Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO) - Page 10
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Thread: Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO)

  1. #91
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    I got out a few years ago at a loss. I'd considered getting back in but honestly it seems that if I'm going to jump into the Oil Sands I'd consider a different name with "less" risk.

    Just my opinion, based on hunches and headlines, there could be significant gains here, but too uncertain for my conservative portfolio.


  2. #92
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    I think the oil industry is in for headwinds for a very long time. Absent short periods of perhaps 1-3 years of 'higher' prices, there doesn't seem to be long term fundamentals here to support upward oil prices. Global oil demand will most likely start shrinking within a few years as renewables really take hold and energy storage becomes even more cost effective. You know the movement has gotten traction when China is making a big shift towards renewables. I suspect India will get on that wagon soon too and then the USA will wake up 5-10 years hence...despite Republican ostriches to the contrary. IMO, the oil companies and service companies are not long term stories. They are consolidation stories. I am staying out of them.

  3. #93
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    I have some CVE.
    Personally I like the company, keep in mind I have done work for a lot of companies and Cenovus was the one I was always most fond of. I got in for my first buy in the low 17's and picked up some more in the 14's. I thought we were far down enough at that time that pushing it any further was going to miss the bottom. Guess I was wrong on that one.
    I am interested to see what happens tomorrow as I think the deal closed today. I would buy more but I am more interested to see what happens once Conoco starts liquidating the 208 million shares. Which is weird that Conoco immediately announced they plan to liquidate immediately once the lock up is completed. I don't see that being an easy thing to liquidate in a short period of time. If I have read correctly Conoco owns something around 16% of Cenovus.

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  5. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by AltaRed View Post
    You know the movement has gotten traction when China is making a big shift towards renewables.
    You shouldn't over-rate the shift:

    http://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2017...er-statistics/

    Wind and solar are minor players in Chinese electricity generation, and electricity only accounts for a portion of total energy usage.
    Last edited by accord1999; 2017-05-18 at 11:58 PM.

  6. #95
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    That will change as they have signed on for climate change abatement.

    However, the more important thing for this thread in particular (as it pertains to oil) is the move to EVs and thus limited growth, if any, in the consumption of oil.

  7. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by AltaRed View Post
    That will change as they have signed on for climate change abatement.
    China's self-declared goal for Paris is to peak their CO2 emissions by 2030.

    However, the more important thing for this thread in particular (as it pertains to oil) is the move to EVs and thus limited growth, if any, in the consumption of oil.
    And China has the biggest new car market in the world and its oil consumption is still growing.

  8. #97
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    You miss the point that a superliner does not turn on a dime. There will be a lag in curtailing both coal fired generation and oil consumption, perhaps even 5 more years, but once the momentum has shifted and the statistics prove it, the 'wake' that comes with it could be substantial. One has to look out 5-10 years, not what is happening today.

    Another example: It took me a long time to consider buying ATD.B since I foresee a shift in USA and Europe to EVs and there will be headwinds in the next 5-10 years on the profitability of gasoline stations and convenience stores. Sales will stagnate... if noti in the next 2-5 years, then shortly after that.

    Added later: The two wild cards are obviously China and India. I think it is pretty clear where China is ultimately going (reduced oil demand - eventually) but India remains uncertain given it is an operating democracy with little ability to impose major top down policy changes. For one, China does not want to be beholden (vulnerable) to oil producing countries more than it has too, so there is an incentive to electrify much of its oil based consumption. How they do it without building more coal fired power plants (that are not already in development/construction) remains an open question.

    Last edited by AltaRed; 2017-05-19 at 11:37 AM.

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