# Facebook (FB)



## Causalien

Supposed IPO is Wednesday, I decided to start this thread because, for some reason, no one is talking about it on this forum.

Let's start off with some IPO information. Such as its pre IPO revenue and net income as well as amount of shares in total vs the amount that's going to be floated when it IPO. Also, who are the underwriters and how much they get to keep.

Lastly, I'd like to know about the quiet period and the lock up period for IPO participants. Haven't been able to find any information myself.

*edit---------------------------------------------------------------------------

What I've found so far:

To trade on NYSE. Current bid in private capital market: $36 for 5000 shares.

Finances from 2011 Q1 to 2011 Q3

Assets: $5.6 billion
Cash/cash equivalents: $3.5 billion
Debt: $0
Shareholder equity: $4.5 billion

Operating cashflow: $1 billion
Revenue: $2.5 billion
Operating income: $1.2 billion
Net income: $714 million

Ownership: 
Employees 30% 
Mark Zuckerberg 24% 
Digital Sky Technologies 10% 
Accel Partners 8% (had 10% but sold 2%) 
Dustin Moskowitz 6% 
Eduardo Saverin 5% 
Sean Parker 4% 
Goldman Sachs clients 3%
Microsoft 1.3%
Peter Thiel and/or Clarium Capital 3%
Greylock Partners 1.4%
Meritech Capital Partners 1.6%
Chris Hughes 1 %
Li Ka-shing .75%
Interpublic Group .50%
Goldman Sachs .8%

*update=================================

IPO of 5 billion (shares tendered unknown, at $35 it should be 142 million shares. Implied valuation in private market for the whole company is $80 billion

Morgan Stanley lead underwriter
GS, BAC, JPM, Barclays rounding up the rest.


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## gibor365

Also was surprised that no thread about FB. imho it's much more significant IPO than Groupon, LNKD or YNDX...
Are planning to trade?

As far as i remember with LNKD, TDW and CM were allowed to place trade about 30-40 min later that it was possible at most of US brokerages.... I was following it on stockstobuy.org forum


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## andrewf

With an implied value of $80 billion - $100 billion, it means we're looking at something like a P/E of 53 - 66. Better than Amazon, but I'd like to see a plausible plan for how they expect this thing to cash flow >$10 billion/year.


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## Toronto.gal

gibor said:


> 1. imho it's much more significant IPO than Groupon, LNKD or YNDX...
> 2. Are planning to trade?
> 3. with LNKD, TDW and CM were allowed to place trade about 30-40 min later


1. No question. 
2. What a question. 
3. For obvious reasons, all brokers are tight-lipped at the moment; you won't find out until the actual day.

Good luck to all those interested!


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## rd_aaron

Speculation is that they will file for their IPO after the close of markets on Wednesday. I've never done anything with an IPO before, so I'm not sure of the circumstances. It sounds like it won't start trading on a stock exchange until April or May if they do indeed file this week.

Some questions:
1) Will we know the exact day they start trading ahead of time?
2) What's the best way to buy? Put in an order before the market opens and hope it gets filled?


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## Jungle

[email protected] billion valuation. p/e 60xearnings.


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## gibor365

rd_aaron said:


> 2) What's the best way to buy? Put in an order before the market opens and hope it gets filled?


This is the point that you won't be able to place trade before 

T.gal , I didn't formulate my point correctly  
On LNKD IPO day, guys in US were able to place trade about 10 am, I tried on TDW/CM platform about 20-30 min after US guys bought -> and still I was getting error that ticker is not recognized... Probably you can call in and place your order, however, I couldn't do it from the work.


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## Mockingbird

rd_aaron said:


> Some questions:
> 1) Will we know the exact day they start trading ahead of time?
> 2) What's the best way to buy? Put in an order before the market opens and hope it gets filled?


1) Yes - days before
2) Best way? Hit jackpot and get some pre-IPO shares. . If desperate, then try pre-IPO auction sites (must be an accredited investor). Or wait till the actual trading date and buy your shares thru your broker. Depending on which exchange it will be listed, the speed of execution may vary. Regardless, just don't use the market order at the open.

MB


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## Toronto.gal

Mockingbird said:


> 1) Yes - days before


But not necessarily exact time.


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## slacker

Mark and facebook employees deserves your generous money. It's time to cash out after so many years.

What's a reasonable P/E ratio for facebook? 50? 100 ? or over 9000?


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## jcgd

I read, so no guarantees, that Zuckerburg doesn't really want to go public, but his hand is being forced.


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## FrugalTrader

I've recently read that their net income is closer to $1.5B.


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## gibor365

slacker said:


> Mark and facebook employees deserves your generous money. It's time to cash out after so many years.
> 
> What's a reasonable P/E ratio for facebook? 50? 100 ? or over 9000?


Does it really matters?!
LNKD has P/E 1,513.7 and not doing extremely bad 
YNDX has 40 and almost on 52 weeks low


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## humble_pie

mockingbird won't the shares trade in the when-issued market ?


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## doctrine

Pass.


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## andrewf

gibor said:


> Does it really matters?!
> LNKD has P/E 1,513.7 and not doing extremely bad
> YNDX has 40 and almost on 52 weeks low


That's some late '90s dot com bubble thinking right there.


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## andrewf

FrugalTrader said:


> I've recently read that their net income is closer to $1.5B.


Annualized, right? That's what I used for my calculation of P/E, given the net income of ~ $750 million over two quarters.


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## slacker

andrewf said:


> That's some late '90s dot com bubble thinking right there.


In this new economy, only mind shares matter.


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## Argonaut

I generally hide under the bed like Belguy when it comes to tech, but I think Facebook is a buy and will gap up whatever the valuation is set at. Does it matter that current value is twice the market cap of Ford? Possibly. All I know is that LinkedIn, Zynga, and Groupon are all extreme sells on my list but Facebook is not. 

Speaking from my generation's perspective, it's something that is used every day by everybody. I had a conversation with my buddy today in that we were puzzled why a certain girl didn't use Facebook. Whether or not anybody clicks on the ads, I don't know.


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## marina628

I will be buying at the gate but what do i know


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## andrewf

I question their ability to monetize. Their ads sell for much less than Google.

Maybe Google should just buy FB, now that the Zucker has put in on the market.


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## avrex

gibor said:


> On LNKD IPO day, guys in US were able to place trade about 10 am, I tried on TDW/CM platform about 20-30 min after US guys bought -> and still I was getting error that ticker is not recognized.


I remember that first day. My finger hovered over the 'buy' button. I was thinking of buying and then hopefully flipping later that day. But, I couldn't do it. I was too scared.

For Facebook, I'm thinking of buying, as a longer-than-one-day hold. However, I don't think I'll buy on the first day. (The earliest trading date might be May 2012).


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## gibor365

avrex said:


> I remember that first day. My finger hovered over the 'buy' button. I was thinking of buying and then hopefully flipping later that day. But, I couldn't do it. I was too scared.
> 
> For Facebook, I'm thinking of buying, as a longer-than-one-day hold. However, I don't think I'll buy on the first day. (The earliest trading date might be May 2012).


Exactly the same story  I was freaking scared but decided to place limit buy ... and then I got error that ticker is not recognized.... and when 40 min after ticker became recognized, I already couldn't click a button 'Confirm'


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## Causalien

I've been through several IPO's and here's my strategy for when I couldn't get my IPO shares and had to buy on market open.

Look at level 2 and look at the bid queue. Find the price with the largest order and place a buy there, because the price will go down there there. If not, oh well. Also, make sure that your orders are in lots of 100. Otherwise it has a high chance of being ignored if the price only touches your limit buy for 1 second.

What are your IPO first second bidding strategy?


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## Dibs

Facebook IPO: Friends have already feasted - Globe and Mail



> Facebook’s imminent stock sale risks putting public stock markets to shame. Investors will surely clamour for a piece of the social network. But unlike Google’s 2004 initial public offering, everyone who’s anyone has already made a killing off Mark Zuckerberg’s dorm-room project. At a $100-billion (U.S.) valuation, it’s hard to imagine much could remain.


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## andrewf

It's a great point. I think you're prepaying for too much at $100 billion. I'd much rather own a slice of Google with huge, real cash flows for $187 billion that Facebook on the promise of cash flows that they haven't managed to deliver on yet, despite having hundreds of millions of users. If they aren't profitable now, how much user growth do they need? This isn't a 'growth' story in terms of user count. It is a monetization story. Ie, 'Facebook is badly run, buy in on the expectation that management will be able to significantly increase cash flow per user'. No thanks.


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## killuminati

But isn't there the fact that every amateur on the planet will want to buy this stock? It has to run up when its first released... EVERYONE knows what Facebook is. Price might not stay up forever but it might be a very nice trade.


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## andrewf

The greater-fool game is tricky. At this stage, you're the greater fool...


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## kcowan

I only bought 2 IPOs: MacDonald-Detweiler and Tim Hortons. Made out great on both of them because when they traded they were up. Tried a couple of others but got shut out. One was LULU and I bought post-IPO anyway (at my wife's insistence).

For FB, this is the new economy. The old metrics no longer work. Where have we heard that before? Traders will make out OK but investors beware!


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## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> this is the new economy. The old metrics no longer work. Where have we heard that before? *Traders will make out OK but investors beware!*


I completely agree!

Take a look at where these 2 previous IPO's are at now: DANG/YOKU. They pretty much doubled within the 1st couple of days from pure hype. Even LNKD & others came back to earth real fast.


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## Causalien

Well, 

There's the perception problem as well. The stocks that Toronto mentioned are not on the same level as Facebook, so I wouldn't use them as comparison. We need to find precedence of market leaders in new industries. GOOG is an immediate comparison, but we can't use it because their initial stock price was partly because they cold-shouldered the bankers.


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## Toronto.gal

Causalien said:


> The stocks that Toronto mentioned are not on the same level as Facebook, so I wouldn't use them as comparison.


You entirely missed the point that I was trying to make, and that was not comparing the stocks, but rather, where hype will take a stock, but no matter what the company name is, eventually ALL can fall equally hard in this irrational market.


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## newbie

marina628 said:


> I will be buying at the gate but what do i know




and i will be shorting it at the top price





Toronto.gal said:


> You entirely missed the point that I was trying to make, and that was not comparing the stocks, but rather, where hype will take a stock, but no matter what the company name is, eventually ALL can fall equally hard in this irrational market.




i fully agree with ur statement and this FB aint no different


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## Mockingbird

Causalien said:


> What are your IPO first second bidding strategy?


I read tapes. Works well for the natural momentum driven gyrations.

MB


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## Mockingbird

newbie said:


> and i will be shorting it at the top price


Shorting? Don't think so.

MB


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## newbie

Mockingbird said:


> Shorting? Don't think so.
> 
> MB


well
i am , and i see no problem at all , but it sure has risks.
why in heaven would i go long in an IPO?
but that is me


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## Causalien

Toronto.gal said:


> You entirely missed the point that I was trying to make, and that was not comparing the stocks, but rather, where hype will take a stock, but no matter what the company name is, eventually ALL can fall equally hard in this irrational market.


True to that. If I reflect back on my V purchase. Solid company, non tech. It still went through the same ups and downs of any IPO. Some IPOs goes up for 6 months out of the gate, some goes straight down for 6 months. This is what I am trying to categorize by making the comparison.


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## Causalien

Mockingbird said:


> I read tapes. Works well for the natural momentum driven gyrations.
> 
> MB


How do you go about reading the tape when the shares trades at nanoseconds?


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## jcgd

I dunno about tapes for Facebook. The price could be gapping up, down, all around with the hype it will have.


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## gibor365

newbie said:


> and i will be shorting it at the top price


 and I will be buying at the bottom  be hazlaha to both of us


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## newbie

gibor said:


> and I will be buying at the bottom  be hazlaha to both of us


yes sir
behatzlacha to both of us.
cant wait for the big hype

for the interested ones here is an article.
no ...... it is not me saying why it will be worth to short

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/01/30/four-reasons-why-facebooks-ipo-is-irrelevant/


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## Mockingbird

newbie said:


> well
> i am , and i see no problem at all , but it sure has risks.
> why in heaven would i go long in an IPO?
> but that is me


Nothing to do with the risk. You cannot (next to impossible) acquire the shares to short on the first few days of trading.

MB


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## humble_pie

mockingbird you are right of course.

no retail investor will be able to short in the early days, maybe not for weeks.

from the way he talks, it's doubtful newbie has ever shorted anything in his life
.
here's the proof below. What he's saying is wrong. He's under the mistaken impression that buying to cover a short is the same thing as buying long. Not true. Buying to cover a short results in zero position in the stock. Stock can go to the moon but the short who has covered will not be on board.

_"u have to obviously cover or loose ur money . but think about something for a sec.
u can benefit from the rally .
u buy back the shares and up u go ...
shorts can benefit from a rally also right?"_


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## Mockingbird

Causalien said:


> How do you go about reading the tape when the shares trades at nanoseconds?


Non-issue as long as I'm not trading against HF Traders. Different timeframe and different price objective. Despite the HFT, the readable price action continues to exist in the market and I still get my fills.

MB


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## ddkay

You really need to understand the internet marketing business to understand Facebook. marina is our resident expert on that, so I trust her judgement on this one. I don't know much Facebook can earn going forward but I do know advertisers pay wild amounts of money for targeted ads. The rest is a 30% cut they take from Facebook games and apps that use a virtual currency.


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## CB1021

Social media....I don't think it's a fad, and I don't see a ceiling for its growth potential. I still think it's a joke though. Out goes intellect, in comes hype. People can even hype up how they paid 20% tip on their swiss chalet combo because the waiter was cute. These ppl are fucking idiots. 

Invest in a bunch of idiots...hmm....how long will these idiots last. Talk about the 99% and the 1%. The 99% is on facebook, and it will soon become the 99.99%. People are just too fucking dumb these days.


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## Argonaut

CB1021 said:


> People can even hype up how they paid 20% tip on their swiss chalet combo because the waiter was cute. These ppl are fucking idiots.


Sounds like something I'd do. Colour me an idiot, I guess.


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## Jungle

Facebook filing IPO late today:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/31/tec...Latest+News)&utm_content=Google+International


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## ddkay

Here it is, Facebook's S-1 registration statement:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312512034517/d287954ds1.htm


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## ddkay

We do not intend to pay dividends for the foreseeable future.

We have never declared or paid cash dividends on our capital stock. We currently intend to retain any future earnings to finance the operation and expansion of our business, and we do not expect to declare or pay any dividends in the foreseeable future. As a result, you may only receive a return on your investment in our Class A common stock if the market price of our Class A common stock increases. In addition, our credit facility contains restrictions on our ability to pay dividends.


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## Causalien

How about some analysis from our resident expert Marina on Facebook? How it is used, how much they take per transaction, customer service? Problem resolution? Click through rate compared to google?

I personally never advertised on Facebook and am shifting away from it because it is now too mainstream for me, so I am really an outsider.


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## uptoolate

I have been impressed today with the number of the financial media/porn industry who have advised against buying the FB IPO. One on 680News today was very strong in saying you shouldn't touch it and even citing all the research on what losers IPOs have been down through the years. Yes sure it could be Google all over again but not very likely!


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## KaeJS

I'm a buyer because everyone else is.

Will probably sell the same day.

Look at this way - 

Dumb Money will be rushing in for sure. That's your buffer.

All macroeconomic factors aside; who's going to sit there and think that the FB IPO will drop in the first day of trading?

I'm in for a quick flip.

When people that have no clue about stocks start asking me if I'm buying Facebook, I should probably be buying Facebook.

When clients are calling to open Investment accounts to invest in Facebook, I should probably be buying Facebook.


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## MrMatt

Most people I know have started sliding away from major facebook usage.
Even myself I use it as another email account more than anything.

I don't think it has the quality and depth of Google, Apple etc.


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## uptoolate

That's true MrMatt. I have been surprised how much less my children have been using FB in the past year. This is especially true of the 16 and 18 year olds but also true of the younger kids and myself. 

If you can get in and out that fast KaeJS then it could work. I definitely would not be holding it for the likely initial roller coaster ride. Let us know how it works out for you. Good luck.


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> I'm a buyer because everyone else is.
> 
> Will probably sell the same day.
> 
> Look at this way -


Here is the question not when to buy, but when to sell. imho opinion you have to plan and not to be greedy.
For example sell 1/2 when price up 5% 
and sell another half when it's up another 5%


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## Cal

My 2 cents.

Yes Facebook is making money. But once they go public shareholders will want more profits every quarter, every year. Yes they can sell alot of advertising, but at a certain point it will get overrun, or you will have to pay for certain usage. Then how often will people log on.

You need electricity, food, but I am not convinced of needing social media.

Short term, yes money can be made, long term as a shareholder, not convinced.


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## gibor365

uptoolate said:


> That's true MrMatt. I have been surprised how much less my children have been using FB in the past year. This is especially true of the 16 and 18 year olds but also true of the younger kids and myself.
> 
> If you can get in and out that fast KaeJS then it could work. I definitely would not be holding it for the likely initial roller coaster ride. Let us know how it works out for you. Good luck.


Not really... my kids 16 and 10 and they more and more using FB. Like they move to different school and new school has group on FB, or starting to do some sport -> again new group and so on. 
Now with all noise about IPO I suspect even more people will start using it...


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## KaeJS

gibor said:


> Here is the question not when to buy, but when to sell. imho opinion you have to plan and not to be greedy.


Exactly.

Risk mitigation.

A person must look at Facebook for what it is: Free money on a quick flip.

The IPO will be a hit the first day, everyone knows this. Just make sure you don't hold overnight. Forget about the "could be/would be/should be".

COULD it be worth more the next day? Yes.
WOULD it be wise to hold it? Maybe.
SHOULD it have this high of a valuation? No.

My inclination is to buy a lot of it, wait an hour or two, then sell it all. If I only make 1%, so be it. At least I'm not placing my portfolio at risk.


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## marina628

I have $20,000 I am going to buy FB with , plan to do a hit and run with 50% and hold on to the other 50%.As for business experience ,we make facebook pages for all our events and popular sites and get on average 16,000 -25,000 visitors per month from facebook.They make a fortune on cpm ads but I think difficult to run target ads through them unless you are selling toilet paper lol.


