# Ireland is in the tank - when do I go in and for what?



## DavidJD (Sep 27, 2009)

I was annoyed that I missed the last Irish boom having seen it coming for a while. Now that it is in a bust I am wondering what would be a good investment for this economy - an Irish ETF?


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Don't forget Greece.


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## patmanz (Jul 26, 2010)

DavidJD said:


> I was annoyed that I missed the last Irish boom having seen it coming for a while. Now that it is in a bust I am wondering what would be a good investment for this economy - an Irish ETF?


AIB, IRE

their banks have been beaten to the ground


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## Arcaneind (Apr 3, 2009)

*Talk about a fall...*

IRE: from $97 to $2 in four years
AIB: from $62 to $1 in four years
IPM: from $22 to $0.9 in four years

EU and IMF have been asked to step in. Google has the unemployment rate at 14%.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

I'm curious why you folks are looking to invest in Ireland.
What do you see growing there?
It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.

Or is this mostly a short term play, hoping for a dead cat bounce on these stocks once the bailouts are through?


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## Arcaneind (Apr 3, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> I'm curious why you folks are looking to invest in Ireland.
> What do you see growing there?
> It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
> But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.
> ...


The only positive points I see about Ireleand would be that:
- Except for those that hoard money under their beds, people need banks for everyday stuff
- I think it's in a better place than Greece was/is

If I were to invest, it would be in the Bank of Ireland as the government hasn't had to step in yet (maybe like a Ford/GM scenario). Either way, they all have too much bad debt.


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## furgy (Apr 20, 2009)

DavidJD said:


> I was annoyed that I missed the last Irish boom having seen it coming for a while. Now that it is in a bust I am wondering what would be a good investment for this economy?


Leprechauns!!! , those little buggers are loaded , hard to catch tho.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

I would not recommend the Irish banks. They may we be "recapitalized" which is code for "your shares become worthless". Just because they are cheap doesn't mean they can't go to zero, and if you buy at $2.00 a share and it goes to nothing it's still a 100% loss!

On top of that you have currency risk, and with the EUR being beaten up any gains you get face currency headwinds especially vs. the very strong CAN$.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Arcaneind said:


> IRE: from $97 to $2 in four years
> AIB: from $62 to $1 in four years
> IPM: from $22 to $0.9 in four years
> 
> EU and IMF have been asked to step in. Google has the unemployment rate at 14%.




What's IPM?


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## NorthernRaven (Aug 4, 2010)

DEO: as there should be a spike in Guinness sales to ward off the gloom. If they have an ouzo line it is a double-play...


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

NorthernRaven said:


> DEO: as there should be a spike in Guinness sales to ward off the gloom. If they have an ouzo line it is a double-play...


Their stock has spiked in recent weeks... There may be a correlation!





Their stock has spiked in recent weeks... There could be a correlation!


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## heyjude (May 16, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
> But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.


I am from Ireland. Just to clarify a few things:
1. Low corporate taxes induced many companies to establish business in Ireland but those tax rates are set to increase as a condition of the bailout. 
2. "No significant manufacturing"...really? For its size, Ireland has historically had a significant share of big pharma and medical device manufacturing in particular. As for agriculture, that is one of the backbones of the Irish economy. Resources: true, not a strength, but there is offshore oil & gas. 

I have no intention of investing in Irish financial instruments at the present time. Accountability is insufficient and the risk of default is too high. On the other hand, property values have fallen by 50-60% since the peak in 2006. If I had a big chunk of spare cash (which I don't) I might consider investing in a rural cottage to use as a vacation home.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

The debt crisis surfacing in various countries started with the banks giving out bad loans, which suppresses the real estate market creating an economic decline. This cuts into tax revenue forcing higher taxes, lowering economic growth and will eventually force a smaller government (hurray!). There are much better risk/reward investments out there then the banks and real estate of these countries. Imo, it will be at least a couple of decades before these sectors in these countries have another boom.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

For fun (as in gambling) I bought Bank of Ireland at $2.24, and AIB at 1.14. I stress this is not investing, I realize it's gambling but I have a bit of cash to play with. Of course I'm hoping the stocks go up, but if they don't I know I took my chances.


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## JayRoc (Apr 4, 2009)

Are there any Irish equivalents of the companies that make up the ETF XRE? They might be a good play here.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Interesting article from the Globe and Mail on the topic of this thread:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-target-weak-euro-zone-banks/article1810844/

Time to head to the bunker??


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## steve41 (Apr 18, 2009)

> when do I go in and for what?


 Well, you have 'when' and 'what' covered off. I don't see a 'why'.


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## brad (May 22, 2009)

$1600 Gold by 2011 said:


> Imo, it will be at least a couple of decades before these sectors in these countries have another boom.


I was talking with an Irish economist about this last night and he said much the same thing. He figures it'll take a full generation for Ireland to get back on its feet after this one. But he did agree that this might be a good time to buy real estate in Ireland if you're willing to hold it for 15 years or more before selling.


