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Market Forecasts

530K views 3K replies 111 participants last post by  Nick1357 
#1 · (Edited)
Thought it might be a good idea to have a thread like this. A lot of people have posted their trade ideas and guesses about general market direction, but they've been pretty erratic and scattered.

So, what do you guys think will happen in the markets tomorrow?

I'll start... I think we'll break 1100 again on the S&P in the next few days, VIX spike to 48+. I don't think what Bernanke says will have any significant positive effects tomorrow. I'm monitoring Hurricane Irene, it looks like she's developing into a Category 3 and on a direct path to NYC going into the weekend. NYC released a flood evacuation map and Wall Street is literally going under water (Zone C): http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

In other news, Japan's PM Kan just resigned.
 
#76 ·
Chairman Bernanke said the central bank stands ready to act if needed, which means that they are considering additional Quantitative Easing. If non-farm payrolls beat expectations, it would reduce the need for more QE but if the labor market report disappoints, it could force the Federal Reserve into action.
http://www.greenfaucet.com/?q=node/18574

Interesting what will be market reaction, if report dissapoints, more chances QE3 will be implemented and .... stock will go up (and vise versa) ? :confused:

ddkay, on your diagram "non farm payroll misses by 111K" ...where is this number coming from?
 
#77 · (Edited)
@gibor the expectations figure comes from the Econoday survey http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446889&cust=mam&year=2011#top

The June 2011 NFP survey forecast 105k new jobs with an estimate range between 65k and 160k. Actual NFP (revised down) came in at 18k, so the miss was 87k. I can't remember which source I used for 111k but it must have been wrong. Thanks.

Edit: Oh here it is. In May 2011 NFP consensus was 170k, actual was 54k, resulting in a 116k miss (still a bit off from the number I used though) http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=446888&cust=mam#top
 
#79 ·
@gibor Not sure, I'm not very good at interpreting those indicators to be honest. I think the payrolls will head lower month over month but we'll get another "surprise" because economists dramatically adjusted their estimates lower to an average of 75,000. Goldman Sachs for example lowered NFP estimate to 25,000. A 25,000 print = double dip is here. It could be too soon to call that.

Fresh off the press: U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages

SP500 futes are down -0.61% since that was published 2 hours ago, nothing to sweat about yet.
 
#80 ·
@gibor Not sure, I'm not very good at interpreting those indicators to be honest. .
I'm not very good in understanding what is going on :confused:. Was watchinh BNN tonight, first appeared 2 analyst who predicted very tough September. Than appeared Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, and said:

"The market is undergoing a counter-trend rally that could recover much of what was lost over the past few months. This advance could last the entire month of September and thus run contrary to the S&P 500’s typical performance, in which it posted average declines since 1945 and recorded falling prices in 55% of all observations."

Whom to beleive :confused:
 
#82 ·
Economy added no jobs in August, a huge miss on expectations. I had to play this one because I figured with all the market turmoil last month the tail would have to wag the dog in the labour market. GLD call and SPY put, can't cash out fast enough. Like Steve Miller said.. take the money and run.
 
#84 ·
That NFP number was embarrassing. At the same time the market reaction is extremely mild (down just 2%?!). I officially got a sell signal on SP500 Full STOs, we broke the 1208 level uptrend from yesterday and should continue moving lower from here, it could take another week or two to get oversold again. Luckily the SP500 didn't hit 1240 and so the crash is postponed... Congress has to vote to lift the debt ceiling again on September 30, 2011. The day before is the EFSF expansion vote. Waiting game...
 
#85 ·
Probably not down as much because the possibility of stimulus is higher. I wish the Feds and the politicians would just let this thing play itself out. QE3 would be a bad idea, and we will start seeing some unwarranted inflation. Can't see myself playing much in the market this month, but I'll do something to protect my gains if need be.
 
#87 ·
A small, and decreasing percentage of Americans think that Obama is doing a good job with the economy. Man, would I like to speak to any of those folks to ask them how they have come to that conclusion. He is terrible!!!

I wonder how things might have been different with Hillary or even McCain in charge but alas it didn't turn out that way.:(

I fear that we may be in for at least three to five years of this!! Oh well, it's only money.:mad:
 
#88 ·
I'd like to know just what you think could have been done differently. More of the Bush era policies that got them in this mess? Do you think they should not have done the bail outs?

Obama is screwed either way - do what people want and cut Federal spending - which means cutting jobs - and get reamed for job losses. Or don't and get reamed for stagnant job growth. The growth and jobs numbers get compared to the loose money/credit expansionist last 20 years which are unsustainable, not to what the result could have been if they tightened instead.

I think you - along with most people - over-estimate what a President can do. The real answer is he can go to war, but that's about it. Otherwise he needs congress and the senate to put legislation on his desk, and that process is clearly a disaster no matter who holds the executive title.

I'm just glad I live in a country with a much better functioning political system!
 
