# Home prices finally flattening... declines next? We shall see...



## Siwash (Sep 1, 2013)

Next 15 months will be very interesting... 

Andrea Hopkins, Reuters
12:31 PM, E.T. | April 14, 2014
Real Estate
Tags: Housing PricesAA Share on emailFollow this<lg-share-en.gif>
Resale home prices were flat in March from February and 12-month home price inflation slowed slightly, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Monday.

While national prices were essentially unchanged last month from February, the index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed regional disparities, as Calgary roared ahead but Montreal faltered. The Teranet report does not provide actual prices.

*"Except for the recession year 2009, this is the first time in 15 years of index data collection that home prices for Canada as a whole have failed to advance in March," Teranet said in the report.
*
From a year earlier, prices were up 4.6 percent, a slowing from February's 5.0 percent price gain. It was the first time in nine months that 12-month inflation has slowed.

Canada's housing market, which has boomed unsteadily for about five years, slowed at the end of 2013 and observers have been watching to see whether homebuyers will storm back in as the spring buying season begins.

"With the spring season underway, we are likely to observe a typical bounce in housing activity so prices will likely remain buoyed over the next few months," Mazen Issa, senior Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, said in a research note.

"This will be short-lived, however, as the underlying fundamentals point to a soft landing in the housing market."

Canada escaped the U.S. housing crash that accompanied the 2008-09 financial crisis, and home prices have risen sharply, if not steadily, in the past five years despite moves by the federal government to tighten mortgage lending rules.

While some economists have predicted the Canadian market will crash, most have said they expect sales and new construction to level off in 2014 and 2015 as mortgage rates rise, with prices continuing to tick slowly higher.

"We look for the rate of home price appreciation to remain steady this year before edging lower in 2015, when the Bank of Canada is expected to resume its tightening cycle," Issa said.

The Teranet data showed that prices rose in March from the month before in six out of 11 cities, fell in three cities, and were flat in two.

From a month earlier, prices rose 1.4 percent in Calgary, 0.4 percent in Edmonton, 0.8 percent in Halifax, 0.6 percent in Vancouver and 0.2 percent in Winnipeg. Vancouver's gain was the 11th straight monthly increase.

Prices were down 0.7 percent in Hamilton, 1.8 percent in Montreal and 0.6 percent in Ottawa. They were flat in Toronto and Quebec City.

Year-over-year price gains were seen in seven of the 11 cities surveyed.

Compared with a year earlier, prices were up 9.7 percent in Calgary, 4.7 percent in Edmonton, 5.2 percent in Hamilton, 5.8 percent in Toronto, 7.6 percent in Vancouver, 0.2 percent in Victoria and 3.4 percent in Winnipeg.

Prices compared with a year earlier were down 4.2 percent in Halifax, 0.7 percent in Montreal, 1.2 percent in Ottawa, and 2.4 percent in Quebec City.


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

One month does not a trend make (in either direction).


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## Just a Guy (Mar 27, 2012)

I'd say, in my local area, prices are on the rise again...not that I understand why.

Oh wait, the article actually states that the prices are up all across canada compared to last year, but aren't up as much over the last month.


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## off.by.10 (Mar 16, 2014)

The market is definitely slower around here. You rarely see those "sold in X days" signs anymore and most houses seem to stay on the market for quite a while. A reduction of prices makes sense.

But about: " in 2014 and 2015 as mortgage rates rise" I'll believe it when I see it. They were saying the same thing when we got our ARM in 2009. The funny part is that in those years, the "fixed" rates have been all over the place but our "variable" rate has never changed. Even weirder is that the fixed rates are now advertised lower than the adjustable ones... go figure. Renewal will be interesting.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

wishful thinking, multiple offers and crazy prices are very common, when I heard for what insane amount the house up street just sold few days ago I started thinking about selling mine...... but then what, gamble with the family lifestyle and watch the housing go up and potential tax free capital gains evaporate? People are seeing housing crash in Canada coming for the last 10 years, it will happen eventually but nobody knows when and how severe.