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## gibor365

KaeJS said:


> Exactly.
> 
> Risk mitigation.
> 
> A person must look at Facebook for what it is: Free money on a quick flip.
> 
> The IPO will be a hit the first day, everyone knows this. Just make sure you don't hold overnight. Forget about the "could be/would be/should be".
> 
> COULD it be worth more the next day? Yes.
> WOULD it be wise to hold it? Maybe.
> SHOULD it have this high of a valuation? No.
> 
> My inclination is to buy a lot of it, wait an hour or two, then sell it all. If I only make 1%, so be it. At least I'm not placing my portfolio at risk.


You kinda offer another plan.... buy at the beginning of the day and sell in 2 hours  regardless % of gain /loss...
imho if you sell with nice profit half of your position, you can hold it overnight...
I still think that movement of this stock will be similat to LNKD..

To "buy a lot".... depends what available cash Id have...definetely I'm not gona sell anything only for goal of buying FB.


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## doctrine

Can't wait to see the chaos. Hard to find anyone who thinks this is a good deal long term. Facebook is one timeline away from being dropped like a hot potato.


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## KaeJS

doctrine said:


> *Facebook is one timeline away from being dropped like a hot potato.*


LOL! 

That was hilarious! Kudos.

By the way, I think the mandatory timeline is a very bad idea. I don't want timeline on my facebook page. It's horrible. Hard to navigate, things look cluttered.

If someone uses timeline on my friend list, I don't even go to their page anymore. Can't be bothered with that.


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## cannadian

Kae are you thinking of playing this on the first day as well?

I suspect many non-investors will even be drawn to this stock with no knowledge of valuations, so I'm probably going to buy at the open and hold it for a few hours and hope to leave someone else holding the bag


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## Causalien

The timeline thing was very annoying, but I was forced to switch to it because certain facebook app I need requires it. That was definitely a turn off. But did it make me delete my account? Nope. Their mitigation method is too good.

By the way. I strongly suggest everyone to try and delete your facebook. It'll take you to a page where it shows you pictures of people you really care about. How they know who to show? I have no idea. They even guessed the ones I don't visit often on purpose.


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## newbie

humble_pie said:


> mockingbird you are right of course.
> 
> no retail investor will be able to short in the early days, maybe not for weeks.
> 
> from the way he talks, it's doubtful newbie has ever shorted anything in his life
> .
> here's the proof below. What he's saying is wrong. He's under the mistaken impression that buying to cover a short is the same thing as buying long. Not true. Buying to cover a short results in zero position in the stock. Stock can go to the moon but the short who has covered will not be on board.
> 
> _"u have to obviously cover or loose ur money . but think about something for a sec.
> u can benefit from the rally .
> u buy back the shares and up u go ...
> shorts can benefit from a rally also right?"_



Mr. humbie

wow this was the most astonishing answer a trader can give.
anyway let me tell ya how it actually works lol.
so what if i close my short position and buy back the shares on the way up?
if i did not word it right above so what?
by the way do not criticize or take me for a fool man.
you are the same guy that when i arrived here way back gave me an interesting welcome.
and u call urself a trader.
like u guys say here
Jesus, joseph and Mary.
to each his own.
i probably shorted more stocks than u ever did in ur entire life


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## stephenheath

So basically they aren't going to pay any dividends or give any kind of return to the investors, and Zuckerburg (sp?) keeps 57% of the actual voting shares and they still want top dollar for it?

I think I'll pass on this one, I'm too scared it will tank right off the bat to even try and follow you brave souls in a quick flip


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## kcowan

These dual class voting shares (like Magna was) are always bad news for investors.









Declining usage from WSJ Deal Journal.


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## gibor365

I'm not sure...but the question is if FB have their product in different languages and in emerging countries?


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## Spudd

I have co-workers in Manila (Philippines) who are on Facebook. They seem to be very active users, too. 

Additionally, FB introduced a new language feature where if someone posts in my news feed in another language, it will offer to translate it to English for me. It's pretty slick.


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## jcgd

Edited because I was out of line. Apologies.


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## Toronto.gal

Would you like to start a grammar thread & then you can do all the corrections for ALL that make grammatical errors by the way?


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## jcgd

no i wouldn't
why would i?
when we could make our post understandable.
in the threads we are posting in T.gal?


Maybe I'm out of line, maybe I'm not. Everyone makes mistakes, but we can at least give it a bit of effort.


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## Toronto.gal

My point is that many are guilty here of same errors/texting, etc., but only one person here has been asked to write properly. Why is that?  And how come I can understand everyone's posts? [ok., sometimes with a bit of effort]. But if you don't understand, then you can always ignore such posts.

Can we ALL [newbi*e* and all] try to get along here and limit our comments to constructive/helpful criticism and leave the mockery aside? I have been guilty of the latter as well, but will stop doing so.


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## Causalien

Let's keep the discussion to Facebook people. If you don't like someone, go to your "user cp", click on "Edit Ignore List" and add the person to your list. No need to voice your dislike and cause negative emotions that steers away from making money. Also, please refrain from telling people that you ignored certain person and causing further angst. Let the moderators judge if someone needs to be expelled. 

I saw an uptick in adaption in friends all over the world beginning last year. On average, a person has 500 connection (ahem friends in FB term) in their life. More for pretty girls and event organisers, 1000+ for celebrities. A 1 year old FB account has around 100 friends and you can see this trend in most international profiles. What facebook haven't been able to penetrate though is China. Which, I believe, is what they need to continue the exponential growth. Otherwise, they can only cut cost and increase margin from now on.


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## andrewf

Even if they got a big chunk of the Chinese market, they can only double their userbase. Facebook is well past the exponential growth phase. They have user accounts for more than 10% of the world's population, and like 40-50% of internet users.


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## gibor365

Causalien said:


> What facebook haven't been able to penetrate though is China. Which, I believe, is what they need to continue the exponential growth. Otherwise, they can only cut cost and increase margin from now on.


I think the same thing exist regarding Russia. There are similar websites for Russian speaking users that also widely used here in Toronto.
That what imho FB need...expend popularity in BRIC countries...


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## Causalien

With the Arab spring example. I doubt these countries would allow it, for strategic and military reasons. What I am really fathoming right now, is a Facebook acquisition of all these separate little facebook of different countries and how that would have to work. There'd need to be a firewall, which defeats the whole purpose.


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## Toronto.gal

Nope, there is no turning back on social networking sites, so I would have to agree with gibor; BRICK & other big markets as well.


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## buhhy

As an university student, I feel like FB is already close or past its peak. There doesn't seem to be any plan to expand horizontally (anyone heard of their Android-forked FB phone?). I don't think timeline is liked too much. The best thing FB could do to grow is to improve their ad revenue.

Regarding China, people act as if China is this ripe fruit for the taking. It's not. See what happened to Google? Baidu still has the overwhelming slice of search. China will favor Chinese products, not to mention FB is still blocked. I can see QQ and renrenwang beating easily out FB, though I can't say for sure.

I can see everyone and their mothers tossing their money at FB stock, and it could be a good short-term trade, but I personally wouldn't invest in FB in the long run.

EDIT: I feel like Zuckerberg definitely doesn't want to go public. Why now, when they've already passed their potential for exponential growth? An inflated PE of over 100 can't be sustained when the potential growth isn't there.


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## gibor365

Zuckerberg is a very smart and young guy, so I beleive he will invent something else to enhance FB.
I agree that probable Chinese will use home products more... like in Russia (and fomer Russian people - like myself  ) majority uses odnoklassniki.ri and vcontacte.ru , but Zuckerberg can buy those...

Also, note that in BRIC amd many emerging countries computers are still luxioury (even though people computer literate) and I expect potential growth in using PC (this is why I'm bulish on INTC) and networking, include FB


----------



## doctrine

I have always liked Google's products and services. Like gmail, web searches, image searches, and google documents are great. And what a steal when they bought youtube! 

Now compared to facebook, I like the concept, but they are in a never ending fight against their users when they make even a small change. And they make money off ads? I have never even seen a facebook ad.

Since Facebook is profitable, it's not likely to go bankrupt anytime soon. We'll be all having this debate for a long time. 

For those that own mutual funds, NASDAQ index funds or a US total market fund, congratulations, you will likely soon own shares in Facebook. You will be participating in the destruction of billions of dollars, meanwhile Zuckerberg will be a billionaire forever.


----------



## gibor365

Today on 680News they said that majority of the profit (don;t remember exact %) was from ads. Also, it's not known yet if FB will be trading on NASDAQ or NYSE... definitely ETF like VTI or TDB902 will have small % of FB, not sure about NASDAQ

Another question if some other stocks will benefit from lanch of FB ?


----------



## Causalien

Zynga, MS, RENN, Sina, twitter to name a few.


----------



## ddkay

FB have $3.9 billion in cash. They are building a $760 million data center in Lulea, SE - this is the first one in Europe and in addition to 2 more planned (3 total) they have in the US.

There is a warning in the S-1 about dilution on the first day, many insiders will be exercising options to purchase shares not included in the IPO. Nobody knows the IPO price yet, estimates are between $35-$45 and it probably wont list until June.

Not all IPOs fly up on the first day, everyone telling people not to buy it must have looked at Pandora that lost 53% of its value by day 3. I guess I'll wait and see.


----------



## doctrine

Morgan Stanley isn't stupid. They're going to be smart in their pricing. Ideally, they want the price to only increase 15-25% on the first day. If it doubles, that means that they and their clients have missed out on a lot of money. But for publicity reasons, they do want a little room for upside. If they propose pricing shares at $30, for example, and its obvious that will be bid up to $60 in short order, they'll increase the initial price to at least $45.


----------



## ddkay

Morgan Stanley underwrote Pandora.


----------



## newbie

Toronto.gal said:


> My point is that many are guilty here of same errors/texting, etc., but only one person here has been asked to write properly. Why is that?  And how come I can understand everyone's posts? [ok., sometimes with a bit of effort]. But if you don't understand, then you can always ignore such posts.
> 
> Can we ALL [newbi*e* and all] try to get along here and limit our comments to constructive/helpful criticism and leave the mockery aside? I have been guilty of the latter as well, but will stop doing so.


T.gal
thks for ur kind words , but i am going against the grain here, and it seems that mr. humble is the know it all wizaerd of Oz here.
it was a pleasure meeting you but i will leave it at the way it is.
nothing to gain here by posting anythingg from my end.
more leisure than anything else.
i am a very determined person and Mr. humble is a ludicrous comment stating that shorts cant benefit from a runup in stocks.
since day 1 that i was here 2 years ago his welcome was utterly ridiculous for someone starting to trade.
what matters is money in my pocket .
sold my faz after averaging down with a gain of 1 dollar.
still have full belief that a retracement is due on this ludicrous rally.
GLTY and GIBOr.
as for posting , no more posting.
got nothing to gain here.
as per facebook i will short it when shares are available.
GL in ur endeavours.
i still cant believe that a so called trader said what he said.
what a sycophant


----------



## Toronto.gal

I learned some things from you newbie, so thank you & I hope you stick around.

I posted this elsewhere, but it really belongs here.

*From Founders to Decorators, Facebook Riches*

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/technology/for-founders-to-decorators-facebook-riches.html?_r=1


----------



## Homerhomer

Toronto.gal said:


> I learned some things from you newbie, so thank you & I hope you stick around.


If you learnt something from him I hope it doesn't mean the nicest person on the forum will turn into biggest jerk and start telling poeple they are idiots, liars, to go back to school and start using their brains. I hope that's not what you have learnt. Writing skill while challening to read is the least of the problem ;-)

I wonder how many who want to get into FB really understand the dynamics of post ipo trading (because I doubt it would be a hold), and if any of that applies to the phenomena called FB.

I will watch from the sidelines.


----------



## blin10

newbie said:


> T.gal
> thks for ur kind words , but i am going against the grain here, and it seems that mr. humble is the know it all wizaerd of Oz here.
> it was a pleasure meeting you but i will leave it at the way it is.
> nothing to gain here by posting anythingg from my end.
> more leisure than anything else.
> i am a very determined person and Mr. humble is a ludicrous comment stating that shorts cant benefit from a runup in stocks.
> since day 1 that i was here 2 years ago his welcome was utterly ridiculous for someone starting to trade.
> what matters is money in my pocket .
> *sold my faz after averaging down with a gain of 1 dollar.*
> still have full belief that a retracement is due on this ludicrous rally.
> GLTY and GIBOr.
> as for posting , no more posting.
> got nothing to gain here.
> as per facebook i will short it when shares are available.
> GL in ur endeavours.
> i still cant believe that a so called trader said what he said.
> what a sycophant


that's impossible, stop lieing... faz been going straight down since your 37 average, either you lied about whole thing, or you down huge now... either way I don't care but you didn't average down anything with a gain of a dollar


----------



## marina628

I will trade FB like I have successfully been trading GRPN ,I bought last week for $20.21 and sold this morning for $24.00.I am sure in next week or so it will drop below 20 again and I will buy again.I don't think people quite know what to make of GRPN yet but since inception I have made over $9000 on a $16,000 investment.


----------



## Homerhomer

marina628 said:


> I don't think people quite know what to make of GRPN yet but since inception I have made over $9000 on a $16,000 investment.


Fantastic, congratulations.


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> By the way. I strongly suggest everyone to try and delete your facebook. It'll take you to a page where it shows you pictures of people you really care about. How they know who to show? I have no idea. They even guessed the ones I don't visit often on purpose.


Just tried this.

I'm not sure how it picks those people, but I went to "deactivate" my account 5 different times.

Each of those times, one particular person showed up all 5 times, another particular person showed up 2 times. Then there was some people I never talk to/care about.

I'm not sure how it determines which person it will show, but the one person that I expected it to show for sure didn't appear at all in either of the 5 attempts.


----------



## zylon

*I couldn't say it better myself, so I'll just quote ...*

*"So, explain to me again…. "*


> If readers haven’t already figured it out, totallygroovygirl likes her privacy and she is doesn’t spend 24-7 plugged-in. She chose this blog to communicate to the world and you guys are lucky of gg checks her email account once a day. GG is not a super-techie, she has a child’s flip phone. It’s like she lives in the Dark Ages….


the rest here


----------



## rookie

Causalien said:


> By the way. I strongly suggest everyone to try and delete your facebook. It'll take you to a page where it shows you pictures of people you really care about. How they know who to show? I have no idea. They even guessed the ones I don't visit often on purpose.


i guess they use a mix of people you visit and the people who visit your page as well and the frequency of the visits/activity (messages, pokes, shares etc)


----------



## Causalien

KaeJS said:


> Just tried this.
> 
> I'm not sure how it picks those people, but I went to "deactivate" my account 5 different times.
> 
> Each of those times, one particular person showed up all 5 times, another particular person showed up 2 times. Then there was some people I never talk to/care about.
> 
> I'm not sure how it determines which person it will show, but the one person that I expected it to show for sure didn't appear at all in either of the 5 attempts.


What did you do differently to that person? Never checked their profile? Or just post profanity on their wall all the time?


----------



## Causalien

zylon said:


> *"So, explain to me again…. "*
> 
> 
> the rest here


Because people look back at google + amazon and realizes that when they went IPO, everyone had the same thought and they haven't figured out how to make money yet. It is only after being public and profit becomes priority that they figured it out and started "Doing Evil".


----------



## zylon

*off topic - i seem to do that a lot*

I deleted my FB account a long time ago ... at least two years. Or more correctly, “_deactivated_” my account, as I don't think it's possible to ever completely, and utterly erase oneself from FB.

On a whim I opened a *Twitter* account yesterday. For my purposes it's way more useful than FB. Extremely easy to open an account, and just as easy to use, without the multiple pages of little boxes to check or uncheck as with FB ... and then do it all over again in a few days when they decide to “_make improvements_”.

With _Twitter_ I can follow whoever I want without the “_can I be your friend – pretty please?_”; there aren't any annoying flash ads ... all in all, the first 24 hours have been a pleasant experience.

Signed: _happy as a clam in twitter land!_


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> What did you do differently to that person? Never checked their profile? Or just post profanity on their wall all the time?


Checked her profile more than anyone else's.

But she has it blocked so I can't comment on any of her statuses/photos.

That's probably why she didn't show up.

It says:

"Katherine will miss you!" and "Mark will miss you!" etc

But I guess if I'm blocked from posting on her page, then she wouldn't really miss me, now would she?


----------



## D-ru

Can someone please explain why the IPO will be so difficult to get? Why cant the average person put in a order? how will others get theres in with no prob?

Also, this might be stupid... but What is an IPO? difference between IPO and a stock?

Thanks


----------



## ddkay

It's not difficult to get Facebook shares, you just have to wait until the date the issues are listed on a public exchange. Most likely that will happen by summer. Then anyone can buy FB.


----------



## D-ru

It sounded like "average" investors wont be able to buy any, sounds like only the high profile investors will be able too


----------



## jcgd

Well, that's referring to the IPO, as in having some of the share the moment they are public... getting your hands on them before they are listed.


----------



## Causalien

You need 1 million in liquid asset or at least 100k in income to be accredited investor I think. That will enable you to buy their private offerings. (And about 300k per transaction) There's also a lot of scam shares floating around.


----------



## gibor365

cashmoney said:


> Can someone please explain why the IPO will be so difficult to get? Why cant the average person put in a order? how will others get theres in with no prob?



because the richest are always first.  so they are introducing rules that they will become richer.

or in order words: Everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others


----------



## KaeJS

cashmoney said:


> Also, this might be stupid... but What is an IPO? difference between IPO and a stock?


an IPO is not a security you can buy.

IPO stands for Initial Public Offering.

Therefore, an IPO is the first time you can buy Stock in a particular corporation. You can't "buy" an IPO. You buy the shares FROM the IPO.


----------



## londoncalling

IPO - Initial Public Offering... How's that for irony?


----------



## gibor365

londoncalling said:


> IPO - Initial Public Offering... How's that for irony?


Yeap, but initial "public" is very limited


----------



## kcowan

To be correct. many shares are traded a private equity. When an IPO is offered, the sponsoring brokers have a limited number of shares available for "regular" investors. Royal used to get me in on their underwritings for the TSX. But they often had insufficient shares for me as I was not on the favorite list (having most of my money with TDW). If a broker offers you an IPO, be cautious because it means that demand from their insiders is insufficient to sell their allocation.


