Canadian Oil Sands (COS)

[bigpun87]

Any thoughts on this stock? Been hit pretty hard lately, 52 week low, 5% dividend. Thinking about taking a position soon.

[Betzy]

Only thing stopping me is that if Recession goes this and all oil will take further hits.
Right now I am waiting...
I owned it in Dec 2010, sold for 28.10.

[dubmac]

I own some COS - it truly is getting beat up. I may buy more at the end of Sept (when more reporting is due) - also, closely watching SU

[peterk]

If you're looking for yield, go for it. But I'd prefer suncor or cnrl over COS. Perhaps I'm biased because I work at Syncrude. I don't like the joint venture structure, and I believe they're having trouble reigning in costs compared to other producers. One way they are cutting costs is an employee reduction program through attrition and limiting new hires.

[bigpun87]

anyone know why they dropped 3-4% today?

[Dmoney]

Reviving another old thread. People's thoughts? Yield looks tasty at 6%+.
Where does oil price need to be for this to turn around some?

[Sherlock]

Looks like a bargain but I already have enough of my money in oil and gas.

[arc]

looks like they're hitting a new 52 week low: buying time?

[Dopplegangerr]

I have a decent size position in them from months ago at around the $21.50 mark. I will just collect my giant dividend until it pops back up high

[Spidey]

Recent drop is probably due to the stock going ex-dividend last Wednesday. I think these type of stocks are far too beaten up and trading at similar prices to the 2008 financial crisis when oil was half the price it is now. I won't be "backing up the truck" but I'll probably continue to add to my position if the price goes lower. Fundamentals look much better than with many other energy stocks.

[Ethan]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/528561-canadian-oil-sands-is-undervalued

I picked up 100 shares earlier this week to bring my position to 200 shares. As my article suggests, this stock is way undervalued.

[Kaitlyn]

The dividend yield on this stock right now is very enticing!

Dividens have also increased siginificantly - looks like from $0.05 to $0.30 and very recently up to $0.35...!

[Ethan]

The dividend yield on this stock right now is very enticing!

Dividens have also increased siginificantly - looks like from $0.05 to $0.30 and very recently up to $0.35...!

Despite the dividend increase the payout ratio is only 60%.

[PMREdmonton]

The 6.8% divy is very enticing.

Does anyone know whether they are one of the operations that does their own refining and thus is not penalized by the Cushing discount? I think Suncor has this advantage but IMO doesn't if I recall correctly.

CNQ is also looking very cheap these days but they are penalized more by the low price on natural gas than the others here. They are growing the divy at a fairly high rate but it is still very low on an absolute basis and it looks like they have room to grow it.

Athabasca oil is also very cheap considering the assets they have to develop over time.

I think the true scarcity of oil is being underestimated these days because Iran is still producing and Saudi Arabia is in overdrive. Many of the newer sources that are being found are very expensive to develop and really need a floor price of $80-90/barrel to be considered economic. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some cutback upcoming in the development of the oil shales given the faster rate of depletion than is currently appreciated.

I do feel the Canadian oil operators are going to be selling artificially cheap so long as we lack the ability to get the oil to a refinery with access to the sea for export.

The government needs to step up and dictate rules to all the parties that are in the way (re: Native Indians on the West Coast). This resource is needed so we can fund their welfare programs and it is for the good of all Canadians including them. A fair settlement will be dictated for rent of the landspace for the pipelines and the companies will be responsible for paying any environmental damages that are incurred.

[Kaitlyn]

Despite the dividend increase the payout ratio is only 60%.

Sorry... kind of new to things. What do you mean the payout ratio? Payout is 60% of the earnings? Why does that even matter? You saying it should be even higher...?

