# Dollarama (DOL.TO)



## sam (Mar 16, 2012)

DOL is up 7% today . this is crazy lol


They will increase dividend 22 per cent to 11 cents per share from nine cents.


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## Andre112 (Apr 27, 2011)

My coworker told me about how he likes this dollar store that opened nearby. 
I went to check it out after a few months and I liked it. 
Unfortunately, I couldn't make up my mind about buying their stock at that time.


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## dave2012 (Feb 17, 2012)

I was looking at this one too for the last few weeks. DTLR as well. Very consistent stocks! Up 7.5% now. Missed that one.


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## ddkay (Nov 20, 2010)

What's DTLR?


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## dave2012 (Feb 17, 2012)

ddkay said:


> What's DTLR?


Oops... meant DLTR (Dollar Tree)


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## Mall Guy (Sep 14, 2011)

Can't deny the results, and never pulled the trigger on either Dollarama or Dollar Tree . . . or Tim Horton's for that matter. Will suggest that Dollarama and Dollar Tree, both very well financed, having chased out or at least marginalized smaller competition, are now competing for the same AAA real estate, and what they are willing to pay in rent is increasing as they secure market share (buy a REIT !). Dollarama broke their fixed $1 model very successfully . . . and then there's is the dollar store genius (Larry Rossy) . . sorry I missed it . . . sometimes I wonder why I just can't believe !!!


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

been downgraded since $30.. keeps proving the pundits wrong


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

riseofamillionaire said:


> been downgraded since $30.. keeps proving the pundits wrong


now they all upgrade lol... oh bay street, so predictable


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## xsrnvld (Apr 14, 2012)

I had 2k and bought 23k more days before the big jump. Even it has retreated a little I will hold it for a long time. It's solid.


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## riseofamillionaire (Feb 23, 2012)

xsrnvld said:


> I had 2k and bought 23k more days before the big jump. Even it has retreated a little I will hold it for a long time. It's solid.


veryyy noice


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## kwh (Apr 11, 2013)

*Dol.to*

I'd be interested to see what people here think about Dollarama at this time. I'm looking at adding it as a prospect for a sector that could do reasonably well in a downturn. I know though that it has had a run up in the last several years. What do people think of it now?


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## skiwest (Oct 24, 2011)

I just closed out a short position for a small profit. It is really expensive from a PE point of view.


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## Time4earlyretirement (Feb 21, 2014)

Is it too late to get in on this?


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## pastorash (Feb 3, 2014)

I just laughed as I read the first page of this thread and the commentary seemed pretty current... then realized it was from 2012.


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## Lena100 (Mar 16, 2014)

I would like to hear people's opinion on the possibility of opening a small position at the this price. Thanks


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## Crusher (Sep 15, 2013)

I think it's a good idea. It's a beautiful stock and I've been wanting to hold it for a long time. Unfortunately never pulled the trigger for various reasons. Earnings come out on Thursday morning. Will re-evaluate then and strongly consider buying for the long term. I like how recession proof it seems to be and how the margins have been increasing.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Thought about buying at $60 last month. Got angry that it just kept rising, so hunkered down and bought a few shares at $65 last week. Glad I did!

Profits up 29% and dividend raised to 9c/quarter (as expected). The dividend has a hell of a long way to grow, at only 17% payout ratio. As this increases and yields rise (assuming the price stops roaring up at some point) dividend investors will come pouring in to prop the stock up as growth investors start to pull out.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

peterk said:


> Thought about buying at $60 last month. Got angry that it just kept rising, so hunkered down and bought a few shares at $65 last week. Glad I did!
> 
> Profits up 29% and dividend raised to 9c/quarter (as expected). The dividend has a hell of a long way to grow, at only 17% payout ratio. As this increases and yields rise (assuming the price stops roaring up at some point) dividend investors will come pouring in to prop the stock up as growth investors start to pull out.


unlikely to happen anytime soon as they have an ambitious growth plan ... i got in when they split ... i am a little worried about over concentration of stores (in victoria they have them relatively close to each other) but i like their business model ... a good defensive stock i think


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## cnnx (Mar 26, 2015)

*dollaram drop price today*

anyone have any insight in what could have cause dollarama do dip in the red today after weeks of constant positive gains?


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## KaeJS (Sep 28, 2010)

This could just be a guess... but I'd say the reason for the dip is due to "weeks of constant positive gains".