*Compared with a year earlier, prices were up 9.7 percent in Calgary, 4.7 percent in Edmonton, 5.2 percent in Hamilton, 5.8 percent in Toronto, 7.6 percent in Vancouver, 0.2 percent in Victoria and 3.4 percent in Winnipeg.*

How misleading the title when part of the article states the above, out of all major centres all are up except Montreal and Ottawa, the first one is down marginally, the second is tech and govnerment dependant.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

If only we believed everything we read...

Similar to Homerhomer, my neighbour just sold his house in 2 days for a premium.

*Just my opinion,* but fear and risk and the 2 obvious factors. I still think that for a major city such as Toronto, prices are valued relatively fairly and have room for an increase. When interest rates increase then that will put a hold on the market, but not a correction.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

So Toronto housing will only go up, up, up?


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

andrewf said:


> So Toronto housing will only go up, up, up?


Yes, forever, but just Toronto, nowhere else ;-)


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

andrewf said:


> So Toronto housing will only go up, up, up?


Not sure that's helpful or what they're saying. Just that it could go up higher, just as it could go down lower. 

I also wonder if the weather has had a bad effect on real estate, and May could be the 'April' of 2014. Not saying it will be, just that it's in the realm of possibility. Those who insist that 'this won't end well' are just as irrational as those who insist that real estate can only go up, in my opinion. Moderation in all things.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

andrewf said:


> So Toronto housing will only go up, up, up?


^ Look at all other major cities around the world and analyze their prices. Seems to me that Toronto's pricing is competitive vs other major cities. I can't see pricing declining and becoming more affordable as demand would skyrocket. People who has invested and purchased are able to afford these properties and have made their money. Margins are sure to decline, but long-term opportunities will always be present. Pessimism has existed in the market for the past 15 years. Housing is the biggest purchase anyone can make, hence the reason people are scared and pessimistic on it. It's all about location; desirable locations are sure to maintain value, doesn't mean that prices need to increase 10% each year. I just think there are many OTHER factors involved rather than the market and people's opinion...


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Of course it will eventually go higher. But to say that even if interest rates rise, house prices won't fall in Toronto seems like a bit of wishful thinking, and financially dangerous at that.

People who say 'this can't end well' are approaching it from a fundamental valuation perspective. It's like saying in 1999 that 'this can't end well' for stocks, when the US market was trading at a CAPE of 42. It doesn't mean the market will crash next week, but there is an overvaluation that needs to be worked off. Same goes for housing when it is trading at extreme multiples of rents and incomes.


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## the_apprentice (Jan 31, 2013)

Agreed. You're absolutely right.

I am an optimist and have seen first hand how real estate has benefitted those who have NOT been pessimistic. Threads like these are far too common and will not keep me from buying; long as I can afford to, (although with caution of course).


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

Fair enough. But housing isn't a stock in the same way that IBM stock is the same price in Texas as it is in NYC. Some segments may correct more than others, and some areas more than others. My main point is that everybody gets hung up when one month isn't like the other months (in either direction) and I'm like, 'chill people'. I can't move the market, I can't forecast it and I admit that. I just wish more people would.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

I have been trying to buy a house in Oshawa /Whitby with certain criteria for last 3 months under $350,000 for rental property and as fast as they come up they are gone or multiple offer.My agent told me Toronto agents are bringing their clients out here and of course these seem like a fire sale when compared to prices in Toronto.While people think $2700 a month mortgages are 'affordable ' I doubt much correction will occur in GTA area.Watch Property Guys where young couples are buying $900,000 homes and think $1000 a month from the basement suite is great.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

marina628 said:


> .My agent told me Toronto agents are bringing their clients out here and of course these seem like a fire sale when compared to prices in Toronto.While people think $2700 a month mortgages are 'affordable ' I doubt much correction will occur in GTA area..


