Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO) - Page 2
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Thread: Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO)

  1. #11
    Senior Member humble_pie's Avatar
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    i'm not a gold bug, but long-term i do believe in gold. Barrick or goldcorp are mainstays in many portfolios, imho.

    there was recent insider buying in barrick. Regent is a good ceo imho. Stock may currently be hurt by bad publicity over africa barrick.

    ABX is an absolutely perfect candidate for selling out-of-the-money call options. I recently rolled over july 50s into a mix of january 50s & 55s.

    my cost base in barrick is CAD 35.32. I will be rolling this up slightly - normally i try to keep cost base no more than 15% lower than market, because of the options - so i will be buying 2-3 more lots when prices seem on the low side, then selling the same within a short time frame as prices rise a bit. However i'm not inspired to do this today. What would trigger the manoeuvre is a thumping downward crack in gold - actually a sharp rise in USD - but i don't see this any time soon.


  2. #12
    Senior Member KaeJS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by humble_pie View Post
    my cost base in barrick is CAD 35.32. I will be rolling this up slightly - normally i try to keep cost base no more than 15% lower than market, because of the options - so i will be buying 2-3 more lots when prices seem on the low side, then selling the same within a short time frame as prices rise a bit. However i'm not inspired to do this today. What would trigger the manoeuvre is a thumping downward crack in gold - actually a sharp rise in USD - but i don't see this any time soon.
    That is a very nice cost base.

    I think I will average down if it continues to drop. Like you said, though, I was not inspired to do that today.
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  3. #13
    Senior Member KaeJS's Avatar
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    Almost getting close to a 52wk low.

    Stock has hit over $50+ 7 times since January 2008.

    Now trading at $42.

    Traders dreamstock, but risky as fk..

    I'm still holding in!
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  5. #14
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    I'd still wait. The down trend in stocks will likely last for many more months. If historical patterns hold, it'll get below the March 09 low of 6,547 -- or 8000ish adjusted for real inflation (roughly 9% for the last two years according to shadowstats.com).

    I wouldn't expect Barrick to drop as much as other stocks, since gold buying accelerates in fall, and owning Barrick is also an inflation hedge.

  6. #15
    Senior Member KaeJS's Avatar
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    Thanks for that opinion, Mark.

    It seems like most people on here are not too fond of Barrick.
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  7. #16
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    Personally, I'm waiting for DJIA of around 10,000 before jumping into the market. I don't mind jumping in 20% off the theoretical bottom as I'm investing for the long term... but if the dead cat is still falling back to earth from its bounce, why get underneath it?

    The only thing that would screw it up is accelerated money printing. They most certainly won't call it quantitative easing as enough people have associated that with money printing and bank bailouts. If they do continue the money printing, I'll jump in, as the decline won't last too long in dollar terms as inflation will outpace the bottom end of the decline.

    http://home.earthlink.net/~intellige...om-dj-infl.htm

    There are a lot of lemmings jumping into the market today on "good" consumer spending reports. Spending declined 0.2% less than expected -- but that's still a decline -- at a time when the price of food and fuel is rising. The economy is not well at all.

    And remember the GDP numbers are phony: as they include public spending, they're not a measure of productivity. And as inflation is under-reported, economic "growth" is over-stated. So if they say GDP growth is 3%, and real inflation is 9% not 0%, that's a 6% contraction.

    But back to Barrick, they're well positioned in two ways: gold and copper. When the US hyperinflates (I doubt they'll default, and it's one or the other) Barrick wins from a reduction in its debt in real terms and from having real money or even just tangible assets. And Asia is in a long term bull market, and copper is used in all sorts of things. Yes, emerging markets will get hit hard here shortly, but they'll bounce back due to real growth. Barring bad management or externalities, Barrick should continue to rake in real value in the long term. And if the world returns to real money (gold, silver, and sometimes copper), Barrick will be worth an immeasurable fortune.

  8. #17
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    I don't believe the Feds will let Dow to fall even to 11000 level. They will do it by money printing or any other measure. From 1940 3rd year of presidential cycle was bullish, so don't think this one will be exception...
    and I'm not talking about real value and market value, car that you buy now for 35K, also doesn't cost that much.

    "Personally, I'm waiting for DJIA of around 10,000 before jumping into the market. and if it's not happens? will you be sitting in cash until retirement?!
    Last edited by gibor; 2011-06-15 at 02:54 AM.

  9. #18
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    It might be time to think about getting into precious metals mining stocks again...

    http://www.financialsense.com/contri...kely-days-away

  10. #19
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    However, this is not another 2008. Then there was credit stress in the private sector and not on the sovereign side. Oil and inflation cut into margins of the miners and there was forced selling as hedge funds blew up. We don’t see any of these problems today.
    This person is talking like no one uses margin anymore. We're only in the most over-leveraged market since the peak of the credit bubble: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/...=50&category=8

    Sovereign debt is the core of our financial system. What we could see in coming years is credit stress on both the sovereign side and the private sector.
    Last edited by ddkay; 2011-06-20 at 02:51 PM.

  11. #20
    Senior Member KaeJS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rose View Post
    It might be time to think about getting into precious metals mining stocks again...

    http://www.financialsense.com/contri...kely-days-away
    I hope so, Barrick Gold is killing my portfolio right now. I made the mistake of buying in too early at $46.55 apparently.

    Shouldn't this thing be up at $50 where it belongs?

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