# ...the future....?



## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

as more & more bleak economic news filters across the screen each day, I'm more & more inclined to think that we haven't really come to grips with just how devastating & long-term the effects of this pandemic are going to be on the economy, and society in general. Is our talk about "when this is over" & " re-opening the economy" a little too...optimistic...?
I'm starting to fear so...Tell me I'm wrong, because unless they come up with a sure-fire vaccine, even if its still a year off...I'm starting to believe it could well be "the end of the world as we knew it"


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## Beaver101 (Nov 14, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> as more & more bleak economic news filters across the screen each day, I'm more & more inclined to think that we haven't really come to grips with just how devastating & long-term the effects of this pandemic are going to be on the economy, and society in general. Is our talk about "when this is over" & " re-opening the economy" a little too...optimistic...?
> I'm starting to fear so...Tell me I'm wrong, because unless they come up with a sure-fire vaccine, even if its still a year off...I'm starting to believe it could well be *"the end of the world as we knew it"*


 ... nah, I think humans are resilient. It can get worst than this.


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## Plugging Along (Jan 3, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> as more & more bleak economic news filters across the screen each day, I'm more & more inclined to think that we haven't really come to grips with just how devastating & long-term the effects of this pandemic are going to be on the economy, and society in general. Is our talk about "when this is over" & " re-opening the economy" a little too...optimistic...?
> I'm starting to fear so...Tell me I'm wrong, because unless they come up with a sure-fire vaccine, even if its still a year off...I'm starting to believe it could well be "the end of the world as we knew it"


Total end, no. Lots of changes to the world we knew, yes. 

This is the largest event in my lifetime. It will definitely bring sudden change in economy, investing, business, health, travel, education, and pretty much our day to day lives. We don't know what the 'rules of engagement' will be, and things are constantly changing. 

Will things be rocky? It will take time to adapt and figure out the 'new norm' if there is a stable one. Some will choose or have to stay at home to survive, while others who can will have to test things out. I don't have any answers, but I am optimistic of my ability to figure things out and adapt. I won't wait for a vaccine as I am not sure when that will occur, so I will try to find ways to create a new normal for my family.


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> I'm starting to fear so...Tell me I'm wrong, because unless they come up with a sure-fire vaccine, even if its still a year off...I'm starting to believe it could well be "the end of the world as we knew it"


I'll not say you are wrong. You are absolutely right. 

There will never be a “cure” or a vaccine, and our leaders know that. In the end, they’ll be forced to do what should have been done in the first place – simply let nature take its course, never mind a “flat” curve, since that would take years and years to allow the virus to spread by baby steps. All restrictions should be lifted and let ‘er rip. I am an old guy, so I’ll probably go, but I am expendable. Leave some world for the young ones who survive, instead of leaving them as paupers in perpetuity. Even now, so much damage has been done. If we tried tomorrow to attempt an immediate return to “normal”, it would never come.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

jargey3000 said:


> as more & more bleak economic news filters across the screen each day, I'm more & more inclined to think that we haven't really come to grips with just how devastating & long-term the effects of this pandemic are going to be on the economy, and society in general. Is our talk about "when this is over" & " re-opening the economy" a little too...optimistic...?
> I'm starting to fear so...Tell me I'm wrong, because unless they come up with a sure-fire vaccine, even if its still a year off...I'm starting to believe it could well be "the end of the world as we knew it"


You're wrong 

With proper medical care the death rate appears to be 1% for symptomatic cases, including asymptomatic cases it's a lower portion of the population.

They are finding better ways to treat.
I'd argue that a <1% loss of population, mostly older people with existing medical conditions would have minimal long term impact on the economy.

The actual impact is the massive government reaction, that was likely warranted initially, but as it goes on it appears less appropriate.


We've spent hundreds of billions of dollars, to save lives of a few hundred thousand people, many who were likely going to die of other causes in the next 5-20 years. This makes sense as long as we feel we can pay a few hundred $k per life year. We can for small numbers, we can't afford to pay that much for large numbers of people. It's simply not sustainable.


I feel the big risk is that governments aren't going to want to lose this power, and in some cases it's clearly being abused.
Also the stage is set for a slew of new government "support", and massive spending. I'm afraid that they're going to completely kill the economy with UBI, and even more funding to "work for the government' than elsewhere in the economy.

Why create a business, they are going to have to tax you into oblivion to even handle the interest on all this new debt?


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

The closest thing we have to compare is the Spanish flu epidemic of 100 years ago. It appears it was more deadly than Covid19 and yet until recently was nearly forgotten. It affected the world for nearly 2 years then the world moved on to the Roaring Twenties. I predict the same thing will happen this time, and that the quarantine will prove to be more damaging to the economy than the disease but the world will bounce back in a year or so.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

will this whole episode just be a bad memory by, say, the end of 2021?


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Rusty O'Toole said:


> The closest thing we have to compare is the Spanish flu epidemic of 100 years ago. It appears it was more deadly than Covid19 and yet until recently was nearly forgotten. It affected the world for nearly 2 years then the world moved on to the Roaring Twenties. I predict the same thing will happen this time, and that the quarantine will prove to be more damaging to the economy than the disease but the world will bounce back in a year or so.


Was the roaring 20's due to the end of the war? Or end of the Flu?

Here the real pain being felt by western countries is self inflicted 



jargey3000 said:


> will this whole episode just be a bad memory by, say, the end of 2021?


It will linger, particularly in areas that insist on maintaining lockdowns.

The policy hangover, we'll never get rid of it.
The new debt? We're at generational level debt for just this crisis.


