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Cameco (CCO)

68K views 203 replies 47 participants last post by  james4beach 
#1 ·
The slaughter just seems to continue with uranium producers. Cameco is now at 19 and sporting a pedestrian PE of 17 with a dividend yield around 2%. It is almost looking like a value play now despite an earlier run at 45.

It is now actually close to its 2009 low.

I know some are really down on Uranium but Japan has only talked about moving away from Uranium - I don't know if they'll be able to do it. Germany has long-range plans about not pursuing more nuclear power plants but again it remains to be seen what they'll do. Meanwhile we know that India and China are continuing to build more plants. We also know that current uranium production is insufficient for existing uranium use with the gap filled from decommissioned nuclear arms warheads. However, those warheads are now also running out.

I think this is a good opportunity for a long-term contrarian bet but I would wait for a more solid bottom to form as these guys just continue to sink. Cameco is the strongest player in the field and they have the hedging programs in place to ride out any weakness in uranium spot prices. They also seem to be intent on trying to expand with the hostile takeover of Hathor. I also wonder if they make a play on Denison Mines with their stocks down about 75% from their yearly high and trading at 1.19 now.

I guess I'm ready to jump in once the knife stops falling. Are any of you guys about ready to wade in?
 
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#132 ·
After doing some analysis, I don't think the result is that bad.
There is a one time impairment charge related to Kintyre exploration project in Australia.
They got the property in 2008, and they can sell it at 168 million loss.
I wonder how much they actually paid for it. If the uranium price stays this low, more impairment charges will be recognized in later quarters from this project and others.

Aside from that, Q4 wasn't that bad. But the statements given in the statements are very discouraging.
Expect bad results in Q1 of 2013 they said.
 
#134 ·
I agree - if you want to play the uranium renaissance you need some patience. You have to wait for the end of the nuclear arms treaty to end and for all the new nuclear reactors to start to come online. Then you're going to see a massive shortage. Meanwhile Cameco will have brought their second major mine online and will also be benefitting from a huge spike in Uranium prices.

I actually don't mind the low prices for now. I hope it allows them to scoop up some more good properties at low prices from Juniors who can't stay afloat in the current challenging financing environment.
 
#136 ·
selloff on volume.
hard to say where exactly the low will be but a retest of 19 bux will happen.
main reason is a mkt retracement.
long term i would not be so worried.
buy on dips.
cheers

p.s

i want to share with all of ya also that there are some rumors of scaling down certain old nukes in the states and replacing them with NG fired generators.
now do not start panicking and believing that that is it for nuke power.
this is solely an American phenomenon and it will not happen from day to night.

as u can see Ng is an interesting catalyst in the American mkt is it not?:encouragement:
 
#142 ·
I was early on Cameco but just getting into the black with the upgrade, which is decent.

A bit of a dividend and some $40ish targets out there.

We were actually on Maui the night of the Japanese sunami, wasn't major for us but uncomfortable as were evacuated to higher ground for the night and at our beach area the water rose about 8feet (I think), it arrived 5 AM. Talk about something outta left field!
 
#144 ·
I was early on Cameco but just getting into the black with the upgrade, which is decent.
Me as well

A bit of a dividend and some $40ish targets out there.

We were actually on Maui the night of the Japanese sunami, wasn't major for us but uncomfortable as were evacuated to higher ground for the night and at our beach area the water rose about 8feet (I think), it arrived 5 AM. Talk about something outta left field!
That is truly bizarre. My former boss was also in Maui at the time. I remember emailing him about it. They had to evacuate their rented condo and head to the roof at about 3 am till it passed. The pictures were amazing!
 
#143 ·
It's obvious (to me) that nuclear power is the future. I can't take Germany's energy policy seriously. Apparently they prefer coal fired power plants over nuclear. Coal is supposed to be green? Good grief. Then Germany buys power from France when they need it, and France is over 90% nuclear. I can't take the Global warming alarmists seriously when they prefer coal fired plants over nuclear. Anyway, due to serious pollution from coal fired plants, and the yield from wind and solar is meager, it is obvious that nuclear is going to be the primary option.

Buy low, sell high.
 
