Swine Flu effects on the market

daveking · 04-27-2009, 05:55 AM

Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business.

From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning.
1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious)
2) Pharmaceuticals spike up
3) Aviation drops

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?

daveking · 04-27-2009, 09:17 AM

Market is going to tank if there is a death caused by Swine Flu in the US or Canada.

Swine Flu play
GSK - GlaxoSmithKline, flu vacine
MMM - 3M Makes the best N95 respiratory mask and everybody (infected or not) will be wearing one.
RHHBY Roche - Tamiflu vacine
JNJ - Jonhson & Johnson, Purell hand cleanser
BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Avian Flu
SVA - Sinovac Biotech Ltd, Avian Flu
NVAX - Novavax, biopharmaceutical

Of course, do your own due diligence with any investment.

CanadianCapitalist · 04-27-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveking

I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most?

SARS impact on Toronto was terrible. If memory serves right, the biggest economic casualty was tourism. If this Swine flu turns out to be a severe epidemic, it will almost certainly have serious economic effects.

FinancialJungle · 04-27-2009, 11:08 AM

The media has a way to blow mini-crises into proportion. In 2003, SAR killed 50 people in Toronto, while common flu kill 1,000 a year on average in Canada. In the end, SAR turned out to be a non-event.

With due respect, phamas may be the obvious plays for Swine Flu, but my contrarian hunch tells me to invest in the casualities instead.

A risky play I'd consider is Mexican airport operator, Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR.) Over the long-term, ASR should be a nice proxy to this developing nation's economy. The best time to invest, IMO, is when the stock is whipsawed by a recession and a flu outbreak. As I write this, ASR is down 12% yielding over 6%.

I emphasize risky!

NormR · 04-27-2009, 03:17 PM

Google Flu Map

The Markets on Flu

mfd · 04-27-2009, 03:51 PM

There was more fear of sars in the US then there was in the city of toronto. I guess the media needs something to report.

daveking · 04-27-2009, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NormR

Google Flu Map

The Markets on Flu

WallStreetJournal has a good map also

JayRoc · 04-27-2009, 08:08 PM

While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.

Financial Highway · 04-27-2009, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayRoc

While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.

I understand what you mean, but there really isnt anything unethical about it.

here is my view on Swine Flu and Stock Market

NormR · 04-28-2009, 08:29 AM

The medical side of things ... flu fears

04-27-2009, 05:55 AM	#1
daveking Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 71	Swine Flu effects on the market Swine Flu is among us. It is not good for business. From early reports here is the following effects on the Asia markets this morning. 1) Swine stocks took a beating (obvious) 2) Pharmaceuticals spike up 3) Aviation drops I was not involved in the market during SARS. Anybody know the ramifications? Which companies was affected the most? Last edited by daveking; 04-27-2009 at 09:59 AM.

04-27-2009, 11:08 AM	#4
FinancialJungle Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Vancouver Posts: 89	The media has a way to blow mini-crises into proportion. In 2003, SAR killed 50 people in Toronto, while common flu kill 1,000 a year on average in Canada. In the end, SAR turned out to be a non-event. With due respect, phamas may be the obvious plays for Swine Flu, but my contrarian hunch tells me to invest in the casualities instead. A risky play I'd consider is Mexican airport operator, Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sure (ASR.) Over the long-term, ASR should be a nice proxy to this developing nation's economy. The best time to invest, IMO, is when the stock is whipsawed by a recession and a flu outbreak. As I write this, ASR is down 12% yielding over 6%. I emphasize risky! Last edited by FinancialJungle; 04-27-2009 at 08:36 PM. Reason: Corrected the yield.

04-27-2009, 03:51 PM	#6
mfd Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, Ontario Posts: 192	There was more fear of sars in the US then there was in the city of toronto. I guess the media needs something to report. __________________ My Findependence Day My Wealth, Savings and Investing Goals to Reaching Financial Independence

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

04-27-2009, 09:17 AM	#2
daveking Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 71	Market is going to tank if there is a death caused by Swine Flu in the US or Canada. Swine Flu play GSK - GlaxoSmithKline, flu vacine MMM - 3M Makes the best N95 respiratory mask and everybody (infected or not) will be wearing one. RHHBY Roche - Tamiflu vacine JNJ - Jonhson & Johnson, Purell hand cleanser BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Avian Flu SVA - Sinovac Biotech Ltd, Avian Flu NVAX - Novavax, biopharmaceutical Of course, do your own due diligence with any investment.

04-27-2009, 03:17 PM	#5
NormR Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 13	Google Flu Map The Markets on Flu

04-27-2009, 08:08 PM	#8
JayRoc Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 24	While I realize that there are financial implications of an epidemic (the severity of which is still uncertain), I do find it quite disturbing to talk of chasing profits based on people dying.

04-28-2009, 08:29 AM	#10
NormR Junior Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 13	The medical side of things ... flu fears