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How did you do in 2016?

28K views 109 replies 56 participants last post by  Tawcan 
#1 ·
2016 was a very good year for the markets.

I don't do any fancy return calculations, but our 40/60 Fixed Income/Equity retirement portfolio produced a simple return of 20%. By simple return, I mean (Final balance-Beginning balance+withdrawals)/Beginning balance = 20%.

I am sure most of you did well too.
 
#2 ·
A good year is when you follow your method which gives you an edge & you make or lose money

A bad year is when you don't follow your method & you lose money

A real bad year is when you make money & don't follow your method

2016 could only be a real bad year if you made money, the more money made the possibility of it being a real real bad year LOL
 
#3 ·
Not too bad vs my target. I wasn't at my target asset allocations and I struggled to get there. With the allocations I had, I ended up with 5.0% for the year.

If I had been at my ideal permanent portfolio allocations, the year's return would have been ideally 5.5% so I only missed out on a bit. That's more or less in line with an average year for the PP. Details of my benchmark are in this post.
 
#4 ·
For me this year was only my 2nd year since I began to learn about investing. My greatest gain was knowledge-wise. 2 years ago, I sat down with a bank person AKA SALESMAN and was sold a 2.2 MER mutual fund for my daughters RESP. I didn't even know what an MER meant, so I went home and begun to research. Soon after, I sold the mutual fund and bought the Mawer balanced fund. Then after a few months I sold that and got into ETF's. After reading a lot more, I decided my appetite for risk was greater and being young and able to take bigger risk, I sold those and bought some more risky stocks. The higher the risk, the greater the potential returns. If I lose a chunk, I am young and have many years left in the workforce and to start all over. I never really got anything financial-wise from my parents, and there will be no inheritance, graduated at 26 with 80K in debt, and worked hard with my wife and by God's grace paid it all off by the time I was 30. Now being 32, I'm 120K in the plus, and really looking forward to what 2017 can bring. I don't know about you guys, but I have a feeling this year will be amazing!
 
#6 ·
Up 18.9 percent in the wife's portfolio, and 22.5 percent in mine. That is according to TDDI's performance metrics. Some of my better stock picks last year were Savaria which I got a double. And Canopy of course which was a four-bagger. My biggest dog by far was Grenville Strategic Royalty. I hung on way to long.
 
#8 ·
I don't keep detailed records but am up over 19% in then market including divies. Only TSX stocks with emphasis on Banks and utilities. Only 25% in the market and balance in interest bearing which probably yielded about 4%. The latter includes Savings, GIC's, MIC's, and a private loan.
 
#9 ·
Hi:

Been a splendid year. Was a year of harvest, after 2 years of sowing. All years are splendid really, because if you lost money any particular year, you also likely bought something lowish to set up future gains.

In 2016 I said goodbye to BCE, EMP.A, JNJ, LRE, and TRP. LRE went private in the end and managed to escape with all my fingers. The other 4 priced at the time I thought highish were mostly sold to raise funds for redeployment elsewhere where I figured I had a decent shot at buying lowish. The recent decline in the Canadian dollar also factored in the JNJ sale.

No new companies were added to the portfolio. The year end holdings comprise 17 Canadian and 1 USA company, plus the mutual funds that came with my wife in her RRSP.

ACO.X, BMO, and GE holdings were static.

TECK.B had a net reduction, though multiple additions and sales.

The following had net additions: BNS, BTE, BBD.B, CM, CWL, ECA, HSE, MFC, MX, OSB, POW. ECA had multiple sales too.

Largest 6 holdings were 54% of portfolio year end 2016 for average weighting of 9%, 45% (7.5%) year end 2015.

Debt was 23% net worth YE 2016, vs 29% YE 2015.

Year end total indicated annual dividends 2016 $60,182, 2015 $38,405.

Holdings in a loss position year end 2016, 1 at -5%; 2015, 9 ranging up to -48%. Reduced the ACB on 8 of the 9 holdings in a YE 2015 loss position.

Goals going forward:

Work the debt down in absolute dollars and as a percentage of net worth. My long term target has been 25%, but after a period of things going swimmingly, a lower number will leave me better prepared for whatever hits the fan next time. The good times don't last forever. Plus my wife will soon retire, so the ballast of an employment income will be gone (albeit replaced with a pension income).

Reduce the big six holdings: BTE, MX, OSB, ECA, TECK.B, BBD.B. I like all these companies. I like them a lot. They are all in a transitory phase to some extent, but as and if good things happens with any of them, they will be sold down. Already started on TECK.B and ECA in 2016.

As I reduce the big 6, I need to get back some balance in the rest of the portfolio, mostly in the utilities space, though I am reluctant to pay PE 18-20 for any of the usual suspects.

Grow the portfolio yield in dollars and percentage terms. I like to aim for 3%, but well under that now due to extensive work of late in the no and low paying materials space. Some additional dividends may show up from TECK.B and OSB this year, but payments from the other 4 of the big 6 will likely be static.

