for sure


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Yep, it is pretty decent indeed... The bullish sentiment in these stuck is still here... Even BTE is 4-5% higher today which is quite impressive considering yesterday's huge pull back in crude.



Now, if PWT could just announce more non-core asset sales!

Swan Hills for 400 millions... I'm looking at your direction!


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

So oil is getting slaughtered... But stocks are standing ground... 
What`s your take?


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## noobs (Sep 27, 2015)

I think people are just trying to hold out and so am I ........with a bottle of pepto bismol


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Lol... 

Not sure here... It`s been brutal and so far maintained well... But... where does it go from here?

I ended up selling at 1.40 to lock in some gains...

I`m thinking it might go lower daily for a while... 

I'll try and jump back in when sentiment to crude improve... 

Only think that bothers me is I have no exposure if they sell another asset.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Well... This is history repeating or what?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-as-investors-go-bargain-hunting-2015-11-24

I would have rather the news come out when I first posted this news months ago than now


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...quarterly-loss-of-12-billion/article29129874/

PWT is likely to be in default of covenants within 3 months. If anyone owns this, they're likely mad. $36M of FFO last quarter; $1.9B in debt (debt to cash flow of 13 times). Revenue down 40%; debt due to asset sales only down 10%. The math is inevitable.


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

I use to be a big bull on Pennwest when oil was trading in the 40 to 50 dollar range. I was thinking they were doing all the right moves in order to survive and meanwhile, the market hated the stock! They sold a couple of property and got a huge pop and never really came back down… The feeling towards PWT changed I guess… 

For a while, I`ve been repeating to everyone that this is not a good play anymore… My cue was the Q3 report call, when the company stated the breakeven point was about 42$ WTI… 

I sold back during the pop at 1.40$ and can’t believe it’s still at 1.40$ lol… I agree with you, the math is there and the future is unavoidable…

They have one more card left… Selling core assets or securitizing the debt with it… But at that point, it’s like a game of monopoly when you know you’re going to lose… where go into survival mode for a while just lingering… 
Not somewhere I want to be…


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## Value (Jul 31, 2015)

Yikes ...



Penn West to sell Slave Point asset for $148M
Mar 21 2016, 08:34 ET | About: Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE) | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip

Penn West Energy (NYSEWE) agrees to sell its properties in the Slave Point area of northern Alberta for $148M.PWE says that although Slave Point was a core asset, the sale should lower the company's per barrel operating costs and reduce corporate decline rates.PWE says it has closed or reached definitive agreements or letters of intent to sell some of its non-core assets for ~$80M.



If they start selling core assets for as low as 25 000 per flowing barrel, it's definitely the beggining of the end.


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## OnlyMyOpinion (Sep 1, 2013)

Penn West Sask assets sold to Teine Energy (with backing from CPPIB) for $945 million (16,300 boed in Q1). 
http://www.teine-energy.com/index.php?id=investor&content=news
Teine is privately owned but public-like in their transparency. A vehicle for CPP investments (four of their directors are from CPPIB). So if you sold and/or lost money on Penn West, you can take solace in the fact that you own some of their assets once again in a small way through your CPP contributions.


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## Numbersman61 (Jan 26, 2015)

OnlyMyOpinion said:


> Penn West Sask assets sold to Teine Energy (with backing from CPPIB) for $945 million (16,300 boed in Q1).
> http://www.teine-energy.com/index.php?id=investor&content=news
> Teine is privately owned but public-like in their transparency. A vehicle for CPP investments (four of their directors are from CPPIB). So if you sold and/or lost money on Penn West, you can take solace in the fact that you own some of their assets once again in a small way through your CPP contributions.


I'm just hoping that Teine didn't overpay.


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Post transaction puts them at about 4 times debt to cash flow, which is slightly better than Baytex, if anyone is considering investing or selling. That is still a dangerous level of debt, but a better situation than 10-12 times debt to cash flow which is bankruptcy level.


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