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## Lephturn (Aug 31, 2009)

I'm just dreading when the US realizes it has to actually start paying down it's debt - this PIGS stuff is peanuts compared to what happens when the US starts to seriously cut.

It's funny - they use the IMF to push Greece and Ireland to slash spending and raise taxes to get things under control... but the US just spends like there is no tomorrow, keeps taxes artificially (unsustainably) low, and prints trillions and trillions of dollars. How do they not see the writing on the wall?

With this in mind - you better know how to profit in markets that go down or sideways as well as up. I can't see how the markets will be up 10% a year for the next 20... I just don't see it.


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## el oro (Jun 16, 2009)

Lephturn said:


> With this in mind - you better know how to profit in markets that go down or sideways as well as up. I can't see how the markets will be up 10% a year for the next 20... I just don't see it.


I don't see 20 consecutive years of 10% returns but the next few years are looking good. There is a huge amount of capital in public investments today vs. private. As world capital flows from public to private investments, world stock and commodity prices will increase while currencies and government will not... in general.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

In pre-market this morning, following the S&P cuts rating, the Bank of Ireland plummeted another -25.88%, this on top of yesterday's drop of -23.42%, although sometime after market hours last night, the stock went up to almost $2.

The German finance minister said:

"It is our common currency that's at stake, Germany, Europe's biggest economy, must take responsibility otherwise there will be *untold economic and social consequences* for our country".

What a precipitous fall.


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## NorthernRaven (Aug 4, 2010)

There's a interesting video stream of an Irish talk panel show from Tuesday, with some Irish economists going over the gloomy sums and outlook.


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

Major cutbacks and tax increases coming. Check today's CBC news.


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## larry81 (Nov 22, 2010)

Anyone playing AIB ?

There been three day with +/- 20% swing... this is a major opportunity for someone with ... BALLS OF STEEL !!!


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

The Irish aren't the only ones suffering. With tomorrow being Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. it might be a good time to reflect on the fact that 42 MILLION Americans are using food stamps in order to get by.

This, in the so-called 'Greatest Nation on Earth'. 

The unemployment rate in the U.S. may not drop significantly for many months--even years!!

I can remember when I used to envy Americans and their standard of living.

But now, not so much!!!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

larry81 said:


> Anyone playing AIB ?
> 
> There been three day with +/- 20% swing... this is a major opportunity for someone with ... BALLS OF STEEL !!!


Not AIB, but after IRE's precipitous fall of last week, I jumped in on the 26th at $1.45 as it was pretty certain that the bail-out would go through on Sunday. I'm glad I jumped.


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## plen (Nov 18, 2010)

Are you planning on sticking with them for a while Toronto.gal?

More details on Irish bank stocks in today's Star.


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Given the higher than expected increase today, I sold 70% at the end of the day and kept 30%. With the profit I'll buy more when it drops again!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

The 52 week low/high of IRE = $1.38/$10.77 and today it's trading at $1.84, an increase of over 30% in less than 2 days.

How quickly things turn around in either direction! Other European stocks are bouncing back nicely this week, such as TEF [Telefonica], which closed at $64 yesterday [from a high of $89.62] & currently trading at $67+, so perhaps a good time to buy this one!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...res-rise-bhp-billiton-rio-tinto-may-gain.html


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Whats everyone's views on Ireland nationalising the banks? I think they are up to four now. I recently bought AIB and IRE, both of whom have (just today I think) been announced by the gov't as being nationalised, so I'm curious how this will affect things.


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## heyjude (May 16, 2009)

Like GM, the government will get them sorted out to the extent that they are marketable and will sell them off in a year or two. Who knows, we might find Canadian banks buying them out!


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## Toronto.gal (Jan 8, 2010)

Addy said:


> Whats everyone's views on Ireland nationalising the banks? I think they are up to four now. I recently bought AIB and IRE, both of whom have (just today I think) been announced by the gov't as being nationalised, so I'm curious how this will affect things.


Unless I missed something, only AIB was nationalized last week, not IRE. I have shares in the latter, but sold most of them last month, however, I'll hold on to the balance of shares as I financed them with profit. I suppose it is quite possible that the last bank standing from the big 4, that is, IRE, could also fall under government control. 

AIB's stocks have been delisted from European markets, but so far, the ADR's have not been affected, though probably it will become an OTC stock.

I hope you did not make a large investment.

http://www.independent.ie/business/...-for-shareholders-and-depositors-2473181.html


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## the-royal-mail (Dec 11, 2009)

This is really bad. Looks like capitalism has an extreme flaw. If it fails, it brings down all of our society!

I wish we could count on true government controls to prevent this sort of thing from ever reoccuring, but I just don't have that confidence. So we haven't seen the last of this, yet another step towards elimination of the middle class and making the masses poor. We can't keep paying for all of this nonsense.

Really sad.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Toronto.gal said:


> I hope you did not make a large investment.


I bought with my gambling-money as I figured it would probably tank.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

Irish Bank stock I purchased is hopping up and down like a grasshopper lately! Should be interesting to see how it does in a few years. Hopefully not tank before then!


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