This is what we are noticing north of GTA in Newmarket, folks who are priced out of TO are spreading out, and this is rapidly increasing the prices here, $505K SEMI detached house is now reality in Newmarket. Insane.


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## Cal (Jun 17, 2009)

Low rates for long period of time didn't work out well in the US. Yes, now we can buy with 5% down, and borrow from our RRSPs, which we couldn't previously, this may help lessen the impact when rates begin to rise again.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

You'd better hope that home prices don't decline. Real estate underpins our entire economy... it's something like 1/3rd our GDP, when you add up construction, financing, and related business.

Bank balance sheets completely depend on real estate (and low default rates) and the banks are highly leveraged, so they won't handle a declining in housing very well.

This is why the Bank of Canada will do everything possible to prop up housing. A policy rate cut is likely coming. The economy is already quite weak and declining housing would be disastrous at this point.


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

Cal said:


> Low rates for long period of time didn't work out well in the US. Yes, now we can buy with 5% down, and borrow from our RRSPs, which we couldn't previously, this may help lessen the impact when rates begin to rise again.


? I borrowed from my rrsp to buy my home in 2002 ?


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

NotMe said:


> ? I borrowed from my rrsp to buy my home in 2002 ?


It was introduced in 1992, don't recall when the minimum to buy was 5% but probably many years as well. Cal may be reminiscing old days over 25 years ago ;-)


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I think it was the Conservatives that lowered minimum downpayments from 20% with 25 year AM shortly after their election in 2006. It's hard to tell, as the history of CMHC policy is not well documented on the net.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

It was for sure earlier than 2006, just not sure how far back.


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## Charlie (May 20, 2011)

25 year amortizations and 5% down were avail in 2002. 

I had seen a site that documented the changes in rules but can't find it now. I recall the first shift was lowering the insurance requirement from 25% down to 20% sometime in the 90's. From the now unfindable site, the 5% down was also avail earlier, but 'formalized' in 2002 -- no idea what that meant, but I do recall it said formalized in 2002 and the best I could find now was an editorial that stated the latest changes brought us back to 2002. I'm pretty sure 5% was available in the mid 90's when we got our first mortgage but I can't find anything confirming that now.


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## Spudd (Oct 11, 2011)

I know we got our first mortgage in 2001 and 5%/25 years was available then for sure. We ended up needing to put 10% for some reason I can't recall (the house price was >250k is what is coming to mind, but not sure).


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## agentPawel (Mar 19, 2014)

I really dislike these types of reports because they really give you no useful information. I want to make a few important points.

- There is no such thing as "Canada's Real Estate Market". 
- There is even no such thing as "Toronto's Real Estate Market".

Real estate is very localized, even in a given city. To attempt to combine Toronto's and Montreals market to get a meaningful idea of what's happening is ridiculous.

Right now in Toronto, every single family home is being sold in multiple offers within a week. In contract, condo's are averaging 28 days on market. To try to lump the condo and single family home market together serves no purpose other than to distort the true direction of both.

Condo's are appreciating about 2.5% yoy, while single family homes are averaging 14+%.

I've written extensively about this topic: http://www.agentpawel.com/torontos-highest-appreciating-neighbourhoods/


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## Siwash (Sep 1, 2013)

james4beach said:


> You'd better hope that home prices don't decline. Real estate underpins our entire economy... it's something like 1/3rd our GDP, when you add up construction, financing, and related business.
> 
> Bank balance sheets completely depend on real estate (and low default rates) and the banks are highly leveraged, so they won't handle a declining in housing very well.
> 
> This is why the Bank of Canada will do everything possible to prop up housing. A policy rate cut is likely coming. The economy is already quite weak and declining housing would be disastrous at this point.


Which is why we need to wean ourselves off of it... RE makes up much much less of Germany's GDP... And almost 50% of Germans rent! I think we'd all agree that they must be doing something right...