----------



## Paul75

*An Open Letter To Mark Zuckerberg*

Dear Mark Zuckerberg,

Congratulations on your IPO filing. We understand that you are faced with a difficult decision soon on where to list your stock. You have probably heard from your bankers that the NASDAQ exchange is for tech savvy companies like Google and Apple and the NYSE is where the blue chip companies like GE and Caterpillar choose to list. 

source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...-it-doesn’t-matter-where-you-list-your-stock/

Please share your views on this article.


----------



## Paul75

No one is interested to discuss about Mark Zuckerberg's big step and Facebook IPO.


----------



## ddkay

Oh, there is already another thread on the Facebook IPO, this one must have got lost in the chaos

http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/10231-Facebook-(FB)/page3

The IPO is pending approval and shouldn't be until late spring or summer at the earliest

Mod can merge this thread?

As for the article, well I think it's very condescending. Most programmers know about networks/protocol design, at least the ones that are employed..


----------



## Dibs

Facebook bought Instagram for 1 billion in stock and cash today.

Interesting points:

Instagram is less than 2 years old. 
A few months ago Instagram raised 50 million in VC at a valuation of 500 million.
Instagram has around 30 million users, which comes out to Facebook paying around 33$ per user. 

http://venturebeat.com/company/instagram/


----------



## ddkay

IPO date set May 18


----------



## andrewf

Any predictions on first 30 days share performance? My guess is down 0 - 10% from IPO. I think they may have waited just a bit too long to go public.


----------



## doctrine

I bet it goes up 25% or more. Look at Amazon, sells at an insane valuation. And FB has the largest sustained captive audience in the world.


----------



## andrewf

FB's user growth is grinding to a halt, and incremental users are going to be primarily low-value users from low-income countries. Justifying FB's IPO price requires some pretty optimistic assumptions about revenue per user that FB has not been able to demonstrate or provide a convincing plan to achieve. Maybe they will get there, but paying for that growth up-front in a fickle market like social media isn't very savvy.


----------



## Causalien

I am not touching Facebook based on my own usage pattern and my friend's (mostly early adopter of tech) usage pattern.
I would've touched it if it was 3 years ago, but alas, the tech trend is moving on to building web 3.0. FB was web 2.0

Doesn't mean there won't be a bubble though. Look at groupon. Piece of crap, but IPO performed well and did what the founders wanted to do, which was providing an exit. Netflix same etc etc. Trade, don't hold. Though I have still yet to see CRM crash and burn like I wanted and expected (Can't be right on everything)
If FB announces that it's doing something more than just facebooking and I approve of, then there's probably some value there. Putting all those smart engineers to work on solving the world's issue is a better way to allocate effort than the continued development of an address book.


----------



## kcowan

What bothers me is their new creative metrics for measuring activity. I can be counted as a user if I use FB to log into another site. No possibility that I see any of their ads. Plus I never friend commercial sites, and I suppress all games info. I just don't see its potential.


----------



## andrewf

I think they'd have a hard time getting to Google CPM rates, too. Google ads are often helpful for something you're searching for. At least relevant. FB ads are usually distractions from the primary activity of socializing. Maybe some potential for advertising local establishments, or figuring out when you might be planning a trip and targeting ads (maybe based on the kind of location you like to travel to). But I don't think it's as broad as the range of things people use Google for. And many people are using Google with their credit card in hand...


----------



## brad

It's worth keeping in mind, though, that 99% of people are not early adopters, don't care about specs, and don't want to move to a new service until all their friends are there. Most of my friends have Google+ accounts but only one of them ever posts anything there. The rest of them continue to post on Facebook because that's where everyone they know is still posting. You see people complaining loudly about Facebook's forced changes (Timeline, etc.), but it looks like it's going to take more than inconvenience and Web 2.0 vs. 3.0 to make them leave. They're not really a "captive" audience, but the inertia to stay with what they know is powerful.

Does Google+ even have ads? I don't see any when I log in.


----------



## Dibs

brad, your comments on Facebook vs Google+ reminds me of the fate of two social news sites, Digg and Reddit. Digg used to be the more popular news site. However, after an ill-planned, possibly VC capital meddled change to the website in August 2010, there was a mass migration to Reddit.










I think this shows that Facebook may be just one step away from losing a large amount of its users. 

Of course comparing the Digg/Reddit situation is not an exact comparison with Facebook/Google+. A social networking site may have more traction/inertia in keeping its userbase than these social news sites because the network is built among friends instead of anonymous user accounts. Nonetheless, I would never rule out a last straw event that can spark a mass migration to another site. 

Myspace --> Facebook --> ??


----------



## greenhawk

They say investment bankers will buy most of the IPO shares at the outset of trading.

What's a guy who wants in badly to do, make a market-price buy-order on Questrade and just wait?


----------



## HaroldCrump

greenhawk said:


> They say investment bankers will buy most of the IPO shares at the outset of trading.
> What's a guy who wants in badly to do, make a market-price buy-order on Questrade and just wait?


Yes, you have to wait until the day it starts trading.
On that day, place a market buy order just prior to open.
That will ensure you will get the shares as soon as they begin trading.

A blind market buy order is not usually a good idea, but if you are _that _desperate, it is up to you.


----------



## greenhawk

HaroldCrump said:


> Yes, you have to wait until the day it starts trading.
> On that day, place a market buy order just prior to open.
> That will ensure you will get the shares as soon as they begin trading.
> 
> *A blind market buy order is not usually a good idea*, but if you are _that _desperate, it is up to you.


I thought about that, but my speculation is that the stock will rise dramatically shortly after the IPO -- I also agree that Facebook does have a "captive" audience. Nobody seems to quit for any reason.

This might sound strange and noob-like, but as opposed to targeting a set number of shares, is there any way an order can be placed using dollars instead?

eg. order placed for as many shares as X dollars will buy.


----------



## HaroldCrump

greenhawk said:


> but my speculation is that the stock will rise dramatically shortly after the IPO


If you are truly convinced that you are ready to put money on the line for that, it's fine.
It may work out, it may not.



> This might sound strange and noob-like, but as opposed to targeting a set number of shares, is there any way an order can be placed using dollars instead?
> eg. order placed for as many shares as X dollars will buy.


No, all orders have to have the number of units/shares specified.
What you are asking for cannot be done with a market order, but can be done with a limit order.
i.e. you can bid a certain amount of money for a certain number of shares.
Of course, there is no guarantee that the order will fill.


----------



## brad

Dibs said:


> A social networking site may have more traction/inertia in keeping its userbase than these social news sites because the network is built among friends instead of anonymous user accounts. Nonetheless, I would never rule out a last straw event that can spark a mass migration to another site.


The thing is, you'd have to do something that made a critical mass of the users angry enough to leave. A lot of people I know have said "I'm leaving Facebook for Google+," and they did, but they came back after a few months after they experienced the comparative loneliness in Google-land. It's not enough if a few hundred thousand people leave to pull the rest with them. You need a few tens of millions to create traction. And to make that happen, Facebook would have to do something extraordinarily boneheaded. Which they might. But I kinda doubt it.

Leaving Facebook is like leaving your bank: the longer you stay with it the harder it is to leave, and banks know it, so they continue to add fees and reduce services because only a small portion of people get frustrated enough to go elsewhere. 

Last time I checked, considerably less than 10% of the world was on Facebook. The saturation is much higher in North America and Europe, and there are other more popular social networking sites in other places (e.g., Japan). But there's still a pretty big untapped market for someone to grow into.


----------



## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> Last time I checked, considerably less than 10% of the world was on Facebook. The saturation is much higher in North America and Europe, and there are other more popular social networking sites in other places (e.g., Japan). But there's still a pretty big untapped market for someone to grow into.


The other 90% perhaps has more pressing things on their mind.


----------



## buhhy

Dibs said:


> brad, your comments on Facebook vs Google+ reminds me of the fate of two social news sites, Digg and Reddit. Digg used to be the more popular news site. However, after an ill-planned, possibly VC capital meddled change to the website in August 2010, there was a mass migration to Reddit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think this shows that Facebook may be just one step away from losing a large amount of its users.
> 
> Of course comparing the Digg/Reddit situation is not an exact comparison with Facebook/Google+. A social networking site may have more traction/inertia in keeping its userbase than these social news sites because the network is built among friends instead of anonymous user accounts. Nonetheless, I would never rule out a last straw event that can spark a mass migration to another site.
> 
> Myspace --> Facebook --> ??


The geeks, technorati, and hipsters, which make up a good chunk of reddit/digg, are especially mercurial, and can get offended by the most trivial things. Facebook on the other hand, has a much more diverse userbase, which makes a mass exodus unlikely since there can rarely be ONE thing that riles up a critical mass of people.


----------



## brad

HaroldCrump said:


> The other 90% perhaps has more pressing things on their mind.


Actually most of them don't even have computers (or smartphones), so "social networks" mean something different to them. Asia, India, and Africa account for 75% of the world's population, and about 18 percent of the people on earth live in extreme poverty (less than $1.25/day adjusted for local buying power).


----------



## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> Asia, India, and Africa account for 75% of the world's population, and about 18 percent of the people on earth live in extreme poverty


Yes, that is exactly what I meant.
Social networking on the Internet is a side product of the wealth, boredom, and idleness of western societies.


----------



## brad

HaroldCrump said:


> Social networking on the Internet is a side product of the wealth, boredom, and idleness of western societies.


It might also be a side product of the loss of "real" communities, since we no longer need to rely on our neighbours to help with things like planting crops, raising barns, taking care of kids, etc. We might not know or like our real neighbours, so we establish virtual communities of our friends no matter where they physically live. I don't think that's such a bad thing as long as people don't forget how to connect with people face to face (which of course is happening, or at least it's changing. I'm offended when friends pull out their cellphones to check email or texts when I'm having a meal with them, but that's considered normal behaviour now).


----------



## andrewf

FB's share of current internet users is something like 35%. Its growth is going to slow considerably.

And the 65% it doesn't have are lower value than the 35% it does--in terms of revenue potential.


----------



## brad

andrewf said:


> FB's share of current internet users is something like 35%. Its growth is going to slow considerably.


Maybe, although it's worth noting that the number of internet users globally is increasing by about 10 million per quarter (2.28 billion in March 2012 compared with 2.27 billion in December 2011, for example).


----------



## greenhawk

HaroldCrump said:


> Yes, you have to wait until the day it starts trading.
> On that day, place a market buy order just prior to open.
> That will ensure you will get the shares as soon as they begin trading.
> 
> A blind market buy order is not usually a good idea, but if you are _that _desperate, it is up to you.


Thanks for the advice. 

Questrade is always kind of weird for placing orders. I guess I only have a few other random questions at this point, seeing as I've made up my mind that I'd want to place a market-order to buy in on the day-of. 

1. When I place the order, would I specifically be ordering "NYSE:FB" on Questrade? I know it's quite picky about the exchange and symbol, and I rarely get it right on the first try.
2. This is going into a TFSA, will the fact that it's on the NYSE cause issues?
3. Must the order be placed right before opening on the morning of May 18th, or can it be placed earlier so I don't forget about it?


----------



## HaroldCrump

greenhawk said:


> 1. When I place the order, would I specifically be ordering "NYSE:FB" on Questrade? I know it's quite picky about the exchange and symbol, and I rarely get it right on the first try.


I don't know how the QT interface works, but maybe there is a way to look up the symbol before you place the trade.
Look up the symbol to make sure it is correct and you don't end up with a penny stock called _FabberBakker_, instead ;o)

I have also heard about issues with QT where newly IPO'ed stocks don't show up in their systems immediately.
You either have to wait for a few hours/days or call them.
But maybe FB will be an exception since it is so popular and hyped.



> 2. This is going into a TFSA, will the fact that it's on the NYSE cause issues?


No, except that an automatic currency conversion may be involved if the primary currency of your account is CAD.



> 3. Must the order be placed right before opening on the morning of May 18th, or can it be placed earlier so I don't forget about it?


You can place it as soon as the symbol appears on their systems.
Placing the order just before open will allow you be enter a more competitive bid since you can see all the other bids and ask on the board.
I assume there is a way in QT to view Level II quotes.


----------



## Four Pillars

greenhawk said:


> Thanks for the advice.
> 
> Questrade is always kind of weird for placing orders. I guess I only have a few other random questions at this point, seeing as I've made up my mind that I'd want to place a market-order to buy in on the day-of.
> 
> 1. When I place the order, would I specifically be ordering "NYSE:FB" on Questrade? I know it's quite picky about the exchange and symbol, and I rarely get it right on the first try.
> 2. This is going into a TFSA, will the fact that it's on the NYSE cause issues?
> 3. Must the order be placed right before opening on the morning of May 18th, or can it be placed earlier so I don't forget about it?


http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/how-to-buy-an-etf-or-stock-using-a-canadian-discount-brokerage/


----------



## doctrine

Yes, if you're with Questrade, call the trade desk to place the trade, don't do it electronically.


----------



## Causalien

Couples go to Starbucks only to sit down and type on their phones together. We created this new trend. I can only shake my head.


----------



## sharbit

Causalien said:


> Couples go to Starbucks only to sit down and type on their phones together. We created this new trend. I can only shake my head.


it's romatic when they like the same status together


----------



## Toronto.gal

Causalien said:


> Couples go to Starbucks only to sit down and type on their phones together. We created this new trend. I can only shake my head.


I shake my head too. :rolleyes2:


----------



## KaeJS

Causalien said:


> Couples go to Starbucks only to sit down and type on their phones together. We created this new trend. I can only shake my head.


You'd never catch me dead doing that. 

But, I do see it very often.


----------



## doctrine

You will never become a millionaire by investing in the broad market. Broad market returns are on average around 7% a year nominal. You can only become a millionaire by increasing your income, saving money over an extremely long period of time, by starting a business and being good & successful at it, or being lucky in some way (win the lottery, pick a stock that increases 40000%, etc). Stock markets are more of a wealth management tool than a wealth creation tool.


----------



## Causalien

KaeJS said:


> You'd never catch me dead doing that.
> 
> But, I do see it very often.


I totally missed how this turned into style, because I've been running around. Someone fill me in on the history? Personally my phone gets turned off when I meet people and the people I meet are of the "older" generation before cell phone were introduced so they have the same respectful precaution.

Deep down inside I have a suspicion of what's happening. The Internet is bringing about a homogenization of thought that we don't have any original thoughts anymore. So when people meet, they need to find something interesting on the net to tell each other in order to laugh together. 

I remember an episode in outer limit where the net is implanted into the brain and its purpose for existence is to get human request more access to more data in order to prove its own usefulness and purpose of existence. Just like a government will always expand to use up all the budget allocated due to its inherent incentive structure. The more people under your command, the more your prestige.


----------



## Addy

I am considering purchasing shares on Friday. Are there reliable stats out there that show Google and Apple's IPO within the first week or two? Is it a general pattern for large hyped up companies to dip after the first day or so?

Edit: I simply googled the stock history and it's interesting, at least for Google, the first day or few days it's high then dips down and continues to rise and fall over the next year or two without hitting the initial offering day's price until well into it's third year. APPLE stock followed a similar pattern, but in a shorter timeline... price was high the first week then dipped down and went back up a few months later then dips and highs along the way as it went back up.

This has me rethinking holding off my Friday purchase until at least next week or next month.


----------



## marina628

If I am buying the rest of you probably shouldn't lol


----------



## killuminati

Random thought but I don't think most people buying this stock will care about earnings, market value and all that kinda stuff.

Share price will probably mean the most and a share thats <50 bucks _seems _cheap when its compared to 500-600+ for apple and google. No matter how many shares are outstanding or what it really means to the value of the company.

Seems dumb but linked in sells for 113 and has a 700P/E

Is it really difficult to have a chance at buying this if I use Questrade?


----------



## kcowan

I think Marina and other Vegas players should be left to play this one. Smells like Y2K. And me holding 300 shares of AAPL...

Have any of you bought anything based on ads you saw on FB? It is not Google.


----------



## marina628

Well my interest in Facebook is the casino games , if USA ever regulates the online gaming market we may see companies like Party Gaming and 888 making big deals with them.Both of these are clients of mine and I am aware of how much is on the table if regulated gambling becomes a reality.


----------



## rd_aaron

kcowan said:


> I think Marina and other Vegas players should be left to play this one. Smells like Y2K. And me holding 300 shares of AAPL...
> 
> Have any of you bought anything based on ads you saw on FB? It is not Google.


I was told that they also make money by basically selling demographic info (since they own your info when you sign up). I'm not really sure how it would work... algorithms that look at your age, location, gender, etc. and things you post about and they sell that info to interested companies?


----------



## donald

I think facebook is declining,i personally would'nt buy shares(they waited way 2 long imo to go public-2 late to the party)I'm noticing Twitter is where it's @/going now imo.Everybody i know who is on twitter checks that out before facebook when they want to tap into social media-it's gaining and it won't stop and fb is going to feel that switch....my thoughts


----------



## marina628

I got a coupon for $10.00 off Benjamin Moore paint from Facebook ad


----------



## larry81

marina628 said:


> I got a coupon for $10.00 off Benjamin Moore paint from Facebook ad


big business !!!


----------



## kcowan

I just heard that GM has cancelled their $10million annual ad contract with FB because it was not generating enough new business. I don't use any of the games so I can't comment on that aspect of their business.


----------



## marina628

The value to any web marketing company and their clients at the end of the day will be the database of info they have on people.We may see an email from face book in our email box in the future selling lawn care , security systems ,makeup and music etc .IMO they have yet to scratch the surface on how to earn money from that site.


----------



## lewin

The word today is that they're raising the IPO to $38/share, which would value the company at over $100 billion. For that price you could buy McDonalds, Disney, or Visa. Also today, an AP poll says half of Americans think facebook is a "passing fad". Can anybody tell me they'd really rather own Facebook than those other companies? You could buy RBC and have 30 billion left over.


----------



## andrewf

I've never even thought of clicking on a Facebook ad. It's all 'local ladies' ('escort' services?), weird tip from some mom that makes her look 30 years younger, etc. All irrelevant scams.


----------



## rd_aaron

andrewf said:


> I've never even thought of clicking on a Facebook ad. It's all 'local ladies' ('escort' services?), weird tip from some mom that makes her look 30 years younger, etc. All irrelevant scams.