[humble_pie]

... The government needs to step up and dictate rules to all the parties that are in the way (re: Native Indians on the West Coast). This resource is needed so we can fund their welfare programs and it is for the good of all Canadians including them. A fair settlement will be dictated for rent of the landspace for the pipelines and the companies will be responsible for paying any environmental damages that are incurred.


oh, my. This point of view prevailed from 1542 to the 1970s, but i didn't think anyone today would offer it in serious mode.

no one today would label first nations "in the way," when they are, in fact, living upon their own hereditary lands.

no government or oilco today would "dictate" a "fair settlement ... for rent of the landscape."

fortunately, enbridge itself is lightyears ahead of this dated view. The pipeline-to-kitimat consortium is offering partnerships to first nations who join them.

http://www.northerngateway.ca/aboriginal-engagement/benefits-for-aboriginals/

" Northern Gateway is offering Aboriginal people a 10% share in a $5.5 billion project. The long-term financial benefits for participating Aboriginal shareholders will be significant. Aggregate equity ownership is expected to generate approximately $280 million in net income to neighbouring Aboriginal communities, over the first 30 years.

" Becoming an owner in this project means Aboriginal groups are going to see cash flow within the first year of operations. Through equity ownership, Aboriginal people will be able to generate a significant new revenue stream that could help achieve the priorities of their people – such as improved health care, education and housing."

however, the campaign to recruit first nations as enbridge partners is not going well. First nations have become polarized. Some oppose the use of their land for cultural & spiritual reasons. Others holding out may be looking for bigger royalties & a higher level of skilled hiring along with training for the same, plus the holdouts probably want bigger remediation bonds.

[Jungle]

Yup, pe in the 8's, it's on a limit order right now. Already own in the 19's, don't have a problem doubling or tripling position at these prices.
With Greece leaving the Euro, this is possible.

[Ethan]

Sorry... kind of new to things. What do you mean the payout ratio? Payout is 60% of the earnings? Why does that even matter? You saying it should be even higher...?

Payout ratio is dividends/net income. A payout ratio of 60% is healthy, the dividend is not so large that it is restricting the cash flows of the corporation. A payout ratio over 100% is scary because the company is paying out more than they are earning, the only way to finance future growth and operations is either by taking on debt or issuing equity, neither of which are good.

[Ethan]

Does anyone know whether they are one of the operations that does their own refining and thus is not penalized by the Cushing discount?.

Syncrude upgrading facilities convert raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil (SCO). SCO is comparable to light sweet oil that is immune from the heavy oil discount. North American light sweet oil is typically measured at West Texas Intermediate (WTI) pricing, during 2011 SCO averaged a sales price $7.32 greater than WTI due to selling in certain US markets that price oil on other measures (such as Brent and Louisiana Light Sweet).

[Jungle]

Hopefully this goes under $20 tomorrow, I will start buying again.

[KaeJS]

I'm thinking about buying this one tomorrow.

[arc]

a payout ratio of 60% is....not good. Typically below 40% is good because sufficient profits are being reinvested into the company.

What do you think of COS vs. SU? Are there other companies that are a better pay for oil sands?

[bettyboop]

I will probably pick up some tomorrow also. I've been waiting for less than $20. a share and it's close enough for me.

[londoncalling]

a payout ratio of 60% is....not good. Typically below 40% is good because sufficient profits are being reinvested into the company.



Depends on the size and opportunity for growth of the company. I would rather see a payout ratio of 60 than a payout of 40 and the company making acquisitions in an area they know nothing about. Some companies should use cash flow for payout and others should use earnings for payout. I am even fine with certain companies paying out 90% provided it is growing earnings . You have to compare the payout ratio to the rest of the industry. You also have to compare other variables. It's not just here's a line in the sand. why 40%? why not 42%? But yes the lower the payout the better to a point.

[Spidey]

60% seems quite good when compared to COS's peers. Many energy companies are currently paying well over 100%.

[londoncalling]

my point exactly

[Jungle]

Never hit my limit today :(

Read cos's disclaimer on their dividend policy, they make it sound like it can be cut based on cash flow needs, oil market price and/or growth.

[PMREdmonton]

It makes sense as they aren't as steady a business as PG or KO. In principle as they expand and produce more oil and oil prices continue on their upward trajectory it makes sense that they should have more FCF over time to pay out their dividend. I don't think anyone can reliably count on them to pay an ever increasing dividend yield like clockwork but I think a tranche bought now at this price should set you up for a good dividend play with potential for capital appreciation once the discount on resource stocks settles down.

