# Garth Turner as a personal wealth manager?



## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

Can anyone offer any thoughts on him as a money manger? I've been following his blog for a while and tend to agree more or less with his ideas on general economy and the direction of real estate. Would appreciate any feedback or other recommendations for helping to invest.

http://www.nbf.ca/en/tomensonturner/


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

You must be joking


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> You must be joking


+1


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## eulogy (Oct 29, 2011)

I enjoy how he always attacks young couples horny for real estate, but when he shares investment advice it is pretty atrocious.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

Chris L said:


> Can anyone offer any thoughts on him as a money manger?
> 
> I've been following his blog for a while and tend to agree more or less with his ideas on general economy and the direction of real estate. Would appreciate any feedback or other recommendations for helping to invest.
> 
> http://www.nbf.ca/en/tomensonturner/


No ... though some of his cable TV shows had outlandish content make me think he wouldn't be a good money manager. However, getting people to watch so he has ratings is more important in that format (similar to Don Cherry who is more interested in getting viewers).

The other question is who actually makes the decisions? He may be the "known face" to attract investors while others make the investing decisions.


Cheers


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## Dopplegangerr (Sep 3, 2011)

HaroldCrump said:


> You must be joking


+1


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

eulogy said:


> I enjoy how he always attacks young couples horny for real estate, but when he shares investment advice it is pretty atrocious.


What do you find atrocious? He generally recommends a balanced portfolio of etfs, reits, preferred shares.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

I will attempt to make this story brief. A few years back, Mr. Turner made an offer, in one of his columns, that, if anyone requested it, they could contact him and he would refer them to a financial advisor. Suffice it to say that he referred me to a certain advisor who turned out to be a mutual fund salesperson who talked a good game but who, when all was said and done, made money off of my money for himself while I only lost money. After some time, I noted that Mr. Turner often showed up as a guest speaker at seminars put on by said mutual fund salesperson. It's a long story but, after falling for the trap and going with this 'advisor', in the end, I had no good opinions of either Mr. Turner or of his friend and acquaintance, the self-serving salesperson. Now, I wouldn't bother listening to anything that he has to say or write. The only good thing to come out of the entire experience was that I ended up so angry that dumped the salesperson and vowed to manage my own investments after that based on the 'Couch Potato' formula. Now, at least no salesperson is getting rich on my money.

From the July 2012 issue of 'Consumer Reports': "Over a lifetime of saving, fees can really scramble your nest egg. An American household of two median-income investors found that they will pay, on average, almost $155,000 in investment fees over 40 years. And because mutual funds take fees off the top before reporting rates of return and share prices, account holders generally have no inkling how much all of this costs them. Compare for example the net expense ratios--operating costs--of a top fund in the U.S. and a popular index fund benchmarking the same financial index. The managed fund charges $13.90 per $1000 invested annually while the index fund charges $2. Growing at 9 percent annually over 20 years (optimistically!), $10,000 invested with the index fund would grow to $53,847 compared with just $42,358 with the managed fund. In Canada, the difference would be even greater given the higher fees generally charged here. Not only that but a 2010 Morningstar study found that low-cost funds consistently performed better than high-cost funds, regardless of asset class or time period."

This then leaves me wondering why Mr. Turner, when contacted by me, referred me to a mutual fund salesperson who proceeded to build a portfolio for me of high fee managed funds and subsequently switched me from fund to fund over the time that I was with him. The result was that I was paying big fees while losing money while the salesperson and mutual fund companies continued to make money off of my money. It's nice work if you can get it!!

Suffice it to say that the entire experience left me a complete cynic when it comes to the self-interests of the entire financial services industry and those who make a living off of writing about it.

I realize that the topic-starter was not asking for any of this but the mere mention of Garth Turner just sets me off

Take charge of your own money because nobody cares about it as much as you do and assume that nobody involved in the financial services industry will put your best interests ahead of theirs. It's a tough, cruel world out there!!!

Live and learn.


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## eulogy (Oct 29, 2011)

> He generally recommends a balanced portfolio of etfs, reits, preferred shares.


His advice tends to be more generic, oversimplified and cliche. And in this industry, it's the reason you get screwed over. I've yet to understand his like of REITs and at the same time talking about real estate doom and gloom. He has also said that you shouldn't put money into an RRSP unless you're going to loot it in the short term.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Regardless of whether his predictions around RE are right or wrong, the fact is that this guy is a radical nutbar.
You don't invest your money with a radical nutbar.
Just look at his political record - this guy was the laughing stock of the parliament, and has the dubious distinction of having been a member of each of the 4 political parties (and kicked out by each).
His economic predictions have fared no better.
Including his doom and gloom predictions about RE (which, BTW, have been going on for nearly 8 years now).

