(ARNA) Arena Pharma! (67% in June!)

[PMREdmonton]

The clinical endpoint in weight loss was not all that impressive for those who are majorly obese and the pill isn't approved for use in those who are "just trying to lose those last ten pounds". Furthermore, all weight lost is regained once the medication has stopped. I might be happier if the degree of weight loss was 20% which is really what most of these guys need but it was only around 5% which probably isn't going to be enough to have a major effect on all the major disease end points related to obesity. I am also fairly confident that this medication has not been proven to affect those end points either.

Anyhow, it probably does bode well for its competitor's approval as well but I'm not convinced either is going to be the panacea that anyone was hoping for from these medications.

I can see these meds selling reasonably well for a couple of years before seeing a fall off in sales.

The only thing that really helps the majorly obese is diet and exercise for the few who can change their lifestyle or more likely some form of gastric reduction as barbaric as it is.

[Toronto.gal]

1. The clinical endpoint in weight loss was not all that impressive for those who are majorly obese....
2. all weight lost is regained once the medication has stopped.
3. only around 5% which probably isn't going to be enough to have a major effect on all the major disease end points related to obesity.
4. The only thing that really helps the majorly obese is diet and exercise....

1. Like with any condition, I don't think any single pill [now or in future], will ever be safe and effective for all, hence all the testing before and after approval.

The drug in question however, was approved for 'overweight/obese' adults, with at least one weight-related condition, so by the sounds of it, not really intended for the 'majorly obese'.

I'm not sure what the stats are with respect to 'majorly obese' compared to 'obese' and 'overweight', but I imagine that in cases of the morbidly obese [BMI of 40+], other drastic/surgical measures will still be an option, as for some patients, it's a life/death situation.

2. True enough as only surgery can shrink one's stomach [to my understanding], but medication could help with controlling appetite and sticking to a diet [ofc many fail even regular diets].

3. This is supposed to be the lost weight after 12 weeks of treatment, but if successful and treatment would be continued, maybe more could be lost?

4. True, a pill is not supposed to replace diet & exercise anyway, it's simply an addition.

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than one-third of adults in the United States are obese."
http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsro.../ucm309993.htm

[bigbadbull]

share price is taking an ugly hit today

[PMREdmonton]

I just don't think the clinical end-points for this drug are all that impressive.

I suspect the members of the public who buy this hoping for success either for health or aesthetics will quickly become disenchanted.

I also suspect most drug insurance companies are going to put up major roadblocks for who they will fund for this pill. If they aren't going to fund it I am not sure how many people are going to pay for it out of pocket indefinitely because the effect wears off as soon as you stop it.

[Lucy]

She might be on the move again. 13% today. Higher lows looking for a breakout above $11.68.

[londoncalling]

Mr. Cramer pumped this one today.