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I'm not saying the Roaring Twenties was caused by the flu or the war. I am saying the economy recovered quickly after those two disasters. The point is, this Covid thing will blow over eventually and things will get back to normal as they have in the past. It may not be this year or even next year but this is hardly the end of the world.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Trade lives for cash.........is this like a cash for clunkers kind of deal ? Sounds reasonable........to an insane person maybe.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

MrMatt said:


> With proper medical care the death rate appears to be 1% for symptomatic cases, including asymptomatic cases it's a lower portion of the population.


 At present total deaths are ~271,000 and cases world wide 3.95Million . About 6.87%? Is my math wrong? 

As a % of world population (7.8Billion) covid deaths are of course a small portion. But they are on top of the many other causes of death. And will likely be a lot higher as restrictions are removed.

For world population growth rate : World Population Clock: 7.8 Billion People (2020) - Worldometer Wonder if food supply is growing at same rate!


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

sags said:


> .........is this like a cash for clunkers kind of deal ?


HEY! I resemble that remark!


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I agree with Rusty. With all the accrued debt, the bounce will likely be a little subdued, but a bounce nonetheless. 
Watch Sweden. 
Sweden's health doc read the tea leaves from this pandemic differently from other countries. I think they knew herd immunity was a requirement - with or without interventions (distancing etc). They seem to be ok, I think.


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## Prairie Guy (Oct 30, 2018)

agent99 said:


> At present total deaths are ~271,000 and cases world wide 3.95Million . About 6.87%? Is my math wrong?


Your math doesn't include the millions/tens of millions of people with antibodies. So, although it's accurate, it's highly misleading.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Trade lives for cash.........is this like a cash for clunkers kind of deal ? Sounds reasonable........to an insane person maybe.


You realize that's literally what we're doing.

It sounds callous, but if we spend $1 million to extend someones life by 10 years, that's a cost of $100k a year.
I'm okay with that, as long as we can afford it, and being a rich country, we can afford to do that for a few hundred thousand people.

But at some point we run into the simple physical reality that we can't do that any more.

How many people can we provide 24/7 care to before we simply run out of people to care for them?

I've asked before, at what point should we stop spending on health care?
$100B/yr, $500B, $1T, $2T/yr?

Or, what percentage of the population should we dedicate to health care to take care of people?
1%, 10%, 50%?

At some point, we simply can't continue to give the best care, or even any care at all.
I'd bet money you won't answer either of the above questions.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Yesterday, I was talking to a friend who lives on a Greek island. They have yet to have one case on the island. Population 115,000 and not one case. Greece moved quickly to lock down and as a result have done very well in limiting the virus in their country. With roughly 1/3 of our population they have had only 2700 cases and 148 deaths compared to our 65k cases and 4,471 deaths. IF we had matched them based on population we would have only 8,100 cases and 444 deaths! We are 10 times worse than that.

They are now looking at opening up tourism in June but with strict controls at the airports including the testing of every arriving tourist. 

Some point to Sweden above and herd immunity as a goal. I suggest that countries like Greece or New Zealand who currently have ZERO cases in the country, are a better alternative than Sweden's approach of accepting people dying.

Our problem was that we moved too SLOWLY. We could have done a better job of limiting spread if we had done things like putting out a travel advisory for 'essential travel only' ahead of the March Break for example. How many returned from March Break and were infected when they arrived back in Canada? We'll probably never know.

We could have done a better job of enforcing lock-down when it was put in place. Greek police wrote 60,000 tickets for people disregarding the regulations. Here is the only list I can find for Canada, it lists 123 fines.


datatables



IF we had done a better job, we would not now be talking about the economic cost of continuing a lockdown, we would be on a far better track to opening up, without having to talk about how much is a death worth.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Good post.

Without a doubt those countries that locked down have contained the spread of the virus.

Imagine what would have happened in China or Italy if they had not literally locked the population inside their homes.

Mark Zandi, Chief economist for Moody's Analytics has done the calculations and discussed options with major companies.

He says the US is in a recession, but if they open up and have a second wave of infections, they will fall into a deep depression.

He says there is little interest by big business to open up until a vaccine is found. Installation of appropriate workplace measures is simply too expensive.

In Canada, the government approach appears to be providing support for an extended period.

The government has extended the CWSB program and likely will do the same for CERB after it expires in June.

The cost of the support programs so far is $76 Billion. That is a small amount compared to what the US and Europe are spending.

Canada will continue financial support programs as needed, and then will move into the stimulus spending stage.

Patience while vaccines are tested is the clearest path forward.


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)

Longtimeago said:


> ...
> They are now looking at opening up tourism in June but with strict controls at the airports including the testing of every arriving tourist.
> ...


Interesting. Is there now an "instant" test for C-19? So they can quickly test a planeload of tourists while they wait for their luggage? Because if one C-19-positive case gets in, there goes their blemish-free record and the whole country will be sitting ducks. I have not looked to find out how testing is carried out. Maybe it is instant nowadays, with almost no cost (except perhaps for screeners wages).


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

sags said:


> Patience while vaccines are tested is the clearest path forward.


You're only saying that because you don't understand that the economy will collapse if we don't get things moving.
Then more people will die.

You might think you're somehow protected from the economic problems, but you're not.


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)

jargey3000 said:


> ...I'm starting to believe it could well be "the end of the world as we knew it"


Given that scenario, how you finish the fence may not assume much importance in the overall scheme of things. Of course, on the other hand, we could be facing permanent lockdown and you'll be spending a lot of time looking at that fence. Perhaps decorating with gold leaf? The other day discovered some in my workshop from a project long ago I could share. My opened and unfinished can of gold size might have dried up a bit.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

Lol...I've decided on a color...I'm going with "Doomsday Noir"


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)

Excellent choice! I'll look forward to seeing pics in Better Homes & Gardens.