A money manager needs to be a responsible, balanced, unpretentious and reliable individual.
Not a loose cannon, radical, nutbar


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

Belguy said:


> I will attempt to make this story brief. A few years back, Mr. Turner made an offer, [ ... ]
> 
> Suffice it to say that the entire experience left me a complete cynic when it comes to the self-interests of the entire financial services industry and those who make a living off of writing about it.
> 
> ...


That's sort of the impression I had where GT is the "celebrity" to draw in clients for the back office types.

As for cynical about the entire financial services industry, I've had some give good advice. However, this may be because I've at least attempted to understand the product before talking to anyone. As part of the discussion, I'm asking questions like "how do you get paid" and "for this product, what limits my return" etc. The smoke & mirrors are usually put away or I walk away.

+1 on taking care of your own money. Though this can mean refusing to invest without understanding as opposed to necessarily DIY.


Cheers


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## Chris L (Nov 16, 2011)

I feel stuck. I sold out a portion of my RE holdings and need to put it to use. I don't plan on re-buying in the short term and don't feel totally confident about doing a couch potato portfolio at the moment. I am interested in investing for immediate dividends to supplement the income I used to have from running rental property. Because it's a decent amount of money, I feel that I should get some help doing this. My bank has been "bugging" me to talk to their advisers (free service via TD). I will go in and hear them out at least. I've done a lot of research but coming from a RE background feel a bit baked. Too bad RE seems to be headed on a down-stroke, but that's my sense. Appreciate your thoughts on Garth and am listening. A lot of what was said has crossed my mind although I'm not quite as enthusiastic about the negative aspects as I can empathize from where he comes from. What sort of alternatives are out there? 

By the way, Garth charges 1% management fee on the lot, or can offer advise on a fee basis (few hundred an hour). Yes, he does seem like the front man, as his blog is aimed at reeling in investors tired of RE and obviously he's teamed up with others with more specific credentials. He used to be finance minister, so I do think that counts for something.


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

He was once a politician? Well, that is the final nail in the coffin!! Politicians and financial services salespersons (including bank salespersons) are both at the bottom of my trust index--just under used car salespersons and lawyers. 

P.S. You could consider putting some of your money to work in some U.S. large cap dividend payers but don't do it all at once.

One ETF to consider:

http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:DLN


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## Young&Ambitious (Aug 11, 2010)

ETF's is a good place to start to get a selection of companies and sounds suitable for your investment level. Check out some of the posts on Canadian Couch Potato, I found them very informative myself.


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## Barwelle (Feb 23, 2011)

I do read his blog, and agree with him that everything isn't as rosy in RE as most seem to think it is, and that real estate agents/companies are being deceptive about the real current state of the market. But he's too sensationalistic, and I wonder if all the facts he comes up with are true. It's as if he just wants to draw attention to himself. Which he is succeeding at... look at the herd of sheep that profess their unending faith and admiration in him and his cause each time he posts. His humour is occasionally funny, but a financial blog that has PG-13 rated pictures takes away its credibility, to me. I like what Harold said: "A money manager needs to be a responsible, balanced, unpretentious and reliable individual."

I like the smiley face hidden in Belguy's link hehe...



> http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NYSEARCA:DLN


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## Mall Guy (Sep 14, 2011)

Poor Garth, KO'd by Kevin O'Leary . . . sad days indeed


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## GOB (Feb 15, 2011)

The guy is a loon, and refuses to admit any errors in his opinions or his forecasting. He's been bearish on gold since at least $1200, and he proudly bleats on about how people should have listened to him when gold drops a few percent on the day, and because it has corrected from $1900. Would have been impressive if he called the top at $1900 without also calling it at $1800, $1700, $1600, $1500, all the way down to $1200 and below. He also lumps Apple in the overvalued category with NFLX and AMZN. His lack of accountability and understanding of valuation means he will never manage a cent of my money. 

His style is destined for average gains, which may not be bad in this market but I believe I can do a lot better on my own, and have so far. 

Still read his blog because it's entertaining and does contain some good info on real estate, although an open mind is needed to extract the good stuff while ignoring the large amounts of rubbish, especially when he starts veering away from real estate.


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## Miser (Apr 24, 2011)

Not sure how he is in a micro investing scenario.
I read one of his books and his macro economic sense is moronic.
Missed the mark by a mile.
He takes care of Garth.


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## 44545 (Feb 14, 2012)

eulogy said:


> His advice tends to be more generic, oversimplified and cliche. And in this industry, it's the reason you get screwed over. *I've yet to understand his like of REITs and at the same time talking about real estate doom and gloom.* He has also said that you shouldn't put money into an RRSP unless you're going to loot it in the short term.


