Cyclical p/e, Q-ratio, Regression to Trend, market timing....
All of the above are alternative ways of valuing the market, and all of them suggest the market right now is expensive on a long term historical basis: 30-45% over-valued. (It was just below fairly valued during the depths of '09, according to each of the above measuring sticks.)
That doesn't mean you can't make money. Fish do swim upstream, and the strong ones or the lucky ones make it.
But if you accept these approaches to market valuation, you might be inclined to wait a few years if you want to swim with the current.
Are Cyclical p/e, Q-ratio, Regression to Trend valid?
Just throwing this out for comment!