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## mrbizi (Dec 19, 2009)

agent99 said:


> At present total deaths are ~271,000 and cases world wide 3.95Million . About 6.87%? Is my math wrong?
> 
> As a % of world population (7.8Billion) covid deaths are of course a small portion. But they are on top of the many other causes of death. And will likely be a lot higher as restrictions are removed.
> 
> For world population growth rate : World Population Clock: 7.8 Billion People (2020) - Worldometer Wonder if food supply is growing at same rate!


The death rate per capita seems to be comparable to cancer - 10 per 100k for the past two months. So 120 per 100k every 12 months (assuming the death rate doesn’t drastically go up or down the next 10 months). Death rate for cancer is around 120 per 100k a year.

Hospitalization rate due to covid-19 for someone below 60 yrs old (and likely still needs to work), is 20 per 100k. So around 120 hospitalizations per 100k, which is close to the number hospitalized per year in Ontario due to pneumonia.

I think for many people who are not retired or financially independent yet, when presented with these numbers will likely choose to go back to work, especially if they are not particularly high-risk.

sources:









Ontario COVID-19 Data Tool | Public Health Ontario


Explore confirmed COVID-19 data in Ontario by: case trends over time including hospitalizations and deaths, age and sex, public health unit, acquisition, outbreaks and laboratory testing.




www.publichealthontario.ca













List of causes of death by rate - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org







https://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/regional-government/resources/Reports-Plans--Data/Public-Health-and-Emergency-Services/QSHOSPITALIZATIONS.pdf


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Mukhang pera said:


> Interesting. Is there now an "instant" test for C-19? So they can quickly test a planeload of tourists while they wait for their luggage? Because if one C-19-positive case gets in, there goes their blemish-free record and the whole country will be sitting ducks. I have not looked to find out how testing is carried out. Maybe it is instant nowadays, with almost no cost (except perhaps for screeners wages).


Not instant Mukhang pera, more detail here.








Greece says it'll reopen to tourists on July 1 as it claims success over Covid-19


With almost a fifth of its recession-battered economy dependent on tourism, Greece wants to start receiving foreign tourists on July 1.




www.cnn.com





No one is expecting to get the number of tourists that they did in the past. For starters it will be harder to even get there and beyond the budget of most past 'package' tourists. So while there will be risk, they seem to have a reasonable plan to manage that risk with testing and contact tracing.


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## agent99 (Sep 11, 2013)

I can understand people needing to get back to work. 
But this is a very contagious disease with no medical way of providing protection. Cancer is an individual thing and a bad one at that, but it is not contagious. 
The social distancing being used, appears to be the only way of reducing contagion and preventing this thing from getting a whole lot worse. We should wait until rate of new cases drops significantly before opening economy. It has not even started to drop here.
Even then, we should make masks readily available and make them mandatory at least when entering hospitals, stores, work places or commuting. Block off 2/3 of seats in movie theaters& sports stadium. Same in schools. And so on No easy solutions, but we have to beat this.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

My friend in Greece who I mentioned above, owns a small apartment complex. There are 3 buildings each with 6-8 apartments, set in a u-shape around a central garden and swimming pool. I used to live in one of the apartments full time.

Since each apartment has a living room and kitchen as well as bedrooms, it is a good setup for an easing up on tourism. On arrival, you could be picked up at the airport, driven to the apartments, have your grocery list taken and filled for you and left to enjoy the weather. You could quite easily maintain distancing throughout your stay. For a 'chill out' break from everyday life, it would work well. You wouldn't be going out to bars and restaurants but you could rent a car, visit various places around the island, go to the beach or just sit by the pool with a tall, cool drink.

The subject of this thread is 'the future?' Perhaps this is an example of a future vacation that IS possible. The risk will be in going to the airport and flying on the plane but if the number of cases in the country you start from is low and in the country you go to (as it is in this example it is zero on the island) it is low, then some may find that risk acceptable.

Given our current unseasonally cold weather, I would not mind spending a couple of weeks away from here and away from the constant 'virus, virus, virus'. A couple of weeks on a virus free island in the sun sounds pretty good to me right now. I'm not selling anything here but just for interest, here is the apartments I am talking about.




__





Niki Hotel Apartments - Rhodes - Greece


Responsive Hotel Site template




www.nikihotelapartments.gr


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

wonder if car travel to US hotspots (no pun intended) becomes preferred over air travel?


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Money172375 said:


> wonder if car travel to US hotspots (no pun intended) becomes preferred over air travel?


I'd rather risk a flight to a safer destination than anywhere in the USA for the foreseeable future. 

But your thought really only applies to people who even have anywhere in the USA they would want to visit to begin with money172375. You can't prefer car over air travel if you want to go hiking in Switzerland and there is no comparable alternative in the USA to hiking in Switzerland.

You can have an alternative to just lying on a beach and some may as you are wondering, choose to drive there rather than fly to say a Caribbean island. But there are a whole lot of types of vacations people go on that they can't just drive to in the USA. If you want to visit Paris or Rome then what is your alternative?


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Longtimeago said:


> I'd rather risk a flight to a safer destination than anywhere in the USA for the foreseeable future.
> 
> But your thought really only applies to people who even have anywhere in the USA they would want to visit to begin with money172375. You can't prefer car over air travel if you want to go hiking in Switzerland and there is no comparable alternative in the USA to hiking in Switzerland.
> 
> You can have an alternative to just lying on a beach and some may as you are wondering, choose to drive there rather than fly to say a Caribbean island. But there are a whole lot of types of vacations people go on that they can't just drive to in the USA. If you want to visit Paris or Rome then what is your alternative?


“I would have always liked to see Montana”- name the movie.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Money172375 said:


> “I would have always liked to see Montana”- name the movie.