My ads are all directed towards me. They use info from what I've done on Facebook to generate ads that they believe will interest me. I recently got engaged, so there's usually a couple wedding related ads. There's usually at least one ad about engineering jobs (I'm an Engineer). The rest are ads about music or activities in the city I live in that are generally up my alley.

So the question is, what have you been doing on Facebook?


----------



## Four Pillars

andrewf said:


> I've never even thought of clicking on a Facebook ad. It's all 'local ladies' ('escort' services?), weird tip from some mom that makes her look 30 years younger, etc. All irrelevant scams.


That what's I get too.


----------



## phrenk

I expect that the Facebook IPO will be a catalyst in the social media / online stocks. Could be either a good catalyst and FB will live it to all the hype, or it will be the start of a correction for tech stocks.

It's troublesome when i read articles (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-raise-size-of-ipo-to-421-million-shares.html) stating that the available shares are increased by 25% 2 days prior to the IPO. It appears that many of the existing shareholders are unloading their shares. IE : Goldman increased the number of shares it will sell 2-fold and some hedge fund (Tiger Global) is going to increase it 4-fold.

As for me, i expect this to be the start of correction in certain stocks (Amazon, Salesforce, Linkedin etc). Disclosure : I bought a few puts 2 weeks ago on Amazon.


----------



## HaroldCrump

rd_aaron said:


> My ads are all directed towards me. They use info from what I've done on Facebook to generate ads that they believe will interest me. I recently got engaged, so there's usually a couple wedding related ads. There's usually at least one ad about engineering jobs (I'm an Engineer). The rest are ads about music or activities in the city I live in that are generally up my alley.
> 
> So the question is, what have you been doing on Facebook?


And that is precisely my problem with "social media" personalized advertising.
I know this is all automated and no human being is sitting there and reading your emails/content but I hate to be "used" in this manner.

I read recently somewhere that as far as using online products like e-mail, social media, etc. goes : _if you are not paying for the product, then *you* are the product_.

I would much rather pay for services that I use (like e-mail and search) instead of being used/abused as a constant marketing machine.
I want a model where email providers like Yahoo, Hotmail, etc. can say : pay $X a month in exchange for us not tracking/filtering any of your information and targeting advertising at you.

However, even with the pay-for-service models that exist today with Yahoo etc. you pay and STILL get tracked and spammed.


----------



## kcowan

The $10 million that GM will save is part of a $40 million effort to use the social media. So it appears that the actual $ are just a drop in the bucket. The fact that insiders are stepping up their sales of shares into the IPO seems to be a bad sign.

FB must be pretty good about targetting if they have not presented any ads to me...


----------



## Four Pillars

kcowan said:


> FB must be pretty good about targetting if they have not presented any ads to me...


Haha.

I've thought that FB is under monetized and would make more money by offering more services/more ads etc. However, I read today that FB makes $5/user per year. This isn't bad at all considering a lot of users are pretty infrequent.

Most FB users are there for a social reason, not a business reason which is why I don't think there is a lot of money to be made from them. People who use search engines on the other hand are often looking for something in connection to commerce (ie comparison of two different products) and a lot more money can be made from the average search engine visitor.

Unless people start to use FB as a search engine, I can't see how they will increase their $/user significantly.


----------



## the-royal-mail

I completely agree with Harold. Some websites do have a user-pay option but many of these still track you with beacons and other spyware installed on your computer. I try to keep as much of my stuff with my ISP as possible (email for instance) as they are not doing the same kind of invasive tracking that "free" web based email does. Some of these email providers clearly state that they track and read your msgs, yet people still flock to them.

Some people are pacified simply with a smooth and easy looking interface.


----------



## brad

Four Pillars said:


> Most FB users are there for a social reason, not a business reason which is why I don't think there is a lot of money to be made from them.


Maybe I'm not a typical FB user, but I actually have more businesses and organizations on my "like" list than I have friends in FB. I actually find FB to be a very useful way to keep up with the businesses I frequent and order from: for example, over the weekend a shop here in town that I buy my tea from was having a 20% off sale and I never would have known if it weren't for Facebook.

The basic idea is that FB becomes a one-stop shop: you meet your friends there but you also do your shopping and get your news there. It's not there yet but seems to be evolving in that direction.


----------



## Four Pillars

brad said:


> Maybe I'm not a typical FB user, but I actually have more businesses and organizations on my "like" list than I have friends in FB. I actually find FB to be a very useful way to keep up with the businesses I frequent and order from: for example, over the weekend a shop here in town that I buy my tea from was having a 20% off sale and I never would have known if it weren't for Facebook.
> 
> The basic idea is that FB becomes a one-stop shop: you meet your friends there but you also do your shopping and get your news there. It's not there yet but seems to be evolving in that direction.


That's interesting - maybe FB uses are more business oriented than I thought.

Even if they aren't now, perhaps over time the 'one-stop shop' mindset will become more common, which would bode very well for FB.


----------



## brad

Four Pillars said:


> Even if they aren't now, perhaps over time the 'one-stop shop' mindset will become more common, which would bode very well for FB.


And its competitors. This might be an area where Google+ could exploit more effectively than Facebook, although virtually none of the businesses I follow on Facebook have made it onto Google+ yet. 

I wouldn't underestimate the draw of having just one place to go for everything -- instead of using email and visiting dozens of websites to get information, people can go to one place. RSS aggregators do the same thing on the information side, but they haven't caught on in a big way; I use RSS aggregators to get my news but almost nobody else I know uses them and most people I know haven't even heard of RSS. But everyone knows about Facebook.


----------



## Four Pillars

brad said:


> And its competitors. This might be an area where Google+ could exploit more effectively than Facebook, although virtually none of the businesses I follow on Facebook have made it onto Google+ yet.
> 
> I wouldn't underestimate the draw of having just one place to go for everything -- instead of using email and visiting dozens of websites to get information, people can go to one place. RSS aggregators do the same thing on the information side, but they haven't caught on in a big way; I use RSS aggregators to get my news but almost nobody else I know uses them and most people I know haven't even heard of RSS. But everyone knows about Facebook.


Some good points. Yes, FB certainly has the momentum and size to create this sort of thing.

My problem with getting news etc from FB is that I'm afraid to click on anything there. It seems like friends get hacked regularly and for legit things, FB wants you to sign up for some app and I have no idea what stupid thing they will do (ie update your timeline everytime you use the service).


----------



## kcowan

I use LinkedIn for business networking and have done so since the 90s. All my friends have FB accounts. They just never use them. I go on FB a couple of times a week. It also has a good interface for my smart phone so I tend to go there while filling time. Of course, I do not do much typing from the smart phone.


----------



## K-133

HaroldCrump said:


> And that is precisely my problem with "social media" personalized advertising.
> I know this is all automated and no human being is sitting there and reading your emails/content but I hate to be "used" in this manner.
> 
> I read recently somewhere that as far as using online products like e-mail, social media, etc. goes : _if you are not paying for the product, then *you* are the product_.
> 
> I would much rather pay for services that I use (like e-mail and search) instead of being used/abused as a constant marketing machine.
> I want a model where email providers like Yahoo, Hotmail, etc. can say : pay $X a month in exchange for us not tracking/filtering any of your information and targeting advertising at you.
> 
> However, even with the pay-for-service models that exist today with Yahoo etc. you pay and STILL get tracked and spammed.


What do I lose by being 'the product'? If I'm having a conversation about buying a sink, and an add pops up with deals on sinks is that really a bad thing? I'll be marketed to no matter what, I'd prefer hearing about that which matters to me than a bunch of noise about what doesn't. Do you prefer the to watch Tampax ads on TV?


With that - I really don't see how a company that pulls in as little as they do relative to their competitors is worth anything near $100B. Is there room to grow? Definitely. To match Google's ad revenue as an example, they need to grow nearly 20 fold. A serious challenge for a product which so bounded. Facebook needs to inverse the formula people use to access their product from Internet -> Facebook to Facebook -> Internet before I think they can grow enough to catch up to the justification of being worth $100B.


----------



## kcowan

Four Pillars said:


> My problem with getting news etc from FB is that I'm afraid to click on anything there. It seems like friends get hacked regularly and for legit things, FB wants you to sign up for some app and I have no idea what stupid thing they will do (ie update your timeline everytime you use the service).


I get invited to join apps all the time. I just ignore them. Same with games. I have suppressed all Farmville notices. I also ignore updates from many people who do not interested me. This is a setting. Like ignore users here.

So I guess the power of FB is that anyone can use it the way they want. That is good. But unless you are a glutton for punishment, there is no way they can make any money to justify $100 billion market cap. (1/5th the size of Apple)

Also, the non-voting shares means that a 28 year-old (dishonest) kid gets to decide the future of the company.

For Marina's sake, I hope there is a good pop.


----------



## HaroldCrump

the-royal-mail said:


> Some websites do have a user-pay option but many of these still track you with beacons and other spyware installed on your computer. I try to keep as much of my stuff with my ISP as possible (email for instance) as they are not doing the same kind of invasive tracking that "free" web based email does. Some of these email providers clearly state that they track and read your msgs, yet people still flock to them.


I would like a new market to be made for this type of personal-information-in-exchange-for-service.
i.e. it costs $X for email without advertising, it costs $Y for email without tracking, and so on.

Similarly, consumers should be able to "pay" in terms of personal information for services such as email, social networking, searching, etc.
That will make these services more transparent for the end consumer.
There are many users of recreational Internet services these days (such as social media) who are not aware of the magnitude of personal information capturing and tracking.

The service providers are running an Internet in 2012, while most users still believe it is 1998.


----------



## brad

Four Pillars said:


> My problem with getting news etc from FB is that I'm afraid to click on anything there. It seems like friends get hacked regularly and for legit things, FB wants you to sign up for some app and I have no idea what stupid thing they will do (ie update your timeline everytime you use the service).


I don't use any apps for that reason. But you can get news and updates from businesses and organizations just by "liking" them so they appear in your news feed. I've never had any problems arise from that. I have always refused to install apps, including social reader apps. I agree that it's not really a great place to get news at this point. But for me it's the best way to keep on top of offers and news from businesses and stores -- I just "like" them and any announcements they post appear in my news feed.


----------



## brad

HaroldCrump said:


> I would like a new market to be made for this type of personal-information-in-exchange-for-service.
> i.e. it costs $X for email without advertising, it costs $Y for email without tracking, and so on.


Quite a few companies have been offering this option for years. I remember that Eudora, the now-defunct email program for Windows and Mac had an ad-supported version and a paid version with no ads. In fact the Canadian Money Forum uses a similar model, except that no money is involved -- if you want to view content without ads, you have to sign up as a member. Try looking at this forum sometime without logging in - every post has advertisements in it.


----------



## HaroldCrump

brad said:


> Quite a few companies have been offering this option for years. I remember that Eudora, the now-defunct email program for Windows and Mac had an ad-supported version and a paid version with no ads. In fact the Canadian Money Forum uses a similar model, except that no money is involved -- if you want to view content without ads, you have to sign up as a member. Try looking at this forum sometime without logging in - every post has advertisements in it.


But these ads are user agnostic, no?
i.e. no personal behavior is being tracked.
No personal data within the user's profile or the user's personal messages is being leveraged for targeted marketing.

Dumb advertising is one thing, and is similar to TV and Radio advertising.
However, "smart" advertising and tracking, storing, and leveraging user behavior and personal data is what I am talking about.
There are scores of tracking programs out there these days (including Google, and now Facebook) that follow a user around and keep track of their behavior, clicks, interest patterns, attention span, etc.
As a consumer, I want a price attached to that.


----------



## Four Pillars

HaroldCrump said:


> There are scores of tracking programs out there these days (including Google, and now Facebook) that follow a user around and keep track of their behavior, clicks, interest patterns, attention span, etc.
> As a consumer, I want a price attached to that.


There is. You exchange your behavior info in exchange for free services (ie FB, email) that would otherwise cost money.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Four Pillars said:


> There is. You exchange your behavior info in exchange for free services (ie FB, email) that would otherwise cost money.


Right, but what is missing is a monetary price for that.
That is, what do I have to pay to use the service without each of these tracking "features".

The same model is there for TV and Radio advertising.
If you want to watch movies without advertising the cost is $19 for a DVD or $10 for a Netflix membership or $5.99 for a Pay-Per-View on Cable (for example).
If you want to listen to news or music on the radio without advertising, the cost is $10 a month for XM Radio.

What can I pay to Google for not tracking me as I search for content and navigate from site to site?
What can I pay Yahoo to not scan my emails and offer me "personalized" advertising?
What can I pay to all these clowns not to sell my usage and behavior information to marketers?


----------



## Four Pillars

HaroldCrump said:


> What can I pay to all these clowns not to sell my usage and behavior information to marketers?


Unfortunately, not too many of the "pay" options exist. I think most people like "free" stuff on the internet and either don't know or don't care if they are actually paying a price with their privacy.

Look at how popular the various 'rewards' programs ie AirMiles have been. They work the same way.


----------



## andrewf

I'm relatively unfussed about service providers using information about me to target ads. I don't want them sharing non-anonymized information with third parties, or abusing that information. I've heard stories about Amazon offering worse prices to people based on their perceived price sensitivity than they offer to a customer without tracking. Not sure if that is true, but if it were it would make me more reticent to let Amazon follow my purchasing history.


----------



## HaroldCrump

^ and it is for these types of reasons that there has to be full disclosure and transparency around what information is tracked, what is saved, how it is used, and who it is shared with.
Until then, I either do not use these "products", use them anonymously, or use them to the minimum level required to meet my needs.


----------



## marina628

kcowan said:


> I get invited to join apps all the time. I just ignore them. Same with games. I have suppressed all Farmville notices. I also ignore updates from many people who do not interested me. This is a setting. Like ignore users here.
> 
> So I guess the power of FB is that anyone can use it the way they want. That is good. But unless you are a glutton for punishment, there is no way they can make any money to justify $100 billion market cap. (1/5th the size of Apple)
> 
> Also, the non-voting shares means that a 28 year-old (dishonest) kid gets to decide the future of the company.
> 
> For Marina's sake, I hope there is a good pop.


Don't worry about Marina  I am only putting in $5000 and have a slush fund for my gambling


----------



## kcowan

marina628 said:


> Don't worry about Marina  I am only putting in $5000 and have a slush fund for my gambling


I hesitate to guess how big your slush fund is! Probably bigger than most participants portfolios here. Here are your first shares:


----------



## marina628

I have more than usual now as I was playing and saving for few months for my WSOP money($50,000) but cannot go now because of my brother's illness.Love the certificate and I bet 50% is true , not sure on the pulled pork but my dream one day is for us to do a rib fest bbq tour through USA lol


----------



## Four Pillars

marina628 said:


> my dream one day is for us to do a rib fest bbq tour through USA lol


rib fest tour - please take me with you!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

*Facebook*

wow
aapl is valued at what 500 billion if i am not wrong and FB will be valued at 100 billion?
ya gotta be kidding me.
i wish i could short this right out of the gate.:hopelessness:


----------



## Just a Guy

Yeah, starting at 100 billion, making peanuts (relatively speaking)...everyone talking about future value...and people wonder why they lose money in the stock market.

I wouldn't worry too much though, it will probably go up for the first couple of days, so you should have time to short...then, the guys who pumped it will begin shorting it, making a killing both ways.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

in all honesty i never shorted an IPO .
i do not think u can do it in the first trading days.
will call my broker tomorrow.
cheers.
where is GOB to read this one?
20% of AAPL value , what a joke.


----------



## Just a Guy

I wouldn't short the iPo I bet it will go up out of the gate, then people will realize they need to go to 200 billion to double their money...but the hype and dream will fuel a large transfer of wealth to Zuckerberg and friends. You'd think Americans would be tired of giving their money to Goldman sacks....


----------



## doctrine

This will be a trading stock, but everyone should remember Facebook does make money. They don't make a lot, but they're not going anywhere. There will be hundreds of millions of stocks on the market, so it will be liquid. Should be interesting to watch. 

Shorts are dangerous, because your liability is unlimited. You could have shorted Amazon 2 years ago when it had a P/E of 100, like Facebook, only to watch it go to a P/E of 200 and you have a 100% loss on your hands.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

u are absolutely right.
but i will closely watch this IPO.


----------



## Just a Guy

Well, if Apple, which I personally think is overvalued at 500 billion (I like the company, but I can't believe it's the most valuable company in the world) and makes billions every quarter, how can one say, with a straight face, that Facebook, which makes less than 725 million in a year, is worth anywhere near 100 billion? 

It may be worth 100 billion some day, but how can you think it's worth it today? Unless you're already a shareholder.


----------



## marina628

I agree with Doctrine it is a trading stock , I will be holding mine like a hot potato and will probably sell it quickly.


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> I agree with Doctrine it is a trading stock , I will be holding mine like a hot potato and will probably sell it quickly.


Absolutely a trading stock at this point and exactly my plan, to sell it quickly, especially on a Friday!


----------



## Dopplegangerr

so what you are going to try and day trade it Tgal?


----------



## avrex

FB shares are expected to be released for trading at approx. 11 am. (There is no exact time. It will not be at the opening bell.)


----------



## Spudd

I feel like a gambler today, so I threw my hat in the ring with a limit order. We'll see!


----------



## Four Pillars

The Globe & Mail is a having a live feed/chat on FB. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ive-coverage-of-facebooks-ipo/article2436745/

I may not like buying individual stocks, but I can't help get caught up in the excitement of a big IPO.

Anyone want to make predictions? I think it will go up 23% today.


----------



## Toronto.gal

I predict 62%. It will start trading at 11.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Yes Dopplegangerr, I'll just day-trade it for now!

I might trade it again on Monday and so on, but not holding any hype, and never on a Friday anyway!


----------



## HaroldCrump

My brokerage (iTrade) is not accepting any type of orders before it begins trading on the exchange.
And no pre-market or extended hours orders either (yet).
So the only way is to prepare a market order and have it ready for as soon as it starts trading.


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

$50 when it opens. People are going crazy for this stock. I'm happy watching from the sidelines (as usual).


----------



## HaroldCrump

$50 open was exactly my estimate for the open too.
My wife is thinking it'll hit at least $80 at some point today.

I should also ask my spaniel for his estimate, apparently even he is interested.


----------



## killuminati

Where can you see the price?


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

HaroldCrump said:


> I should also ask my spaniel for his estimate, apparently even he is interested.


That's too funny. Sums up the mood around this stock perfectly.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The hype is not new, but fun to watch and trade for sure! 

