Apple Inc. (AAPL)

[marina628]

I am still crying over selling it at low 400's ...

[m3s]

Don't sweat it GOB, half the haters in here either work for or invested in RIM. You should see how they reacted if you said anything bad about RIM during its time!!

[kcowan]

GOB
You should look into contributing to Seeking Alpha. I follow all my key holdings over there and you get all kinds of useful input. Even the naysayers sometimes make valid points. After all, how can you explain the 2 recent swoons in stock price without understanding the sentiments in the market. Seeking Alpha is at least representative of some of those feelings/opinions.

(There have been contributions using normal metrics that indicate a $1650 price target!)

[GOB]

I do look at seeking alpha. I read a ton of information about the stock, both good and bad and from any source I can find. I consider places where individuals can voice their opinions extremely valuable, which is why I get annoyed when I'm told to shut up and ignore any arguments I don't agree with. I then apply my own thoughts and analysis to interpret all the different information. It's really not difficult but it does take time. From what I can conclude, most of the bear cases stem from rumours and misinterpretation or deliberate moves to shake the weak hands.

For example, AT&T sold fewer smartphones this past quater than their last holiday quarter. Well...obviously holiday sales are going to be greater. The market however interprets that as a drop in iPhone sales without bothering to think about YOY (and therefore seasonally adjusted) numbers, or the fact that international growth is rampant and a couple of carriers in the US don't mean much anymore in terms of total numbers. There is a always some stupid piece that gets interpreted as bad for Apple right before earnings. That's why I wasn't worried, as you can see from my posts. Instead, I booked some profits in existing calls and bought some more in the $560-570 area.

I'm well aware of the factors that move Apple up and down. Frankly, both ways help me make money. The corrections are almost based on misinterpreted data or outright baseless rumours, while the rallies are fundamentally driven - hence my very strong long bias.

Apple at $1650? I'll be called crazy but it's certainly possible. It's funny how people laugh it off when they are happy buying NFLX, AMZN or GOOG.

[moneyisfornothing]

I do look at seeking alpha. I read a ton of information about the stock, both good and bad and from any source I can find. I consider places where individuals can voice their opinions extremely valuable, which is why I get annoyed when I'm told to shut up and ignore any arguments I don't agree with. I then apply my own thoughts and analysis to interpret all the different information. It's really not difficult but it does take time. From what I can conclude, most of the bear cases stem from rumours and misinterpretation or deliberate moves to shake the weak hands.

For example, AT&T sold fewer smartphones this past quater than their last holiday quarter. Well...obviously holiday sales are going to be greater. The market however interprets that as a drop in iPhone sales without bothering to think about YOY (and therefore seasonally adjusted) numbers, or the fact that international growth is rampant and a couple of carriers in the US don't mean much anymore in terms of total numbers. There is a always some stupid piece that gets interpreted as bad for Apple right before earnings. That's why I wasn't worried, as you can see from my posts. Instead, I booked some profits in existing calls and bought some more in the $560-570 area.

I'm well aware of the factors that move Apple up and down. Frankly, both ways help me make money. The corrections are almost based on misinterpreted data or outright baseless rumours, while the rallies are fundamentally driven - hence my very strong long bias.

Apple at $1650? I'll be called crazy but it's certainly possible. It's funny how people laugh it off when they are happy buying NFLX, AMZN or GOOG.

Gob
in all honesty and i am an apple lover, i think that a solid retracement to the 450, even 350 area will be very very healthy.
money managers are overloaded with AAPl.
fundamentals are extraordinary , but at these levels not atractive IMO.
no disregard for fundamentals but i am a buyer on a significant retracement.
right now, IMO this is a selling point.
do not take this the wrong way
cheers and GL

[GOB]

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for $350. That would a 45% retracement from the high - and one heck of a beatdown for a stock with high double digit growth and $120 billion in the bank (and growing).

The current P/E is just over 14 - at $350 it would be 8.5 (less if Apple continues to grow earnings).

That would be ludicrous. I don't think we will ever see the 300s again as long as Apple remains a dominant company. I would say $530 would be a good spot to get in if it ever gets there - that level provides a 2% yield so may provide a solid floor.

[moneyisfornothing]

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for $350. That would a 45% retracement from the high - and one heck of a beatdown for a stock with high double digit growth and $120 billion in the bank (and growing).

The current P/E is just over 14 - at $350 it would be 8.5 (less if Apple continues to grow earnings).

That would be ludicrous. I don't think we will ever see the 300s again as long as Apple remains a dominant company. I would say $530 would be a good spot to get in if it ever gets there - that level provides a 2% yield so may provide a solid floor.

will keep that in mind GOB.
its just my thinking of a large retracement on the spx 500 and as you know the weight of apple on it is very large.
solid company though.
congrats on ur trading of AAPL
cheers

[GOB]

In a market-wide meltdown all bets are off, and Apple can and probably will plummet like any other company. I don't know if it's wise to wait for such an event though as it may be years or decades before it happens. I think the best strategy is to keep putting money in, taking some profits when they are there and always having some cash to deploy if the markets do take a nosedive.

Waiting for a crash may cost you several years of compounding returns. Timing the market is very difficult. Timing individual stocks based on their valuations is much easier.

[moneyisfornothing]

In a market-wide meltdown all bets are off, and Apple can and probably will plummet like any other company. I don't know if it's wise to wait for such an event though as it may be years or decades before it happens. I think the best strategy is to keep putting money in, taking some profits when they are there and always having some cash to deploy if the markets do take a nosedive.

Waiting for a crash may cost you several years of compounding returns. Timing the market is very difficult. Timing individual stocks based on their valuations is much easier.

i partially agree with ur thinking and i do see a retracement on the spx 500.
will it happen?
i think that next month or 2 will tell.
still, GL in ur endeavours.

[sam]

ok so whos buying AAPL today ?