[arc]

With europe and slowing growth in China, would it be possible for the price of oil to drop so low that it becomes no longer profitable for oil sands?

What's your expectation for when COS will turn around?

[bettyboop]

pulled the trigger at 19.22

[Dopplegangerr]

I have a limit order at 19.00, I am hoping it will hit that before the end of the day. Already have 300 shares but going to average down

[al42]

I'd be careful here, looks like the oil patch is starting to get worried.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Crescent+Point+keeping+wary+price/6708508/story.html#ixzz1wVUJKNX8

[Axcell]

This is a falling knife. I'd wait for some indication of an upward trend before opening a position. It could easily fall below $19 next week.

[blin10]

This is a falling knife. I'd wait for some indication of an upward trend before opening a position. It could easily fall below $19 next week.

love these comments, what is the indication of upward trend? you mean when it goes back to 22$ that's an indication? or if markets rally tomorrow 200 points that's an indication? please share with us your expertise

[Abha]

what is the indication of upward trend? please share with us your expertise

I don't know if he is speaking from a technical perspective, but if he is I can answer his question. The real issue is that you need to approach this or any stock with a timeframe in mind. If it's a short swing/daytrade then traders look for uptrends or a reversal candle to show that the downside has been stemmed. Longer term investors generally value the investments based on fundamentals so you want to get in cheaply or at a fair value. Neither he or you are wrong in what you've said, but it's just a disagreement based simply on timeframe.

[Financial Cents]

I'm with Spidey. Good call.

[KaeJS]

Glad I didn't buy into this yet, however, it is still on my radar.

I might be in for 100 shares soon. I said I was going to buy the other day, but I changed my mind at 9:30am.

[blin10]

I don't know if he is speaking from a technical perspective, but if he is I can answer his question. The real issue is that you need to approach this or any stock with a timeframe in mind. If it's a short swing/daytrade then traders look for uptrends or a reversal candle to show that the downside has been stemmed. Longer term investors generally value the investments based on fundamentals so you want to get in cheaply or at a fair value. Neither he or you are wrong in what you've said, but it's just a disagreement based simply on timeframe.

I fully know all technicals and rely on them as well, but even technicals can get you in more trouble then if you didn't know them... bottom line is if technicals were even 60-80% right then everyone would make money and that's not the case... sometimes technicals tell you downtrend is starting by cracking through major 200ma, braking down major support levels so you load up on shorts and the next day we get a market pop... usually indication of upward trend means you already too late, and when people say that to sound like they know what they talking about I just laugh

ps.. all those candle patters are complete BS.. just follow support lines, MA's and volume

[Abha]

ps.. all those candle patters are complete BS.. just follow support lines, MA's and volume

I disagree with this. Again the issue is timeframe. There are many traders (even on here) who can use candles and technical indicators to scalp trade and make decent money. But that's just my opinion =)

[blin10]

I disagree with this. Again the issue is timeframe. There are many traders (even on here) who can use candles and technical indicators to scalp trade and make decent money. But that's just my opinion =)

what I meant is patterns like dark cloud, shooting star, etc is BS, but patters like W for win, head and shoulders, bull flag, etc, etc are legit...

[HaroldCrump]

patterns like dark cloud, shooting star....W for win, head and shoulders, bull flag, etcWait, is this the astrology thread? ;o)

[gibor]

Why COS dividends extremely unstable?! In last 5 years they range from 1.25 to 0.15... imho it just increases stock volatility....

[Toronto.gal]

Wait, is this the astrology thread? ;o)

LOL.

Here is a term closer to earth: 'Market Correction: the day after you buy stocks'. :livid:

[Axcell]

love these comments, what is the indication of upward trend? you mean when it goes back to 22$ that's an indication? or if markets rally tomorrow 200 points that's an indication? please share with us your expertise

Hope you enjoy your losses this week by trying to play hero and catch this falling knife...
I'll wait till I see a sign that things are getting better before jumping ship.

