2012-09-09, 09:58 PM
Couldnt you take out some black swan insurance with a far off expiration date to cover you threw all these weeklies if the worst were to happen?
2012-09-10, 03:40 PM
I could do that, but even far OTM puts are quite expensive. I'll wait for Jan 2015 options and $700+ and take a look then.
Originally Posted by Dopplegangerr
Looks like we won't be seeing $700 this week. Part of this drop is due to people getting ahead of the typical "sell the news" trend that iPhone launches tend to have. The other part may be the patent allegations going around. Samsung has said they will immediately sue Apple if the new iPhone has LTE. HTC has also validated their LTE patents (but have not proven infringement). Both these cases (as far as I can tell) are very similar to the assertions that Samsung lost in the last trial - standards essential patents that are already licensed to chip providers such as Intel and Qualcomm that have Apple as a customer. They are trying to double dip and cast Apple as an infringer when they are doing nothing wrong. Bottom line, it's an abuse of the patent system and has almost no chance of holding up in court. If patent concerns are cause of the selloff, it may continue a while longer and make a great buying opportunity.
Last edited by GOB; 2012-09-10 at 04:20 PM.
2012-09-10, 06:36 PM
although it looks to me like aapl options are cycle 1 (ie the primary cycle is jan-apr-jul-oct) & therefore the 2015 leaps should be out soon, nevertheless my observations have always been that newly-issued US leaps for the farthest years are always afflicted with Severe Montreal Syndrome in their first few months.
in other words they have humungous spreads, are not liquid & basically are nothing to play with. With other US leaps, it would be typical that 2015 spreads don't become normal until liquidity builds up, which is usually after january of the new year ...
however with aapl everything is compressed & exaggerated. Who knows, maybe the 2015s can get over Severe MS in a couple of weeks.
2012-09-10, 09:00 PM
They will probably be expensive at the start but I don't think the spreads will be bad. There will be some pretty decent volume for AAPL.
Terrible day. Hoping $660 holds...
2012-09-13, 10:13 AM
Bought to Close: 1 AAPL 14SEP12 $670.00 P @ $2.20: -$220.68 (Total profit $798.66)
Sold: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $675.00 P @ $9.40: +$939.30
2012-09-17, 01:38 PM
Apologies for the lack of an update. I made a couple more trades last week trying to catch up to AAPL's incredible run
Bought to Close: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $675.00 P @ $6.25: -$626.06 (Total profit $313.24)
Sold: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $680.00 P @ $8.40: +$838.92
Bought to Close: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $680.00 P @ $3.75: -$376.06 (Total profit $462.86)
Sold: 1 AAPL 21SET12 $690.00 P @ $7.05: +$703.93
Apple is up today in a down market, just missing the $700 mark. 2 million iPhone 5 preorders (sold out in an hour), inevitable massive lineups this Friday, and an all but certain upcoming iPad Mini announcement, all going into the always strong holiday quarter. There is a long way to go for this stock, but I am hoping for a less rapid rise, for my own greedy reasons.
The reason I'm not concerned too much about Android is that profit share for Apple is much higher, and also iOS devices are used far more than their Android counterparts. Though iPhone market share is relatively low, their share of web traffic is much, much larger. iPads account for 91% of tablet web traffic. This leads to the conclusion that in general, people who actually use their mobile devices choose Apple. That tells me all I need to know.
2012-09-17, 05:09 PM
My way way WAY more conservative trade closed today.
08/22/2012 O STO AAPL Oct12 615 Put 1 $12.98 $7.47 $1,290.50
08/22/2012 O BTO AAPL Oct12 585 Put 1 $6.99 $7.48 ($706.48)
09/17/2012 O BTC AAPL Oct12 615 Put 1 $1.89 $7.48 ($196.48)
09/17/2012 O STC AAPL Oct12 585 Put 1 $0.94 $7.47 $86.52
Total Realized Gain/Loss for AAPL $474.06
The column between the option price and the total in/out is commissions and fees. I had an order sitting there to close it when I had about $ 500 of the possible $ 600 in the bank.
That is % 19.91 Return on Margin. That does not mean I borrowed on margin - it means I had to set aside $ 3,000 in cash that I could not invest or trade - less the $ 619.96 credit I took in initially. So my return was $ 474.06 / $ 2,380.04. A good return for 27 days.
Looking for a new spread now. I was too slow on doing my ratio backspread prior to the announcement - it started running on me about a week before I thought it would. Oh well.
Last edited by Lephturn; 2012-09-17 at 11:10 PM.
Reason: Edit to add ROM %
2012-09-18, 10:12 AM
Nice trades Lephturn
Bought to Close: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $690.00 P @ $2.68: -$268.68 (Total profit $435.25)
Sold: 1 AAPL 21SEP12 $695.00 P @ $4.25: +$424.31
2012-09-18, 11:43 AM
aren't these beautiful. This thread is one of the best options teaching modules i have ever seen.
look how lephturn is taking in close to $500/month while tying up almost no capital & not spending very much time. Effortless.
look how gob is taking in close to (gasp) $500/week. He's tied up more capital - about 35k i believe - but he's got an exceptional strength that 99.9% of us lack. I for one certainly don't have it. Gob can make the right decisions so fast you'd never be able to see him move. Personally i don't think he's using an iPhone. I think he receives data direct to the brain & beams his orders to the broker. Effortless.
2012-09-18, 01:43 PM
Thanks humble, very kind words. I'm confident in my trading but I still think the real challenge is yet to come - when I'm holding shares in the red.
If you think my decision making and trading speed is good now, wait until I get the iPhone 5 with LTE!