i think short US jan 15 or 16 calls might be conservative enough. Premiums are still too low, though. It's those knobby knees. Nobody will pay for them, at least not yet.
i've sold not-conservative jan 12 puts. Premiums are better.
i think short US jan 15 or 16 calls might be conservative enough. Premiums are still too low, though. It's those knobby knees. Nobody will pay for them, at least not yet.
i've sold not-conservative jan 12 puts. Premiums are better.
Premiums seem to nearly double by going out just 2 extra months (Mar. 2013)Originally Posted by humble_pie
I am looking at MX bids right now.
$15 at 0.73 for March vs. 0.48 for Jan
$16 at 0.46 for March vs. 0.27 for Jan
This is after hours of course so may not be entirely accurate.
Also, $15 is too close IMHO.
The slightest evidence of QE - III can easily send this stock up another 25%.
i meant US options. Translated into CAD the strike prices are slightly higher. But i agree that $15 in either currency is a bit too close.
curious: why would one particularly choose montreal instead of US talisman options. Although montreal is surprisingly solid open interest-wise in tlm.
In the case of a covered short call, US options are perhaps better because the stock should ideally be held on the US side.
US doesn't have the March expiry though, but on the MX side, the Mar. premiums are a nice spread over the Jan. for going out only 2 additional months.
For example, the $15 bid for Jan on MX is 46c. and in US is 70c. However, the $15 bid on MX for March is 74c.
Given the Grand Canyon wide spreads, it should be relatively easy to sell the March higher than the current 74c. bid on MX, esp. if the stk moves up further over the next day or two.
Also, the spreads on the US side, while tighter than MX, are still pretty wide.
Maybe not the Grand Canyon, but certainly Chimney Rock wide.
in tlm i bought another 500 sh & sld 5 US jan 15s this am.
a principal reason why i'm avoiding tlm march is that open interest is likely to be thin.
januaries are heavily-traded, people will be winding up their 2012 positions. But after that, not much. Also lettuce remember that by end-of-year in december, the seps will have expired & the junes will be open & trading. I kind of think people will leapfrog over the marches, although US markets will open march series soon.
open interest is always important to me; i avoid options with low open interest.
i see talisman as a way to benefit from the kurdimir well with far less risk than western zagros. The problem i have with the small kurdistan plays is that i can't yet get a grip on the politics. For example, couple weeks ago kurdish nationalists in turkey blew up the kurdistan-turkey pipeline. But why on earth would they be doing that ????? it's totally in the interests of semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region to have that pipeline enlarged. It's totally regressive to blow it up ... so i can't really piece this politics together easily.
by contrast it's relatively easy to grasp the politic of east africa because the heavy hands & footprints of washington/london are so clear. One can almost hear hilary clinton telling the world what she wants to see in that region. Oil plays a role in the story, but from the west's pov there's no confusion or contradiction.
ontario teachers' has been buying talisman.
also a hedge fund.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle4497643/
"They were buying as the stock plumbed lows not seen in three years" - in fact, prices not seen since 2004!
Wonder how investors that punished this stock in Q2 feel now.
“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
The stock is nearing USD$15; up an impressive 50% since May/2012.
Talisman CEO John Manzoni steps down; Hal Kvisle takes helm
http://business.financialpost.com/20...le-takes-helm/
“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
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