[blin10]

thanks for your good wishes, i'm still in gain from catching falling knife back in October and selling it later on and a divi... wish you well as well lol


Hope you enjoy your losses this week by trying to play hero and catch this falling knife...
I'll wait till I see a sign that things are getting better before jumping ship.

[Toronto.gal]

If one has the time horizon, catching certain falling knives of deeply discounted companies that are not broken [and there are many at the moment], is not necessarily a bad strategy, especially since most of us would not be able to pick them up all at once [whenever the upward trend would start].

[Spidey]

Hope you enjoy your losses this week by trying to play hero and catch this falling knife...
I'll wait till I see a sign that things are getting better before jumping ship.

I agree with Toronto.gal's comments. In my experience, timing the bottom or being ensured that all potential drops are over because "things are getting better" is next to impossible. All an investor can really do is look at the fundamentals and try to invest at an attractive valuation. In the short-term I agree that one can get their "hands cut" (mine are bleeding a little), but as long as one doesn't panic, over the long-term it will usually work out well.

[blin10]

naw you're wrong, you should follow Axcell strategy, wait with your 200k when everything falls and pick up companies at exact all time low and ride the wave up, that dude is a genius... :biggrin:


I agree with Toronto.gal's comments. In my experience, timing the bottom or being ensured that all potential drops are over because "things are getting better" is next to impossible. All an investor can really do is look at the fundamentals and try to invest at an attractive valuation. In the short-term I agree that one can get their "hands cut" (mine are bleeding a little), but as long as one doesn't panic, over the long-term it will usually work out well.

[Axcell]

naw you're wrong, you should follow Axcell strategy, wait with your 200k when everything falls and pick up companies at exact all time low and ride the wave up, that dude is a genius... :biggrin:

That's not what I'm saying.. I said to wait until there is a visible uptrend. I'm not saying I can time the bottom... but right now it looks like this thing is on a free-fall. I'll wait until it stabilizes before picking up shares.
Anyway, we'll see how well you guys do. :encouragement:

[Jungle]

Not everyone is going to have the same buying strategy. I like to buy when beaten down or catch the falling knife with a 3 purchase stage. I have no problems with this and it's worked out in fine in the past. At some point in 30 years, companies will increase profit and value will go up.

If it's just market noise being scared, take advantage and buy at a discount.

[Toronto.gal]

take advantage and buy at a discount.

You forgot the word 'deep'. :)

[blin10]

can you tell me, what is a visible uptrend to you? when euro will be sorted out ?


That's not what I'm saying.. I said to wait until there is a visible uptrend. I'm not saying I can time the bottom... but right now it looks like this thing is on a free-fall. I'll wait until it stabilizes before picking up shares.
Anyway, we'll see how well you guys do. :encouragement:

[gibor]

can you tell me, what is a visible uptrend to you? when euro will be sorted out ?

This one I also don't understand. :( Usually when I wait to "visible uptrend" and buy - it's too late....
Let me ask you ...if COS tomorrow jumping 2-3% -> is it a "visible uptrend"?! or it should go up more than 2 or 3 days?

[Jungle]

Maybe we should ask in the astrology thread. I saw on the news that Venus is flying in front of the Sun, and it looks like a full moon is coming too. :) There could be hidden signals in the stars, telling us when to buy stocks. They are sent out by aliens in a world we can't comprehend. I was there, I promise.

[PMREdmonton]

There is a mistake that most investors are making in terms of how they think about this stock. They are letting the politics and the economy interfere too much in their valuation of this company.

It is solidly profitable with oil around $80 but is certainly more profitable at higher oil prices. Oil prices will be rising in the future but there is a floor to how much they can drop from decreased use in the Western Nations because that pool has been decreasing since 2007. All the new growth has been coming from the industrialization and upward movement of the emerging markets that has caused demand to increase permanently without any increase in new global supplies. One could actually argue that overall supply of oil has been decreasing due to the high cost of production of the new uncoventional oil (deep seawater, shale and oil sands).