BTW:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/16/canada-housing-economy/


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Siwash said:


> And almost 50% of Germans rent! I think we'd all agree that they must be doing something right...
> ]


Why do we have to agree that they are doing something right and we are doing it wrong?

Of many factors that need to be considered while comparing Europe to Canada is that Canada has plenty of space even on apples to apples comparison between major urban centers, and RE prices are a lot higher in countries like Germany than they are in Canada, which is one of the reasons why percentage of renters is so high.


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

Well said homerhomer. Germany has twice the population of Canada in 3.5% of the size.


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## Addy (Mar 12, 2010)

If ~50% of Germans rent, who owns the units - corporations?


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## martin15 (Feb 18, 2014)

Addy said:


> If ~50% of Germans rent, who owns the units - corporations?


There is quite a bit of that in Europe, companies specializing in real estate ownership in the cities.

But Real estate in Europe is stupidly expensive, you can buy twice the house in Canada for the same money.


Scotiabank put out a warning:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/end-of-housing-boom-will-be-costly-scotiabank-warns-1.2612405


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I expect mortgage lending qualifications will tighten, unless CMHC guarantees the mortgage.

In an odd twist............the less qualified the buyer is.............the easier it is to get a mortgage.

The government of Canada makes a good co-signor for the loan.


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## nobleea (Oct 11, 2013)

sags said:


> I expect mortgage lending qualifications will tighten, unless CMHC guarantees the mortgage.
> 
> In an odd twist............the less qualified the buyer is.............the easier it is to get a mortgage.
> 
> The government of Canada makes a good co-signor for the loan.


Yup, that needs to change.

I don't know if there's rules on this, but you should only be able to use CMHC once.


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## wert (Jan 26, 2014)

Addy said:


> If ~50% of Germans rent, who owns the units - corporations?


Anecdotally, a lot of German nationals buy ranch land in the BC interior as they consider it a screaming buy. I vacationed at a dude ranch owned by a Swiss consortium a few summers back as well. 90% of the guests spoke German with the german staff. Quite surreal, actually.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Researcher Kyle Bass makes the point at Canada sits at very high real estate valuations and that it's unsustainable, median home price of 9 times median income. Even at the peak of its peak, the US got up to 7 times median income.

I posted a link to the video and transcript in this thread,
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/18022-Kyle-Bass-Canada-is-coming-to-a-halt


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## agentPawel (Mar 19, 2014)

"All the prescriptions for a problem in Canadian housing are out there. We're starting to see inventories build very rapidly. When you look at these equations the brokers put out, they give months of inventory. Two variables, one is inventory, two is the velocity. So you can't look just at the months, you have to look at the aggregate inventory and how long it's taking you to sell them."

Inventories building rapidly? Where? Try telling that to buyers in Toronto who have to compete with 20+ other bidders on every house thats listed. Real estate markets are very localized, to try to lump all of Canada into one analysis is completely worthless.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

The Toronto single family home market is an exception. There are many markets with high inventories--essentially everything east of Toronto. Condos in Toronto are also running with high inventory.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

sags said:


> I expect mortgage lending qualifications will tighten, unless CMHC guarantees the mortgage.
> 
> In an odd twist............the less qualified the buyer is.............the easier it is to get a mortgage.
> 
> The government of Canada makes a good co-signor for the loan.


Lending qualifications are heavily influenced by CMHC and so far, there are no further changes expected. B20 and B21 rules are being inforced and most of those rules are simply 'good lending practices' to be applied. Mortgages and their audits are being monitored more closely. But all this does NOT slow down the housing market. What does slow it down is the fear that such reports and articles out there instill on people who don't understand the housing market all that well.
There is no tipping scale, no declines and no crashes in the near future. There, I said it. Yes, the resale housing market may be slowing down but its definately not because of a market crash coming up. Prices keep increasing in general and there still are niches going strong today. The rules may be affecting some people from qualifying....but those are the people who should not have qualified initially. I will remind you that lenders will still qualify you for a loan bigger than you can handle.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

Mortgage u/w said:


> Lending qualifications are heavily influenced by CMHC and so far, there are *no further changes expected*.