But this is just a guess, of course.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Can this thing just keep going up? $91 is making me woozy. They say top end price point may have to increase from $3 to $4 due to the exchange rate increasing costs. Thinking of selling soon but I do I'd probably just dump the proceeds into more money losing oil stocks. :stupid: So I might resist.


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## 1980z28 (Mar 4, 2010)

If you own,pick where you feel ok to buy more or sell

This company will soon be like tim hortons,so I would buy on dips,leverage if you can

Personally I love to leverage below prime


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

this is a great little business, i wish i had bought more but am afraid to since it just keeps piling on


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## SlowRhythm (Oct 12, 2015)

*Dollarama's current prospects*

I, too, own DOL. Their most recent quarterly results were strong, same store sales increased, new stores added pretty much in line with their growth plan. For the next two-three years, I don't see them increasing dividends as they are piling money into opening new stores. Their biggest problem right seems to be weaker Canadian dollar - they have a hedging program in place which takes care of the next one or two quarters, after which they will need to pass the price increase onto the customer. 

And so, I'm currently holding onto my shares and have recently added to my position. Simple business, great execution, room for some more expansion in terms of opening new stores (maybe another 200 more, which translates to three-four years worth of growth). 

Looking forward to the December quarterly results. Solid stock with good growth prospect, in my mind.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

SlowRhythm said:


> I, too, own DOL. Their most recent quarterly results were strong, same store sales increased, new stores added pretty much in line with their growth plan. For the next two-three years, I don't see them increasing dividends as they are piling money into opening new stores. Their biggest problem right seems to be weaker Canadian dollar - they have a hedging program in place which takes care of the next one or two quarters, after which they will need to pass the price increase onto the customer.
> 
> And so, I'm currently holding onto my shares and have recently added to my position. Simple business, great execution, room for some more expansion in terms of opening new stores (maybe another 200 more, which translates to three-four years worth of growth).
> 
> Looking forward to the December quarterly results. Solid stock with good growth prospect, in my mind.


i like that they can make money with small stores which makes real estate easier to find, i worry that they are going to oversaturate

in victoria we have stores just a mile away from each but perhaps this is part of their appeal, that they are close to their customers


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

Bulls & Bears: Dollarama 

https://www.tdwealthvideos.com/index.php?portal=1&playlist=1&video=636&language=english


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

scorpion_ca said:


> Bulls & Bears: Dollarama
> 
> https://www.tdwealthvideos.com/index.php?portal=1&playlist=1&video=636&language=english


i buy the bull case

wal-mart needs bigger stores, dollarama can operate in smaller stores, if it runs itself well it could replace walmart as the low cost brand ... they have a great team ... individual mom and pop stores are not a serious threat since people like brands they can count on and experiences they are familiar with ... as costs go up prices will go up but it will still retain the "dollarama" name which will imply value

the bear case involves currency but i think that is manageable, wage growth in china is manageable as well, there are lots of low cost sources of goods out there

the key is the management team, if they continue to execute, i think it has a good future, if it pulls back, i might add more, as it matures i think they will start to grow their dividend

on balance the bull case wins for me ... they need to maintain those clean well run stores and it will do ok i think


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Today DOL fell nearly 7% on a very high volume day, 2.6 million shares vs the average of 500K shares daily (that's 5x the usual volume). This also happened while the stock fell below its 200 day moving average, a commonly watched price measure.

I'm long DOL but think this looks like a bearish move. It's giving me the feeling that DOL may have finally peaked in the $150 - $170 range.

I haven't looked at this very seriously, just observing today's move. I still hold DOL.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> Today DOL fell nearly 7% on a very high volume day, 2.6 million shares vs the average of 500K shares daily (that's 5x the usual volume). This also happened while the stock fell below its 200 day moving average, a commonly watched price measure.
> 
> I'm long DOL but think this looks like a bearish move. It's giving me the feeling that DOL may have finally peaked in the $150 - $170 range.
> 
> I haven't looked at this very seriously, just observing today's move. I still hold DOL.