So I know in the future that COS will be very profitable and has lots of oil they have yet to extract and they don't have to waste money doing a bunch of exploration to replace reserves that other companies have to do. They spend their money on R&D for extraction of oil sands instead. But the point I'm making is the supply is there and known. As oil becomes harder and harder to find the floor of oil prices is going to fly up higher and higher which is going to lead to higher and higher profits for a company that is highly sensitive to oil prices.

I don't think anyone can go wrong buying here and the dividend is really nice.

I'm not sure this is the bottom but I would suggest people try to average in a bit starting now and buy about 1/3rd of what you want to make sure you lock up some at very low prices. This way you still have some funds to buy more at better prices if they fall some more.

Personally, I like PBN better in the Canadian oil dividend space and it is also a screaming buy at $11 right now with a 8% dividend yield and a single digit P/E and P/B << 1. They also have lots of wells to dig due to their abundance of land leases so there is little exploration risk for them in the future.

In a couple of months people will be kicking themselves for worrying about Europe and Greece and not buying highly profitable dividend paying Cdn oil companies at a large discount.

[GOB]

For anyone underexposed in energy this is a good time to increase it with stocks such as COS and PBN. Gives a nice boost to portfolio yield too. Of course we may not be at the bottom but that's why you keep cash on hand and enter in tranches.

[Jon_Snow]

For anyone underexposed in energy this is a good time to increase it with stocks such as COS and PBN. Gives a nice boost to portfolio yield too. Of course we may not be at the bottom but that's why you keep cash on hand and enter in tranches.

This is my current strategy in a nutshell. I have been buying COS on the way down. Will look into PBN now. My cash stash is shrinking steadily with all of this buying. :p

[londoncalling]

most of the energy stocks are looking very attractive right now. PBN, COS, LNV not to mention uranium stocks.... oh the choices... I hope these bargains will last till the end of the month.

[PMREdmonton]

Uranium is also looking good.

If you want safety, buy CCO (Cameco) as they have lots of long-term contracts in place at good prices no matter what happens in the short-term in the world uranium markets. So CCO won't get hurt much by low Uranium prices but they also won't be very levered to an increase in Uranium prices when the price skyrockets due to under-investment in uranium mines because of the low price from salvage of Russian nuclear warheads. That supply is going to run out next year according to my understanding.

In the meantime there is still no viable replacement for nuclear power in the developed world. The natural gas potential is overstated due to rapid depletion of drilled wells in the new shale plays. Alternative energy still isn't there without subsidization for solar and wind. So that leaves nuclear to fill the void but current uranium production isn't even close to meeting current world demand and that doesn't account for all the Chinese and Indian nuclear power plants that are being built or are currently planned.

So if you are a real Uranium bull you are better off with something like UEC which is a smaller mining company out of the USA that does in situ recovery of uranium mostly in Texas. They are a very young firm but are in production and ramping up supply. They should be going at a good clip when the supply crunch hits and the beauty of this one is it has been badly beaten up from Fukushima and from this most recent stock market dip and are selling at quite a bargain right now when many people thought it wasn't going to see 3.50 again anytime soon. The other really good thing about this one for a bull is they sell all their uranium in the spot market so they will skyrocket if the uranium crunch plays out as expected with them feeding in the needed supply in a very inelastic market.

[al42]

Almost everything on sale these days and will probably get cheaper. Just wish I had raised some cash earlier to buy now
when things are really on sale.

[marina628]

I don't own this stock at all and not sure why it is not attractive to me .Maybe my crystal ball is broken?lol

[blin10]

hey axcell, so is visible uptrend today? just curious

[PMREdmonton]

Almost everything on sale these days and will probably get cheaper. Just wish I had raised some cash earlier to buy now
when things are really on sale.

That's what margin is for :biggrin:

[arc]

NEWS!:
11:33 AM Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF.PK), largest owner of the Syncrude Canada JV, says syncrude production dropped 41% in May because of work on the 8-3 coker unit at its upgrader in Alberta.

Will COS possibly drop further on this bad news? below $18?