I'd understood that REITs invested in commercial real-estate (the malls that Walmart, Sobey's, Futureshop et al have 30 year leases to occupy), comparatively sound investments vice residential real-estate.


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## Lucy (Mar 10, 2012)

CJOttawa said:


> I'd understood that REITs invested in commercial real-estate (the malls that Walmart, Sobey's, Futureshop et al have 30 year leases to occupy), comparatively sound investments vice residential real-estate.



Yes but when interest rates change, valuations change and so does the economy. Rates can go nowhere but up from here.


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## Mike59 (May 22, 2010)

GOB said:


> The guy is a loon, and refuses to admit any errors in his opinions or his forecasting. He's been bearish on gold since at least $1200, and he proudly bleats on about how people should have listened to him when gold drops a few percent on the day, and because it has corrected from $1900. Would have been impressive if he called the top at $1900 without also calling it at $1800, $1700, $1600, $1500, all the way down to $1200 and below. He also lumps Apple in the overvalued category with NFLX and AMZN. His lack of accountability and understanding of valuation means he will never manage a cent of my money.
> .


Sounds like he's all over the map. I read through one of his books from my local library awhile ago and if I recall correctly, the take home message was to bunker down, hold precious metals, buy guns and wait for the end game :eek2:


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## Belguy (May 24, 2010)

Heh, it sounds like Garth and I are on the same wave length after all!!:eek2:


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## londoncalling (Sep 17, 2011)

belguy said:


> heh, it sounds like garth and i are on the same wave length after all!!:eek2:


lmao!!!!!


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I have alot of time for Garth Turner. Do I follow his advice to the letter? No. Does he author one of the most entertaining blogs in Canada? Yes. Garth is a great writer.


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## Four Pillars (Apr 5, 2009)

Jon_Snow said:


> Garth is a great writer.


Absolutely - I don't agree with a single thing he says, but I really enjoy reading his blog.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I've never had any faith in him since I read one of his books, years ago. It was obvious he did not even understand how a mortgage works, yet he was giving advice about real estate!

You would be better off flipping a coin than listening to that guy.


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## sharbit (Apr 26, 2012)

He's a good writer that sells lots of books but his financial knowledge is clearly lacking. Also, though I would never use a broker personally, one attribute I would argue is most important in a broker is experience, which he lacks.


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

I fact checked some of his statements. Some are wrong some are right. He fudge numbers like those RE pumpers that he blasts.

On his investment advice. He uses one of those techniques where he consistently call for one direction on everything until it is right. But if you followed when he called it. It is usually 2~3 years early. The one time you can make money was on the bank preferred call. His REIT call was at the top so those who followed made no money and lost none so far.

Also I doubt he writes his own blog. Who spend that much time writing a novel everyday?


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Causalien said:


> The one time you can make money was on the bank preferred call. His REIT call was at the top so those who followed made no money and lost none so far.


In other words, his "record" as a forecaster is just as good (and bad) as anyone else.
I recall his "advice" to liquidate all stocks in early 2009 - just when the market was on the cusp of turning around.

And isn't he also the dude who was peddling holding your home mortgage inside your RRSP?


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## Causalien (Apr 4, 2009)

HaroldCrump said:


> In other words, his "record" as a forecaster is just as good (and bad) as anyone else.
> I recall his "advice" to liquidate all stocks in early 2009 - just when the market was on the cusp of turning around.
> 
> And isn't he also the dude who was peddling holding your home mortgage inside your RRSP?


Can't comment on that since I have never done the mortgage in RRSP myself


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

He is an entertaining read. Like any other investment guru, take his advise with a grain of salt and formulate your own investment strategy.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I'm going to give this thread a bump.

I've been reading Garth's blog for the last couple months and I fully agree with his RE assessment (although even though I've only been reading it for 2 months I feel like the horse has been beaten to death, buried, re-animated, shot in the chest, the horse has gotten up, double-tap to the head and on and on). Anyway, his writing can be OK (sometimes a bit sloppy but he's is quite prolific and good writing takes time) and I've learned some good stuff.

I do, however, think his investment stuff is a little off. A couple examples:
1) He continually berates people who pay off their mortgage quickly. Although this may not be a financially optimal solution (at least retrospectively) it's hard to say that it's a BAD decision. It's responsible low yield investing as far as I'm concerned. Those doing that should be commended and some suggestions made, not belittled like they're idiots. Maybe I'm an idiot for thinking this.
2) He's made some errors about canadian equities being less tax efficient in RRSP compared to cash accounts (error with confusing pre-tax and after tax values)
3) He's anti-index investing. Again, I think it's hard to say that index investing is a BAD idea - by definition it's not a bad investment and as everyone knows here index investing will beat the vast majority of managed funds and individual investors over the long term.

