And if I had not put that post in - do you want to see where this post would have went. It would have no resemblance to an investing post whatsoever. And the mods would have had to step in for sure.
Originally Posted by Toronto.gal
I've been lately holidaying in Quebec...I see no real separatist momentum here. From Montreal all the way to the tip of Gaspe (Gaspesie as I was corrected by a friendly Francophone) I saw more Canadian flags , a willingness to tolererate my high school French, and a real welcome to this redneck from Alberta.
I don't think La Belle Province will ever go anywhere regardless of unscrupulous politicians and media.
In the short term, bond yields would rise and our currency would drop as foreign investors wait to see how things play themselves out.
In the long-term, I'm not sure what would happen as I don't know how separation would work. Can anyone remember the details of the 1995 referendum? I remember Quebec wanted a disproportionate amount of the Canadian military's assets, but of more importance to me what were Quebec's views on the following?
- what happens to the currency? Would we share the dollar and the bank of Canada long-term, or did Quebec intend to establish their own central bank?
- How was the debt to be divided between the 2 countries? On a per-capita basis?
- What effect would this have on Canadian shipping? The port of Montreal is one of the biggest ports in the world, and the Saint Lawrence waterway is a major part of the Canadian economy. I imagine Quebec did not want to share this waterway, rather charge Canadian shippers exorbitant fees for the use of the port and waterways.
Any discussion on the above points last time around?
I don't believe there is any chance of an actual separation of Quebec.
Not even Greece is that foolish (separating from Europe, in their case).
If Quebec separation does somehow come to pass, the effects are quite unpredictable and I suspect TSX stocks as well as the CAD will vacillate for several weeks/months until the precise details of the separation are ironed out.
I do not, however, see the CAD weakening as a result.
In fact, the CAD ought to strengthen.
I also doubt that even in the extreme case of a separation, Quebec will print its own currency and maintain a Central Bank of its own.
More likely, it will share the CAD in a similar arrangement as the one proposed by Iceland in sharing the CAD.
I agree that Quebec will want to share our currency and central bank, but would Canada agree to let them share our currency and central bank? I believe this was one of the draws to the "No" vote in 1995, Quebecers were warned by the "No" side that separation would mean complete independence from Canada, ie no shared institutions, agreements, currencies etc.
Originally Posted by HaroldCrump
Don't think a PQ win will affect the TSX but since it was asked about the politics of it all ain't gonna happen.
The whiners had their day in the sun and did the true natives/aboriginals of Quebec area have their thoughts voiced.
Out west we are more concerned about getting the crops in right now!
As I type this, we are mere hours away from knowing the results.
I have always understood that foreign investors move their money to where they perceive to be the most political and fiscal stability--be that Canada or somewhere else.
The key word here is "perceive." Foreign investors who take the time to research and understand the country where they hold their investments won't budge even if (as is highly likely) the PQ wins, or even if (possibly) they win a majority. Foreign investors who react in knee-jerk fashion based on limited knowledge and understanding might go elsewhere.
Originally Posted by Belguy
My guess is the PQ will win, either with enough for a narrow majority or a minority, and I also think Québec Solidaire will have a surprisingly strong showing. We'll see.
Originally Posted by Ethan
i would not agree with this version. Although there has always been academic discussion about how to handle the thornier problems of a quebec separation vote, in 1995 quebecers did *not* flinch from a Yes vote nor did they turn to a No vote at the last minute because they were worried about a central bank which most, in fact, had never even heard of.
quebecers were not "warned" that separation would mean no shared institutions, currencies etc. As a matter of fact a striking characteristic of quebec sovereignist groups is that they tend to believe they will continue enjoying the benefits of federal passports, currency & military support for whatever flood, ice storm or disaster befalls them.
people who lived through 1995 referendum day believe that what flunked the referendum was the obtuseness - indeed the ridiculousness - of the printed question that voters found on their ballots.
here it is. Anyone can see why it was doomed from the getgo.
Do you agree that Québec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill respecting the future of Québec and of the agreement signed on 12 June 1995?
the No's, who were the federalist vote, won by the slimmest of margins. Less than one-half of one per cent.
What is the largest employer in Quebec? The federal government. Why Quebecers think that they could succeed on their terms and somehow not lose all of the federal employment - not to mention transfer payments - is beyond me.
Oh well - down south of us they think they can somehow reduce their massive deficit and debt by cutting taxes - so self delusion is clearly political reality all around.