Yeah, the market reacted to their latest report where they missed the estimates. They still made money, just not as much as the analysis hoped for. Sales rose 2.6 per cent in the first quarter while they were expecting a 4.7 per cent rise. It's such a huge growth story, everyone expects perfection. I'm long too, but likewise feel pressure when I don't see perfection every quarter. It's a well run company that I plan to hold onto. I'll be interested to see what happens after the 3:1 split this month. I'd rather see a $50 share than a $150 share just for the fact that the casual investor makes the assumption that it's too expensive a stock to buy.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

There is some speculation they will have to raise prices due to tariffs Trump will impose on imports.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

AltaRed said:


> There is some speculation they will have to raise prices due to tariffs Trump will impose on imports.


Yeah, for sure, although as Dollarama says tariffs will affect _all_ retailers in Canada. Some retailers are stuck if their products come from USA and nowhere else, but if you're selling a lot of Asian junk like Dollarama they have lots of other choices. Dollarama says, _“So if I’m buying plastic-moulded items I have options all around the world for them. If I’m buying a Mars bar or a Hershey bar made in Pennsylvania, I don’t really have too many options.”_.

I see a lot of what was lost on the market yesterday has been gained back today, but time will tell.

It's funny how my mind treats different stocks, and I suppose it shouldn't. When I own a growth stock like Dollarama where I have a low cost base and a huge capital appreciation on the books, there's a tendency to want to sell to crystallize those gains, compared to a stock like Enbridge that hovers around my book, but pays a large dividend. 

Anyway, most of the useless analysts still show Dollarama as a buy.

Alta, do you own Dollarama?

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

No and have never seriously looked at it. I generally don't like retail stocks.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

AltaRed said:


> No and have never seriously looked at it. I generally don't like retail stocks.


Yeah, I get it, but I'm a balanced sector guy and both DOL and CTC-A have been so very good to me.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Closest I come to retail is ATD.b. I recognize CTC has been a winner but don't understand why. I feel like I am crawling with dirt when I walk into any of their stores. Course I guess it is their other brands that generate most of the profits.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I own some in my Lowdiv portfolio. 

Tomorrow, DOL will split 3:1, so the share price will come down to around $51 a share. Splits don't change anything other than trading convenience, though.


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## Dilbert (Nov 20, 2016)

I’m not much interested in Dollarama or other retail equities either. Although I do think the Dollarama business model was/is brilliant.
I do have a REIT (PLZ) that captures rent from them, Loblaw and Shoppers Drugmart and other large retailers.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Unfortunately, DOL is looking increasingly bearish. It's now fallen below its 200 day moving average for the first time since 2016, so the two year rally might have ended. Currently around $47, if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably heading lower this year (but who knows). I still hold some.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> Unfortunately, DOL is looking increasingly bearish. It's now fallen below its 200 day moving average for the first time since 2016, so the two year rally might have ended. Currently around $47, if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably heading lower this year (but who knows). I still hold some.


Who knows indeed.

I would say that it's an understatement that the next couple quarterly reports will be important.

ltr


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

DOL has been very good to me, though i have been thinking of reducing ... i suspect that this is related to worries about china ...


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## Scalpini (Jul 27, 2018)

Simply put, I think the Dollar Store and 'near dollar' store plays are going to be increasingly attractive in the short and long term.

From the working poor to the middle class and beyond, a LOT of people are having a tough time (or have had a tough time) and if anyone walks into almost ANY dollar store it's really apparent that business has 'picked up'. I go into a few of them on a semi-regular basis to purchase specific imported snack items that I just can't seem to find anywhere else, along with some cheap craft stuff for my kids to mess around with and I honestly cannot believe how busy those places have become.

As a person who pays attention to detail, I used to notice that the bulk of the persons browsing the aisles likely could only afford 'dollar store items' and thus, the very reason why they were there and although those same people are still shopping there, the dynamic of the store has definitely changed. I notice people from all walks of life now and that's when I figured out that it wasn't 'just' that people were hurting in the pocketbook, but it was something else. It appears that the dollar stores have been doing their homework and from what I can tell, they have been bringing in items that are appealing and in many cases necessary to these 'new people' that are shopping at these locations and as a result, 'repeat business' is very good indeed. I can't help but wonder how many times I've caught myself saying, "man that seems expensive, I'll just pick one up next time I drive by the dollar store".

