Market Forecasts

[ddkay]

Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread like this. A lot of people have posted their trade ideas and guesses about general market direction, but they've been pretty erratic and scattered.

So, what do you guys think will happen in the markets tomorrow?

I'll start... I think we'll break 1100 again on the S&P in the next few days, VIX spike to 48+. I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow. I'm monitoring Hurricane Irene, it looks like she's developing into a Category 3 and on a direct path to NYC going into the weekend. NYC released a flood evacuation map and Wall Street is literally going under water (Zone C): http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/download...ap_english.pdf

In other news, Japan's PM Kan just resigned.

[KaeJS]

I'm going to say shit stays neutral and gold flies back up.

[Argonaut]

I don't think gold has priced in QE3 after the recent drop. I like its upside via fear or inflation, and we're bound to have at least one of them. On the other hand, I don't think the market has priced in non-QE3 yet.

Tomorrow is going to be a wild day. I think the market gets slammed as hard as it did last Thursday. The wildcard is gold. Will it go up with fear, or down with a flight to cash? It's probably good that a big drop happened and shook off the lightweights and latecomers.

Disclosure: I have a GLD call and an SPY put. I think the likelihood of neither of these bets working out is slim. I think the likelihood of one of these bets working out is very high. Both of them working out would be great, but less likely than one or the other.

[ddkay]

Yeah gold will be interesting to watch, there's a massive HnS forming on the daily gold chart though, it could get slammed equally hard

[gibor]

I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow.

It depends on what he says

[ddkay]

Lol yeah I didn't mean to be ambiguous... I don't think it matters, the markets are setting up for disappointment so it's bad news either way. Inflation is still way too high to consider securities purchases type QE this early on, and skipping QE in any form will probably be interpreted as withdrawal of support.

[Argonaut]

Yeah gold will be interesting to watch, there's a massive HnS forming on the daily gold chart though, it could get slammed equally hard

I see that as well, quite ominous. But gold has smashed through all head and shoulders before. Fundamentals and news will drive it more than chart patterns anyways.

I don't think it likes to sit in the 1700s. We may see a test of 1650 support or 1900 resistance. If gold continues its bull run, in the past year usually the second time it goes for a psychological barrier it manages to break through.

[gibor]

Lol yeah I didn't mean to be ambiguous... I don't think it matters, the markets are setting up for disappointment so it's bad news either way. Inflation is still way too high to consider securities purchases type QE this early on, and skipping QE in any form will probably be interpreted as withdrawal of support.

Maybe you are right, even though I pray you are wrong.

Yes, higher probability for markets to go down , than to go up. On other hand in Jan/Feb the situation was opposite and marker crushed later.

Gold and miners can go either way, imho 60% they go up , 40% - down.

I just hope that Real return bonds, canadian bonds and short term bonds won't get hit hard as I keep them on RESP portfolio that I'll need in range 2-5 years

[gibor]

I read somewhere that in whole US history only 1 time , annual stock market return was negative in 3rd year of the President cycle. Obama should do everything you can in order to lift stock if he want to have a chance to be re-elected.


P.S. sorry, what is it HnS ?

[gibor]

Interesting that 1st time for many days VIX calls less than puts
189,817 vs 271,796 I expected opposite...