Get the TFSA fully funded, currently $25K of room. We don't really generate an employment surplus any more on one salary (actually 0.76 FTE now) and ever creeping up spending. So I must either take funds out of the RRSP; or contribute in kind, but the candidates both need to be free and clear of leverage for interest deductability reasons, and in a gain situation so I don't throw away a capital loss. Always been running a bit behind here, but this year I think I can close the gap.

hboy54
 
#10 ·
2016 was a very good year. Had a bump from some bargains picked up in Feb. (banks/ins. cos.) and in June (int'l indexes).
Equity portion returned 11.42%, including dividends.
Total portfolio was up 8.39%

Last year was a slightly losing year, so it certainly feels good.
 
#13 ·
RRSP -1 : +9.5% (mix of CDN dividend stocks, funds) mine
RRSP - 2: +5.0% (mostly MAWER funds - 104 and 106) hers
RRSP - 3: +4.8% (again, mostly MAWER & MD funds) - spousal
Investment Account (hers): +8.4% (Mostly CDN dividend stocks, Mutual Funds, GIC's) - currently at 55 equity :45 fixed income but looking to get to 50:50. I'm setting this one up as a source of income for retirement in 10 yrs.
TFSA - 1: +13.5% mostly BCE and VDY (banks) and cash now.
TFSA -2: +18.8% Thanks to RY, REI.UN and SU and cash now. - most increase from RY.

This was the year MAWER funds did not produce the returns of previous years - but I'm OK with that. The biggest (pleasant) surprise was the difference between accounts that held stocks vs mutual funds!

Looking to disperse some cash in the coming year. Will re-balance 1/2 through this year. I am grateful to many of you - you have provided much support and counsel (in many ways) in the coming year.
As for the new year, I will be watching the forum - but not too engaged. I have a wee medical issue forthcoming and am taking some time away from work to deal with it.
All will be well.:joyous:
 
#15 ·
XIRR = 6% for 2016.
Long-term XIRR = 8% (since 2002).

- More than half of my 2016 investment was in pound sterling and sterling fell by 18%.

- My N American Investments returned 11.5% in 2016 (XIRR).

- Also my house price went up by about 50% and the house got sold (not included in XIRR but dominates my 2016 "net worth" story).
 
#17 ·
XIRR of all accounts was 11%. I would have had a better year but the performance of Concordia Healthcare (since punted) had a significant negative affect. It was easily my most regrettable investment ever.

Best stock was Yangarra Resources (YGR.TO), which appreciated 249% but had a very small weighting.
 
#22 ·
I had a good year this last 12 months and my portfolio gained/recovered about 25%. The downside is that based on since I started just before 2012 this is the fist time I have been in the black. Including divs I am up around 7.5% total. Tracking my performance against indexes tells me I should have just bought indexes. How boring would that be ? lol
 
#25 ·
2016 XIRR was 47%, but this was after 2 negative years. My 4 year XIRR since starting saving is 10.5%. I've also been around 50% cash this whole time, so halve that. Also I hear that XIRR overestimates returns, though I don't understand the math, when large cash inflows are occurring (like when a young investor begins saving) so I'm probably overstating. My "geometric" rate of return (not sure if that's a thing) is 5.3%. I.e (Current Value/Initial Investment)^(1/n)

I'm quite sure if I'd just been 80/20 couch potato with a 6 month emergency fund, as per standard CMF recommendations, I'd be much further ahead. *sigh*
 
#27 ·
Also I hear that XIRR overestimates returns, though I don't understand the math, when large cash inflows are occurring (like when a young investor begins saving) so I'm probably overstating.
XIRR gives accurate Money Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), which is the actual investor's return including the timing of external cash flows.
Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR) filters out the effect of the timing of cash flows on rate of return.

For example in 2016, the market performed better in the second half of the year than in the first half. If you added funds only in the second half of the year, then your MWRR would be higher than your TWRR. If you did not add or withdraw any money in the year then MWRR = TWRR. TWRR is better for comparing your investment to market benchmarks or to other investors.

This CCP blog explains it in more detail: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2015/07/13/calculating-your-portfolios-rate-of-return/

My "geometric" rate of return (not sure if that's a thing) is 5.3%. I.e (Current Value/Initial Investment)^(1/n)
Geometric rate of return is used for calculating multi-year compound investment returns. Say the market dropped 50% in year 1, then went up 50% in year 2. If you started year 1 with $1000, at the end of year 2 you would have $750.

Your arithmetic return is (1 - (0.5 + 1.5) / 2) = 0, or 0% return, meaning your original $1000 would still be $1000, which is clearly not accurate for compound investments.

Your geometric return is 1 - ((0.5 x 1.5)^(1/2)) = -13.4% compound annual return. 1000 x (1-.134)^2 = $750 which is accurate.
 
#26 · (Edited)
For those of us in later years, aiming at balanced portfolio, the performance of these balanced mutual funds may be of interest.

http://globefunddb.theglobeandmail....&pi_portfolio_id=&pi_fund_arr=&pi_manager_id=


By the way, PH&N are in the list. I think Ian said earlier that the one he has is now closed to new investors. But they do have others. I use TD Monthly Income (another balanced fund) to collect interest and dividends in our registered accounts. It had performance similar to the PH&N balanced funds at 10.87%.

Someone mentioned using the numbers from their on-line brokerage, so I went and looked. Don't know how BMOIL calculate these:
Unregistered 28.5% and 26.2%; RRIFs 9.7% & 11.9% (that's where most of our FI is); TFSAs 44.9% and 25.7%. (compared with my simple minded overall final 19.6% yield) Looks good to me, but really just rebounding!
 
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