[blin10]

if anything it should go up, once they fix it production will be back to normal


NEWS!:
11:33 AM Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF.PK), largest owner of the Syncrude Canada JV, says syncrude production dropped 41% in May because of work on the 8-3 coker unit at its upgrader in Alberta.

Will COS possibly drop further on this bad news? below $18?

[al42]

That's what margin is for :biggrin:

No Thanks...I already have trouble sleeping at night with my money in the market never mind borrowed money!

[Toronto.gal]

I sleep very well at night! :biggrin:

No matter how tempting it might be sometimes, I have never borrowed money to invest.

al: great minds think alike. :wink:

[al42]

Thanks TGal, and I have never been tempted. I know to many people that have been severely burnt using this strategy and they will be paying
for this for many years to come.

[KaeJS]

No matter how tempting it might be sometimes, I have never borrowed money to invest.

Me either!

Borrow money to invest? What's that? :biggrin::rolleyes2::tongue:

[londoncalling]

for your sake you better hope this is nearing the bottom. for me I hope it is flat till I can deploy more cash margin free. I'll guess hind sight will tell us which is the right choice.... to leverage or not to leverage? that is a question...:biggrin-new:

[KaeJS]

I alleviated $6k of margin today.

If things go as planned tomorrow (if), I will sell off another $29,000 worth of stock, which would actually give me about a $1000 cash balance, zer0 margin.

But, since I have been investing, I have always been on margin. Always. There was only about a week where I wasn't. LOL!

Imagine how big my returns would be if I weren't paying hundreds and hundreds in interest? :tongue:

[Spidey]

There were a couple of recent insider public market buys on this one at $18.80.

[Young&Ambitious]

I stumbled across this article recently which discusses two Yale professors who have proven borrowing to trade (when you're young) will get you ahead (historically speaking).

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/lifecycle-investing-%E2%80%93-the-benefits-of-diversifying-across-time.htm

[KaeJS]

Leverage seems to be working for me so far. I am up 8.5% YTD. TSX down 3% YTD. Stressful, though.

Interesting article. Problem is that the article is made with assumptions. Assumptions are bad.

Ironically enough, I sold everything this morning that I had on margin. I am no longer borrowing. lol.

[Young&Ambitious]

Curious, what made you change you change your strategy? I am buying right now, lots of 52 week lows and good yields to cover margin interest :)

[Abha]

I am buying right now, lots of 52 week lows and good yields to cover margin interest :)

What are you buying?

[KaeJS]

Curious, what made you change you change your strategy? I am buying right now, lots of 52 week lows and good yields to cover margin interest :)

Common sense.

I know I can beat the market consistently. I also know that I would be happy with earning 10% each year.

As I am up ~8% YTD right now, I rather not take the risk. If everything plays out, dividends will place me at ~10% for the year by 2013, At which time I will start the process over again. I am young, so it's best if I waste less time fooling around and more time producing results. If I can produce consistent results starting now, I will be well off in the future.

Margin has too much risk.

My strategy hasn't changed much, though. I'm just taking a "breather".

[Young&Ambitious]

Abha I've purchased COS.TO and LNV.TO at 8% yields. I've also done some short term trades with junior mining companies, so many of those are at their 52 week lows.

KaeJS kudos to you :)

[Dopplegangerr]

I bought another 200 shares today averaging down to $20.59, this is now my most heavily owned stock. I believe we are at a bottom here and it could take off any day

[Jon_Snow]

I bought another 200 shares today averaging down to $20.59, this is now my most heavily owned stock. I believe we are at a bottom here and it could take off any day

I hope you are right... and more importantly, my 1000 shares of COS hope you are right. :)

But to be honest, I would rather Suncor take off (got 3000 of those!).

[AltaRed]

A rather heavy bet in oil sands stocks. Granted the pressure on differentials should dissipate some as soon as the Cushing bottleneck is solved.

[Dopplegangerr]

Wow you ether have a MASSIVE portfolio or you just love energy stocks. Ether way I think those are both excellent companies.