Just look how DANG [$29.91 versus $16.00 IPO pricing] and YOKU [$33.44 versus IPO pricing $12.80] did on opening day and also look where they are now.

http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:DANG
http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:YOKU

The hype was not anywhere near that what we have seen with FB, so it is hard to predict the stock's closing price, but over $100 would not surprise me.


----------



## Spudd

I put in a limit order for $45, so if CC is right about $50 I guess I'll be sitting this one out.


----------



## rd_aaron

Spudd said:


> I put in a limit order for $45, so if CC is right about $50 I guess I'll be sitting this one out.


Ditto.


----------



## webber22

Wouldn't be surprised to see some circuit breakers kick in to halt the stock as it moves up


----------



## HaroldCrump

I thought the circuit breakers only work down, not up.
Why would you want to break an upswing in a stock, however large.


----------



## onomatopoeia

first trade at 45?

http://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-first-stock-trade-2012-5


----------



## Toronto.gal

$42.19; a quick jump down from $42.99.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Open at $45, currently at $42.
Where is the feeding frenzy?


----------



## kcowan

Trading at $40.50 and trending down - 11:30 EDT


----------



## Toronto.gal

About to hit below $40; am I glad I placed my order at $38.50/$39.50/$40.50, but never thinking I would have a chance, lol.

Increasing one's price could be done at any time, not so the other way around.

There appears to be resistance at $40.01. :chuncky:


----------



## Spudd

I cancelled my order before it got filled once I saw what was going on with the price. Too scary for me, I'm out!


----------



## larry81

hahahah failbook


----------



## HaroldCrump

$38.50, all your three tranches must now be filled, T.Gal.
Time to prepare the limit sell, and start praying.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I am in for 40 at $40


----------



## Toronto.gal

Folks are laughing at the valuation....about to go below IPO price.


----------



## rd_aaron

Spudd said:


> I cancelled my order before it got filled once I saw what was going on with the price. Too scary for me, I'm out!


Lol, ditto again.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> $38.50, all your three tranches must now be filled, T.Gal.
> Time to prepare the limit sell, and start praying.


Nope, when I saw the drop from $42.99 to $42.19, I changed to $33. :chuncky:

I have quick fingers, have you not noticed that yet?! :biggrin:


----------



## humble_pie

larry81 said:


> hahahah failbook


failbook - i love it


----------



## Toronto.gal

Dopplegangerr said:


> I am in for 40 at $40


Why did you not lower your price if you saw it drop from the mid $40's?


----------



## phrenk

Facebook was able to bring down all 3 us indices into the red after trading was started. LinkedIn is down by 5%.

Doesn't bode well.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Toronto.gal said:


> Why did you not lower your price if you saw it drop from the mid $40's?


My (soon to be) Wife wanted something to eat. So I had to step away...


----------



## larry81

yahoo finance replaced the DOW with FB on their frontpage...
http://finance.yahoo.com/

what a flaming turd !


----------



## humble_pie

Dopplegangerr said:


> My (soon to be) Wife wanted something to eat. So I had to step away...



dopple you gotta learn from this


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I think I am going to get out. This is freaking me out. I dont mind volatility in companies I actually believe in but....


----------



## Dopplegangerr

LOL I am out at $40.46, I covered my expenses and made around $10 haha
I thought it was just going to climb out of the gate, that shocked me big time..... Maybe I am not ready for this kinda thing yet


----------



## Toronto.gal

Dopplegangerr: you can get out on the + side now [it was $40.50]. 

Next time you step away, lower your order & no need to freak out; you bought 40 shares, not 400 & did not lose any money.


----------



## HaroldCrump

The $10 can buy your fiance a fairly decent sandwitch for lunch ;o)


----------



## jmlz1987

Who's in at what right now? Thinking of placing a limit order for 35.00 @ 50 shares.

Seems like the short game is about to be played.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

HaroldCrump said:


> The $10 can buy your fiance a fairly decent sandwitch for lunch ;o)


Excellent idea, saves me from cooking lol


----------



## humble_pie

Dopplegangerr said:


> LOL I am out at $40.46, I covered my expenses and made around $10 haha



how come only $10 for the round trip, the absolute max you should be paying in commish is $30 per trade which would have been enough for fast lunch to go for 2 ...

anyhow next time no eating during an ipo.


----------



## Toronto.gal

humble_pie said:


> anyhow next time no eating during an ipo.


As usual, great advice!

$41.50.


----------



## HaroldCrump

No food, nature breaks, or any kind of activities allowed for day traders between the hrs. of 9:30 am and 4:00 pm EST. Period.


----------



## Toronto.gal

Volume: *300882929*

Right Harold!


----------



## avrex

Just traded over lunch hour
[12:01pm/12:56pm]
[email protected] [39.70/40.75]

A nice $500 while I ate my lunch.


----------



## humble_pie

when my son was in high school he eventually told me he could never pee. Apparently he was ok from leaving the house at 7:45 until he got home or some place other than school at 4 pm.

why not, i asked.

the boys bathroom at school is disgusting, he said.


----------



## Toronto.gal

In at $40.01 & just sold for $41.50 at 12:57. 

Will wait for a drop and try again with profits + returned capital!


----------



## avrex

Toronto.gal said:


> In at $40.01 & just sold for $41.50 at 12:57.


I just checked my sell time stamp 12:55:36 @40.75. Amazing volatility. A minute or two later, you sell for that much higher.
Nice return to both of us.


----------



## Toronto.gal

avrex said:


> I just checked my sell time stamp 12:55:36 @40.75. Amazing volatility. A minute or two later, you sell for that much higher.
> Nice return to both of us.


Yes, the volatility is good enough for trading; something tells me that I'll be able to trade a few times before the day is over & pay just 2 commissions [1 for all buys, and 1 for all sells].

Should have let the $38.50 order fill, but never mind. 

I expected a big sell-off early on, but the volatility is not as high as I had expected [from prior IPO experiences].


----------



## ddkay

Which broker are you with Tgal?


----------



## Toronto.gal

The one that everyone seems to love around here; can you guess? CM. :love-struck:


----------



## ddkay

Thanks


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> In at $40.01 & just sold for $41.50 at 12:57.
> 
> Will wait for a drop and try again with profits + returned capital!


nice job girl:encouragement:
i am not trading it though.
why did u not place a mkt order when it was hovering around 38bux?
i never traded an IPO, just watching the algos:biggrin:


----------



## HaroldCrump

$41.51 - moving back up again.
Let the feeding frenzy begin....


----------



## Toronto.gal

moneyisfornothing said:


> why did u not place a mkt order when it was hovering around 38bux?


I had initially placed 3 limit orders in advance and $38.50 was one of them, but when the stock dropped from the mid $40's into the high $30's in a hurry, I was not sure how much more it would drop, so I lowered my price to $33 [wishful thinking, however not impossible I thought]. 

Anyway, I hesitated as I had NOT gotten the right volatility feel, but hey, a profit is a profit & I'm about to get another one fill under $40.


----------



## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> $41.51 - moving back up again.
> Let the feeding frenzy begin....


$40.65 at 1:56; waiting for another $40.01 or better!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> I had initially placed 3 limit orders in advance and $38.50 was one of them, but when the stock dropped from the mid $40's into the high $30's in a hurry, I was not sure how much more it would drop, so I lowered my price to $33 [wishful thinking, however not impossible I thought].
> 
> Anyway, I hesitated as I had NOT gotten the right volatility feel, but hey, a profit is a profit & I'm about to get another one fill under $40.



i fully agree
i would be placing mkt orders in ur case but level2 is crucial for this though:encouragement:

off topic
in the meantime mkt is cracking apart but the almighty FB will save us lol.
anyweay GL in ur trading


----------



## ddkay

This market is weak... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...said-to-support-stock-at-near-38-a-share.html


----------



## Dopplegangerr

HaroldCrump said:


> No food, nature breaks, or any kind of activities allowed for day traders between the hrs. of 9:30 am and 4:00 pm EST. Period.


Now I know.....


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> I had initially placed 3 limit orders in advance and $38.50 was one of them, but when the stock dropped from the mid $40's into the high $30's in a hurry, I was not sure how much more it would drop, so I lowered my price to $33 [wishful thinking, however not impossible I thought].
> 
> Anyway, I hesitated as I had NOT gotten the right volatility feel, but hey, a profit is a profit & I'm about to get another one fill under $40.


sooooo did u get it at 1:50 p.m?:hopelessness:
lowest low of 39.09


----------



## Toronto.gal

Almost did at $40.01, but not yet. Trying for the IPO pricing, or better since there is a downtrend now!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> Almost did at $40.01, but not yet. Trying for the IPO pricing, or better since there is a downtrend now!


i am showing at this very sec 39.01
spx 500 1295.25
boy do i like this round of destruction:encouragement:


----------



## explorer416

I'm with Questrade. I put in a limit order to buy FB this morning and when the opening price was finally revealed, I thought I'd my order would get executed as FB traded for well below my limit price. I kept hitting refresh and nothing happened for a good 20 mins or so, so I actually cancelled my order with the intent of placing a new market order (thinking, I guess that the new transaction would be immediate?). But my cancellation request seems to be stuck! The status remains as "canceling" (and not "canceled"). I couldn't place the new order due to insufficient funds as my funds are all tied up in the sorta-cancelled order. Geez. I spoke with the questrade support people and they explained that Nasdaq is not sending out confirmations on placed orders; my original order may have gone through - there is no way to know at the moment. I have no idea if I bought this stock and if so, at what price. All I can do is watch the stock price go up and down and have no idea which way I should be cheering. What a fiasco.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

explorer416 said:


> I'm with Questrade. I put in a limit order to buy FB this morning and when the opening price was finally revealed, I thought I'd my order would get executed as FB traded for well below my limit price. I kept hitting refresh and nothing happened for a good 20 mins or so, so I actually cancelled my order with the intent of placing a new market order (thinking, I guess that the new transaction would be immediate?). But my cancellation request seems to be stuck! The status remains as "canceling" (and not "canceled"). I couldn't place the new order due to insufficient funds as my funds are all tied up in the sorta-cancelled order. Geez. I spoke with the questrade support people and they explained that Nasdaq is not sending out confirmations on placed orders; my original order may have gone through - there is no way to know at the moment. I have no idea if I bought this stock and if so, at what price. All I can do is watch the stock price go up and down and have no idea which way I should be cheering. What a fiasco.


at what price was the order for if u do not mind me asking ya?


----------



## ddkay

Nanex is documenting the delayed quotes issue, you can see them beginning to show up around 12:30

http://www.nanex.net/aqck/3099.html


----------



## Toronto.gal

explorer416 said:


> my original order may have gone through - there is no way to know at the moment. I have no idea if I bought this stock and if so, at what price.


What does your transaction history show?

A number of problems today; an IPO like no other I have seen, lol. 

Monday should be interesting.


----------



## explorer416

moneyisfornothing said:


> at what price was the order for if u do not mind me asking ya?


Too many people were scaring me with what the anticipated opening price would be. My limit order was actually for 200 @ $57.50. That $57.50 was really just based on how much available money I had in my account. So now I have $11,500 tied up in this maybe-cancelled order even though the FB price came nowhere near this figure. The questrade support people have said that IF the trade went through it would be for whatever the stock price was between about 11:30 am and 11:50 am or so. So maybe I got today's low? Or maybe something higher? Or maybe nothing at all? The funny thing is that I was going to immediately flip this stock and reuse these funds to buy other stuff that's on sale today. Now all my money is locked up! This is ridiculous.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

38.1 boys an gils and declinining


----------



## moneyisfornothing

57.5:hopelessness:?
holy **** are u nuts bra.
no offense though.
wish ya luck


----------



## Four Pillars

explorer416 said:


> Too many people were scaring me with what the anticipated opening price would be. My limit order was actually for 200 @ $57.50. That $57.50 was really just based on how much available money I had in my account. So now I have $11,500 tied up in this maybe-cancelled order even though the FB price came nowhere near this figure. The questrade support people have said that IF the trade went through it would be for whatever the stock price was between about 11:30 am and 11:50 am or so. So maybe I got today's low? Or maybe something higher? Or maybe nothing at all? The funny thing is that I was going to immediately flip this stock and reuse these funds to buy other stuff that's on sale today. Now all my money is locked up! This is ridiculous.


I think there were a lot of people who were surprised with the problems that happened today. 

Learning experience for most....


----------



## explorer416

Toronto.gal said:


> What does your transaction history show?.


Nothing related to FB in the Executions section of QuestraderWeb. A bunch of Rejected Buy FB orders (due to insufficent funds) follow my still "Canceling" order in my Account History section of QuestraderWeb. Not a happy camper here.


----------



## explorer416

moneyisfornothing said:


> 57.5:hopelessness:?
> holy **** are u nuts bra.
> no offense though.
> wish ya luck


No offense taken. While I now hate all of FB, Questrade, and Nasdaq, I hold no ill well against you.


----------



## Toronto.gal

explorer416 said:


> 1. Too many people were scaring me with what the anticipated opening price would be.
> 2. My limit order was actually for 200 @ $57.50.


1. No blaming other people, only YOU are responsible for what you do.
2. I don't want to make you feel worse, but that was a blind trade.

Anyway, I do hope your order was cancelled in time.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

now it is a train wreck .broke below 38.
anyways i am just watching it.
i really hope nothing got filled for your sake.
GL


----------



## avrex

The underwriters are supporting it at 38.00. Well at least for now.

Eventually it will fall lower. Perhaps, first thing next week


----------



## ddkay

Possibly before the close. That wall of bids at 38.00 is coming down pretty fast now.


----------



## Spidey

I heard on the radio today that FB is currently valued higher than MacDonalds. Too rich for my blood.


----------



## avrex

@explorer416
My guess is that you now own FB at around 42.00. 

What a mess with the trade confirmations.


----------



## larry81

The WALL OF BIDS at 38.00 ahahaha

Well it was fun to watch


----------



## Toronto.gal

avrex said:


> Eventually it will fall lower. Perhaps, first thing next week


Should be an interesting week. 

Very strange IPO debut compared to the others.


----------



## Dopplegangerr

So what did every one make today off of FB?


----------



## avrex

Dopplegangerr said:


> So what did every one make today off of FB?


I was in and out over the lunch hour. + $500.

Oversupply. Watch for the price to drop next week.


----------



## moneyisfornothing




----------



## Toronto.gal

Dopplegangerr said:


> So what did every one make today off of FB?


More than you. :biggrin:

$1.49 per share.


----------



## ddkay

larry81 said:


> The WALL OF BIDS at 38.00 ahahaha


----------



## andrewf

larry81 said:


> hahahah failbook


I call it facepalm.


----------



## GOB

Fear and greed. Take advantage of the fear and greed in the markets but don't get sucked in yourself.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

GOB said:


> Fear and greed. Take advantage of the fear and greed in the markets but don't get sucked in yourself.


here is the man i wanted to show up on the thread.
can u believe they want to value this at 100 billion?
wow


----------



## HaroldCrump

Spidey said:


> I heard on the radio today that FB is currently valued higher than MacDonalds. Too rich for my blood.


You mean too fatty for your blood


----------



## Four Pillars

Letter from Mark Z. Reasonably amusing.
http://www.borowitzreport.com/2012/05/17/a-letter-from-mark-zuckerberg/


----------



## GOB

moneyisfornothing said:


> here is the man i wanted to show up on the thread.
> can u believe they want to value this at 100 billion?
> wow


It's insane. At the same time I know better than to short it - I'm simply going to let it be and go with much more sure things. I have a strong hunch that web advertising and all companies that rely on it for the majority of their revenue is the next bubble to pop. 

A good strategy if you are weary about the market in general is to buy some long term puts on stuff that is absurdly valued like AMZN, LNKD, FB etc while staying long on undervalued equities. The high multiple stocks valued based on future earnings estimates will drop much further than those companies already bringing in the cash.


----------



## andrewf

Given how vigorously the IPO price was defended by the underwriters, I am not sure it is a sign that stock is due to pop over the coming days.


----------



## Daenerys Targaryen

hey explorer416, I feel your pain, I also trade with Questrade and I was planning on trading FB today expecting high volatility.....but i was crippled with delays and orders that took hours to cancel...what a disaster.

oh well, tis life...did your order end up being filled?


----------



## praire_guy

This time it's different. 

Bigger than mc Donald's ? Wow. I have never clicked any ads on Facebook. Nobody I know has. I am leery.


----------



## indexxx

Faceplant!! Glad I heeded my instincts and stayed on the sidelines for this one... hope nobody here got too burned.


----------



## kcowan

The question I have is: "will anyone here play this stock if it drops below $38?"


----------



## marina628

Got mine filled for $38.00 no plan of action yet.


----------



## PMREdmonton

I can easily see this thing quickly trading down into the high teens on a bad earnings report. They aren't quickly gaining new numbers anymore and don't generate much revenues or profits off their existing base of users. Allegedly they have 900M users but only generated a profit of $1B last year. 

Their problem is they can't monetize like Google can. Google can get advertisers what they want - they can connect users who are searching for something and then match ads for things that they might be interested in buying. They can generate clicks and those clicks can generate sales. With TV and newspaper ads falling and internet ads increasing Google should see a steady rise in earnings over the years as this long-term secular trends plays out. Facebook just doesn't have the same type of interaction with its users so they won't be able to follow Google's model. They'll have to invent their own. They won't be able to sell subscriptions - as soon as they try everyone will leave for Google+ or something else.

I think it could be a good short as the masses don't appear to be interested in bidding it up on opening day. With technical resistance already breached at 38 it could fall a long way as insiders try to unload their overpriced stock in a panic.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

can i short it yet?:biggrin:


----------



## Toronto.gal

kcowan said:


> The question I have is: "will anyone here play this stock if it drops below $38?"


Sure, why not? [trade, not hold].


----------



## dotnet_nerd

Toronto.gal said:


> Sure, why not? [trade, not hold].


It's a valid question. I checked on Friday and there was no short inventory available for much of the day.

Hey, what's that hissing sound? Could it be the air leaking out of this pump-n-dump-of-the-decade POS?
Down nearly 5% pre-market. Uh-oh :hopelessness:


----------



## moneyisfornothing

FACEBOOK










can i short it yet?:biggrin:


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Already down to $35.10


----------



## Dopplegangerr

And now at $33.06 This is messed up, I wonder what Mark Zuckerberg thinking right now.
Where is the bottom on this thing?