Cheers,


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## doctrine (Sep 30, 2011)

Dollarama has been a high growth company that trades at a premium valuation. At a P/E of around 30, the stock has already priced in their future Canadian expansion, as well as sales and margin expansion. If any of that doesn't work out, the stock could take a hit. I'm not sure what the "next" step is, once they hit ~1700-1800 Canadian stores.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

last time i was in they were selling kit-kat bars for 50 cents less than out main grocer, that got my attention ... the stores are clean, easy to navigate and well located and they recently started taking credit cards

in victoria we have a couple that are fairly close to each other so i think the issue of too many outlets isn't serious, the size of the stores should give them flexibility in finding locations that other similar stores can't use

the kinds of stuff they sell are getting expensive (inflation just announced at 3% today) and there is a cohort that will certainly make a point of going to stores that they know offer good values

i will stick around a while longer even though i have seen a pullback on my shares


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

why the big drop in price today...??


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> why the big drop in price today...??


Second quarter results released and they didn't meet analysts expectations.

ltr


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

ahhh...
still, pretty good numbers...?


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> ahhh...
> still, pretty good numbers...?


Yep.

ltr


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Ouch. Sharp drops like that are never a good sign.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Ouch. Sharp drops like that are never a good sign.


Why not? That should be expected as the norm when a momentum stock is priced for perfection. It is a healthy adjustment to unreasonable expectations.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

AltaRed said:


> Why not? That should be expected as the norm when a momentum stock is priced for perfection. It is a healthy adjustment to unreasonable expectations.


yeah, why james ? ... DOL has been running hot for a long time and they are vulnerable to tariffs on many fronts ... the business still looks solid to me


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I think the sharp drop after a year of bad stock performance is a bad sign because it's a reflection of a generally bearish outlook on the stock. It shows investors and institutions lined up, already leaning towards dumping the stock, executing on their bearish views once it's confirmed -- causing that 18% single day drop.

DOL had a huge multi-year run, and in that phase the investors were bullish, leaning towards buying all the time. It's now possible the business environment and psychology has shifted 180. We might now be in a phase where investors _are generally bearish and leaning towards selling all the time_. If that's true, it could mean years of poor stock performance.

Fundamentals are one thing, investor mood and psychology is another. Both factor into the performance we see. I'm concerned that the investors and institutions are in a "selling mood" when it comes to DOL.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

buying opp here....?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

jargey3000 said:


> buying opp here....?


I'm inclined to say no. Instead, I think it's time to earmark the stock for disposal, wait for the next rally to happen, and then dump into the strength. I'm sticking with my earlier forecast from the summer:



james4beach said:


> Unfortunately, DOL is looking increasingly bearish. It's now fallen below its 200 day moving average for the first time since 2016, so the two year rally might have ended. Currently around $47, if I had to guess, I'd say it's probably heading lower this year (but who knows). I still hold some.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> I'm inclined to say no. Instead, I think it's time to earmark the stock for disposal, wait for the next rally to happen, and then dump into the strength. I'm sticking with my earlier forecast from the summer:


I've held Dollarama for quite some time. It's return since 2010 is in the 1200% range and it's always been priced for perfection. I have certainly noticed that the expectations from analysts for a growth stock such as this is always at the high end. I feel the price ramped up a bit too much at the end of last year and the start of this year. A pull back should have been expected.

It's a well run company, and I'm always amused when I read articles regarding the analysts expectations. Today I read from Globe and Mail: _"Despite the increased profit, the *43 cents per share* of earnings was below the analyst estimate of *44 cents per share* for the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.
Additionally, sales grew to $868.5 million, up from about $812.5 million in the same quarter last year, but were about two per cent below the analyst estimate of $887.6 million._.

Huh, that doesn't sound like a quarterly report from a company that signals catastrophe, or as James suggests, a stock where it's _"time to earmark the stock for disposal, wait for the next rally to happen, and then dump into the strength"._. Really? So now you're a trader instead of a buy and hold?

I might use the pullback as a time to earmark an entry point, but I could be wrong, since I'm a long term buy and hold investor of high quality stocks. I have never been any good at trading.

