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Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO)

39K views 112 replies 32 participants last post by  moderator2 
#1 ·
this one looks pretty good right now, anyone buying?
 
#61 ·
Hi KJS. Sorry another dumb question--LOL. Right now CVE is trading at 21.79. If CVE goes over $22 before April 17/15 is their a good chance that you will be exercised and have to give up your 1000 shares of CVE at an earlier date then April 17/15?

So basically your collecting $330 in premium income. The worst that can happen to you is that you have to give up your 1000 shares of CVE at $22?
 
#67 ·
Goldman Sachs (I believe) recently came out with an analysis that says oil has gotten ahead of itself and while it might increase slightly this year after another dip, longer term, GS is forecasting even lower Brent prices in the years to come (approximately no higher in 2020 than today).

I wouldn't be putting any new money in the oil patch very quickly without some concerted effort by OPEC/Saudi (change in policy) to shore up prices.
 
#69 ·
Any new thoughts on this with the news on the 3.3 billion sale?
CVE is something I have been watching for a while now, never pulled the trigger and there are other things I wish to take on before CVE.

Much like Alta said I am not too sure about putting money into oil right now. It's clear to me that anything can happen. But I am interested to see what you guys think about CVE with the new sale?
 
#71 ·
I averaged down on Cenovus last December, hoping the oil price thing would be (relatively) short lived. Alas, I'm regretting it, it's the biggest drag on my small RRSP portfolio, and like many others I'm expecting the dividend to get cut at some point. To what though is the big question.
 
#75 ·
Market has responded well to this news. Although I am disappointed in the loss of the 3% Drip discount but I am fine with the dividend cut.
I think CVE is a excellent buy right now and will go a long way in the future. I will probably pick up another 50 shares just to keep me dripping.
 
#83 · (Edited)
Sharp drop this morning ......

I guess the market isn't that keen on Cenovus spending 17.7B$. I dunno, what's everyones take on this? sure makes them higher risk....seems to be a theme here of the big internationals leaving the oilsands.....Could be fantastic for the Canadian players that seem to be "gathering" up the oilsands assets......or really terrible if oil doesn't recover a bit here in the near future.....
 
#85 ·
Have to take a look and see how bad the debt is, but CVE doesn't exactly have a big dividend they have to pay. They're issuing about 50% more shares for 100% more production and reserves. 5 years from now, this will probably look really good, but 5 years is a long way away. I would say the market doesn't like the contigency payments they have to make if oil spikes in the next 5 years, doesn't like that ConocoPhillips intends to sell all of their shares in 6 months (pretty dumb of them to announce that right away), and they own 25% of the company, and that they bought a huge pile of conventional assets which will require major capital to develop. Finally, given how many people are leaving, it's unlikely there's any takeover premium in the stock. At $15/share, it's a lot of value though. I can't see it going much lower.
 
#86 ·
Doesn't say a lot though at least in the near term to have Statoil leave, Total leave, Shell leave and now COP. It is now a bet on new pipelines and significantly improved crude prices.
 
#87 ·
They're all selling their assets at 50-60% of replacement value. Do you want to own the company selling or buying those assets? If 2 of 4 (KXL/TM/L3/EE) major pipelines get done, then there will be excess takeaway capacity in 2020 and beyond. There are approx zero mega projects due to come online after the end of next year. Any projects beyond that are all incremental ones - I heard 100k barrels in all of 2019, which is ~3% production growth and 1/11 of Energy East.
 
#88 ·
The big boys don't throw in the towel lightly. They've all seen major decisions like this before. Having worked for a muti-national myself, these decisions take thousands of manhours of analysis and debate at all levels of management and the Board. They clearly think it is worthwhile to take their marbles elsewhere for whatever reason.

That said, the lending institutions obviously think their loans will be safe. Time will tell.
 
#90 ·
time to buy?

Hi,

I've been watching CVE for a long time and am a small holder through the oil decline :(
It seems that I have let the CVE shares decline enough, they could either be used in the future as a tax-loss harvest or I could average down the cost (initial position was bought around $24-25 per share).

I know that the market didn't respond favorably to the Conoco 17b dollar deal and more shares were issued. At $12.70/share, with WTI at ~$49.50/barrel I'm really starting to think that there is an approximate 30% upside with a target price around $17-18 per share (these figures are based on research reports/analysts and previous trading prices relative to oil prices.

What do people think of this stock?
 
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