----------



## kcowan

Dopplegangerr said:


> I wonder what Mark Zuckerberg thinking right now.


Isn't he on his honeymoon?


> Where is the bottom on this thing?


That is the $64k question! Anyone holding it? Marina, where will you jump off?


----------



## Dibs

If FB is revalued at a more reasonable price to earnings ratio, lets say 20, then the price could drop below $10.

Facebook:
Trailing 12-Month EPS: $0.43

Stock price valued at a P/E of 20 = EPS * P/E = $0.43 * 20 = $8.60

Data from this article


----------



## davext

I just noticed today that i received 100 shares of FB at $38.15 in my Questrade account. I put in an order in the morning on Friday for 100 shares but then I cancelled it before it was filled in the morning. I noticed that the order was filled at 4:31pm on Friday. What the hell is that? Can I give those shares back?


----------



## marina628

I am not worried about it so doing nothing.GRPN gave me a good profits this month as i sold what i bought for $9.99 for $13.80 .I am looking at grpn again this week ,I missed it for $11 this morning .easy to make 15% on that stock in few days .


----------



## marina628

system may have updated at 4:31 but the shares may have been filled in the morning.This has happened with me at TDW before.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

damn IPO .
my broker did not allow me to short it.
oh well there is always something else to be shorted.
100 billion dollars value.
u have got to be kiddin me.
this would have been my best short ever in a one day trade.
GL bagholders


----------



## doctrine

I would say that a P/E of even 30 would be reasonably fair for Facebook. But thats still pricing the shares near $10. However, I suspect that it won't be long before the IPO price is seen again.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

marina628 said:


> I am not worried about it so doing nothing.GRPN gave me a good profits this month as i sold what i bought for $9.99 for $13.80 .I am looking at grpn again this week ,I missed it for $11 this morning .easy to make 15% on that stock in few days .


easy to make 15% on GRPN.
would u care to teach me how do u make 15% easily on it?
just curious here.
TIA


----------



## moneyisfornothing

doctrine said:


> I would say that a P/E of even 30 would be reasonably fair for Facebook. But thats still pricing the shares near $10. However, I suspect that it won't be long before the IPO price is seen again.


not denying the possiblw 38 bux again whatsoever.
but for an IPO to trade on volume the second day at this level?
neveretheless the company is not worth 100 billion.
i would buy AAPl in a heartbeat instead of this stock.
like i said i wish i could have shorted it right out of the gate.
on the note todays rallys strength impressed me .... but look at financials:rolleyes2:
i actually said a day or 2 ago..... don't be surprised if we seee a "rally" today:tongue-new:


----------



## PMREdmonton

doctrine said:


> I would say that a P/E of even 30 would be reasonably fair for Facebook. But thats still pricing the shares near $10. However, I suspect that it won't be long before the IPO price is seen again.


It depends on many factors. One thing to consider is that large growth stocks tend to struggle to get large multiples. So even if FB moves up in earnings they are already a $100B stock so lots of future earnings growth is anticipated. If they grow earnings 24%/yr for 6 years their PE would still be 25. However, recent earnings momentum has been shrinking and FB advertising just doesn't appear to generate nearly as many high quality clicks as Google. They will need to monetize in a different way. Some people think they can do it in consumer fields but I really don't want to be notified about what kind of jeans my friend bought online and I don't really think they would want to tell me that either online. Maybe they might mention it in conversation but certainly not online. I actually find most FB entries to be pointless and really wish that I hadn't signed up for the service.

OTOH, Google is invaluable to me on a daily basis and has found me many things I want to buy through their ads or through their search.

I really think FB is going to quickly get shaved down to a 30 multiple before too long which would put the stock around 12. I think that would be a reasonable valuation.


----------



## Mall Guy

Dopplegangerr said:


> I wonder what Mark Zuckerberg thinking right now.


"shoots, scores!"


----------



## rd_aaron

davext said:


> I just noticed today that i received 100 shares of FB at $38.15 in my Questrade account. I put in an order in the morning on Friday for 100 shares but then I cancelled it before it was filled in the morning. I noticed that the order was filled at 4:31pm on Friday. What the hell is that? Can I give those shares back?


There was a message on Questrade on Friday saying that if your order status said cancelled - pending (or something like that... hadn't completed the cancel) your order may have gotten filled. You were supposed to check this morning to see if the order went through or not. There was such a high volume of orders for FB that it caused delays in timing for the cancellations and filling of orders. I think you're out of luck unfortunately. Better pick a good time to get out.


----------



## Spudd

moneyisfornothing said:


> would u care to teach me how do u make 15% easily on it?
> just curious here.
> TIA


Why is it that you ask others to teach you their ways but you refuse to teach others your ways? The other day Eclectic asked you how you found the bottoms and you just mumbled something about how he couldn't read a chart, and stochastics, without saying anything useful.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

i do not think u actually understand my statement:rolleyes2:
p.s
by the way i think i was cut and clear on my explanation to the member u are mentioning.
actually if u think there was nothing usefulll on my explanation , i can only say........wow
i even called today's rally .... on another post after the G8 meeting.
if u are a trader u would have gone long today right out of the gate in some stocks and made good coin.
i was just surprised at the rally level.
as for volume , do not even go there.
i was counting more like 70 points on DJIA , not intraday and the spx another 10 points up.
either way sir GLTY


----------



## Eclectic12

Argonaut said:


> [ ... ]
> 
> Speaking from my generation's perspective, it's something that is used every day by everybody. I had a conversation with my buddy today in that we were puzzled why a certain girl didn't use Facebook. Whether or not anybody clicks on the ads, I don't know.


I guess it depends on who you are and who your friends are. I can go a week without missing much that relevant.

Now if I'm getting responses or questions at every second day, that's the rate I'll login.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Spudd said:


> Why is it that you ask others to teach you their ways but you refuse to teach others your ways?
> 
> The other day Eclectic asked you how you found the bottoms and you just mumbled something about how he couldn't read a chart, and stochastics, without saying anything useful.





moneyisfornothing said:


> i do not think u actually understand my statement:rolleyes2:
> p.s
> by the way i think i was cut and clear on my explanation to the member u are mentioning.
> actually if u think there was nothing usefulll on my explanation , i can only say........wow
> 
> [ ... ]



Hmmmm ... this sounds like a mis-quote or confusion.
I don't recall asking about anyone's bottom's recently ... :biggrin:


... though I have no doubt that someone asked ... :rolleyes2:


Or are there more than one Eclectic around here (maybe the answer's on Facebook!) ...


Cheers


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Eclectic12 said:


> Hmmmm ... this sounds like a mis-quote or confusion.
> I don't recall asking about anyone's bottom's recently ... :biggrin:
> 
> 
> ... though I have no doubt that someone asked ... :rolleyes2:
> 
> 
> Or are there more than one Eclectic around here (maybe the answer's on Facebook!) ...
> 
> 
> Cheers



eclectic 
did u ever ask me anything at all?
i don't think so.
these comments came from somewhere else.
they came from the transalta thread.
either way , i have no idea how u got involved in this.
please point it to me.
if u ever asked me i will be glad to give my opinion ... if i can.
cheers


----------



## Spudd

Well, it must have been someone else. I'm not a trader and I never claimed to be, but I just thought your answer in the TA thread was extremely vague and not helpful, and then you ask other people to help you.

I should have known better than to get into this.


----------



## kcowan

rd_aaron said:


> I think you're out of luck unfortunately. Better pick a good time to get out.


I got an untimely fill of my IPO order for THI and it was 7 days before I could sell it. By then I decided to hold. But then it was not overvalued by a factor.


----------



## Eclectic12

moneyisfornothing said:


> eclectic
> did u ever ask me anything at all? i don't think so.
> 
> these comments came from somewhere else.
> they came from the transalta thread.
> either way , i have no idea how u got involved in this.
> please point it to me.
> if u ever asked me i will be glad to give my opinion ... if i can.
> cheers


The reason I got involved was that Spudd wrote:


> The other day _Eclectic_ asked you ...


Which is likely either confusion as to who asked what or something else.
At the time I posted, I didn't realise there are two users with "Eclectic" as part of the user name.

IAC, I was trying to point it I didn't believe it was me, in a tongue-in-cheek way.


Cheers


----------



## Eclectic12

Spudd said:


> Well, it must have been someone else. I'm not a trader and I never claimed to be, but I just thought your answer in the TA thread was extremely vague and not helpful, and then you ask other people to help you.
> 
> I should have known better than to get into this.


From what I can tell from the TA thread, it was a different user:


Moneyisfornothing said:


> bar
> if i was trading that stock..... my buy signal was on may 27 with a low of 15.94.





Barwelle said:


> What was your "buy signal" for April 27th?


 .... not that I'm overly concerned. 


I was just making sure I wasn't missing anything - in what I thought was a joking way.


Cheers


----------



## Spudd

Yup, my bad, it was Barwelle and not you, Eclectic.


----------



## Lephturn

Options on FB go up on May 29th. There should be some very interesting skew when they list. The downside puts are generally bid out of proportion since you have lots of employees trying to protect shares they can't sell until the lockup ends and the stock is hard to borrow. There should be some interesting trades to think about with the crazy downside skew that we will likely see.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Eclectic12 said:


> From what I can tell from the TA thread, it was a different user:
> 
> 
> 
> .... not that I'm overly concerned.
> 
> 
> I was just making sure I wasn't missing anything - in what I thought was a joking way.
> 
> 
> Cheers


its all good eclectic.
by the way TA is just breaking the 17 bux area atm...... interesting right.
i am also not overly concerned.
i guess my time machine is fully functional :tongue-new:
nevertheless i do like this short covering rally.
oh my :chuncky:


----------



## Toronto.gal

moneyisfornothing said:


> i guess my time machine is fully functional :tongue-new:


LOL! Humour is always good!

How about an online money-making machine? Better than a rally and a crystal ball, no? :biggrin:










About how to make 15%, 10%, etc., buy low/sell high*er.* That simple, lol.


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> LOL! Humour is always good!
> 
> How about an online money-making machine? Better than a rally and a crystal ball, no? :biggrin:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> About how to make 15%, 10%, etc., buy low/sell high*er.* That simple, lol.


it sure is .
are those for rental?
how do i get me one:tongue-new:
10-15% sure.... so simple:rolleyes2:


----------



## Toronto.gal

moneyisfornothing said:


> 10-155 sure.... so simple:rolleyes2:


Yes, it is simple, but not so simple on a regular basis. 

Swing-traders have more patience than day-traders and sometimes the patience does pay-off IMO, but a lot depends on the stock! Personally, I would never hold certain stocks more than a few hours, if that!


----------



## moneyisfornothing

Toronto.gal said:


> Yes, it is simple, but not so simple on a regular basis.
> 
> Swing-traders have more patience than day-traders and sometimes the patience does pay-off IMO, but a lot depends on the stock! Personally, I would never hold certain stocks more than a few hours, if that!


fully agree.
take a peak on coal stocks:rolleyes2:
but china will be there to save us.


----------



## HaroldCrump

Now the IPO is being investigated by the regulators.
They also allege that Morgan Stanley analysts were downgrading it, while participating in the IPO.
Ha, this is good entertainment theatre.


----------



## blin10

in at 31$... let's see where it bottoms out


----------



## marina628

Think it will go down another $4-$5 with all this news coming out today.Should have waited to buy but I only have 70 shares so not going to worry.


----------



## Toronto.gal

The gambler only bought 70 shares? :biggrin:

Most had expected the stock to pop, like LNKD, etc., at least on the 1st day, so all that has happened has been 'entertainment' indeed [though not for those who bought & held and for those who were affected by the cancellation delays].

Both you Marina, and blin, have guts to hold this stock. Good luck!

*Harold:* yes, the entertainment continues!

*"Facebook Investor Sues Nasdaq Over Delays In Offering."*

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-22/facebook-investor-sues-nasdaq-over-delays-in-offering.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...moment-begins-with-analysts-30-50-spread.html


----------



## marina628

Yes only 70 shares was planning another move but I know when to fold pointless to sell at loss now with so many possibilities in future.BTW they sell ads by IMPRESSIONS not just clicks , most ad sellers offer pricing both options.So these crappy ads on the side we are ignoring still earn facebook money when we load the page.http://www.facebook.com/business/ads/


----------



## Four Pillars

Here is why I thought the Facebook IPO was a success:

http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/facebook-ipo-success/


----------



## kcowan

Four Pillars said:


> Here is why I thought the Facebook IPO was a success:
> 
> http://www.moneysmartsblog.com/facebook-ipo-success/


Fusion IQ believes that this IPO was essentially a secondary offering because so many shares had already been sold to outsiders. So the opening price enriched those outsiders. The insiders (FB employees) have their 180 day lockup working against them.

What you say makes sense in a traditional IPO though.


----------



## HaroldCrump

and....a slew of lawsuits follow:

*Irate investors sue Facebook, Zuckerberg and banks over IPO*
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1182754--facebook-mark-zuckerberg-banks-sued-over-ipo

What a circus.


----------



## Four Pillars

kcowan said:


> Fusion IQ believes that this IPO was essentially a secondary offering because so many shares had already been sold to outsiders. So the opening price enriched those outsiders. The insiders (FB employees) have their 180 day lockup working against them.
> 
> What you say makes sense in a traditional IPO though.


That's a good point.

I would have assumed that most companies that do an IPO have already sold a fair bit of stock to outsiders. I guess it depends on the company.


----------



## clark_danger

davext said:


> I just noticed today that i received 100 shares of FB at $38.15 in my Questrade account. I put in an order in the morning on Friday for 100 shares but then I cancelled it before it was filled in the morning. I noticed that the order was filled at 4:31pm on Friday. What the hell is that? Can I give those shares back?


Same thing happened to me. I looked at my account on monday and there were 100 shares there, tried to sell them quick but is said "pending risk assesment" for what seemed like forever. took a huge loss. called questrade, they said it was out of their hands. 
I guess the trade comfirmations from the nasdaq didn't get to questrade 'till later in the day. 
here is some details in this article: 
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/facebook-ipo-exposes-nasdaqs-trading-glitches-20120521-00598
hopefully we can get some compensation


----------



## andrewf

What happened to taking personal responsibility? You signed stacks of disclosures acknowledging the risk of loss...


----------



## HaroldCrump

I hear that NASDAQ is willing to "adjust" some of the trades to account for the glitches.
clark_danger, you should ask your shares to be adjust to $30.94 i.e. the lowest price


----------



## dogcom

I didn't follow this one at all because I would never invest in Facebook except to maybe speculate and make a quick buck but then again I deserve to lose that quick buck and more as well if I do speculate on it.

Anyway I think everyone who went into it deserved to lose money and I don't care about any of them because I have to suffer my losses when things don't go the way I think they should. I am actually glad it went this way because it is all just a circus like Haroldcrump said above.


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> I think everyone who went into it deserved to lose money and I don't care about any of them because I have to suffer my losses when things don't go the way I think they should. I am actually glad it went this way because it is all just a circus like Haroldcrump said above.


Thanks dogcom; you're not being 2 kind 2day, LOL.

I went into this stock [purely to trade the hype] & took same risk measures the way I would have done with any other stock. 

I did not lose any money because I was not only cautious, but lucky as well, that I was not affected by the technical glitches. I too, got the 'pending' message for just a few seconds when I entered my revised order, but I had thought that maybe it was due to insufficient funds or something like that, but thankfully I was able to sell without any problems, and have been trading the stock ever since, every single day in fact! Who needs to speculate with penny stocks when we have FB. :biggrin: 

I agree with your comments to some degree dogcom, however, how many people would trade if we could not count on the accuracy and responsiveness of the system?


----------



## dogcom

I hear what you are saying T.gal and I didn't direct the comments at the speculators trying to make a buck but at the cry babies who want to sue and all that sort of crap again as Haroldcrump mentioned.

In our society we have far to many people willing to wait all night for the Future Shop to open on Boxing day, trample people at Wall Mart on Black Friday, wanting to crowd into shopping malls, the Ikea on the weekend or wait hours at the border just to cross the line to buy some underwear at a cheaper price. I feel these are the same people who try to crowd into buying this IPO not just to make a buck but deep down because there is a crowd there and they love that. I am anti crowd, hate to wait and do everything on weekdays and this is also why I wouldn't bother trying to crowd my way into getting a piece of this stupid IPO.


----------



## Eclectic12

dogcom said:


> I hear what you are saying T.gal and I didn't direct the comments at the speculators trying to make a buck but at the cry babies who want to sue and all that sort of crap again as Haroldcrump mentioned.
> 
> [ ... ]


While I tend to not have sympathy for absurd lawsuits, a key question IMO is whether there was full or selective disclosure.

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholders-sue-facebook-nyse-comes-calling-015429816--sector.html


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

dogcom said:


> I am anti crowd, hate to wait and do everything on weekdays...


Me too.

IMHO, this kid should have invested his $10K into DIS shares, and shouldn't he be playing some instrument at his age, rather than the stock market? :rolleyes2:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tuck_in_book_bind_N2IBnbMMxJBcjsp2SzoN2J


----------



## CanadianCapitalist

I have some sympathies for those caught in trading glitches but absolutely none for those who speculated and lost some money and are looking for targets to sue and people to blame.


----------



## dogcom

I agree CanadianCapitalist but I also still see crowding in as part of the risk when you enter these sorts of trades. Another way to look at it is when the stock market does crash we all face problems rushing out and stop loss issues and so on. So in a way I am happy to see these idiots who love to wait and waste their time in life take one on the chin.


----------



## Cal

Agree w CC. I think I IPO came out priced at 99 x earnings. Too rich for my blood right out of the gates.


----------



## marina628

I sold my shares today and lost about $379 ,not really worth posting but I got out for now .


----------



## sharbit

CanadianCapitalist said:


> I have some sympathies for those caught in trading glitches but absolutely none for those who speculated and lost some money and are looking for targets to sue and people to blame.


+1

That IPO was pure stock market gambling and I'm sure a lot of the lawsuits wouldn't exist if they'd made money.


----------



## Dibs

Marina, I think that is well worth posting - probably the first honest loss that I have seen posted on this forum to date. Now we know that you know when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run... :barbershop_quartet_


----------



## marina628

Dibs I have more losses than this ,CNQ I was down 40% but I bought more of that stock and now only down 20% ha.I am still learning and Facebook reminds me too much of GRPN in the early days.