ltr


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> I think the sharp drop after a year of bad stock performance is a bad sign because it's a reflection of a generally bearish outlook on the stock. It shows investors and institutions lined up, already leaning towards dumping the stock, executing on their bearish views once it's confirmed -- causing that 18% single day drop.
> 
> DOL had a huge multi-year run, and in that phase the investors were bullish, leaning towards buying all the time. It's now possible the business environment and psychology has shifted 180. *We might now be in a phase where investors are generally bearish and leaning towards selling all the time. If that's true, it could mean years of poor stock performance.
> *
> Fundamentals are one thing, investor mood and psychology is another. Both factor into the performance we see. *I'm concerned that the investors and institutions are in a "selling mood" when it comes to DOL.*


first, yeah sure, they were in a selling mood today, that's unarguable but this is a stock that has has a great run and though my gains have been pared i am still way up

referring to your argument in bold above, you are simply guessing here james, trying to predict the future, you maybe right and you may be wrong

but it seems to me a much more reliable way to decide whether to own a stock is by asking whether or not their business is sound and competitive

they are facing issues with minimum wage and with tariffs and investors have perhaps cooled as a result

but they still have a great product, clean, well run, well located stores that offer needed products at competitive prices and they have a highly loyal regular customer base, they are the standout in their field of dollar stores in canada

your notions strike me as highly abstract when you have a much simpler way to decide whether to buy or sell and that is the prospect of the product itself


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## Speculator (May 9, 2018)

fatcat said:


> but it seems to me a much more reliable way to decide whether to own a stock is by asking whether or not their business is sound and competitive
> they are facing issues with minimum wage and with tariffs and investors have perhaps cooled as a result but they still have a great product, clean, well run, well located stores that offer needed products at competitive prices and they have a highly loyal regular customer base, they are the standout in their field of dollar stores in canada
> your notions strike me as highly abstract when you have a much simpler way to decide whether to buy or sell and that is the prospect of the product itself


BOOM! I also bought ATD.B, QSR and TOY for those exact same reasons. I buy companies and do not invest in the stock market. NO ETFs and NO Mutual Funds. Too many stocks and too many bad companies. I am looking to add more to my DOL holdings when the bleeding stops. Just me.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Though I appreciate the 'investing on fundamentals' ideal, I'd say that's really idealistic. The stock market does not move on fundamentals except on perhaps 10+ year time frames. When we're talking about a few years time horizon, stock prices are more influenced by investor psychology/mood than corporate fundamentals (IMO).

Consider for example how bad "value investing" has done in the last 10 years, even for the professionals. Even if you correctly analyze a company and find good value, on fundamentals, it doesn't mean you're going to see good stock performance.


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## 30seconds (Jan 11, 2014)

james4beach said:


> Though I appreciate the 'investing on fundamentals' ideal, I'd say that's really idealistic. The stock market does not move on fundamentals except on perhaps 10+ year time frames. When we're talking about a few years time horizon, stock prices are more influenced by investor psychology/mood than corporate fundamentals (IMO).
> .


Interesting I always thought you were closer to fundamentals then investor psychology. Do you think the 5 pack traders closer to fundamentals or mood.

Also aren't you not invested in weed or to much tech?


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

30seconds said:


> Interesting I always thought you were closer to fundamentals then investor psychology. Do you think the 5 pack traders closer to fundamentals or mood.


It mostly replicates XIU, so it's very similar to index investing... which isn't value investing, or based on fundamentals.



> Also aren't you not invested in weed or to much tech?


I keep volatile sectors like these very low.


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## fatcat (Nov 11, 2009)

james4beach said:


> Though I appreciate the 'investing on fundamentals' ideal, I'd say that's really idealistic. The stock market does not move on fundamentals except on perhaps 10+ year time frames. *When we're talking about a few years time horizon, stock prices are more influenced by investor psychology/mood than corporate fundamentals* (IMO).
> 
> Consider for example how bad "value investing" has done in the last 10 years, even for the professionals. *Even if you correctly analyze a company and find good value, on fundamentals, it doesn't mean you're going to see good stock performance.*


but you are making your argument based on the ability to back test

stock prices may well be influenced by investor psychology and finding a good company on "fundamentals" certainly doesn't mean you will get good performance but you only know this by looking backward and in retrospect and we can't do that

you can't backtest the future, the future is flat and anything is possible and we are compelled to invest in the future and only the future

with respect, you are throwing in your lot with the cnbc/bnn talking heads, the analysts and the newsletter writers, in other words the entire churning investment industry that makes its money off of investors, not companies

they play this game of constantly telling us that we need to anticipate this or that movement in the market, this or that cycle of investor sentiment and this keeps us investing re-investing, buying and selling in the belief that we can beat the market, but we can't

a better way is to buy companies for their superior products and services and stick with them until proven wrong ... and then sell, walk away and never look back

DOL has not been proven wrong, it is just out of favour with the soak-the-investor-investment-cabal, its still a good company ... it may not be the right company for you but it still is for me


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

The long term growth expectations are claimed to be 13%, while the p/e is around 25, giving a PEG over 2, and some are unloading it at high volume. Doesn't look good. i would think that future Growth expectations would need to be double what they are to sustain this stock price.

