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Canadian Oil Sands (COS)

398K views 1K replies 147 participants last post by  Parkuser 
#1 ·
Any thoughts on this stock? Been hit pretty hard lately, 52 week low, 5% dividend. Thinking about taking a position soon.
 
#46 ·
If one has the time horizon, catching certain falling knives of deeply discounted companies that are not broken [and there are many at the moment], is not necessarily a bad strategy, especially since most of us would not be able to pick them up all at once [whenever the upward trend would start].
 
#50 ·
Not everyone is going to have the same buying strategy. I like to buy when beaten down or catch the falling knife with a 3 purchase stage. I have no problems with this and it's worked out in fine in the past. At some point in 30 years, companies will increase profit and value will go up.

If it's just market noise being scared, take advantage and buy at a discount.
 
#54 ·
Maybe we should ask in the astrology thread. I saw on the news that Venus is flying in front of the Sun, and it looks like a full moon is coming too. :) There could be hidden signals in the stars, telling us when to buy stocks. They are sent out by aliens in a world we can't comprehend. I was there, I promise.
 
#55 ·
There is a mistake that most investors are making in terms of how they think about this stock. They are letting the politics and the economy interfere too much in their valuation of this company.

It is solidly profitable with oil around $80 but is certainly more profitable at higher oil prices. Oil prices will be rising in the future but there is a floor to how much they can drop from decreased use in the Western Nations because that pool has been decreasing since 2007. All the new growth has been coming from the industrialization and upward movement of the emerging markets that has caused demand to increase permanently without any increase in new global supplies. One could actually argue that overall supply of oil has been decreasing due to the high cost of production of the new uncoventional oil (deep seawater, shale and oil sands).

So I know in the future that COS will be very profitable and has lots of oil they have yet to extract and they don't have to waste money doing a bunch of exploration to replace reserves that other companies have to do. They spend their money on R&D for extraction of oil sands instead. But the point I'm making is the supply is there and known. As oil becomes harder and harder to find the floor of oil prices is going to fly up higher and higher which is going to lead to higher and higher profits for a company that is highly sensitive to oil prices.

I don't think anyone can go wrong buying here and the dividend is really nice.

I'm not sure this is the bottom but I would suggest people try to average in a bit starting now and buy about 1/3rd of what you want to make sure you lock up some at very low prices. This way you still have some funds to buy more at better prices if they fall some more.

Personally, I like PBN better in the Canadian oil dividend space and it is also a screaming buy at $11 right now with a 8% dividend yield and a single digit P/E and P/B << 1. They also have lots of wells to dig due to their abundance of land leases so there is little exploration risk for them in the future.

In a couple of months people will be kicking themselves for worrying about Europe and Greece and not buying highly profitable dividend paying Cdn oil companies at a large discount.
 
#59 ·
Uranium is also looking good.

If you want safety, buy CCO (Cameco) as they have lots of long-term contracts in place at good prices no matter what happens in the short-term in the world uranium markets. So CCO won't get hurt much by low Uranium prices but they also won't be very levered to an increase in Uranium prices when the price skyrockets due to under-investment in uranium mines because of the low price from salvage of Russian nuclear warheads. That supply is going to run out next year according to my understanding.

In the meantime there is still no viable replacement for nuclear power in the developed world. The natural gas potential is overstated due to rapid depletion of drilled wells in the new shale plays. Alternative energy still isn't there without subsidization for solar and wind. So that leaves nuclear to fill the void but current uranium production isn't even close to meeting current world demand and that doesn't account for all the Chinese and Indian nuclear power plants that are being built or are currently planned.

So if you are a real Uranium bull you are better off with something like UEC which is a smaller mining company out of the USA that does in situ recovery of uranium mostly in Texas. They are a very young firm but are in production and ramping up supply. They should be going at a good clip when the supply crunch hits and the beauty of this one is it has been badly beaten up from Fukushima and from this most recent stock market dip and are selling at quite a bargain right now when many people thought it wasn't going to see 3.50 again anytime soon. The other really good thing about this one for a bull is they sell all their uranium in the spot market so they will skyrocket if the uranium crunch plays out as expected with them feeding in the needed supply in a very inelastic market.
 
#71 ·
I alleviated $6k of margin today.

If things go as planned tomorrow (if), I will sell off another $29,000 worth of stock, which would actually give me about a $1000 cash balance, zer0 margin.

But, since I have been investing, I have always been on margin. Always. There was only about a week where I wasn't. LOL!

Imagine how big my returns would be if I weren't paying hundreds and hundreds in interest? :tongue:
 
#74 ·
Leverage seems to be working for me so far. I am up 8.5% YTD. TSX down 3% YTD. Stressful, though.

Interesting article. Problem is that the article is made with assumptions. Assumptions are bad.

Ironically enough, I sold everything this morning that I had on margin. I am no longer borrowing. lol.
 
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