----------



## Dibs

Facebook's Instagram app has been announced:
http://newsroom.fb.com/News/Introducing-Facebook-Camera-170.aspx

Here is some interesting analysis on Facebook and advertising strategies:
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4016950


----------



## Eclectic12

Dibs said:


> Marina, I think that is well worth posting - probably the first honest loss that I have seen posted on this forum to date. Now we know that you know when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run... :barbershop_quartet_


I agree in that it gives a better picture to those less experienced. 

However, I have seen others post that they have losses, though it usually a percentage versus full disclosure. :biggrin:


Cheers


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> I sold my shares today and lost about $379 ,not really worth posting but I got out for now .


You'll make that up with your eyes closed with a single GRPN swing-trade! :biggrin: 

Given the volatility & volume of FB, it has been relatively easy to trade, but I would not recommend it for those not comfortable day-trading & besides, there are plenty of safer stocks to trade.

*Dibs:* IMO, people are pretty honest around here.


----------



## zylon

*The Future Outlook - from Casey Research*

Snip:


> Despite our decrying of the trading practices of Wall-Street banks, when dealing with a company of this size and whose relationships with the banks run this deep, one of the best sources of data on the company will remain the consensus opinion of their research arms. Below are their earnings-per-share growth estimates for the next three years:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As you can see, earnings growth is projected to slow to 21% by 2014. That's exactly the growth rate Google – a company with nearly 10 times the annual revenue of Facebook – is estimating for 2012. And for that kind of projected growth, the market places a value of 18.5 earnings on Google's stock. Let's be generous and award Facebook a 25 multiple for 21% growth. A little back-of-the-envelope math suggests that would place its value at about $20/share ($.80 EPS x 25) three years from now!


http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/facebook-ipo-fallout


----------



## marina628

I am buying 1500 shares of GRPN next time they drop under $10, they will for sure just cant decide if I will sell at $11.50 or get greedy and try for $12 lol


----------



## HaroldCrump

Reuters valued Facebook stock @ $9.97


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> I am buying 1500 shares of GRPN next time they drop under $10, they will for sure just cant decide if I will sell at $11.50 or get greedy and try for $12 lol


How about 1/2 and 1/2? $2625 vs $3000 is not a huge profit difference & though in the 1st scenario, you would be making $.50 cents less for 750 shares, more importantly, you would untie $7,500 of your capital. Also, don't forget the shares might drop below $10 before they would hit $12.


----------



## kcowan

10 Mistakes FB Made in their IPOArmchair QBs find much wrong with FB. I think Morgan Stanley were dealing with an arrogant CEO.


----------



## Cal

RIM (business) and Facebook (social networking) would be an interesting merging if it were to happen. The upside could be huge. And the share price of RIM also makes it a possibility.


----------



## Lephturn

With the exception of NASDAQ bungling the trading on Day 1, things worked out pretty well for FB. Despite all the press around the IPO, it was VERY GOOD for FB. Their goal is not to make the retail investor rich, it is not to make the big clients of the underwriters rich, it is not to make the underwriters rich. They went public in order to raise money - and they raised a TON of money.

Most of the things that the press is saying they should have done such as float less shares, price it much lower, etc. all only help investors and traders in the secondary market at the EXPENSE of FB itself. For Facebook, this IPO was a success as they raised the maximum amount of money possible. Don't confuse what is best for the investors - even the insiders (a higher stock price) with what is best for the company. Management did what was best for the company - I'm not sure they could have raised any more money than they did. From Facebook's perspective this IPO was certainly a success.


----------



## RoR

What a thread! I'm glad a few of you made a few bucks of it earlier in May. I didn't read closely enough here to remember who got back in and made or lost. 

I had every intention of buying this one - glad I didn't. I don't have the stomach for these kinds of ups and downs! Still watching it though.


----------



## Dibs

Looking back at the IPO craze with the current price in view, this thread made me feel sad for everyone who bought in. One person had 1500 shares at > $40. Who bets >60k on an IPO?
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/you-going-buy-any-facebook-1176830/16/


----------



## Dopplegangerr

I lost 50 dollars a couple days after trying the IPO trying to day trade it. That was enough for me. I will go back to things I am actually happy to own to try and trade that.


----------



## humble_pie

Lephturn said:


> ... things worked out pretty well for FB ... They went public in order to raise money - and they raised a TON of money.


but weren't they forced to go public ? somewhere i read that heavy pressure has been upon them for 2 years & it was FB that kept delaying.

i'm not sure why. Possibly something to do with anti-trust legislation in the US of A, always so much stronger than anything we have in canada.


----------



## KaeJS

Do I get 10 points for NOT buying?


----------



## Four Pillars

humble_pie said:


> but weren't they forced to go public ? somewhere i read that heavy pressure has been upon them for 2 years & it was FB that kept delaying.
> 
> i'm not sure why. Possibly something to do with anti-trust legislation in the US of A, always so much stronger than anything we have in canada.


Yes, it had something to do with amount of the company that had already been sold, or maybe the number of owners? Some regulatory thing...


----------



## andrewf

Current SEC rules limit the number of shareholders a private corp can have (500 IIRC). This limits the scope for stock-based compensation.


----------



## Causalien

Glad I stayed out of this mess.


----------



## HaroldCrump

*40% of accounts on Facebook, Twitter and other social networks are spam*

_Spammers are responsible for creating as much as 40% of the accounts on popular social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. 
Roughly 8% of messages sent on social networks are spam according to Risher, and that figure has doubled in the past six months_

http://www.bgr.com/2012/05/29/social-media-spam-twitter-facebook/

So does this mean Facebook is over valued by at least 40%, if not more?
Or maybe spamming is the whole strategy behind this conveniently vague concept called "monetization" - those ads and popups are after all a form of spam as well.


----------



## blin10

i'm just glad I bought very little at 31, still holding it but I don't see it going up... my plan was to buy little and then get more on a way down but I don't see this thing doing good anytime soon thinking of dumping it at a loss and not go through with my plan... man I should stick to my energy plays


----------



## kcowan

Investment banker obligations to FBFusion IQ Hedge Fund expresses opinion on obligations to FB by their bankers. It supports the generally held view that they dropped the ball on this one.


----------



## marina628

Spam still earns money for facebook Harold ,they charge some clients on views not clicks  There are people in eastern Europe and India who get paid to sit all day and click ads and likes


----------



## HaroldCrump

marina628 said:


> Spam still earns money for facebook Harold ,they charge some clients on views not clicks There are people in eastern Europe and India who get paid to sit all day and click ads and likes


True enough.
It must also be easy to write bots to do that.
Back in the early days of dotcom, a cousin and I wrote a bot that would do searches on a search engine that paid fractions of a penny per search (this was before Google, etc.)
We wrote a bot that would keep issuing searches using random words from a dictionary and discard the results.
We even built in "think time" between the searches to avoid their bot detectors.

I forget the name of the search engine company, but they soon went out of business (or at least stop paying for the searches).
We did make a small sum of money.
The cheques took a while to arrive (they came from the US), but did arrive eventually.


----------



## Montrealer

I am waiting for Facebook to drop, once it's where I want it I am going to invest a small amount into it and see where it goes. 

I am still kicking myself for not buying Apple, Google, Yahoo, RIM and even Amazon.


----------



## marina628

If it hits $21 i may consider buying it , I don't think it is done falling .


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> I don't think it is done falling .


I agree, which reminds me that you bought GRPN on the day the IPO lock-up ended, and when shares are expected to drop, which they did. :confused2: 

Anyway, shares are now moving up nicely!


----------



## andrewf

Incidentally, GRPN is down to the $6 billion market cap Google offered it 18 months ago.


----------



## marina628

Yes i bought 1000 shares @ $10.50 and another [email protected] $9.99 ,not worried though as I have booked quite a bit of profits on this stock and I think it will go to $12 again .Time will tell T.Gal you should have told me that bit of info before bought at $9.99 lol .I was thinking OH CRAP when I realised that bit of info.


----------



## Sampson

andrewf said:


> Incidentally, GRPN is down to the $6 billion market cap Google offered it 18 months ago.


Makes sense that the biggest and most successful ad company in the World can value something like GRPN better than market analysts. But wait one second, IPOs are to make the underwriters and original equity holders rich, not anyone else right?


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> T.Gal you should have told me that bit of info before bought at $9.99 lol .I was thinking OH CRAP when I realised that bit of info.


It's not a stock I follow or trade [yet], I just knew/read about the IPO lock-up date while reading about FB. 

I thought you knew about it & that is why I had said that you were brave the day you posted. 

Anyway, now you can check the lock-up date for all your IPOs. :biggrin: 

You'll make enough to redecorate the house next time!


----------



## blin10

a ton of people feeling the heat with this fb, imagine how many bought on ipo is hopes of quick profit


----------



## indexxx

One man's opinion:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2012/06/06/why-im-buying-facebook-right-now/


----------



## marina628

Well GRPN got up a it ,hope i get to sell at $11.80 this week for $3100 profit.My house is only 2 years old and just finishing the redecorating lol.


----------



## Toronto.gal

marina628 said:


> 1. hope i get to sell at $11.80 this week for $3100 profit.
> 2. My house is only 2 years old and just finishing the redecorating lol.


1. You might just be able to do that next week. You have done very well swing-trading this tricky stock, which is not for the faint of heart!
2. I made the comment as you mentioned that you had bought a new bedroom set with your last GRPN trading profit.

Let's see if FB will rise next week.


----------



## marina628

I am out of facebook and don't think I will be going back into it. My brother is living with us now ,he has terminal cancer  So we bought the new bedroom set for him as there was only a single bed in that room and we repainted the room a bit brighter since he was spending so much time there.He seems a bit better as chemo goes on but it is palliative Chemo so day by day for us.


----------



## kcowan

Hard to say this but he is lucky to have you for a sister Marina. (I mean he is not lucky in any sense but this.)


----------



## kcowan

*Analyst price estimates*

Facebook Analyst Coverage: Meh!

By Barry Ritholtz - June 27th, 2012, 9:42AM

6 Buys, 3 Neutrals
Average Price Target = $39

BofA/Merrill – Neutral – $38 PT
Goldman Sachs – Buy – $42 PT
Oppenheimer – Outperform – $41 PT
JPMorgan – Overweight – $45 PT
Piper Jaffray – Overweight – $41 PT
Wells Fargo – Outperform – $37-$40 Range
Credit Suisse – Neutral – $34 PT
Citigroup – Neutral – $35 PT
Morgan Stanley – Overweight – $38


----------



## andrewf

There is a huge overhang in FB shares, with all the insiders who are locked up and would very much like to sell. Especially before the CG tax rates jump in the US.


----------



## Ihatetaxes

Nobody's talking about the huge spanking FB is taking? Anybody buying?


----------



## PMREdmonton

To me the problem with FB is there is a bunch of fatigue going on. Most of the people who I know on it hardly ever post anymore. I have a suspicion that the average amount of time spent on the site might be declining markedly.

Then you have the issue that it sounds like advertisers seem to be thinking it is not worthwhile to advertise there with GM pulling out a couple of months ago.

They are also noticing a big slow down in new users signing up so that will not drive the stock price anymore. At this point shareholders want to see profits and FB doesn't have any once you account for all the share-based compensation they give out to their work force.

They are now trying to find ways of selling information about their users to advertisers but I don't know how well this is going to work if hours spent on the site are in decline.

This still likes like a stock in a long-term downwards trend to me.


----------



## andrewf

Down 50% from the IPO? What a screaming buy. :/


----------



## doctrine

Fair value for a company with these earnings and a 30% revenue growth is probably somewhere around $10, which would be a P/E in the 20-25 range. If FB dropped to $10, it could be considered a reasonable buy. Otherwise, they remain unable to return value to shareholders with an inflated share price.


----------



## HaroldCrump

$10 is precisely the fair value assigned by Reuters analyst soon after the IPO.
At that time FB was still in the $35 range.


----------



## zylon

*Facebook CIA Project:*


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Haha thats hilarious zylon, good find


----------



## zylon

The last sentence is most excellent;
*"I'm of course a big fan of any social networking site; it allows me to interact with my fans without having to see, hear, or smell them".*


----------



## Dopplegangerr

Yea I caught that as well, bloody brilliant lol


----------



## thenegotiator

i love FB :encouragement::biggrin::biggrin:
when it is going down lol


----------



## thompsg4416

thenegotiator said:


> i love FB :encouragement::biggrin::biggrin:
> when it is going down lol


Its had a nice little run up heading into this mystery announcement. Long term though I don't have any faith in this one unless they pull something out of their A$$ and surprise me.


----------



## thenegotiator

thom
I am short FB at 30 bux level .
had to cover when it broke above 30 bux.
my target is a lot lower than 30 bux.


----------



## marina628

888 Casino recently did a press release that they are teaming up with Facebook to launch real money gambling in UK only (UK is regulated market).


----------



## thenegotiator

starting to see some capitualation.
on volume.
from covering to positive territory is not too bad.
it has more to shed.
i am waiting and holding my short.
at least inflection point at 25.15.
key inflection point .
remeber that i started this short at 30 bux.
and covedred it already.

i am a very patient trader.
was not for AMD


----------



## thenegotiator

:tongue-new::chuncky::encouragement::hopelessness:


----------



## andrewf

So apparently Google+ has about 1/4 as many active users as FB, already. I trust Google to be able to leverage and monetize social info better than FB. Also, G+ and youtube are #2 and #3 respectively in social networking active users.


----------



## zylon

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2013/02/06/tech-talk-for-wednesday-february-6th-2013/


----------



## buhhy

andrewf said:


> So apparently Google+ has about 1/4 as many active users as FB, already. I trust Google to be able to leverage and monetize social info better than FB. Also, G+ and youtube are #2 and #3 respectively in social networking active users.


G+ is a desert. Active users mean nothing since every Android phone activation will register the user a G+ account. Those numbers are simply thrown out to satisfy investors. As of a year ago, each G+ user spends 3 minutes per month on G+ while each Facebook user spends 405 minutes on Facebook. Hell, even Myspace has better engagement than G+.

Not to say that Facebook isn't a horrible company, it certainly is.


----------



## andrewf

A year is a long time. More recent stats would be interesting.

Also, consider Youtube which is something of a social media site. It has lots of users, high engagement, and the opportunity to display video ads.


----------



## 1sImage

Anyone watch the FB live chat?
Boom, hold on tight FB is about to skyrocket!!!

Glad I bought in Yesterday!!!!!!


----------



## jcgd

What does Facebook do? To earn profits I mean.


----------



## andrewf

They sell everything they know about you to the highest bidder.


----------



## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> Boom, hold on tight FB is about to skyrocket!!!


Not 'about', but I believe it will! 

I waited for the stock to drop to $10 to lock-in some shares for long-term, but it never reached my entry price, though I have traded it with reasonable success, from day 1.


----------



## thenegotiator

Toronto.gal said:


> Not 'about', but I believe it will!
> 
> I waited for the stock to drop to $10 to lock-in some shares for long-term, but it never reached my entry price, though I have traded it with reasonable success, from day 1.


the face book saga :biggrin:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=fb


----------



## brad

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/25/t...ats-expectations-on-strong-mobile-growth.html

"Facebook, the world’s largest social networking site, reported strong second-quarter revenue and profit on Wednesday, blowing past Wall Street’s expecations and sending the stock up about 20 percent in after-hours trading. The company said it had net income of $333 milion, or 13 cents a share. Excluding stock-based compensation expenses, profits were $488 million or 19 cents a share, compared to 12 cents a share in the second quarter a year ago. Revenue soared 53 percent to $1.8 billion."


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## Toronto.gal

Not surprised.


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## andrewf

The P/E is still absurd. They need to have this kind of performance for the next 25 quarters to justify their valuation today.


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## 1sImage

up 24% premarket.


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## FrugalTrader

Just saw a tweet that it's up to $34 in pre-market. 30% move in less than 24 hrs.


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## Toronto.gal

FrugalTrader said:


> Just saw a tweet that it's up to $34 in pre-market. 30% move in less than 24 hrs.


Indeed! $34.33 atm. Such a move [up or down], is no longer surprising about many stocks.


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## none

If only this existed *except for devil clippy* I may think that everyone won't eventually have a joint eye roll and dump it all.


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## 1sImage

Very close to IPO today... Got in at 26.26


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## My Own Advisor

Not investing in this thing. I'll stick to banks, pipelines, energy companies and consumer companies to run the economy. People don't need Facebook for that. People think they need Facebook.


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## HaroldCrump

My Own Advisor said:


> People think they need Facebook.


People think they need Starbux too


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## Toronto.gal

There are many things I certainly neither need/want in my life. each: However, I don't mind at all, what others consider essential part of their lives. :hopelessness:

I do need GOOG.

*1sImage:* what is your exit plan?


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## 1sImage

No exit plan. I only have 382 shares and am on the plus side of 4 k right now.
I have no need plan on buying more, but will hold on to these for awhile I think.

I see no slowing down for this company, and look forward to what they come up with next.


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## marina628

bought it in January for less than $27.00 and my exit was yesterday .


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## Toronto.gal

Seems that you exited a bit 2 early *Marina.* J/K; very nice! As you say, 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.

*1sImage:* This is a stock I would hold for long-term as well, but the shares were too expensive even at the 52 week low, so I'm just trading it for now.

After the dramatic 40% jump since last week, I would not be surprised to see shares in the $20's again.


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## marina628

Toronto.gal said:


> Seems that you exited a bit 2 early *Marina.* J/K; very nice! As you say, 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.
> 
> *1sImage:* This is a stock I would hold for long-term as well, but the shares were too expensive even at the 52 week low, so I'm just trading it for now.
> 
> After the dramatic 40% jump since last week, I would not be surprised to see shares in the $20's again.


I got other fish to fry T.Gal ,took my 33% and ran lol. I can't read this stock but I do think it may go back in the 20's.


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## 1sImage

Toronto.gal said:


> Seems that you exited a bit 2 early *Marina.* J/K; very nice! As you say, 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.
> 
> *1sImage:* This is a stock I would hold for long-term as well, but the shares were too expensive even at the 52 week low, so I'm just trading it for now.
> 
> After the dramatic 40% jump since last week, I would not be surprised to see shares in the $20's again.