It looks like what the market is saying is 'at this p/e level earnings better come in a lot higher than expectations or we're out of here.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

This is not good. DOL is down very sharply today around 7%, on a day when all stocks are generally up.

I stick with my earlier analysis on the stock... negative outlook. I didn't sell any shares as I only have 20 shares, inconsequential


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## P_I (Dec 2, 2011)

james4beach said:


> This is not good. DOL is down very sharply today around 7%, on a day when all stocks are generally up.


Possibly due to Dollarama’s stock falls as short seller Spruce Point takes aim - BNN Bloomberg


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

P_I said:


> Possibly due to Dollarama’s stock falls as short seller Spruce Point takes aim - BNN Bloomberg


Yep, Spruce Point Capital, a firm that focuses on short-selling, writes a report that attacks a stock, which forces the price down, and Spruce Point Capital benefits. Anyone see a problem with that... hehe

ltr


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

like_to_retire said:


> Yep, Spruce Point Capital, a firm that focuses on short-selling, writes a report that attacks a stock, which forces the price down, and Spruce Point Capital benefits. Anyone see a problem with that... hehe


I don't see any problem at all. It's price discovery, the firm does some analysis and tells you what they think.

I don't recall any of you complaining while analysts had over-optimistic research and talked the price up. Why is it only a problem if someone has pessimistic research and talks the price down?

Heck, they're doing you a favour! Direct your complaint to the shills who pumped DOL to the highs that you bought at


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

james4beach said:


> I don't see any problem at all. It's price discovery, the firm does some analysis and tells you what they think.


Mmm, well, I usually rely on companies like Morningstar and its Quantitative ratings to evaluate companies, rather than a company that directly benefits when it issues a negative report. If you find no problems with companies like that - more power to you.

I bought DOL long ago, so it would have to get pretty bad to skirt my cost base, but I do dislike seeing the lemmings move and play right into the short sellers hands.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

It is a problem when it is done with unadulterated ulterior motives. The market needs a better model than a world of 'conflicted' analysts cheer leading and 'short sellers' most likely making absurdly false statements for excessive greed.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

They all have ulterior motives AltaRed. These professional analysts who continually pump stocks have serious conflicts of interest, in fact much more so than an independent firm that might be short selling a stock. The real blame should be directed at these analysts you see on TV, newspaper etc -- they are highly biased. And watching these people for years, I've seen that they constantly make ridiculously bullish statements.

In contrast, the independent firms that do short selling are being much more transparent and straightforward. They are saying: "we think this stock is worth much less, and we're shorting the stock". They don't have the same hidden conflicts of interest and hidden linkages (as underwriters etc) behind the scenes, as mainstream analysts do.

Frankly, people just don't like short sellers because everyone tends to be bullish biased in general, and don't like it when their investments decline. Short sellers often become scapegoats, and it's a lot easier to blame them, as opposed to the stream of ultra bullish analysts, shills and pumpers who talk up stocks for years and induce people to pay too much for them.


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

I don't think either side is worse (or better) than the other.


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## SixesAndSevens (Dec 4, 2009)

longs would do well to take Spruce Point seriously...they nailed the Maxar short to perfection....what an massive return for them in just a few short weeks....


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

SixesAndSevens said:


> longs would do well to take Spruce Point seriously...they nailed the Maxar short to perfection....what an massive return for them in just a few short weeks....


FWIW, I don't disagree as I think a 40% drop from peak may actually be on the low end. It is the way 'short sellers' engage that I find reprehensive.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

P_I said:


> Possibly due to Dollarama’s stock falls as short seller Spruce Point takes aim


Yeah, worked for a day, and maybe they made their short, but Mr. Market called their bluff today. 

We'll see what happens. I think their next few quarters will be important for sure.

Still, it's up 919% since 2010, so a few percent here or there isn't that big a deal, but shorters will continue to attack a well run business.

I see Morningstar quants assign a value of $42.55 to DOL today. They have no dog in the fight.