So now i'm a little torn about this guy. He makes an entertaining broken record but I'm not really convinced I would suggest him as a money manager.

Thoughts?


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## Jon_Snow (May 20, 2009)

I don't think he's anti-index.... I'm pretty sure I've seen him mention that owning individual stocks is a bad idea for most folks... he's all about balance - ETF's, REITS, sprinkling of preferreds etc...

Don't take everything he says as gospel, but I have alot time for Garth Turner...


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I was surprised too but he makes it pretty clear in this comment section. Excuse the bum.

I don't think Garth demands respect (actually I'm sure he's quite insecure) but when someone starts to so assertively say something I know is incorrect I start to doubt the things that I assume he is correct about (although I think he's correct about housing but to me that's a no-brainer anyway)



http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/01/26/bad-idea-2/
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Garth, I agree with most of your views, but I would like to know what you think of the couch potato investing theory of holding Index Funds and ETF’s and reorganizing them once a year to save on MER fees?

*Indexers will not be happy. Leave the potato on the couch. — Garth*
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_*Indexers will be unhappy. You will learn this. — Garth*_
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*My conservative portfolio beat the market by 11% last year. Indexers were not happy. — Garth*
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*Do you also fix hard drives and do dental surgery? There is no simple way DIY investors can avoid being cannon fodder. Unless you’re happy with 2%. — Garth*
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## Robillard (Apr 11, 2009)

He has been going on about how interest rates will be going up later this year. Of course, he's entitled to his own predictions. I just don't think it is going to pan out the way he expects, given the weak inflation picture in Canada. I used to think that interest rates needed to go up for the bottom to fall out of the housing market. Now I'm not so sure.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I do recall times in the past when banks raised mortgage interest rates quite regularly, and the BOC rate hadn't changed.

The general consensus seems to be that as US equity markets rise.........money will flow out of bonds into equities and there will be less money available for mortgage lending.

Supply and demand.

On the other hand, if people stop buying homes.........the demand for mortgages would fall.

Who really knows?

The only thing certain is that today's rates are at historic lows and far below the long term average.

Maybe that is the new normal.............maybe not.

I enjoy Turner's blog..........but I do think he overstates the downside to paying down a mortgage.

Who knows what the interest rates will be in the future and the less owed is better.

Also, how many regular folks are the least interested in stocks or portfolios? 

The simple way for them is to pay down the mortgage. No paperwork, no taxes, no fuss or muss.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Garth is a story teller and is light on facts and sober analysis.

Garth also is in the financial advisory business. He makes more money by convincing rubes they need his advice and that they can't do it on their own.


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## none (Jan 15, 2013)

I understand that but I think he'd get the business for better or worse anyway. 

Then again, the canadiancouchpotato is in a similar boat. $3000 plus 0.5% a year is ridiculous.


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## RBull (Jan 20, 2013)

Like some others on here I enjoy reading Garth for his entertaining style. Much of the content on his blog is extremely redundant as he bleats incessantly about RE declines etc. I've also read one of his books- Money Road. Some reasonable info and some off base- take if for what it's worth given the context that he is selling something and he's a self proclaimed expert. 

Like most Soothsayers he's quick to point out any inkling of being accurate and conveniently ignores when he isn't or is long overdue from his adamant predictions.


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## Ihatetaxes (May 5, 2010)

Garth has been spinning the same RE doom and gloom story for years and its sort of finally happening (especially in his own personally version of hell, Vancouver). I dont know how he doesn't kill himself from the boredom of writing the same three or four blog entries over and over and over again. The cute pictures help and the morons in the comments section dying to be firrrrrrrrrrrrst!!!!!! every day need to jump off a bridge


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Ihatetaxes said:


> Garth has been spinning the same RE doom and gloom story for years and its sort of finally happening (especially in his own personally version of hell, Vancouver).


If he is such a real estate industry expert, I would like to know exactly how many million $ did Garth Turner make from the US RE meltdown.
How many financial stocks did he short?
How many CDS' did he buy?
How many S&P puts did he buy?

And how many investment properties did he buy in the US in 2009?

He needs to back up his claims for being a financial advisor, specializing in the real estate market, with bank statements to prove that he was able to predict the US RE situation, and able to profit from it.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I'm not sure I agree with that. That someone can only be a valid commentator or analyst if they got wealthy as a result of predictions on the topic at hand.


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