That's too easy ... THRO


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

How about "I'd like to see Paris before I die... Philadelphia will do."


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

i gotta watch more movies....


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Future of flight travel seems ominous........way more expensive, way more troublesome, way more time...Do you really see large commercial jets with half the number of actual seats? I figure they’ll start removing half if they are booking at 50%.....just the save the dead weight. Baggage claim, boarding, customs will all need to be re-examined if this continues long-term.









Why flying is about to get a lot more expensive — for good


One-day business trips are over. So are economy cabins packed with passengers. The discount airline business model is dead, our experts say, and it’s never coming back.




www.thestar.com


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

People are tweeting that aircraft (United) are flying with every seat occupied.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Money172375 said:


> Future of flight travel seems ominous........way more expensive, way more troublesome, way more time...Do you really see large commercial jets with half the number of actual seats? I figure they’ll start removing half if they are booking at 50%.....just the save the dead weight. Baggage claim, boarding, customs will all need to be re-examined if this continues long-term.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Everything in the article seems to make some sense but the entire article presumes an ongoing risk from the virus. No mention of what would happen if a vaccine is found next month and we have all had our jab by next year. The picture being painted is a 'during the pandemic' picture, not an 'after the vaccine' picture.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Money172375 said:


> “I would have always liked to see Montana”- name the movie.


I don't think the US tourist market should count on Russian submariners to save them.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

On a slightly different consequence of the virus and its' impact, Insurance companies in the US are denying coverage to some applicants. Often 70yr + applicants are being denied life insurance - 








WSJ News Exclusive | Some Americans Are Being Turned Away Trying to Buy Life Insurance


The driving force behind the action: a collapse in interest rates tied to the spread of the new coronavirus and an expectation from insurers that rates won’t rebound significantly anytime soon.




www.wsj.com


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

dubmac said:


> On a slightly different consequence of the virus and its' impact, Insurance companies in the US are denying coverage to some applicants. Often 70yr + applicants are being denied life insurance -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well that's not really anything new. Try getting travel insurance when you are over 70 and see what it costs. Besides, what they do in the USA really isn't relevant to a thread about the future for Canadians is it.

Your comment does lead to thinking about the future of travel insurance for Canadians though. In March, the Canadian travel insurers were all telling Canadian snowbirds that after mid-March or so, they would not be covered for Covid-19 related costs as it would be considered a 'known peril' and not covered.

I doubt any Canadian insurer right now would give you travel insurance that covers the virus.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

I'm left wondering what exactly people are expecting when they buy an airline ticket under the current conditions that we are living in? 

Perhaps the airlines need to communicate very explicitly (with photographs on all seats filled, each individual on board wearign a mask) what to expect when flying commercially under the current conditions, but I would be very surprised if the airline could fly with 1/2 the seats vacant and still make money - sufficient money to cover costs. For consumers (like the lady on the news) to complain that they "had to sit between two people in a crowded airline" is presumptuous.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> I doubt any Canadian insurer right now would give you travel insurance that covers the virus.


When you read the article, I am given the impression that it has less to do with the virus, and more to do with the fact that interest rates have plummetted.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

Longtimeago said:


> Everything in the article seems to make some sense but the entire article presumes an ongoing risk from the virus. No mention of what would happen if a vaccine is found next month and we have all had our jab by next year. The picture being painted is a 'during the pandemic' picture, not an 'after the vaccine' picture.


If there is a vaccine, I’d be interested in hearing how it’s going to be rolled out. High risk first, then Lottery? 
It may be the biggest logistical feat of all time.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Depends on what country discovers the vaccine, I would imagine.

Unless the vaccine is discovered in Canada, we will wait in line like everyone else.

I suspect that is why every country is pouring money into their own research.

Go Canada......


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## Rusty O'Toole (Feb 1, 2012)

I'm still doing blood electrification 1 hour a day, still symptom free. Of course this is anecdotal and could be coincidence. However it makes me feel better at the cost of a 9 volt battery every 6 months or so, and does no harm so why not.


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

Emirates is a very well-run airline, and they recently reported their results and guidance.

They are saying it will be roughly 18 months before travel returns to normal. That's roughly November 2021.

Here domestically though, I plan to fly (direct flight only) in about one month, assuming the outbreak does not accelerate. I anticipate that I will have at least 3 flights this year within western Canada.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Just seating every second seat on a plane is a joke. A clear case of 'lip service' but with no real substance in terms of mitigating risk.


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## WGZ (Feb 3, 2017)

Nothing new to me, lived most of my life in crippling anxiety and generally isolated myself from people. Perhaps people's hygiene will greatly improve, I think that would be a great outcome from all of this. More and more will also hopefully learn financial responsibility, and living within their means. 

I love cars. Hoping I can score a sweet vehicle soon, but will hold off and drive my "recession beaters" (consisting of 3-4 vehicles with a combined value of $5000) until the low hanging fruit (vehicles) deals are ripe for the picking 6+ months down the road. I'm also interested in post-Covid real estate. I bought a new house a year ago, I never could've seen this coming. Slowly working on getting it all nice/finished basement, garage, back yard etc. wondering what its going to look like over the next year...not good probably, but never know, Edmonton seems stable, as in, we've already been in recession forever it seems and prices seem to hold alright, at the very least because of inflation. They are saying the CAD could be 0.60 on the USD soon.

I definitely see big changes ahead just like post-911, and post-2008 market crash. US Election is not far off as well, nvm Covid. Seems like 2016 election wasn't long ago at all.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Yet another example of how airlines are not even staying with keeping middle seats empty.








Packed United flight leaves passengers 'scared,' 'shocked' amid fears of the coronavirus


Physician tweets photo of full plane despite airlines' assurances of open middle seats. On this cross-country flight, there appeared to be no empties.



www.usatoday.com





If someone wants to buy a ticket, they will sell one, right up until the plane is completely full it seems. 

