Average investors beat Dollar Cost Averaging

[GOB]

Share buybacks are actually criticized for buying at high valuations, rather than opportunistically buying when valuations fall. If you look at the buyback volume over the past few years, the peak was in 2007, and the volume of buybacks fell precipitously in the 2008 panic. Companies with strong balance sheets could have added a lot of shareholder value through buybacks (*cough* Apple *cough*).

You and I can agree on something Apple related. Never thought I'd see the day!

[GoldStone]

Lephturn, thanks for the link. Very interesting. I have an issue with this quote, though:

it's the epic running stockpickers vs indexers debate, right, lepht ?

This is one of the studies often cited in those discussions - yes.

I don't think so.

DALBAR study has nothing to do with the long-running debate between DIY stock pickers and DIY indexers.

The study is often cited in a different discussion altogether. The discussion about Doing-It-Yourself (of any kind) vs. Hiring a professional adviser.

Advisers love to cite DALBAR to highlight the value they add to the client portfolios.

Look at the DALBAR gap, they point out. Those foolish DIY investors engage in a self-destructing behaviour. They chase last year's winners. They buy high. They sell low. They need *us* to protect them from themselves.

Nothing to do with DIY indexing vs. DIY stock picking, don't you agree?

[andrewf]

You and I can agree on something Apple related. Never thought I'd see the day!

I made that point before. You said they need $50 billion in cash to get good terms on components.

[CanadianCapitalist]

Share buybacks are actually criticized for buying at high valuations, rather than opportunistically buying when valuations fall.

Good point on share buybacks Andrew.

[Lephturn]

DALBAR study has nothing to do with the long-running debate between DIY stock pickers and DIY indexers.

The study is often cited in a different discussion altogether. The discussion about Doing-It-Yourself (of any kind) vs. Hiring a professional adviser.
<snip>
Nothing to do with DIY indexing vs. DIY stock picking, don't you agree?

In reality it has nothing to do with it I agree. It is also common for DALBAR and studies like it to be used as "evidence" for other arguments where they do not apply.

I'm glad you found value in the article and the discussion, I know I have.

[GOB]

I made that point before. You said they need $50 billion in cash to get good terms on components.

I'd be surprised if I actually quoted that number. I remember listing a few reasons why Apple holds onto their cash, but I was never against a dividend/buyback, as long as they kept dry powder available. Regardless, they've had over $50B for quite some time now.

[Rusty O'Toole]

It should be obvious that when times are good and stocks are high more people have money to invest. When the economy goes to hell, unemployment is high, business is in the dumpster and the stock market crashing is when people have no money to invest and must sell their investments to live.

So why should it be surprising that most new money comes in at the peak and goes out at the bottom?

Now if you are a serious investor who is involved with the markets for the long term this is one of the things you have to take into account. There is also the psychological effect that makes it easy to follow the herd and buy high - sell low, and very hard to buy at the bottom even though you know it is the thing to do and can prove mathematically that it is the time to buy.