_*CMHC reduces its balance sheet to $545 billion, down 2.2 percent in 1 year *_

This is a step in the right direction, but it is still way too high.
IMO, before reducing the CMHC limits further, they should start phasing out the HBP first.


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## Mortgage u/w (Feb 6, 2014)

HaroldCrump said:


> _*CMHC reduces its balance sheet to $545 billion, down 2.2 percent in 1 year *_
> 
> This is a step in the right direction, but it is still way too high.
> IMO, before reducing the CMHC limits further, they should start phasing out the HBP first.


All that means is they are limiting their exposure. Don't forget we have 2 other mortgage insurers who are picking up the slack.


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## financialuproar (Jan 26, 2010)

agentPawel said:


> "All the prescriptions for a problem in Canadian housing are out there. We're starting to see inventories build very rapidly. When you look at these equations the brokers put out, they give months of inventory. Two variables, one is inventory, two is the velocity. So you can't look just at the months, you have to look at the aggregate inventory and how long it's taking you to sell them."
> 
> Inventories building rapidly? Where? Try telling that to buyers in Toronto who have to compete with 20+ other bidders on every house thats listed. Real estate markets are very localized, to try to lump all of Canada into one analysis is completely worthless.


What a surprise, a TO realtor thinks bubble talk is bunk. Although, in Pawel's defense, the TO single family market is strong, and so is the entire market in Calgary. But for every market that's strong, there's markets that are weak, like all of Quebec, Ottawa, and Regina. I sold my house and now rent because I think it's a fairly easy way to put $30 or $50k in my pocket. 

Sentiment is what's going to send houses in Canada lower. Once there's a few months of negative data out there, watch out below. It's happening in Quebec right now.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

I've moved away from Toronto, but I just got this email from a friend of mine in the GTA.

She and her partner are looking for a home, they keep getting outbid by "incredibly crazy amounts". For example, 2 bedroom home needing serious work was listed for 500K, sold for 712K.

Hey... if you've got that much income, go for it, by all means. But people don't. That's my point, the home prices are way out of whack with incomes and higher than even the US homes were at their peak! There was even a global study that listed Canadian RE as one of the most overpriced in the developed world.

Just watch... as soon as job losses happen (economy weakens) this will end. People can barely afford these things when *employed*.


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

james4beach said:


> I've moved away from Toronto, but I just got this email from a friend of mine in the GTA.
> 
> She and her partner are looking for a home, they keep getting outbid by "incredibly crazy amounts". For example, 2 bedroom home needing serious work was listed for 500K, sold for 712K.
> 
> ...


Well to be accurate, just because a house sells for over list no longer is newsworthy in my opinion. List prices are no longer higher than comparables; they're lower. Location is what drives house value, always has. That said I do think prices are too high; but then again I've thought that since 2002 when I bought my first loft so wtf do I know, so it's hard to predict the future.


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## Pluto (Sep 12, 2013)

james4beach said:


> I've moved away from Toronto, but I just got this email from a friend of mine in the GTA.
> 
> She and her partner are looking for a home, they keep getting outbid by "incredibly crazy amounts". For example, 2 bedroom home needing serious work was listed for 500K, sold for 712K.
> [/B].


Out bidding as in your example is a sign of euphoria, and is consistent with the (false) belief that one must get a house now or be left behind. Euphoria in markets is a sign of being near a top. The euphoria often ends in a crash. However, real estate doesn't usually crash, rather, it goes into years of consolidation and often shows a slow decline, and eventual bottoming out. During the consolidation period, income, via cost of living increases, gains ground on house prices. 

