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Goldcorp (G)

177K views 505 replies 79 participants last post by  Ag Driver 
#1 ·
Was surprised there was no previous thread.

I'm thinking about buying some G tomorrow (100 shares).

Thoughts?
 
#53 ·
dogcom, I was actually looking to buy K today, but then thought the same thing as you. Too many problems, so I closed my browser before I did something stupid.

I will buy G at $45. I'm hoping for another sell off tomorrow. If it does sell off tomorrow, I will probably purchase. I am not eager beaver to buy, so it must reach my price point of $45.
 
#54 ·
Agree that Goldcorp is a good buy if it holds at $45 from a purely technical perspective. But I don't have much interest in tying up capital with common shares, and the options are prohibitively expensive. Why would I pay 5.85 for a 45 call strike next January? Maybe selling the 43 puts is a better idea.
 
#55 · (Edited)
Don't see the 43 puts, have some courage and sign the 45 puts for October and collect $395 per contract.

The stock will soon bounce and you can close for a gain of about $200 per contract for holding it a couple of weeks.

The worst that'll happen is the stock remains weak and you'll buy in at $41/share which isn't a bad price for the best senior gold mining stock in the world who is also the low cost producer and has all its mines in politically stable areas. You also get a world class silver mining company in the process and I'm probably more bullish on silver than gold but I prefer to buy silver only stocks for that exposure.

Anyhow, I mostly view gold miners as trading stocks and not long-term holds and the best way to play this as a trade is puts at around 45 where there tends to be a lot of technical resistance and then close the trade when the stock strengthens to about 48.50 or so and you'll be ready to play the trade again next month.

I did this trade last month on 7 contracts which I closed about 2 weeks later for a gain of around $900.

The one thing I might add is it is better to let the stock drop a bit more as the premiums for the 45 strike will improve as the stock continues to plummet. You don't want to wait too long and miss the chance to make the trade, though. It is always a balancing act when trading.
 
#57 ·
edmonton no offence & in general i think you are a good trader. But do you see the contradiction in what you have said about GG puts:

"... have some courage and sign the 45 puts for October and collect $395 per contract.

The stock will soon bounce and you can close for a gain of about $200 per contract for holding it a couple of weeks ...

The one thing I might add is it is better to let the stock drop a bit more as the premiums for the 45 strike will improve as the stock continues to plummet."


in my world, the way i've learned to play it, prices can only go one way or the other at the end of 2 weeks. Stk will either bounce & puts drop. Or stk will plummet & puts rise.

or one could do a 4-legged iron play :)




rise
 
#66 ·
Sorry, a bit of contradiction, I agree.

My basic idea is the stock is range bound with strong resistance around 44 USD (I am talking about GG here). It always bounces within a month of reaching this level.

I like selling puts when it is weak at 44 and close to the money. Then when the stock bounces up the puts drop in value and buy to close the position. The other way I am going to play it this time is to buy some stock (300 shares) and also sell some calls at 45 so I can take advantage of the stock bouncing up. Then I can let the call get exercised by the other party in July (or sooner).

I mostly see this trade as a way to either get into the stock cheaply if it is weak (I buy once at 44 then sell contracts for 6.50 on a put and a covered call. So if the stock stays weak I buy another tranche at 37.50 to lower my ACB to around 40.50. If the stock strengthens then the put isn't exercised and I pocket the put and get exercised on the call for a big net gain in a short period of time).

It's a new strategy I'm trying to play that is a "moneyball strategy" where I swing for singles and doubles but not homeruns. I only would do this strategy on a stock that I am happy to hold at the price it is currently selling and try to decrease my ACB in case I end up holding the stock. Alternatively I can make a fairly quick gain if the stock strengthens up so I win either way. The only way I lose is if the stock really tanks but that is why I only buy strong companies close to their 52-week lows with tested strong technical resistance around my buy level.
 
#62 ·
Ok I am in on G at $43.70 It could still be a rough ride but I think I will probably hold this one even it it drops to $39.00 in a crazy sell off. It is now officially oversold by my calculation on the short term but as we know if everyone wants out it can go to extreme oversold levels. I still however don't believe big buyers and institutions won't want to bid this but who knows.
 
#67 · (Edited)
sounds great, chapeaux, félicitations, it's a strangle.

actually i write strangles on just about every stock i ever hold, save & except for the truly wild things like africa oil & gasfrac.

sometimes i don't sell the put side, though, if i already hold too much of the stock.

edmonton my prize one is a naked short strangle in US cnq. It's my only naked strangle. Right now it's short 20 june 46 uncovered calls & 10 jan/13 25 uncovered puts. Proper risk management would dictate less calls more puts but i have a personal thing against being assigned in puts.

it sounds risky but i have been constantly selling this strangle for 3-4 years now. Just keep rolling it forward. The strike prices move up & down according to the times. It pays big enough, although, as you can see, i work em quite a bit farther from the chest than you do. Unlike your practice, my goal is to never be assigned. It makes the tax reporting easier.

you are right about stocks trading in a band. One harvests the rewards at the extremities of the bands.
 
#72 · (Edited)
The business is shrinking, they continually disappoint, and the chart has broken all support. Nothing to like about Goldcorp.

For someone who follows gold more than the average human, I must say one has to find a quality growing company or invest in the metal itself.

Gold stocks are not buy and hold for the simple reason that their resources are very much finite.
 
#76 ·
Taken out back to the woodshed today.
From what I understand Red Lake only represents 10% of G's production and it's not like they are closing the mine!!
But the market in it's wisdom is taken the S.P. down close to 7%.
Oh well...picked up a few more shares @ $37.95.
 
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