[Jon_Snow]

The way I see it, if you are going to go BIG on a stock, why not Suncor at $27, COS at $19... Also got 1000 PBN at around $11. When these holdings get back close to their 52 week highs, however long that might take, I will have made a tidy sum. Dividends as well!

[Kaitlyn]

When these holdings get back close to their 52 week highs, however long that might take, I will have made a tidy sum. Dividends as well!

IF, not WHEN

:)

[Jon_Snow]

IF, not WHEN

:)

Belguy's female counterpart?

[blin10]

she is right, there's a good chance there will be another recession and this one might be much longer since all bail out resources are wasted already therefore energy might stay low... all it takes greece leaving euro and more problems for spain/italy and tsx will be at 8000... I know how fast this can go down, I watched 08/09 markets sink every day (that was most valuable lesson to me)


Belguy's female counterpart?

[Uranium101]

she is right, there's a good chance there will be another recession and this one might be much longer since all bail out resources are wasted already therefore energy might stay low... all it takes greece leaving euro and more problems for spain/italy and tsx will be at 8000... I know how fast this can go down, I watched 08/09 markets sink every day (that was most valuable lesson to me)

What are you going to do about another recession?

Even if Greece leave Euro, it won't be as severe as 2008-2009.
Back then, it was a surprise, but this time people have been talking about it almost everyday.
I don't remember people talking about Lehman Brothers collapsing back then.

It might not be a bad thing if Greece leave Euro.
Issues will get ironed out,it just takes time.

[blin10]

a lot of major banks will loose a lot of billions if greece sinks, all euro countries invested a ton of bail out money that they will loose... imf will not have same firepower anymore to contain it and everyone will be worried about spain/italy next, that's a lot worse then 2008 when it was unexpected but world had all the money to pump into the system...


What are you going to do about another recession?

Even if Greece leave Euro, it won't be as severe as 2008-2009.
Back then, it was a surprise, but this time people have been talking about it almost everyday.
I don't remember people talking about Lehman Brothers collapsing back then.

It might not be a bad thing if Greece leave Euro.
Issues will get ironed out,it just takes time.

[Uranium101]

a lot of major banks will loose a lot of billions if greece sinks, all euro countries invested a ton of bail out money that they will loose... imf will not have same firepower anymore to contain it and everyone will be worried about spain/italy next, that's a lot worse then 2008 when it was unexpected but world had all the money to pump into the system...

I believe all banks have written off most of their Greek debts, was it 80%+?
Greece was shut off from the capital market long ago. Their sole method of financing was all those bailout funds.

The world still have money pumping into them, just run the printing presses lol.
You heard what the central banks said? We will run the printing presses over time should situation gets worse.
You just sits back and relax and enjoy the inflation.
The PIIGS going bankrupt has already been priced in, at least most of them.

[Dopplegangerr]

I bought last week at 19.08 guess I was to early again. Todays low of 18.68. We are amazingly close to 52 week low

[Axcell]

hey axcell, so is visible uptrend today? just curious

I guess now you know your answer...... glad I haven't picked up shares yet. But if tomorrow's price action is good I might be more tempted. But I'd still wait for more of a visible uptrend to add to my position.

[Young&Ambitious]

I bought last week at 19.08 guess I was to early again. Todays low of 18.68. We are amazingly close to 52 week low

I hear ya, I bought LNV.TO at 7.10 and then it went down to 7.00 (past earlier 52 week low of 7.14). My COS.TO average purchase price is around 19.30. I've decided to hold off until resistance is hit for a day and thinks start to turn around. Timing the bottom is just tough! But long term we can hope that those prices we will have been happy to have purchased at :)

[Kaitlyn]

I hear ya, I bought LNV.TO at 7.10 and then it went down to 7.00 (past earlier 52 week low of 7.14). My COS.TO average purchase price is around 19.30. I've decided to hold off until resistance is hit for a day and thinks start to turn around. Timing the bottom is just tough! But long term we can hope that those prices we will have been happy to have purchased at :)
I'm sure hoping this ship turns around. Picked up some more today. If I can get a great dividend return AND cap gain out of this... well, win/win :)

[doctrine]

LNV looks like really great value. May take a while to pay off though.