Here is another on an Air Canada flight, also full.








Packed United flight leaves passengers 'scared,' 'shocked' amid fears of the coronavirus


Physician tweets photo of full plane despite airlines' assurances of open middle seats. On this cross-country flight, there appeared to be no empties.



www.usatoday.com





But here is my question with that one. WHY was this woman flying at all? She is in medical equipment sales. There is no way that I would consider her flying as being essential. I spent most of my working life in sales that required me to travel but right now, I would recognize that travel was not a good idea at all and would not be doing any. 

This woman thought Westjet leaving the middle seats open was good enough. Obviously, this woman is not the brightest bulb. She should have been questioning herself and why she was flying at all right now.

The future is definitely going to see more of this kind of stupidity from people.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> If someone wants to buy a ticket, they will sell one, right up until the plane is completely full it seems.
> 
> The future is definitely going to see more of this kind of stupidity from people.


Obviously.
I bet they're still "sorting by price" on their flights.

If they simply paid to fly in a mostly empty plane, they wouldn't have this problem.
of course flying mostly empty planes is expensive, and few want to buy those tickets.

I think now would be a good time to get into that fractional ownership thing.


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## kcowan (Jul 1, 2010)

The planes recirculating system is more likely to spread the disease than cleaning your tray table. Injecting outside air has been curtailed to save money.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

kcowan said:


> The planes recirculating system is more likely to spread the disease than cleaning your tray table. Injecting outside air has been curtailed to save money.


Actually, that is not likely to be the case depending on the specific plane you are on kcowan. Most newer model planes have air circulation systems that include HEPA filtration. 








Things You Didn't Know About In-flight Air Quality


There are many people who are concerned about air quality during commercial plane flights despite the reassurance that the airlines filter the air.




www.tripsavvy.com





The real issue is proximity to other people just as it is anywhere else. There is no way to maintain distancing on a plane unless you were to only seat about 1 seat in 9 in economy class and that ain't gonna happen.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Actually, that is not likely to be the case depending on the specific plane you are on kcowan. Most newer model planes have air circulation systems that include HEPA filtration.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It will if people pay for it.
But people won't pay for it, so it won't.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> It will if people pay for it.
> But people won't pay for it, so it won't.


Won't or can't pay for it MrMatt. The future of travel will be very different unless or until we have a vaccine.

It is interesting how our minds work though. Here I sit, thinking about our spur of the moment trip to Switzerland last September to do some hiking. It was a good trip as we had every reason to expect since we have done the same kind of trip many times.

But now, I'm sitting here thinking, 'will that have been my last?' I'm also thinking that I am not happy that I cannot just decide to go again this month or next month. It's one of those 'we want what we can't have' type of things. Like telling kids, 'don't you dare put your hand in the cookie jar'.


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## Plugging Along (Jan 3, 2011)

Travel will definitely be different. We have no intention of getting on any flight unless we have too. What that means for us is will go to plans that we never got around to such as a big road trip or RV trip through parts of Canada and the US. Not our plans for Europe or Asia like we actually planned, but there is still lots to explore that is within driving distance.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Won't or can't pay for it MrMatt. The future of travel will be very different unless or until we have a vaccine.


Distinction without a difference. I believe most people would chose not to pay long before they were actually incapable of making the payment. 
That's the whole point pricing elasticity.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

Canadian researchers are joining the effort to develop a Chinese vaccine against the deadly coronavirus, with plans to begin human trials in Canada of a potential defence against COVID-19 that employs genetic technology from the National Research Council.


sags said:


> Depends on what country discovers the vaccine, I would imagine.
> 
> Unless the vaccine is discovered in Canada, we will wait in line like everyone else.
> 
> ...


published may 12th in the G&M.



Canadian researchers are joining the effort to develop a Chinese vaccine against the deadly coronavirus, with plans to begin human trials in Canada of a potential defence against COVID-19 that employs genetic technology from the National Research Council.
The trials will bring to Canadian soil Ad5-nCoV, a vaccine candidate under joint development by a Chinese company and the country’s military. Backed by a state that has urgently sought a vaccine of global importance, Ad5-nCoV has been among the most rapidly developed of numerous candidates around the world.
Now the NRC has struck an agreement to support its development in Canada by manufacturing doses that can be administered in human tests and for emergency pandemic use.
“We are going to get to evaluate it for safety and efficacy in Canada, as is being done already in China, and Canada will now be part of the front-runner story,” said Roman Szumski, vice-president of life sciences for the NRC.
*If the tests succeed, the vaccine candidate could seek Health Canada’s approval for emergency use as early as this fall,* Mr. Szumski said. It is already undergoing concurrent first- and second-phase human trials in China.

etc...[/QUOTE]


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## james4beach (Nov 15, 2012)

kcowan said:


> The planes recirculating system is more likely to spread the disease than cleaning your tray table. Injecting outside air has been curtailed to save money.


I don't think that's true. All newer planes have HEPA filters, and I'm not concerned about the circulated air.

What I *am* concerned about are people next to me who cough, spew particles by talking, or otherwise contaminate/infect me through close contact. Same goes for the airport in general, lineups, all the close seating.

I still plan to get on short, direct flights within the next month or two.


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## Jennifer91 (May 13, 2020)

MrMatt said:


> You're only saying that because you don't understand that the economy will collapse if we don't get things moving.
> Then more people will die.
> 
> You might think you're somehow protected from the economic problems, but you're not.


I completely agree with you ! these are going to be tough times


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> Distinction without a difference. I believe most people would chose not to pay long before they were actually incapable of making the payment.
> That's the whole point pricing elasticity.


