Intel (INTC)

[m3s]

I've posted my distaste for this stock in the various INTC threads already started over the years.

The only stocks I've adamantly talked down pre-crash: YLO, RIM, and INTC. INTC still has the server market, just like RIM has the business market and YLO has the old-timers. Tech is dangerous. There's no reason why a smaller, more efficient technology can't translate to everything else eventually. Intel chips were a poor value for the average user even in its hay day (which is obviously a plus for investors) but now they will have to compete on value or something besides leading tech.. *Owns ARMH for years

[PMREdmonton]

Why must margins be so much worse on mobile chips?

I can understand if they cost less per chip so they earn less on that basis. But why are margins going to be so much worse if they become dominant in chip production and can produce for much lower prices do to their strength in chip fabrication as well as some premium due to superior performance?

[PMREdmonton]

If tech is so volatile, why will ARM dominant for so long?

With their dominance in R&D and fabrication I can easily envision them dominating within a couple of years.

I remember at one point in time everyone thought Intel was woefully behind AMD in chip production that they could not catch up (around 2004) but within a couple of years they were far ahead again and never looked back.

I do know they have made some breakthroughs in producing thinner chips that will make them run faster and power efficient than anyone else's. There is also the issue of the 3-D chips which they have now produced with similar advantages in power and power consumption. They have a huge advantage in their R&D budget to transition these advantages into new chips built specifically for performance in mobile devices.

I guess I just don't see ARM dominating in perpetuity given Intel's other advantages. Time will tell.

I still do see some more downside, though. I'd like to buy around 18-19 and think that will be the bottom so I'll see puts at 20 or so once they are a bit weaker so I can get a bit more premium.

[m3s]

If tech is so volatile, why will ARM dominant for so long?

I guess I just don't see ARM dominating in perpetuity given Intel's other advantages. Time will tell.

Of course ARM won't dominate in perpetuity. I don't marry any stock in perpetuity.. Things change overtime, and eventually I will sell ARM. Intel was a great stock for years, it just doesn't pass the smell test for me anymore. The risk is there, and the upward potential is not worth it yet imo. I don't like when I keep hearing things like "they might catch up in 2013" etc.. Sure and RIM will release a smartphone next year as well, in the meantime everyone else has progressed or deepened their brand power etc. I'll wait until they do actually "catch up" in the mobile market because the stock price will usually lag the reaction anyways. Unless they suddenly release something groundbreaking, which is unlikely given how their corporate culture was towards smartphones.

[thenegotiator]

I've posted my distaste for this stock in the various INTC threads already started over the years.

The only stocks I've adamantly talked down pre-crash: YLO, RIM, and INTC. INTC still has the server market, just like RIM has the business market and YLO has the old-timers. Tech is dangerous. There's no reason why a smaller, more efficient technology can't translate to everything else eventually. Intel chips were a poor value for the average user even in its hay day (which is obviously a plus for investors) but now they will have to compete on value or something besides leading tech.. *Owns ARMH for years

hmmm.
I have been thinking about this post.
I do not buy stocks for their TASTE.
i like to taste scotch whiskey/wine.
i do not eat them or smell them neither touch them stocks.
I trade them.
It is that simple.
nothing out of the ordinary.
i am a very simple guy .... and a contrarian.

[m3s]

hmmm.
I have been thinking about this post.
I do not buy stocks for their TASTE.
i like to taste scotch whiskey/wine.

I'm a contrarian as well, and I would argue that buying INTC is not really contrarian yet. It's still an adored brand.

I don't taste them so to speak, but I smell the stale corporate culture and that implies a bad taste to me. What technical analysis or number can show you anything about that? How many people will want to pay $500 for a processor anymore? How many more cores can we possibly use? Their industry has changed and they ignored it

When I taste scotch, I avoid something I sense might give me alcohol poisoning when there are so many great ones to chose

[thenegotiator]

I think I'll buy some - I'll buy a limit order of 21.

I think I'll also sell some 20 puts for the early spring.

and u just cannot get it for 21 bux.
i am sure u noticed the mkt selloff today right?
maybe 19?

[PMREdmonton]

Actually decided only to sell $20 puts in the end for April.

[Snuff_the_Rooster]

and u just cannot get it for 21 bux.
i am sure u noticed the mkt selloff today right?
maybe 19?

Yes I've been noticing the same thing and so I was forced in sub $22, with a hedge of course, until next spring.

I'd prefer $18 and maybe we'll get a chance there too.

There's just too many NDX stocks on their 200ma not to at least give it a shot after not being long any of this stuff for quite a while now.

[thenegotiator]

technicals
RSI convergence starting to show in the chart.
i think i bought too few.
time to load up.
my .02 cents.
thoughts?

Yes I've been noticing the same thing and so I was forced in sub $22, with a hedge of course, until next spring.

I'd prefer $18 and maybe we'll get a chance there too.

There's just too many NDX stocks on their 200ma not to at least give it a shot after not being long any of this stuff for quite a while now.

i thought i mentioned the above a couple of days ago.
did I not?