#89 · (Edited)
A small, and decreasing percentage of Americans think that Obama is doing a good job with the economy. Man, would I like to speak to any of those folks to ask them how they have come to that conclusion. He is terrible!!!
no way in hell this can be laid at obamas feet ..

i wish he had taken some different moves, like a much bigger stimulus, but he inherited a 7 million job loss because george bush was asleep at the wheel

obama doesn't own this thing until at least the end of his term and then there is another referendum and the voters can decide whether to keep him or not
 
#90 ·
If you were an American, and an election was held tomorrow with the two choices were:confused: Romney for the Republicans and Obama for the Democrats, and your biggest concerns were jobs and the economy, how would you vote? :confused:

If you happen to be one of those who always vote for the same party, even if Lassie the Dog was the candidate, I'm not so much interested in your response but only if you consider yourself an Independent who switches allegiances depending on which candidate you consider superior.
 
#91 ·
i lived in the usa for almost 5 decades and i am a dual citizen ... jobs and the economy are only part of my concern as a voter

i would, once again, vote for obama ...

on only the economy, they have one and only one plan, it's the same plan they have had for 3 decades ... cut taxes, cut taxes ... but merely cutting taxes isn't enough

taxes were cut under george w. bush and the economy lost 7 million jobs

so, i don't see the republicans as trustworthy or any more competent to bring the economy back than obama

and then there are all the other disastrous policies of the republicans
 
#92 ·
Well, none of the Republican candidates are exactly basking in glory, Obama's job approval ratings are pretty dismal these days as well.

Just as we should have a 'none of the above' choice on the ballot in Canada, perhaps they should also have it in the Exited States.
 
#93 ·
Things will continue to get worse because the major problems are not being resolved.

The us can't get the unployment rate down and stimulus won't result in any sustainable recovery.

The us must also address its debt in a manner which will truly bring it down. I think a combination of tax increases and expenditures is needed.

Europe is a real big problem which will drag all markets down.

I hope the real drop doesn't occur till early 2012 as I will have a fairly large sum to invest.
 
#94 ·
Cannew, amen to the last part of your post. I have a 100k GIC maturing in Feb 2012 and would love for conditions to be ripe for me to invest a decent chunk of it. (It was originally slated to kill our mortgage).
 
#96 ·
GM sells a lot of Buicks in China.

GM had to build a plant in China to sell Buicks in China.

China sells a lot of products in the USA.

China builds a lot of plants in China to sell products in the USA.

China's GDP has "slowed" to 10%.

The USA is heading into negative GDP.

It doesn't take a financial expert to figure out this is a problem.
 
#97 ·
GM had to build a plant in China to sell Buicks in China.

vs.

China builds a lot of plants in China to sell products in the USA.
This right here is the issue.
Too many offshore/outsourcing business going on. The Americans don't have jobs.

But from a business perspective. Why pay more $$$ to people who don't work as well, when you could pay less $$$ to a nation with a better work ethic?
 
#98 · (Edited)
#99 · (Edited)
The US dollar is breaking out and looks like it might be at the start of a face ripper rally, could see the DXY over 90 in a few months



Canadian Dollar Index broke its uptrend in late July or May depending which time period you look at, but it's still relatively strong (compare USD and CAD November 2009 onward)


 
#103 · (Edited)
10 year treasury under 2%, gold over $1900. We would be lucky with a crash.. get it over with and pick up some bargains. A volatile, grinding bear market is worse. It's like ripping off a band-aid slow instead of quick.

I think there is a window of opportunity here. On Thursday after the jobless claims, and before Bernanke speaks might be a time to buy some calls. Obama has his jobs speech later that day, but I don't think anything he's ever said has moved the market up. Wish it was still on Wednesday.

I'm just glad I have 20% cash, half of that in USD. 30% gold too.
 
#105 · (Edited)
I'm getting just a little tired of all of this volatility since 2008!!

Are the equity markets any place for a retired senior to have his or her money?:(:mad::eek:

One reason that they keep on giving for all of the volatility is the European Debt Crisis and Angela Merkel's party just lost another local election on this issue because German taxpayers are getting tired of shipping money to other EU nations that didn't know how not to live beyond their means.

The U.S. unemployment problem and political stalemate is another problem.

Neither of these problems are going away anytime soon and may take years to resolve.

How then, are the equity markets going to reverse trends with both of these headwinds as well as others?

It's a difficult time to be an optimist unless you are young and have a long time horizon.

For we older geezers, we may just be faced with a lower standard of living in our golden years filled with so much market volatility.

Can anyone give me any reason for optimism?
 
#110 ·
For we older geezers, we may just be faced with a lower standard of living in our golden years filled with so much market volatility.

Can anyone give me any reason for optimism?
Yeah, lots of volatility! Even for a buy-and-hope guy, the volatility is a good thing for you provided you are re balancing and reinvesting dividends. Given that you are doing "buy hold and prosper" it shouldn't matter how volatile it is right?
 
#108 ·
There's always ways to make money in capital markets. If one is averse to making movements, the best buy and hold strategy is with a diversified basket of equal weight low beta dividend stocks. If one asks, "is there an ETF for that?", then the point has been lost.
 
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