[londoncalling]

Timing the bottom is just tough!

I would say nearly impossible... I would say close is good enough when it comes to finding the bottom.... Pick your price and live with it... I am hoping for more flat or declining prices over the summer before I get in... Mostly due to incoming funds not in any attempt to time... I hate that I hate sitting on cash... :rolleyes2:

[blin10]

I like how you only reply when things go down... I asked you this 10 times now, what is a visible uptrend?


I guess now you know your answer...... glad I haven't picked up shares yet. But if tomorrow's price action is good I might be more tempted. But I'd still wait for more of a visible uptrend to add to my position.

[donald]

With oil dropping and expecting to stay there why not play the reverse trade?Won't you likely have to wait a few quaters before the profits start rising again(cos)I'm looking in the other direction-Like Mullen or canadian helio-gas is getting cheap and revenue should be up because there business(transports,wheels,fleets,air)are so capital intense with oil costs,which is a positive-I was looking at these kind of compaines in the past few days-good divs.Anybody see the reverse?Atleast for a few quaters.Seems like everybody is into the oil stocks(the bottoming).....they will seesaw for awhile.to early.?

[Axcell]

I like how you only reply when things go down... I asked you this 10 times now, what is a visible uptrend?

Google is your best friend if you don't know what a visible upward trend is...

[blin10]

Google is your best friend if you don't know what a visible upward trend is...

if there was an actual visible upward trend everyone would be on a huge boat in the middle of Caribbean with 10 hot chicks drinking don and not on canadianmoneyforum... dude you killing me with this uptrend sh#t lol

[PMREdmonton]

If oil drops more this share price can go down even more.

For a long-term holder, you will do well at this entry price and can collect the dividends until it reverses. You probably can even collect more income if you sell some covered calls which will give some protection in a downward market as your calls will decrease in value and can be bought back whereupon you can sell another call at a lower value. This would be one way to play some of the volatility here.

In general, I'm not in favor of buying puts to hedge. However, another way to play this with puts is to sell slightly out of the money puts at a price you are comfortable with. If the share price declines and puts you in the money you can try to roll the put forward in time. I think the value is solidly there so you could even choose to accept the put and then collect dividends and sell calls. Of course, vanilla buy and hold is also perfectly fine for this company IMO. They have decades of oil production with no exploration risk.

[PMREdmonton]

Some people use different ones to describe what a true uptrend is.

One definition that I have liked is when the 50-day SMA stops declining. If you want to think in shorter time frames than you could use the 20-day SMA but you will be more prone to catching stocks that are just having short-term bounces before another leg down.

I would always just suggest focusing on the company and deciding when they are well valued based. There is a clear projected income stream for COS as well as long-term targets for oil price and oil extraction costs. The fundamentals of oil production suggest an overall increasing price as the emerging markets continue to grow their demand for oil while new supply is mostly in the form of expensive unconventional sources - deep water drilling, oil shales, oil sands and now the arctic sea. All these new plays are expensive to explore and drill so you need a high cost for a barrel to generate the interest in exploration from the oil companies.

IMO, sub-$80 barrels of oil cannot persist for long as exploration will dry up and there will be a shortfall in production. The demand for oil is still very inelastic in the short-term.

[jtc]

Any thoughts on this one? I bought last year at 22.15 its been pretty much tanking since(although paying a nice dividend along the way). Had a nice recovery this week. After dividends, I'm now up about 1% since purchased, but I've seen this sucker drop more times than I care to recall.

Is it dead money for the next few years? Or should I continue to hold since it like looks like the keystone pipeline will go through?

[dubmac]

Any thoughts on this one? I bought last year at 22.15 its been pretty much tanking since(although paying a nice dividend along the way). Had a nice recovery this week. After dividends, I'm now up about 1% since purchased, but I've seen this sucker drop more times than I care to recall.

Is it dead money for the next few years? Or should I continue to hold since it like looks like the keystone pipeline will go through?

I have shares & I'm holding
it's been a bit of a disappointment - but - at least it cranks out a good dividend.