#145 ·
CCO up 12.3% in the last 2 days after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated he would like to restart all 48 of the countries idle nuclear reactors and he expects nuclear energy to play a large role in Japan going forward. Yellowcake spot prices remain around $35/pound, however that figure should rise once Japan restarts their reactors.
 
#147 ·
I'm not allowed to own individual stocks right now but I got my CCO & uranium exposure through the URA ETF (CCO is 25% of it). Also a very happy camper.

Megatons to Megawatts done: check
Japan coming back on: check
China & india doing a rapid buildout: check
low uranium prices pushing small suppliers to cancel projects, restricting supply: check
 
#153 ·
CCO has dropped for its $27 highs in March to $20 with the latest 4.5% drop yesterday after news of a tax avoidance squabble with the CRA:

To review: In 1999, Cameco set up a subsidiary, Cameco Europe Ltd., in low-tax Zug, Switzerland. Cameco then signed a 17-year deal to take the uranium it produces in Canada and sell it to Cameco Europe before it made its way to the end customer.

By injecting a middleman into the transaction, Cameco is able to sell the uranium to Cameco Europe at the low prices reflective of 1999. As a result, Cameco is recording little to no profit in Canada. Instead, all the profits appear in Zug, where the tax rate is lower.

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...uabble-that-keeps-on-growing/article18989010/
A recent RBC report on the supply and demand of uranium forcasts that the market will remain oversupplied until 2021.

We have completed a detailed review of our supply/demand model. The global uranium market continues in a state of significant oversupply. Active annual supply exceeds demand by a significant margin, and on top of that, significant excess inventories have been and continue to be accumulated post the Fukushima disaster, particularly in Japan. We now expect the market to remain oversupplied until 2021, and for prices to be constrained over the next three to four years as a result. [...]

Source: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cco/cameco-corp?threadid=22632447
Things are looking down right now for CCO. I own some CCO I am going to be watching it more closely.
 
#163 ·
SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN--(Marketwired - Aug. 27, 2014) -

ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)

Cameco (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ) announced today that, in response to receiving strike notice from the United Steelworkers Local 8914, the company initiated a shutdown of its McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill operations and will cease production at those sites.

The union has advised Cameco of its intention to commence strike action, effective 12:01 a.m. on August 30, 2014. In response to the strike notice, Cameco issued a lockout notice effective 12:01 a.m. on August 30, 2014 to assure a safe and orderly shutdown of its facilities. Cameco is continuing to meet with the union during the 72-hour notice period.

The work stoppage involves approximately 535 unionized employees at the two operations. Contract negotiations began in November 2013. The previous four-year contract expired December 31, 2013. In July, the company and union jointly applied for conciliation under the Canada Labour Code.

A labour disruption is not expected to affect the company's 2014 uranium delivery commitments to customers. Cameco may draw on a variety of supply sources including primary production, and existing purchase commitments and inventories.
 
#166 · (Edited)
Yellowcake prices are up 3.2% to $32.50 today. Despite the impending shutdown at McArthur River, Cameco will be able to meet all customer commitments through other sources including drawing down their inventory.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-uranium-price-in-2-12-years/article20234894/

Thanks United Steelworkers for increasing the value of Cameco's inventory while not jeopardizing their ability to supply customers!
 
#170 ·
https://www.equities.com/news/cameco-corporation-cco-ca-rises-10-21-for-january-10

Hindsight being 20-20 a coworker and I discussed buying more in December. Would have been a great return short term. Long run would have put me overweight in both sector and company.

Still good news for those that hold. Still under water since I purchased post fukishima. Long term hold for me. May trim if it ever gets back into the 20s. Cheers
 
#171 ·
Likewise, i had my average cost at around $20ish built in the past years, after it fell close to $16 this past summer, I averaged down ,,, and whoops ... wrong move as it dropped even more.
I waited some month until was able to grab some at $11.4. Have been happy to see my investment rebound to a only 8% loss ( :) ).

Though not entirely sure what is moving at this point.
Looks like uranium has been the last participent to enter the commodity rally. Or perhaps the talks about defence and nuclear built up. Thing is all i hear on news is US nuclear power plant wanting to close down.

let's see... haven't bought anymore since $11.4 nor planning to sell underwater
Average cost is around $17, at least it pays some dividends
 
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