So what you are saying MrMatt is that most people are CHEAPSKATES. I don't disagree with that. I think 'cheap' has become a huge part of our current society's way of thinking about anything. 

Look at retail anything and what we see is major retailers going out of business while 'cheap' stores like Costco and Walmart, etc. continue on with no difficulty. I can remember the days when people would not admit to shopping in 'bargain stores'. It had a stigma attached to it that basically said, 'you can't afford anything better.'


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

LTA........Costco and Walmart are a step up for us.

I primarily shop at Goodwill and Salvation Army Thrift shops.

My son used to thumb his nose at it, but met a girl who is thrifty and shops there and now he is buying all kinds of "brand name" clothes for next to nothing.

I go there because I like everything retro or unusual and they often have something unique.......like an old tin bread box in mint condition.

Most of our house is old stuff from there and every time I look at something I think it must have a story to tell.

For housewares, oil paintings, wooden shelving, home decor, quality dishes etc.........Goodwill and Sally Ann are the places to go.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

sags said:


> LTA........Costco and Walmart are a step up for us.
> 
> I primarily shop at Goodwill and Salvation Army Thrift shops.
> 
> ...


Everything has its proponents sags. I was really commenting on our society in general and the emphasis placed on price rather than quality these days. People will allow themselves to be crammed on a plane like sardines in a can for example rather than pay a bit more to have more space and comfort.

Re Sally Ann, etc. I drop of items to them every now and then. I am in favour of re-using things where possible and realize that there are some people for whom they provide a need. I do have an instance in which I have shopped at a charity store. 

When you travel over a longer term and to varying places which sees you be there in varying seasons, there is a problem with what you pack. Particularly if you will encounter colder weather. Packing a winter coat to use for 2 weeks out of a 6 month trip just doesn't make sense. That is when in travel forums, I suggest people consider Goodwill, etc. Buy a coat from them that is decent, use it for 2 weeks and then donate it back to them when you move on. Same for gloves, hats, scarfs, winter boots, etc.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> So what you are saying MrMatt is that most people are CHEAPSKATES. I don't disagree with that. I think 'cheap' has become a huge part of our current society's way of thinking about anything.
> 
> Look at retail anything and what we see is major retailers going out of business while 'cheap' stores like Costco and Walmart, etc. continue on with no difficulty. I can remember the days when people would not admit to shopping in 'bargain stores'. It had a stigma attached to it that basically said, 'you can't afford anything better.'


I shop at Costco, because it's the best value.
The staff are well paid, they have high quality products at the best prices. 
Their returns and other policies are great.
They do this, while basically selling all their products at cost.

If they're selling what you want, I think Costco is simply the best place to shop.

I'm glad that this social status stigma is fading. It's really quite stupid to overpay for products for "status".


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I shop at Costco, because it's the best value.
> The staff are well paid, they have high quality products at the best prices.
> Their returns and other policies are great.
> They do this, while basically selling all their products at cost.
> ...


When quality is equal MrMatt, then price becomes a criteria. Being frugal is not being 'cheap' and I certainly like to think I am frugal in how I spend my money. However, I do not see our current society as using those two criteria in that order. People put price before quality all too often and then complain about the quality. 

For example, airplane seats and space have gotten smaller and smaller as we know. Yet people complain about the lack of space while at the same time booking the cheapest seat there is. Paying for quality is not about status and that was not what I was inferring although I can see how you thought I was.

When I wrote, 'can't afford anything better' I was referring to quality. Can't afford better quality and so buy an inferior product in a bargain store. Or pay a 'basic fare' for a cramped economy seat on a plane and then complain about the space and how they can't get a refund if they want to change their plans, etc.

The focus on price over ALL other considerations is I think extremely prevalent in our current culture.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

I agree LTA.....Most of what we own will have to go when we go into a smaller apartment or retirement home, and our son won't want all of it....so back it goes to the Goodwill/Sally Ann to be sold again. Makes me wonder how many times they sell the same item over the years........LOL.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> When quality is equal MrMatt, then price becomes a criteria. Being frugal is not being 'cheap' and I certainly like to think I am frugal in how I spend my money. However, I do not see our current society as using those two criteria in that order. People put price before quality all too often and then complain about the quality.
> 
> For example, airplane seats and space have gotten smaller and smaller as we know. Yet people complain about the lack of space while at the same time booking the cheapest seat there is. Paying for quality is not about status and that was not what I was inferring although I can see how you thought I was.
> 
> ...


I think value should be the criteria. I'm okay buying lesser products if the price difference is substantial.

I think you're wrong in that they can't afford it, they're just not willing to make the trade offs.

Regarding "paying for quality" not being about status. I disagree, when you attach a stigma to "bargain stores", I think that is a status based postion.

I also disagree that Costco is a "bargain" store, it's a high value store. There is a difference.


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## Prairie Guy (Oct 30, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I shop at Costco, because it's the best value.
> The staff are well paid, they have high quality products at the best prices.
> Their returns and other policies are great.
> They do this, while basically selling all their products at cost.
> ...


One of the reasons we shop at Costco is that the employees are treated well and paid well (we know 2 long time employees). Their treatment of their employees deserves to be rewarded.

We rarely go to Walmart...I can't remember the last time.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> I think value should be the criteria. I'm okay buying lesser products if the price difference is substantial.
> 
> I think you're wrong in that they can't afford it, they're just not willing to make the trade offs.
> 
> ...


Well we can agree to disagree I suppose. By the way, I have never been in a Costco but my understanding is they are more of a warehouse than a 'store.' I prefer not to shop in warehouses but if you feel you get equal value, I won't try to argue that with you. 