Im predicting $60 by the end of the year." Minimum"

Follow my lead, I'll make you smile! !


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## marina628

yeah it may be the amazon for next decade who knows.I am not feeling it and can think of a dozen better things to buy right now.


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## donald

I don't think ''brag'' book is going anywhere at-least for the short-term.Where would everyone suddenly go to brag about everything and showcase the bliss life they lead!
There has to be at-least 12 million canadian mom's(every freaking day) telling the world their cute baby joey said daddy for the first time or telling the world they ran 5 km @ the gym and life is good.
Don't under-bet on narcissism it's HUGE---this is milleniums crack!


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## 1sImage

At 2.5 million an ad!!!


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## andrewf

donald said:


> I don't think ''brag'' book is going anywhere at-least for the short-term.Where would everyone suddenly go to brag about everything and showcase the bliss life they lead!
> There has to be at-least 12 million canadian mom's(every freaking day) telling the world their cute baby joey said daddy for the first time or telling the world they ran 5 km @ the gym and life is good.
> Don't under-bet on narcissism it's HUGE---this is milleniums crack!


Interesting two part piece on the epidemic of narcissism on tvo recently:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv2LkAWc7Tk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXbeKKhQXKA


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## Toronto.gal

I'm a regular viewer of The Agenda, so I had watched the interviews.

How many here love themselves 2 much? 

I plan to read 'The Narcissism Epidemic: Living in the Age of Entitlement.'


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## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> Follow my lead, I'll make you smile! !


:tears_of_joy:

*Marina:* I do feel it; have for a long time, but I don't ignore valuation, especially for long-term holds. 

You're spot on that there is plenty of fish to fry!


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## HaroldCrump

Toronto.gal said:


> You're spot on that there is plenty of fish to fry!


Let us start by frying this one caught by the venerable, unimpeachable Comrade Vladimir Putin










Perfect cookout for the long-day weekend.


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## Beaver101

^ LOL! Good one ... :encouragement:


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## Toronto.gal

HaroldCrump said:


> Perfect cookout for the long-day weekend.


Assuming the fish is real. 

Cмешной. :biggrin:


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## Eder

When I worked in Uranium City in the 70's we used those for bait!


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## donald

There is a distinction between self-absorbed and exhibition vs true narcissism.
My friend crystal who updates face-book every half-hour to give a play by play of her fabulous life does not suffer from narcissism.(and i'm sure most do not)it's just being self absorbed imo + social media is ''pushing" it,it is the landscaped of all social media!we all live more on-line than ever before.

Real narcissism is someone who has been severely injured @ a young age and has a perverse pathology boarding on being a true psychopath.

If you want a really read on narcissism read sam vaknin-That is narcissism.
It's true cluster b personality disorder's that should be incl in this ''catch'' phase we are labeling the mass population with.


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## marina628

Well at a recent webmaster conference I heard about a few guys who lost rank in google and they felt it was their 'social networking' campaigns in other words google considered them to be spamming via their facebook .I bought GOOG with my facebook profits.


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## 1sImage

Up another 3% today. 

Closing in on $40/s


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## 1sImage

"$FB*Facebook Inc.*FB*-0.25%**Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg got rid of nearly 2.4 million shares of Facebook stock last week, according to a filing. That totals roughly $91 million, according to a report in*CNNMoney. Facebook shares fell 0.1%."

Payday


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## 1sImage

Buy buy buy...


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## 1sImage

And 40...


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## 1sImage

Will we see 45 today?


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## Toronto.gal

The $60 you predicted not that long ago, is definitely closer than it was 2 months ago, and $45 much closer, so yes, it's very possible! 

Still kicking myself for not having locked-in shares in the teens, but still doing reasonably well trading it.


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## marina628

I took a bite on facebook and to everyone reading this remember I am a professional gambler  I bought 500 shares last week @ $42.00 and it is because I see how mobile traffic has converted to my own affiliate websites.I converted my sites to mobile about 5 years ago but only since 8-9 months ago have I seen the surge in value of mobile.
I bought Amazon years ago and it made me so much money , I don't want to miss any of these internet stocks so I own all of them now. If my $21,000 falls to $17,000 it does not affect me but if facebook goes to $60.00+ I will kick myself for next 10 years lol.


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## Toronto.gal

Good timing *Marina.*

*1sImage:* and it was possible indeed! :encouragement:


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## 1sImage

It was up today on speculation that Sheryl Sandberg was in China to try and change the blocking.


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## 1sImage

JPM raised stock to 53.


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## 1sImage

China to lift restrictions on Facebook

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ch...in-shanghai-report-2013-09-24?dist=beforebell


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## Toronto.gal

We knew it was coming!!!!!!!


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## 1sImage

Damm straight. I ordered 400 more shares. 

Think it might hit $50 today!!!


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## Toronto.gal

1sImage said:


> Im predicting $60 by the end of the year."


And it beats Q3 earnings again. Up +16% in after-hours trading.

What a reversal a couple of hours later.


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## 1sImage

I sold just over a month ago at +$11000.

I did buy 100 shares in my American account at 49.?? Something. 


Just to have it basically. 


Massive swings after hours!!!


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## Toronto.gal

Yes, massive swings indeed, but not atypical. It got near your predicted price. 

Congrats on your profit! 

What do you think the buzz will be like for Twitter, in comparison to FB's I mean?


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## SkyFall

Stupid swing back afterhours.... I was happy when it jump that high but crashed back so fast... and about Twitter I probably gonna back a small bet on that, problem is gonna be real short term because Twitter's earning power scares me!


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## none

Here's an interesting video about how a lot of revenue that FB gets is bogusly obtained. Summary: Paying for likes is stupid.


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## andrewf

That's pretty devastating in terms of the value for money of Facebook advertising. Maybe this is why their CPM is so much lower than Google.


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## SkyFall

With the acquisition of WhatsApp I am very concern...mostly because they paid $19 billion for that, I mean WA is a good platform but $19B? way too much that's approx $42/per active user :stupid:

I think imma call it out with a return of 33%


----------



## PatInTheHat

SkyFall said:


> With the acquisition of WhatsApp I am very concern...mostly because they paid $19 billion for that, I mean WA is a good platform but $19B? way too much that's approx $42/per active user :stupid:
> 
> I think imma call it out with a return of 33%


Agree. Seems insane.


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## OptsyEagle

Well, Facebook is run by a guy who says 

"We don't provide a better internet experience to earn more profit for our investors, we earn more profit so we can provide a better internet experience".

You are not going to see the best business decisions made by a guy who has an attitude like that. It may have worked for him so far, but I know I am not going to let him control any of my money.


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## garreTT

It may not be big in the US and Canada, but in Europe it's quite large. The owner of Whatsapp actually posted on a forum that I frequent back in 2009. It's amazing what can happen in 5 years. Congrats to him, but I don't know exactly what Facebook's thoughts were.


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## m3s

^^ Interesting infographic.

Anyone I keep in contact with in Europe uses Whatsapp and in Asia it's either Line or Whatsapp these days. Kik was a knockoff of BBM by an ex-Rim employee when they wouldn't make it cross platform back in the day. That's right, BBM could have been whatsapp worth $19Bil if they simply opened up cross platform (which they recently did waay too late) I installed Kik for a bit but never used it once

Facebook is already fading I think


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## andrewf

The problem with these applications is that it's hard to hold on to market share. I have a feeling that FB buying WA is akin to MSFT buying Skype, which they promptly turned into a turd sandwich.


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## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> The problem with these applications is that it's hard to hold on to market share. I have a feeling that FB buying WA is akin to MSFT buying Skype, which they promptly turned into a turd sandwich.


I wouldn't say that about Skype. It is still the most popular video conferencing program. It has enough people locked into it that it's difficult to move out. In what way do you feel Skype went downhill?


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## andrewf

Skype is no longer private or secure. MSFT built in a backdoor so they (and probably anyone clever enough) can decrypt the conversation. Skype is also pathetically susceptible to DOS attacks (if someone doesn't like you and knows your Skype account). Every lay person I know hates using it and would rather use Facetime or Google Hangouts. People who don't know a lot about computers and mobile devices know that they don't like Skype.


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## SkyFall

Was about to sell this morning when it was still in the red, but saw a uptrend so didn't sell it, turn out to be a good decision, but I will probably sell it tomorrow because I can't hold FB without any worries anymore that's when I know I have to get rid of the stock.


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## bgc_fan

Backdoors in Skype is the least of your problems if that's a concern. IIRC there was speculation that Windows had NSA backdoors years ago (I'm thinking with XP). Unless you compile and audit your programs, there's always a risk. Even then you have to trust that the compiler is not compromised to inject malicious code into the compiled program.


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## Just a Guy

http://www.cringely.com/2014/02/20/whatsapp-first-several-big-acquisitions-facebook/


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## Ebin

OptsyEagle said:


> Well, Facebook is run by a guy who says
> 
> "We don't provide a better internet experience to earn more profit for our investors, we earn more profit so we can provide a better internet experience".
> 
> You are not going to see the best business decisions made by a guy who has an attitude like that. It may have worked for him so far, but I know I am not going to let him control any of my money.


That's basically the same philosophy that Jeff Bezos has with Amazon and Wall Street has voted pretty clearly on that one.


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## SkyFall

Well I was so busy last few days with my midterms that I didn't have time to access and go through a thorough analysis of the company..... it turn out that so for WhatsApp is pushing the stock up!


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## andrewf

So now this acquisition of WhatsApp is being spun as not being about acquiring users (@ $42 per user) but about acquiring two dozen developers and their technology. Either way it is nutty. What's to stop someone else poaching and building a rival service in under a year for $100 million?


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## bgc_fan

andrewf said:


> So now this acquisition of WhatsApp is being spun as not being about acquiring users (@ $42 per user) but about acquiring two dozen developers and their technology. Either way it is nutty. What's to stop someone else poaching and building a rival service in under a year for $100 million?


It's not too different from the speculation of Google's latest acquisitions: retain talent as well as technology. Even if the tech does not seem to be be relevant to its core business (advertising), it may pan out, or at least slow possible rivals in that technology. I suspect poaching employees can be difficult if there are non-compete clauses, but I forget how enforceable they are.


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## realist

So all of my friends that use Whatsapp dumped it in favour of Telegram this morning. I am VERY curious to see how many users Whatsapp sheds over the next month. How many fleeing users would it take for it to affect Facebook stock price? It says a lot about how people view Facebook that people are dropping Whatsapp BEFORE anything has really changed, just because Facebook is involved.


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## andrewf

Facebook has burned a lot of the goodwill they may have had when they started. I disengaged when they started with the pointless junk -- pokes, then vampires and zombies biting you, people begging you to play ProgressMeter-style games to help them get a level 37 sheep.


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## Ebin

andrewf said:


> So now this acquisition of WhatsApp is being spun as not being about acquiring users (@ $42 per user) but about acquiring two dozen developers and their technology. Either way it is nutty. What's to stop someone else poaching and building a rival service in under a year for $100 million?


The employees, 55 of them, were given stock options worth a total of $3B. Even the lowliest guy on the totem pole who gets .1% of that ends up with $3M by sticking around at FB for 4 years. I'd guess the average developer there is getting closer to 1% so the price to poach someone is going to be incredibly high.

The barrier to entry is network size - doesn't matter how much money you have if can't get users to adopt the product (see: Ballmer, Steve and Windows Phone). Whatsapp's 450M users is a huge competitive advantage when the purpose of the app is to communicate with others.


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## andrewf

Hmmm, whatever happened to MSN messenger, ICQ, AIM, etc.? People can and will dump a platform if a slightly better one comes along. The moat really isn't very deep.


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## Ebin

andrewf said:


> Hmmm, whatever happened to MSN messenger, ICQ, AIM, etc.? People can and will dump a platform if a slightly better one comes along. The moat really isn't very deep.


The platform went away from them and the network wasn't as large (ICQ peaked at 117M). People moved from desktops to mobile and none of those apps moved with them. If Windows Phone wasn't such a massive bust MSN Messenger would still be in play. I'm not saying you can't do it, it's just not easy to do if the competitor is smart and Whatsapp seems to be pretty smart. It runs on $10 burner phones all the way up to smartphones - that type of coverage is tough to beat along with pricing of $1 is a pretty good moat. 

Just as Facebook survived but Myspace and Friendster didn't - the former was smartly run and reached a size where the network became a sizeable moat. There's lots of little social networks now but few of them can compete head on with FB.


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## andrewf

I think WhatsApp would have a better chance had it not been acquired by FB. FB will need to monetize by harvesting yet more data about your personal life and who you talk to and about what. FB will never recoup their investment charging $1 per user. If you use their service, you are the product.


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## Canadian

WhatsApp's users can diminish as quickly as they accumulated. Similar messaging apps are created almost every day - WhatsApp is simply le soup du jour for users.


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## andrewf

This acquisition reeks more of desperation than anything. I didn't think Facebook was that worried, though I think they should be.


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## Canadian

I agree. The company didn't buy anything rare or arguably valuable. If it was purchased for the users - the users have no contract with WhatsApp - they come and go as they please. If it was purchased for the developers or technological capabilities - that's a very expensive ticket.


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## Ebin

I'm skeptical of Facebook but I think Zuckerberg is a CEO set to join the league of Jobs and Bezos soon so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt (but not my investment). 

There's some very good analysis out there of the purchase and its implications:

http://stratechery.com/2014/social-conglomerate/
http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2014/2/21/three-phases-of-messaging
http://www.wired.com/business/2014/02/ff_messagingwars/

The social conglomerate is the one that sticks to me the most - soon we'll no longer think of Facebook as a website but as a series of products that facilitate identity and communication. 

As an investor his business model doesn't align with my needs since he's been very clear from day one that he's not about profit (like Jobs and Bezos) but it doesn't mean at all that he won't be successful in controlling a very powerful medium.


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## SkyFall

So that was it, call it a day with FB 38% return I think it was decent


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## Westerncanada

SkyFall said:


> So that was it, call it a day with FB 38% return I think it was decent


I absolutely love this stock.. it reminds me of the Quincy Coca-Cola Millionaires story... this feels like the right kind of long term play in the tech sector where you see a bunch of folks get in pre $100 a share and then it blows over $1000 and everyone is scratching there heads as to what happened..


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## andrewf

FB is not going to be a tenbagger from here. Sorry.


----------



## swoop_ds

^^
Agreed. The final top of this stock is unknown but I highly doubt it'll ever be $1000. Frankly, I'm amazed it's at what it is at right now.


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## richard

A lot of the Facebook millionaires likely live near each other in the bay area already.


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## SkyFall

Westerncanada said:


> I absolutely love this stock.. it reminds me of the Quincy Coca-Cola Millionaires story... this feels like the right kind of long term play in the tech sector where you see a bunch of folks get in pre $100 a share and then it blows over $1000 and everyone is scratching there heads as to what happened..



I didnt invest that much in it, it wasnt a big deal but since I try to invest in a certain way and follow a set of rule instead of gut feeling I told myself if the day I am no longer comfortable with a stock I shouldnt hold it....

i assume that FB have a lot of upside but it's no longer a stock where I have a sense where it will go so I decide to cash in profit. I am still young so I still have many opportunities in front of me


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## Westerncanada

SkyFall said:


> I didnt invest that much in it, it wasnt a big deal but since I try to invest in a certain way and follow a set of rule instead of gut feeling I told myself if the day I am no longer comfortable with a stock I shouldnt hold it....
> 
> i assume that FB have a lot of upside but it's no longer a stock where I have a sense where it will go so I decide to cash in profit. I am still young so I still have many opportunities in front of me


How Young is young... and what stock are you feeling comfortable with now?


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## SkyFall

Westerncanada said:


> How Young is young... and what stock are you feeling comfortable with now?


I am 22 and still in school 

Just to be clear, when I say comfortable to hold is that the day-to-day, week-to-week or even year-to-year variance with this stock/etf doesn't bother me, i.e. CSCO, GE or XLF. Market will go up and down but with these stocks I am not scare that overnight the market will just go ballistic on their business model or profit margin or even per user statistics, once again I am not saying FB will crash, I am just saying that since I clearly understood that when I bought FB like when I did with TWTR it was clearly a gamble I prefer get out when I've made profit and not be too greedy because I don't consider FB in my opinion to be a stock that I will invest future money in it, so I cash out profit and walk away.

I did the same with BBRY, few months before they release the BB10 I felt the hype in the market, knew it will be nothing more then a bet, I jumped in (never more than 10% of my portfolio), I surfing on an exuberance wave and I dump the stock right before they release BB10, I've made 50% profit, the stock kept going up a bit but like I say since it's a gamble I was happy that I was able to make money and not lose any.

my2cent


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## Westerncanada

SkyFall said:


> I am 22 and still in school
> 
> Just to be clear, when I say comfortable to hold is that the day-to-day, week-to-week or even year-to-year variance with this stock/etf doesn't bother me, i.e. CSCO, GE or XLF. Market will go up and down but with these stocks I am not scare that overnight the market will just go ballistic on their business model or profit margin or even per user statistics, once again I am not saying FB will crash, I am just saying that since I clearly understood that when I bought FB like when I did with TWTR it was clearly a gamble I prefer get out when I've made profit and not be too greedy because I don't consider FB in my opinion to be a stock that I will invest future money in it, so I cash out profit and walk away.
> 
> I did the same with BBRY, few months before they release the BB10 I felt the hype in the market, knew it will be nothing more then a bet, I jumped in (never more than 10% of my portfolio), I surfing on an exuberance wave and I dump the stock right before they release BB10, I've made 50% profit, the stock kept going up a bit but like I say since it's a gamble I was happy that I was able to make money and not lose any.
> 
> my2cent


Glad to hear it... I really believe this company is going to have a major footprint over the next ten years... I am going to buy a pretty good chunk the next pullback and sit on for 5 years!


----------



## avrex

Facebook is up *10%.*



> After it reported first-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, Facebook shares are hopping, up 10% at $119. At a time when rivals are struggling, Facebook tripled its profits and saw revenue surge 57%.


Facebook’s Momentum ‘Impossible to Deny’


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## Tostig

I just read that Russia is moving to ban Instagram and is charging Meta as an extremist organization.

This may be a good thing as misinformation should drop dramatically. However, we still have Russian operatives outside of Russia who may be unaffected.


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