I think Netflix's mistakes are only starting to come to light and that investors might be in for a long downward spiral. It's time they innovate or face investor backlash haha.
2011 Netflix = 2001 Blockbuster
It's starting to look like it's only downhill from here.
I have to laugh when you hear about some content being lost from Netflix..does anyone think they're going to make money offering $10 individual downloads with someone else? The only reason Netflix makes any money at all is the low price - anything higher and people will rush to the Bay... the Pirate bay that is.
The movie industry is on the cusp of losing all control. Just like the music industry in 1997, when people realized they could download a song in under 5 minutes for free. You can download a 2 hour movie in less than 5 minutes now. People want to pay a reasonable price, but $8.99 for a single VOD on Rogers is _insanity_.
^ Agreed. People might be willing to pay 50 cents for a tv show and maybe $2-4 for a movie. Allow targeted ads (a la Youtube) and you could reduce the cost even more. The rates being asked for on the a la carte video sites is just begging for piracy.
The movie kiosks popping up at Metro and Wal-Mart charge $1 or $2 for a movie. IMO, that's the right price to charge for a movie download. Movie makers seem to be making the same mistakes the music industry did by going after downloaders instead of looking at their business model.
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The studios will try if at all possible to prevent streaming from turning into a low-price minimal margin business. Rentals rely on discs being made available at reasonable prices for mass consumer sale. If that ever goes away, and discs become more for collectors at higher prices, disc rental gets more expensive.
Even if not, the studios are trying to pressure rentals into a separate "window". Warner just recently started trying to prevent Blockbuster from buying its discs, to force it into accepting the current 28-days-after-release-date no-rental window they have with Netflix and Redbox. And I think there are hopes to extend that 28-day window as well. If the studios can swing it, it is possible that there will be a premium streaming window, before cheaper streaming and disc rentals are available. As things move to streaming, the studios have much more control over the content, and will probably want to extract more of the pie for themselves, if they can.
There may be limits to the music comparison - video is more data, people regard and consume it somewhat differently, and even blockheaded media conglomerates must have learned something from the Napster wars...
Netflix has recovered big time year-to-date. Sentiment is changing and people are excited about some streaming numbers released recently. I don't buy it. Earnings release on Jan. 25th. I'm thinking of putting in a short, the options are too expensive.
Netflix up huge after earnings. Glad I didn't play this game. I will stick to gold and silver.