Walmart I definitely see as a 'bargain store' with primarily lower quality products.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Costco has very good quality control and if a suppllier doesn't provide the required level of quality they are banished from the supply chain.

Costco inspects their suppliers regularly. I read a business article they arrive on site unannounced to make inspections.

They have many products in sizes and quantities not available anywhere else.

They also sell products unique to Costco. Their own Kirkland brand is a top level brand.

Our problem is a Costco trip is at least a $300 trip and more likely a $500 trip.

They also do pay their employees fair wages and benefits. The CEO and founder says his employees are their most valuable resource.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Well we can agree to disagree I suppose. By the way, I have never been in a Costco but my understanding is they are more of a warehouse than a 'store.' I prefer not to shop in warehouses but if you feel you get equal value, I won't try to argue that with you.
> 
> Walmart I definitely see as a 'bargain store' with primarily lower quality products.


Well since you've never been there.
Yes it is a warehouse type setup. You go and take the product right off the skid.

Why pay someone to de-skid and shelve items?

Equal value? For most items it's substantially cheaper.
https://www.costco.ca/coupons.html

The things I buy, are either much higher quality, or much cheaper for the same item.


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

Don't want the impression that everything is on skids in racks.

They have aisles of frozen foods in large quantity sizes, clothing, furniture, electronics, household goods, meat freezers, bakery......just about everything.

Check it out sometime LTA. You might be surprised and impressed. There is a reason Costco is packed all the time.

And if you have their famous hot dogs and drink.......Costco sells them at a loss to customers.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

While I am sure you all find some good buys at Costco, it does not mean they are always the best value for everything.

We recently had to replace our wall oven. So I have just done a search for the make and model to see if first Costco carries it and then at what price. It is a Bosch 500 30 inch wall oven. As it happens, Costco does indeed offer it. Their price shown is $2894. https://www.costco.ca/bosch-500-ser...ctric-single-wall-oven.product.100483073.html

Lowes currently is offering it for $2395. That's $499 less!!! Oops.


https://www.lowes.ca/product/single-electric-wall-ovens/bosch-500-series-30-in-single-electric-wall-oven-stainless-steel-30411880?&cm_mmc=shopping_google-_-6444601429-_-85426695028-_-pla-905058503179&gclid=Cj0KCQjw2PP1BRCiARIsAEqv-pQOtJZAHe1TV1Jjih9xq5UEARfyNKeMygYFkrp9ficyhnFqebVzAzIaAtScEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds



In fact we bought ours from a local independent appliance store for $2200 plus $150 for delivery and installation.

If I pay $20, more for groceries at a Loblaw's or Sobeby's etc. supermarket, it really isn't worth it to me to have to drive an hour to the nearest Costco as our neighbour does every month rather than under a half hour to where we usually shop. And yeah, they come home and show me the great deal they got on some other kind of item as well. What they don't come home and show me however is how they paid $500 more for an oven from them. 

Costco may have some good deals on some things but they also have some bad deals on other things obviously so I think people need to realize that if they want to chase the lowest price for a box of cereal that's up to them. But personally, for all those small everyday purchases, I really don't care which one is cheaper. It is only on higher ticket items that I even begin to shop around for the lowest price.


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## Prairie Guy (Oct 30, 2018)

Costco doesn't have the best price for everything, but they have enough lower priced items to make it worthwhile to shop there. Just like any other store, you have to compare prices.


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## Mukhang pera (Feb 26, 2016)

Prairie Guy said:


> Costco doesn't have the best price for everything, but they have enough lower priced items to make it worthwhile to shop there. Just like any other store, you have to compare prices.


 That sums it up. I don't think any one retailer has consistently the best prices on everything they sell. It pays to know prices, to compare. 

I'll also agree with LTA, that sometimes it's not worthwhile to always seek out the best price on everything. I have known people who do that. And they'll clip coupons, etc. and plan their weekend shopping by, for example, going to Costco for coffee, Superstore for bread, Loblaws for cheese, etc. They apparently do not value their time and transportation costs. We usually pick one store to shop for groceries (not always the same one) and expect some items to cost more than the store down the street, some to cost less and some the same. We don't fret over whether we could have cherry-picked and saved 10 or 20 bucks on total purchases of $250. We usually ignore coupons and flyers and have never asked a retailer to "price match" on a can of beans or pound of steak. I might ask for a price match on an oven if it's a case of $3,000 vs. $2,500, or a new outboard motor if it's a case of $20,000 vs. $17,000.

If shopping for a large appliance or other expensive item, it can pay to shop around, take some time, sure.

Our first Costco membership was a gift to us when we lived in the US. In those days, I used to see something there I have not seen in the Costco we visit here. What I observed was that Costco seemed to bring into its store items on which it had apparently got a very good deal by buying a boxcar load or something like that. Took me awhile to catch on. Some of those items were unusual, certainly by the standards of our local store here. For example, a load of outboard motors would be for sale and very good prices. Sometimes I would see these things and think "Maybe I'll get that next time". With those unusual and very well-priced items, there never was a "next time". That item would soon be gone and not be stocked again. So it was buy now or forget about it.


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## Money172375 (Jun 29, 2018)

We have been members at Costco on and off. Always debated it. Felt we overbought there and spent more in the long run. That being said, I find their clothing is good quality. BBQ propane is $10....about half the price everywhere else. And gas is about $0.05 cheaper. These outweigh the annual cost for us. If you’re a smart shopper, there’s money to be saved. someone in my family worked high up at Sears Canada......he confirmed that Costco usually has the lowest markup.

I love analyzing retailers. You walk into a canadian tire and theres a dozen baking mixers on display....different models, colours, cost. You go to Costco...and they have one. Consumers have very different needs.