I think if your friend is patient they can wait out this crazy time, and get a house. It wouldn't surprise me if TO house prices are about where they are now, in 7 years.


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## Homerhomer (Oct 18, 2010)

Pluto said:


> Out bidding as in your example is a sign of euphoria, and is consistent with the (false) belief that one must get a house now or be left behind. Euphoria in markets is a sign of being near a top. .


This euphoria is lasting for a long time now, ten years ago I won a bidding war, sold it few years ago.... obviously bidding war....., by this definition it's been near the top for at least ten years, but the top continues to move up.;-)

Obviously there will be a decline or a crash, problem is it may be tomorrow or 30 years from now, in the meantime people have to live somewhere ;-)


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People are paying $800,000 for a fixer upper townhouse in Toronto.

2 hours west of Toronto, the same home sells for $175,000

The price difference would put a whole lot of money in people's pockets towards retirement, but they don't want to the 2 hour commute each way........every day.

Maybe if or when we truly have high speed transit..........such as is being proposed,......... things will change.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

High speed transit means that $175,000 house will go to $300,000.We see the effect of the train coming every 30 minutes instead of every hour in Durham region already.House prices in Whitby are crazy in past 6-12 months and with 407 extension coming out east that will also drive the prices.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

sags said:


> 2 hours west of Toronto, the same home sells for $175,000


Umm...no...2 hrs. west of Toronto, you are still within the GTA :biggrin:
House prices don't get below $175K for newer, single detached family home until you get well west of Cambridge, or well north into Kitchener.

Even small houses (< 1,500 sq. ft.) are selling for more than that as far west as Guelph.



> Maybe if or when we truly have high speed transit..........such as is being proposed,......... things will change.


Ditto to what marina said above...high speed transit, such as from Cambridge to Union Station will make the $175K houses west of Cambridge to go > $300K.
Also, would you buy the new houses that will come up next to the train tracks?
This is a big problem in many of the GTA suburbs these days...houses near the railways tracks are selling well below the rest of the local market.


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## marina628 (Dec 14, 2010)

Harold I think the same as you but a house backing on the train tracks in Oshawa sold for $250,000 and was only 1300 sq ft about a year ago.I think with everyone plugged into their phones ipods and computers these days they would not hear the train coming through the living room lol.People who like to listen to the birds would not want to be 2 miles of a track but young crowd these days love to buy a condo right on the train track to cut their commute time.


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## NotMe (Jan 10, 2011)

marina628 said:


> Harold I think the same as you but a house backing on the train tracks in Oshawa sold for $250,000 and was only 1300 sq ft about a year ago.I think with everyone plugged into their phones ipods and computers these days they would not hear the train coming through the living room lol.People who like to listen to the birds would not want to be 2 miles of a track but young crowd these days love to buy a condo right on the train track to cut their commute time.


For me, it depends on train. I bought a loft literally right beside a traintrack - a single line - and it carried go trains and the occassional freight train. (You can google it, 121 Prescott Avenue Toronto). 95% of the time there was no traffic at all, so no fire engines, no ambulances, no car honking. 3% of the time the go trains went by pretty fast and pretty queitly. 2% of the time a big freight train went by, but they slow those down so they're not that bad.

In other words, it's not that bad. Now it only had a single line, so only one train on the track at a time. Two lines would be a lot busier to be fair.

Personally I'd rather trade money (which I can make more of) than time (which is finite) - a 2 hour commute one way is crazy and a great way to get divorced.


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## Eclectic12 (Oct 20, 2010)

HaroldCrump said:


> ... House prices don't get below $175K for newer, single detached family home until you get well west of Cambridge, or well north into Kitchener.
> 
> Even small houses (< 1,500 sq. ft.) are selling for more than that as far west as Guelph.