View attachment 19106


ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

like_to_retire said:


> I see Morningstar quants assign a value of $42.55 to DOL today. They have no dog in the fight.
> ltr


No, but they project like any analyst, not necessarily seeing a slowdown of growth or margins. All momentum stories reach a natural maturity - just a matter of when. FWIW, I neither own, nor am interested in, DOL so I have no dog in the fight either.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

AltaRed said:


> No, but they project like any analyst, not necessarily seeing a slowdown of growth or margins. All momentum stories reach a natural maturity - just a matter of when. FWIW, I neither own, nor am interested in, DOL so I have no dog in the fight either.


Huh, I always found Morningstar to be fairly accurate and brutally honest sometimes. A lot of people seem to rely on their supposedly unbiased evaluations, but I ain't no expert for sure, so maybe you're right and I shouldn't listen to them.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

like_to_retire said:


> Huh, I always found Morningstar to be fairly accurate and brutally honest sometimes. A lot of people seem to rely on their supposedly unbiased evaluations, but I ain't no expert for sure, so maybe you're right and I shouldn't listen to them.
> 
> ltr


They have no skin in the game so are not biased and so say how they see it. Indeed a plus compared to the cheer leaders, but that doesn't mean to say they do a lot of competitive research in their forward analyses. Without knowing their specific set of assumptions, we are still left to make judgement. They are one reference point.

Added: Lest it sound otherwise, I am not beating on them. I use Morningstar a lot for many things.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

like_to_retire said:


> I think their next few quarters will be important for sure.
> 
> Still, it's up 919% since 2010, so a few percent here or there isn't that big a deal, but shorters will continue to attack a well run business.
> 
> ...


Well, DOL just reported their latest quarter.

The company's recent performance was reported as stable and revealed it earned $133.5 million in its latest quarter, up from $130.1 million a year ago. Sales for the quarter ended Oct. 28 totalled $864.3 million.
That profit amounted to 41 cents per diluted share, up from 38 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Analysts expected a profit of 42 cents per share for the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.

But, the market wasn't satisfied with that and the price dropped 12% today. Amazing.

The Morningstar quants give it 4 stars and assign a fair value of $43.01 to DOL today compared to market of approximately $33.30. 

Still scratching my head.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

Differences of opinion on forward growth. Analysts are often slow to back peddle, i.e. too much rear view mirror looking. Today's price doesn't look out of place with slower growth - still with a reasonable P/E of about 20.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

AltaRed said:


> Differences of opinion on forward growth. Analysts are often slow to back peddle, i.e. too much rear view mirror looking. Today's price doesn't look out of place with slower growth - still with a reasonable P/E of about 20.


Interesting that Morningstar has raised its outlook with a higher value now than last quarter, so I guess they aren't very reliable. 

Hard to know where to get good information.

ltr


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## AltaRed (Jun 8, 2009)

They are all just analytical guesses. If they were really quite accurate, they wouldn't still be working as analysts.


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## scorpion_ca (Nov 3, 2014)

I stopped shopping from Dollarama long time ago. Their prices are higher than the other big box stores if you buy products on sale/clearance.


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## Ponderling (Mar 1, 2013)

we own, along with grocers as a shtf thing.
recessions and this kind of co, provide not debt leveraged will do quite well. 

Stock has not shone for the past year or more, but we held on. Now the price has recently bumped, and I now have exposure to latin america dollar stores included.


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## newfoundlander61 (Feb 6, 2011)

My wife was telling me today that a friend of hers that works in our local Dollarama here in Kingston have seen a total of *4000 less* people shopping each day since COVID-19. There usual daily amount was a steady 5000 people. The opposite has happened compared to what they thought would happen. Just sharing this with anyone that may be interested.


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

Sold it all last week for a good price, and bought MFC, TD, etc. for discount prices. DOL did its job perfectly - holding up during a recession - it was time to cash in.


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## like_to_retire (Oct 9, 2016)

peterk said:


> Sold it all last week for a good price, and bought MFC, TD, etc. for discount prices. DOL did its job perfectly - holding up during a recession - it was time to cash in.


I've been long DOL for many years. Excellent management. Picked up more a week or so ago when it dipped to $35. Maybe I bought your shares.

ltr


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## peterk (May 16, 2010)

like_to_retire said:


> I've been long DOL for many years. Excellent management. Picked up more a week or so ago when it dipped to $35. Maybe I bought your shares.
> 
> ltr


Oh I'd definitely be interested in getting back in someday. Perhaps when the overall market is up 50% and DOL is up 20%.


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