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## jargey3000 (Jan 25, 2011)

what I've always said about costco:
limited selection, slapped on pallets, you gotta buy more than you need, line up to get in, line up to get out....and they CHARGE YOU to shop here...?
Solly Price had a GREAT business model!!!


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## sags (May 15, 2010)

JC Penny is added to the list of bankrupted companies. Another American icon bites the dust.

Cash starved commercial landlords (due to defaults on rent and vacancies) are told by Starbucks how much rent they are willing to pay.

The landlords aren't in control anymore. I wonder how our pensions are doing.........


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

Notice that in this discussion re shopping, no one is saying, 'I support my small local retailers even if I have to pay 10% or whatever more'. I think it says a lot about what I see as this emphasis on price over value in our current society.

I go to our small, local, family owned for 4 generations, jewellery store to buy my wife a gift from time to time. They greet me by name, they ask how my wife is, how her sister who has visited a few times from Scotland is doing, etc. If I am just in to get a watch battery replaced, that is done at no charge while I wait. If I am buying a gift, it is gift wrapped. If it is a higher priced item, they always, without my asking, will reduce the price or say, 'we will not charge the sales tax'. I know them and they know me. We have an actual relationship and that has a value but it is not a value measured in money.

Nor are such relationships confined to small towns. When I lived in the Beach area of Toronto, I bought all my businesswear clothing at a small independent store called The Pony Club. Money172375 says he considers Costco to have good quality clothing and I presume good prices. But they aren't going to greet you by name or give you the personal service that I got at The Pony Club are they. The two owners (still there) know fashion and give you the benefit of their knowledge. That has a value but again not in money. I used to get admiring comments about my suits, shirts, ties, etc. all the time from people. What they didn't realize was that it was not I who had the knowledge, it was where I shopped that made the difference.

Sags mentioned JC Penny is going out of business. But they had to try and compete with a Costco or Walmart and they compete ONLY on price. That is the consumer they sell to. Not the consumer who can see the value in non-price related differences.


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## dubmac (Jan 9, 2011)

these are very good points.
Amazon and Costco and *__* (fill in big-box store here) will not be sponsors to your son's, or grandson's baseball team! The local hardware store is more likely to be the sponsor.
I go to the local hardware store up the street. Florists too. they need our business.


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## cainvest (May 1, 2013)

Longtimeago said:


> Sags mentioned JC Penny is going out of business. But they had to try and compete with a Costco or Walmart and they compete ONLY on price. That is the consumer they sell to. Not the consumer who can see the value in non-price related differences.


It's not only the big box stores (Costco, Walmart, etc) it's online shopping as well. I know many younger people that rarely go into stores but instead order online. 

If you want personal service, go to a local store. If you know what you want then go online, it'll likely give you a larger selection and probably a better price.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

dubmac said:


> these are very good points.
> Amazon and Costco and *__* (fill in big-box store here) will not be sponsors to your son's, or grandson's baseball team! The local hardware store is more likely to be the sponsor.
> I go to the local hardware store up the street. Florists too. they need our business.


Tim Hortons and Canadian Tire/Sportchek/National Sports(etc) sponsor a massive amount of Hockey and Soccer. The amount of funding they provide is absolutely staggering.

Pizza Pizza sponsors Teams as well.


Realistically, it's their job to provide the experience worth buying from them.
Throughout most of my career, I've worked predominantly in export positions. Most of my work product isn't for Canadian Customers.

Just for fun, go to any Government building, see how many personal vehicles were assembled in Canada. Who here knows if their water heater was made in Canada, or imported? I've actually worked at the water heater plant, before they offshored it.


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## ian (Jun 18, 2016)

IF I was ever looking for a job in retail there are two great employers that I would try first. Costco and Ikea. They pay well for the industry, have reasonable benefits, and treat their employees well. Great combination of attributes.


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## Zipper (Nov 18, 2015)

sags said:


> Costco has very good quality control and if a suppllier doesn't provide the required level of quality they are banished from the supply chain.
> 
> Costco inspects their suppliers regularly. I read a business article they arrive on site unannounced to make inspections.
> 
> ...


Our South London Costco had been scheduled to be rebuilt a couple of years ago. Long overdue. The city planning department in its wisdom decided to try and make Costco pay the infrastructure charges in the area. That is the city's responsibility. So rather than being up and running last fall and ready for Christmas, we are now in limbo.


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Zipper said:


> Our South London Costco had been scheduled to be rebuilt a couple of years ago. Long overdue. The city planning department in its wisdom decided to try and make Costco pay the infrastructure charges in the area. That is the city's responsibility. So rather than being up and running last fall and ready for Christmas, we are now in limbo.


The laws are complex here, but there are a lot of restrictions and cities aren't allowed to pay for much of the commercial infrastructure.

London has a stupid anti development anti business attitude.
We didn't get the Sysco terminal because the city didn't step up.

I say build the infrastructure, get the jobs.


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## Longtimeago (Aug 8, 2018)

MrMatt said:


> The laws are complex here, but there are a lot of restrictions and cities aren't allowed to pay for much of the commercial infrastructure.
> 
> London has a stupid anti development anti business attitude.
> We didn't get the Sysco terminal because the city didn't step up.
> ...


Well right now your city has major budget issues due to the virus MrMatt and so has bigger things to worry about than commercial infrastructure. COVID-19 triggers $23-$33 million budget shortfall at London City Hall


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## MrMatt (Dec 21, 2011)

Longtimeago said:


> Well right now your city has major budget issues due to the virus MrMatt and so has bigger things to worry about than commercial infrastructure. COVID-19 triggers $23-$33 million budget shortfall at London City Hall


Oh, I know, London loves to waste money. 
They still haven't realized they're not going to get the massive handouts that Toronto gets.


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