Hmmm ... the market does vary ... but I had no trouble selling a twenty year old, 925 sq. ft. house in Waterloo's north west end for pretty much $175K - *seven years ago*. It was one bogus low ball offer and one accepted offer in about three weeks. Unfortunately, no bidding war ... :biggrin:

So unless the market in Waterloo has been flat or dropping, the radius/pricing might need to be adjusted.




HaroldCrump said:


> ...Ditto to what marina said above...high speed transit, such as from Cambridge to Union Station will make the $175K houses west of Cambridge to go > $300K.


Ditto ... this is similar to the increase in values of houses in Carleton Place when highway seven was expanded for most of the trip into Ottawa.


Cheers


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

The proposed high speed rail will only have 4 stops........London.......Kitchener/Waterloo.....Pearson Airport........Union Station.

It is estimated to take only 71 minutes to go from London to Union Station.

This could draw some commuters to the London area, where homes are significantly cheaper. The volume of commuters would have to be significant to push up prices here......with all the homes for sale due to job losses at Ford and other big manufacturers.

It would be nice to jump on the train for a trip to the Big Smoke once in awhile.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

What high-speed train is this, sags?
I have not heard about this - do you have a link?

I have heard of the GO train line being extended to Cambridge, the Guelph line has already been extended to Kitchener (although that trip is nearly 80 mins. long).

The Pearson to Union is a separate project - that is the UPE project (another boondoggle related to the PanAm games).


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

I doubt such a train could be justified, economically.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

andrewf said:


> I doubt such a train could be justified, economically.


Yeah no kiddin'...just this new Union-Pearson Express is expected to *require a $30 fare just to recover its costs*.
$30 for a 20 min. trip.

A high speed train from London to Toronto Union will probably require a $150 ticket per ride.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Here is one link.......there may be better articles........there are lots to choose from.

http://www.londoncommunitynews.com/...ppy-dance-after-high-speed-rail-announcement/

Was it a budget ploy?..........it looks like it has been in the works for awhile.

_Kapil Lakhotia, interim general manager of London Economic Development Corporation, applauded the announcement saying “high-speed connectivity with Toronto” will cause significant growth in areas such as digital technology, finance and insurance and the professional and scientific communities. 
_
_From his perspective, Lakhotia said he had seen enough to know today’s announcement had been years in the making.

“There have been consultants that had already been engaged for a number of years doing background analysis, which was presented today,” Lakhotia said. “That shows there is a longer-term vision here. This was not thrown together as part of an election platform.”

The high-speed rail project is part of the government's long-term transit and infrastructure plan, Moving Ontario Forward. This plan would make nearly $29 billion available over the next 10 years for investments in priority infrastructure projects across the province, including public transit, roads, bridges and highways. _

It will be interesting to see how Tim Hudak will respond. Axing the plan won't bode well for local PC MPP candidates.


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## andrewf (Mar 1, 2010)

Longer term, maybe. Ontario's population is going to approach 20 million over the next 40 or so years. Some of that growth should pushed out to the cities along the 401 corridor rather than Toronto doubling in population.


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## HaroldCrump (Jun 10, 2009)

This project will be completed by 2025? LOL
By that time, there will be a vaccine for cancer, world hunger will be solved, global warming will have cooled, etc...


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Completed........yes, but the money has to start flowing in now to get the process rolling.

It's only 10 years away........and like they say.........Rome wasn't built in a day.

The 401 is turning into an 18 wheel parking lot. Further expansion to outlying areas is going to be impossible unless there is some form of rapid transit.

The problem with delaying infrastructure spending is perfectly illustrated in our city.

Decades ago, some wanted to build a ring road around the city........but it never came to pass.

Now the few routes through the city....come to a standstill at rush hour...and it is getting worse each year.

They can't build the ring road now..........because the area is all built up and they would have to move it so far outside the city core..........that it would be useless to downtown commuters and too many miles out of the way for most people to use it.

The political "solution" now is to simply ignore the problem and hope it goes away.


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