Complacency about Canadian banks - Page 16
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Thread: Complacency about Canadian banks

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by mark0f0 View Post
    ... The data I use is proprietary, so I can't share it. Ross Kay came to the same conclusion with a different method of analysis (he publishes some of his stuff publicly). But needless to say, the median price has grown dramatically faster than the mean price, making it pretty obvious that there has been a dramatic shift to the sales mix responsible for most of the claimed gains. Quite conveniently the Realtor-types resist the public publication of complete datasets.
    It seems then that my experience with both real estate and RY share performance in the past 10 years are at odds with yours.
    RK has a service to sell so his public stuff is actually not that insightful IMO. Certainly his data isn't available either.
    ISTM that if realtor-types were to make their complete datasets available, the future of his service and podcasts might be short-lived. But by now I suppose he must be incredibly wealthy anyway.


  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by OnlyMyOpinion View Post
    It seems then that my experience with both real estate and RY share performance in the past 10 years are at odds with yours.
    Well the discrepancy was quoting in CAD$ versus USD$. The point I made, that banks have been awful investments compared to RE at similar levels of effective leverage was still valid nonetheless.

    RK has a service to sell so his public stuff is actually not that insightful IMO. Certainly his data isn't available either.
    ISTM that if realtor-types were to make their complete datasets available, the future of his service and podcasts might be short-lived. But by now I suppose he must be incredibly wealthy anyway.
    So everyone has a credibility problem. The Realtors. Me. Ross Kay. But the macro data, that of no great stimulation of consumer demand due to rising RE prices, definitely doesn't point to any great RE mania beyond that which existed in 2013. Bank credit figures do not show any meaningful expansion beyond the usual. The "foreign money" thesis has been disproven as junk. The only piece of the puzzle that doesn't seem to be supported is the idea that there's been appreciation on individual units. Its quite easy to see that there's been significant mix driven changes. RE bulls will, of course, deny, deny, deny that the mix is highly influential, but with so many newly delivered units in the GTA/GVR marketplaces, and with first time buyers locked out of the market substantially, its pretty obvious.

    HCG only being able to use their mortgages at 50% collateral to obtain secured financing is another datapoint in support of no recent appreciation.
    Last edited by mark0f0; 2017-05-13 at 01:39 AM.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by mark0f0 View Post

    The data I use is proprietary, so I can't share it. .
    I am sending you a bill for the new keyboard. You made me laugh so hard that I spilled my morning coffee on the keyboard.

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  5. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by mark0f0 View Post
    Well the discrepancy was quoting in CAD$ versus USD$. The point I made, that banks have been awful investments compared to RE at similar levels of effective leverage was still valid nonetheless.



    So everyone has a credibility problem. The Realtors. Me. Ross Kay. But the macro data, that of no great stimulation of consumer demand due to rising RE prices, definitely doesn't point to any great RE mania beyond that which existed in 2013. Bank credit figures do not show any meaningful expansion beyond the usual. The "foreign money" thesis has been disproven as junk. The only piece of the puzzle that doesn't seem to be supported is the idea that there's been appreciation on individual units. Its quite easy to see that there's been significant mix driven changes. RE bulls will, of course, deny, deny, deny that the mix is highly influential, but with so many newly delivered units in the GTA/GVR marketplaces, and with first time buyers locked out of the market substantially, its pretty obvious.

    HCG only being able to use their mortgages at 50% collateral to obtain secured financing is another datapoint in support of no recent appreciation.
    - the "foreign money" thesis has not been disproven at all. There is shortage of data but we know that foreign and particularly Chinese buyers are heavily invested http://business.financialpost.com/ne...ndlords-or-not

    - "Bank credit figures do not show any meaningful expansion beyond the usual" - completely false. Here are the actual data which talk about unprecendented expansion of household debt, fueled by low interest and mortgages: https://www.thestar.com/business/201...h-quarter.html.

    Suppose if you are trying to prove that 2x2=5 then you have to also claim that 2x3=7.

  6. #155
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    Here's some non proprietary data that's relevant to the bank situation. Basically, the bankruptcy rates in Canada have been steadily declining in the last few years. I don't anticipate any kind of trouble with our banks unless this rate spikes up. However, if BK rates rise, the banks are certainly vulnerable to this.

    can-bankruptcy-2016-09.png


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